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What do you think is going to happen with the housing market?


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I always think it will vary by area too.

That said, a friend recently listed a starter home in an ok but not amazing neighborhood and had 20 offers within 2 days.   Things are really moving here, definitely a seller's market.  We keep getting post cards asking if we're ready to sell and that our modest, antique, needs work but urbanish house is worth obscene amounts of money.  

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Hard to say. I think we have one more selling season of ridiculous prices rising. Then that will peter out as more and more people decide to list their houses.  It'll still be a seller's market for a while but prices will become a bit more realistic.  But eventually, people are going to realize they bought way too much house because of low interest rates and will start defaulting on those loans because they can't afford utilities, maintenance, increasing property taxes, etc. By the time they realize they can't afford the house the market would have decreased enough to put them underwater. 

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I don’t think more land is being created so for the next 10 years I think housing will still be needed. If people don’t start having babies though, in 20 years there’s going to be a lot less need for the current houses. 

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We really want to get my parents house listed by June.  We have a lot of work to do but it'll be worth it because if the market continues the way it is they sell it in a day for $60,000 more than they would have 2 years ago when we were going to originally list it before a few siblings moved in to get their house sold.

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I don’t know what’s coming, but if you’re in a position to downsize or move to a lower COL area, this sure seems like a good time.

For us, in our HCOL, we’re better off sitting tight, though it’s fun watching the prices rise.

Really happy for those of you need to sell right now in hot markets!

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We are actively looking to move right now. In my area, I think things will plateau a bit once Spring hits and more houses are listed. Right now, it’s great for selling, but buying is hard. 

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We bought the least expensive house in a great location. It’s nice to see prices rising but with our interest rate and basis I have have no intention of selling our home or our rental. If anything, I will upgrade the place we have now and refinance the rental. It’s possible we may buy a 2BR condo near DDs preferred college in the next year tho. It’s not a super competitive school and she’d be able to live there with a roomie for 4 years (cheaper than room and board in the dorms). I think we have about 18 more months of hot market. It probably won’t cool until COVID is under control.

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1 hour ago, Murphy101 said:

I don’t think more land is being created so for the next 10 years I think housing will still be needed.

Here plenty of land is being used to build rental apartments. 
 

Here inventory of homes for sale are still low so we are waiting to see what happens when the mortgage forbearance ends.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2021/02/16/fact-sheet-biden-administration-announces-extension-of-covid-19-forbearance-and-foreclosure-protections-for-homeowners/

The actions announced today will:

  • Extend the foreclosure moratorium for homeowners through June 30, 2021;
  • Extend the mortgage payment forbearance enrollment window until June 30, 2021 for borrowers who wish to request forbearance;
  • Provide up to six months of additional mortgage payment forbearance, in three-month increments, for borrowers who entered forbearance on or before June 30, 2020”
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It is really hard for me to know what 25-year-old me would make of current times.  I think 25-year-old me would still want to have kids.  42-year-old me can wonder what 25-year-old me was thinking.  Things seem so different to me when I look at them for my kids instead of -- just the normal-to-me things going on around me.  

I knew 25-year-olds, when I was 25, who were thinking about things in a really different way -- but I don't think I would have been thinking that way in a 25-year-old version of myself.  

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There are lots more buyers than houses available here, although there has been an uptick in listings in the past couple of weeks.  Houses on the lower end have gone way up in price, while mid and higher end houses' asking prices are about $25,000-50,000 less than they would have been just a few months ago.  Overall, the cost of housing is still quite high here, though, unless moving an hour outside the city. 

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If history is any indication there will be a local crash three weeks before DH gets offered a promotion 200+ miles away.

Nationally, there’s really no telling. I think for people who have some financial stability the economic stimulus packages have really helped people scrape together a down payment. 

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There is a severe housing shortage in Northern New England. 

People are cashing out their expensive housing in New York and Connecticut (etc) and moving up here to outbid locals, paying cash, so that people who have lived and work(ed) here cannot find a place to live.  Lots of investors are also buying homes as AirBNBs, or vacation homes that sit empty a good part of the year.  Add to that the skyrocketing cost of building materials, and even if you could find a piece of land a modest home will cost way more to build than what your average worker can earn in this region. 

A single-mother-of-4 friend of mine just got evicted when the owner of her rental house sold, and she literally cannot find a rental; She and her kids are currently transient between friends' homes. A single male friend who is a masseuse at local resorts is about to have his long-term (20+ years) rental house sold when the owner passes from a terminal illness.  Another friend is being evicted from a rental due to the owner selling, and is planning to move down south.  It's just crazy up here, and I don't predict it will improve anytime soon due to the lack of new affordable housing stock.
 

