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The Vaccine Thread


JennyD

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2 minutes ago, KeriJ said:

Maybe this has been covered before.  I get lost in the long threads sometimes.  But after sorting through numbers and percentages of protection,  am I way off to think that being fully vaccinated by J&J is similar protection to 1 dose of Pfizer? And vice versa? Does that question make sense? 

Question makes sense. Hard to answer as there are few apples-to-apples comparisons. It has 66% effectiveness at preventing infection (similar to 1 dose of mRNA but better than 1 dose of OxfordAstrazeneca or Novovax), but there were some odd gaps in the study where this figure was done.

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31 minutes ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

Question makes sense. Hard to answer as there are few apples-to-apples comparisons. It has 66% effectiveness at preventing infection (similar to 1 dose of mRNA but better than 1 dose of OxfordAstrazeneca or Novovax), but there were some odd gaps in the study where this figure was done.

I heard Paul Offit, I think, say that the second mRNA vaccine boosts your longer lasting T cell response. I wonder if it is really possible to compare the adenovirus vaccines with the mRNA, as I would imagine the mechanisms for the different immunity responses are different, but I really do not know much about it, so I may be wondering nonsense.

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16 hours ago, Terabith said:

I listened to an interview with Dr. Paul Offitt. He disagrees with Pfizer's push for booster.
 

https://www.chop.edu/doctors/offit-paul-a

 

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54 minutes ago, KeriJ said:

Maybe this has been covered before.  I get lost in the long threads sometimes.  But after sorting through numbers and percentages of protection,  am I way off to think that being fully vaccinated by J&J is similar protection to 1 dose of Pfizer? And vice versa? Does that question make sense? 

Watch the video I posted, Dr. Offitt addresses this question.

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Did you guys read the  info coming out of Israel that says Pfizer is only 39% effective against Delta? 

Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective in Israel where the delta variant is the dominant strain, but still provides strong protection against severe illness and hospitalization, according to a new report from the country’s Health Ministry.

The efficacy figure, which is based on an unspecified number of people between June 20 and July 17, is down from an earlier estimate of 64% two weeks ago and conflicts with data out of the U.K. that found the shot was 88% effective against symptomatic disease caused by the variant.

However, the two-dose vaccine still works very well in preventing people from getting seriously sick, demonstrating 88% effectiveness against hospitalization and 91% effectiveness against severe illness, according to the Israeli data published Thursday.

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20 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Did you guys read the  info coming out of Israel that says Pfizer is only 39% effective against Delta? 

Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective in Israel where the delta variant is the dominant strain, but still provides strong protection against severe illness and hospitalization, according to a new report from the country’s Health Ministry.

The efficacy figure, which is based on an unspecified number of people between June 20 and July 17, is down from an earlier estimate of 64% two weeks ago and conflicts with data out of the U.K. that found the shot was 88% effective against symptomatic disease caused by the variant.

However, the two-dose vaccine still works very well in preventing people from getting seriously sick, demonstrating 88% effectiveness against hospitalization and 91% effectiveness against severe illness, according to the Israeli data published Thursday.

I'd love to see the actual study, but we must also keep in mind that they vaccinated first, and would be the first to see waning immunity, which is why I can't completely discredit their information.

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11 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Did you guys read the  info coming out of Israel that says Pfizer is only 39% effective against Delta? 

Pfizer and BioNTech’s Covid-19 vaccine is just 39% effective in Israel where the delta variant is the dominant strain, but still provides strong protection against severe illness and hospitalization, according to a new report from the country’s Health Ministry.

The efficacy figure, which is based on an unspecified number of people between June 20 and July 17, is down from an earlier estimate of 64% two weeks ago and conflicts with data out of the U.K. that found the shot was 88% effective against symptomatic disease caused by the variant.

However, the two-dose vaccine still works very well in preventing people from getting seriously sick, demonstrating 88% effectiveness against hospitalization and 91% effectiveness against severe illness, according to the Israeli data published Thursday.

Just saw it then!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/07/23/pfizer-shot-just-39-effective-against-delta-infection-but-largely-prevents-severe-illness-israel-study-suggests/

ugh… still effectively against serious illness but symptomatic and infection not so good.

