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At what point would you lock down again?


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1 hour ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

We had six nurses quit the ER in the last 48 hours because they refuse to be vaccinated, which is now  required for health care workers in NY.  Honestly there’s just no winning for anyone.

There's been a protest in a city near me along these lines.  They quoted one protestor who said he has already had Covid and wants to decide on his own timeline whether or not to get vaxed.  Apparently there is no exception for people who have natural immunity.

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1 hour ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

We had six nurses quit the ER in the last 48 hours because they refuse to be vaccinated, which is now  required for health care workers in NY.  Honestly there’s just no winning for anyone.

Oh my gosh! This is just beyond the pale! It is going to be an apocalypse. I weep. It just hurts so much!

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20 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

How CDC data problems put the U.S. behind on the delta variant (msn.com)

 

ARGHGHGHGH.  Can I scream in here?  Gosh I am so dang frustrated.  I don't have a science or math background.  I am just a normal person who is trying to keep myself and family safe.  I was leaning on the CDC and WHO to keep me update with all the info that I needed in a situation like this.  I have been so let down with the CDC that I don't trust them anymore at all. 

I come to this board! So ya, when this forum has better and more accurate information than the damn CDC, we are all in a world of hurting! Thank heaven I was lurking here through the pandemic before actually coming back to post. Those Jan and Feb 2020 threads helped me prepare!

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1 hour ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

We had six nurses quit the ER in the last 48 hours because they refuse to be vaccinated, which is now  required for health care workers in NY.  Honestly there’s just no winning for anyone.

I have someone close to me that is not a nurse, but has direct patient contact and will be doing the same thing once a mandate comes through.  I refuse to discuss vaccines at this point though...for my sanity. 

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I think for many people that as an excuse, and they will switch excuses at that time.

A lot of people just flat out don’t want to do it, but they say whatever is currently the most acceptable reason to give.  
 

I think it is a sensible reason in some ways, but I think a lot of people giving it are not really sensible on this issue and won’t say “okay, now that the FDA approval is here, I will be vaccinated.”


I would be happy to be proven wrong, though.  

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If you are locking down, what is your end game?  Do you have younger kids and just want to get them vaccinated and then will stop locking down?  Waiting for this surge to be over?  Do you think you are going to be avoiding Delta?  

I am asking just because I need to figure out my end game if there is one.  I think I have come to the point where I think we can't avoid Delta.  I don't want it.  But I also don't want to lockdown again.  At least to the extreme we did before.  Although if things get a lot worse I know I will.  Things are bad, but not at where they were last winter yet.

 

Although my thoughts might change if our email last night turns leads us to having Covid.

Edited by mommyoffive
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1 minute ago, mommyoffive said:

If you are locking down, what is your end game?  Do you have younger kids and just want to get them vaccinated and then will stop locking down? 

Yes, that's our plan. I will adjust the plan if it looks like many people are getting long haul symptoms post-vaccination, though, but I'm hoping not. 

I am also going to get a booster as soon as they approve them. 

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I'm also not locking down fully until the numbers shoot up around here. I've already planned this fall to be all online, so I just need to limp into fall without getting sick. I'm going to take advantage of the good weather and the ability to meet outside, masked until the fall classes start out (at which point my kids will have chances for online socialization -- I've picked classes that will allow this to happen.) 

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1 hour ago, Seasider too said:

Yes it’s ragweed season here. I’ve been atop my allergy issues this year so it’s not too bad for me this season, but I can definitely tell it’s in the air. 

Ragweed is killing me at the moment. I am surviving on Benadryl, enough to drop a horse! I developed the very rare - yay for me I win 😥 - anaphylactic allergy to Allegra and also Zyrtec - Claritin does nothing for me, and Sudafed makes me sleepy no matter how long I use it for. I never adjust. But after a couple of weeks of Benadryl, I seem to adjust and can function.

