Omicron anecdata?

[Not_a_Number]

Anyone know someone who has the Omicron variant? I'd be curious if we can gather some anecdata.

[catz]

Well, no but the first person who was identified with omicron in our state was widely interviewed.  He is 30.  He travelled from NYC.  He was boostered early in November.  He only tested because someone else in his travel group tested positive.  He was symptomatic less than 2 days and just thought he was tired from travel.  He did go to restaurants and do some group events unmasked.  

My take away was booster up kids!

[Not_a_Number]

7 minutes ago, FuzzyCatz said:

Well, no but the first person who was identified with omicron in our state was widely interviewed.  He is 30.  He travelled from NYC.  He was boostered early in November.  He only tested because someone else in his travel group tested positive.  He was symptomatic less than 2 days and just thought he was tired from travel.  He did go to restaurants and do some group events unmasked.  

My take away was booster up kids!

That we have, but it's been a while for us. 

[Katy]

No but thank you for posting.  I’m particularly interested in children who get it.

[Not_a_Number]

8 minutes ago, Katy said:

No but thank you for posting.  I’m particularly interested in children who get it.

I'm also very interested. 

[Farrar]

I think folks can safely assume that if you know someone who got Covid in the last week, it was probably Omicron. I secondhand know of several cases, but all sound super mild. Definitely just a "flu" not a "omg is this flu going to kill me!?!?" flu.

Right now, in my pretty well vaxxed city, cases went insane. Through the roof insane. But hospitalizations are still not way up. They were going down, but looks to be trending up, just not anywhere near at the same rate as cases. The real test will be in a week. Which is Christmas. Oy.

Edited December 18, 2021 by Farrar

[Jean in Newcastle]

9 minutes ago, Farrar said:

I think folks can safely assume that if you know someone who got Covid in the last week, it was probably Omicron. I secondhand know of several cases, but all sound super mild. Definitely just a "flu" not a "omg is this flu going to kill me!?!?" flu.

Right now, in my pretty well vaxxed city, cases went insane. Through the roof insane. But hospitalizations are still not way up. They were going down, but looks to be trending up, just not anywhere near at the same rate as cases. The real test will be in a week. Which is Christmas. Oy.

Yes.  I just looked at our (large) county Covid dashboard.  Covid cases are up 36% in the past week.  But hospitalizations are down 6%  and deaths are down 38%.  (Now this is too new to know if the trend will hold or not but I see this as promising.) I should note though that 85.6% are fully vaccinated in my county.  The trends might be very different in a mostly unvaccinated area.

Edited December 18, 2021 by Jean in Newcastle

[Not_a_Number]

26 minutes ago, Farrar said:

I think folks can safely assume that if you know someone who got Covid in the last week, it was probably Omicron. I secondhand know of several cases, but all sound super mild. Definitely just a "flu" not a "omg is this flu going to kill me!?!?" flu.

Right now, in my pretty well vaxxed city, cases went insane. Through the roof insane. But hospitalizations are still not way up. They were going down, but looks to be trending up, just not anywhere near at the same rate as cases. The real test will be in a week. Which is Christmas. Oy.

Interesting. That's hopeful. How mild are we talking? Are people boostered? 

[Farrar]

34 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Interesting. That's hopeful. How mild are we talking? Are people boostered? 

Kid cases in the show dh was in led to the show being canceled. Kids are fine. Sick, tested positive, very mild from all reports - dh is in charge of the kids, so he checked in with the mom. Older teen and young adult cases among ds's peers. All very mild. At least one found through routine testing and not through symptoms. So... pretty darn mild. All vaccinated, not sure about boostered, though obviously the kids in the cast were not - they're not eligible. And I doubt the 16-17 yos are either. One ds in my house is boosted and the other is not yet. It's so recently approved. He'll go to the walk up clinic the next time it's within walking distance, which is Tuesday (they take Sunday-Monday off and he couldn't do it today). Not sure about the young adults. 

