At what point would you lock down again?

[ktgrok]

My county is at 364 cases per 100K. 15.6% positivity. 

I was out for about 45 minutes today - total of 3 stores. I saw 2 people wearing masks, total. 

We are in so much trouble. 

[rebcoola]

Us to

Positivity 18%, 3 new deaths, 44 - hospitalized. Case rate at 280. Expecting a bump like after holidays due to the boat races.

[mommyoffive]

3 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Same. And I thought we might get kid vaccines before then. The optimist in me was totally hoping that we could transition from "low cases" to "endemic but vaccinated" without more sacrifices. 

Yep I thought that too.  I think that was kind of what was being predicted.  Low rates because of summer the vaccine rollout.  Thought we would get the kid vaccine in Sept.  I think that plus all the scariness that Delta is  really got to me.  I feel like it got me so sad because I couldn't even imagine we would be in this place with a vaccine that works so well.  Like we had hope through all the dark times to get to this place and this would be over.  And then it isn't.  And either you have to go back to shutting down or be pretty ok with getting covid because it is so much easier to get now.   I think I thought once I got my vaccine everything was going to be ok. 

[Laura Corin]

19 hours ago, ktgrok said:

My county is at 364 cases per 100K. 15.6% positivity. 

I was out for about 45 minutes today - total of 3 stores. I saw 2 people wearing masks, total. 

We are in so much trouble. 

I'm sorry. So interesting the impact- probably - of higher vax and higher testing rates. Our 7-day positive per 100,000 is 215 but our seven day positivity is 7.6 percent. Masks and 1 metre distancing are compulsory in shops etc.

[Harriet Vane]

20 hours ago, ktgrok said:

My county is at 364 cases per 100K. 15.6% positivity. 

I was out for about 45 minutes today - total of 3 stores. I saw 2 people wearing masks, total. 

We are in so much trouble. 

 

Nobody in my area is wearing a mask anymore. Except me. For the handful of things I do outside of the house, I am pretty much the only person wearing a mask.

An acquaintance told me today they caught a "bit of a cold." We spoke on the phone and I could *hear* the nasal congestion and light cough. This person spent the whole day sorting stuff with some relatives and is planning to spend the evening with elderly parents. Family has not restricted movements in any way. I said, "You know this could really, actually be covid." This person was skeptical ( I could practically hear the eyes rolling when I expressed my concern), and this person thought likely not because of the vaccine, said alright, alright they'll wear a mask. 

So yeah, we are in so much trouble. I don't see a way out of this wretched pandemic with this level of cognitive dissonance. 😥

[ktgrok]

7 minutes ago, Harriet Vane said:

Nobody in my area is wearing a mask anymore. Except me. For the handful of things I do outside of the house, I am pretty much the only person wearing a mask.

An acquaintance told me today they caught a "bit of a cold." We spoke on the phone and I could *hear* the nasal congestion and light cough. This person spent the whole day sorting stuff with some relatives and is planning to spend the evening with elderly parents. Family has not restricted movements in any way. I said, "You know this could really, actually be covid." This person was skeptical ( I could practically hear the eyes rolling when I expressed my concern), and this person thought likely not because of the vaccine, said alright, alright they'll wear a mask. 

So yeah, we are in so much trouble. I don't see a way out of this wretched pandemic with this level of cognitive dissonance. 😥

My neighbor that had Covid was out and about, symptomatic for days, perhaps a week, before getting tested. 

[Not_a_Number]

Our cases are continuing to exponentiate merrily 😕 . (I have it set for Manhattan.)

Edited July 24, 2021 by Not_a_Number

[Not_a_Number]

DD9's birthday party is tomorrow. After that, I'm going to have to think about what to do. I wasn't going to cancel her party with these case numbers. But I'm going to have to think about what to do next. 

Edited July 24, 2021 by Not_a_Number

[ktgrok]

4 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Our cases are continuing to exponentiate merrily 😕 . (I have it set for Manhattan.)

