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https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-covid-19-test-positivity-rates-july-14.html
 

Oklahoma’s positivity rate now is 52%.  Wow, it is high.

A lot of places that used to have free testing just aren’t doing testing anymore.  Our testing  numbers are low.  Maybe not very many mild cases are being detected.  
 

Not a very good statistic 😞

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1 minute ago, Lecka said:

https://www.beckershospitalreview.com/public-health/states-ranked-by-covid-19-test-positivity-rates-july-14.html
Oklahoma’s positivity rate now is 52%.  Wow, it is high.

A lot of places that used to have free testing just aren’t doing testing anymore.  Our testing  numbers are low.  Maybe not very many mild cases are being detected.  
Not a very good statistic 😞

I do not think the positivity rates are meaningful anymore since at home testing has become easy and prevalent. Our hospital reports a 49% positivity rate for tests performed at their hospital system. But low symptom folks who suspect covid and want a test to make sure aren't going to show up at the hospital run places - they'll take an OTC test and if that's negative don't report. (And conversely, there are people who are likely positive and don't test at all.)

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9 minutes ago, regentrude said:

I do not think the positivity rates are meaningful anymore since at home testing has become easy and prevalent. Our hospital reports a 49% positivity rate for tests performed at their hospital system. But low symptom folks who suspect covid and want a test to make sure aren't going to show up at the hospital run places - they'll take an OTC test and if that's negative don't report. (And conversely, there are people who are likely positive and don't test at all.)

I’m still graphing case numbers, positivity rate, and deaths for Minnesota.  Positivity rate tracks case numbers and deaths track both of them on a two week delay.  Right now both case number and positivity rates are predictive of deaths, but this is in a state where numbers aren’t out of control (positivity just under 5%) and where free drive through testing is easily available.  OTC might be easy, but drive-through is free.

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3 minutes ago, Terabith said:

I can't read this...can you give a summary of what deadly condition is poised to return?

Pediatricians in U.S. Covid-19 hotspots are anticipating a delta-fueled swell of children with a rare, serious and sometimes deadly virus-linked condition as the fall resumption of school looms.

The condition, called multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, occurs in a small number of kids who’ve been exposed to the coronavirus. Children can develop the illness even if they haven’t had Covid symptoms, and week-long intensive care unit stays are not uncommon.

Just discovered last year, MIS-C can wreak havoc on children’s hearts as well as their digestive, nervous and respiratory systems. With delta more than quadrupling pediatric Covid cases in the week ending Aug. 5 compared with a month earlier, doctors see an avalanche of the inflammatory disorder on the way.

“When we enter this phase now where potentially millions of children are going to be infected with Covid, by default we are going to have very high numbers of MIS-C,” said Allison Eckard, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at Medical University of South Carolina Children’s Health. “The percentage of children who are critically ill when they get admitted is unbelievable.

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8 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Pediatricians in U.S. Covid-19 hotspots are anticipating a delta-fueled swell of children with a rare, serious and sometimes deadly virus-linked condition as the fall resumption of school looms.

The condition, called multisystem inflammatory syndrome in children, occurs in a small number of kids who’ve been exposed to the coronavirus. Children can develop the illness even if they haven’t had Covid symptoms, and week-long intensive care unit stays are not uncommon.

Just discovered last year, MIS-C can wreak havoc on children’s hearts as well as their digestive, nervous and respiratory systems. With delta more than quadrupling pediatric Covid cases in the week ending Aug. 5 compared with a month earlier, doctors see an avalanche of the inflammatory disorder on the way.

“When we enter this phase now where potentially millions of children are going to be infected with Covid, by default we are going to have very high numbers of MIS-C,” said Allison Eckard, a pediatric infectious disease specialist at Medical University of South Carolina Children’s Health. “The percentage of children who are critically ill when they get admitted is unbelievable.

😢 It is very clear to me that this country decided for the sake of status quo and political posturing to throw children under the bus.

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41 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Thanks for sharing this.  I just put a link to the same story on my fb feed.  I even linked from Fox where the original interview aired so that maybe some of  myacquaintances will actually read/watch the interview. 

