Jump to content

Menu

At what point would you lock down again?


Recommended Posts

And this:

 

“I think the central issue is that vaccinated people are probably involved to a substantial extent in the transmission of delta,” Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist, wrote in an email after reviewing the CDC slides. “In some sense, vaccination is now about personal protection — protecting oneself against severe disease. Herd immunity is not relevant as we are seeing plenty of evidence of repeat and breakthrough infections.”

  • Thanks 1
  • Sad 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, whitestavern said:

And this:

 

“I think the central issue is that vaccinated people are probably involved to a substantial extent in the transmission of delta,” Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist, wrote in an email after reviewing the CDC slides. “In some sense, vaccination is now about personal protection — protecting oneself against severe disease. Herd immunity is not relevant as we are seeing plenty of evidence of repeat and breakthrough infections.”

That's certainly what it's looking like 😕 .

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Hey, it's all an immunity booster 😉 . If you're going to get infected, the earlier after being vaccinated the better... 

you know how I feel? When you are scared of heights and you are close to the edge of a cliff and a crazy voice inside your head is screaming “ JUMP!” Almost want to jump just to be done with it all. 

I just looked at numbers. It’s depressing. What’s more depressing is CA will move everything back online and at this point the mental issues from being locked up are significant for my teens. My older DS already needs substantial help. Another year of this… I can’t even think. 

  • Sad 15
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Roadrunner said:

My older DS already needs substantial help. Another year of this… I can’t even think. 

I'm really sorry. Is there anything else you can do? Find a pod where he can socialize? Sign him for outdoor activities? Give him a gap year? 

We really tried to prioritize mental health this year. I have to admit that I knew that we were in for the long haul, so I tried to make it something we could do for a long time. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

you know how I feel? When you are scared of heights and you are close to the edge of a cliff and a crazy voice inside your head is screaming “ JUMP!” Almost want to jump just to be done with it all. 

I just looked at numbers. It’s depressing. What’s more depressing is CA will move everything back online and at this point the mental issues from being locked up are significant for my teens. My older DS already needs substantial help. Another year of this… I can’t even think. 

100% feel like this.  At this point I don't see us getting through this without getting it now.  My kids were just sick and I almost wanted them to have Covid to just get it over with already.  They just had mild colds so if that was what Covid was going to be it seemed easier to do that then to try to avoid it for so much longer.  The dreading it for this long is so exhausting.  

And yep I feel you on the mental issues.  I am more depressed thinking of going through this again, now knowing how hard it is.  

  • Like 2
  • Sad 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I'm really sorry. Is there anything else you can do? Find a pod where he can socialize? Sign him for outdoor activities? Give him a gap year? 

We really tried to prioritize mental health this year. I have to admit that I knew that we were in for the long haul, so I tried to make it something we could do for a long time. 

I have been trying to get him to apply a year early, but he is too terrified to consider it. I have decided he just needs good therapist for now. 

Edited by Roadrunner
  • Like 1
  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Roadrunner said:

I have been trying to get him to apply a year early, but he is too terrified to consider it. I have decided he just need good therapist for now. 

Well, maybe not apply a year early, but just... do something else other than sit at home, alone, on Zoom? That sounds ridiculously unhealthy. I know my sister got pretty depressed doing that, and she only did it for one term of her college experience. 

This year, she moved back to Chicago for college, and even though almost nothing was in person, it was still WAY better. She didn't feel as isolated. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

And yep I feel you on the mental issues.  I am more depressed thinking of going through this again, now knowing how hard it is.  

I don't think we have nearly as long, though. Kid vaccines will be here soon. We'll all get boosters. And then we should all just go out and catch it and toss the eternal dice. They'll be much less loaded to the negative odds, anyway. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can we hope this surge mysteriously vanishes like it did in the UK? Just say yes. You don’t even have to believe in it. 

1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

Well, maybe not apply a year early, but just... do something else other than sit at home, alone, on Zoom? That sounds ridiculously unhealthy. I know my sister got pretty depressed doing that, and she only did it for one term of her college experience. 

This year, she moved back to Chicago for college, and even though almost nothing was in person, it was still WAY better. She didn't feel as isolated. 

We are rural and tied here to work (DH). I just don’t know what to do. The alternative to zoom is nothing sadly. I don’t want him to have an extra year at home by turning high school into 5 years. I think he needs to be around kids his age. Around actual humans. 
 