But it makes for pretty graphs, lol. 

Sigh...we have pretty graphs too. Just on a different scale. 

[ktgrok]

Our cases are almost where they were last July. Which is FREAKING RIDICULOUS given we have effective vaccines!!!!!!!

 

GRRRRRR

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, ktgrok said:

But it makes for pretty graphs, lol. 

Sigh...we have pretty graphs too. Just on a different scale. 

Yes, the mathematician in me is thrilled 😛 . 

Graphs are currently DD9's favorite thing in the (mathematical) universe, lol. It's the one of the things she doesn't fight me about doing on her math. This isn't relevant to what I'm saying or anything, lol... it just reminded me. 

[SoCal_Bear]

4 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

DD9's birthday party is tomorrow. After that, I'm going to have to think about what to do. I wasn't going to cancel her party with these case numbers. But I'm going to have to think about what to do next. 

We are over 1200 cases per day out here in my city. Back to where we were in early February.

 

[Carrie12345]

3 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Our cases are almost where they were last July. Which is FREAKING RIDICULOUS given we have effective vaccines!!!!!!!

 

GRRRRRR

Well, crap. My county is about double last July. I never looked at it that way.

[Carrie12345]

Our 7 day average matches 10/31/2020.

Today’s depression sponsored by @ktgrok. I kid. Mostly. 😉 

Edited July 24, 2021 by Carrie12345

[regentrude]

17 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Our cases are almost where they were last July. Which is FREAKING RIDICULOUS given we have effective vaccines!!!!!!!

Ours are right back at December's values.
It's freaking depressing. 

Edited July 24, 2021 by regentrude

[ktgrok]

I probablyshould have also said that other than Feb this year, July last year was one of our highest spikes. So...yeah, even more depressing. This is Florida's graph section on the NW Times. 

 

[Carrie12345]

22 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

I probablyshould have also said that other than Feb this year, July last year was one of our highest spikes. So...yeah, even more depressing. This is Florida's graph section on the NW Times. 

 

I did forget to think about your particular location and climate. Oops!  But we really need to go back to “flatten the curve” up here, because it’s looking familiar (and ominous, given it’s the “wrong” season for us to be seeing this.)

[lewelma]

How protected are you from Delta if you are vaccinated? 

Is Delta worse for children than previous strains?

[Not_a_Number]

26 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

Forgive me if I've overlooked it (this board moves fast!) but was there a long COVID thread? What data is out there about long COVID? I just read something on Twitter about neurological complications. 

I don't see any way around sending DD to in person school in a few weeks. The scare after she got home from camp made me realize that this is going to be our life until she's fully vaccinated. 

The data on long COVID in kids is awful. Not, like, it says bad stuff, it's just noisy and unreliable and you can't tell much. The estimates of rates range from 2% to 40%. 

My personal money is on something under 5%, but that's still really high, in my opinion. 

[Not_a_Number]

47 minutes ago, regentrude said:

Ours are right back at December's values.
It's freaking depressing. 

We're not there yet, but I have to say these stories are making me figure we'll get there 😕 . 

[lewelma]

33 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

I probablyshould have also said that other than Feb this year, July last year was one of our highest spikes. So...yeah, even more depressing. This is Florida's graph section on the NW Times. 

 

If deaths are low still even though the cases are rising, does this indicate that vaccinated people are getting a  mild case?

[mathnerd]

Just now, lewelma said:

How protected are you from Delta if you are vaccinated? 

The protection against delta has dropped (I guess as more people get vaccinated, they could get data from a larger sample):

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/07/23/pfizer-shot-just-39-effective-against-delta-infection-but-largely-prevents-severe-illness-israel-study-suggests/?sh=3c268f1584f1

 

[lewelma]

1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

The data on long COVID in kids is awful. Not, like, it says bad stuff, it's just noisy and unreliable and you can't tell much. The estimates of rates range from 2% to 40%. 