 

 

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4 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Just saw it then!

https://www.forbes.com/sites/roberthart/2021/07/23/pfizer-shot-just-39-effective-against-delta-infection-but-largely-prevents-severe-illness-israel-study-suggests/

ugh… still effectively against serious illness but symptomatic and infection not so good.

 

 

I read a good theory of explanation this morning, which kind of goes back to what I was saying above. https://www.jpost.com/ israel-pfizer-news/is-israel-or-the-uk-right-when-it-comes-to-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-674766

Edited by melmichigan
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13 minutes ago, melmichigan said:

I read a good theory of explanation this morning, which kind of goes back to what I was saying above. https://www.jpost.com/ israel-pfizer-news/is-israel-or-the-uk-right-when-it-comes-to-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-674766

Hmm pretty interesting explanation although still concerning if immunity is waning after six months.  Hard enough to get people vaccinated once let alone if we end up needing six monthly boosters!

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16 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Hmm pretty interesting explanation although still concerning if immunity is waning after six months.  Hard enough to get people vaccinated once let alone if we end up needing six monthly boosters!

In the US, we have all this extra vaccine, and they say there are logistical hurdles making it not possible to get them distributed in other countries before they expire (which is maddening to me that people can’t just put their heads together and figure something out—surely there’s a way!). But, with all this extra, and so many people who really were eager to be vaccinated as soon as possible, I expect there would be a decent sized cohort of people who would sign up for a booster as soon as they could. Especially the elderly or immune compromised, who could benefit most. 
 

I’d love to see some data comparing breakthrough infection frequency to when people were vaccinated, to see if earlier vaccinees are the ones having most breakthroughs. They would have to match cases to do that right. Or, using health care workers to study might work, since otherwise there’s too much confounding by age, since the elderly were among the first vaccinated. 

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1 hour ago, KSera said:

In the US, we have all this extra vaccine, and they say there are logistical hurdles making it not possible to get them distributed in other countries before they expire (which is maddening to me that people can’t just put their heads together and figure something out—surely there’s a way!). But, with all this extra, and so many people who really were eager to be vaccinated as soon as possible, I expect there would be a decent sized cohort of people who would sign up for a booster as soon as they could. Especially the elderly or immune compromised, who could benefit most. 
 

I’d love to see some data comparing breakthrough infection frequency to when people were vaccinated, to see if earlier vaccinees are the ones having most breakthroughs. They would have to match cases to do that right. Or, using health care workers to study might work, since otherwise there’s too much confounding by age, since the elderly were among the first vaccinated. 

From the article above, “Among more than 1.8 million people who received two shots by January 31, some 5,770 contracted the virus – and 1,181 of them, or 20% of all new infections, were contracted during the week of July 11 to 17, the Health Ministry reported.”  
 

I know my husband was vaccined in January and he’s more than willing to get a booster at this point. He’s the only person at work wearing a 😷.

Edited by melmichigan
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Good overview from Dr. Campbell about vaccine longevity from Israeli study and what they know in the UK. Breaks down infection, severe illness and hospitalization.
 

 

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3 hours ago, calbear said:

Good overview from Dr. Campbell about vaccine longevity from Israeli study and what they know in the UK. Breaks down infection, severe illness and hospitalization.
 

 


The breakdown is startling and the potential for the US is mind blowing if accurate. I believe there have already been studies showing the longer time frame between doses in UK is known to increase efficacy, and if it’s increasing the length of immunity these are things we need to know.  
 

 

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1 hour ago, melmichigan said:


The breakdown is startling and the potential for the US is mind blowing if accurate. I believe there have already been studies showing the longer time frame between doses in UK is known to increase efficacy, and if it’s increasing the length of immunity these are things we need to know.  
 

 

Neither UK nor Israel used any Moderna, did they? Seems like I read something in the last few days about Moderna possibly lasting longer (likely due to higher dose?). I’ll have to look for that, but seems it would be relevant for any booster roll out to know which shots were needing boosting first. There’s still that other recent study showing long lasting protection from germinal centers that makes me hopeful the majority of people will have persistent protection. 

