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At what point would you lock down again?


Not_a_Number

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I am sure I'm partially coming from the perspective of someone who's generally willing to do radical stuff. I had NEVER expected to homeschool. I homeschooled because it was clear DD9 would prefer it. I'm good at radical changes of course if need be. And I do think that for some of the families I know, the correct answer is to keep their kids home somehow for another few months. 

But it probably feels hard to do given the social pressures. 

ETA: And I'm not talking about kids for whom the trade-off is clearly towards dealing with the mental health challenges nor kids who are vaccinated. That's just different. 

Edited by Not_a_Number
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I guess what I mean is that I'm seeing people just kind of giving up. Our friends from Hebrew School are quite careful, but they want to do Hebrew School in person this year. Why?! Why do we need to do it inside, in-person, NOW? We already wrote to the organizers, telling them we will NOT do an indoor Hebrew School in the fall until the kids are vaccinated. We'll pay but we won't go. But I don't really get people who think it's a good idea. 

Edited by Not_a_Number
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I really feel for people with young kids who aren't homeschooled right now. I have no idea what I'd do if I were in that position, needed a second income, had kids who didn't do well with online school, etc. Here there was also a bait and switch situation in a lot of school systems; parents had to decide last spring whether to do virtual or in person school this fall, and, at the time, there were a lot of safety precautions in place that are no longer there. Once it was clear that schools would be opening without the same precautions they took last year, parents were told it was too late to change; the virtual programs were all full. 

I'm making different decisions now than I did last year, although mostly for my vaccinated older kids, partially because this has gone on so long already and I don't know that it's going to change much in the foreseeable future (with the important exception that younger kids will be able to get vaccinated) and partially because all of the highest risk people in our family and in our community have been able to get vaccinated. And also because we made a lot of the choices back when I was assuming/hoping that numbers would stay good into the fall and that my youngest would be able to be vaccinated by early fall. 

Edited by kokotg
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1 minute ago, kokotg said:

I'm making different decisions now than I did last year, although mostly for my vaccinated older kids, partially because this has gone on so long already and I don't know that it's going to change much in the foreseeable future (with the important exception that younger kids will be able to get vaccinated) and partially because all of the highest risk people in our family and in our community have been able to get vaccinated. And also because we made a lot of the choices back when I was assuming/hoping that numbers would stay good into the fall and that my youngest would be able to be vaccinated by early fall. 

I'm really not talking about vaccinated kids here. I'd send my vaccinated kids to school, assume they'll get COVID, and get it over with. But I get the sense that people who are sending their kids to school right now think there isn't a huge chance they'll get COVID. Which there is. Either they'll probably get COVID, or they'll probably go virtual soon enough. If one is OK with those possibilities, then I have no objections. But I have the sense that people aren't being clear-eyed. 

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1 minute ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

Yeah, it's bad. No good choices. Either you expose your child to COVID or you keep them away from other children. I'm convinced that virtual socializing is insufficient for children. I think it's fine for grown ups, especially those of us who are introverts. 

I believe that parents can adequately homeschool their children but I suspect that virtual schooling was a disaster for most kids. I know the argument that kids can easily catch up but I'm not sure that's going to be possible for many (most?) kids. 

I did think that virtual schooling was basically a disaster for most kids. We hated most Zoom classes, although we did find some we liked a lot eventually (largely by having me run them, but whatever.) 

I don't think virtual socializing is sufficient, but I do think right now isn't even the time for mask mandates. It's the time to take all the kids to the park and teach them there 😛 . 

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1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

I'm really not talking about vaccinated kids here. I'd send my vaccinated kids to school, assume they'll get COVID, and get it over with. But I get the sense that people who are sending their kids to school right now think there isn't a huge chance they'll get COVID. Which there is. Either they'll probably get COVID, or they'll probably go virtual soon enough. If one is OK with those possibilities, then I have no objections. But I have the sense that people aren't being clear-eyed. 

