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At what point would you lock down again?


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10 minutes ago, Laura Corin said:

How does that compare with vaccination rates? Here older people are more likely to be vaccinated. 

Oh definitely! Only 30% in my county are vaccinated,  but a much larger percentage of old people are. That's why there are so many more cases among younger folks

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4 hours ago, KSera said:

FWIW, from what I’ve read, your 8 year old would be safer than a 1 year old. The under 5 and over 10 age groups seem to be ones most likely to have serious cases. 

I think covid might be a little riskier to a 1 year old than an 8 year old, but flu is far riskier to a one year old. So, I do think that a 1 year old is at higher risk of flu than of covid.

But we were on pretty close to lock down status during flu season before covid hit, because of a vulnerable kid, so the argument that "it's like the flu" is less reassuring to me than to other people.  

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19 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

The bar graph doesn't make any sense to me and seems to have been purposely designed to make it look like Delta is less virulent. If you compare, for example, urban areas with a high % of Delta but also high vax rates to rural areas with low vax rates and mostly Alpha, then you're likely to artificially compress the difference between them. To accurately compare the virulence of Delta to the original strain you'd need to compare the rate of hospitalization in unvaccinated Delta patients with the rate of hospitalization in unvaccinated patients of the same age who had the original strain. But none of these "Delta isn't more virulent" folks are doing that. And without a focused study, like they did in Ontario, Canada, I don't think there's any way to do that just using general case & hospitalization numbers since the CDC is no longer tracking breakthrough cases that aren't hospitalized (so there's no way to subtract those from the case numbers). 

I don’t know what to make of the bar graphs, but I doubt that this one graph is all the analysis that was done. It’s an op-Ed, with all the limits those entail.

Whatever was done is of course not the same as a careful study, but the studies that have been done also have plenty of issues. The issue is controversial and not settled either way.
 

In the end, it’s still the same virus, and the same strain as it always has been, and it is plenty bad on its own. It seems to have evolved to spread better, maybe, though when everything is analyzed mor thoroughly in the coming months and years, who knows what the consensus will be on all the different variant diversity, transmission, and virulence. It seems like there would be probably have to be huge fundamental changes to have huge, major changes in virulence, maybe such that it would be a new strain and not just a variant. 

And whether there is a slight change in virulence or not doesn’t change what we, or most adults, can do about it: get vaccinated. It’s reassuring for those with unvaccinated children that there seems to be no increased virulence in children. 

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2 hours ago, KSera said:

This is what I think we would expect, since cases are in a younger population now. I would like to see the hospitalization per case data broken down by age group (is it there and I missed it?) I'm quite surprised they didn't address that in the article. With the older population mostly vaccinated, and the average age of those infected much lower, we would expect a lower hospitaliztion number. I don't think we can tell anything from this if not broken out by age.

Yes, I'd need way better data than this kind of confusing bar graph. 

 

1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

The bar graph doesn't make any sense to me and seems to have been purposely designed to make it look like Delta is less virulent. If you compare, for example, urban areas with a high % of Delta but also high vax rates to rural areas with low vax rates and mostly Alpha, then you're likely to artificially compress the difference between them. To accurately compare the virulence of Delta to the original strain you'd need to compare the rate of hospitalization in unvaccinated Delta patients with the rate of hospitalization in unvaccinated patients of the same age who had the original strain. But none of these "Delta isn't more virulent" folks are doing that. And without a focused study, like they did in Ontario, Canada, I don't think there's any way to do that just using general case & hospitalization numbers since the CDC is no longer tracking breakthrough cases that aren't hospitalized (so there's no way to subtract those from the case numbers). 

Yes, that's what it looked like to me, too. The reason that the ratio is so low in high Delta stats is possibly that there are many more cases in vaccinated patients in high Delta states, which would decrease the rate of hospitalization. 

Does anyone have a more reasonable analysis of the existing data that actually tries to match patient characteristics between Delta and non-Delta cases?? Also, do we know how many of the current cases are breakthrough cases?  

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39 minutes ago, Penelope said:

It’s reassuring for those with unvaccinated children that there seems to be no increased virulence in children. 

