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newest covid propaganda is....


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4 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

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See to me ( a non mathy person, so maybe I just don't get it), this shows that unvaccinated people can still be seriously ill, which I thought it would be really rare.  Plus, not going to look it up, but also I read that those vaccinated have just as much of the virus in their nose and such, so we can spread it just as much as an unvaccinated person.

I think, to be fair, they found that most vaccinated people getting really ill got the vaccine very early and are also pretty old. 

 

4 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

I got the vaccine so I could lead a normal life and quit worrying about spreading it to others.  That isn't true. I guess my expectations were not right.  BUT I WANT TO BE NORMAL AGAIN.  It was so nice to hug my friends, hold hands while praying, not breathe through a mask or hide in my house. I could visit my mom, in particular, who if she gets it this will be REALLY bad for her.  I mean, I guess since we are both vaccinated, the risks are lower, but she could still be hospitalized with a bad case and still have long term consequences, which I wanted to avoid. So now I am back to not seeing her anymore, which makes me really sad. 

Could you maybe see her outside? That's what we're planning to do with our in-laws for the time being. They are also vaccinated, and we'd been seeing them inside, but now we're worried about it. 

 

4 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

So freakin tired of this. I want to live my life.

I know just how you feel 😞 . 

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15 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

 

 

Could you maybe see her outside? That's what we're planning to do with our in-laws for the time being. They are also vaccinated, and we'd been seeing them inside, but now we're worried about it. 

If she lived nearby, for sure I would do this.  But since seeing her means going there to stay, it just doesn't make sense to make that long of a trip for an hour outside. Plus, right now in our state, the temps are just brutal and not sure she could be outside for an hour unless it was really early.

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2 minutes ago, Seasider too said:

You are interpreting the data correctly. The alarming headlines out of Israel present a base line fallacy. 

Can you explain to this non-mathy person in basic English, please. ( Not being snarky. Those stats just looked REALLY alarming to me.)

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19 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

Can you explain to this non-mathy person in basic English, please. ( Not being snarky. Those stats just looked REALLY alarming to me.)

Imagine a town with 100 people in it.  80 of them have been vaccinated and 20 haven’t.  Six people from this town get sick, four of them who have been vaccinated and two who haven’t.  This sounds awful — twice as many vaccinated people are sick as unvaccinated people!  But 4 out of 80 means that 1 out of every 20 vaccinated people got sick while 2 out of 20 unvaccinated people got sick.  So you were actually twice as likely to get sick if you were unvaccinated.  
 

When you compare the numbers of vaccinated sick people to unvaccinated sick people you have to also consider the total number of vaccinated to unvaccinated people.  In our town above it’s true that 4 vaccinated people got sick and only 2 unvaccinated people.  But 76 vaccinated people did not get sick and only 18 unvaccinated people did not.  

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4 minutes ago, Danae said:

Imagine a town with 100 people in it.  80 of them have been vaccinated and 20 haven’t.  Six people from this town get sick, four of them who have been vaccinated and two who haven’t.  This sounds awful — twice as many vaccinated people are sick as unvaccinated people!  But 4 out of 80 means that 1 out of every 20 vaccinated people got sick while 2 out of 20 unvaccinated people got sick.  So you were actually twice as likely to get sick if you were unvaccinated.  
 

When you compare the numbers of vaccinated sick people to unvaccinated sick people you have to also consider the total number of vaccinated to unvaccinated people.  In our town above it’s true that 4 vaccinated people got sick and only 2 unvaccinated people.  But 76 vaccinated people did not get sick and only 18 unvaccinated people did not.  

Ok, that helps, though I really want no one to get really sick and/or die. To me, that was the whole point. 

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Just now, TexasProud said:

Ok, that helps, though I really want no one to get really sick and/or die. To me, that was the whole point. 

That is what we all want. There is no medical intervention that is ever 100%. We’re trying hard to figure it out and have to do our best with the tools we’ve got, kwim? 

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1 minute ago, TexasProud said:

Ok, that helps, though I really want no one to get really sick and/or die. To me, that was the whole point. 