I'm on a local "pro-science" facebook group here that talks about the situation in our local schools, and the sense I get from those people (who are not a representative sample of the population as a whole) is that they DO think there's a huge chance their kids will get covid, they're really, really mad about it, but they also feel sort of trapped and desperate. Even within that group there's certainly a range of opinions on what should be done; they're all fighting for mask mandates at a minimum. But I do think there's a good bit of magical thinking that masks will fix everything when they almost certainly won't be enough with delta to contend with. But just getting and keeping a mask mandate is already such a big fight here. 

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https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-health-education-florida-coronavirus-pandemic-1908088a0b5c5b02d89fd7e007822408

The judge also noted that two Florida Supreme Court decisions from 1914 and 1939 found that individual rights are limited by their impact on the rights of others. For example, he said, adults have the right to drink alcohol but not to drive drunk, because that endangers others. There is a right to free speech, but not to harass or threaten others or yell “fire” in a crowded theater, he said.

In that same vein, he said, school boards can reasonably argue that maskless students endanger the health of other students and teachers.

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9 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

Staying home wasn't so hard for us when DD was younger. 

But I'm talking about kids who are DD's age or younger. 

Some of them are worried about losing their spots are preferred schools, to be fair. But I also think there's a lot of magical thinking going on 😕 . 

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Just now, Ordinary Shoes said:

Yeah, I agree that mask mandates are a kind of magical thinking but at least it's something. It wouldn't be enough in a place that did more. But our school won't even do a mask mandate. 

And also people need to do something. Getting a mask mandate is a concrete thing that will help. Maybe not enough but it will be better than no mandate. 

 

yes, absolutely. I just posted a chart on the face to face schools thread where someone compiled the data on all the systems in the metro Atlanta area, and the difference between systems with and without mask mandates is pretty clear. But the numbers in all the schools, with or without masks, are so much scarier than last year (and so much worse than the communities as a whole, even though those numbers are ALSO bad right now). 

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2 minutes ago, kokotg said:

yes, absolutely. I just posted a chart on the face to face schools thread where someone compiled the data on all the systems in the metro Atlanta area, and the difference between systems with and without mask mandates is pretty clear. But the numbers in all the schools, with or without masks, are so much scarier than last year (and so much worse than the communities as a whole, even though those numbers are ALSO bad right now). 

So how do the numbers compare? How much worse are they? Give me a sample... 

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1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

So how do the numbers compare? How much worse are they? Give me a sample... 

Here, I'll post the chart here, too (this is what I put in the other thread. Disclaimer is that I haven't verified any of her numbers, but it's all publicly available info):

 

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2 minutes ago, kokotg said:

Here, I'll post the chart here, too (this is what I put in the other thread. Disclaimer is that I haven't verified any of her numbers, but it's all publicly available info):

 

 

Wow. Striking. Also, the numbers are scary. These are WEEKLY numbers?? 

Oh, biweekly, I see. A bit better, I guess. But still really scary. 

Edited by Not_a_Number
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4 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Man, what is supposed to happen with 1% of the student body testing positive in 2 weeks?? And that's in masked schools... 

Nothing, apparently; you just soldier on! They're not really quarantining close contacts this year, either. Except sometimes they are, but it seems random or at least not at all transparent. Like they'll send a whole grade at one school virtual for 2 weeks, but then do nothing in other schools with huge numbers. They quarantined the football team at my husband's school, but not anyone else, and then also they could come back if they proved they'd been vaccinated (which I'm not necessarily against; maybe people will actually get their kids vaccinated if football is on the line)

Edited by kokotg
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3 minutes ago, kokotg said:

Nothing, apparently; you just soldier on! They're not really quarantining close contacts this year, either. Except sometimes they are, but it seems random or at least not at all transparent. Like they'll send a whole grade at one school virtual for 2 weeks, but then do nothing in other schools with huge numbers. They quarantined the football team at my husband's school, but not anyone else, and then also they could come back if they proved they'd been vaccinated (which I'm not necessarily against; maybe people will actually get their kids vaccinated if football is on the line)

Right. So what's going to happen is that this is going to rip through the schools. Why are we doing this experiment on our kids?? 

