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Afghanistan question - no partisan politics


Melissa Louise
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from the BBC 

 

As the US evacuate members of staff from its embassy in Kabul, comparisons are being made with the way the Americans left Vietnam in the final act of the war there.

That was another protracted US military campaign which ended in defeat and came to a hasty conclusion in 1975, with the fall of Saigon (now Ho Chi Minh City).

The last Americans and many South Vietnamese were evacuated by helicopter from the roof of the US embassy.

"Comparisons with Vietnam abound," financial analyst Tim Ash told Reuters news agency, "with that feeling of a Saigon moment and the last US helicopter out.

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1 hour ago, Melissa Louise said:

The Taliban are on the outskirts of Kabul.

My question is, why have they been able to retake so much of the country, so quickly? 

I just listened to some Aljazeera they basically said that the retake of so much country has happened so quickly because each provincial area has negotiated a peaceful surrender, and Kabul is in negotiations right now 

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29 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I have been wanting to talk about this but not knowing how?  Is it because the majority support them? Is it because they are more militarised than everyone else?  Is it fear factor?

Is there anyway this doesn’t end up a disaster?

Yeah, I don't know much about it. Curious to hear if there's anyone here who has a handle on it. 

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2 hours ago, Melissa in Australia said:

from the BBC 

 

As the US evacuate members of staff from its embassy in Kabul, comparisons are being made with the way the Americans left Vietnam in the final act of the war there.

That was another protracted US military campaign which ended in defeat and came to a hasty conclusion in 1975, with the fall of Saigon (now Ho Chi Minh City).

The last Americans and many South Vietnamese were evacuated by helicopter from the roof of the US embassy.

"Comparisons with Vietnam abound," financial analyst Tim Ash told Reuters news agency, "with that feeling of a Saigon moment and the last US helicopter out.

That is what I have been thinking about since Monday.  I keep having crying spells over how many people will be killed.

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I thought we had already evacuated the staff who helped Aussies but apparently not.  There’s supposedly an evacuation mission happening now.

It seems like one of two things… either people really were deceived into thinking the Taliban would honour their agreements or US and allies are in a weak enough position globally that they need to do a rushed withdrawal due to other needs/threats.

I don’t know much about Stuart McCarthy and his politics but the letter he wrote was pretty scathing.  He burned his medal.

 

Edited by Ausmumof3
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I think they were willing to take our money and our military hardware for as long as we were willing to give it to them, and they were willing to jump through the hoops to get it, but in the end, not enough supported anti-Taliban thinking to do the hard work necessary to fight it. It's not just about being willing to stand and fight - they have to be willing to do all the necessary logistics and behind the scenes work to maintain a coordinated military (like feed them regularly). I think there was a lot of corruption and a lot who signed up for a paycheck, and when push came to shove, they weren't invested enough to fight back. I don't know if a lot are pro Taliban so much as not anti, and the cost for being anti is too high right now. I do feel terrible for the women and girls who had some hope only to have it snatched away, but I don't think that's mostly our fault. It's mostly the fault of the men in their country who don't support female rights enough. 

I also think that there were plenty of powerful people in our country who were happy to supply the military with all the hardware they were willing to buy, and plenty of people in our gov'ts who were fooling themselves by thinking things were going well because lots and lots of money was being made by their friends in the private sector by thinking that. I can't even imagine how much money the private industrial military complex made off this fiasco (and how many jobs are waiting in the same business for those in gov't/military when they leave).

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I think there's a lot of poverty in Afghanistan, and I've read that around 70% of the nation's population live in rural areas.  With the Taliban in control of resources like water and power, they are doomed.  I think practically speaking, they're thinking they have very few options other than to support the Taliban if they want to survive.

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5 hours ago, Melissa in Australia said:

from the BBC 

 

As the US evacuate members of staff from its embassy in Kabul, comparisons are being made with the way the Americans left Vietnam in the final act of the war there.

That was another protracted US military campaign which ended in defeat and came to a hasty conclusion in 1975, with the fall of Saigon (now Ho Chi Minh City).

The last Americans and many South Vietnamese were evacuated by helicopter from the roof of the US embassy.

"Comparisons with Vietnam abound," financial analyst Tim Ash told Reuters news agency, "with that feeling of a Saigon moment and the last US helicopter out.

I was only 10 years old in 1975 but that is exactly what I thought of yesterday when I heard the news.  

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4 hours ago, livetoread said:

 

I also think that there were plenty of powerful people in our country who were happy to supply the military with all the hardware they were willing to buy, and plenty of people in our gov'ts who were fooling themselves by thinking things were going well because lots and lots of money was being made by their friends in the private sector by thinking that. I can't even imagine how much money the private industrial military complex made off this fiasco (and how many jobs are waiting in the same business for those in gov't/military when they leave).

