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Immunity from vaccination vs prior COVID infection? (spin out from lockdown thread)


Pam in CT
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1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

Oh, sure, you shouldn't accept it OVER actual data. But the actual data doesn't show anything like lifetime immunity, either. 80% is nowhere near 100%, and that's just at 6 months or so. 

This 80% number (for natural immunity from past covid infection), does it account for the Delta variant? I think the Delta and Lambda are far too infectious for this number to hold up.

(sorry too many threads with too similar content that I am unable to keep up with all the links to all the studies).

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5 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

No, but then vaccines don't show anything like lifetime immunity and vaccine immunity isn't anywhere near 100% either so I suppose that still.....................................the two are kind of on the same page there.

Right, but once we know how long vaccine immunity usually lasts, we can require boosters when it wears off. Vs once we know about how long natural immunity lasts...getting a "booster" infection is never going to be advised, for obvious reasons. 

3 hours ago, Seasider too said:

I can envision a gadget not unlike a home glucose testing device. A little prick, a little test strip…. That would be an easy way for an individual to check his own status. 
 

As to how to prove that status to anyone, that’s harder to figure out. Can’t imagine having a test at the doorpost of every shop, restaurant, grocery store. 

I'm picturing more that the places that give vaccines could also test antibodies, and give you a standard card for those, with an expiration date. 

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14 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

So I was poking around and found this...

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00575-4/fulltext

 

It seems that they are saying that with this study (which appears to very large and well done) that natural infection is 80%+ effective at preventing reinfection.  It doesn't say anything about symptomatic vs asymptomatic reinfection, they appear to have gone by PCR testing alone. 

 

If IIRC the various data regarding vaccines preventing infection....that seems to be pretty on par with the vaccine ability to prevent infection. 

This appears to have been a one-time spot check (PCR cannot identify historic infection), which would mean that we can only be sure those who tested negative on the second occasion were negative at that specific moment. This is not a usable number for establishing overall protection, unless testing is done at least weekly across the surge (which according to the research paper, did not happen). Since I don't know how long Denmark's second surge is considered to be (mostly what I know is that it's in its 3rd surge at the moment), I can't even estimate what the likely amount of protection is.

  

14 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Yes, that seems comparable. These were two waves of the same variant, right? So it's a little hard to compare to our current numbers, which are talking about Delta. 

 

Even the first wave consisted of two variants, and both waves pre-date the time when specific variants tended to dominate proceedings (that started in December with Alpha). So it is hard to generalise unless individuals were already getting variant sequences logged (which for PCR may be possible).

 

Another thing to consider is that 92.6% of people in Wales have COVID antibodies detectable in their bloodstreams. Yet it still has a major COVID problem. Cases in Wales remain very high, especially among under-50s and in care homes, although hospital figures are starting to reduce. This suggests that antibodies, in and of themselves, don't prevent COVID infection. (It doesn't answer whether there's a threshold we haven't discovered yet or whether the thing that actually protects against COVID is something else that vaccines happen to have/induce).

Edited by ieta_cassiopeia
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10 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

I've heard of way too many reinfections to have hope for that 😕 . 

Have you really? I’m so curious about that because I haven’t heard of any. (I’m aware that is anecdotal only.) The people I know who have had COVID have not gotten reinfected (yet), though some such people have also been subsequently vaxxed. I also don’t personally know any vaxxed breakthroughs. I do currently know a COVID patient in the ICU with very poor prospects. (It is a client where I work.) I don’t know if this person was vaccinated or not but I would guess not. 

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re implementation for antibodies

4 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Right, but once we know how long vaccine immunity usually lasts, we can require boosters when it wears off. Vs once we know about how long natural immunity lasts...getting a "booster" infection is never going to be advised, for obvious reasons. 

I'm picturing more that the places that give vaccines could also test antibodies, and give you a standard card for those, with an expiration date. 

That concept for checking ongoing protection afforded by prior infection does sound implement-able at a logistics level...

 

although if this turns out to be true...

4 hours ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

...Another thing to consider is that 92.6% of people in Wales have COVID antibodies detectable in their bloodstreams. Yet it still has a major COVID problem. Cases in Wales remain very high, especially among under-50s and in care homes, although hospital figures are starting to reduce. This suggests that antibodies, in and of themselves, don't prevent COVID infection. (It doesn't answer whether there's a threshold we haven't discovered yet or whether the thing that actually protects against COVID is something else that vaccines happen to have/induce).

... and the presence of antibodies alone does not afford protection, then there's a way to go before that would work.