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Where we are in N AL, houses are selling like crazy and builders are constantly building more on every piece of land they can get their hands on.  It was in the news today that we are one of the top places that people are moving to.  If the new Space Force headquarters comes to Huntsville as planned, it’s going to get even worse.  It’s great for jobs, builders, and home sellers, but if you are buying, it’s tough and not going to get better anytime soon, unless there’s a major downturn in the economy that’s worse than covid closures.

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Here the housing market is booming. Interest rates are so low that people are pulli g their money out of the bank and buying property. Borders are closed so people cannot go on holidays so are buying property

Foolishly the government allowed people to pull their supper so they are using the money to buy property. In my area a house is listed for a Max of 30 hours before being sold. There is not a rental house available anywhere. Prices are up over 17%

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I’m hoping that people want to move to Texas because I want to list our house on acreage there. We finally decided that even if we move back, we would want to live closer in.
 

Then I’d love it if houses here in California had a bit of a price drop.   

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2 hours ago, Amy in NH said:

There is a severe housing shortage in Northern New England. 

People are cashing out their expensive housing in New York and Connecticut (etc) and moving up here to outbid locals, paying cash, so that people who have lived and work(ed) here cannot find a place to live.  Lots of investors are also buying homes as AirBNBs, or vacation homes that sit empty a good part of the year.  Add to that the skyrocketing cost of building materials, and even if you could find a piece of land a modest home will cost way more to build than what your average worker can earn in this region. 

A single-mother-of-4 friend of mine just got evicted when the owner of her rental house sold, and she literally cannot find a rental; She and her kids are currently transient between friends' homes. A single male friend who is a masseuse at local resorts is about to have his long-term (20+ years) rental house sold when the owner passes from a terminal illness.  Another friend is being evicted from a rental due to the owner selling, and is planning to move down south.  It's just crazy up here, and I don't predict it will improve anytime soon due to the lack of new affordable housing stock.
 

So I wonder what that is doing to the NYC and Connecticut housing......

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9 minutes ago, Amy Gen said:

Then I’d love it if houses here in California had a bit of a price drop.   

We intend to stay in the South Bay so it would take something like the foreclosure crisis for a price drop. Our freeways (US101, CA85) are back to being jam up during office hours. 

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I think we are technically north bay but close to inner east bay. I feel like there will be foreclosures when when everyone’s mortgage forbearance ends.
 

It will depend on how Dh is feeling about his job here if we decide prices have come down enough to buy or if we go back to Texas.  

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20 hours ago, Plum said:

I saw an article about a landlord in CA with tenants that hadn't paid rent since just before the pandemic. With the moratorium, he was unable to evict them, but he could sell the house (tenants included!) at a steep discount. He lost $70k in the deal, but as a retiree, his peace of mind and reduction of stress level was worth it. 

 

Yes, this is happening to us right now. There has been some help from the state, but one tenant is still months behind. Our hands are pretty tied to do anything but ride it out for now.

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4 hours ago, Amy in NH said:

There is a severe housing shortage in Northern New England. 

People are cashing out their expensive housing in New York and Connecticut (etc) and moving up here to outbid locals, paying cash, so that people who have lived and work(ed) here cannot find a place to live.  Lots of investors are also buying homes as AirBNBs, or vacation homes that sit empty a good part of the year.  Add to that the skyrocketing cost of building materials, and even if you could find a piece of land a modest home will cost way more to build than what your average worker can earn in this region. 

A single-mother-of-4 friend of mine just got evicted when the owner of her rental house sold, and she literally cannot find a rental; She and her kids are currently transient between friends' homes. A single male friend who is a masseuse at local resorts is about to have his long-term (20+ years) rental house sold when the owner passes from a terminal illness.  Another friend is being evicted from a rental due to the owner selling, and is planning to move down south.  It's just crazy up here, and I don't predict it will improve anytime soon due to the lack of new affordable housing stock.
 

This is happening where I live in the Southwest. Only it's those from California coming in and paying cash so locals cannot afford anything - buying or renting. AirBNBs everywhere that don't sit empty. Rentals being sold. Can't do any home repairs because we can't find contractors or handymen with time to spare and even if we could, the charge is too high. We've seen this before here but not this bad. And we don't really see an end in sight given what is driving the exodus from elsewhere to our location.