Well, see, I'd love that data. Anyone have data on hospitalization rates in kids under 12 per case? At least that data would be uniform -- everyone would be unvaccinated. 

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Just now, Not_a_Number said:

do we know how many of the current cases are breakthrough cases?  

Our hospital listed 88% of current inpatients unvaccinated. That means 12% are at least partially vaxxed. HOWEVER,  we're dealing with small total numbers , so the standard deviation is too large for a meaningful generalization 

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4 minutes ago, regentrude said:

Our hospital listed 88% of current inpatients unvaccinated. That means 12% are at least partially vaxxed. HOWEVER,  we're dealing with small total numbers , so the standard deviation is too large for a meaningful generalization 

But that's also not super helpful, since we know that protection against hospitalization is much better than against infection... 

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23 hours ago, Jean in Newcastle said:


 

The leaky vaccine myth says that people can get Covid from the vaccine “leaking” or “shedding “ the virus. Which doesn’t even make sense since none of the vaccines are live vaccines. 

 

this is a misunderstanding of what “leaky vaccines” means.

 

it could be like someone writing “leaky gut” and that being interpreted as a euphemism for vomiting when actually the person writing means that the lining of the GI tract may let material through linings. But “leaky vaccines” are afaik more proved to exist than “leaky gut” and to at least sometimes cause more deadly pathogens than would exist without the “leaky vaccine”.   
 

In this case the quotes are because it is a a particular term, not s vague idea. Look up “Marek” “Chickens” and “leaky vaccines” together. 
or start here:

 

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/article/leaky-vaccines-enhance-spread-of-deadlier-chicken-viruses

 

we can disagree of course, but let’s at least try not to be talking about completely different concepts

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I’m way behind as the thread moved fast last night but a lot were asking about outdoor spread.  I know we have spread between strangers at the MCG.  Some of the seating is kind of undercover but all open at the front I think. I’ve never been myself but from video footage etc.  Of course we don’t know for sure that the spread occurred in the stands and not at the bar or toilets or something but I will let you guys know if I see anymore.  Maybe some of the other Aussies are more familiar with it and can add a bit more.

The cafe where it spread sounds like a similar environment- kind of open air but a shopping arcade type thing so maybe not quite as open air as a playground.  I can imagine the air circulation being difficult.

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1 hour ago, regentrude said:

Our hospital listed 88% of current inpatients unvaccinated. That means 12% are at least partially vaxxed. HOWEVER,  we're dealing with small total numbers , so the standard deviation is too large for a meaningful generalization 

I don’t know about hospitalized but ICU wise it is extremely obvious that the vaccine works.

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6 minutes ago, TCB said:

I don’t know about hospitalized but ICU wise it is extremely obvious that the vaccine works.

Obviously you know first hand, but that's what I keep reading everywhere: that while there are a small proportion of vaccinated individuals hospitalized vs unvaccinated, most ICUs have only unvaccinated patients.

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21 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I’m way behind as the thread moved fast last night but a lot were asking about outdoor spread.  I know we have spread between strangers at the MCG.  Some of the seating is kind of undercover but all open at the front I think. I’ve never been myself but from video footage etc.  Of course we don’t know for sure that the spread occurred in the stands and not at the bar or toilets or something but I will let you guys know if I see anymore.  Maybe some of the other Aussies are more familiar with it and can add a bit more.

The cafe where it spread sounds like a similar environment- kind of open air but a shopping arcade type thing so maybe not quite as open air as a playground.  I can imagine the air circulation being difficult.

Yikes. 

Is there a summary of the contact tracing anywhere? Do you know what proportion of the spread so far has been outdoors in Australia? Because I have to say, the rates of outdoor spread are extremely relevant to me. 

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7 minutes ago, KSera said:

Obviously you know first hand, but that's what I keep reading everywhere: that while there are a small proportion of vaccinated individuals hospitalized vs unvaccinated, most ICUs have only unvaccinated patients.

Yes it’s so obvious even the sceptics working there have to acknowledge it. It’s amazing to see, but also even more heartbreaking to see people suffering unnecessarily.

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6 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Yikes. 

Is there a summary of the contact tracing anywhere? Do you know what proportion of the spread so far has been outdoors in Australia? Because I have to say, the rates of outdoor spread are extremely relevant to me. 