My personal money is on something under 5%, but that's still really high, in my opinion. 

My older will be 21. He will be living in the dorms come Sept 1 with no restrictions is my understanding. Students are required to be vaccinated, but I am not clear on the requirements for staff/professors. It seems to me that this is a very low risk situation for getting long covid. Is this reasonable assessment?

[Ausmumof3]

7 minutes ago, lewelma said:

How protected are you from Delta if you are vaccinated? 

Is Delta worse for children than previous strains?

Latest data from Israel was about 91% for severe disease but only 39% for infection and 41% for symptoms.  There may be some issues with that study.  Also their vaccine rollout started earlier so it may be a waning immunity thing.
 

I wish there was an answer to the second question.

 

(edited because I was off by a couple of percent sorry!  Should check myself before hitting post!)

Edited July 24, 2021 by Ausmumof3

[mathnerd]

20 minutes ago, lewelma said:

Is Delta worse for children than previous strains?

Yes. How much more than the previous strains seems hard to quantify:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/delta-variant-spreads-medical-experts-warn-risk-young-children-n1274126

Recently, the American Pediatrics Association recommended that all kids wear masks in school regardless of vaccination status. This goes above and beyond what the CDC recommends and it is in response to Delta becoming the predominant strain in many parts of america.

 

 

Edited July 24, 2021 by mathnerd

[Not_a_Number]

17 minutes ago, lewelma said:

My older will be 21. He will be living in the dorms come Sept 1 with no restrictions is my understanding. Students are required to be vaccinated, but I am not clear on the requirements for staff/professors. It seems to me that this is a very low risk situation for getting long covid. Is this reasonable assessment?

I have no idea. Honestly, I don't. I don't even have a sense for what the rate of long COVID is in vaccinated people and neither does anyone else 😕 . 

[Not_a_Number]

17 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Latest data from Israel was about 91% for severe disease but only 39% for infection and 41% for symptoms.  There may be some issues with that study.  Also their vaccine rollout started earlier so it may be a waning immunity thing.
 

I wish there was an answer to the second question.

 

(edited because I was off by a couple of percent sorry!  Should check myself before hitting post!)

The UK is getting better numbers against infection, though. The Israeli data seems to be confounded by the fact that they vaccinated so long ago, and by the fact that a lot of older people seem to be the one having issues (so potentially issues with less robust immune systems.) 

So, basically, like with a lot of things: we don't know. 

[Not_a_Number]

22 minutes ago, lewelma said:

If deaths are low still even though the cases are rising, does this indicate that vaccinated people are getting a  mild case?

Correct. We do know that vaccination seriously cuts the risk of hospitalization and even more so death. 

[regentrude]

25 minutes ago, lewelma said:

If deaths are low still even though the cases are rising, does this indicate that vaccinated people are getting a  mild case?

That seems to be the case. According to all numbers I have seen, the portion of hospitalized patients who are unvaccinated is much larger than the portion of unvaccinated population. 

[TCB]

3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Latest data from Israel was about 91% for severe disease but only 39% for infection and 41% for symptoms.  There may be some issues with that study.  Also their vaccine rollout started earlier so it may be a waning immunity thing.
 

I wish there was an answer to the second question.

 

(edited because I was off by a couple of percent sorry!  Should check myself before hitting post!)

I watched a video of John Campbell talking about the Israeli study, and he had a breakdown of the % of infections for people who were vaccinated in January, February etc. The % was much worse for January and better for more recent months. The figure they are quoting for symptomatic infection is an average of all months. He thought the better UK figures were because of the increased time between doses, however the timeline for 2 doses in many people in the UK is so much more recent that I don’t see how you can say that for sure, until sufficient time has passed.