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2 hours ago, BakersDozen said:

This is happening where I live in the Southwest. Only it's those from California coming in and paying cash so locals cannot afford anything - buying or renting. AirBNBs everywhere that don't sit empty. Rentals being sold. Can't do any home repairs because we can't find contractors or handymen with time to spare and even if we could, the charge is too high. We've seen this before here but not this bad. And we don't really see an end in sight given what is driving the exodus from elsewhere to our location.

This is happening where I live too.  Between people coming in from elsewhere and investor-developers, houses are selling at crazy prices before they are even listed.  The developers are buying the smaller homes and either renovating them to rent as AirBNBs or tearing them down and building new to sell to the incomers.  A house near me just sold for $100,000 more than the owner paid for it less than a year ago.   

Most contractors don't want to take on small remodeling jobs.  They would rather work on new constructions and total guts.  The handymen who will take on small jobs have long waiting lists and often have difficulty getting supplies. 

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Don’t sell until you buy, if you can. We canNOT find a house. It’s horrible. We did make a lot on our house but never expected to be looking this long (since October). We’re now considering building but that will take months. 

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7 minutes ago, Sherry in OH said:

This is happening where I live too.  Between people coming in from elsewhere and investor-developers, houses are selling at crazy prices before they are even listed.  The developers are buying the smaller homes and either renovating them to rent as AirBNBs or tearing them down and building new to sell to the incomers.  A house near me just sold for $100,000 more than the owner paid for it less than a year ago.   

Most contractors don't want to take on small remodeling jobs.  They would rather work on new constructions and total guts.  The handymen who will take on small jobs have long waiting lists and often have difficulty getting supplies. 

We bought our house at the beginning of 2019 and could sell it now for close to $100,000 more.  It is tempting, specifically because we could buy my parents' house from them and all live there together.

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3 hours ago, Arcadia said:

We intend to stay in the South Bay so it would take something like the foreclosure crisis for a price drop. Our freeways (US101, CA85) are back to being jam up during office hours. 

I have a realtor friend here who noted a significant softening in condo/town home prices at the end of last year.  I think they are still not rising like homes, because there are landlords looking to get out from under them, and a lot of single tech workers moving out of the area since they can work remotely for the foreseeable future and don’t want to be so cramped.

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Just now, kristin0713 said:

Don’t sell until you buy, if you can. We canNOT find a house. It’s horrible. We did make a lot on our house but never expected to be looking this long (since October). We’re now considering building but that will take months. 

I think if anyone is going to be selling their house right now to take advantage of the seller's market they have to be up for long term renting or buying before they sell. My brother spent at least 9 months looking for a house and then they got so desperate they spent 100k more than they had originally planned to. I would not have done what they did but as long as they plan on staying in that house for many decades they should be fine.

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3 minutes ago, Carol in Cal. said:

I have a realtor friend here who noted a significant softening in condo/town home prices at the end of last year.  I think they are still not rising like homes, because there are landlords looking to get out from under them, and a lot of single tech workers moving out of the area since they can work remotely for the foreseeable future and don’t want to be so cramped.

That is not the case here.  The townhouse we sold in 2018 for $150,000 could sell for over $200,000.  Which is absolutely ridiculous because it is in a shitty area.  The $150,000 sale price was too high in my opinion too though

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I drove by tonight to see a listing marked “under construction”. Turns out, they haven’t even started and it’s a terrible lot. But the price has gone up $70k since December.

There is a nearly completed one that my friend *just* went under contract for before I could decide if I wanted to see it. (I didn’t know she was looking at it, lol.) They jerked her around a whole bunch before finalizing.

There’s nothing existing worth looking at in my chosen area unless I want to renovate. (And those go quick.) I don’t.

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12 minutes ago, Carol in Cal. said:

I have a realtor friend here who noted a significant softening in condo/town home prices at the end of last year. 

We are hoping to buy a townhome or single family home. Our condo is paid up so we don’t need to sell to buy.
We are basically looking for floor plans that are friendly to working from home in the future if another pandemic situation comes about. 

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30 minutes ago, hjffkj said:

That is not the case here.  The townhouse we sold in 2018 for $150,000 could sell for over $200,000.  Which is absolutely ridiculous because it is in a shitty area.  The $150,000 sale price was too high in my opinion too though

I cannot imagine being able to buy anything for either of these prices. 

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15 minutes ago, Carol in Cal. said:

I cannot imagine being able to buy anything for either of these prices. 

And yet my sister lives in a part of the country where there starter homes start under $100,000 in good lower middle class neighborhoods.  It is a strange world we live in

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9 hours ago, Lecka said:

It is really hard for me to know what 25-year-old me would make of current times.  I think 25-year-old me would still want to have kids.  42-year-old me can wonder what 25-year-old me was thinking.  Things seem so different to me when I look at them for my kids instead of -- just the normal-to-me things going on around me.  