I just got back from church where my 11yodd announced to a group of women I was talking to that she couldn't wait for her birthday in early September so she could get the vaccine.  One lady, in particular, saw fit to cluck her tongue and shake her head and inform me (in front of my daughter) that her son wasn't getting his kids vaccinated.  I told her I wished her grandkids well but that my kids that live at home were all vaccinated except this daughter and that I was happy that she only had a few weeks until I could relax a bit about her chances with Covid.  She was obviously not happy with our decision and said that "Only old people needed the vaccine".  I had to walk away because she would not let it go.  

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1 hour ago, mommyoffive said:

Just one observation I happened to make today.  Missouri may be looking "peaky"?  Missouri was an early delta/low vax state right?  

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/us/missouri-covid-cases.html

It'll be interesting to see how this plays out in different areas.  Our numbers are upward trending but not nuts.  Deaths are at 3% of peak.  

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19 hours ago, Danae said:

I’m still graphing case numbers, positivity rate, and deaths for Minnesota.  Positivity rate tracks case numbers and deaths track both of them on a two week delay.  Right now both case number and positivity rates are predictive of deaths, but this is in a state where numbers aren’t out of control (positivity just under 5%) and where free drive through testing is easily available.  OTC might be easy, but drive-through is free.

Oooh, I’ve been wondering: which one is currently more predictive? 

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50 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Oooh, I’ve been wondering: which one is currently more predictive? 

The lines are basically identical.    Case numbers/100 = positivity * 2 = deaths 14 days later.  

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Just now, Not_a_Number said:

Interesting. For a while, cases were more predictive, right?

Looking back at the whole thing it looks like cases and positivity run in harness when we’re not spiking. In the initial spike deaths followed positivity, but that was before we had sufficient testing.  In the winter spike positivity leveled off early and deaths followed cases.  In the spring mini-spike right before all numbers plummeted cases went higher and deaths stayed more in line with positivity.  Now they’re all three together, but we just hit 5% positivity and 1000 daily cases which is only a spike now because we were down below 1% and 100 cases at the beginning of summer. 

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With the disclaimer that I've been tracking this on the crappy laptop in open office sheets rather than the spiffy computer downstairs with high-power stats and graphics software.  Here's what it looks like.

 

Covid Aug 15.JPG

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6 minutes ago, Danae said:

With the disclaimer that I've been tracking this on the crappy laptop in open office sheets rather than the spiffy computer downstairs with high-power stats and graphics software.  Here's what it looks like.

 

Covid Aug 15.JPG

Of course, the vaccines should seriously throw off the correspondence?

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38 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Interesting. For a while, cases were more predictive, right?

Isn't there something wrong with the reporting on positive cases? Oklahoma reported 51.75% positivity yesterday. That seems suspicious to me. I can't find the tweets now but I saw some discussion of the Oklahoma numbers and people suggested that tests weren't being counted. 

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Just now, Not_a_Number said:

Of course, the vaccines should seriously throw off the correspondence?

One would think. It doesn't really show yet, though.  I guess we'll see in the next few weeks.

I wish there was a way to tell if the numbers are still low because the Delta wave is still ahead for us or if we've blunted it that much.  Because right now we're doing okay.  And if it levels off here I'd feel safe with cautious activities in the fall.  But if it's just a slow rolling wave then we're headed for lockdown.

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Just now, Ordinary Shoes said:

Isn't there something wrong with the reporting on positive cases? Oklahoma reported 51.75% positivity yesterday. That seems suspicious to me. I can't find the tweets now but I saw some discussion of the Oklahoma numbers and people suggested that tests weren't being counted. 

That is awful no matter what is going on.  

@Danae thank you for sharing this!  I've been watching those MN numbers pretty closely.  Feeling good about metro area vax levels, concerned about outstate folks transferred in crowding the hospitals.  Crossing fingers we can keep hospitalization and death rates LOW.  

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4 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Interesting 

dd is sick today (she’s with dh). He said he’s taking the kids for Covid tests tomorrow just in case. I offered to buy and drop off OTC tests at the doorstop bit he said there’s a drive up testing place he’s taking them to. DD’s illness could be random but who knows. She had fever & vomiting. 

