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At what point would you lock down again?


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On 7/20/2021 at 4:31 AM, Laura Corin said:

The issue with those numbers is that it was NOT clear from Patrick Valance whether "unvaccinated" meant no vaccine or not fully vaccinated. The numbers would be correct if he meant 40% of infections were in people who had at least one shot, but they would be way off if he meant 40% were in people who were fully vaccinated.

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13 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

The issue with those numbers is that it was NOT clear from Patrick Valance whether "unvaccinated" meant no vaccine or not fully vaccinated. The numbers would be correct if he meant 40% of infections were in people who had at least one shot, but they would be way off if he meant 40% were in people who were fully vaccinated.

In British parlance I think 'unvaccinated' would mean no vaccine at all. Otherwise it would be 'not fully vaccinated'. Would be my guess. 

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Ugh, DH is supposed to do a working lunch in a restaurant tomorrow. He's fully vaccinated, but our kids are not vaccinated - too young. I don't want to make a fuss over this, but I do NOT like it!

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2 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Ugh, DH is supposed to do a working lunch in a restaurant tomorrow. He's fully vaccinated, but our kids are not vaccinated - too young. I don't want to make a fuss over this, but I do NOT like it!

I wouldn't like it either.  Is it too hot for him to eat outside?

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26 minutes ago, Laura Corin said:

In British parlance I think 'unvaccinated' would mean no vaccine at all. Otherwise it would be 'not fully vaccinated'. Would be my guess. 

Valance's "clarification" was just as confused as his original statement. First he said that 60% of hospitalizations were in double vaccinated people, then he corrected it by saying "60% of hospitalisations from covid are not from double vaccinated people, rather 60% of hospitalizations from covid are currently from unvaccinated people," which suggests that he originally meant to say that 40% were double vaccinated.  

Why mention "double vaccination" at all if neither of the percentages being reported are in double-vaccinated people? It's really not useful to lump fully vaccinated people with those who've only had one dose unless they are doing it to disguise lower than ideal levels in double-vaccinated people. Like if the hospitalization rate is actually higher in double-vaccinated older people than in single-vaccinated younger people, then lumping them together would help disguise that.

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18 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

I wouldn't like it either.  Is it too hot for him to eat outside?

Yeah, it's miserably hot and humid and they will be in business clothes. And I don't know that where they are going even has outdoor seating. I may bring it up with him, but ugh. this is the first in person meeting in a year I think...

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1 hour ago, mommyoffive said:

I feel so down and how the heck are we supposed to avoid Covid this time?  Seems like everyone is just going to get it.  At least being vaccinated it will be mild?  So then don't lock down again and just be cautious?  

I'd like more data on how vaccinated people do, I guess, and on kids with long COVID. 

But for me, either I'm trying not to get it or I'm not, you know? I don't think I can deal with being cautious if I'm not looking forward to something. For now, for me, it seems to make sense to wait for vaccines or for it to mutate to something less scary. But I don't know how long I'll feel like that... 

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Well, our vax'd middle school director just tested positive for Covid. She's roommates with the children's ministry coordinator. VBS is supposed to start on Monday. MS and HS are going on retreats 8/1. I let my vax'd son go to church masked on Sunday and youth group on Tuesday. I am glad I kept my 4yo at home with me because I was feeling uneasy about her. I'm no longer comfortable with sending him since they are indoors, and most everyone is not masked. My son says at least half the kids tell him that they are not vax'd. 

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16 minutes ago, calbear said:

Well, our vax'd middle school director just tested positive for Covid. She's roommates with the children's ministry coordinator. VBS is supposed to start on Monday. MS and HS are going on retreats 8/1. I let my vax'd son go to church masked on Sunday and youth group on Tuesday. I am glad I kept my 4yo at home with me because I was feeling uneasy about her. I'm no longer comfortable with sending him since they are indoors, and most everyone is not masked. My son says at least half the kids tell him that they are not vax'd. 

Only 25% of 12-15 year olds are vaxed according to CDC. 

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17 minutes ago, calbear said:

Well, our vax'd middle school director just tested positive for Covid. She's roommates with the children's ministry coordinator. VBS is supposed to start on Monday. MS and HS are going on retreats 8/1. I let my vax'd son go to church masked on Sunday and youth group on Tuesday. I am glad I kept my 4yo at home with me because I was feeling uneasy about her. I'm no longer comfortable with sending him since they are indoors, and most everyone is not masked. My son says at least half the kids tell him that they are not vax'd. 

Mild?

 

I must be the only person left here optimistic. 

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2 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Mild?

 

I must be the only person left here optimistic. 