My thoughts on this are that since covid doesn't make a person want to itch their eyes and nose off, make their face tingle, and make you sneeze 18-20 times in a row while begging the universe to please let the Benadryl kick in, and then all of a sudden it does and symptoms subside, I won't need to test for covid. But, it makes me feel like typhoid mary if I am out in public and sneeze. I am using drive through pharmacy and curbside grocery pick up, but the other day was on the river trail for a hike, and someone socially distancing walked past me, and I sneezed. They probably wished they could immediately bath their nostrils in bleach! Sigh. 

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1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

I'm also not locking down fully until the numbers shoot up around here. I've already planned this fall to be all online, so I just need to limp into fall without getting sick. I'm going to take advantage of the good weather and the ability to meet outside, masked until the fall classes start out (at which point my kids will have chances for online socialization -- I've picked classes that will allow this to happen.) 

This is what we are doing. We have been going to the beach in the evenings after everyone else has gotten hot or hungry and gone home. We have a huge portion of sand to ourselves, and can watch the sunset. Clear nights we go to a township park that has no light pollution and get out the telescope. I have a couple of favorite farmer markets I will continue to frequent masked until weather does not permit, and then that excursion goes away. We plan to spend February at the Mountain House in Bama with the kids, and will come back just in time to pick up ds for Spring Break.

I have to take ds back to college tomorrow, and we have food packed and will eat out at rest areas, and KN95 in the rest stop when using the bathrooms. He has 10 KN's for himself, and a ton of cloth masks my mom made that have a lining of hepa filter material. All visitors must be masked on campus, no exceptions, security deployed to enforce it. This campus though was very, very good with masking last year so I am hoping I can avoid getting covid while there. My 2nd Moderna was April 23 ish so hopefully still reasonably immune. Ds was vaxed May/June. They have 80%+ vax rate for faculty and staff, 76% for students (anyone in campus housing must have the vax or a medical waiver, no religious exemption which I think is fine because there is no constitutional right to live in campus housing), masks everywhere but outside or inside dorm room. His roommate already volunteered that he had the Moderna series. So maybe we will get lucky! When I get home, hunker down time. 

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16 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

If you are locking down, what is your end game?  Do you have younger kids and just want to get them vaccinated and then will stop locking down?  Waiting for this surge to be over?  Do you think you are going to be avoiding Delta?  

I am asking just because I need to figure out my end game if there is one.  I think I have come to the point where I think we can't avoid Delta.  I don't want it.  But I also don't want to lockdown again.  At least to the extreme we did before.  Although if things get a lot worse I know I will.  Things are bad, but not at where they were last winter yet.

I’ve been intending to go back to near-normal once ds is fully vaccinated and the rest of us can start getting boosters.  
I don’t know about full normal. I’ve always been disgusted by how humans love to spread winter germs, so I’m not sure I was doing 100% normal even before.

The reduction in severity has me in a whole I’ll take what I can get position. Kind of like when I need to be near humans during flu season; I don’t want to get sick, but I’m not all that likely to die, so...

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1 hour ago, mommyoffive said:

How CDC data problems put the U.S. behind on the delta variant (msn.com)

ARGHGHGHGH.  Can I scream in here?  Gosh I am so dang frustrated.  I don't have a science or math background.  I am just a normal person who is trying to keep myself and family safe.  I was leaning on the CDC and WHO to keep me update with all the info that I needed in a situation like this.  I have been so let down with the CDC that I don't trust them anymore at all. 

In addition to the glacial rate at which they release data, I feel like the CDC has invested far too much time and energy into trying to outthink and outmaneuver the bad actors who are spreading misinformation, and it's repeatedly bit them in the ass.

The announcement that vaccinated people didn't need to wear masks came a couple of days after Tucker Carlson went on a huge rant about how requiring vaccinated people to wear masks means the vaccines don't work. The Fox News banner at the bottom of the screen asked "What is the CDC hiding???" and that narrative was all over social media, from antivaxxers and bots, in response to every news article or FB post about vaccines. I think the CDC allowed themselves to be goaded into making a really stupid decision in order to counter that message, when they should have had the courage to stick with the recommendations they knew were correct.