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23 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

re implementation for antibodies

That concept for checking ongoing protection afforded by prior infection does sound implement-able at a logistics level...

 

although if this turns out to be true...

... and the presence of antibodies alone does not afford protection, then there's a way to go before that would work.

Yeah, I've wondered about that. In Florida we have about half the population vaccinated, we have about 20% I think who have been infected....and we still have the issues we do. 

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18 hours ago, Spy Car said:

No correct about being "on the same page" in terms of protection.

And you are fully aware of what Covid can do.

Bill

Are

What kind of monster would say this to a woman whose husband died, just to win some gotcha Internet points?

no need to answer. Once seen, it can’t be unseen. 

Edited by desertflower
We have to keep this PG. Name calling doesn't get us anywhere either.
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1 hour ago, Quill said:

Have you really? I’m so curious about that because I haven’t heard of any. (I’m aware that is anecdotal only.) The people I know who have had COVID have not gotten reinfected (yet), though some such people have also been subsequently vaxxed. I also don’t personally know any vaxxed breakthroughs. I do currently know a COVID patient in the ICU with very poor prospects. (It is a client where I work.) I don’t know if this person was vaccinated or not but I would guess not. 

I've heard of some, yeah. Some of these forums and some friends of friends. I don't know THAT many people who've had COVID at all, personally, but the rate is obviously not that low according to my personal sampling. 

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On 8/10/2021 at 11:16 PM, ieta_cassiopeia said:

The UK allows anyone who's had a COVID positive result to be treated as if vaccinated for domestic purposes for 180 days following the initial positive test. However, they cannot begin to use it until they have completed their requisite period of isolation. There is no antibody test that can be taken to extend it past that point, or indeed to prove one is/isn't immune for the entire 180 days.

Vaccination is permanently valid and anyone who has neither recovered from the virus nor vaccinated against it can get a test and be treated as if vaccinated for 48 hours. None of these pathways allow exemption from masking in situations where it is demanded (although there are relatively few scenarios where masking is now required by the government), and indeed universities are not allowed to mandate any of these measures (though they can require a testing regime - weekly with two initial tests 3 days apart appears to be typical for students with face-to-face components to their teaching).
 

For the record, Scotland is requiring masks for adults in most public indoor spaces for the foreseeable future, including universities .

Eta for those who don't know, the UK government manages public health in England but the Scottish government does so for Scotland.  It's one of those devolution nomenclature anomalies.

Edited by Laura Corin
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12 hours ago, Spy Car said:

Unfortunately, that's not so.

Bill

 

 

You’re being cruel.

1 hour ago, SKL said:

FTR most of us ignore that poster because he is known for being that way.

True. This really crossed the line, though. 

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9 hours ago, pinball said:

[Language removed by moderator]

What kind of monster would say this to a woman whose husband died, just to win some gotcha Internet points?

no need to answer. Once seen, it can’t be unseen. 

For all his talk about caring for others, he's missing a very important component. Abhorrent.

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8 minutes ago, 2ndGenHomeschooler said:

How do you block someone on here? I don’t comment often but I read a lot and there’s some things I just don’t need to read. 

Go to account. Then ignore users. You can add him from there. I learned this last night. 😊

Edited by AbcdeDooDah
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1 minute ago, AbcdeDooDah said:

Go to account. Then ignore users. You can add him from there. I learned this last night. 😊

Thanks. I’ve been here for years and typically don’t mind reading “all sides” or just scrolling by some people. But some posts are too short and I read too fast. I end up catching everything before I get past things I’d rather not see. 
 

Off to find this “ignore” feature. 

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1 hour ago, SKL said:

FTR most of us ignore that poster because he is known for being that way.

Perhaps nice people like you ignore him but considering and the support and likes he gets there are tonne of posters who are A-Okey-dokey with everything he says.

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35 minutes ago, 2ndGenHomeschooler said:

Thanks. I’ve been here for years and typically don’t mind reading “all sides” or just scrolling by some people. But some posts are too short and I read too fast. I end up catching everything before I get past things I’d rather not see. 
 

Off to find this “ignore” feature. 

It’s a very useful feature.

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26 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

When people show you who they are, believe them.  
 

 

@happysmileylady — Every time I read one of your posts, I think of your husband and I say a prayer for you and your family, and I am sure I am far from being the only one who does that.

I feel like you get picked on a lot in these Covid-related threads, and for the life of me, I can’t understand why. If anyone here has paid the ultimate price from this horrible pandemic, it has been your family, yet I often see so little compassion or sympathy for the heartbreak you have been through, and what you and your children will continue to suffer for the rest of your lives. 