Looks like there was better discussion on the WuhAn thread on this.  I don’t have any data, I’ve been looking for it.  Will let you know if anything turns up.  

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On 7/15/2021 at 4:52 PM, ktgrok said:

And maybe giant green bugs from planet Zeroximus will show up and tap dance in my kitchen, or not. 

Seriously, on the one hand we have actual evidence regarding how well various vaccines protect against various variants, including asymptomatic infections as well as transmission. 

On the other hand we have....random speculation not based in fact. 

so yeah...maybe those aliens will sing about how that evidence was falsified by their enemy the fish floaties from the marshmallow city....or maybe not. Or maybe we should make decisions based on the actual info we have and not random speculation that "might" happen. 


I think this is a valid way to think it through on your part.

You have been given information that there are a number of treatment options.
 

You have been given information that the “vaccines” may be dangerous in various ways  —some already suspected, and possibly also in ways not yet discovered.

Unlike people who probably don’t really have what information they need for “informed consent” you certainly do. And I think all the parents on WTM now clearly do too. 
 

You can make decisions like you have described in the quoted post. And if the “might” turns out to be real with perhaps very devastating results for someone in your family, at least you should have no regrets as you will have made the decision(s) with your eyes wide open. 


 

The same is true for me with an opposite direction decision. 
 

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8 minutes ago, Pen said:


I think this is a valid way to think it through on your part.

You have been given information that there are a number of treatment options.
 

You have been given information that the “vaccines” may be dangerous in various ways  —some already suspected, and possibly also in ways not yet discovered.

Unlike people who probably don’t really have what information they need for “informed consent” you certainly do. And I think all the parents on WTM now clearly do too. 
 

You can make decisions like you have described in the quoted post. And if the “might” turns out to be real with perhaps very devastating results for someone in your family, at least you should have no regrets as you will have made the decision(s) with your eyes wide open. 


 

The same is true for me with an opposite direction decision. 
 

The devastating results I am seeing with my own eyes are of people not being vaccinated. It is a matter of life or death for some. I can’t tell you how frustrating it is to watch people die, unvaccinated because they were fearful of some theoretical, unproven problem. I have tried to look carefully at every potential problem with the vaccine, and I have not  seen convincing evidence. I know there are some rare serious side effects, and I’m sorry about that, but I can tell you that I have seen people suffer and die, with my own 2 eyes, unnecessarily, from being unvaccinated, and it sucks. 

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28 minutes ago, TCB said:

The devastating results I am seeing with my own eyes are of people not being vaccinated. It is a matter of life or death for some. I can’t tell you how frustrating it is to watch people die, unvaccinated because they were fearful of some theoretical, unproven problem. I have tried to look carefully at every potential problem with the vaccine, and I have not  seen convincing evidence. I know there are some rare serious side effects, and I’m sorry about that, but I can tell you that I have seen people suffer and die, with my own 2 eyes, unnecessarily, from being unvaccinated, and it sucks. 


that was the sense my father had had -  and it had seemed sensible in his particular circumstances 

 

several of my family members in health care have decided to have adult family members vaccinated (partly due to concerns about Covid in their risk group and partly for travel convenience reasons), but not to have the children do so

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2 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Well, see, I'd love that data. Anyone have data on hospitalization rates in kids under 12 per case? At least that data would be uniform -- everyone would be unvaccinated. 

Definitely would love a better break down with kids. With < 2months separated out from from under 12. Children less than 6-8weeks of age would be hospitalized for any illness (a fever of 100 would put them front of the line at the ER, I know from experience), so that's a different risk profile. 

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1 hour ago, Pen said:


I think this is a valid way to think it through on your part.

You have been given information that there are a number of treatment options.
 

You have been given information that the “vaccines” may be dangerous in various ways  —some already suspected, and possibly also in ways not yet discovered.

Unlike people who probably don’t really have what information they need for “informed consent” you certainly do. And I think all the parents on WTM now clearly do too. 
 

You can make decisions like you have described in the quoted post. And if the “might” turns out to be real with perhaps very devastating results for someone in your family, at least you should have no regrets as you will have made the decision(s) with your eyes wide open. 


