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At what point would you lock down again?


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2 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I was referring to the mob behaviors of doxxing and publicly shaming people who behave badly. I never said or even intimidated that authorities putting into place and enforcing policies to protect public health was mob like. 

You did say, "What happens if the employers/ mob switches over to favoring being anti-mask, pro-let-er-rip (or whatever the current issue might change to)?"

And I think the "mob" already is anti-mask and pro-let-er-rip.

So I see false equivalences.

Bill

 

 

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2 hours ago, Hilltopmom said:

We didn’t even make it a full 5 days before we had kids with Covid in our rooms. At least we have mask mandates and testing or vaccinations required here. 

 

Same. Covid case by day 3. Maybe it came from outside of school, but still. 

Apparently because we're masking except during lunch and snack, and "distancing" while eating, none of us will be close contacts unless we are closer than 6 feet for longer than 15 minutes, or something like that. 🤔 

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46 minutes ago, Spy Car said:

You did say, "What happens if the employers/ mob switches over to favoring being anti-mask, pro-let-er-rip (or whatever the current issue might change to)?"

And I think the "mob" already is anti-mask and pro-let-er-rip.

So I see false equivalences.

Bill

 

 

Nope.  Selective quoting makes it very easy to make someone say what they weren't saying at all.

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23 hours ago, SeaConquest said:

Good. SAP fired the coughing Karen in the grocery store too, Janene Hoskovec.

About time we get serious with these people. Play stupid games; win stupid prizes. 

I am conflicted on this trend.  On one hand, I don't think that people should be able to get away with such bad behavior.  And the threat of "being thought badly of" is no longer a deterrent from bad behavior.  But on the other hand, I don't really like the thought of people being doxed and shamed.  So I am conflicted. "  (My reply to SeaConquest about the shaming of the women who were laughing at a teen sharing his grandmother's death)

"Yes, the mob behavior aspect is what bothers me. What happens if the employers/ mob switches over to favoring being anti-mask, pro-let-er-rip (or whatever the current issue might change to)?  I might agree with the "mob" right now but I don't agree with mobbish behavior."  My second complete quote which you did not quote in it's entirety. 

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55 minutes ago, Kanin said:

Same. Covid case by day 3. Maybe it came from outside of school, but still. 

Apparently because we're masking except during lunch and snack, and "distancing" while eating, none of us will be close contacts unless we are closer than 6 feet for longer than 15 minutes, or something like that. 🤔 

Yup that’s how it’s working here too… cuz you know, Covid isn’t airborne & kids don’t get in each other’s faces outside at recess when they aren’t masked. Err, not.

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1 minute ago, TexasProud said:

OR what????? Huh?  Just ban me, then I will have no one. No one at all.

No.  I'm not going to ban you over this.  This is not what moderators do.  But it's not healthy to keep up that type of conversation.  It is against the board rules to have the last word. 

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19 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

I have already done that. See my vent thread. But I am bored with no one to talk to. Nothing i can do. And I am really, really angry.

I am so so terribly sorry, Texas Proud. I've always been pretty open about who I am. If you want someone to talk to, please feel free to friend me on FB. I am moving this weekend, but can be a friend if you need one. https://www.facebook.com/monique.b.labarre/

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https://www.npr.org/2021/09/10/1035885306/san-francisco-children-schools-vaccinated-covid-outbreaks-none-pediatric?utm_source=facebook.com&utm_term=nprnews&utm_campaign=npr&utm_medium=social&fbclid=IwAR13F40NHf0BjCB_qDBVvg7Zt4h7BjTz9StBFLxqxTCN_GEnuog7kDbGdpg

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There have been no COVID-19 outbreaks in San Francisco schools since students and educators went back into classrooms on Aug. 16, the San Francisco Department of Public Health announced Thursday, noting that about 90% of children ages 12 to 17 are fully vaccinated.

An outbreak, the department said, means there are "three or more cases in non-related households in which the source of infection occurred at the school, and not another setting."

While the department reported there have been 227 COVID-19 cases — out of 52,000 students and nearly 10,000 staff — the "vast majority" of those cases are occurring outside of schools.

