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At what point would you lock down again?


Not_a_Number

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13 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Like, inside a boat? Or outside on a boat?

I have the impression that they all stayed on the boat together, for at least a week. So tight quarters. My sailing experience is limited, but this particular cousin sails all over the world - I get the feeling there’s a general shuffling around regarding who is on each boat, and it’s not always a static pod type scenario. It seems like a recipe for transmission.

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30 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

I think you had to think ahead and buy them before things started getting crazy.  I still have them in my area. They were easy to get over summer.  On a lot of boards people were thinking ahead to school starting and buying a lot of them, that and the surges and I think they are harder to get now. Can you search other stores around you?  Ebay?  Amazon?  Anyone you know in a different area that could buy them for you?   Try different stores not just the main ones people think of?  Walmart, Walgreens, Cvs?

It’s crazy how expensive they are, though. I “stocked up” by buying two boxes, because $40 seemed like enough to spend for “just in case” tests. But now I can see how quickly those could be gone if we needed them. It’s a big failure that we don’t have cheap or free rapid testing. We do have free PCR and we would always follow up with that, but there are situations rapid would be good, and if rates get bad, the free testing might be hard to access. 

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3 minutes ago, KSera said:

It’s crazy how expensive they are, though. I “stocked up” by buying two boxes, because $40 seemed like enough to spend for “just in case” tests. But now I can see how quickly those could be gone if we needed them. It’s a big failure that we don’t have cheap or free rapid testing. We do have free PCR and we would always follow up with that, but there are situations rapid would be good, and if rates get bad, the free testing might be hard to access. 

I know right?  People who were buying them to stock up before school started were saying that.  What if you wanted to just randomly test your kid every week or whatever?  That would add up really fast.  They need them to be cheap.  Like a pregnancy test at the Dollar Store.    And if you are testing a big family, after traveling, to go meet your elders, or if you get an exposure?  That adds up fast.

PCR testing is hard in to get in my town.  The last I looked it wasn't anywhere at all.  I think they are relying on the University in full.   I would have to go an hour away to get a PCR.

Edited by mommyoffive
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6 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

I know right?  People who were buying them to stock up before school started were saying that.  What if you wanted to just randomly test your kid every week or whatever?  That would add up really fast.  They need them to be cheap.  Like a pregnancy test at the Dollar Store.    And if you are testing a big family, after traveling, to go meet your elders, or if you get an exposure?  That adds up fast.

PCR testing is hard in to get in my town.  The last I looked it wasn't anywhere at all.  I think they are relying on the University in full.   I would have to go an hour away to get a PCR.

I agree on the Dollar Store pricing. I'd probably pay $16-$20 a month to test everyone in my household once a week, but I wouldn't for $40 a person (even if we could get them - and I haven't found any recently).

We've got too many ways that Covid can sneak in to be nonchalant about one of us contracting it even though we're all vaccinated. I don't know other than the urgent care where to go for testing anymore - vaccination popups are out and about, but I haven't seen anything about testing lately.

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1 hour ago, historically accurate said:

I agree on the Dollar Store pricing. I'd probably pay $16-$20 a month to test everyone in my household once a week, but I wouldn't for $40 a person (even if we could get them - and I haven't found any recently).

We've got too many ways that Covid can sneak in to be nonchalant about one of us contracting it even though we're all vaccinated. I don't know other than the urgent care where to go for testing anymore - vaccination popups are out and about, but I haven't seen anything about testing lately.

CVS and Walgreens?  Does Walmart do it?

Does your Department of Health have a website that lists locations?

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re access to in-home tests in areas where local stores don't have them

3 hours ago, regentrude said:

So HOW should one get one, if they are sold out everywhere?

My husband recently ordered 2 sets of 2 (PCR and antigen) from CVS so as to have some on hand.  It said to expect delays (as it does right now) but they arrived within a few days.

https://www.cvs.com/shop/content/at-home-covid-tests-education?icid=coronavirus-lp-nav-home-testing

We have pretty easy access to self-referred in-person testing here, so I don't know quite what circumstance we'd use them, but having them on hand seemed to ease his mind a bit. 

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16 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

It looks like US numbers are tapering off slightly on worldometer?  Would that make sense?