Same thing when Pfizer announced that boosters would be needed — CDC immediately announced that boosters "are not needed at this time" (which of course most media simplified to "CDC says no boosters") because they were afraid it would further depress vaccination rates. Then a month later they're like, yeah, ok, everyone is gonna need a booster. Trying to outguess and outmaneuver the liars and bad actors just forces you to play their game on their terms, and the CDC loses that game every time. At best, they end up looking like they have no idea what they're doing, and at worst they look manipulative and dishonest. 

Edited by Corraleno
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3 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

In addition to the glacial rate at which they release data, I feel like the CDC has invested far too much time and energy into trying to outthink and outmaneuver the bad actors who are spreading misinformation, and it's repeatedly bit them in the ass.

The announcement that vaccinated people didn't need to wear masks came a couple of days after Tucker Carlson went on a huge rant about how requiring vaccinated people to wear masks means the vaccines don't work. The Fox News banner at the bottom of the screen asked "What is the CDC hiding???" and that narrative was all over social media, from antivaxxers and bots, in response to every news article or FB post about vaccines. I think the CDC allowed themselves to be goaded into making a really stupid decision in order to counter that message, when they should have had the courage to stick with the recommendations they knew were correct.

Same thing when Pfizer announced that boosters would be needed — CDC immediately announced that boosters "are not needed at this time" (which of course most media simplified to "CDC says no boosters") because they were afraid it would further depress vaccination rates. Then a month later they're like, yeah, ok, everyone is gonna need a booster. Trying to outguess and outmaneuver the liars and bad actors just forces you to play their game on their terms, and the CDC loses that game every time. At best, they end up looking like they have no idea what they're doing, and at worst they look manipulative and dishonest. 

I feel like the CDC is currently being run by the Marx Brothers!

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3 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

In addition to the glacial rate at which they release data, I feel like the CDC has invested far too much time and energy into trying to outthink and outmaneuver the bad actors who are spreading misinformation, and it's repeatedly bit them in the ass.

The announcement that vaccinated people didn't need to wear masks came a couple of days after Tucker Carlson went on a huge rant about how requiring vaccinated people to wear masks means the vaccines don't work. The Fox News banner at the bottom of the screen asked "What is the CDC hiding???" and that narrative was all over social media, from antivaxxers and bots, in response to every news article or FB post about vaccines. I think the CDC allowed themselves to be goaded into making a really stupid decision in order to counter that message, when they should have had the courage to stick with the recommendations they knew were correct.

Same thing when Pfizer announced that boosters would be needed — CDC immediately announced that boosters "are not needed at this time" (which of course most media simplified to "CDC says no boosters") because they were afraid it would further depress vaccination rates. Then a month later they're like, yeah, ok, everyone is gonna need a booster. Trying to outguess and outmaneuver the liars and bad actors just forces you to play their game on their terms, and the CDC loses that game every time. At best, they end up looking like they have no idea what they're doing, and at worst they look manipulative and dishonest. 

Yes, I agree.  I wish they would see this and change.  

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I work for a healthcare provider that hasn't mandated vaccines yet. I'm vaccinated but many of my co-workers are not vaccinated. We do not work in direct patient care. 

My non-vaccinated co-workers are beginning to speculate that a mandate is coming. I've already heard from several people that they will get the vaccine if it's required. No one has formally threatened to quit but I think several people will quit. These are people who can afford to quit because their husbands have good jobs and they have insurance through their husbands. 

I'm hearing the same thing about other employers with approaching mandates. Most people are complying. 

I don't want to see any healthcare professionals who are not vaccinated. My family is full of healthcare professionals and they all got vaccinated as soon as possible. The doctors that I work with are all vaccinated and they are beyond appalled that not all of their employees are vaccinated. 

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With all the Delta going around, does anyone know if having had Delta will protect against the other Covid strains (including the original one)?  Can vaccinated people and under-12 kids who get Delta then go on to live carefree lives?

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52 minutes ago, SKL said:

I think mandates for healthcare workers will go over better once the vax has regular FDA approval.