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Farrar said:

Kid cases in the show dh was in led to the show being canceled. Kids are fine. Sick, tested positive, very mild from all reports - dh is in charge of the kids, so he checked in with the mom. Older teen and young adult cases among ds's peers. All very mild. At least one found through routine testing and not through symptoms. So... pretty darn mild. All vaccinated, not sure about boostered, though obviously the kids in the cast were not - they're not eligible. And I doubt the 16-17 yos are either. One ds in my house is boosted and the other is not yet. It's so recently approved. He'll go to the walk up clinic the next time it's within walking distance, which is Tuesday (they take Sunday-Monday off and he couldn't do it today). Not sure about the young adults. 

Those might be Delta, though? Omicron hasn't taken over, I don't think. 

[Farrar]

Just now, Not_a_Number said:

Those might be Delta, though? Omicron hasn't taken over, I don't think. 

It's possible. But these are new infections this past week and data here has about half the cases in samples as Omicron, so I think it's actually a pretty high chance. The crazy case numbers here from the last two days MUST be majority Omicron. I can't imagine it's anything else, honestly.

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, Farrar said:

It's possible. But these are new infections this past week and data here has about half the cases in samples as Omicron, so I think it's actually a pretty high chance. The crazy case numbers here from the last two days MUST be majority Omicron. I can't imagine it's anything else, honestly.

True. 

I'm really antsy waiting for data right now. I want to see how this does in older people. I want data out of the UK. 

[Farrar]

1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

True. 

I'm really antsy waiting for data right now. I want to see how this does in older people. I want data out of the UK. 

We're going to all have a lot of data really soon. I mean, we smashed our case numbers and more than doubled our record and it happened exponentially quickly. Like, much faster than any other surge.

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, Farrar said:

We're going to all have a lot of data really soon. I mean, we smashed our case numbers and more than doubled our record and it happened exponentially quickly. Like, much faster than any other surge.

They were all exponential, just with a different base 😉 . 

But I'm not sure the crazy case numbers are actually penetrating into older populations much quicker. 

[KeriJ]

1 hour ago, Farrar said:

I think folks can safely assume that if you know someone who got Covid in the last week, it was probably Omicron. I secondhand know of several cases, but all sound super mild. Definitely just a "flu" not a "omg is this flu going to kill me!?!?" flu.

Right now, in my pretty well vaxxed city, cases went insane. Through the roof insane. But hospitalizations are still not way up. They were going down, but looks to be trending up, just not anywhere near at the same rate as cases. The real test will be in a week. Which is Christmas. Oy.

If your first statement is true,  then it's possible we have it. Dh and I are fully vaccinated.  And cases in our little town had been extremely low lately before a quick spike in our community. So if I had to guess, I would say we have it.

My 12 year old woke up one morning with a fever and immediately tested positive on a home test. We quickly isolated her. Two days later,  my youngest started feeling weird and tested positive.  We tried hard to stop the spread in the house by separating as much as possible. Four days later, 3 more of us tested positive.

So far, we've all had the exact same progression of symptoms: 24 hours of fever, briefly high at times. Some body aches. Then mostly nasal congestion.  Loss of smell around day 3. Everyone was feeling mostly normal by day 4. The first one to get sick had no symptoms and a negative test by day 10.

As far as vaccination status: the 9 and 12 year olds were not vaccinated.  The 14 and 16 year olds had one dose of Pfizer.  I had 2 doses of Moderna.  Dh had 2 doses of Moderna but has yet to get sick and continually tests negative.  He is isolated from the rest of us, but was exposed as much of the rest of us at the beginning. 

Edited December 18, 2021 by KeriJ

[Not_a_Number]

5 minutes ago, KeriJ said:

And cases in our little town had been extremely low lately before a quick spike in our community.

Is it continuing to go up? 

[KeriJ]

Just now, Not_a_Number said:

Is it continuing to go up? 

It's difficult to get information so far.  We're really tiny. But it was a little outbreak in a theater group.  Spike was probably the wrong word. We just hadn't heard of any cases in a long time. And we had been through the Delta wave earlier. 

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, KeriJ said:

It's difficult to get information so far.  We're really tiny. But it was a little outbreak in a theater group.  Spike was probably the wrong word. We just hadn't heard of any cases in a long time. And we had been through the Delta wave earlier. 

Omicron spreads really fast, so if it didn't keep going, it's probably not that. 

[KeriJ]

I will say that it was interesting to me that my fully vaccinated self, half vaccinated teens, and non vaccinated children all had the same exact level of severity.  I  thought maybe there would be more of a difference. 