Edited July 25, 2021 by TCB

[whitestavern]

4 hours ago, mathnerd said:

Yes. How much more than the previous strains seems hard to quantify:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/delta-variant-spreads-medical-experts-warn-risk-young-children-n1274126

Recently, the American Pediatrics Association recommended that all kids wear masks in school regardless of vaccination status. This goes above and beyond what the CDC recommends and it is in response to Delta becoming the predominant strain in many parts of america.

 

 

Yes?  From the article you posted: 

Still, there is no evidence that children are more susceptible to the delta variant of the virus than others who are unvaccinated or that it causes more severe illness.

[mathnerd]

34 minutes ago, whitestavern said:

Yes?  From the article you posted: 

Still, there is no evidence that children are more susceptible to the delta variant of the virus than others who are unvaccinated or that it causes more severe illness.

Yes. I quoted the part from the Yale School of Medicine professor from that same article:

But increasing cases among children, including severe ones, are expected as the delta variant spreads and with no Covid vaccine authorized for children under the age of 12.

“Last year, for example, you would have to give a child a really high infectious dose to make them sick, but with the virus that's more contagious, even what would be an insignificant exposure could get them sick,” said Dr. Carlos Oliveira, a pediatric infectious diseases doctor and assistant professor of pediatrics at the Yale School of Medicine.

Edited July 25, 2021 by mathnerd

[whitestavern]

8 hours ago, mathnerd said:

Yes. I quoted the part from the Yale School of Medicine professor from that same article:

But increasing cases among children, including severe ones, are expected as the delta variant spreads and with no Covid vaccine authorized for children under the age of 12.

“Last year, for example, you would have to give a child a really high infectious dose to make them sick, but with the virus that's more contagious, even what would be an insignificant exposure could get them sick,” said Dr. Carlos Oliveira, a pediatric infectious diseases doctor and assistant professor of pediatrics at the Yale School of Medicine.

Severe cases “are expected” and insignificant exposure “could” get them sick are hypotheses, not evidence it is indeed worse. 

[MEmama]

There are so many COVID threads going on I’m not sure where to post this, so I’ll just link it here and assume interested parties will find it. 
 

https://www.psypost.org/2021/07/large-study-finds-covid-19-is-linked-to-a-substantial-drop-in-intelligence-61577
 

I don’t know anything about the publication, but thought the study is interesting, if frightening. 

[Junie]

2 hours ago, MEmama said:

There are so many COVID threads going on I’m not sure where to post this, so I’ll just link it here and assume interested parties will find it. 
 

https://www.psypost.org/2021/07/large-study-finds-covid-19-is-linked-to-a-substantial-drop-in-intelligence-61577
 

I don’t know anything about the publication, but thought the study is interesting, if frightening. 

As soon as I read the title I thought, "Brainfog!".  The author mentions it in paragraph 6.

 

[ktgrok]

 

4 hours ago, whitestavern said:

Severe cases “are expected” and insignificant exposure “could” get them sick are hypotheses, not evidence it is indeed worse. 

No, but if a certain percentage of kids with covid have it severely, and due to this being more contagious more kids get it, then we will see more kids with severe cases, even if Delta isn't worse for kids severity wise. Just from increasing how many kids catch it. 

[Corraleno]

14 hours ago, whitestavern said:

Yes?  From the article you posted: 

Still, there is no evidence that children are more susceptible to the delta variant of the virus than others who are unvaccinated or that it causes more severe illness.

Mathnerd's post, to which you replied, was addressing the question of whether Delta is more dangerous to children than previous strains.

The quote you cited in rebuttal only states that Delta is not more dangerous to children than it is to other unvaccinated people who are also infected with Delta. Those are two different things.

There is evidence that Delta is in fact more virulent than previous strains, including the recent Canadian study that found Delta more than doubled the risk of hospitalization and death compared to the original strain. So if the risk for children with Delta is the same as the risk for other unvaccinated people with Delta, then it is is more dangerous for children than previous strains were, which was what Mathnerd said.

 

[SoCal_Bear]

Good overview from Dr. Campbell about the Israeli study about longevity of vaccine broken down by when you got the vax and infection, severe illness, and hospitalations.
 