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1 minute ago, heartlikealion said:

Interesting 

dd is sick today (she’s with dh). He said he’s taking the kids for Covid tests tomorrow just in case. I offered to buy and drop off OTC tests at the doorstop bit he said there’s a drive up testing place he’s taking them to. DD’s illness could be random but who knows. She had fever & vomiting. 

My best friend back home has a kid also with fever and vomiting. She tried to take him for a test but no one had appointments. She will take him to regular doctor's office tomorrow for testing. She did a Binax but he wasn't cooperative and she's not sure she did very well swabbing him. 

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2 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

My best friend back home has a kid also with fever and vomiting. She tried to take him for a test but no one had appointments. She will take him to regular doctor's office tomorrow for testing. She did a Binax but he wasn't cooperative and she's not sure she did very well swabbing him. 

Ugh. I’ve always been terrified of the tests. I hope they are much better than the videos I saw in the beginning, especially the ones that did both nostrils! 

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2 minutes ago, heartlikealion said:

Ugh. I’ve always been terrified of the tests. I hope they are much better than the videos I saw in the beginning, especially the ones that did both nostrils! 

They do do both nostrils. I just did one on myself and it was pretty unpleasant, although at least it's not jammed halfway to your brain...

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2 minutes ago, heartlikealion said:

Ugh. I’ve always been terrified of the tests. I hope they are much better than the videos I saw in the beginning, especially the ones that did both nostrils! 

I’ve had nine total, four different kinds.  They’re weird and awkward, but nothing to be terrified of.

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5 minutes ago, heartlikealion said:

Ugh. I’ve always been terrified of the tests. I hope they are much better than the videos I saw in the beginning, especially the ones that did both nostrils! 

The rapid ones, incuding the at home one, don't go way up. Just insert the swab 1/2-3/4 inches, or as far as you can comfortably, and rub. it around. Not painful at all. 

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7 minutes ago, heartlikealion said:

Ugh. I’ve always been terrified of the tests. I hope they are much better than the videos I saw in the beginning, especially the ones that did both nostrils! 

The home ones and even our local drive through PCR site are easy, just the nostril types. I did one on my 4 year old and he squirmed a bit because I did the full 15 seconds per nostril, but it wasn’t at all painful and it was fine. I would do it again if necessary. 

4 minutes ago, Danae said:

I’ve had nine total, four different kinds.  They’re weird and awkward, but nothing to be terrified of.

Besides the home one on my little one, my adult kids have had several kinds, including the high swab. They didn’t even find that to be an issue. One didn’t mind one bit and the other said it was briefly uncomfortable, but that’s all. I expect people’s anatomy might differ slightly in that area. 

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24 minutes ago, heartlikealion said:

Interesting 

dd is sick today (she’s with dh). He said he’s taking the kids for Covid tests tomorrow just in case. I offered to buy and drop off OTC tests at the doorstop bit he said there’s a drive up testing place he’s taking them to. DD’s illness could be random but who knows. She had fever & vomiting. 

Anecdotal, but MoneySavingMom recently posted about her baby daughter having MIS-C and that they traced it back to a few days when all but one of them were sick. They had fevers, and the mom threw up.  They were only sick for a few days.  No loss of taste or smell. 

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2 hours ago, cintinative said:

Anecdotal, but MoneySavingMom recently posted about her baby daughter having MIS-C and that they traced it back to a few days when all but one of them were sick. They had fevers, and the mom threw up.  They were only sick for a few days.  No loss of taste or smell. 

Oh dear. Has her baby improved?  It’s been a long time since I’ve visited her site. Hard to hear about babies suffering. 

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4 minutes ago, Spryte said:

Oh dear. Has her baby improved?  It’s been a long time since I’ve visited her site. Hard to hear about babies suffering. 

Yes. There was a mixup in the hospital and the baby was sent home but she recovered. I don’t generally watch her stuff either, but I listened to part of this podcast

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2 minutes ago, cintinative said:

Yes. There was a mixup in the hospital and the baby was sent home but she recovered. I don’t generally watch her stuff either, but I listened to part of this podcast

Thanks.  I'm glad she recovered.  How awful.

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re testing

2 hours ago, heartlikealion said:

Ugh. I’ve always been terrified of the tests. I hope they are much better than the videos I saw in the beginning, especially the ones that did both nostrils! 