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2 minutes ago, KSera said:

Neither UK nor Israel used any Moderna, did they? Seems like I read something in the last few days about Moderna possibly lasting longer (likely due to higher dose?). I’ll have to look for that, but seems it would be relevant for any booster roll out to know which shots were needing boosting first. There’s still that other recent study showing long lasting protection from germinal centers that makes me hopeful the majority of people will have persistent protection. 

I am very interested in the Moderna info if you see it.  I haven't read that.  The 4 of us in my family are split 50/50 with Moderna and Pfizer.

What is a germinal center?

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16 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

I am very interested in the Moderna info if you see it.  I haven't read that.  The 4 of us in my family are split 50/50 with Moderna and Pfizer.

What is a germinal center?

I’m coming up empty on the Moderna study, but I will keep looking and keep my eyes open for it. Here’s an explanation of what happens in the germinal centers:

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/28/health/coronavirus-vaccines-immunity.html

After an infection or a vaccination, a specialized structure called the germinal center forms in lymph nodes. This structure is an elite school of sorts for B cells — a boot camp where they become increasingly sophisticated and learn to recognize a diverse set of viral genetic sequences.

The broader the range and the longer these cells have to practice, the more likely they are to be able to thwart variants of the virus that may emerge.

“Everyone always focuses on the virus evolving — this is showing that the B cells are doing the same thing,” said Marion Pepper, an immunologist at the University of Washington in Seattle. “And it’s going to be protective against ongoing evolution of the virus, which is really encouraging.”

After infection with the coronavirus, the germinal center forms in the lungs. But after vaccination, the cells’ education takes place in lymph nodes in the armpits, within reach of researchers.

Edited by KSera
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36 minutes ago, KSera said:

Neither UK nor Israel used any Moderna, did they? Seems like I read something in the last few days about Moderna possibly lasting longer (likely due to higher dose?). I’ll have to look for that, but seems it would be relevant for any booster roll out to know which shots were needing boosting first. There’s still that other recent study showing long lasting protection from germinal centers that makes me hopeful the majority of people will have persistent protection. 

I wouldn't be surprised if Moderna did last longer, given how much of a punch it packs, but I know I wouldn't want it, lol. I still occasionally get a headache that's eerily reminiscent of a very mild version of the vaccine headache I had for like 2 weeks... I can't swear it's related (it's too easy to think stuff like that), but it's definitely making me suspicious. 

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11 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I wouldn't be surprised if Moderna did last longer, given how much of a punch it packs, but I know I wouldn't want it,

Well, I’m certainly very grateful my family and I were able to get it. We didn’t have a choice of which mRNA at the time, and we would have taken either one and did.  I’m sorry you had such a headache though. Dh and I each had the headache, body aches and mild fever thing the next day, but then totally fine. And our teen and adult kids had nothing. So, still very much worth it. 

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1 minute ago, KSera said:

Well, I’m certainly very grateful my family and I were able to get it. We didn’t have a choice of which mRNA at the time, and we would have taken either one and did.  I’m sorry you had such a headache though. Dh and I each had the headache, body aches and mild fever thing the next day, but then totally fine. And our teen and adult kids had nothing. So, still very much worth it. 

Yeah, I'd have taken either one as well, but I'm glad I got Pfizer. 

I'm the only one I know IRL who's had anything like a potential lingering effect, so I know it's uncommon. And honestly, the same things that make me prone to long-term vaccine effects would probably make me likelier to get long COVID, so I'll get a booster when I need to. I just feel nervous about it 😕 . 

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Am I the only one seeing good things in UK and Israeli numbers? UK has virtually no death spike despite massive number of infections. Israeli spike in infections isn’t even that big as far as I am concerned.

But I also think herd immunity isn’t ever going to happen and we will have to live with this forever. So from that perspective the data shows promise.

I had Moderna and will gladly line up with a shot in the Fall that had both clue and Covid booster in one, as they promised. 

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1 minute ago, Roadrunner said:

Am I the only one seeing good things in UK and Israeli numbers? UK has virtually no death spike despite massive number of infections. Israeli spike in infections isn’t even that big as far as I am concerned.