I agree with @Lecka that people will find another excuse. They've all lost their minds over this.

I do know of people who are waiting for reasons that aren't particularly sound (waiting until their baby is weaned), but nearly all are against it idealogically.

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1 minute ago, SKL said:

With all the Delta going around, does anyone know if having had Delta will protect against the other Covid strains (including the original one)?  Can vaccinated people and under-12 kids who get Delta then go on to live carefree lives?

Why would it? So far, we know people can contract Covid repeatedly. Why would Delta be special? 

Also, nobody knows what specifics rhe next variant will have and when it comes, so I don't think your questions can be answered. 

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51 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

Ragweed is killing me at the moment. I am surviving on Benadryl, enough to drop a horse! I developed the very rare - yay for me I win 😥 - anaphylactic allergy to Allegra and also Zyrtec - Claritin does nothing for me, and Sudafed makes me sleepy no matter how long I use it for. I never adjust. But after a couple of weeks of Benadryl, I seem to adjust and can function.

My thoughts on this are that since covid doesn't make a person want to itch their eyes and nose off, make their face tingle, and make you sneeze 18-20 times in a row while begging the universe to please let the Benadryl kick in, and then all of a sudden it does and symptoms subside, I won't need to test for covid. But, it makes me feel like typhoid mary if I am out in public and sneeze. I am using drive through pharmacy and curbside grocery pick up, but the other day was on the river trail for a hike, and someone socially distancing walked past me, and I sneezed. They probably wished they could immediately bath their nostrils in bleach! Sigh. 

Yup. Spent a few hours yesterday wondering if I needed to test, backtracking where I've been (walmart for 15 minutes and did self check out, Sams for about the same and with scan and go so no check out, wearing a well fittting KN94 the whole time) and then the zyrtec kicks in and I'm somewhat better. I figure zyrtec won't do much for Covid. 

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2 hours ago, Seasider too said:
2 hours ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

We had six nurses quit the ER in the last 48 hours because they refuse to be vaccinated, which is now  required for health care workers in NY.  Honestly there’s just no winning for anyone.

I am struggling to understand this. In your work with ER staff, have you heard anyone give actual logical reasons for not accepting a vaccination?

DH is weighing his options on quitting too.  He’s adamantly against having a mandate and is a big believer in informed consent in medicine.  Once you are required to get a treatment, you no longer have informed consent.  For him it is not about getting vaxxed or not.

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re establishing objective parameters around how much to dial back / forward, instead of thinking in terms of "endgame"

25 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

If you are locking down, what is your end game?  Do you have younger kids and just want to get them vaccinated and then will stop locking down?  Waiting for this surge to be over?  Do you think you are going to be avoiding Delta?  

I am asking just because I need to figure out my end game if there is one.  I think I have come to the point where I think we can't avoid Delta.  I don't want it.  But I also don't want to lockdown again.  At least to the extreme we did before.  Although if things get a lot worse I know I will.  Things are bad, but not at where they were last winter yet.

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but... I really don't think there's any true "end" anywhere in sight. After Delta, we'll get Epsilon, or Phi or Gamma or whatever.  This is global. So long as one of us is in chains, none of us are free.

So I'm trying to figure out reasonably objective markers, of when to dial towards tighter or looser. At the moment, CT's cases are pretty much back to late Feb 2021 (which unlike most of the country was not our worst point; our worst point was at the very beginning, April 2020).  Still low in absolute terms compared to the worst states, but pretty dang bad for us.  Our 1-week rolling positivity has crept up to just below 4%, again low compared to other states but creeping upward (and at this point it's quite clear to me that states with more, and particularly more surveillance, testing like we have, are not comparable to states that are only testing quite-symptomatic or folks presenting at hospitals).

Our hospitalizations OTOH remain well below prior surges, though definitely still ticking upward (we had hospital overwhelm in April 2020; did not in Dec-Feb 2021):

128560562_ScreenShot2021-08-18at11_58_03AM.png.a90d34ba9f9990329e3cb8827a0e82f4.png

 

and we're the 2nd or 3rd most highly-vaxxed state (we keep trading places with MA)... and pretty much everyone is masking back up in stores although thus far the state mandate hasn't been reinstated for public spaces (it has been, for K-12 schools).