 

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10 hours ago, kokotg said:

It's getting harder and harder for me to be patient about kid vaccine approval. 

I mean, this was OBVIOUS. It was obvious that as soon as schools reopened, there'd be an incredible number of kids getting sick. This is why I felt so impatient in the first place... 

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4 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

I mean, this was OBVIOUS. It was obvious that as soon as schools reopened, there'd be an incredible number of kids getting sick. This is why I felt so impatient in the first place... 

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/exclusive-us-decision-pfizer-covid-19-shot-kids-age-5-11-could-come-october-2021-09-10/

 

This is paywalled for me so hard to know how much faith to have in it but might be positive.

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17 hours ago, Hilltopmom said:

Yup that’s how it’s working here too… cuz you know, Covid isn’t airborne & kids don’t get in each other’s faces outside at recess when they aren’t masked. Err, not.

Yeah. Obviously they need to eat, but I wish they would at least acknowledge the risks of eating in a classroom. People seem to be pretending that it is safe. 

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So my area has been trending down for 3 weeks now, but yesterday Halloween Horror Nights started. My friend went and said it was a superspreader in the making. No attendance limits, people shoulder to shoulder, maybe 1/5th had on masks, etc. She double masked even outdoors, and is vaccinated, but man. I'm not looking forward to a spike from this. 

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1 hour ago, Innisfree said:

43.hospitals.with.full.ICUs.turned.him.away.

I would love to see data on adverse events from shots compared to adverse events from full hospitals in some way that is scaled for proportionality (obviously full hospitals are due to confluence of several factors in a way that adverse events are less likely to be).

I feel bad for people who do have real potentially vaccine-related complications, but TBH, even someone who develops Guillain-Barre or something it was likely primed to develop it the next time they fell ill or when they got their next vaccine for something "normal." It's not specific to vaccines. 

Also, I think the death rate from "no room at the hospital" is likely to be much higher than the death rate from even the worst vaccine complications. GBS has something like an 80% recover rate (I looked this up after someone whose relative got it post-Covid shot was warning everyone away from the shot. She has spoken out with misleading information about all kinds of vaccines before this though, so if her relative's GBS is actually due to another factor, she probably wouldn't entertain the idea.) 

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1 hour ago, Dynamite5 said:

This. This is my fear. I desperately wish hospitals could triage non-Covid patients over non-vaccinated Covid patients. 

People think of this stuff as happening in a perfect sequence, but in reality, beds open, beds fill. People who are appropriately triaged die while waiting. The person in front of them might be another heart attack victim or someone with a stroke, not someone with Covid. 

I am sure people move up and down the triage list as events unfold in real time. 

If it's really truly crisis care standards, I think there is some talk of "survivability" being the deciding factor between relatively equal claims on an ICU bed (or a vent, etc.), but again, that's assuming the patients you have that are being pitted against one another are vaccinated vs. unvaccinated, and not vaccinated vs. heart attack. There may be times the heart attack patient gets a bed and not the person with Covid that is vaccinated and vice versa.

So, yeah, the unvaccinated are driving the overwhelm, but de-prioritizing any individual who is unvaccinated might not even be beneficial in the big picture. 

I suppose if they start pulling the unvaccinated out of beds they already occupy, it might lead to a different outcome, but I don't know if they even entertain that idea with crisis care standards. At the very least, I can see it being more like, "we need this vent, and they have extensive lung damage; we've let them stay on it because 5% of people survive at this point, but now we have someone who is 75% likely to survive."

People in the know, feel free to correct me on this. 

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The UK tried survivability (specifically, a "fragility index") as a method of triaging people with COVID in the first lockdown. It ended up with a lot of people with autism and learning disabilities being wrongly refused ventilation due to being perceived as less able to survive (their disabilities meant they needed accommodations to give the expected result to indicate survivability on the tests, and none were available, not even the chaperoning they would usually have had in hospital).

There was quite a bit of scandal when a month afterwards, the NHS banned the index, but there is evidence some hospitals reintroduced it in the second wave, with the same result.