Please know that, even though many of us don’t post regularly on these Covid threads because the contentiousness can sometimes be tough to deal with — and not just for the people who don’t agree with the “party line” here, but also for people like me who do pretty much agree with it, but who don’t necessarily want to get embroiled in the conflicts — I can guarantee you that most of the people on this forum care about you and get upset when we see people being disrespectful and unsympathetic to your situation.

You have always been a kind and considerate member of this forum, and you continue to be so gracious to everyone, even when they are treating you poorly, and I wanted you to know how much I respect you for that.

Edited by Catwoman
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9 minutes ago, Catwoman said:

@happysmileylady — Every time I read one of your posts, I think of your husband and I say a prayer for you and your family, and I am sure I am far from being the only one who does that.

I feel like you get picked on a lot in these Covid-related threads, and for the life of me, I can’t understand why. If anyone here has paid the ultimate price from this horrible pandemic, it has been your family, yet I often see so little compassion or sympathy for the heartbreak you have been through, and what you and your children will continue to suffer for the rest of your lives. 

Please know that, even though many of us don’t post regularly on these Covid threads because the contentiousness can sometimes be tough to deal with — and not just for the people who don’t agree with the “party line” here, but also for people like me who do pretty much agree with it, but who don’t necessarily want to get embroiled in the conflicts — I can guarantee you that most of the people on this forum care about you and get upset when we see people being disrespectful and unsympathetic to your situation.

You have always been a kind and considerate member of this forum, and you continue to be so gracious to everyone, even when they are treating you poorly, and I wanted you to know how much I respect you for that.

I would hope it’s clear that even those of us who are vocally in support of the “party line” (I can’t say I love that phrasing) have nothing but compassion for her…

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Just now, Not_a_Number said:

I would hope it’s clear that even those of us who are vocally in support of the “party line” (I can’t say I love that phrasing) have nothing but compassion for her…

I’m not entirely sure that it is clear in some cases.

I agree that the majority of people here feel compassion for @happysmileyladyand her family, and I’m certainly not suggesting that everyone needs to agree with her because her dh died from Covid; I’m not saying that at all. But there have been many posts in Covid-related threads that have struck me as very cold and even cruel toward her, that could have been phrased in a far less hurtful and personal way. 

This isn’t some fake drama on the internet — and we see enough of that right here on this forum, so maybe we are all a little jaded. This is real. Her husband actually DIED. And I just wish that people would think of that for a second when they respond to her posts. It’s possible to disagree with her without mocking her or minimizing her opinions in a hurtful way. 

Look, I’m not trying to be the forum police. People can post whatever they want to post. I only posted because maybe there are a few people who might not realize how their posts toward Happysmileylady are coming across to others, and how she might be feeling when she reads them. I guess what I’m saying is that people may be feeling compassion toward her, but the tone of their posts may not be showing that.

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1 minute ago, Catwoman said:

I’m not entirely sure that it is clear in some cases.

I agree that the majority of people here feel compassion for @happysmileyladyand her family, and I’m certainly not suggesting that everyone needs to agree with her because her dh died from Covid; I’m not saying that at all. But there have been many posts in Covid-related threads that have struck me as very cold and even cruel toward her, that could have been phrased in a far less hurtful and personal way. 

This isn’t some fake drama on the internet — and we see enough of that right here on this forum, so maybe we are all a little jaded. This is real. Her husband actually DIED. And I just wish that people would think of that for a second when they respond to her posts. It’s possible to disagree with her without mocking her or minimizing her opinions in a hurtful way. 

Look, I’m not trying to be the forum police. People can post whatever they want to post. I only posted because maybe there are a few people who might not realize how their posts toward Happysmileylady are coming across to others, and how she might be feeling when she reads them. I guess what I’m saying is that people may be feeling compassion toward her, but the tone of their posts may not be showing that.

Well, you should certainly call me out if I’m being cruel. I’d like to know. 

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1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

Well, you should certainly call me out if I’m being cruel. I’d like to know. 

That’s so nice of you to say that. 🙂  But you weren’t one of the people I was thinking about, so please don’t worry that I was talking about you! And I should mention that I agree with you that I don’t think most people are being intentionally cruel. It’s just that it’s so hard to read people’s tone on the internet! 

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1 minute ago, Catwoman said:

That’s so nice of you to say that. 🙂  But you weren’t one of the people I was thinking about, so please don’t worry that I was talking about you! And I should mention that I agree with you that I don’t think most people are being intentionally cruel. It’s just that it’s so hard to read people’s tone on the internet! 