 

2 hours ago, Danae said:

I’ve had nine total, four different kinds.  They’re weird and awkward, but nothing to be terrified of.

Same. 

(I've had health care worker-administered high & low swab PCR, rapid antigen which was self-administered low-swab, and an OTC self-administered low-swab... and even the high swab PCR was weird / unnerving but not painful.  My youngest had 2x/weekly PCRs all last semester.  The anticipation is definitely worse than the reality.)

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I've had a zillion tests. Up the nostrils, down the throat. 

Up the nostrils stings bad for me, but for like, two seconds. Horrid but extremely time limited. Then nose is a bit stingy for a few minutes. Then, nothing. I once had to have two, two days in a row, and that wasn't fun but really, the tests are very bearable. 

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6 hours ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

Isn't there something wrong with the reporting on positive cases? Oklahoma reported 51.75% positivity yesterday. That seems suspicious to me. I can't find the tweets now but I saw some discussion of the Oklahoma numbers and people suggested that tests weren't being counted. 

I live in Oklahoma. I don't know what's going on with the numbers, but we suspect there is pressure at the state level to keep testing limited (really dumb). So a side effect of that pressure is that mild cases are being missed and only the obvious/more severe cases are actually getting tested, hence the very high positivity rate.

Here, especially if you are vaxxed, it is "up to your healthcare provider's discretion" as to whether or not you get tested for covid. It is hard to find a place to get tested here locally and up to an hour away (one-way) in the nearest big-ish city.

My DS18 was sick in June, had covid symptoms, and went to his doctor. His doctor didn't think his illness warranted a covid test and unfortunately I was not there to advocate. Dr's reasoning was that because DS was already vaccinated he probably didn't have covid. (!!!!!) He got scripts for an antibiotic, an inhaler, and a steroid, so the same meds as if he had covid. (We still don't know if he had covid but fortunately within a few days he was fine.)

Then about two weeks ago, DH was a direct, prolonged close contact to a co-worker who was unvaxxed, unmasked (against company policy), and tested positive for covid. DH proactively tried to get a covid test. But he was asymptomatic. So our county health department said since he was vaxxed and asymptomatic, they couldn't get him in for a test for 3 days due to lack of appointment availability (and this was allowing a few days for the optimal testing window post-exposure). Two urgent care locations also said he didn't need to be tested since he was vaxxed and not showing symptoms. **They talked to him like he was dumb for even asking to get tested.** So DH gave up on trying to get tested, and stayed masked and isolated. He never did get sick, thankfully.

The people I know of who are able to get tested are not getting their results back for 3 or 4 days.

OK is also only reporting data once per week, instead of daily. And there have been weird data dumps at random times, unexplained data corrections, suspicious data. No one here trusts that everything is being captured. Under-reporting of case numbers and deaths is pretty much certain. Same as some other places, I guess.

It really is insane. But not surprising that Oklahoma is on fire now too. Delta has been building dramatically here locally for a few weeks, spillover from Missouri and Arkansas.

(Our governor has also banned mask mandates and schools are not allowed to go remote. As an aside, we are moving out of this state as soon as we can. Not hard to see why.)

Edited by TarynB
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35 minutes ago, TarynB said:

I live in Oklahoma. I don't know what's going on with the numbers, but we suspect there is pressure at the state level to keep testing limited (really dumb). So a side effect of that pressure is that mild cases are being missed and only the obvious/more severe cases are actually getting tested, hence the very high positivity rate.

Here, especially if you are vaxxed, it is "up to your healthcare provider's discretion" as to whether or not you get tested for covid. It is hard to find a place to get tested here locally and up to an hour away (one-way) in the nearest big-ish city.

My DS18 was sick in June, had covid symptoms, and went to his doctor. His doctor didn't think his illness warranted a covid test and unfortunately I was not there to advocate. Dr's reasoning was that because DS was already vaccinated he probably didn't have covid. (!!!!!) He got scripts for an antibiotic, an inhaler, and a steroid, so the same meds as if he had covid. (We still don't know if he had covid but fortunately within a few days he was fine.)