We're vaccinated. All my kids are vaccinated, and anyways after this weekend they'll all be living in other states. Literally all of my local friends and fellow congregants that I do thinks with, are vaccinated.

And so even though throughout most of this ordeal I've been more COVID cautious than most... at this point, I'm still going to outdoor dining (no longer indoor); I'm still doing indoor shopping (now, masked again) rather than relying on deliveries, I'm still meeting up with friends (now, outdoors again).  I'm still seeing my mother in person, indoors.

And after all this time, I'm loathe to give all that up... again.

I know the time will come, that I will. But I haven't quite figured out what is the benchmark that will drive the cutoff switch.

 

And I FEEL different this time around. A year and a half ago, I felt all Victory Garden we're-in-this-together, it sucks but we're resilient and we'll hold each other up.  This time I'm just pissed. So much of this time, was preventable.

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Friend in south florida tried to get a rapid test for her son - they went to FIVE urgent care centers and all either didn't do rapid or didn't have any tests left (it was late afternoon). CVS and Walgreens were days out to schedule. Finally found an at home kit. 

So how many others are in that situation, and NOT showing up in the numbers? And we still are averaging over 20K cases a day!

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Just now, ktgrok said:

Yup. Spent a few hours yesterday wondering if I needed to test, backtracking where I've been (walmart for 15 minutes and did self check out, Sams for about the same and with scan and go so no check out, wearing a well fittting KN94 the whole time) and then the zyrtec kicks in and I'm somewhat better. I figure zyrtec won't do much for Covid. 

Right. My doctor friend told me that if an otc antihistamine gives you significant relief it is allergies not covid.

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1 minute ago, Sdel said:

DH is weighing his options on quitting too.  He’s adamantly against having a mandate and is a big believer in informed consent in medicine.  Once you are required to get a treatment, you no longer have informed consent.  For him it is not about getting vaxxed or not.

Right. He can choose to work where vaccination is a requirement of the job, or not. He can refuse the treatment, but not if he works there. 

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1 minute ago, ktgrok said:

Friend in south florida tried to get a rapid test for her son - they went to FIVE urgent care centers and all either didn't do rapid or didn't have any tests left (it was late afternoon). CVS and Walgreens were days out to schedule. Finally found an at home kit. 

So how many others are in that situation, and NOT showing up in the numbers? And we still are averaging over 20K cases a day!

Liked this post to say good point. 

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30 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

In addition to the glacial rate at which they release data, I feel like the CDC has invested far too much time and energy into trying to outthink and outmaneuver the bad actors who are spreading misinformation, and it's repeatedly bit them in the ass.

The announcement that vaccinated people didn't need to wear masks came a couple of days after Tucker Carlson went on a huge rant about how requiring vaccinated people to wear masks means the vaccines don't work. The Fox News banner at the bottom of the screen asked "What is the CDC hiding???" and that narrative was all over social media, from antivaxxers and bots, in response to every news article or FB post about vaccines. I think the CDC allowed themselves to be goaded into making a really stupid decision in order to counter that message, when they should have had the courage to stick with the recommendations they knew were correct.

Same thing when Pfizer announced that boosters would be needed — CDC immediately announced that boosters "are not needed at this time" (which of course most media simplified to "CDC says no boosters") because they were afraid it would further depress vaccination rates. Then a month later they're like, yeah, ok, everyone is gonna need a booster. Trying to outguess and outmaneuver the liars and bad actors just forces you to play their game on their terms, and the CDC loses that game every time. At best, they end up looking like they have no idea what they're doing, and at worst they look manipulative and dishonest. 

I agree with you 110%. They are being reactive instead of being proactive, and it's pointless. They are trying to reach people who are unreachable and wasting untold energy on those people, instead of just making sure of doing a good, straightforward job with their messaging and saying "The hell with the conpsiracy-mongers." 