I was feeling optimistic before things started skyrocketing around here, lol. I honestly was. I'm currently apparently paying for my previous optimism. 

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So far, it's mild. She's young. 20-something.

My 4yo has an underlying heart condition. I am cautious for a reason. I going to ask my son to attend the Asian church on Sundays now. He also goes to their youth group. Still masked and outside. Honestly, it's mostly the Asians still masking in my area.

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5 minutes ago, calbear said:

So far, it's mild. She's young. 20-something.

My 4yo has an underlying heart condition. I am cautious for a reason. I going to ask my son to attend the Asian church on Sundays now. He also goes to their youth group. Still masked and outside. Honestly, it's mostly the Asians still masking in my area.

I've also seen differences by ethnicity here... more Asians masking for sure. 

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5 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I was feeling optimistic before things started skyrocketing around here, lol. I honestly was. I'm currently apparently paying for my previous optimism. 

If my kids weren’t vaccinated, I would be in a different position for sure. 
 

I am looking at UK death spike and not seeing one even though numbers of new cases are huge. 

99.5% dying are unvaccinated in the US

boosters will be available.

I have to look at positives or I will lose it. 

I just really wish we had protection for under 12.

 

 

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Just now, Roadrunner said:

If my kids weren’t vaccinated, I would be in a different position for sure. 
 

I am looking at UK death spike and not seeing one even though numbers of new cases are huge. 

99.5% dying are unvaccinated in the US

boosters will be available.

I have to look at positives or I will lose it. 

I just really wish we had protection for under 12.

Oh, I'd feel a LOT better with vaccinated kids. Not, like, totally awesome, but a LOT better. 

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I was planning to go as a family to my son's golf tournament. He made it to the sectional playoff tournament. Now, I'm going to stay home with the 4yo. Mixing it up with hundreds of people for hours with my 4yo isn't something I want to do. Less concerned about the outdoor as we could space...more concerned about the indoor spaces like restrooms.

 

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1 minute ago, Roadrunner said:

I am looking at UK death spike and not seeing one even though numbers of new cases are huge. 

You're right. The vaccine is obviously making the situation very different, and I'm very grateful to be vaccinated. 

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28 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

I saw an Asian family masking at the river in the woods. They were alone. 

How do you know they were one household?  I have had people comment when I am out with my kids and nieces and masking, I assume because they think they are all my kids.

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44 minutes ago, calbear said:

Honestly, it's mostly the Asians still masking in my area.

Korean and Japanese supermarkets here have majority masked if not everyone.

38 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I've also seen differences by ethnicity here... more Asians masking for sure. 

Asians 12 and up are almost fully vaccinated in my county.

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30 minutes ago, BaseballandHockey said:

How do you know they were one household?  I have had people comment when I am out with my kids and nieces and masking, I assume because they think they are all my kids.

Well, looked like husband and wife with two kids. 

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48 minutes ago, BaseballandHockey said:

I've definitely been places with my BiL's and a couple kids where you'd think we were a nuclear family. 

I am sure you have been, but I am not sure how that is relevant or what you are trying to prove. I agreed with whoever mentioned that Asians are more likely to mask. That is true here as well. In fact I would say they are masked almost universally everywhere even outside. We hike daily. They are masked even on hikes crowded (almost never here) or not. 
White people? Not so much. Older ones in stores are masked. Younger? Very rarely and never outdoors. 
I don’t understand why people take things so personally. 

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3 hours ago, Roadrunner said:

Mild?

 

I must be the only person left here optimistic. 

A few double vaxxed journalists in the UK have had Covid, eg Andrew Marr and Evan Davis. Davis has it right now, is broadcasting from home and seems fine. Marr is a previous stroke survivor, caught Covid at the G7, had symptoms but recovered

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57640550

 

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Maybe a stupid question and maybe already buried in a thread: can you test for antibodies that would show you once had it, if you've been vaccinated after the possible infection?  Or will the test just show up with your vaccination-induced antibodies?

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8 hours ago, Roadrunner said:

Mild?

 

I must be the only person left here optimistic. 

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I just found out a friend of mine from high school (so mid-40s) got Covid after fully vaccinated. She says, and I quote, "I don’t remember ever being this sick & feeling this terrible in my entire life." She just barely stayed out of the hospital. The only plus side is none of her vaccinated family members caught it. 