Some of the recently hardest hit places have hit their peaks...I think the big question is whether the places with higher vaccination rates can avoid similar surges as school starts up (school tends to start earliest in the south, in places where vaccination rates are lowest, very generally speaking). 

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4 minutes ago, kokotg said:

Some of the recently hardest hit places have hit their peaks...I think the big question is whether the places with higher vaccination rates can avoid similar surges as school starts up (school tends to start earliest in the south, in places where vaccination rates are lowest, very generally speaking). 

I tend to assume there will be surges everywhere, especially since the vaccines for the highest-risk populations will be wearing off by then and they haven't approved boosters early enough 😕. Israel just did this experiment, frankly. 

I also do wonder about the Southern states -- schools juuuust opened, so it's possible the spread from that will delay the peaks. But I dunno about that. 

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Just now, Not_a_Number said:

I tend to assume there will be surges everywhere, especially since the vaccines for the highest-risk populations will be wearing off by then and they haven't approved boosters early enough 😕. Israel just did this experiment, frankly. 

I also do wonder about the Southern states -- schools juuuust opened, so it's possible the spread from that will delay the peaks. But I dunno about that. 

We've been open for a month here...I saw a prediction today that the peak should be mid-September to October (we're definitely still climbing right now)...but no one really knows, of course. 

 

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8 hours ago, rebcoola said:

Yes we are basically out ambulances to.   Places like covid act now show more beds but our health department says there are only 391 beds total with staffing.  Over 100 people are the hospital with Covid that number has stayed pretty consistent because that's all they can really take.  People are being diverted and moved 5 hours away into Idaho.  A teengirl died in transport after accident you definitely  wonder if she would have lived if things were different.  All elective surgeries are canceled.  

 

It's interesting that your state is still able to send patients to Idaho, because the governor there just called out the National Guard & federal help to assist the hospitals. The state has (apparently) only 4 ICU beds left and is "dangerously close to care rationing". 

And Idaho's surge is just getting started. Oy veh.

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6 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

I haven’t seen much like that even in Australia. They seem EXTREMELY rare.

Not outside, but our Quarantine facilities have been refit to have negative pressure in all rooms so the air only flows out the air vents. So last month, a positive case gave it to the person across the hall before they knew the positive person was positive. Neither had been out of their rooms because they hadn't had their first day 3 test yet, and the only contact was the Positive person opening their door for 3-5 seconds to get their food, and then 3 minutes later the negative person opening his door for 3-5 seconds. They know this through CCTV. In that very short time, the positive person gave it to the negative person and they know this because the cases are a genomic match and no one else in the country had the variant. 

Edited by lewelma
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There is also a strong probability that the current outbreak is due to outside exposure (although somewhat enclosed - no walls but an Atrium roof). The case was in the quarantine hotel, and all the border workers (who are all vaccinated and wear full PPE) have tested negative. There is no one else in the country with the variant earlier than this guy -- he has to be the index case. There is a walkway near the quarantine facility atrium that the public uses. Although they have tracked down half of the people they knew used the walkway based on CCTV around the time the positive case was outside (only for a transfer between facilities so not long), there are still 3 people they cannot find. That is currently their best lead. 

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Pediatric cases in Arkansas are now 30% of all Covid cases.

In Spokane, WA, six children are in critical care due to Covid

Pediatric Covid-19 hospitalizations in Florida reach record highs

AAP Study: Myocarditis risk 37 times higher for children with Covid-19

85 pediatric patients hospitalized with Covid-19 in North Texas

I could post more, but it's too depressing. Child deaths from Covid-19 are now also being reported in several states.

Seriously, what the f*ck is wrong with this country? People ranting about their "freedom" while hospitals start overflowing with children.

Yeah, we're locking down again. 

Edited by Happy2BaMom
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22 minutes ago, Happy2BaMom said:

Pediatric cases in Arkansas are now 30% of all Covid cases.

In Spokane, WA, six children are in critical care due to Covid

Pediatric Covid-19 hospitalizations in Florida reach record highs

AAP Study: Myocarditis risk 37 times higher for children with Covid-19

85 pediatric patients hospitalized with Covid-19 in North Texas

I could post more, but it's too depressing. Child deaths from Covid-19 are now also being reported in several states.

Seriously, what the f*ck is wrong with this country? People ranting about their "freedom" while hospitals start overflowing with children.

Yeah, we're locking down again. 