  • Sad 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I don't think we have nearly as long, though. Kid vaccines will be here soon. We'll all get boosters. And then we should all just go out and catch it and toss the eternal dice. They'll be much less loaded to the negative odds, anyway. 

There is now Delta plus. Not kidding. 

  • Sad 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, whitestavern said:

And this:

 

“I think the central issue is that vaccinated people are probably involved to a substantial extent in the transmission of delta,” Jeffrey Shaman, a Columbia University epidemiologist, wrote in an email after reviewing the CDC slides. “In some sense, vaccination is now about personal protection — protecting oneself against severe disease. Herd immunity is not relevant as we are seeing plenty of evidence of repeat and breakthrough infections.”

I was beginning to suspect this was the case and it's terrifying me as the mother of an 11 YO kid. 

I've written here before the best part of the vaccine is that we can finally do something to protect ourselves that is easy. Before the vaccine, protection required a lot of work, isolation and depending upon other people around you. 

Our plumber came by earlier this week to finish a job. After the plumber left, DH tells me that the plumber had COVID (Delta variant) despite being vaccinated. Apparently he was very sick and is now looking for a pulmonologist because he still has trouble breathing. And now DH just told me that he's not feeling well so he's going to bed. No temperature yet. The plumber wore a mask but I saw DH get a little too close to him. The plumber told DH that the doctor said he could go back to work because he's not contagious but 🤷‍♀️.

A co-worker is also sick despite being vaccinated. She told her supervisor that she was very sick on Monday but got better quickly. Now she's lost her sense of taste and smell but is still insisting that it's probably allergies. 

 

  • Sad 23
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Can we hope this surge mysteriously vanishes like it did in the UK? Just say yes. You don’t even have to believe in it. 

We are rural and tied here to work (DH). I just don’t know what to do. The alternative to zoom is nothing sadly. I don’t want him to have an extra year at home by turning high school into 5 years. I think he needs to be around kids his age. Around actual humans. 

I imagine it'll go away, yes. I really do. It's not mysterious: it's because people build up immunity! We've seen this happen in quite a few states already. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

We've spent this entire pandemic arguing about what people should do to protect other people. It's interesting that now it seems to be that we finally have something that we can do to protect ourselves that may not do anything to protect other people. (Putting aside issues of healthcare resources.) Will that change people's behavior? Of course people must connect the dots and many people seem incapable of doing that. 

 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

There are tons of variants. Most of them don't take over. So we'll see. 

There is the Lambda variant now which has been found in quite a few states already and is not responding to the vaccine.

  • Sad 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Roadrunner said:

Can we hope this surge mysteriously vanishes like it did in the UK? Just say yes. You don’t even have to believe in it. 
 

Said in a small voice - I give the UK a 20 percent chance of not having a resurgence when the weather changes and we all go indoors. Not that many people will die, probably,  because of the vaccination rate. But we will all get ill.

  • Like 2
  • Sad 11
Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

There is the Lambda variant now which has been found in quite a few states already and is not responding to the vaccine.

Where did you find this? I only saw that Corona-Vac has a lowered efficacy against it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

Even if the lambda variant were to surge in the United States, there’s good news: Two of the three federally approved coronavirus vaccines appear to work well against it. A paper posted Monday by Landau and other researchers at NYU found that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines had no problem neutralizing lambda. The variant showed a slight resistance to the two mRNA vaccines, but the shots were still highly effective, according to the study, which has not yet undergone peer review.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/20/lambda-variant-coronavirus/

  • Like 10
Link to comment
Share on other sites

37 minutes ago, AbcdeDooDah said:

Even if the lambda variant were to surge in the United States, there’s good news: Two of the three federally approved coronavirus vaccines appear to work well against it. A paper posted Monday by Landau and other researchers at NYU found that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines had no problem neutralizing lambda. The variant showed a slight resistance to the two mRNA vaccines, but the shots were still highly effective, according to the study, which has not yet undergone peer review.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2021/07/20/lambda-variant-coronavirus/

I am happy to see this (though it is behind a paywall for me). I don’t want to catch the lambda variant either!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

48 minutes ago, KSera said:

I’m still only seeing this discussing the Carona-vac from China. 