Sure. That's what we'd all like. But no vaccine is 100 percent effective. But AFAIK Israel's data is saying that two doses of the Pfizer vaccine is around 93 percent effective at preventing hospitalization or death from the Delta variant (Forbes). That's down from (IIRC) about 97 percent effectiveness for original Covid. But still . . 93 percent is very, very good. The CDC is out now saying that 99.99 percent of vaccinated Americans have NOT had a breakthrough case that has required hospitalization (CNN). Sure that's a PR effort to re-frame things, but I think the statistic is probably accurate. The vaccines are very protective against serious illness. Yes, I worry about kids too young to be vaccinated and the immune compromised (DH and I are among those). Maybe I'm being too Pollyanna-ish, but at this point I do not see any reason to freak out. I just don't.

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4 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

Ok, that helps, though I really want no one to get really sick and/or die. To me, that was the whole point. 

We all want that.

 

Here’s a another comparison that might help.  Approximately 40% of traffic fatalities involve a drunk driver.  That means in 60% of traffic fatalities everyone was sober.  Does that mean drunk drivers are safer drivers?  NO!  Because only a tiny fraction of drivers are drunk the percentage of drunk drivers who cause a death is much higher than the percentage of sober drivers who do.  

But that also means that if we completely eliminate drunk driving we will still have traffic deaths.  Does that mean efforts to reduce drunk driving are pointless?

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2 hours ago, TexasProud said:

Can you explain to this non-mathy person in basic English, please. ( Not being snarky. Those stats just looked REALLY alarming to me.)

When you look at those stats you posted on a per capita basis, not raw numbers, you see that the rate of serious illness in unvaccinated people is 4-5 times higher than in vaccinated people, and that the risk of serious illness for both vaxxed and unvaxxed is vastly higher in the elderly, who (1) have more risk to being with, (2) generally have lower immune response to vaccines anyway, and (3) were vaccinated earliest so their immunity is waning sooner:

Seriously ill, age <60: Unvaccinated 0.8 per 100K is 4x higher than vaccinated at 0.2 per 100K

Seriously ill, age 60+: Unvaccinated 45.7 per 100K = 5x higher than vaccinated at 9.4 per 100K

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13 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

When you look at those stats you posted on a per capita basis, not raw numbers, you see that the rate of serious illness in unvaccinated people is 4-5 times higher than in vaccinated people, and that the risk of serious illness for both vaxxed and unvaxxed is vastly higher in the elderly, who (1) have more risk to being with, (2) generally have lower immune response to vaccines anyway, and (3) were vaccinated earliest so their immunity is waning sooner:

 

Seriously ill, age <60: Unvaccinated 0.8 per 100K is 4x higher than vaccinated at 0.2 per 100K

Seriously ill, age 60+: Unvaccinated 45.7 per 100K = 5x higher than vaccinated at 9.4 per 100K

Got it. Thank you.

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5 hours ago, Happy2BaMom said:

I guess I’m a little confused…even the Israel data shows that the vaccinated are well protected from severe illness. 
 

I guess I wasn’t expecting that the vax would keep me from catching it, but maybe that’s just me? 
 

(note: I’m not trying to be snarky here). 

It just looked like we had both, and now we know that's not necessarily the case.

I am wanting to watch what happens with long covid for the vaccinated.

I think we were also all hoping that we'd have less disruption to schedules, workplaces, etc., and that's not likely to happen. 

I feel like it's harder to determine what the risk budget should be with this in-between scenario. We feel an obligation to not pass it along (especially through DH's job), but it's also harder to know if we have it with asymptomatic spread being more likely with vaccination. 

I'm quite happy with not dying or being seriously ill. Truly. But it's an adjustment.

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10 minutes ago, kbutton said:

It just looked like we had both, and now we know that's not necessarily the case.

I am wanting to watch what happens with long covid for the vaccinated.

I think we were also all hoping that we'd have less disruption to schedules, workplaces, etc., and that's not likely to happen. 

I feel like it's harder to determine what the risk budget should be with this in-between scenario. We feel an obligation to not pass it along (especially through DH's job), but it's also harder to know if we have it with asymptomatic spread being more likely with vaccination. 

I'm quite happy with not dying or being seriously ill. Truly. But it's an adjustment.