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, KeriJ said:

I will say that it was interesting to me that my fully vaccinated self, half vaccinated teens, and non vaccinated children all had the same exact level of severity.  I  thought maybe there would be more of a difference. 

Well, it's worse for older people anyway. So maybe it balanced. 

[KeriJ]

6 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Omicron spreads really fast, so if it didn't keep going, it's probably not that. 

I should also probably mention, that it being a small town, I know of many who were sick and doubt they bothered to test. Which is why it's hard to get accurate information here.

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, KeriJ said:

I should also probably mention, that it being a small town, I know of many who were sick and doubt they bothered to test. Which is why it's hard to get accurate information here.

Ah, interesting. Makes sense. Anyone get too sick? 

[Hilltopmom]

My kid tested positive this week but our area isn’t reporting which Variant. Huge spike in numbers in last 2 weeks though.

He had to have gotten it at school- none of us are doing any other activities. He’s the only one to test positive in our family so far. Fever for one day, sore throat, says everything tastes bad. Was in between first and second Pfizer dose.

 

Edited December 18, 2021 by Hilltopmom

[KeriJ]

Just now, Not_a_Number said:

Ah, interesting. Makes sense. Anyone get too sick? 

I know one little boy was briefly hospitalized but has bounced back quickly.  Not covid confirmed, but suspected by me. Everyone else has been mild from what I can tell.

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, Hilltopmom said:

My kid tested positive this week but our area isn’t reporting which Variant. Huge spike in numbers in last 2 weeks though.

He had to have gotten it at school- none of us are doing any other activities. He’s the only one to test positive in our family so far. Fever for one day, sore throat, says everything tastes bad. Was in between first and second Pfizer dose.

 

Is he on the mend? Sorry he got sick! 

[Hilltopmom]

1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

Is he on the mend? Sorry he got sick! 

Yes, he’s feeling fine now. Thank you!

Im glad we dodged it this long

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Hilltopmom said:

Yes, he’s feeling fine now. Thank you!

Im glad we dodged it this long

I'm glad! I hope no one else gets it and if they do, they don't get too sick. 

[Halftime Hope]

CEO of @FlowHealth (testing company) said 80% of their positive tests nationwide (large cities) are 80% S gene dropouts, which means that Omicron is now dominant.  Similar data from UWa yesterday:  more than 50%.

[Melissa in Australia]

43 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

True. 

I'm really antsy waiting for data right now. I want to see how this does in older people. I want data out of the UK. 

There will be data out of Australia very very soon. Like in a few days.  Particularly NSW. They have decided to go with let it rip and the jump in numbers in just 5 days is staggering. From 150 to just under 2500. They not only are letting it rip, but have dropped using masks, no longer doing QR check ins and as of today are not going to test for what variant. Just assuming it is mostly omicron 

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Halftime Hope said:

CEO of @FlowHealth (testing company) said 80% of their positive tests nationwide (large cities) are 80% S gene dropouts, which means that Omicron is now dominant.  Similar data from UWa yesterday:  more than 50%.

Whoa. I thought it wasn't dominant in the US yet?? 

[lewelma]

3 minutes ago, Melissa in Australia said:

There will be data out of Australia very very soon. Like in a few days.  Particularly NSW. They have decided to go with let it rip and the jump in numbers in just 5 days is staggering. From 150 to just under 2500. They not only are letting it rip, but have dropped using masks, no longer doing QR check ins and as of today are not going to test for what variant. Just assuming it is mostly omicron 

There is no way the NZ government is going to open the border to Australia on 15 Jan as planned. They should just say it now and give people some lead time. 

[Catwoman]

41 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Omicron spreads really fast, so if it didn't keep going, it's probably not that. 

But it did quickly spread through her household (except for her dh,) even though they were trying to be careful, while we heard about a lot of people contracting Delta and other family members were spared. So I wouldn’t count out the possibility of it being Omicron.

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Catwoman said:

But it did quickly spread through her household (except for her dh,) even though they were trying to be careful, while we heard about a lot of people contracting Delta and other family members were spared. So I wouldn’t count out the possibility of it being Omicron.

True. 

[Catwoman]

Just now, Not_a_Number said:

True. 