American taxpayers have spent almost 108 billion dollars on contracted services in Afghanistan. Why on earth did we  ever think we could actually "win"?  Our politicians on all sides of the aisle were certainly not thinking that way. This was and will still be a money making military industrial complex scheme. 

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1 hour ago, Idalou said:

American taxpayers have spent almost 108 billion dollars on contracted services in Afghanistan. Why on earth did we  ever think we could actually "win"?  Our politicians on all sides of the aisle were certainly not thinking that way. This was and will still be a money making military industrial complex scheme. 

Anyone who had studied the history of the Middle East knew this wasn't something we could win. Unfortunately, the people making decisions were not exactly experts on the topic. 

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Sadly, we (AU) have left some Afghan translators and families behind, because we didn't have a sense of urgency, apparently. And now there are no more commercial flights out of Kabul. 

I still don't have a handle on how so much money and effort was poured into building an Afghan army but it melted away? 

Feeling for Afghani girls and women this morning. 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Sadly, we (AU) have left some Afghan translators and families behind, because we didn't have a sense of urgency, apparently. And now there are no more commercial flights out of Kabul. 

I still don't have a handle on how so much money and effort was poured into building an Afghan army but it melted away? 

Feeling for Afghani girls and women this morning. 

 

 

In many cases they just switched sides, or went home because the job was too dangerous for not enough money. 

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We have friends who've lived in that country for the past decade. They've been home for most of the pandemic, but were set to return a couple of weeks ago. They had the foresight to delay entrance to the country and have ended up in a nearby country for the time being. They're so very concerned for their students (they have a girls school) and their coworkers. 

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12 minutes ago, alisoncooks said:

We have friends who've lived in that country for the past decade. They've been home for most of the pandemic, but were set to return a couple of weeks ago. They had the foresight to delay entrance to the country and have ended up in a nearby country for the time being. They're so very concerned for their students (they have a girls school) and their coworkers. 

I'm glad your friends are ok, but it must be horrible, knowing their co-workers and students are facing who knows what. 

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40 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

In many cases they just switched sides, or went home because the job was too dangerous for not enough money. 

I guess I can understand that, but how can 20 years of investment be so weak? 

I thought the last decade was nation building, but if that was just an easily broken facade, what was it? 

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57 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Sadly, we (AU) have left some Afghan translators and families behind, because we didn't have a sense of urgency, apparently. And now there are no more commercial flights out of Kabul. 

It's not the first time we've done that. 

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Part of the answer is definitely that this was a failure of the Biden administration and the US military leadership to pull out in a way that would allow for a slower transition. But we all knew this was coming. Like, sure, people thought they might have a few weeks or even longer, but... this was always about to happen. I don't think that's partisan (I'm a Biden supporter overall). That's just a straight up fact. 

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Just now, Farrar said:

Part of the answer is definitely that this was a failure of the Biden administration and the US military leadership to pull out in a way that would allow for a slower transition. But we all knew this was coming. Like, sure, people thought they might have a few weeks or even longer, but... this was always about to happen. I don't think that's partisan (I'm a Biden supporter overall). That's just a straight up fact. 

Ok, but I just didn't want ppl to start arguing about Biden/Trump. 

If it was always going to happen, why were we there for so long? I don't get it. 

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The translator thing has been breaking my heart. And the girls' schools. I mean... all of it.

John Oliver did a thing about the translators a few weeks ago where he was like, get them out right now. AFAIK, we did not. It's horrible. 

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1 minute ago, Melissa Louise said:

Ok, but I just didn't want ppl to start arguing about Biden/Trump. 

If it was always going to happen, why were we there for so long? I don't get it. 

Funneling money to military contractors with good lobbyists + sunk cost fallacy + no politician wanting to “own” the loss.

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It’s awful. When I saw the warning for any Americans to shelter in place and not to contact the embassy or go to the airport I could not imagine the terror. To be an American there as the Taliban takes over the city would just be terrifying. I cannot imagine. 

Of course not just Americans but all of the translators and journalists who are just stuck there waiting for help and there is no sign of it. The horror.

 

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The sense I am getting is that some Afghan officials were counting on Biden to reverse the deal Trump made. I don’t think they really thought we were going to leave and they were wholly unprepared to keep going when we did.  A lot of the money that we have spent over the last 2 decades has been mishandled and misspent by contractors who promised more than they could possibly hope to actually deliver.  Forces that fled to Kabul very recently are now going to face reprisals- as of today, the Taliban have Kabul too.  
 

“When the Kunduz province fell to the Taliban, so many soldiers were killed. We were surrounded,” said Abdul Qudus, a 29-year-old soldier who managed to make his way to Kabul in the past week. “There was no air support. In the last minutes, our commander told us that they cannot do anything for us and it’s just better to run away. Everyone left the war and escaped.”

