Atlantic article asks what are we trying to achieve re: COVID?

[Hyacinth]

I thought this Atlantic article was an interesting read describing how people often talk past each other when discussing whether this policy or that mandate "works." First we have to define the goal. Thoughts?

[EmilyGF]

I commented on this article in a different thread. 

I think lack of agreed-upon goals contributes to COVID fatigue. If someone believes goalposts will her moved, they stop even trying, whether it is an adult dealing with a pandemic or a child who is given extra work for finishing an assignment early.

Emily

[Hyacinth]

Just now, EmilyGF said:

I commented on this article in a different thread. 

I think lack of agreed-upon goals contributes to COVID fatigue. If someone believes goalposts will her moved, they stop even trying, whether it is an adult dealing with a pandemic or a child who is given extra work for finishing an assignment early.

Emily

I didn't realize the article had already been posted. (Lots of COVID threads around here 🙂.)

[EmilyGF]

2 minutes ago, Hyacinth said:

I didn't realize the article had already been posted. (Lots of COVID threads around here 🙂.)

This article deserves to be discussed on its own.

[prairiewindmomma]

It’s difficult to have measured goals when all of the parties to the decision making don’t agree that there is even a problem.

I am sitting here in a waiting room of a lab for some routine blood work. I have been told there is at least a two hour wait. No one is allowed to accompany the patient and the majority of people here are not native English speakers who are older and usually have a kid translate for them so lots of confusion going on. There is a long list of tests they are currently out of including rapid and pcr covid tests because they ran out of test kits. 
 

If you just look at new case numbers, we are doing ok, but clearly some things are still really broken. 

[Laura Corin]

27 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

 

If you just look at new case numbers, we are doing ok, but clearly some things are still really broken. 

The UK case rate is enormously high.  But it's difficult to compare: are we testing so much because people are getting sick, or are we testing so much because each resident can get two free LFTs per week and that has become the norm?  I test weekly before I go to see my mum.  And because we are testing so much, is that why our case rate seems much higher?  This graph only shows registered tests, I assume - there's no compulsion to register unless you need to prove your status to someone.  ETA: more graphs.

 

Edited November 5, 2021 by Laura Corin

[frogger]

The problem is that we aren't the Borg so we probably all have different goals. I thought the original goal was to not overwhelm hospitals.

We succeeded last winter. We failed to do that this fall, at least in my state.

I think a lot of people didn't understand to not overwhelm hospitals requires being proactive. They want to wait until all hell breaks loose and then MAYBE they will help. If they feel like it.

The other problem is a collective action problem. I think more and more people came to realize that this bug was unlikely to kill them and so they quit caring. In my area it felt hopeless to restrict yourself and make big sacrifices for others when no one else did anything. My actions alone could do nothing to keep hospitals from being overwhelmed. We quit visiting all my unvaccinated parents but we knew they were more likely to get it from their other big groups rather than vaccinated/masking grandchildren and they did. Well, most of them. 

Edited November 5, 2021 by frogger
Added "in my area"

[prairiewindmomma]

Here there are no free tests.

I cannot buy Binax tests in stores because they have been sold out. Occasionally I can order them from online.

The only way to access tests is through medical offices and labs. My doctor’s office doesn’t do testing—-and my point is that I am here at a feeder test site and there is nothing.

In a way, I am glad. I am immunocompromised and at least none of the people here in the wait room are coughing.

I dream of easy access to testing.

[Dmmetler]

What I'm personally trying to accomplish? 

 

Keep myself and my family alive and healthy, and keep my students healthy to the extent it is under my control. Which is why we're still wearing masks in lessons, why the Winter recital is this coming weekend and will be outdoors, or, if it's raining, in the gym with the doors flung open, including the big double doors, so we'll have lots of airflow. Next semester, when my students will hopefully be vaccinated, I'm thinking that masking being optional will be reasonable IF numbers in my area are reasonable, and IF the local schools have dropped masking, because I want to keep things as consistent for the students as possible.  If our numbers in the area are low and the vaccination rate is high enough, I might drop masking once we get past the holidays-or I might not. There are definitely some benefits for me during allergy and cold and flu seasons, even if COVID becomes a non-issue. 

 

I don't know when, or if, I will return to indoor dining, movies, and similar things. 

 

[Faith-manor]

My goals are similar to Dmmelter, and as much as I find 750,000 people dead from this in this country appalling, I am even more deeply concerned for my family in terms of long covid, and heart damage to my precious grandson who already has a heart issue.