They'd be much more effective if they did that. And they'd have people's respect, instead of losing everyone's trust. Like, I'm not anti-science at all, but I do NOT look at the CDC as a source of information. They are neither thoughtful nor particularly honest with their messaging. Why would I listen to them? 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

Not to be a Debbie Downer, but... I really don't think there's any true "end" anywhere in sight. After Delta, we'll get Epsilon, or Phi or Gamma or whatever.  This is global. So long as one of us is in chains, none of us are free.

I actually think things will burn out after Delta or maybe after the next one. For one thing, Delta is incredibly transmissible, so by the time this is through, basically everyone will have antibodies. It's possible we'll get another one that's antibody-evading and we'll be back to the start, but I'm really hoping not... plus, we know more about vaccine development for these viruses than we used to. 

Anyway, I'm actually feeling like we'll know what the "new normal" is sometime in the spring. I don't think it'll be the old normal, but I'm going to guess it'll stop being a rollercoaster sometime soon. 

Edited by Not_a_Number
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5 minutes ago, Sdel said:

DH is weighing his options on quitting too.  He’s adamantly against having a mandate and is a big believer in informed consent in medicine.  Once you are required to get a treatment, you no longer have informed consent.  For him it is not about getting vaxxed or not.

Does he work in healthcare? Direct patient care? If so, doesn't he have mandated TB testing, chicken pox titers, and other mandated vaccinations? Because those things are required by most healthcare places, at least for people doing direct patient care. 

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6 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Right. He can choose to work where vaccination is a requirement of the job, or not. He can refuse the treatment, but not if he works there. 

No, you miss the point….threatening someone’s livelihood is not giving them a  “choice” and it goes against the concepts of freedom and liberty. 

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2 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I actually think things will burn out after Delta or maybe after the next one. For one thing, Delta is incredibly transmissible, so by the time this is through, basically everyone will have antibodies. It's possible we'll get another one that's antibody-evading one and we'll be back to the start, but I'm really hoping not... plus, we know more about vaccine development for these viruses than we used to. 

Anyway, I'm actually feeling like we'll know what the "new normal" is sometime in the spring. I don't think it'll be the old normal, but I'm going to guess it'll stop being a rollercoaster sometime soon. 

Lord know, I hope you're right.

I'll miss the Old Normal, particularly travel. But I certainly can live within a stable New Normal that lets my kids attend in-person school and lets me spend time in person with family and friends. I've had an unusually blessed life; and certainly can comfortably live the rest of my New Normal days more circumscribed than my BeforeTimes days.

But I'm not sure why Delta ubiquity necessarily provides any particular assurance against (say) Gamma virulence.  I hope you're right, but seems to me it's not over til it's actually over.

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11 minutes ago, Faith-manor said:

Right. My doctor friend told me that if an otc antihistamine gives you significant relief it is allergies not covid.

This is good to know.   I thought it would be the case but a little bit of confirmation is good, as someone who has almost year-round allergies with Fall being my worst. 

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2 minutes ago, Sdel said:

No, you miss the point….threatening someone’s livelihood is not giving them a  “choice” and it goes against the concepts of freedom and liberty. 

Ha! Don’t tell that to the military, lol. DH got three mandatory Anthrax shots before they were approved.

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3 minutes ago, kbutton said:

Does he work in healthcare? Direct patient care? If so, doesn't he have mandated TB testing, chicken pox titers, and other mandated vaccinations? Because those things are required by most healthcare places, at least for people doing direct patient care. 

He does, and TB testing is not a “treatment”.  No chicken pox titers mandated.  None of the other vaccines were required for employment or he got when he was military (and knew he didn’t have a choice).  They aren’t even required to get a flu shot for employment.

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3 minutes ago, Sdel said:

He does, and TB testing is not a “treatment”.  No chicken pox titers mandated.  None of the other vaccines were required for employment or he got when he was military (and knew he didn’t have a choice).  They aren’t even required to get a flu shot for employment.