 

The same is true for me with an opposite direction decision. 
 

You are side stepping that you are repeating disproven information over and over again. Things like the vaccine doesn't prevent infection just symptoms which is just not true. And I know it isn't that you just were not aware of the information because I and others have posted it multiple times, often in posts quoting you. And yet you keep repeating the idea. That's not ignorance it is purposely spreading misinformation. Over and over again. It goes beyond trolling and into malicious when it comes to life and death situations like this. 

 

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2 hours ago, ktgrok said:
2 hours ago, ktgrok said:

You are side stepping that you are repeating disproven information over and over again. Things like the vaccine doesn't prevent infection just symptoms which is just not true. And I know it isn't that you just were not aware of the information because I and others have posted it multiple times, often in posts quoting you. And yet you keep repeating the idea. That's not ignorance it is purposely spreading misinformation. Over and over again. It goes beyond trolling and into malicious when it comes to life and death situations like this. 

 


having been repeatedly and I think wrongly accused of such “trolling, malevolent “ etc. by people on here, I wrote to SWB requesting her guidance as to whether she wished me to stop posting or not. She chose not to answer, afaik.
 

Had she requested me not to post, I would not have.
 

My impression of truth and reality  is clearly different than yours.  It has been repeatedly thus.

 

I answered your question as to why I put quotes on “vaccine” — and you do not like my answers.  That is your choice, but your choice to ask me such a question and then accuse my answers of being “trolling and malevolent” is your own doing. Perhaps your own personal form of baiting and malevolence. 
 

My impression of what sources are reliable are clearly different than yours.

 

And So it is. 
 

 

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5 hours ago, Pen said:


I think this is a valid way to think it through on your part.

You have been given information that there are a number of treatment options.
 

You have been given information that the “vaccines” may be dangerous in various ways  —some already suspected, and possibly also in ways not yet discovered.

Unlike people who probably don’t really have what information they need for “informed consent” you certainly do. And I think all the parents on WTM now clearly do too. 
 

You can make decisions like you have described in the quoted post. And if the “might” turns out to be real with perhaps very devastating results for someone in your family, at least you should have no regrets as you will have made the decision(s) with your eyes wide open. 


 

The same is true for me with an opposite direction decision. 
 

But at least Katy is far less likely to contribute to the severe mental and physical strain on healthcare workers and to use limited healthcare resources unnecessarily. Many people are looking at a much bigger picture rather than only what they personally want for themselves.

I do find it interesting that you wrote to SWB about your posts. If you’ve ever seen some of the comments on her Facebook page, you’d know that she hears from people who are taken in by conspiracy theories, misinformation, and propaganda. So it’s not surprising she didn’t write back only to you. 

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7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I’m way behind as the thread moved fast last night but a lot were asking about outdoor spread.  I know we have spread between strangers at the MCG.  Some of the seating is kind of undercover but all open at the front I think. I’ve never been myself but from video footage etc.  Of course we don’t know for sure that the spread occurred in the stands and not at the bar or toilets or something but I will let you guys know if I see anymore.  Maybe some of the other Aussies are more familiar with it and can add a bit more.

The cafe where it spread sounds like a similar environment- kind of open air but a shopping arcade type thing so maybe not quite as open air as a playground.  I can imagine the air circulation being difficult.

I am assuming that you mean Melbourne Cricket Ground ... I would have thought that the spread in an outdoor arena like a cricket stadium would be very very less ... it is scary to think that Delta is so contagious to do damage in that kind of situation. But, then, the international Cricket tournaments in India were the super spreader events that distributed Delta to thousands in April, so there is some precedent for it happening ....