Then about two weeks ago, DH was a direct, prolonged close contact to a co-worker who was unvaxxed, unmasked (against company policy), and tested positive for covid. DH proactively tried to get a covid test. But he was asymptomatic. So our county health department said since he was vaxxed and asymptomatic, they couldn't get him in for a test for 3 days due to lack of appointment availability (and this was allowing a few days for the optimal testing window post-exposure). Two urgent care locations also said he didn't need to be tested since he was vaxxed and not showing symptoms. **They talked to him like he was dumb for even asking to get tested.** So DH gave up on trying to get tested, and stayed masked and isolated. He never did get sick, thankfully.

The people I know of who are able to get tested are not getting their results back for 3 or 4 days.

OK is also only reporting data once per week, instead of daily. And there have been weird data dumps at random times, unexplained data corrections, suspicious data. No one here trusts that everything is being captured. Under-reporting of case numbers and deaths is pretty much certain. Same as some other places, I guess.

It really is insane. But not surprising that Oklahoma is on fire now too. Delta has been building dramatically here locally for a few weeks, spillover from Missouri and Arkansas.

(Our governor has also banned mask mandates and schools are not allowed to go remote. As an aside, we are moving out of this state as soon as we can. Not hard to see why.)

Thanks. I was born and raised in Oklahoma and you couldn't pay me to move back there. Their reaction to COVID was horrifying. 

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Thanks. I was pretty worried for the kids. Hopefully the kids don’t think they are too bad. My personal pain tolerance/preferences is funny. I would rather have dental work done than get a finger prick lol every time I got a finger prick it hurt like the dickens and I still have red dots years later on my fingertips. Basic, not-so-scary things to other people sometimes bring the worst dread to me. 

Edited by heartlikealion
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16 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

Thanks. I was born and raised in Oklahoma and you couldn't pay me to move back there. Their reaction to COVID was horrifying. 

I'm glad for your sake that you got out when you did. Horrifying is absolutely accurate. 

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I’m officially fried. I think I was doing so much better when everyone understood indoor masking rules (even if they didn’t obey), and then vax status (even if not everyone got it). And also the general acceptance that outdoors = better.

I no longer have any people outside of my family who are prioritizing outdoors or masks. Zero. Not even my fellow peeps with <12s.

I thought I learned my lesson a few weeks ago when I mistakenly assumed I was at a fully vaccinated gathering that was expected to be outdoors, but I didn’t. I found myself indoors again, and the only mask wearer (other than one of my vaxxed kids.).   
And then I saw pics of my other friends with their young kids in an indoor kids play space without masks.

We went through so much to limit regular COVID. If it all ends up being just a delay until one of us brings my kid Delta, it’ll be a horrible blow to my psyche. (And, you know, also not wanting him sick!)

My area is up to about 10% positivity. Hospial stats are riding that orange/red cutoff line. Our 7-day average went from 20 to 36 in 13 days. That’s where our lull between the winter holidays and Easter was. And school hasn’t started yet. Masks required on busses, but optional in school buildings.

Somehow, I’m the crazy one.

ETA: This is PA, so there have always been virtual options, and our district and most surrounding districts already had their own online academies before Covid. While I know that doesn’t work for everyone, I am glad we’re not like some states with absolutely no options other than full homeschooling.

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7 hours ago, TarynB said:

I live in Oklahoma. I don't know what's going on with the numbers, but we suspect there is pressure at the state level to keep testing limited (really dumb). So a side effect of that pressure is that mild cases are being missed and only the obvious/more severe cases are actually getting tested, hence the very high positivity rate.

Here, especially if you are vaxxed, it is "up to your healthcare provider's discretion" as to whether or not you get tested for covid. It is hard to find a place to get tested here locally and up to an hour away (one-way) in the nearest big-ish city.

My DS18 was sick in June, had covid symptoms, and went to his doctor. His doctor didn't think his illness warranted a covid test and unfortunately I was not there to advocate. Dr's reasoning was that because DS was already vaccinated he probably didn't have covid. (!!!!!) He got scripts for an antibiotic, an inhaler, and a steroid, so the same meds as if he had covid. (We still don't know if he had covid but fortunately within a few days he was fine.)