The thing is, I think it was the case until Delta.  Delta's like a whole new thing.

I feel like now, vaccinated, I have to take about the same precautions to avoid catching it as I did with no vax and Original Virus, but a huge difference is that now I feel like if I did catch it, my likelihood of having severe illness is much lower with the vax.  (I am over 55, so not in the oh-I'm-young falala group).  So, really, really annoying, but still better.

And... if I weren't vaxed, I'd be rather terrified, because it would be almost impossible not to catch it, and my risks of severe disease or death would likely be even higher if I'd caught Orginial Virus.    So,  vax very very good, even if I feel like I have to lock down almost as much with vax + Delta as I did before vax w/ OV.  Because it's not like if I hadn't gotten vaxed, Delta wouldn't still be a thing and my risk wouldn't be WAY higher without it.  

I want a Delta booster!

I actually don't think the vax efficacy is waning that much at all in reference to the virus it was designed for.  I think the problem is, again... Delta.  I'm not sure the CDC was off-base that a booster wouldn't have been needed this fall yet if Delta hadn't shown up...

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2 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

I actually don't think the vax efficacy is waning that much at all in reference to the virus it was designed for.  I think the problem is, again... Delta.  I'm not sure the CDC was off-base that a booster wouldn't have been needed this fall yet if Delta hadn't shown up...

I think this is probably true. I wouldn't be surprised if they thought the mutations would be less...mutated, lol! (I mean that maybe they'd change in smaller ways that wouldn't mess things up so much.)

At the same time, we know there was a major shift in who was susceptible in the 1918 pandemic, so why not a similar change with this one? I had two ancestors who got it, and I have always presumed it was that second wave that got them because they were both young (my school-aged gr-grandfather survived; his father did not). 

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8 minutes ago, kbutton said:

At the same time, we know there was a major shift in who was susceptible in the 1918 pandemic, so why not a similar change with this one? I had two ancestors who got it, and I have always presumed it was that second wave that got them because they were both young (my school-aged gr-grandfather survived; his father did not). 

This is one of the scary thoughts I don't like to spend too much time on. A lot of people who are unconcerned are unconcerned because it's not as bad for young people. With the way this thing is mutating, and young people being the least covered, we have no reason to feel secure that it won't mutate in a way that is suddenly much more severe for young people. I'm not sure why that isn't reason enough for some people to want to stop it. It's been being said for ages that the more transmission we have, the more likely we were going to get a variant eventually that was worse, and we did (Delta). There's no reason to think that it will stop there. As long as we have high rates of transmission, we're all still at risk of something worse coming of this (and now I'll pack that thought back away in the back of my brain where I will try not to think about it too much).

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9 minutes ago, KSera said:

This is one of the scary thoughts I don't like to spend too much time on. A lot of people who are unconcerned are unconcerned because it's not as bad for young people. With the way this thing is mutating, and young people being the least covered, we have no reason to feel secure that it won't mutate in a way that is suddenly much more severe for young people. I'm not sure why that isn't reason enough for some people to want to stop it. It's been being said for ages that the more transmission we have, the more likely we were going to get a variant eventually that was worse, and we did (Delta). There's no reason to think that it will stop there. As long as we have high rates of transmission, we're all still at risk of something worse coming of this (and now I'll pack that thought back away in the back of my brain where I will try not to think about it too much).

I've also thought about this, especially due to the historical precedent. 

Also, frankly, that's the way the evolutionary pressures lean. If you've infected a lot of the adults, you start mutating in a way that makes you more effective on younger kids, where effective means "more transmissible," which means "more viral load," and therefore, probably more severe disease. 

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2 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

which means "more viral load," and therefore, probably more severe disease. 

Although oddly, I've seen recently that they don't seem to have data showing that viral load is correlated to disease severity. It seems like it would be, though now it strikes me that the more recent data could be confounded. If vaccinated people who contract the illness have viral loads just as high, but don't have serious disease because they have a primed immune system, that's not going to give a good idea about what viral load does in someone who is not vaccinated and has to mount a new immune response to it.

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15 minutes ago, kbutton said:

I am wanting to watch what happens with long covid for the vaccinated.