But I also think herd immunity isn’t ever going to happen and we will have to live with this forever. So from that perspective the data shows promise.

I had Moderna and will gladly line up with a shot in the Fall that had both clue and Covid booster in one, as they promised. 

I find the UK numbers more reassuring than the Israeli ones. If Israel's spike doesn't go that high, I'll find that reassuring, but it's clearly not done... 

I also find the idea that vaccines wear off after 6 months a huge bummer. I was really hoping for more immunity than that, especially as someone who had an unpleasant time after the shot -- I am not looking forward to boosters. 

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1 minute ago, Roadrunner said:

 

Am I the only one seeing good things in UK and Israeli numbers? UK has virtually no death spike despite massive number of infections. Israeli spike in infections isn’t even that big as far as I am concerned.

But I also think herd immunity isn’t ever going to happen and we will have to live with this forever. So from that perspective the data shows promise.

 

I’m watching, too. I think we talked about it on the Wuhan thread this morning. We’ve been several weeks behind the UK, and I’d love to think that we’re going to see a similar decrease in just a few weeks, but they don’t have the large pockets of unvaccinated populations the way we do. I think it will take us longer to reach herd immunity in those areas, but I do think it’s possible enough people are going to be infected there that we will get there. At high cost 😢
 

The article that was shared on the Wuhan thread said a whopping 92% of UK adults have antibodies from vaccine or infection. 

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4 hours ago, KSera said:

Neither UK nor Israel used any Moderna, did they? Seems like I read something in the last few days about Moderna possibly lasting longer (likely due to higher dose?). I’ll have to look for that, but seems it would be relevant for any booster roll out to know which shots were needing boosting first. There’s still that other recent study showing long lasting protection from germinal centers that makes me hopeful the majority of people will have persistent protection. 

The UK has used Moderna along with Pfizer and AZ. I don't know of any split-out statistics though. We are expecting boosters for everyone over 50 or fragile in the autumn, whichever vaccine they received. 

Edited by Laura Corin
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Confirmed cases have doubled in my area over the past 7 days. Deaths are slightly up, but not by a statistically significant amount (which isn't surprising as hospitalisations weren't up by much on the last fortnightly dashboard either, and most COVID deaths are preceded by hospital visits). Unfortunately I will need to wait until next week's full dashboard to know what's happened to hospitalisations and testing in my area. This is particularly interesting as it's come from the same set of data that says the UK overall is having a reduction in cases and deaths.

On the other hand, the day of re-opening had the lowest amount of people in town that anyone I spoke to in shops could remember since last lockdown. (I was only there myself because I unexpectedly needed to go to the library, though once I realised town centre was practically deserted, I took the opportunity to do a full shopping trip). I suspect the case increase is people importing it from other events such as the Euro 2020 football.

Edited by ieta_cassiopeia
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13 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

I wouldn't be surprised if Moderna did last longer, given how much of a punch it packs, but I know I wouldn't want it, lol. I still occasionally get a headache that's eerily reminiscent of a very mild version of the vaccine headache I had for like 2 weeks... I can't swear it's related (it's too easy to think stuff like that), but it's definitely making me suspicious. 

We didn't have a choice at the time of we got our vaccines.  Dh and I got Moderna and had no side effects at all except I had a sore arm the first time and hardly at all the second time.  

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3 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

We didn't have a choice at the time of we got our vaccines.  Dh and I got Moderna and had no side effects at all except I had a sore arm the first time and hardly at all the second time.  

Oh, I'd have gotten Moderna if that was what there was! It's just that, now that I know how I react to them, I'm glad I didn't get an even bigger dose. 

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1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

Oh, I'd have gotten Moderna if that was what there was! It's just that, now that I know how I react to them, I'm glad I didn't get an even bigger dose. 

Do you think that is how it will always be if you have to have a booster every year?  Or will your body be used to it and have lower reaction to it?  

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The moderna might be doing better simply because it is spaced at 4 weeks instead of 3 like Pfizer.  All the older people in my family got moderna.  DS12 got Pfizer with a 9.5 week interval, which I'm thinking might be the best possible thing.

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16 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Do you think that is how it will always be if you have to have a booster every year?  Or will your body be used to it and have lower reaction to it?  