Then about two weeks ago, DH was a direct, prolonged close contact to a co-worker who was unvaxxed, unmasked (against company policy), and tested positive for covid. DH proactively tried to get a covid test. But he was asymptomatic. So our county health department said since he was vaxxed and asymptomatic, they couldn't get him in for a test for 3 days due to lack of appointment availability (and this was allowing a few days for the optimal testing window post-exposure). Two urgent care locations also said he didn't need to be tested since he was vaxxed and not showing symptoms. **They talked to him like he was dumb for even asking to get tested.** So DH gave up on trying to get tested, and stayed masked and isolated. He never did get sick, thankfully.

The people I know of who are able to get tested are not getting their results back for 3 or 4 days.

OK is also only reporting data once per week, instead of daily. And there have been weird data dumps at random times, unexplained data corrections, suspicious data. No one here trusts that everything is being captured. Under-reporting of case numbers and deaths is pretty much certain. Same as some other places, I guess.

It really is insane. But not surprising that Oklahoma is on fire now too. Delta has been building dramatically here locally for a few weeks, spillover from Missouri and Arkansas.

(Our governor has also banned mask mandates and schools are not allowed to go remote. As an aside, we are moving out of this state as soon as we can. Not hard to see why.)

Arkansas is the same way. 3 hour wait times at the only place within an hours drive to get tested, so most people aren’t bothering unless they have to.  Lots of stories of people being refused tests even if they have symptoms. And 0 masking. Seriously I didn’t see 1 person masking the whole time I was there.   The whole state has their head so far in the sand…
Where as in VA I have multiple ways to get tested within 10 minutes of my house, most would take less time than a doctors appointment, none require symptoms. 

Edited by HeartString
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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, heartlikealion said:

Thanks. I was pretty worried for the kids. Hopefully the kids don’t think they are too bad. My personal pain tolerance/preferences is funny. I would rather have dental work done than get a finger prick lol every time I got a finger prick it hurt like the dickens and I still have red dots years later on my fingertips. Basic, not-so-scary things to other people sometimes bring the worst dread to me. 

The swab just kinda tickles in a weird way here. I did one on DD5 last week and she didn’t even cry.

Edited by Not_a_Number
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6 hours ago, heartlikealion said:

Thanks. I was pretty worried for the kids. Hopefully the kids don’t think they are too bad. My personal pain tolerance/preferences is funny. I would rather have dental work done than get a finger prick lol every time I got a finger prick it hurt like the dickens and I still have red dots years later on my fingertips. Basic, not-so-scary things to other people sometimes bring the worst dread to me. 

Definitely get the rapid test, if you need one. Those are low nostril. I told my kids it was no different than if you were using a tissue to get some snot/boogers out of your nose, if that helps? I also let them try it o me with a Q-tip, lol. Only the 4 yr old took me up on that. But you just rub the inside of the nostril for 15 seconds to get some snot/secretions. Not going way up and not at all painful. When I did the one at CVS she said, "as far as is comfortable". 

I have also done the PCR deep dive test, and I won't like, I didn't like it. I have deviated septum so we were impressed she got it all the way up there (medical test to pass a tube through my nose to my stomach failed as they couldn't pass it on either side due to how deviated my septum is). It was NOT comfortable and my eyes burned and nose tingled for a bit. 

But the rapid low nostril is nothing. Seriously. No worse than digging out a booger with a tissue. Kids picking their noses go deeper, lol. 

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Those of you in hard to test areas (which mine is becoming - some cities it is days to get a test at Walgreens/CVS and the drive up free county one has a wait that is several hours long - please order a few Binax tests to keep at home if you can afford to do so. Having them gives me some peace of mind. 

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29 minutes ago, HeartString said:

Arkansas is the same way. 3 hour wait times at the only place within an hours drive to get tested, so most people aren’t bothering unless they have to.  Lots of stories of people being refused tests even if they have symptoms. And 0 masking. Seriously I didn’t see 1 person masking the whole time I was there.   The whole state has their head so far in the sand…
Where as in VA I have multiple ways to get tested within 10 minutes of my house, most would take less time than a doctors appointment, none require symptoms. 

Here, I think the pharmacies and urgent cares have tests. It’s all really easy.

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