Our local children's hospital reported it's first pediatric Covid death tonight.  Though the death didn't happen tonight - it was sometime last week.  No details were given. 

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5 hours ago, kokotg said:

We've been open for a month here...I saw a prediction today that the peak should be mid-September to October (we're definitely still climbing right now)...but no one really knows, of course. 

 

My niece has been in school in GA for a full month tomorrow. She’s awaiting results from a second Covid test already. Not just as a contact precaution, but from being ill a second time. She’s a 1st grader, and this is just her life now.  
(Masks are worn in her school.)

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The school system in my county just released their Covid numbers for last week. They serve just shy of 19,000 students. There were 272 confirmed positive cases and they have another 1447 students in quarantine due to exposure. So if I'm doing my math right that means a smidge over 9 percent of students are quarantined (positives + exposures) at the moment. There are 47 confirmed staff positives and another 22 in quarantine due to exposure. The overwhelming majority of cases are in middle and high schools.

FWIW, they started school w/o masks being required and switched to mandatory masking after the first week. The numbers above are for the second week of school.

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My friend did take her kids out of school, will somehow homeschool while working full time and paying for a babysitter. But when she went to notify the preschool her younger one goes to that they are homeschooling (she pulled them last week when her older one was ill - they all tested negative) the school told her, "Oh, we were trying to reach you - your son had a positive kid in his class". Turns out the potential exposure was actually when her kid was already out of school, thankfully!

Also, reading an article about breaking a record for pediatric hospitalizations two days in a row, and a doctor describing sick kids who are scared and have no family with them because their family is also hospitalized in a different hospital, and THEN reading DeathSantis's statement of "kids don't get very sick" makes me want to hurt him. 

 

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6 hours ago, Happy2BaMom said:

Pediatric cases in Arkansas are now 30% of all Covid cases.

In Spokane, WA, six children are in critical care due to Covid

Pediatric Covid-19 hospitalizations in Florida reach record highs

AAP Study: Myocarditis risk 37 times higher for children with Covid-19

85 pediatric patients hospitalized with Covid-19 in North Texas

I could post more, but it's too depressing. Child deaths from Covid-19 are now also being reported in several states.

Seriously, what the f*ck is wrong with this country? People ranting about their "freedom" while hospitals start overflowing with children.

Yeah, we're locking down again. 

I wonder if there's any point at which the skeptics will be like, "huh--maybe pediatric deaths ARE kind of a big deal after all!" The AAP reported more than 10% of all the pediatric deaths for the whole pandemic in a 2 week period in August (47). That's on pace to be about the same number as yearly cancer deaths in kids 0-14. 

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18 minutes ago, kokotg said:

I wonder if there's any point at which the skeptics will be like, "huh--maybe pediatric deaths ARE kind of a big deal after all!" The AAP reported more than 10% of all the pediatric deaths for the whole pandemic in a 2 week period in August (47). That's on pace to be about the same number as yearly cancer deaths in kids 0-14. 

I used to think they might/would, but now I really don't know. I really think it's possible that hundreds of thousands of more people will just die, that hundreds of thousands of children will become ill (with some dying), and....life will just continue as is for many of the people in this country, even if they happen at some point to be personally affected. Ideology trumps everything.

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What's going on with Israel? And what does it mean for the US? - by Katelyn Jetelina - Your Local Epidemiologist (substack.com)

In my post Monday, many noticed the high case rate in Israel. Israel now has one of the worst rates of COVID-19 per million in the entire world.

For those of you following along, this should be a surprise given that Israel was a global leader in vaccine administration. In fact, their vaccination rate today is one of the highest in the world: 75% of the eligible population.

 

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49 minutes ago, Happy2BaMom said:

I used to think they might/would, but now I really don't know. I really think it's possible that hundreds of thousands of more people will just die, that hundreds of thousands of children will become ill (with some dying), and....life will just continue as is for many of the people in this country, even if they happen at some point to be personally affected. Ideology trumps everything.

I think this is somewhat true--the let 'er rip people are getting their way. However, I think that if northern states watch and start implementing mask mandates in schools, it could be less dire or at least unfold more slowly than in the south. 

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2 hours ago, kbutton said:

I think this is somewhat true--the let 'er rip people are getting their way. However, I think that if northern states watch and start implementing mask mandates in schools, it could be less dire or at least unfold more slowly than in the south. 