Wasn't someone just talking about post-polio syndrome a few days ago? The one that only shows up a few years later? It'll be just great to discover that something like this happens with COVID in a few years... 

I'm sorry. I feel bummed and mad 😕 . 

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16 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Right. So what's going to happen is that this is going to rip through the schools. Why are we doing this experiment on our kids?? 

Wasn't someone just talking about post-polio syndrome a few days ago? The one that only shows up a few years later? It'll be just great to discover that something like this happens with COVID in a few years... 

I'm sorry. I feel bummed and mad 😕 . 

Because the other experiment, the one where we closed schools for a year, didn’t work out well either as far as I can tell. Every country I know has prioritized opening the schools. Which is what we should do, as well. 

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41 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

But I'm talking about kids who are DD's age or younger. 

Some of them are worried about losing their spots are preferred schools, to be fair. But I also think there's a lot of magical thinking going on 😕 . 

I see the magical thinking in my northern peeps, too. They have all the resources to make different decisions but are not willing to do so.

Like you, I am not afraid of making radical decisions if that is what is called for. But these folks are not ok with making radical decisions.

I have all sorts of opinions on their choices that I keep to myself. I just hope they don't get burned by their choices. 

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1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

. But I have the sense that people aren't being clear-eyed. 

So one of my best friends has 2 kids who are very close friends to my younger 2 kids. Last year, she kept them both at home. I understand sending the vaccinated 15 year old back to school this year, but she wanted to keep her unvaccinated 8 year old home. She and her husband both have blue collar jobs, but they work opposite shifts so someone is always available to be with the kids. 
 

But, like was mentioned earlier, no online options were available at her home school. The separate online school thing has no teachers here. The people who signed up have been told one week into the school year, “We will let you know when we get a teacher. Don’t call us, we’ll call you.”

That doesn’t seem like an option. My friend is very, very cautious, and yet, when I told her that I didn’t realize her daughter was in school in person, she said, “I gave her a necklace that is supposed to keep her from getting sick, so hopefully that will help” 

So I agree that some people don’t feel like they have a choice and also that some people aren’t being very clear-eyed about it. 

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27 minutes ago, madteaparty said:

Because the other experiment, the one where we closed schools for a year, didn’t work out well either as far as I can tell. Every country I know has prioritized opening the schools. Which is what we should do, as well. 

Well, I'd love to see an experiment where we actually did everything we could reasonably do to make schools safe, and I definitely haven't seen that--particularly this year--where I am. Of course, schools were never closed for a year here, either. But having covid rip through schools uncontrolled is really disruptive and overtaxes local health care systems at best (i.e. in the absence of kids dying or having bad long term health outcomes). It makes no sense at all not to do what we can to keep spread low. 

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1 hour ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

Staying home wasn't so hard for us when DD was younger. 

It's hard to keep going. Many people are at the breaking point, damn the torpedoes, full speed ahead! I see this with some families that used to be so cautious. They're done, emotionally exhausted. I think that might describe us too. You look at the state of the world and it's terrible. It's just so much. Maybe ballet classes will help, KWIM? Maybe a vacation? And once you open up the door, it's easier to do the next thing. 

Plus it's so hard to have done the right thing for a year while everyone else went about their business. I think that's beat people down too. 

Yep.  Last year we had the hope that we just had to hold out for a vaccine.  Now it seems that still doesn’t solve things so people are done waiting around.

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1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

Man, what is supposed to happen with 1% of the student body testing positive in 2 weeks?? And that's in masked schools... 