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/afghanistan-army-collapse-taliban-11628958253

 

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People I love, including my brother in law, served in Afghanistan along with Aghani troops and translators. My BIL had a close friend who was killed in action there.   One of my coworkers has significant PTSD from Afghanistan to the point he can no longer work on an ambulance and stays in the office now.  He had to leave work today and just go home. 

This is an extremely difficult day for all of them.  I am grieving for so many lives lost, no matter the nationality, the translators, all those that the Taliban has and will execute, the women and girls who have had hope snatched away.   I am grieving. 

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People are no longer comfortable with the idea of some sort of "permanent outpost of the empire" thing happening, but realistically, it looks like that was going to be the only thing that ever worked here... either we stay in forever, or we leave and it collapses. I don't think people were actually happy with either option, but that's what they were... 

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54 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

I guess I can understand that, but how can 20 years of investment be so weak? 

I thought the last decade was nation building, but if that was just an easily broken facade, what was it? 

Nation building isn't something that can be just forced onto a country. It takes creating a court system, education, generations growing up with certain things in place. And this region of the world is in particular difficult to "take over" like we tried to do. Many have tried. 

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12 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Nation building isn't something that can be just forced onto a country. It takes creating a court system, education, generations growing up with certain things in place. And this region of the world is in particular difficult to "take over" like we tried to do. Many have tried. 

Not to mention the extremely thorough job of indoctrination the Taliban perform on their recruits. I'm not sure those guys could be any different now even if they knew how to want to be.

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25 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Nation building isn't something that can be just forced onto a country. It takes creating a court system, education, generations growing up with certain things in place. And this region of the world is in particular difficult to "take over" like we tried to do. Many have tried. 

So, post getting rid of All Quaeda, (sp?)it was all a con? 

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3 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

So, post getting rid of All Quaeda, (sp?)it was all a con? 

From the books I've read, written by foreign correspondents, there is a lot of Life is not Disney and who the "goodies" and "baddies" are is relative.

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19 minutes ago, Rosie_0801 said:

From the books I've read, written by foreign correspondents, there is a lot of Life is not Disney and who the "goodies" and "baddies" are is relative.

Allow girls to get an education = better.

Refuse girls an education = worse. 

I'm happy with that way of sorting goodies from baddies. 

 

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5 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Allow girls to get an education = better.

Refuse girls an education = worse. 

I'm happy with that way of sorting goodies from baddies. 

 

So am I.

But maybe if I'd been born in the boonies of Afghanistan I'd think

Taliban = bad

Foreigners= worse

 

We've got no power to fix this one, but next time I'm lending on Kiva, I'll be looking for Afghanis, particularly women, to support. 

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19 minutes ago, Rosie_0801 said:

So am I.

But maybe if I'd been born in the boonies of Afghanistan I'd think

Taliban = bad

Foreigners= worse

 

We've got no power to fix this one, but next time I'm lending on Kiva, I'll be looking for Afghanis, particularly women, to support. 

On the one hand, Kiva good. 

Otoh, how likely is it that under the Taliban women will be able to run businesses? 

Idk. It's a really upsetting day. 

 

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22 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

On the one hand, Kiva good. 

Otoh, how likely is it that under the Taliban women will be able to run businesses? 

Idk. It's a really upsetting day. 

 

The school I mentioned upthread, two of their main programs are computer training and early-marriage prevention (which works to also educate the families of the girls on options other than early marriage). 

I don't see the Taliban allowing either of the above. 

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1 hour ago, Rosie_0801 said:

Not to mention the extremely thorough job of indoctrination the Taliban perform on their recruits. I'm not sure those guys could be any different now even if they knew how to want to be.

Right, starting from childhood. It was more like dealing with a cult than a war. 

1 hour ago, Melissa Louise said:

So, post getting rid of All Quaeda, (sp?)it was all a con? 

I do think there were some who thought that was possible. They were very naive, and didn't understand how hard that would be. 

There were others who had baser motives, be it greed or vengeance or political power. 

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3 hours ago, Melissa Louise said:

Wow, I feel so dumb.

I honestly thought we were there to help rebuild/strengthen the Afghan nation. 

 

Realistically I guess we went there to prevent another September 11 - terrorist attacks on home soil.  It was never really about the Afghani people 😞 

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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Realistically I guess we went there to prevent another September 11 - terrorist attacks on home soil.  It was never really about the Afghani people 😞 

Yeah, I knew that was why we went there initially. Just dumbly assumed we stayed for other reasons. 

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3 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Realistically I guess we went there to prevent another September 11 - terrorist attacks on home soil.  It was never really about the Afghani people 😞 

Which also didn't make a ton of sense, as our invading was always likely to cause more hatred and attacks. 

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