14 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Me too. I'm also quite nervous about this. 

This is my biggest concern, especially in light of the data coming out on significant cognitive issues (including physical changes in the brain verified by pre- and post-covid brain scans), not to mention the "basic" long covid symptoms like severe fatigue, breathlessness, depression/anxiety, etc. The fact that severity of symptoms is not necessarily correlated with the risk of cognitive issues or long covid does not make me feel less cautious just because I'm likely to have "mild" symptoms. Until I see data showing that vaccination specifically protects people from long covid, I'm going to assume that I am at risk for that and will do whatever I can to avoid infection, no matter how "mild" it's likely to be. 

 

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On 7/31/2021 at 6:52 PM, Melissa Louise said:

I mean, I know that the type of anti vaxers my friends are, are a minority of progressives, and I believe that in the US they don't form the biggest part of your problem! 

It's just funny for me that I've never met a conservative leaning anti vax person. Every Con I know (not many) just rocks up with their kid on schedule. Weird bubble I live in. 

 

I know a ton (as in more than a dozen families) of conservatives who are either anti vax or vax on an alternative schedule/plan. I fall into the second group. Largely, the majority are very conservative Catholic which surprised me (having grown up liberal/culturally Catholic) but also a few conservative Protestant homeschool families. 

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10 minutes ago, KSera said:

Although oddly, I've seen recently that they don't seem to have data showing that viral load is correlated to disease severity. It seems like it would be, though now it strikes me that the more recent data could be confounded. If vaccinated people who contract the illness have viral loads just as high, but don't have serious disease because they have a primed immune system, that's not going to give a good idea about what viral load does in someone who is not vaccinated and has to mount a new immune response to it.

Hmm, interesting. 

But perhaps the point is that getting a disease that makes kids sicker for longer and makes them symptomatic is the direction of evolutionary pressure, either way... 

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1 minute ago, Corraleno said:

This is my biggest concern, especially in light of the data coming out on significant cognitive issues (including physical changes in the brain verified by pre- and post-covid brain scans), not to mention the "basic" long covid symptoms like severe fatigue, breathlessness, depression/anxiety, etc. The fact that severity of symptoms is not necessarily correlated with the risk of cognitive issues or long covid does not make me feel less cautious just because I'm likely to have "mild" symptoms. Until I see data showing that vaccination specifically protects people from long covid, I'm going to assume that I am at risk for that and will do whatever I can to avoid infection, no matter how "mild" it's likely to be. 

I had the impression severity of symptoms was, in fact, correlated to long COVID? It's not totally predictive but seems correlated from what I've seen. 

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1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

I had the impression severity of symptoms was, in fact, correlated to long COVID? It's not totally predictive but seems correlated from what I've seen. 

This study found that 27% of patients who were never hospitalized developed long covid, and fully 1/3 of those were asymptomatic 0-10 days following a positive test. They also cite research estimating that 10% of hospitalized patients go on to develop long covid, suggesting that even asymptomatic cases may have equal risk to hospitalized patients. (Note: I have not read the cited papers that estimate 10% for hospitalized patients, so the numbers may not actually be comparable, but I haven't seen anything so far suggesting that severe cases are much higher risk for long covid than mild or moderate cases; if you have a link to studies on that I would love to see them because long covid is my biggest concern.)

The articles I've seen recently specifically on cognitive issues also did not find a correlation between severity of symptoms and brain changes. For example the UK Biobank study found significant brain changes, compared to matched controls, in a population where <5% were hospitalized, and AFAIK they did not find significant differences between hospitalized and nonhospitalized patients.

There was also a paper presented at the International Alszheimer's conference in Denver last week that found the best predictor was loss of smell, even in people with very mild symptoms. There is a summary of it here:

"Dr. Gabriel de Erausquin, a professor of neurology at the University of Texas Health Science Center, and colleagues studied more than 200 adults 60 and older from Argentina who were infected with Covid-19. Those who had a persistent loss of smell were more likely to experience cognitive issues, they told the Alzheimer's Association International Conference.