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Ok, tell me if I did the math correctly.  We had a HUGE, and I mean HUGE jump over the last week in cases.  Looking at the current cases ( I guess they consider all positives in the last 10 days to be current cases.)  I divided that number by the total number of people in the county.  My little town is in two counties. I did that and both of the counties have 2.5 percent of the total population that currently have Covid.  That seems ridiculously high, but maybe not?

Oh I looked at cumulative data and 6.7 percent of one county and 7.5 percent of another county have had Covid if you count from the beginning.

Edited by TexasProud
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Ieta_cassiopia and others: Just a note, what the UK calls "learning disabilities" is what the USA calls "intellectual disability" or, formerly, "mental retardation" (a now dispreferred term). USA learning disabilities are learning *differences* in the UK.

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2 hours ago, TexasProud said:

Ok, tell me if I did the math correctly.  We had a HUGE, and I mean HUGE jump over the last week in cases.  Looking at the current cases ( I guess they consider all positives in the last 10 days to be current cases.)  I divided that number by the total number of people in the county.  My little town is in two counties. I did that and both of the counties have 2.5 percent of the total population that currently have Covid.  That seems ridiculously high, but maybe not?

Oh I looked at cumulative data and 6.7 percent of one county and 7.5 percent of another county have had Covid if you count from the beginning.

About 10% of my county has had Covid, based on confirmed cases. The real number is likely higher because a lot of people here don't bother to test everyone in the household, (or even test at all). 

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46 minutes ago, MissLemon said:

About 10% of my county has had Covid, based on confirmed cases. The real number is likely higher because a lot of people here don't bother to test everyone in the household, (or even test at all). 

Same here. Confirmed is almost exactly 10%. The former county health department director estimated that another 10-15% had contracted it but never tested. She is probably right. For about the first three months of the pandemic, it was nigh unto impossible to get a test without going to the ER. There were definitely more cases. But, nowhere near anything super high because we are rural and except for a brief ramp up around the holidays 2020, because there was mask mandate and that included schools with other protocols as well, we didn't have another wave in this county. Then we came through spring and summer masks didn't come off until everyone was already outside A LOT and schools were letting out. Delta didn't really get here significantly until August. Schools started and Labor Day weekend, and boom, our numbers are going up a good bit. I suspect now we are going to have a nasty wave. Sigh. And who knows what the actual numbers will be? Our health department is currently without leadership, most of the employees quit and took good jobs with health departments where the county commissioners don't treat them like crap. There are no in testing sites, no vaccine sites. The pharmacies are stocking Pfizer and Moderna and many of them are walk- in vaccines, but of course not tests. Our little county hospital has a small number of tests and they are rationing them. I don't know why they have so few. The colleges in other counties have huge stockpiles and test all unvaxed students twice per week. Maybe they just contracted for them in bulk back in the spring. Certainly these colleges have a whole lot more money to play with than the podunk stitch and ditch station.

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We have been doing regular things: school/tutorial, scouts, church. Masked indoors. We are vaxed. Our family suffered  massive, long term, negative effects from last year’s shut down and need to be out, with people.

BUT, Dd and I are planning to attend an outdoor skills competition in another state with a team from our AHG troop in two weeks. So she and I are doing life by Zoom for the next couple weeks. Not taking any chances on exposure or actually getting covid and having our camping trip ruined. We live in a low vax state and some of our circles have little masking or significant unvaxed populations (mostly children rather than anti-vaxers). Thankful that we can zoom classes and meetings, livestream church, and facetime friends. Also glad it’s just for two weeks.
 

