Could This Work re: Covid Herd Immunity?

[easypeasy]

Someone in another post posted a link to this article: https://www.israel21c.org/covid-pandemic-may-be-nearing-end-suggest-experts/

The article suggests that, since Omicron is SO contagious that it could, theoretically, lead to herd immunity since it will infect SO many people at the same time.

Quote

"Moreover, said Granot, “because it’s very infectious, a lot of people will get infected but they’ll have a runny nose and maybe fever for a couple of days and then go back to their normal lives. When this happens, the vast majority is infected and gets over it and develops true herd immunity."

Could this be true??? Dare we hope?

[popmom]

I dare to hope with you!
 

Some people cope better by only considering worst case scenarios (I get that—it has its place, and I’ve been there) but I definitely cope better nowadays as an optimist. 🙂 

Edited December 30, 2021 by popmom

[Murphy101]

It could be but it would much matter?

We have all kinds of herd immunity to many flu mutations. But there’s always a new flu mutation every year or more. And some wete horrific over the years before the herd that survives was immune.

I suspect covid will be much the same. Even if we have a vast majority of herd immunity to this variation, it doesn’t mean another variation at some point won’t be much worse.

I think vaccines help to reduce the damage of bad strains.

I think we need to our collective national crap together and deal with the medical and other social policy short-comings so that we are much better able to handle whatever nature or human throw next. 

[easypeasy]

53 minutes ago, Murphy101 said:

I suspect covid will be much the same. Even if we have a vast majority of herd immunity to this variation, it doesn’t mean another variation at some point won’t be much worse.

 

But, it also doesn't mean that another variation WILL be worse.

There have been many flu variations, yes - but none of them have ever really affected many people I know. (I know they've affected many other people in very real ways - I'm just saying it's been a much smaller percentage of the world and left many people untouched whereas Covid has surely affected every single human being on the planet at this point).

Seems that Covid could be relegated to that at some point. Affecting a percentage of the population but never racing 'round the globe.

I agree that vaccinations are a huge and necessary part of the equation. But, I'm pretty sure the article mentions that? That the vaccinations make it so that people can survive the Covid now, making it easier to reach herd immunity because people are catching it without dying at such a rate, thus living to have some immunity built up?

[easypeasy]

1 hour ago, popmom said:

I dare to hope with you!
 

Some people cope better by only considering worst case scenarios (I get that—it has its place, and I’ve been there) but I definitely cope better nowadays as an optimist. 🙂 

Me too. I've got to find a silver lining somewhere because these past couple of years have sucked!

[Katy]

No. Herd immunity is impossible because the virus mutates too fast. 

[Ausmumof3]

I hope so. I also hope our planning people don’t decide to act that way until they’re 100pc sure. Hope for the best prepare for the worst.

[Corraleno]

I feel like the media are conflating the concepts of herd immunity and endemicity. The concept of "herd immunity" makes sense when talking about diseases that don't mutate much and where vaccines provide long lasting protection, like measles or polio, but it really doesn't mean much in reference to a rapidly-mutating, soon-to-be-endemic virus for which vaccines and prior infection only provide partial and temporary protection. What the doctor in that article is really saying is that if omicron is so contagious that 90-95% of the population gets exposed to it in a fairly short period of time, then it will burn out and the other 5-10% who didn't get it will be protected from omicron by herd immunity. That doesn't mean there might not be a new variant next summer that evades the protection gained from infection with omicron, just as omicron evades protection gained from infection with delta. There will almost certainly be new strains of covid every year just like there are of flu. The rate of hospitalization and death will go down as more and more people acquire partial, temporary protection from previous infection and vaccines, but there will never be true herd immunity to covid any more than there will be herd immunity to flu. 

[Pam in CT]

We can always hope, but at this point, it's essentially hoping for deliverance via miraculous manna.

This virus has PROVED that it isn't stable like chicken pox. 

We can hope for a miracle, but hope is not a strategy.

 

It's time to move to the next set of public policy issues. Access to rapid-result quality testing and better masks. Ventilation, filtration, air exchange.  Finding ways to train new, and retain existing, HCWs. Developing ever-evolving (sigh) new treatments that desperately try to keep pace with new variants.  Financial support to hospitals. Overhaul of insurance at a national level. Programs to ensure folks at societal margins have access to tests & masks & vaccines & treatment. And etc.

[Hyacinth]

How does the animal reservoir issue factor into the idea of herd immunity/endemicity?

[shawthorne44]

It means it can't be eliminated even if 100% of people both get it, and get as many shots as allowed.  

But, generally speaking new variants are less severe.   Look at the number of people that don't bother to get the flu shot.