Three to six months after they were infected, more than half of the patients still struggled with forgetfulness and about a quarter experienced additional cognitive challenges. How sick a patient was with Covid-19 was not an indicator of whether they would experience cognitive decline. "The severity of the initial disease does not predict who is going to get this," Erausquin told CNN. "In fact, many of them had minimal symptoms -- just a cold or loss of smell."

The cognitive issues --including persistent forgetfulness, difficulty sequencing tasks, and forgetting words and phrases -- are similar to those seen in Alzheimer's patients. Erausquin noted that the parts of the brain responsible for sense of smell overlap with those impacted by Alzheimer's disease."

Edited by Corraleno
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Well hell. I’m the one with the maybe positive if you squint and ignore the color test, and yesterday I forgot what a bookmark was called for a solid minute, and also spent 10 minutes looking for a purple folder, sure I’d set it somewhere in the school book pile. Um, yeah, it hadn’t even been delivered yet. 

And DS22’s ONLY symptoms is loss of smell, although I don’t think it is complete. 

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2 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Well hell. I’m the one with the maybe positive if you squint and ignore the color test, and yesterday I forgot what a bookmark was called for a solid minute, and also spent 10 minutes looking for a purple folder, sure I’d set it somewhere in the school book pile. Um, yeah, it hadn’t even been delivered yet. 

And DS22’s ONLY symptoms is loss of smell, although I don’t think it is complete. 

Stress and/or lack of sleep will do that too if it makes you feel better. 

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4 minutes ago, kbutton said:

Stress and/or lack of sleep will do that too if it makes you feel better. 

Yes.  And living with an Alzheimer’s patient, you worry more when you  forget what the bookmark and folder are used for, rather than what they are called/where you put them.  I would chalk this up to stress and worry, and schedule some extra sleep.

Are you using the Binax texts?  One of our kids had an odd line coming off the control line, like a spike.  Otherwise negative. We still call it negative.  How does yours look? @ktgrok of course!  That wasn’t clear, oops.

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7 minutes ago, kbutton said:

Stress and/or lack of sleep will do that too if it makes you feel better. 

Yeah, I think it is just stress. From Tuesday to Sunday: Main drain line from house clogged, DS22 tested positive, dryer broke, and my laptop broke. Long week.

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8 minutes ago, Spryte said:

Yes.  And living with an Alzheimer’s patient, you worry more when you  forget what the bookmark and folder are used for, rather than what they are called/where you put them.  I would chalk this up to stress and worry, and schedule some extra sleep.

That's actually super helpful for me, thanks for saying it. I have had terrible word finding problems the last couple years, and it drives me crazy and makes me worry sometimes. I always know what the word I'm looking for means, I just can't seem to grab it from my brain (I have this badly with names sometimes, too). I would chalk it up with my other long-Covid-like symptoms, except I think it actually started when my last child was born, and is likely more of a sleep deprivation thing.

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8 minutes ago, KSera said:

That's actually super helpful for me, thanks for saying it. I have had terrible word finding problems the last couple years, and it drives me crazy and makes me worry sometimes. I always know what the word I'm looking for means, I just can't seem to grab it from my brain (I have this badly with names sometimes, too). I would chalk it up with my other long-Covid-like symptoms, except I think it actually started when my last child was born, and is likely more of a sleep deprivation thing.

Yes, I think of word finding difficulties as separate from dementia/Alzheimer’s like symptoms.  It was a liberating distinction for me, too!  I learned it from my Mom’s neurologist.  Kind of a relief, right?!

NPR did a great series on Alzheimer’s a few years ago, too, and they discussed that issue.  Said it’s normal to forget so-and-so’s name or where you put your keys.  Pretty sure that’s a sleep deprivation thing, too!

The word finding issues for me came with long-term tick borne diseases.  Took a good, solid 5 years of treatment to get rid of them, but looking back … it looks really different from what I see with my mom.  I associate word finding issues with brain fog.  

And then that kind of does start to sound … like long Covid. Ugh. But hopefully these are separate issues.

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1 minute ago, Spryte said:

And then that kind of does start to sound … like long Covid.

I had illness that was so classic for Covid and lasting symptoms that are common of long Covid, and I will always wonder, but never know if that's what it was (I believe you and I were sick at the same time, in March 2020 IIRC).