Admittedly, part of my reasoning is that I desperately want to believe that Omicron will be much milder than the other variants, so if someone reports that their family had mild illness, I’m hoping it was Omicron!

[wathe]

30 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Whoa. I thought it wasn't dominant in the US yet?? 

I think it probably is.  It's at least 50% of cases here, PHO estimated the true number is more like 80% - or was, as that report is now a few days old.

I think that sequencing and variant reporting is lagging reality.  My own public health unit is overwhelmed.  They have posted that data entry is lagging - even just for raw case numbers, never mind VOC reporting

I'n not convinced that it's less severe than delta.  It might (probably does) cause milder illness in those who have immune experience (vaxed or previously infected), and since they comprise about 80% of our population, it might look milder on a population level.  It's contagious enough though that it's going to find all the unvaccinated people, and IME so far, we are seeing them get just as sick as with previous variants.  And unfortunately, because it's so contagious, it's going to find them all AT THE SAME TIME.  That's the real issue.  We've seen an uptick in covid presentations in the ED in the past 2 days.  I think official hospitalizations numbers are going to start rising within the next few days.

Edited December 18, 2021 by wathe

[Not_a_Number]

2 minutes ago, wathe said:

I'n not convinced that it's less severe than delta.  It might (probably does) cause milder illness in those who have immune experience (vaxed or previously infected), and since they comprise about 80% of our population, it might look milder on a population level.  It's contagious enough though that it's going to find all the unvaccinated people, and IME so far, we are seeing them get just as sick as with previous variants.  And unfortunately, because it's so contagious, it's going to find them all AT THE SAME TIME.  That's the real issue.  We've seen an uptick in covid presentations in the ED in the past 2 days.  I think official hospitalizations numbers are going to start rising within the next few days.

Oh, geez. 

I was verifying with the previous waves, and deaths took a whiiile to rise after cases. Like a month, since it takes a while to find the vulnerable, then takes a while to make them sick enough. 

That's worrisome that your firsthand experience is that it's not better. Of course, I guess you can't tell what fraction of the infected are showing up at the hospital, right? Is the fact that the ones who show up are just as sick representative, you think? (I really don't have an intuition about this yet. So I'm not arguing, just wondering.) 

[wathe]

11 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Oh, geez. 

I was verifying with the previous waves, and deaths took a whiiile to rise after cases. Like a month, since it takes a while to find the vulnerable, then takes a while to make them sick enough. 

That's worrisome that your firsthand experience is that it's not better. Of course, I guess you can't tell what fraction of the infected are showing up at the hospital, right? Is the fact that the ones who show up are just as sick representative, you think? (I really don't have an intuition about this yet. So I'm not arguing, just wondering.) 

There's no way to know.  We won't know until we have data, and we know that hospitalization and death are lagging indicators - the data doesn't exist yet.

The sickest ones are unvaccinated, or under-vaccinated plus other vulnerability (no third dose plus immune compromise, active cancer treatment,  frailty etc)

[wathe]

This is my worry with Omicron:

It's so contagious that, from a health care system capacity point of view,  it doesn't even matter if it's milder.

Our new case curve is almost vertical right now.

Enormous numbers of people will have active covid all at the same time, and even more enormous numbers of people will be close contacts of active cases.

We are already understaffed and s very tired.  Health care systems are at risk of collapse from lack of staff alone.  If significant numbers are out sick (even if mild) or quarantining all at once, we will be in very big trouble.  

Same goes for all other critical systems in our society". police forces, fire, EMS, grocery, transport, everything.  

 

Edited December 18, 2021 by wathe

[wathe]

On an happier note, we finally have revised PPE guidance for Ontario hospitals.  N95 for active covid and suspected covid care.  Hallelujah.

Thought we still won't officially call it airborne.  We've made up a new IPAC category called "enhanced droplet/contact". Which is nonsense, of course, but gets us N95s.  So it will do.

And the ventilation in my hospital is excellent.  I've been checking.

[Not_a_Number]

19 minutes ago, wathe said:

On an happier note, we finally have revised PPE guidance for Ontario hospitals.  N95 for active covid and suspected covid care.  Hallelujah.

Thought we still won't officially call it airborne.  We've made up a new IPAC category called "enhanced droplet/contact". Which is nonsense, of course, but gets us N95s.  So it will do.