The Internet really flattens things 😞. They do start to feel less real. And people aren’t great at seeing things from other people’s perspectives in general.

@happysmileylady, I hope we aren’t making your life more difficult. I am truly sorry if I’ve ever seemed insensitive about your loss.

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On 8/12/2021 at 11:16 AM, Quill said:

Have you really? I’m so curious about that because I haven’t heard of any. (I’m aware that is anecdotal only.) The people I know who have had COVID have not gotten reinfected (yet), though some such people have also been subsequently vaxxed. I also don’t personally know any vaxxed breakthroughs. I do currently know a COVID patient in the ICU with very poor prospects. (It is a client where I work.) I don’t know if this person was vaccinated or not but I would guess not. 

I now know 4 people who've been reinfected with COVID, 1 of whom has had it on 3 separate occasions. Luckily, none of them seem to have ended up with Long COVID or had any serious sequelae.
 

On 8/12/2021 at 1:18 PM, Laura Corin said:

For the record, Scotland is requiring masks for adults in most public indoor spaces for the foreseeable future, including universities .

Eta for those who don't know, the UK government manages public health in England but the Scottish government does so for Scotland.  It's one of those devolution nomenclature anomalies.

True. Apologies for writing carelessly on the topic.
 

On 8/12/2021 at 5:01 PM, 2ndGenHomeschooler said:

How do you block someone on here? I don’t comment often but I read a lot and there’s some things I just don’t need to read. 

If you think any particular comment is breaking forum rules, you can report it by clicking on the three dots, then selecting "Report". (Note that the second rule on "Board Rules" is "Be civil").

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3 hours ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

I now know 4 people who've been reinfected with COVID, 1 of whom has had it on 3 separate occasions. Luckily, none of them seem to have ended up with Long COVID or had any serious sequelae.
 

True. Apologies for writing carelessly on the topic.
 

If you think any particular comment is breaking forum rules, you can report it by clicking on the three dots, then selecting "Report". (Note that the second rule on "Board Rules" is "Be civil").

Your post just triggered something I've been wondering about:  how do they know if someone has been reinfected with Covid vs. maybe it was just dampened and flared up again.  I seem to remember something, perhaps last year, about Covid not always going away. . . .  Quoting you, but really asking anyone. 

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5 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Your post just triggered something I've been wondering about:  how do they know if someone has been reinfected with Covid vs. maybe it was just dampened and flared up again.  I seem to remember something, perhaps last year, about Covid not always going away. . . .  Quoting you, but really asking anyone. 

Yes this is true, but hard to prove because they aren't digging into the genetics of the virus for most people.  There have been proven cases of relapse, in particular in people who have gotten it again within 3 months maybe a bit longer.  I have read some articles/studies on this, if I can find anything I'll repost.

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18 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Your post just triggered something I've been wondering about:  how do they know if someone has been reinfected with Covid vs. maybe it was just dampened and flared up again.  I seem to remember something, perhaps last year, about Covid not always going away. . . .  Quoting you, but really asking anyone. 

This is a good question to ask.

In all but one case, they had negative PCR tests and no symptoms for at least 6 weeks between occurrences. One of them was verified to have had different variants on each occasion (Alpha vs Delta - the gap for that person was nearly a year). The one who had it 3 times doesn't have access to testing outside hospital in their country, but with a gap of 2 and 5 months between incidents (and 3 separate trips to hospital for COVID because there was no other path to diagnosis or medically-approved treatment - though I don't know what test type that hospital did), it would either be a dramatic version of Long COVID that somehow has no symptoms in between times, or three separate infections.

It's possible "Long COVID" with flare-ups punctuated by totally asymptomatic periods explains the 6-week one in particular, but I don't think that explains all instances I've encountered. (I put "Long COVID" in inverted commas not because I doubt the biological accuracy of that term - it makes intuitive sense to me if the virus is lingering - but because in England, one has to have at least 1 symptom continuously for 3 weeks, on at least 1 occasion, to be diagnosed with Long COVID. Otherwise it's assumed to be either a separate infection or some sort of intermittent thing that is not yet formally named - although that is also accepted to be a legitimate chronic illness).

I've known a fair number of people who've had it once, tightened up their COVID protocols and not had it since, as well as some people who had it once and died (therefore could not be re-infected), so it's difficult for me to say how common reinfection is (because the risk management changed in my friendship group between the early months of COVID.

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Any info on those with natural immunity and Delta? Im guessing not but I'm so curious about a situation at my kids' work. Employer started testing weekly and 14 out of 40 employees tested positive. They are all vaxed. None of the unvaxed tested positive.

 

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