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10 minutes ago, KSera said:

I had illness that was so classic for Covid and lasting symptoms that are common of long Covid, and I will always wonder, but never know if that's what it was (I believe you and I were sick at the same time, in March 2020 IIRC).

Oh, I remember that!  You were very sick.  Did you ever antibody test? (I did not, so totally get it if you didn’t, I think there weren’t really tests available for either of us then.) It seemed pretty probable that you had it.

Are there any docs doing long Covid treatment near you?  I wonder if one could evaluate you?

On long Covid treatment, I have wondered, too, if docs like the one I see for chronic illness might help.  That’s probably for another conversation, but I had a boatload of chronic viruses, and bacterial infections that just had to be treated very slowly, one at a time.  The brain fog and word-finding, fatigue and chronic pain very slowly left, but it took a long time.  I wonder if the docs out there who already work with, errrrr, problem patients, like I was… I wonder if they might have a leg up on treating long Covid.  That could be an option, too. It’s something that I have been keeping in my “if any of us develop long Covid” arsenal.  

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3 minutes ago, Spryte said:

Oh, I remember that!  You were very sick.  Did you ever antibody test? (I did not, so totally get it if you didn’t, I think there weren’t really tests available for either of us then.) It seemed pretty probable that you had it.

Are there any docs doing long Covid treatment near you?  I wonder if one could evaluate you?

I got antibody tested in October and was negative. But, it was acknowledged that that far out, it was debatable if a negative could be trusted. A positive would have told us, but a negative doesn't necessarily. I haven't looked into any treatments, because I'm functional at this point. Just super low energy and I get winded with any kind of exertion. I was found to be quite anemic at the same time in October, and need to retest. I have a feeling I still am. So, that's a confounding aspect.

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20 minutes ago, Spryte said:

Oh, I remember that!  You were very sick.  Did you ever antibody test? (I did not, so totally get it if you didn’t, I think there weren’t really tests available for either of us then.) It seemed pretty probable that you had it.

Are there any docs doing long Covid treatment near you?  I wonder if one could evaluate you?

On long Covid treatment, I have wondered, too, if docs like the one I see for chronic illness might help.  That’s probably for another conversation, but I had a boatload of chronic viruses, and bacterial infections that just had to be treated very slowly, one at a time.  The brain fog and word-finding, fatigue and chronic pain very slowly left, but it took a long time.  I wonder if the docs out there who already work with, errrrr, problem patients, like I was… I wonder if they might have a leg up on treating long Covid.  That could be an option, too. It’s something that I have been keeping in my “if any of us develop long Covid” arsenal.  

The word finding--overall brain fog--and fatigue and of course chronic pain are all classic symptoms of many AI diseases. I get totally brain fried when my RA is flaring. Last week I used the not-quite-right word in several posts. My brain just couldn't come up with the word I wanted at the time. We had super high humidity here, which is one of my RA triggers, and I was having a moderate flare. I'm guessing rheumatologists and other docs who treat AI diseases will likely be involved in the treatment of long Covid.

Edited by Pawz4me
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35 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

The word finding--overall brain fog--and fatigue and of course chronic pain are all classic symptoms of many AI diseases. I get totally brain fried when my RA is flaring. Last week I used the not-quite-right word in several posts. My brain just couldn't come up with the word I wanted at the time. We had super high humidity here, which is one of my RA triggers, and I was having a moderate flare. I'm guessing rheumatologists and other docs who treat AI diseases will likely be involved in the treatment of long Covid.

Oh, definitely! I hope everyone works on it, and fast. My rheumie is part of my team here, too. My AI issues arose after chronic infections.  Grrrr.  I’m probably way off base, just wondering if there’s any chance that long Covid is related to a low level chronic viral infection.  Possibly not.  I only wonder because I had several viral infections that should have been self limiting and cleared, but they turned into long term, chronic infections because I had a crummy immune system. Viruses are stealthy.  I wonder if Covid can do that, too?  As well as possibly triggering AI conditions?  I’m not a doc, and don’t play one on tv, so anything I say on the topic is just me wondering, based on personal experience with bizarre, rare viruses and illnesses.  

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