I knew 25-year-olds, when I was 25, who were thinking about things in a really different way -- but I don't think I would have been thinking that way in a 25-year-old version of myself.  

I think you accidentally replied in the wrong thread. 

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I am hoping that it's a seller's market when we sell our house and a buyer's market when we buy! 😁

Considering that we are also hoping to do those two things as simultaneously/seamlessly as possible... it's a Big Ask, but Imma asking anyway! 🙃

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9 hours ago, kristin0713 said:

Don’t sell until you buy, if you can. We canNOT find a house. It’s horrible. We did make a lot on our house but never expected to be looking this long (since October). We’re now considering building but that will take months. 

From what I'm hearing around here most sellers are refusing contingency offers, even when potential buyers already have signed contracts on their current homes. They can get plenty of offers very quickly from people who aren't in any sort of contingency situation. And from what I understand most of the buyers right in my immediate area are people who are at least somewhat local, not out-of-town investors. It's a crazy market. It's fun to watch, but I'm so glad we're not interested in buying or selling right now.

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It’s so interesting how markets vary. Our current market has never been down and when we bought two years ago ours was one of two offers within the first 24 hours. We bought having only done a virtual walkthrough with our agent. Our tax statement just came and it’s up about 10% from what we initially paid. From what my sister tells me in her area tho, starter homes (under $150k) are very tough to come by.

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I think the market will be booming in our area for quite some time. We're in a rural county that has long been a getaway for city people with second homes. Now, they are moving out here in droves to make this their primary residence. We work with many of them through our business, and they're saying their motivation for moving is the increase in crime and unrest in the city. 

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2 hours ago, Pawz4me said:

From what I'm hearing around here most sellers are refusing contingency offers, even when potential buyers already have signed contracts on their current homes. They can get plenty of offers very quickly from people who aren't in any sort of contingency situation. And from what I understand most of the buyers right in my immediate area are people who are at least somewhat local, not out-of-town investors. It's a crazy market. It's fun to watch, but I'm so glad we're not interested in buying or selling right now.

Me toooo!  We struggled for so long on whether to sell our house in the country or continue to remodel it.  Everything fell into place  in the fall of 2019 and we closed first of November on both selling the country house and buying in town.  With in 3 months the Pandemic had struck and the housing market went insane here.  I have thought so many times how glad I am we are in town and more or less settled.

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1 hour ago, Sneezyone said:

It’s so interesting how markets vary. Our current market has never been down and when we bought two years ago ours was one of two offers within the first 24 hours. We bought having only done a virtual walkthrough with our agent. Our tax statement just came and it’s up about 10% from what we initially paid. From what my sister tells me in her area tho, starter homes (under $150k) are very tough to come by.

In my area $150K might buy an empty lot.   Anything less than $500k will get multiple no-contingency, no inspection offers.   

My fear is the boom will raise our property taxes to a point where we cannot afford to stay.  We also cannot sell because we need to live somewhere.  Rent for a three-bedroom apartment is more than our mortgage.

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4 hours ago, Sneezyone said:

It’s so interesting how markets vary. Our current market has never been down and when we bought two years ago ours was one of two offers within the first 24 hours. We bought having only done a virtual walkthrough with our agent. Our tax statement just came and it’s up about 10% from what we initially paid. From what my sister tells me in her area tho, starter homes (under $150k) are very tough to come by.

The only thing you could buy here for under 150K would be a mobile home on leased land. That's crazy!

 

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1 minute ago, hippymamato3 said:

The only thing you could buy here for under 150K would be a mobile home on leased land. That's crazy!

 

So funny.  We paid 140K for our 2000 sf home on 1/2 acre in town with an inground pool.  And a separate apartment.

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5 minutes ago, hippymamato3 said:

The only thing you could buy here for under 150K would be a mobile home on leased land. That's crazy!

 

Large (3000 sq ft), historic homes in gentrifying areas are $150-225K where she lives. A 1300-1500 sq ft, 3BR starter with 1.5/2BA wouldn’t be more than $150K, especially 20 minutes outside of town. The reason DH and I are considering a condo for DD during college is that we could buy one for under $75k within 15 driving minutes of two state school campuses.

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I am in Florida, and we live in a condo building with 18 units.  Sixteen of those are fairly comparable in size though half are one story and half are two story.  We are on the beach, so views do improve with higher floors, and higher floors usually command higher prices, in general.  