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51 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

I am assuming that you mean Melbourne Cricket Ground ... I would have thought that the spread in an outdoor arena like a cricket stadium would be very very less ... it is scary to think that Delta is so contagious to do damage in that kind of situation. But, then, the international Cricket tournaments in India were the super spreader events that distributed Delta to thousands in April, so there is some precedent for it happening ....

as the Melbourne Cricket  Ground spreading even is an unfolding thing here  not much data is  available. I think it is up to 6 that contacted Corona at the footy, none of them sere seated together  one of these then went to a restaurant and infected people at tables nearby, one went to a bar and infected others, a child was infected and has spread it to a classmate at one school a teacher was infected at a highschool and now 6 other staff have been infected. and another school has some teachers and 1 student positive . 

from initial contact to spreading is as small as 24 hours

link below is form yesterday news but it has footage of the MCG during the match and you can see that the audience wasn't packed

https://www.9news.com.au/national/coronavirus-victoria-update-new-cases-july-17-new-restrictions-lockdown-latest/754d20b6-cd7f-4250-ae3c-86f27769d26e

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3 hours ago, mathnerd said:

I am assuming that you mean Melbourne Cricket Ground ... I would have thought that the spread in an outdoor arena like a cricket stadium would be very very less ... it is scary to think that Delta is so contagious to do damage in that kind of situation. But, then, the international Cricket tournaments in India were the super spreader events that distributed Delta to thousands in April, so there is some precedent for it happening ....

Is the expectation that the spread was outside, or are there indoor areas involved?

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3 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Is the expectation that the spread was outside, or are there indoor areas involved?

It seems like it’s linked to the members stand which I think has more undercover area and a bar but I think it’s a bit unclear at this point because they will still be contacting people and waiting for test results. I do think it would be a riskier environment than a playground though.  Having said that we went to the tennis this year and it was incredibly carefully managed with masking and separation of the crowds etc more so than the local shops.  But I think things have become more relaxed since then.  My kids had their footy match straight after the A-grade tonight and there’s no social distancing and masking going on at all.

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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

It seems like it’s linked to the members stand which I think has more undercover area and a bar but I think it’s a bit unclear at this point because they will still be contacting people and waiting for test results. I do think it would be a riskier environment than a playground though.  Having said that we went to the tennis this year and it was incredibly carefully managed with masking and separation of the crowds etc more so than the local shops.  But I think things have become more relaxed since then.  My kids had their footy match straight after the A-grade tonight and there’s no social distancing and masking going on at all.

Let me know if they find out. I’m obviously very interested in outdoor spread…

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9 hours ago, Clarita said:

Definitely would love a better break down with kids. With < 2months separated out from from under 12. Children less than 6-8weeks of age would be hospitalized for any illness (a fever of 100 would put them front of the line at the ER, I know from experience), so that's a different risk profile. 

My DD2 got sick 2 days after she was born in 1996 and was not hospitalized. So is this a regional difference or has this changed?

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2 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Mind summarizing for me? I'm terrible at watching/listening instead of reading 🙂 . 

I'm not a numbers person. The first half is about the risks of Long Covid and how some surveys overstate it because the symptoms don't necessarily result from Covid - we are all stressed, not sleeping, getting headaches etc.  I can't remember the likely figures for actual Long Covid though.

The children discussion goes through the risks of poor outcomes when children get Covid compared to any rare side effects of the vaccine, which is not being recommended for under 18s in the UK.

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9 minutes ago, Laura Corin said:

I'm not a numbers person. The first half is about the risks of Long Covid and how some surveys overstate it because the symptoms don't necessarily result from Covid - we are all stressed, not sleeping, getting headaches etc.  I can't remember the likely figures for actual Long Covid though.

The children discussion goes through the risks of poor outcomes when children get Covid compared to any rare side effects of the vaccine, which is not being recommended for under 18s in the UK.

I think the real problem is that we don't have a good sense of rates of long COVID. Some surveys overstate it and some understate it. Many surveys use unrepresentative groups. No one knows how long it lasts or the real repercussions. 

It's very hard to compare risks given what we know, frankly. 

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Cases in Manhattan have tripled in the last few weeks: it was under 50 for quite a while, and the numbers I see on my tracker today is 137. Positivity is now above a percent. 

I'm feeling pretty depressed about the whole thing 😕 . 

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5 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Cases in Manhattan have tripled in the last few weeks: it was under 50 for quite a while, and the numbers I see on my tracker today is 137. Positivity is now above a percent. 

I'm feeling pretty depressed about the whole thing 😕 . 