I don't know about every system with mask mandates, but I can say that in my husband's school system there is a mask mandate (which will go away if numbers go under 100/100,000...which isn't actually particularly low), but aside from that they're being less rigorous about precautions than they were last year (and I wasn't thrilled with a lot of stuff they did--or didn't do--then). Most notable is the not quarantining close contacts thing, but there's other stuff, too and also just a general shift in attitude. Last year all staff meetings were online; this year they're in person (and my husband got his very first high risk contact notice of the whole pandemic from a department meeting during pre-planning). He's still very strict about enforcing correct mask wearing but gets the sense that a lot of teachers are sort of over it and sees lots of maskless kids in the hallway, at after school stuff, etc. They're no longer distancing in the cafeteria, either. It's just way different and more lax, at a time when it needs to be the opposite if they want to get through this surge without shutting down.

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40 minutes ago, madteaparty said:

Because the other experiment, the one where we closed schools for a year, didn’t work out well either as far as I can tell. Every country I know has prioritized opening the schools. Which is what we should do, as well. 

I am not arguing that schools should be closed this year, per se. I thought virtual schooling was basically a failure from everything people told me. 

But it seems like people are moving full steam ahead in a way that doesn't take into account the fact that things are now much more contagious and that we're NOT better off. 

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2 minutes ago, kokotg said:

I don't know about every system with mask mandates, but I can say that in my husband's school system there is a mask mandate (which will go away if numbers go under 100/100,000...which isn't actually particularly low), but aside from that they're being less rigorous about precautions than they were last year (and I wasn't thrilled with a lot of stuff they did--or didn't do--then). Most notable is the not quarantining close contacts thing, but there's other stuff, too and also just a general shift in attitude. Last year all staff meetings were online; this year they're in person (and my husband got his very first high risk contact notice of the whole pandemic from a department meeting during pre-planning). He's still very strict about enforcing correct mask wearing but gets the sense that a lot of teachers are sort of over it and sees lots of maskless kids in the hallway, at after school stuff, etc. They're no longer distancing in the cafeteria, either. It's just way different and more lax, at a time when it needs to be the opposite if they want to get through this surge without shutting down.

Exactly. That's the feeling I get, too. That people are tired of being worried and aren't willing to do this last stretch in the optimal way. 

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Even the very cautious people here are done and are sending their kids back to in person school or daycare for the most part. I am sympathetic to people's childcare issues. My DH has been working from home since March 2020 with no end in sight, and that's ONLY feasible because I stay home and can take care of DS5, DS3, and DD1. We could not both work from home and sustain that for any significant length of time. 

I'm allowing outdoor activities for my kids for now and hoping that will be okay. 

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Just now, BaseballandHockey said:

We are still pretty cautious here, and have made very careful choices, but having a vaccine that provides substantial protection to the most vulnerable definitely makes me better off.

I am sending my kids to the safest school I can find, but I am sending  them because of vaccines.  Another year at home would either financially devastate us or mental health devastate us, but I would make that choice if the risk to my loved ones were as high as it was this time last year (not including the risk to DS2).

I'm worried about vaccine immunity wearing off, to be honest 😕 . I wish they'd do boosters for older people now. 

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13 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I'm worried about vaccine immunity wearing off, to be honest 😕 . I wish they'd do boosters for older people now. 

 

10 minutes ago, BaseballandHockey said:

I do too, I would love a booster for Pop, but it’s coming and the evidence isn’t that it disappears at this point, just that it wanes.

Yesterday’s news, possibility of shortening to 5 months

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-says-discussing-timeline-covid-booster-shots-2021-08-27/

”WASHINGTON, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Federal health authorities are discussing shortening the timeline for COVID-19 booster shots to allow additional doses sooner than the eight-month window officials have been targeting, President Joe Biden said on Friday.

For now, the planned timeline remains in place for adults to have another dose of the vaccine eight months after the original inoculation, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said at a news briefing later on Friday.

The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday said U.S. regulators could approve a third COVID-19 shot of the two-dose Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) and Pfizer Inc-BioNTech AG (PFE.N)(22UAy.DE) beginning at least six months after full vaccination.

"The question raised is: should it be shorter than eight months, should it be as little as five months? That's being discussed," Biden told reporters at the White House, adding that he had discussed the issue with his chief medical officer, Dr. Anthony Fauci, earlier on Friday.”