The lambda has not yet infiltrated countries that have mRNA vaccines so we don’t really have any real life data about efficacy of mRNA vaccines against it. It has wreaked havoc in Peru and neighboring countries. I read somewhere that the Delta variant has been dominating the Lambda variant in many countries and hence we might never see it on the scale that South America did. So, I am hoping that the mRNA vaccines work against it if we ever have large outbreaks in the US as the claims from various scientists suggest.

 

 

Edited by mathnerd
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Can you even reach herd immunity if there are a significant number of breakthrough and recurrent infections?   I tried to Google recurrent infections but didn’t find much.  My best guess is that natural immunity follows the same trend as vaccinated immunity.

I think the CDC needs to change messaging completely.    One thing they need to do is explain that what they’re calling “severe Covid” is intubation and proning and multiple week ICU stays.  I’ve had three patients in the last week who were sick enough to call for an ambulance and they were vaccinated.  The CDC needs to explain that for many people, what they classify as “mild covid” can still lead to ER visits, dehydration, shortness of breath, and the overall body aches and major fatigue for weeks.  You won’t die, but the CDC needs to tell people they’re still likely to feel awful.  Apparently, the vaccine will keep you from dying, but it’s not going to keep you from being sick and/or transmitting the disease to others.  It will reduce your chances, but it’s more a sure thing.  The CDC needs to explain that.

Then the culture needs to decide what to do.  I don’t think long term masking or social distancing is either a good idea or feasible. Some people may choose to mask, and putting money and research into comfortable masks that fit well and reduce transmission would be great. I personally cannot wear a fit tested N95 for much more than 20 minutes.  Research into lighter weight, comfortable but protective options would be amazing.  Focus should move to treatments.  At this point, everyone is going to get Covid unless you’re willing to stay locked in your house forever.  Pouring money and brains into early treatments, anti-virals, and best practices would go a long way. The end goal of the war has shifted and they need to shift messaging and game plans. 

  • Like 14
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Frances said:

While I agree there might be some small amount of validity to the concern, I do find it hard to understand some people’s supposed grave concern about something that might maybe theoretically possibly happen in the future (eg US imposing China like restrictions and monitoring) all the while embracing leaders who continue to lie about a stolen election, a direct threat to our democracy and freedoms that actually happened and continues to this day.

 

I hear you.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

28 minutes ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

Can you even reach herd immunity if there are a significant number of breakthrough and recurrent infections?   I tried to Google recurrent infections but didn’t find much.  My best guess is that natural immunity follows the same trend as vaccinated immunity.

I think the CDC needs to change messaging completely.    One thing they need to do is explain that what they’re calling “severe Covid” is intubation and proning and multiple week ICU stays.  I’ve had three patients in the last week who were sick enough to call for an ambulance and they were vaccinated.  The CDC needs to explain that for many people, what they classify as “mild covid” can still lead to ER visits, dehydration, shortness of breath, and the overall body aches and major fatigue for weeks.  You won’t die, but the CDC needs to tell people they’re still likely to feel awful.  Apparently, the vaccine will keep you from dying, but it’s not going to keep you from being sick and/or transmitting the disease to others.  It will reduce your chances, but it’s more a sure thing.  The CDC needs to explain that.

Then the culture needs to decide what to do.  I don’t think long term masking or social distancing is either a good idea or feasible. Some people may choose to mask, and putting money and research into comfortable masks that fit well and reduce transmission would be great. I personally cannot wear a fit tested N95 for much more than 20 minutes.  Research into lighter weight, comfortable but protective options would be amazing.  Focus should move to treatments.  At this point, everyone is going to get Covid unless you’re willing to stay locked in your house forever.  Pouring money and brains into early treatments, anti-virals, and best practices would go a long way. The end goal of the war has shifted and they need to shift messaging and game plans. 

I think this is making the unproven assumption that we can’t have effective vaccines again. It’s possible that boosters would again keep cases low.

I’m personally not interested in looking too far into the future. I’m pretty content with social distancing when there’s a surge and being less careful otherwise for now. I have no idea what happens next — I just gotta roll with it.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I think this is making the unproven assumption that we can’t have effective vaccines again. It’s possible that boosters would again keep cases low.

I’m personally not interested in looking too far into the future. I’m pretty content with social distancing when there’s a surge and being less careful otherwise for now. I have no idea what happens next — I just gotta roll with it.