Our state has at least finally mandated masks in schools - I'm still not sure that will be enough with full classrooms of unvaxxed under 12s, and also no general mask mandates (so if the kids bring it home to the parents and they go shopping or to the gym without masks...).  More people are wearing masks in stores now, but the gyms/fitness studios seem to think exercise alone will ward off Covid.

I certainly do hope that with higher levels of vaccination and masks in schools it will be less dire than the south, but I think we shouldn't think this alone will prevent a significant Delta surge without universal masking and more distancing.

Kids go back to school later this week...

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20 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

That’s still my impression, yeah. So far, outdoor spread has seemed either long term or crowded with a roof.

A colleague who was at home in Greece this summer believes he caught Covid from his son, who was at summer camp.  The camp was entirely outside - Greek weather - but probably not fully distanced.  The son wasn't vaccinated but the parents and grandmother were fully jabbed.  All of the adults developed Covid, the grandmother experiencing the worst symptoms, but none were hospitalised and all have recovered fully.

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3 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

What's going on with Israel? And what does it mean for the US? - by Katelyn Jetelina - Your Local Epidemiologist (substack.com)

In my post Monday, many noticed the high case rate in Israel. Israel now has one of the worst rates of COVID-19 per million in the entire world.

For those of you following along, this should be a surprise given that Israel was a global leader in vaccine administration. In fact, their vaccination rate today is one of the highest in the world: 75% of the eligible population.

Yes, I've been watching that situation. And they don't have a low death rate, either. As I mentioned elsewhere (not sure if it was in this thread), that's why I tend to assume the highly vaccinated states won't do well with schools reopening -- obviously, you can have really high rates of COVID and even death with lots vaccination, provided the vaccination has already waned, especially in the high-risk groups...

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25 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

Our state has at least finally mandated masks in schools - I'm still not sure that will be enough with full classrooms of unvaxxed under 12s, and also no general mask mandates (so if the kids bring it home to the parents and they go shopping or to the gym without masks...).  More people are wearing masks in stores now, but the gyms/fitness studios seem to think exercise alone will ward off Covid.

I certainly do hope that with higher levels of vaccination and masks in schools it will be less dire than the south, but I think we shouldn't think this alone will prevent a significant Delta surge without universal masking and more distancing.

Kids go back to school later this week...

And aren't we seeing kids being vectors with Delta, whereas in previous waves, it's been more community spread creeping into schools? That's a big difference. (ETA: a negative one)

I have been hoping that people will reluctantly start to mask again when it gets bad enough. Previous surges here have looked like that--people stopped just short of overwhelming the hospitals. I think a lot of the middle of the road people became more cautious. 

I think it's possible; I am not sure how likely it is. 

Schools here are one by one closing for a few days and going back with mask mandates in place. It seems to be how our state does stuff--watch enough people touch the hot stove, and then touch a slightly less hot stove sort of gingerly, lol! 

Edited by kbutton
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13 hours ago, Happy2BaMom said:

It's interesting that your state is still able to send patients to Idaho, because the governor there just called out the National Guard & federal help to assist the hospitals. The state has (apparently) only 4 ICU beds left and is "dangerously close to care rationing". 

And Idaho's surge is just getting started. Oy veh.

They aren't today they reported its now Utah.  So like 7 or 8 hour diversion to find care.  Asking people to do 2 of 3 masks, distance, shots at all times.  Which is unfortunately unlikely by most here.  There is a statewide mask mandate but our area hates the governor and many actively and openly defy orders and harass people  who do follow orders 😞

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Someone on FB posted this... The poster asked a friend, who teaches middle school, how the year was starting off.

He replied that there were lots of staff meetings with Q&A to talk about things would work this year. For example, one teacher had asked, "Can I prop my classroom door open for ventilation?" and was told no, because that door is your defense against an active shooter.

So, reflected the person posting, that's how it's going in US schools  right now.

 

 

My household's points of vulnerability right now are scouts (strictly masked and mostly outdoors), a one-hour class (strictly masked and mostly indoors), and the gym (people flouting the mandate even though we're there for our health, two weekday mornings ~5:40-6 AM). Weekly forays into the grocery store where we've observed the best masking. Occasional outdoor gatherings with 2-3 friends. We're all at home most of the time, so if one of us brings it home, we'll all be exposed.