But there are lots of kinds of employment with requirements. Whatever he thinks personally, it's very standard to require things for jobs. 

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2 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

Lord know, I hope you're right.

I'll miss the Old Normal, particularly travel. But I certainly can live within a stable New Normal that lets my kids attend in-person school and lets me spend time in person with family and friends. I've had an unusually blessed life; and certainly can comfortably live the rest of my New Normal days more circumscribed than my BeforeTimes days.

But I'm not sure why Delta ubiquity necessarily provides any particular assurance against (say) Gamma virulence.  I hope you're right, but seems to me it's not over til it's actually over.

Right. Since the frothing-do-nothing-let it-rip-crowd is so large and in charge of so many states, we may as well resign ourselves to more variants, and possibly even more dangerous than delta, until this thing runs out of hosts or maims and kills so many people that the herd is thinned enough that it peters out Black Plague style. I truly believe this is the likely scenario here. And then the question becomes is that what will happen other places or will new variants keep coming due to international travel? I haven't seen my sister, a resident of France, for three years. It really hurts to think I may never see her again unless the medical community comes up with the sure fire kill covid easy plan in my lifetime while I am healthy enough to travel. 

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7 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

Lord know, I hope you're right.

I'll miss the Old Normal, particularly travel. But I certainly can live within a stable New Normal that lets my kids attend in-person school and lets me spend time in person with family and friends. I've had an unusually blessed life; and certainly can comfortably live the rest of my New Normal days more circumscribed than my BeforeTimes days.

But I'm not sure why Delta ubiquity necessarily provides any particular assurance against (say) Gamma virulence.  I hope you're right, but seems to me it's not over til it's actually over.

I would guess that eventually the level of antibodies and the vaccine will make COVID a lot less deadly. So then it'll be like the flu. 

It's POSSIBLE we'll get a variant that totally escapes natural immunity, but then again, we may not. 

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1 minute ago, Faith-manor said:

Right. Since the frothing-do-nothing-let it-rip-crowd is so large and in charge of so many states, we may as well resign ourselves to more variants, and possibly even more dangerous than delta, until this thing runs out of hosts or maims and kills so many people that the herd is thinned enough that it peters out Black Plague style. I truly believe this is the likely scenario here. And then the question becomes is that what will happen other places or will new variants keep coming due to international travel? I haven't seen my sister, a resident of France, for three years. It really hurts to think I may never see her again unless the medical community comes up with the sure fire kill covid easy plan in my lifetime while I am healthy enough to travel. 

Eh, I think that's catastrophizing. I don't think these viruses are particularly selected for being virulent as much as transmissible. It's just our bad luck that Delta is both. 

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Just now, Not_a_Number said:

Eh, I think that's catastrophizing. I don't think these viruses are particularly selected for being virulent as much as transmissible. It's just our bad luck that Delta is both. 

I don't have any reason to believe that future variants will be less virulent/deadly either.

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14 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I actually think things will burn out after Delta or maybe after the next one. For one thing, Delta is incredibly transmissible, so by the time this is through, basically everyone will have antibodies. It's possible we'll get another one that's antibody-evading and we'll be back to the start, but I'm really hoping not... plus, we know more about vaccine development for these viruses than we used to. 

Anyway, I'm actually feeling like we'll know what the "new normal" is sometime in the spring. I don't think it'll be the old normal, but I'm going to guess it'll stop being a rollercoaster sometime soon. 

I've seen a fair number of scientists interviewed now that are leaning this way too.  Some models show 80% of school age kids exposed in the next 2-3 months.  I'm really watching India  with interest after their big burn.  They still do have some pockets with high infection rates.  

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26 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I actually think things will burn out after Delta or maybe after the next one. For one thing, Delta is incredibly transmissible, so by the time this is through, basically everyone will have antibodies. It's possible we'll get another one that's antibody-evading and we'll be back to the start, but I'm really hoping not... plus, we know more about vaccine development for these viruses than we used to. 