I think we’ll develop a booster.  Absolutely.  I don’t think as many people will get it and that people’s interest in and desire for vaccines won’t be as high though.  
It’s endemic, like the flu.  There will be different strains every year; and I expect that we’ll have different, yearly shots trying to target those strains.  I don’t think long term social distancing is wise for many people; my own son with autism regressed so much during virtual school that it’s just not a good option for us or many others.  

I just think that the government has been looking at this as a short term problem that we’re going to eradicate; and we need to shift now into learning how to live with Covid.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

I think we’ll develop a booster.  Absolutely.  I don’t think as many people will get it and that people’s interest in and desire for vaccines won’t be as high though.  
It’s endemic, like the flu.  There will be different strains every year; and I expect that we’ll have different, yearly shots trying to target those strains.  I don’t think long term social distancing is wise for many people; my own son with autism regressed so much during virtual school that it’s just not a good option for us or many others.  

I just think that the government has been looking at this as a short term problem that we’re going to eradicate; and we need to shift now into learning how to live with Covid.  

To a certain extent, I agree. But how do you "learn to live with Covid" when many are not willing to do any kind of mitigation that stops it? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

I think we’ll develop a booster.  Absolutely.  I don’t think as many people will get it and that people’s interest in and desire for vaccines won’t be as high though.  
It’s endemic, like the flu.  There will be different strains every year; and I expect that we’ll have different, yearly shots trying to target those strains.  I don’t think long term social distancing is wise for many people; my own son with autism regressed so much during virtual school that it’s just not a good option for us or many others.  

I just think that the government has been looking at this as a short term problem that we’re going to eradicate; and we need to shift now into learning how to live with Covid.  

I mean, it depends? I don’t think people will be willing to live with overwhelmed hospitals every winter! If the vaccine uptake and natural immunity suffice to make it much less of a problem, then sure. I don’t know that I ever expected it to be eradicated, anyway.

But I do think it’s possible we’ve almost solved the short term problem and we’ll soon be onto the next phase. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, TexasProud said:

To a certain extent, I agree. But how do you "learn to live with Covid" when many are not willing to do any kind of mitigation that stops it? 

They'll mitigate it by getting it and either dying or (much more likely) winding up with some natural immunity against it. And possibly a long-term condition they don't like! But that's their method and ultimately, it's up to them. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 hours ago, mathnerd said:

There is the Lambda variant now which has been found in quite a few states already and is not responding to the vaccine.

I have to admit this one is freaking me out with no scientific basis just based on the stats from Peru.

  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I have to admit this one is freaking me out with no scientific basis just based on the stats from Peru.

I'm going to respond to that with DH's favorite malapropism: I'll burn that bridge when we get there 😛 . 

  • Like 1
  • Haha 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 hours ago, Roadrunner said:

Can we hope this surge mysteriously vanishes like it did in the UK? Just say yes. You don’t even have to believe in it. 

We are rural and tied here to work (DH). I just don’t know what to do. The alternative to zoom is nothing sadly. I don’t want him to have an extra year at home by turning high school into 5 years. I think he needs to be around kids his age. Around actual humans. 
 

Is there any chance you could get him into tennis or something?  This is probably the activity that feels safest to me because it’s so socially distanced anyway.  There is a shared ball but otherwise it seems really low risk.

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Roadrunner said:

If vaccination isn’t enough to stop the spread of Covid as CDC is now saying, then what’s next? We really have no hope left. At least last year we had vaccines to look forward. Now what? 😓

There was always a decent chance this would wind up needing boosters. 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Roadrunner said:

If vaccination isn’t enough to stop the spread of Covid as CDC is now saying, then what’s next? We really have no hope left. At least last year we had vaccines to look forward. Now what? 😓

Yes, I am beginning to feel really, really hopeless.

  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oooh, I wish people wouldn't feel hopeless!! Look at the UK numbers -- lots of infections, but very few deaths and hospitalizations! And for all we know, a Delta infection after vaccination offers long-term immunity. 

We should try to get everyone who wants to get vaccinated, develop boosters, and let the chips fall where they may. This isn't going to last that much longer, I don't think. It'll become endemic and less scary, that's all. 