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/coronavirus/151-dead-563-hospitalized-in-illinois-breakthrough-covid-cases/2556408/?_osource=SocialFlowFB_CHBrand&fbclid=IwAR3VOYIVyQx2a3ZAk-iAvSHOviKg7OkX5zBUriJkzkb_wXNFS7Oc9ZhaKiQ

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My dh’s boss, in his late 40s, has been fully vaxxed since April (Pfizer) and currently has Covid. It’s mild, he hasn’t needed any medical attention, and he hasn’t spread it to anyone in his family, who are also vaxxed. He was on a road trip with his kids when he started feeling sick but still none of them have caught it. He also had just gone back to work in the office, no masks because only vaxxed employees are allowed back, and so far no one has tested positive. 

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8 hours ago, Roadrunner said:

If my kids weren’t vaccinated, I would be in a different position for sure. 
 

I am looking at UK death spike and not seeing one even though numbers of new cases are huge. 

99.5% dying are unvaccinated in the US

boosters will be available.

I have to look at positives or I will lose it. 

I just really wish we had protection for under 12.

 

 

Yeah, those numbers are not so comforting when you still have family members who can't be vaccinated. 

1 hour ago, Harpymom said:

Maybe a stupid question and maybe already buried in a thread: can you test for antibodies that would show you once had it, if you've been vaccinated after the possible infection?  Or will the test just show up with your vaccination-induced antibodies?

yes, they are different tests

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32 minutes ago, historically accurate said:

I hate to be the bearer of bad news, but I just found out a friend of mine from high school (so mid-40s) got Covid after fully vaccinated. She says, and I quote, "I don’t remember ever being this sick & feeling this terrible in my entire life." She just barely stayed out of the hospital. The only plus side is none of her vaccinated family members caught it. 

https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/coronavirus/151-dead-563-hospitalized-in-illinois-breakthrough-covid-cases/2556408/?_osource=SocialFlowFB_CHBrand&fbclid=IwAR3VOYIVyQx2a3ZAk-iAvSHOviKg7OkX5zBUriJkzkb_wXNFS7Oc9ZhaKiQ

Ugh. 

On the other hand, it's almost certainly the case she'd have been much sicker without the vaccine, so I guess it's good she was vaccinated!

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The UK data still seems encouraging to me. Just on a raw comparison the current number of cases is something like 54,000 per day.  I picked a random day from last time the case load was around that - January 10 and then looked at death rates for that time and it was around 700 per day.  Now with the same number of cases it’s in the 70s.  Maybe some of that is due to more testing but it does really seem hopeful that once enough of the older people are vaccinated we won’t see the enormous spike in deaths again. 

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19 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Ugh, DH is supposed to do a working lunch in a restaurant tomorrow. He's fully vaccinated, but our kids are not vaccinated - too young. I don't want to make a fuss over this, but I do NOT like it!

Not eating inside restaurants is one of my hills to die on right now. We have various family in and out all month and while we’ve had to be out and about more as a result, this is one boundary I will not allow to be crossed. 
 

I know your weather makes it hard right now, but I hope he was successful in keeping the group outside. 

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5 minutes ago, MEmama said:

Not eating inside restaurants is one of my hills to die on right now. We have various family in and out all month and while we’ve had to be out and about more as a result, this is one boundary I will not allow to be crossed. 
 

I know your weather makes it hard right now, but I hope he was successful in keeping the group outside. 

After working in a restaurant in  college they always have grossed me out.   But now there is no way I would feel comfy in one right now.  With what is going on I can't imagine how anyone is going in one. 

My dh has another work trip in the future and I am so freaked about it.  

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On 7/19/2021 at 2:16 PM, ktgrok said:

Well, Florida managed to nearly double the weekly number of cases. State positivity is up over 11%. 

More specifically, my count is at 12.8% and the neighboring county (I'm right on the border) where I shop, have doctor's offices, etc is at 14.5% positivity!

UGH!

And still, masks mandates are now illegal per governor. And schools say they are optional. And my church says they are optional, even in elementary Sunday School where no one is vaccinated. 

And yes, hospitalizations are up as well, not quite as fast as cases, thankfully. 

 

On 7/19/2021 at 5:51 PM, ktgrok said:

Well, it does protect - just not 100%. Same as seatbelts, etc. 

But yeah, the more spread, the more people will pay the price, including vaccinated people. 

As usual I'm way behind on a thread I'm interested in. My county is also next to Katie's and is at 12.2% according to Covid Act Now. Earlier this week I saw 16% which did seem high and I haven't been able to find where I saw that. Cases more than doubled since last week. One hospital system says 95% of hospitalized covid patients are unvaccinated. Another nearby hospital but not part of the same group says 98% of their covid patients aren't fully vaxxed.

Dss (Emma's dad) is a  firefighter/paramedic with the county and says the past week or so they're transporting as many people to hospitals on a daily basis as they were during the worst of the pandemic.