And the ventilation in my hospital is excellent.  I've been checking.

Phew. I'm really glad. 

[Not_a_Number]

23 minutes ago, wathe said:

This is my worry with Omicron:

It's so contagious that, from a health care system capacity point of view,  it doesn't even matter if it's milder.

Our new case curve is almost vertical right now.

Enormous numbers of people will have active covid all at the same time, and even more enormous numbers of people will be close contacts of active cases.

We are already understaffed and s very tired.  Health care systems are at risk of collapse from lack of staff alone.  If significant numbers are out sick (even if mild) or quarantining all at once, we will be in very big trouble.  

Same goes for all other critical systems in our society". police forces, fire, EMS, grocery, transport, everything.  

 

Yeah, I worry about this, too 😞. 

[Ottakee]

1 hour ago, wathe said:

This is my worry with Omicron:

It's so contagious that, from a health care system capacity point of view,  it doesn't even matter if it's milder.

Our new case curve is almost vertical right now.

Enormous numbers of people will have active covid all at the same time, and even more enormous numbers of people will be close contacts of active cases.

We are already understaffed and s very tired.  Health care systems are at risk of collapse from lack of staff alone.  If significant numbers are out sick (even if mild) or quarantining all at once, we will be in very big trouble.  

Same goes for all other critical systems in our society". police forces, fire, EMS, grocery, transport, everything.  

 

Same here.  My area of West Michigan had Delta surging with 27+% positivity rates on testing and sooo many people not testing (mostly those unvaccinated but with symptoms and known exposure).   Our hospitals are at 98-100% capacity, ERs are swamped, and burn out is high.   One system locally has 0% vaccinated on vents, another is only 5% of COVID positive on vents....out of 100s of patients   We are seeing serious cases and deaths in the 30-60 year old range as higher % of the elderly are vaccinated but lower vaccination rates for younger and middle age.

I didn't know that West Michigan and northern Michigan can handle increases in serious cases.

[livetoread]

Washington Post has a sobering article out of Denmark that makes similar points to Wathe - that even if it's milder, their healthcare system will get slammed even under moderate models. One sentence made me want to quit reading - "Denmark’s data shows people with two doses to be just as vulnerable to omicron infection as the unvaccinated. "

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/18/omicron-variant-denmark/

[TexasProud]

4 minutes ago, livetoread said:

Washington Post has a sobering article out of Denmark that makes similar points to Wathe - that even if it's milder, their healthcare system will get slammed even under moderate models. One sentence made me want to quit reading - "Denmark’s data shows people with two doses to be just as vulnerable to omicron infection as the unvaccinated. "

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/18/omicron-variant-denmark/

😢😢😢😢😢

[wathe]

10 minutes ago, livetoread said:

Washington Post has a sobering article out of Denmark that makes similar points to Wathe - that even if it's milder, their healthcare system will get slammed even under moderate models. One sentence made me want to quit reading - "Denmark’s data shows people with two doses to be just as vulnerable to omicron infection as the unvaccinated. "

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/18/omicron-variant-denmark/

Yes.  Our Science Advisory Table has been following peer nations who are ahead of us (UK, Denmark and others).  Their predictions are grim.

[thewellerman]

I keep reading that boosters are necessary, but what if someone has recently completed the original series?  Do they still need the booster to protect them from Omicron?

[Not_a_Number]

10 minutes ago, thewellerman said:

I keep reading that boosters are necessary, but what if someone has recently completed the original series?  Do they still need the booster to protect them from Omicron?

Yeah, I think so. It's just a somewhat different immune response. 

[thewellerman]

4 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Yeah, I think so. It's just a somewhat different immune response. 

Ok, that is what I thought I understood, too.

[ScoutTN]

4 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Those might be Delta, though? Omicron hasn't taken over, I don't think. 

There has only been one case of Omicron in my city. How long does it take to replace Delta and what difference does it make?

[Not_a_Number]

8 minutes ago, ScoutTN said:

There has only been one case of Omicron in my city. How long does it take to replace Delta and what difference does it make?

One case that's been reported, anyway... 

It doesn't seem to take very long to spread. I don't know if it actually replaces Delta, though, since immunity for one doesn't protect you much from the other. They just circulate together, yay....