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32 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

Same here. Confirmed is almost exactly 10%. The former county health department director estimated that another 10-15% had contracted it but never tested. She is probably right. For about the first three months of the pandemic, it was nigh unto impossible to get a test without going to the ER. There were definitely more cases. But, nowhere near anything super high because we are rural and except for a brief ramp up around the holidays 2020, because there was mask mandate and that included schools with other protocols as well, we didn't have another wave in this county. Then we came through spring and summer masks didn't come off until everyone was already outside A LOT and schools were letting out. Delta didn't really get here significantly until August. Schools started and Labor Day weekend, and boom, our numbers are going up a good bit. I suspect now we are going to have a nasty wave. Sigh. And who knows what the actual numbers will be? Our health department is currently without leadership, most of the employees quit and took good jobs with health departments where the county commissioners don't treat them like crap. There are no in testing sites, no vaccine sites. The pharmacies are stocking Pfizer and Moderna and many of them are walk- in vaccines, but of course not tests. Our little county hospital has a small number of tests and they are rationing them. I don't know why they have so few. The colleges in other counties have huge stockpiles and test all unvaxed students twice per week. Maybe they just contracted for them in bulk back in the spring. Certainly these colleges have a whole lot more money to play with than the podunk stitch and ditch station.

I don't know the details on testing here, but I can tell that test capacity is about 1000 tests a day in my county right now. The total number of tests never exceeds 1000 new tests per day. 

And we don't have a health department. 😕 Emergency Management and the fire marshal handle covid response here, and neither of those offices have ever given a flip about it. They are anti-mask and think vaccines are a matter of "personal choice".  They post more often about the weather (daily) than they do about covid (maybe once a month).

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My county is also at about 10% confirmed. But we’re headed into another peak that could rival our winter numbers. Our 7-day average has kept below 60, but the past 3 days have been over 100 each, so...

(We had hit a 108 average in December and a 107 average in January.)

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11 hours ago, TexasProud said:

 

Oh I looked at cumulative data and 6.7 percent of one county and 7.5 percent of another county have had Covid if you count from the beginning.

You're very lucky to live in an area where the cases have been so low. For comparison -- slightly more than 13 percent in my county have had Covid.

ETA: That's confirmed cases. I'm sure the real number is significantly higher.

Edited by Pawz4me
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The CDC was estimating that 1 in 4 cases were being caught with testing as of late July on average.  I am sure this varies by area and what their surges and testing availability and compliance look like.   Where positivity is regularly over 5% and vax rates are low,  I really wouldn’t be trusting the numbers.   You a also look at death or hospitalization rates over a time period to get a sense of case number.  Though those estimates are off too.  
 

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/burden.html

Edited by FuzzyCatz
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1 hour ago, Pawz4me said:

You're very lucky to live in an area where the cases have been so low. For comparison -- slightly more than 13 percent in my county have had Covid.

ETA: That's confirmed cases. I'm sure the real number is significantly higher.

3000 cases in 10 days diesnt feel low. 

Edited by TexasProud
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32 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

3000 cases in 10 days diesnt feel low. 

Given Texas is running over 10% positivity the past month, that is likely an underestimate as well.  They are over 14% this week, ugh.  As high as 20% at some points.  That is really awful.  
 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/texas

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UGH.   The hospitals in the area just put out a thing saying they are having high patient volumes and limited resources and may get critical with the way things are headed.  

Then the next article on our city website is the high school football team hosting a breakfast for the moms.  Indoors.   NOT ONE MASK!!     Like I thought the schools do not have a mask mandate in our city.  PERFECT.  

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18 hours ago, FuzzyCatz said:

Given Texas is running over 10% positivity the past month, that is likely an underestimate as well.  They are over 14% this week, ugh.  As high as 20% at some points.  That is really awful.  
 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/texas

Yeah our positivity for the 2 counties has been running between 16 and 21 percent. Our daily cases in one county around 145/100,000 and the other 244/100,000 ( number one in the state of Texas).  At least those were the figures a couple of days ago. 

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Confirmed cases in my county are at over 18% of the population. Positivity rate has been between 20-30% almost the whole time. Dipped down to about 12 % briefly before this wave hit. 
 

I know so many people who had all the symptoms and refused to be tested. At this point it seems like everyone should have had it.  Mind boggling. 

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23 hours ago, FuzzyCatz said:

Given Texas is running over 10% positivity the past month, that is likely an underestimate as well.  They are over 14% this week, ugh.  As high as 20% at some points.  That is really awful.  
 

https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/region/us/texas

Yeah, we just dropped down to 14% in my county and I'm thrilled given we were at 20%. And hospitalizations are dropping steadily, finally! Deaths still rising...