So keep my family as safe as I can reasonably manage, don't contribute to the overwhelm and demise of our already tragically fissured medical system, don't get a disease that might leave me unable to function, contribute to the public good.

I never thought we would exterminate covid. My hope had been to see it so heavily stamped down that if we had outbreaks, they would be small and easily contained. But that required the vast majority of the people to not be total asshats, and that clearly didn't happen, so here we are.

A good side effect is that I did not have my twice a year bout of laryngitis, did not get colds, did not have so many sinus issues and sore throats, etc. so I will probably mask and religiously disinfect hands when in public for the rest of my life. Dd is thinking of having our grandsons continue masks for, well, many years to come when indoors in public places like the supermarket. It is good for eldest because of his heart. The kids did not have any colds, flu, stomach bugs, tonsilitis, nothing in the last 18 months. How many people go that long with a 1 year old and a five year old and not have some bug go through the entire family? Masks and hand washing vigilance works. And yes, the little guy wears his tiny cloth mask like a trooper. The grownups in their area should take lessons from him!

[Teaching3bears]

The article talks about China and how they took a different approach by locking down so aggressively.  Is it because they have a different goal?  Do they value life more than us?  
I read the Europe and big parts of Asia are moving into another wave.  Won’t that go everywhere else with so much travel opened up?  I also read that they were finding many cases in deer and other animals and they are worried that the virus spreading to animals will allow it to mutate more easily.  

 

[EmilyGF]

The point of the article is that the US gov (CDC) needs to figure out what its goals are in order to set the tone and make it accomplishable. This is a public health issue; individual goals aren't at all what the article addresses.

From the article:

"But the level of COVID-19 risk we can live with is also not an entirely scientific question. It is a social and political one that involves balancing both the costs and benefits of restrictions and grappling with genuine pandemic fatigue among the public. China, for example, has been brutally effective at suppressing COVID cases with strict lockdowns: Residents are barred from leaving locked-down neighborhoods; planes, trains, buses, and taxis in and to locked-down cities are being suspended; even vaccinated travelers are subject to mandatory quarantine. But are we willing to go that far? Currently, no. "

In our household, DH was willing to do everything required to get his students back on campus (which requires getting rid of an indoor mask mandate; his students share offices and are required to mask in-office so they just don't come if there is an indoor mask mandate). Now that he see that our liberal state has adopted what seems like a masks-forever policy despite vaccinations in the 98%+ area among students and nearly that among staff, he sort of has lost all motivation to follow policies. We've got to set up goal posts and then live life. We're seeing too much secondary damage already in our neck-of-the-woods. With moving goal posts, he's decided he doesn't care anymore, because it seems like officials don't, either. 

Emily

[Arcadia]

33 minutes ago, Teaching3bears said:

The article talks about China and how they took a different approach by locking down so aggressively.  Is it because they have a different goal?  Do they value life more than us?  

Firstly, Winter Olympics is coming soon and they are the hosts. Secondly, their population is huge (India is the closest in population size), so the pandemic getting out of control is much more disastrous than US.
Thirdly, their goalposts didn’t change, their citizens knows that their govt wants to make sure the Beijing Winter Olympics 2022 goes smoothly. Recently their govt has asked them to stock up.
https://amp.france24.com/en/live-news/20211102-stock-up-china-says-amid-new-covid-outbreak

“Shanghai (AFP) – China's government has urged citizens to stock up on daily necessities and for authorities to take steps to ensure adequate food supplies as the country adopts increasingly tight measures to contain its latest Covid outbreak. 

A notice posted on the website of the Ministry of Commerce late on Monday urged "families to store a certain amount of daily necessities as needed to meet daily life and emergencies".

The directive made no mention of a food shortage or of whether the instructions were motivated by fears that Covid measures could disrupt supply chains or leave locked-down citizens in need of food.

But China, which has kept its infection numbers relatively low through a Covid-zero strategy of border closures, targeted lockdowns and long quarantine periods, is increasingly adopting tough measures to contain the latest outbreak, especially ahead of the Beijing Winter Olympics beginning on February 4.”

[Arcadia]

@EmilyGF I don’t know about here but back where I am from (SE Asia), there is vaccine fatigue. People have not expected to need a booster shot in 6 months, the Israel study results was a downer. They are now expecting a fourth booster soon because Israel is considering. Recently, vaccinated people has passed away and the govt there would report it as XX vaccinated people with underlying conditions passed. People are starting to feel that there is no end in sight and the only solution offered is booster shots. 