Edited July 25, 2021 by calbear

[sassenach]

We just had a dear friend die of covid (I assume Delta). He was vaccinated with J&J months ago. I would not rely on that vaccine for any protection. Dx to death in 10 days.

[Not_a_Number]

18 minutes ago, sassenach said:

We just had a dear friend die of covid (I assume Delta). He was vaccinated with J&J months ago. I would not rely on that vaccine for any protection. Dx to death in 10 days.

Oh goodness. I’m so sorry. How old was he, if you don’t mind me asking?

[MEmama]

21 minutes ago, sassenach said:

We just had a dear friend die of covid (I assume Delta). He was vaccinated with J&J months ago. I would not rely on that vaccine for any protection. Dx to death in 10 days.

I am so, so sorry for everyone affected. 😞 

[I talk to the trees]

8 hours ago, MEmama said:

There are so many COVID threads going on I’m not sure where to post this, so I’ll just link it here and assume interested parties will find it. 
 

https://www.psypost.org/2021/07/large-study-finds-covid-19-is-linked-to-a-substantial-drop-in-intelligence-61577
 

I don’t know anything about the publication, but thought the study is interesting, if frightening. 

This is what dd(20) has said frightens her most. She said she could (grudgingly and grumpily) deal with a lingering cough or headache or even loss of smell and taste. But she already deals with occasional autoimmune brain fog issues, and is terrified of not being able to think straight or complete her classwork. She has also expressed concern about the effect something like that might have on her graduate school plans.

 

[I talk to the trees]

35 minutes ago, sassenach said:

We just had a dear friend die of covid (I assume Delta). He was vaccinated with J&J months ago. I would not rely on that vaccine for any protection. Dx to death in 10 days.

I am so sorry!

[Pawz4me]

16 minutes ago, I talk to the trees said:

This is what dd(20) has said frightens her most. She said she could (grudgingly and grumpily) deal with a lingering cough or headache or even loss of smell and taste. But she already deals with occasional autoimmune brain fog issues, and is terrified of not being able to think straight or complete her classwork. She has also expressed concern about the effect something like that might have on her graduate school plans.

 

I think that's what many of us who already have AI diseases are concerned about. Many of the long Covid symptoms sound quite similar to symptoms of several AI diseases, and lots of us who already have one (or more) know we don't want another one.

[mommyoffive]

2 hours ago, sassenach said:

We just had a dear friend die of covid (I assume Delta). He was vaccinated with J&J months ago. I would not rely on that vaccine for any protection. Dx to death in 10 days.

I am so sorry.

[SoCal_Bear]

3 hours ago, Pawz4me said:

I think that's what many of us who already have AI diseases are concerned about. Many of the long Covid symptoms sound quite similar to symptoms of several AI diseases, and lots of us who already have one (or more) know we don't want another one.

Agreed 100%. If people really understood what it is like to live with AI issues...they would not be so flippant about this.

 

[sassenach]

3 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Oh goodness. I’m so sorry. How old was he, if you don’t mind me asking?

Mid-60's, with a lot of life left in him.

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, sassenach said:

Mid-60's, with a lot of life left in him.

How awful 😞 . I’m so sorry the vaccine didn’t protect him.

[KSera]

@sassenachIm so sorry about your friend 😢. That’s terribly sad. 

[busymama7]

2 hours ago, calbear said:

Agreed 100%. If people really understood what it is like to live with AI issues...they would not be so flippant about this.

 

I am still surrounded by people downplaying covid.  Like to my face.  I try to be thankful they just don't understand but it is hard. One friend in particular has been a very close friend for 15 years. I'm trying to not let it ruin our friendship but it is so hard.  I can't figure out after knowing me for so long how she can't see what covid did to me.  Granted I *am* overweight. So she probably just justifies that in her head.  But yeah.  I don't think she really knows how I feel now and what being chronically unwell is like.