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In happy news, the new church we tried DID have everyone masking! A few brought insulated cups of water in and were lowering it to drink, and obviously babies didn't have them on, but that was it. Oh, and the pastor takes his off for speaking from the pulpit, but distanced from everyone there and he is vaccinated. As is most of the church, likely, given how much it is promoted there. And I figure, if you are not Covid cautious you wouldn't be there, you'd go to a church that doesn't require masks of everyone. 

I even saw that people put them on in the parking lot, well before going inside. And the kids stuff was outside, and I fully expected they would take masks off outside but they didn't! When I went to get the kids off the playground at the end almost every kid still has a mask on. And then we ate outdoors - some sat closer than I'd be comfortable with but we found a ledge to sit on where we could distance. 

At youth group kick off it was again outdoors almost entirely and masks were mandatory inside, and optional outside, and still people wore them outside! Like, they CARE!

Oh, and the outside seating area does have a roof over it (shade is important) but they put in big ceiling fans as well, so air doesn't get trapped under there with covid particles building up over time. 

They did have a choir and singing again in church, all masked. Congregation sang two hymns. Choir sang the rest on their own, and the air intake that goes to AC filter is right above them, and not a large choir. And the songs the congregation sang are old hymns, not the kind of praise music you belt out as loud as possible, lol. Not perfect, but honestly, the best I'm going to find  and my kids NEED some exposure to other human beings. These are probably the safest ones I'm going to find for them to have that. 

And they have a backup plan for virtual if cases go back up - they did a full virtual sunday school program, youth group, etc last year and can do it again. They evaluate once a month. 

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On 9/12/2021 at 1:51 AM, Tanaqui said:

Ieta_cassiopia and others: Just a note, what the UK calls "learning disabilities" is what the USA calls "intellectual disability" or, formerly, "mental retardation" (a now dispreferred term). USA learning disabilities are learning *differences* in the UK.

Just to make it more complicated, in the UK, learning differences are classified as a disability under the law. (Although I would not expect people with most specific learning differences - which is what the part of the UK I am in calls USA learning disabilities, and for anyone from other parts of the world, that distinction's about issues making particular types of learning more difficult that don't involve IQ or general/developmental disabilities - to have had problems with the fragility index). A specific learning difference that hit the ability to process verbal information would have endangered the person who had it in this context, however, since the fragility index was mostly given verbally).

 

To clarify, the people who were demonstrably suffering under the UK "fragility index" were people whose disabilities affected IQ or were general/developmental disabilities. Not people who had dyslexia or things like that.

Edited by ieta_cassiopeia
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Interestingly, San Francisco schools aren't having much COVID at all. I was feeling very pessimistic about school safety measures making enough of a difference, but it looks like I was wrong -- with safety measures and low levels of community transmission, things seems like they can at least be OK for a bit. 

We have lots of friends in the SF schools (although only some in the public schools), so I'm really hoping this can stay true. 

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12 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

I’m confused, and the article didn’t clear it up. How does one just “pause“ deliveries of babies? It’s not like the babies are going to get the memo and just wait. Obviously, babies can be born at home and will come wherever the mom happens to be, but I presume they must have some kind of other plan than just telling the moms not to come in.

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1 minute ago, KSera said:

I’m confused, and the article didn’t clear it up. How does one just “pause“ deliveries of babies? It’s not like the babies are going to get the memo and just wait. Obviously, babies can be born at home and will come wherever the mom happens to be, but I presume they must have some kind of other plan than just telling the moms not to come in.

I caught a quick second if this on TV today and I think they said they were not letting in maternity patients because they didn't have the staff. 

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15 minutes ago, KSera said:

I’m confused, and the article didn’t clear it up. How does one just “pause“ deliveries of babies? It’s not like the babies are going to get the memo and just wait. Obviously, babies can be born at home and will come wherever the mom happens to be, but I presume they must have some kind of other plan than just telling the moms not to come in.

I presume they will send them elsewhere. Hopefully it's not too long of a drive.  

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