[regentrude]

24 minutes ago, EmilyGF said:

In our household, DH was willing to do everything required to get his students back on campus (which requires getting rid of an indoor mask mandate; his students share offices and are required to mask in-office so they just don't come if there is an indoor mask mandate). Now that he see that our liberal state has adopted what seems like a masks-forever policy despite vaccinations in the 98%+ area among students and nearly that among staff, he sort of has lost all motivation to follow policies. We've got to set up goal posts and then live life. We're seeing too much secondary damage already in our neck-of-the-woods. With moving goal posts, he's decided he doesn't care anymore, because it seems like officials don't, either. 

And I feel like our officials in a  very conservative state don't care either because our university has no vaccination mandate and no mask mandate and faculty are forced to teach in-person classes (the administration has explicitly forbidden us from converting to online) while the school does not have any measures in place to keep them safe. We're at the point of not caring anymore either because they're just willing to throw us under the bus and sacrifice health and well-being to a political climate.

Edited November 5, 2021 by regentrude

[frogger]

29 minutes ago, EmilyGF said:

The point of the article is that the US gov (CDC) needs to figure out what its goals are in order to set the tone and make it accomplishable. This is a public health issue; individual goals aren't at all what the article addresses.

From the article:

"But the level of COVID-19 risk we can live with is also not an entirely scientific question. It is a social and political one that involves balancing both the costs and benefits of restrictions and grappling with genuine pandemic fatigue among the public. China, for example, has been brutally effective at suppressing COVID cases with strict lockdowns: Residents are barred from leaving locked-down neighborhoods; planes, trains, buses, and taxis in and to locked-down cities are being suspended; even vaccinated travelers are subject to mandatory quarantine. But are we willing to go that far? Currently, no. "

In our household, DH was willing to do everything required to get his students back on campus (which requires getting rid of an indoor mask mandate; his students share offices and are required to mask in-office so they just don't come if there is an indoor mask mandate). Now that he see that our liberal state has adopted what seems like a masks-forever policy despite vaccinations in the 98%+ area among students and nearly that among staff, he sort of has lost all motivation to follow policies. We've got to set up goal posts and then live life. We're seeing too much secondary damage already in our neck-of-the-woods. With moving goal posts, he's decided he doesn't care anymore, because it seems like officials don't, either. 

Emily

This sounds nice but the government is made up of people. The people that are elected have the goal of being reelected. She did understand that those areas with the least vaccinated were also the least restrictive because of politics. That is how politics works.

 

I think it doesn't matter at a Federal level. I mean liberal states may be making decisions based on the CDC, in which case it might matter for people in that area, but obviously this isn't true nationwide. We just got a mask mandate again AFTER hospitals were swamped, so not even for the worst possible times are people willing to follow any restrictions. So it appears that the goal where I live is to live normal life no matter what and that is what my local and state government is doing. So we can talk about CDC or Federal policies but where I live, they are pretty irrelevant. 

 

 

[kbutton]

2 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

I cannot buy Binax tests in stores because they have been sold out. Occasionally I can order them from online.

It's like that here, and I think it's because so many people don't want their cases counted. I don't mind mine counted, but if I am just being extra cautious about some symptomology and have no known exposure, it make sense to do a Binax and then follow up with PCR if my symptoms continue. 

Only one of us has tested this entire time, and it was negative--no known exposure, and it was probably just fighting off congestion that was trying to become a sinus infection. We had two tests on hand from an employer, so we used one. I wish we had it back because I am not sure we'll be able to get more.

[TCB]

Here’s my personal goal:

I do not want to pass Covid on to anyone and that informs my actions.

I have seen what it can do and I don’t want to be responsible for that. So far I have met this goal, despite working in a Covid rich environment and keeping robotics team meetings going throughout. I kind of find it hard to understand why most people can’t do something similar. I should add, though, that I don’t have kids in public school, and the kids on our robotics team are homeschooled, so that probably makes it a bit easier. I think personal responsibility could go a long way towards easing the pandemic.

[lewelma]

The goal here is to keep it contained until we can get to 90% double vaxed, which looks to be mid January. We still have half of the North Island and all of the South Island with elimination. But it is slowly, ever so slowly creeping south out of Auckland which is locked off of the rest of us. So the current goal is different than what comes mid January.

At 90% double vax, the goal is to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed. That is the clearly stated goal. We know we will have more deaths and likely a lot more as we only have 29 deaths in total so far. They have created the 'traffic light system' where there are no/few restrictions for vaccinated people at each level, and increasingly more restrictions for unvaxed. We will have a 'My Vaccine Pass' with a QR code linked to the National registry that will allow us to get into events, bars, restaurants, hair dressers, the gym, etc. If a region has more spread and the hospitals are getting full, that region will get a lot more restricted for unvaxed people, and just a bit more for vaccinated people. 