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1 minute ago, Arcadia said:

 

Yesterday’s news, possibility of shortening to 5 months

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-says-discussing-timeline-covid-booster-shots-2021-08-27/

”WASHINGTON, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Federal health authorities are discussing shortening the timeline for COVID-19 booster shots to allow additional doses sooner than the eight-month window officials have been targeting, President Joe Biden said on Friday.

For now, the planned timeline remains in place for adults to have another dose of the vaccine eight months after the original inoculation, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said at a news briefing later on Friday.

The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday said U.S. regulators could approve a third COVID-19 shot of the two-dose Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) and Pfizer Inc-BioNTech AG (PFE.N)(22UAy.DE) beginning at least six months after full vaccination.

"The question raised is: should it be shorter than eight months, should it be as little as five months? That's being discussed," Biden told reporters at the White House, adding that he had discussed the issue with his chief medical officer, Dr. Anthony Fauci, earlier on Friday.”

As I've mentioned elsewhere, I've actually felt far better about the instincts of the politicians in this administration than I have about the stuff coming out of the supposedly scientific bodies. It's an odd feeling. 

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1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

Exactly. That's the feeling I get, too. That people are tired of being worried and aren't willing to do this last stretch in the optimal way. 

I think a lot of people aren’t convinced this is the “last stretch”. That by the time a vaccine is out for younger kids, there’ll be some other variant that won’t respond to it, or the vaccines will have lost efficacy - that there won’t be any end, just shifted goalposts.

“This was all supposed to be temporary,” they think. “Flatten the curve, then we can go back to normal.” followed by “Wait for a a vaccine, then we can go back to normal.” Things are not going back to normal. 

We don’t have the adrenaline rush of panic over Covid being a complete unknown. Community supports are gone. Many have been out of work, eaten through their savings, & are just getting back on their feet. Loved ones have been lost. Virtual schooling sucked. We’re all exhausted.  Being faced with needing to increase restrictions again, we all know exactly what that looks & feels like. People’s feelings range from disillusioned to indignant to defeated. I don’t agree with the conclusion some are clearly coming to that it’s a lost cause… but I can understand people’s frustration.

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Just now, Shoes+Ships+SealingWax said:

I think a lot of people aren’t convinced this is the “last stretch”. That by the time a vaccine is out for younger kids, there’ll be some other variant that won’t respond to it, or the vaccines will have lost efficacy - that there won’t be any end, just shifted goalposts.

I'm hoping not. But either way, after we get the vaccine for the kids, we're going to make different decisions. 

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1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

Exactly. That's the feeling I get, too. That people are tired of being worried and aren't willing to do this last stretch in the optimal way. 

What "last stretch "?

After the past 18 months, the one thing that has become clear is that the finish line is always moving. 2 weeks.... Oh, it will be over by summer... But the fall semester will be ok...but once we have vaccines! Yep, we got four weeks of relaxing out of the latter before we had to dial back everything because of delta.

With most of the world unvaccinated, the next variant is just a matter of time. Nobody knows that we'll have overcome the pandemic next spring.

Yes, I am tired of the whole thing, and I see not much of a chance of being able to abandon my precautions and returning to my normal any time soon. My entire covid risk budget is spent for work.

Edited by regentrude
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1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

I am not arguing that schools should be closed this year, per se. I thought virtual schooling was basically a failure from everything people told me. 

But it seems like people are moving full steam ahead in a way that doesn't take into account the fact that things are now much more contagious and that we're NOT better off. 

With respect to school: having the option to stay home with the kids is a huge privilege most folks don't have.

Even those working from home can't give 100% to their job while doing childcare and schooling.

It's been a nightmare for the parents who have to spend full workdays on the computer while their little kids need to be supervised and schooled. It cannot be done in most jobs. Your level of flexibility is a luxury most working parents don't have.

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34 minutes ago, regentrude said:

With respect to school: having the option to stay home with the kids is a huge privilege most folks don't have.

Even those working from home can't give 100% to their job while doing childcare and schooling.