  • Like 15
Link to comment
Share on other sites

5 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

If vaccination isn’t enough to stop the spread of Covid as CDC is now saying, then what’s next? We really have no hope left. At least last year we had vaccines to look forward. Now what? 😓

For myself once everyone has the chance to get vaccinated including kids I say we do things basically the normal way, provided they keep working against severe COVID.  We might need six monthly boosters but at this point I’d probably deal with that.  There’s also lots of other vaccines in the pipeline and it’s fully possible that one of them may be more protective.  There’s the possibility that the adenovirus vaccines may be longer lasting than the mRNA vaccines.  And there are also new treatments in the pipeline some of which may prove to be very much more effective than what we have now. The one other issue is the long Covid thing with breakthrough cases.  There was a preprint study yesterday from Israel on healthcare workers with breakthrough cases and there was some long Covid but by the time you look at the percentage of breakthrough cases and the percentage that actually developed long Covid it didn’t seem too worrying.

Edited by Ausmumof3
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

If vaccination isn’t enough to stop the spread of Covid as CDC is now saying, then what’s next? We really have no hope left. At least last year we had vaccines to look forward. Now what? 😓

Reducing the spread eight-fold is significant, though. That will help prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed, and protect a whole lot of people.

if certain regions just insist on acquiring their immunity the old-fashioned way, through infection, on their heads be it, but they'll still end up with some degree of immunity. 

It'll take a while, but we will get through the pandemic stage.

  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

For myself once everyone has the chance to get vaccinated including kids I say we do things basically the normal way, provided they keep working against severe COVID.

Yep, this. And we might keep masking in crowded indoor places during COVID and flu season -- I've really liked not having colds this year! The occasional cold to build up immunity, fine. But constantly going through all the seasonal bugs? No thanks. 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Honestly, many many people do not take care of their health and do not care if they get sick.  Truly, they don’t.  People with severe COPD continue to smoke and not take their inhalers.  People with heart failure go off their diuretics because they don’t like to pee all the time.  People with diabetes don’t check their sugar, don’t take their medications, and eat whatever they want.  Obesity is a huge problem.  So it doesn’t surprise me that people are just not very concerned whether or not they catch Covid.

I will try not to get on my public health rant, but Covid has just exposed issues and cracks that were already there.  Hospitals in many areas are overwhelmed every day, especially emergency rooms.  That happened pre-Covid on a regular basis.  People don’t have insurance, can’t get into primary care doctors, don’t like using urgent care because many urgent cares require a credit card or payment up front. So they go to the ER.  The other night at my hospital it was a 7 hour wait to be seen.  There was almost no Covid, it was other things.  This hospital just added 20 ER beds but they can’t keep up.  ER’s are increasingly holding psychiatric patients for days or even weeks because they can’t find a bed in a psych hospital anywhere. That takes away nurses and beds from other patients. Covid may have shown a light on all of this, but the hospital overwhelm was already there.

There’s a lot that can be done to live in a world where viruses like Covid and Influenza circulate. It wouldn’t take much for a flu variant to cause a pandemic, either.  Invest in hospital infrastructure and medical personnel to reduce the overwhelm of Covid surges or even a bad flu season.  Better public health to combat the chronic diseases like diabetes and COPD that predispose people to severe illness.  Doctors that make house calls. Better insurance reimbursement across the board.   Redesign movie theaters and restaurants going forward to have more space between people.  Invest in research to make better masks that people don’t find so cumbersome.  Move away from open floor plan offices and even houses so people can stay to themselves.  Encourage a cultural mentality of staying home when feeling ill, even if that means more paid sick leave for all workers and a cultural shift away from the ethos of “working through anything.”   Erase food deserts, subsidize healthy choices to make healthy food as cheap or cheaper than processed.  This really isn’t about just Covid, though it’s the big thing right now.  There is always going to be another virus or variant lurking around the corner; but maybe people and politicians can start to strategize ways to mitigate it.

  • Like 16
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

29 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

This isn't going to last that much longer, I don't think. It'll become endemic and less scary, that's all. 

Many of us thought that a year ago. Being back at the same infection rates and at the exact same debates about masking is downright depressing. 

  • Like 7
  • Sad 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

I don't think we have nearly as long, though. Kid vaccines will be here soon. We'll all get boosters. And then we should all just go out and catch it and toss the eternal dice. They'll be much less loaded to the negative odds, anyway. 

That is what I have been hoping for.  I need 3 of my kids to get the 5-11 vaccine, and I hope they get covid after that.  I am not hoping they get covid, but I am hoping we can avoid it until they get their vaccine as to hopefully keep severe problems away.  

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

×
×
  • Create New...