Here is the Covid protection framework that we will use. There are carrots for businesses choosing to use the Vaccine Pass and obviously for people to get vaccinated so they can actually do stuff. 

https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/COVID-19-Protection-Framework/COVID-19-Protection-Framework-22-October-2021.pdf

Edited November 5, 2021 by lewelma

[Laura Corin]

19 minutes ago, lewelma said:

The goal here is to keep it contained until we can get to 90% double vaxed, which looks to be mid January. We still have half of the North Island and all of the South Island with elimination. But it is slowly, ever so slowly creeping south out of Auckland which is locked off of the rest of us. So the current goal is different than what comes mid January.

At 90% double vax, the goal is to keep the hospitals from being overwhelmed. That is the clearly stated goal. We know we will have more deaths and likely a lot more as we only have 29 deaths in total so far. They have created the 'traffic light system' where there are no/few restrictions for vaccinated people at each level, and increasingly more restrictions for unvaxed. We will have a 'My Vaccine Pass' with a QR code linked to the National registry that will allow us to get into events, bars, restaurants, hair dressers, the gym, etc. If a region has more spread and the hospitals are getting full, that region will get a lot more restricted for unvaxed people, and just a bit more for vaccinated people. 

Here is the Covid protection framework that we will use. There are carrots for businesses choosing to use the Vaccine Pass and obviously for people to get vaccinated so they can actually do stuff. 

https://covid19.govt.nz/assets/COVID-19-Protection-Framework/COVID-19-Protection-Framework-22-October-2021.pdf

We are at 92 percent over 16s single vaxed with about 86 percent double, so getting there and working on youngers. Yes, to avoid hospital overwhelm. We still have a mask mandate for most indoor public places and vaccine passport for night clubs etc.

[ktgrok]

2 hours ago, Faith-manor said:

. My hope had been to see it so heavily stamped down that if we had outbreaks, they would be small and easily contained. But that required the vast majority of the people to not be total asshats, and that clearly didn't happen, so here we are.

 

This had me cracking up, thank you. One of those, "you have to laugh so you don't cry" type moments, lol. 

[lewelma]

18 minutes ago, Laura Corin said:

We are at 92 percent over 16s single vaxed with about 86 percent double, so getting there and working on youngers. Yes, to avoid hospital overwhelm. We still have a mask mandate for most indoor public places and vaccine passport for night clubs etc.

Those are good numbers! We are counting from 12+. We won't open up until the percent from each of the 20 regions is over 90%, not the whole country. So we can't just have Auckland, Wellington, and Christchurch get to 95% and carry the country over 90% because of their larger population size. This is making the target much harder to achieve, because the poor, rural areas have lower vax rates.  They are currently going door to door quite literally. 

When we 'open up', this means that Aucklanders can leave Auckland, and the big events can resume throughout the country. There are not a whole lot of restrictions for the rest of us right now except indoor mask use and events under 100 (including bars and churches). We still have no covid. They will also 'open up' for kiwis to return home without going into the managed quarantine. They have not yet discussed the plans for tourism resuming. Definitely double vaxed and pre-flight test, but when this happens and how they confirm that the vax card has not been forged, I don't know.  

Edited November 5, 2021 by lewelma

[Tenaj]

1 hour ago, kbutton said:

It's like that here, and I think it's because so many people don't want their cases counted. I don't mind mine counted, but if I am just being extra cautious about some symptomology and have no known exposure, it make sense to do a Binax and then follow up with PCR if my symptoms continue. 

Only one of us has tested this entire time, and it was negative--no known exposure, and it was probably just fighting off congestion that was trying to become a sinus infection. We had two tests on hand from an employer, so we used one. I wish we had it back because I am not sure we'll be able to get more.

Have you checked your libraries.  Ohio has a program that is supplying libraries with Covid tests that are distributed free for the asking.  At least I thought it was a state program - maybe I'm mistaken and it is at the county level?  Our family has taken advantage of this several times.

 

[kbutton]

12 minutes ago, Tenaj said:

Have you checked your libraries.  Ohio has a program that is supplying libraries with Covid tests that are distributed free for the asking.  At least I thought it was a state program - maybe I'm mistaken and it is at the county level?  Our family has taken advantage of this several times.

 

I will try a library if I need one. Our local library doesn't participate, but I think you can find out online who does. Last I knew, they were pressed for testing, but maybe it's better--that was during the latest worst spike, I think.