Our state representative was a covid skeptic until he was hospitalized last year and almost died. He now has long covid. He's young - in his 40s - and I believe fairly healthy. Now he's trying to convince his followers to take covid seriously, get the vaccine, and wear masks especially if you're not vaccinated. However, he's still against mask mandates, closing anything down, and requiring masks in school for unvaccinated kids. His official facebook page is still full of people questioning both covid and the vaccine. Like a lot of people of his ilk, he's trying to backtrack and not getting enough of his people to backtrack with him.

 

Edited by Lady Florida.
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I didn't want this to get lost in my reply to Katie's posts.

A friend of mine has a not so mild breakthrough case. She's been fully vaccinated since April (Pfizer) and not only tested positive but has some pretty awful flu like symptoms. I know her from our homeschool days but haven't seen her in person since our sons were teens (they're in their 20s now). Ds however, still hangs out with her son and often stops by his house (he lives at home too) after work to visit and play video games. No one else in the house tested positive but one of her other sons tested positive for antibodies. She has no doubt, considering how bad her symptoms are, that if she wasn't vaccinated she'd be in the hospital right now. 

Edited by Lady Florida.
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On 7/19/2021 at 2:40 PM, Not_a_Number said:

Huh. Maybe I'm less weird than I thought... 

I don't even mind WATCHING needles. I really don't have needle issues. But finger pricks, ugh. 

When I get a shot or get blood drawn I look away. Everyone knows it hurts less when you don't see it. 😂

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4 hours ago, MEmama said:

Not eating inside restaurants is one of my hills to die on right now. We have various family in and out all month and while we’ve had to be out and about more as a result, this is one boundary I will not allow to be crossed. 
 

I know your weather makes it hard right now, but I hope he was successful in keeping the group outside. 

Yeah....I'm not hopeful about sitting outside. There are heat advisories in the area - the "feels like" temperature is I think 105 in some parts of our area right now - it's SO humid and hot. He did tell me that everyone at his table has been vaccinated, he's wearing an N95 for the work part first, and will wear it when waiter is at table..etc. And is going to get a rapid test in a few days...I'm thinking 4 days post exposure is when? 

But I'm not happy. Didn't help when he said he was doing these things to make me happy. I stopped him and said, "you mean because of concern over the virus and your unvaccinated children, right?" Cause dude, this is not about me. 

And my 22 y old is on a plane today, also not thrilling me, but at least will be masked the whole time. 

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So, the outdoor patio was closed, likely due to the heat advisories here. But he said the place was mostly empty, they went early and there was no one seated at tables near them, his table everyone was vaccinated, and he kept mask on when not eating. 

I still think it was a dumb thing to do. 

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1 minute ago, ktgrok said:

So, the outdoor patio was closed, likely due to the heat advisories here. But he said the place was mostly empty, they went early and there was no one seated at tables near them, his table everyone was vaccinated, and he kept mask on when not eating. 

I still think it was a dumb thing to do. 

I'm with you on the "dumb thing to do." 

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46 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I'm with you on the "dumb thing to do." 

Yup. I mean, I get it. They had to do a security walk through at one of the facilities, and then they were hungry. They needed to meet to discuss what happened on the walk through, and they all needed to eat. So...restaurant. I guess other option would have been take out taken back to the office? But where they were was a distance from the office, and at least one of the members had driven from their other office several hours away and going to the main office was in the wrong direction for him. I don't know..ugh. 

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54 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

So, the outdoor patio was closed, likely due to the heat advisories here. But he said the place was mostly empty, they went early and there was no one seated at tables near them, his table everyone was vaccinated, and he kept mask on when not eating. 

I still think it was a dumb thing to do. 

I think it was fine.

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I started wearing masks again today. All of a sudden I noticed that about 1/4 to 1/3 of people were wearing masks at the supermarket and that flipped the switch for me. Last week I didn't see anyone wearing a mask so I guess a bunch of my fellow urban Texans freaked out about the Delta and the Lambda (say it isn't so!!!!) variant at the same time. At the rate we're going we're going to be at Omega by Christmas.

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I've not been following covid stats too closely, so I have a question for you guys. If you are vaccinated, is the risk for severe illness with Delta about the same as the flu? And do we know yet, the risk to children who are not vaccinated?  

I'm curious because it sounds like the UK is going with the "we are mostly vaccinated, so we are going to treat it like the flu from a public health perspective."  

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@mommyoffive Sympathies about the upcoming work trip.  My DH still has a looming work trip to Munich, about which we are worried.  It would be one thing with everyone vaccinated, it’s another with unvaccinated children.  
 

And keeping up with Covid stats in Germany is more difficult for me, I’m not sure which sources are best.  
 

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