We can't switch physical activity to outdoors yet because it's too hot and humid (presently the heat index is in the 90s and it's raining intermittently). We're vaccinated--in retrospect, I guess it's good we were last priority, so we should still be decently protected. I don't know what else to do.

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20 minutes ago, Carolina Wren said:

Someone on FB posted this... The poster asked a friend, who teaches middle school, how the year was starting off.

He replied that there were lots of staff meetings with Q&A to talk about things would work this year. For example, one teacher had asked, "Can I prop my classroom door open for ventilation?" and was told no, because that door is your defense against an active shooter.

So, reflected the person posting, that's how it's going in US schools  right now.

 

 

My household's points of vulnerability right now are scouts (strictly masked and mostly outdoors), a one-hour class (strictly masked and mostly indoors), and the gym (people flouting the mandate even though we're there for our health, two weekday mornings ~5:40-6 AM). Weekly forays into the grocery store where we've observed the best masking. Occasional outdoor gatherings with 2-3 friends. We're all at home most of the time, so if one of us brings it home, we'll all be exposed.

We can't switch physical activity to outdoors yet because it's too hot and humid (presently the heat index is in the 90s and it's raining intermittently). We're vaccinated--in retrospect, I guess it's good we were last priority, so we should still be decently protected. I don't know what else to do.

The gym seems like the biggest issue and a trainwreck waiting to happen. Unmasked people and heavy breathing? Can you get an online subscription to a workout program for a while? There are so many options now!

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29 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

What medical condition that impacts mask wearing is a chiropractor qualified to diagnose and write a letter about?!?!

https://www.13abc.com/2021/08/31/hundreds-line-up-have-florida-chiropractor-sign-mask-opt-out-forms-schoolchildren/

I can't imagine one, unless it's an existing diagnosis from another provider. If that's the case though, I would think that they'd get the excuse from that provider unless they've moved or something since the diagnosis was established. Crazy! I am glad the district is looking into it. 

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5 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Yes, I've been watching that situation. And they don't have a low death rate, either. As I mentioned elsewhere (not sure if it was in this thread), that's why I tend to assume the highly vaccinated states won't do well with schools reopening -- obviously, you can have really high rates of COVID and even death with lots vaccination, provided the vaccination has already waned, especially in the high-risk groups...

I am kind of worried because our reopening schedule will likely mean those vaccinated early/first will be just hitting that waning immunity thing right around that time when we have 70% vaccinated.  At this point I haven’t heard anyone official even mention it so doubtful they are making plans around that.  

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https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2112981#.YTADVsuo4fM.twitter
 

Did this study get shared?

“The dramatic change in vaccine effectiveness from June to July is likely to be due to both the emergence of the delta variant and waning immunity over time, compounded by the end of masking requirements in California and the resulting greater risk of exposure in the community. Our findings underline the importance of rapidly reinstating nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as indoor masking and intensive testing strategies, in addition to continued efforts to increase vaccinations, as strategies to prevent avoidable illness and deaths and to avoid mass disruptions to society during the spread of this formidable variant. Furthermore, if our findings on waning immunity are verified in other settings, booster doses may be indicated.”


I feel like our government is sleep walking right now on this stuff.  No one here is talking about it.  They’re all ra-ra 70pc and open up!

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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2112981#.YTADVsuo4fM.twitter
 

Did this study get shared?

“The dramatic change in vaccine effectiveness from June to July is likely to be due to both the emergence of the delta variant and waning immunity over time, compounded by the end of masking requirements in California and the resulting greater risk of exposure in the community. Our findings underline the importance of rapidly reinstating nonpharmaceutical interventions, such as indoor masking and intensive testing strategies, in addition to continued efforts to increase vaccinations, as strategies to prevent avoidable illness and deaths and to avoid mass disruptions to society during the spread of this formidable variant. Furthermore, if our findings on waning immunity are verified in other settings, booster doses may be indicated.”


I feel like our government is sleep walking right now on this stuff.  No one here is talking about it.  They’re all ra-ra 70pc and open up!

Immunity will have waned for people who got early vaccinations in the 1A group - the most vulnerable by age or occupation. They were Feb/March, I think. 

My second shot was in June. I am hoping for a booster early in '22. But yes, no discussion of boosters. 

 

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