Same in WI.  We had rates under 50 for a bit for the whole state.  I was feeling ok and opening up.  I really expected a surge in October around here.  I thought we would make it  until fall.  Now I am questioning everything.   Which of course sucks.  I am depressed too.  Maybe it is just a 4th of July spike and not Delta.  But does it even matter?   We have only opened up in the last week and are thinking now should we continue?  One of my kids went to ballet last Saturday, Doctor on Monday, and then Gymnastics camp Tue-Thursday.  By Thursday afternoon she was sick and got covid tested.  Negative, but man I thought we would make it a few weeks or months before we had a scare and got sick with anything.  Now it makes me feel like opening things up was the wrong call.  Even though I know that mentally they need it.  It sucks.

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1 minute ago, mommyoffive said:

Same in WI.  We had rates under 50 for a bit for the whole state.  I was feeling ok and opening up.  I really expected a surge in October around here.  I thought we would make it  until fall.

That's what happened last year, so I was really really hoping that'd how it would go, given the vaccines. I'm pretty sure it's Delta throwing things out of whack. 

 

1 minute ago, mommyoffive said:

Now I am questioning everything.   Which of course sucks.  I am depressed too.  Maybe it is just a 4th of July spike and not Delta.  But does it even matter?   We have only opened up in the last week and are thinking now should we continue?  One of my kids went to ballet last Saturday, Doctor on Monday, and then Gymnastics camp Tue-Thursday.  By Thursday afternoon she was sick and got covid tested.  Negative, but man I thought we would make it a few weeks or months before we had a scare and got sick with anything.  Now it makes me feel like opening things up was the wrong call.  Even though I know that mentally they need it.  It sucks.

Are you guys doing indoor stuff? We've "opened up," but we still weren't having kids go inside anywhere. So far, they haven't actually had colds yet, which really does make me wonder if basically all respiratory disease spread is indoors -- we weren't even masking outdoors for all of the last 2 months, and still no colds! 

It looks like people weren't exactly wrong about worry about "bad air" a hundred years ago, eh? 

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17 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I think the real problem is that we don't have a good sense of rates of long COVID. Some surveys overstate it and some understate it. Many surveys use unrepresentative groups. No one knows how long it lasts or the real repercussions. 

It's very hard to compare risks given what we know, frankly. 

I think the Zoe stats are worth looking at because they have before during and after infection data. They are also careful about definitions. As you say, no-one knows the long-term repercussions. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01292-y?ftag=YHF4eb9d17

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Just now, Laura Corin said:

I think the Zoe stats are worth looking at because they have before during and after infection data. They are also careful about definitions. As you say, no-one knows the long-term repercussions. 

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01292-y?ftag=YHF4eb9d17

It's self-report and non-randomized, though. So there's really not great evidence for evaluating it -- for instance, people may very well get tired of registering symptoms and stop. 

I like all data, including data like this, but it's not the highest quality data. We really need a study with a reasonable set of people being followed for a good long while, complete with a control group.

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5 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

That's what happened last year, so I was really really hoping that'd how it would go, given the vaccines. I'm pretty sure it's Delta throwing things out of whack. 

 

Are you guys doing indoor stuff? We've "opened up," but we still weren't having kids go inside anywhere. So far, they haven't actually had colds yet, which really does make me wonder if basically all respiratory disease spread is indoors -- we weren't even masking outdoors for all of the last 2 months, and still no colds! 

It looks like people weren't exactly wrong about worry about "bad air" a hundred years ago, eh? 

Yep we are doing indoor things.  My kids are all ballet dancers and have been dancing online since March 2020.  They went to one indoor class last Saturday and then indoor gymnastics and ballet intensive this week.  Both places take precautions and everyone is masked indoors.  They sometimes did eat indoors socially distant.   So we can't just do things outdoors as my kids are not into that. My younger 2 (maybe 3) could be convinced to try outdoor things, but my older 2 (3) are very into an indoor activity.

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Just now, mommyoffive said:

Yep we are doing indoor things.  My kids are all ballet dancers and have been dancing online since March 2020.  They went to one indoor class last Saturday and then indoor gymnastics and ballet intensive this week.  Both places take precautions and everyone is masked indoors.  They sometimes did eat indoors socially distant.   So we can't just do things outdoors as my kids are not into that. My younger 2 (maybe 3) could be convinced to try outdoor things, but my older 2 (3) are very into an indoor activity.