Anyway, I'm actually feeling like we'll know what the "new normal" is sometime in the spring. I don't think it'll be the old normal, but I'm going to guess it'll stop being a rollercoaster sometime soon. 

Same. I think once we have people either vaccinated or recovered it will lower the threat level a lot. And really, with breakthrough, people will be even more immune, when you think about it. When I'm no longer worried about ICU, hospital, etc I'll be much more ready for normal(ish).

21 minutes ago, Sdel said:

No, you miss the point….threatening someone’s livelihood is not giving them a  “choice” and it goes against the concepts of freedom and liberty. 

Ok, but when I worked at PetSmart as a cashier, I was required to wear a back support belt thing, and closed toe shoes. I didn't see people protesting this as a violation of their liberty. It was a requirement of doing the job safely. 

13 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

But there are lots of kinds of employment with requirements. Whatever he thinks personally, it's very standard to require things for jobs. 

Exactly. Be that certain protective equipment, vaccinations, drug tests, etc. 

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12 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I would guess that eventually the level of antibodies and the vaccine will make COVID a lot less deadly. So then it'll be like the flu. 

...

I was wondering - with the vast majority of at-high-risk people vaccinated and otherwise protected, can we now say Covid is like the flu, or maybe even less dangerous than the flu, overall?

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1 minute ago, Faith-manor said:

I don't have any reason to believe that future variants will be less virulent/deadly either.

I think some theories say they won't be so different.  But by the time a reasonably healthy immune system sees variations of this virus a number of times, your immune system has good memory of what to do so it doesn't cause severe disease in the vast majority of us.  Like the vaccinated people who are having basically a minor to bad cold now and testing positive.  That will drive transmission down because there will be a smaller percentage vulnerable at any given time.  And seems to align with how some other pandemics like this have burned down to become endemic.  

Anyway, just a theory I've seen spun with this wave a few places.  We'll have to wait and see.  

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Just now, SKL said:

I was wondering - with the vast majority of at-high-risk people vaccinated and otherwise protected, can we now say Covid is like the flu, or maybe even less dangerous than the flu, overall?

To those vaccinated, likely. But with so many NOT vaccinated, no. Cause I don't remember my local EMS saying they were overhwelmed by flu in previous years, nor flu wards set up in parking lots and tents. 

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45 minutes ago, Sdel said:

DH is weighing his options on quitting too.  He’s adamantly against having a mandate and is a big believer in informed consent in medicine.  Once you are required to get a treatment, you no longer have informed consent.  For him it is not about getting vaxxed or not.

Did he get his (mandated here for HCWs) hepatitis B vaccine?  His flu vaccine?  (The HCWs at my dh's clinic are all assigned days to get it).  His MMR if it wasn't current?  Varicella vaccine if you don't show immunity?  Tdap?  Meningoccal vaccine?  (not sure if this one is actually required like the others but it is strongly recommended).  Required vaccines (which are very common for HCW) are MANDATED.  They do have informed consent because they are informed about possible side effects and no one is pinning them down to get it.  They can refuse and work in another field. 

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15 minutes ago, SKL said:

I was wondering - with the vast majority of at-high-risk people vaccinated and otherwise protected, can we now say Covid is like the flu, or maybe even less dangerous than the flu, overall?

You can’t be serious.

SMH.

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My endgame is to do with better understanding/ treatment of Long Covid, as well as an NHS that can offer a more normal service. Until that point I'll be cautious. Still working out how cautious. I'm considering my first haircut in 18 months, now that I have a better mask. All indoor public contact in Scotland is still masked.

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46 minutes ago, Sdel said:

No, you miss the point….threatening someone’s livelihood is not giving them a  “choice” and it goes against the concepts of freedom and liberty. 

I see the logic here but don't all employers threaten our livelihoods? If we don't get to work on time, you could be terminated. Isn't that a threat to someone's livelihood? If I'm supposed to go to work at 8 AM, do I have a choice about it? 

Does his employer have a dress code? Isn't that against freedom and liberty? 

(Of course I understand that a vaccine is different than clothing.)

 

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