However, three adjacent two-story units have sold since July of 2020. All on the same levels with the same views. The July 2020 sale was $759.  Went pending in five days. The November 2020 sale  was $890.  Went pending in three days. That is a 17% price increase in four and a half months. AND, the one that sold for $890 needed significant updating whereas the one that sold for $759 did not. The person who purchased the $890 one is totally gutting and redoing it.  A third (also two-story) was listed AND went pending just yesterday. It is completely updated so needs nothing, and sits between the other two.  It will be interesting to see what it went for once closing occurs, but the list price was $1.1 million. 

We live here full-time, but the majority of the units are owned by weekenders, so people selling these are not having to go out and re-buy something else.  I think they are seeing opportunities to cash out with nice gains and are taking them. Things that are priced correctly go extremely fast.  And what constitutes, “priced correctly,” seems to be increasing daily. 

My husband’s boss is looking to buy a new home in the same general area that we are in.  About six miles to the north. A house on the intracoastal side (desired by those with watercraft) was listed Monday advertised that no offers would be accepted until Friday.  An open house was held for interested buyers yesterday.  Approximately 35 people showed up.  Lots of frustration about parking, etc.  It’s clear that it will go for well above what it is listed for. 

I read an article in the WSJ a couple of days ago about several NY hedge funds moving to the Miami/Dade area (other coast from where we are).  Apparently, that migration has been slowly occurring, but I guess many of those folks have reached their breaking point, and are moving both operations and themselves solely down here. 

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28 minutes ago, Hoggirl said:

I am in Florida, and we live in a condo building with 18 units.  Sixteen of those are fairly comparable in size though half are one story and half are two story.  We are on the beach, so views do improve with higher floors, and higher floors usually command higher prices, in general.  

However, three adjacent two-story units have sold since July of 2020. All on the same levels with the same views. The July 2020 sale was $759.  Went pending in five days. The November 2020 sale  was $890.  Went pending in three days. That is a 17% price increase in four and a half months. AND, the one that sold for $890 needed significant updating whereas the one that sold for $759 did not. The person who purchased the $890 one is totally gutting and redoing it.  A third (also two-story) was listed AND went pending just yesterday. It is completely updated so needs nothing, and sits between the other two.  It will be interesting to see what it went for once closing occurs, but the list price was $1.1 million. 

We live here full-time, but the majority of the units are owned by weekenders, so people selling these are not having to go out and re-buy something else.  I think they are seeing opportunities to cash out with nice gains and are taking them. Things that are priced correctly go extremely fast.  And what constitutes, “priced correctly,” seems to be increasing daily. 

My husband’s boss is looking to buy a new home in the same general area that we are in.  About six miles to the north. A house on the intracoastal side (desired by those with watercraft) was listed Monday advertised that no offers would be accepted until Friday.  An open house was held for interested buyers yesterday.  Approximately 35 people showed up.  Lots of frustration about parking, etc.  It’s clear that it will go for well above what it is listed for. 

I read an article in the WSJ a couple of days ago about several NY hedge funds moving to the Miami/Dade area (other coast from where we are).  Apparently, that migration has been slowly occurring, but I guess many of those folks have reached their breaking point, and are moving both operations and themselves solely down here. 

I read that WSJ article and thought of it immediately when I started reading your comment.

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Just got this in an email from Kiplingers

Home prices soared in 2020, as many people sought to relocate from crowded urban neighborhoods to suburbs with more space for parents to work from home and kids to play in the yard. And 2021 is shaping up to be another hot year for housing, according to the lead story in last week’s Kiplinger Letter. After rising 11% in 2020, look for home prices to jump another 7% this year. Why? Demand continues to outstrip supply. The nation already was facing a shortage of new homes, and builders can’t work fast enough to change that. Lots that are ready to build on are scarce, regulations can slow construction, and the cost of building materials has shot up. That means sellers will continue to enjoy the upper hand, with most homes that do go on the market selling quickly, often with multiple bidders jockeying to be the lucky buyer. Even some local markets that were sleepy before COVID-19 have seen prices jump. For instance, prices in Connecticut soared by 16% in 2020, after a mere 1% rise in 2019. The difference was all the New Yorkers looking to move out to the suburbs in 2020.

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Bumping this to report that our neighbor put his house on the market Thursday morning. It's been crazycakes bonkers since then--a constant stream of showings. The listing says "submit your best offer by 5:00 p.m. on 3/6." It's now 4:45 and there are still people lined up to see it. He has it priced decently (IMO), but a realtor friend of another neighbor says he'll probably get at least $50,000 over his asking price.

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