Aah, got it 😞 . That makes sense. 

I guess I'm lucky neither of my kids is super into something that requires being indoors. DD8 does like gymnastics, but it was never a serious pursuit, and she was just as happy to do outdoor sports camp. 

I'm honestly not convinced that indoor precautions help enough, although I do think it's better than NOT having them. But for me, it still seems like the best thing is to stay outside as much as possible. But I can see how that doesn't work for ballet! 

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3 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

It's self-report and non-randomized, though. So there's really not great evidence for evaluating it -- for instance, people may very well get tired of registering symptoms and stop. 

I like all data, including data like this, but it's not the highest quality data. We really need a study with a reasonable set of people being followed for a good long while, complete with a control group.

Yes indeed. Presumably out of the million people reporting they only counted those who kept reporting symptoms.  So people who were feeling completely hopeless or de-energised might not be included. 

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1 minute ago, Laura Corin said:

Yes indeed. Presumably out of the million people reporting they only counted those who kept reporting symptoms.  So people who were feeling completely hopeless or de-energised might not be included. 

Exactly 😕 . 

For what it's worth, my personal estimate is probably in the 2 to 7 percent range, with the lower end of that for younger people. The problem is that I find a 2% risk unacceptably high, especially if it results in anything like CFS and not just a bad year 😕. (And we currently don't know.) 

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1 hour ago, Laura Corin said:

Yes indeed. Presumably out of the million people reporting they only counted those who kept reporting symptoms.  So people who were feeling completely hopeless or de-energised might not be included. 

I also think it isn't totally logical to compare before and after Covid numbers, because there are always so many people walking around with relatively mild symptoms of undiagnosed unwellness.  Even at doctor visits, many people don't remember all the symptoms they've been meaning to mention.  But they might be more likely to report them in a [post-Covid] study set up to better capture such things.  Just because they are reporting them now doesn't mean Covid infection was always the cause.

My kids and I haven't had Covid (we had antibody checks), but we've had most of the symptoms of long Covid.  Some of it is because of Covid disrupting everything.  How we wouldn't have gotten tired and depressed last summer, I don't know.  Many of the activities that have served to support our physical and mental health were taken away, replaced by new reasons for fear and anxiety.  It would not be at all surprising for people diagnosed with Covid to respond even more intensely to these things, as they don't have the option of looking away (a very common response to bad news).

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9 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Is the expectation that the spread was outside, or are there indoor areas involved?

In the Indian Cricket Tournaments that were super-spreaders of Delta, there were tens of thousands in outdoors venues, without social distancing and almost zero masking. Most used crowded public transit to get to the stadium and I am assuming that many used the restrooms and probably ate at the concession stands - which would make the transmission "indoors" even though the event was held outside. 

(When we talk about high levels of safety in doing outdoor activities, to me, it translates to: going outdoors to a venue like a trail, park or beach, keeping my distance from others, wearing a mask if I feel uncomfortable, doing the activity and going home to eat or use the restroom.)

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31 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

(When we talk about high levels of safety in doing outdoor activities, to me, it translates to: going outdoors to a venue like a trail, park or beach, keeping my distance from others, wearing a mask if I feel uncomfortable, doing the activity and going home to eat or use the restroom.)

Yes, that's my optimal situation, I have to say, but that's not what playgrounds look like, and my kids need friends. We distanced VERY thoroughly last year.

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My county is orange now on a CDC map!  That honestly happened faster than I thought it would.  I thought my county was still farther away from the more problem counties, but no, we are orange with red counties on 2 sides 😞
 

We had been green for months!

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7 minutes ago, Lecka said:

My county is orange now on a CDC map!  That honestly happened faster than I thought it would.  I thought my county was still farther away from the more problem counties, but no, we are orange with red counties on 2 sides 😞
 

We had been green for months!

Which map are you using? 

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Grrrr, there is an area at the corner of Oklahoma, Kansas, Missouri, and Arkansas that has the top 10 counties for hospitalizations right now 😞. I am following a new Facebook page from that area.  
 

It is so sad 😞

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