It's been a nightmare for the parents who have to spend full workdays on the computer while their little kids need to be supervised and schooled. It cannot be done in most jobs. Your level of flexibility is a luxury most working parents don't have.

Just about everything on this wringing of hands “but it’s not SAFE!!” comes from an immense place of privilege. Like when people brag that they’re so safe because their groceries get delivered. Yeah, someone else is doing that work and taking that risk, how nice for you.

I don’t think we know the full extent of the damage of kids staying home, often alone, with parents working. I think it’s been horrific and i say this as a homeschooler. 

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2 hours ago, Arcadia said:

 

Yesterday’s news, possibility of shortening to 5 months

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/biden-says-discussing-timeline-covid-booster-shots-2021-08-27/

”WASHINGTON, Aug 27 (Reuters) - Federal health authorities are discussing shortening the timeline for COVID-19 booster shots to allow additional doses sooner than the eight-month window officials have been targeting, President Joe Biden said on Friday.

For now, the planned timeline remains in place for adults to have another dose of the vaccine eight months after the original inoculation, White House spokeswoman Jen Psaki said at a news briefing later on Friday.

The Wall Street Journal on Wednesday said U.S. regulators could approve a third COVID-19 shot of the two-dose Moderna Inc (MRNA.O) and Pfizer Inc-BioNTech AG (PFE.N)(22UAy.DE) beginning at least six months after full vaccination.

"The question raised is: should it be shorter than eight months, should it be as little as five months? That's being discussed," Biden told reporters at the White House, adding that he had discussed the issue with his chief medical officer, Dr. Anthony Fauci, earlier on Friday.”

I am really happy for the US for this but it also makes it unlikely that many parts of the world will get vaccine at all.

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School in my state (TN) started about 2-3 weeks ago and multiple school districts, as well as a number of individual schools, have already had to close because so many staff members are out with covid.  (Loads of students are out, too, but that's not why they're closing.)  

Some districts are sending administrative staff to cover classes and/or drive buses, and I've heard from friends with kids in school that classrooms are being combined when teachers are out.   

The state has prohibited districts from switching to virtual learning, so these schools are just closing completely for a week or two, using "stockpile"  (whatever that is) and/or inclement weather days. There is increasing pressure on the governor to allow some flexibility, but it is not clear how this is all going to shake out. 

 

 

 

 

Edited by JennyD
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9 minutes ago, madteaparty said:

Just about everything on this wringing of hands “but it’s not SAFE!!” comes from an immense place of privilege. Like when people brag that they’re so safe because their groceries get delivered. Yeah, someone else is doing that work and taking that risk, how nice for you.

I don’t think we know the full extent of the damage of kids staying home, often alone, with parents working. I think it’s been horrific and i say this as a homeschooler. 

This is why I am soooooo frustrated with people/schools/politicians pushing back against masking. No, masking does not offer perfect protection, but when done (nearly) universally, it is a great, cheap method to lower risk and keep kids in school and parents working.

People do tons of things every day that are not "safe", so I don't see that as a reason to keep all kids out of school when there are major societal reasons families need that service. It is exactly because it is so important to keep kids in schools that I see no reason not to layer as many protections as feasible to help that happen.

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28 minutes ago, BaseballandHockey said:

I agree with a lot of this, but I think the grocery workers who bring my food (from a grocery store that is a warehouse, no customers go in) are safer than they would be in a store with customers.  

Most likely it depends on your area. In the beginning our grocery stores had mask mandates for employees and customers. Eventually they added regular Covid testing for employees. Now many are vaccinated, masked and still tested regularly. 

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Looks like TN is backing off on not allowing virtual and giving some flexibility. We are in a very anti-mask/anti-vax area and our schools already had to close for two days and use inclement weather days. They closed because they didn’t have the staff. They really wouldn’t close unless there was just no way to open. They aren’t really doing any mitigation or contact tracing and the community is pretty comfortable with just letting it run through.

But just this evening the state put out a statement that they are allowing some flexibility for going virtual. 

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