I have no clue 😕 . I worry about it, honestly. 

 

2 minutes ago, Syllieann said:

The moderna might be doing better simply because it is spaced at 4 weeks instead of 3 like Pfizer.  All the older people in my family got moderna.  DS12 got Pfizer with a 9.5 week interval, which I'm thinking might be the best possible thing.

Moderna is also a higher dose, though. 

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13 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Do you think that is how it will always be if you have to have a booster every year?  Or will your body be used to it and have lower reaction to it?  

That's what I wonder.  As viruses become endemic I feel like we're less likely to have strong reactions to them (and/or their vaccines) and they will become more minor annoyances.  Obviously if you have immune system problems all bets are off.  But like very minor viruses can already be really rough the elderly or cancer patients doing strong chemo, etc.  

I'm watching the delta data closely and I'm not super alarmed by UK and Israel numbers at this time.  Our own local numbers are still better than last summer so as a vaccinated person I'm still feeling ok about our outdoor fun summer with a fully vaccinated house hold.  

I just got word my college student was potentially exposed on campus last week(he was there for a rehearsal).  The person was vaccinated and asymptomatic but tested positive.  I am assuming they had to test for another reason (work, campus requirements, travel, etc).  Given kid is fully vaxxed and the details he gave, it seems unlikely he was really directly exposed.  And given this was someone vaccinated and asymptomatic, their viral levels are probably low.  We are having him tested and having him hide in his room for a few days with his air purifier and his technology!.  If he tests negative, stays asymptomatic and we don't hear about any other spread from that event we'll release him later in the week.  GAH!  This is our first potential exposure and given conditions probably not a problem but still an annoyance.  My younger teen is doing some summer stuff that would be super devastating for her to need to drop the next 2-3 weeks.  They have truly brought joy back to the house and are safely done with vaccinated crews so they need to happen.  

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30 minutes ago, Laura Corin said:

I wonder if this is true, given the very different vaccination patterns.

Not only the different vaccination patterns, but also the different overall rates of vaccination and masking practices.  I seriously doubt we're coming down any time soon.

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1 hour ago, Syllieann said:

The moderna might be doing better simply because it is spaced at 4 weeks instead of 3 like Pfizer.  All the older people in my family got moderna.  DS12 got Pfizer with a 9.5 week interval, which I'm thinking might be the best possible thing.

Ugh I wish I would have done this for all 4 of us.  But at that time it was get the first thing you can and get it right when you are eligible.  Ugh how fast things change in this situation.

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12 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

That's going to delay things, isn't it. 

The Moderna trial began recruiting patients in March with the aim of enrolling 6,795 participants between the ages of six months and less than 12 years. Mr. Jordan said the company is “actively discussing” a proposal with the FDA.

Pfizer is on a faster timetable than Moderna, and may be able to meet the F.D.A.’s expectations on a bigger trial size and still file a request to expand emergency authorization of its vaccine by the end of September. Reviewing all the safety and efficacy data will likely take regulators at least a few weeks.

Pfizer has previously said it expects to have results for the 5-to-11-year old group in September, with results for children aged two to five shortly after. Results for the youngest children between the ages of six months and two years old are expected in October or November. A spokeswoman said Monday that the company had no updates on its timetable.

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56 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

That's going to delay things, isn't it. 

Pfizer is saying results for 5-11 in September, and the article said a few weeks will be needed for CDC/FDA whoever to review the data. So...October sometime maybe?

That would get two of my kids vaccinated, and then "shortly after" for the 2-5 yr olds. 

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3 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Pfizer is saying results for 5-11 in September, and the article said a few weeks will be needed for CDC/FDA whoever to review the data. So...October sometime maybe?

That would get two of my kids vaccinated, and then "shortly after" for the 2-5 yr olds. 

October sometime would be great. I'd definitely take that. 

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3 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

October sometime would be great. I'd definitely take that. 

Same. Sucks for school kids starting back in August, unvaccinated (and unmasked in my county), but I can deal with a few more months I guess. 

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1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

I wonder if it's possible to sign up for the expanded trials... 

I've gotten on every list I can find -- trials here are massively oversubscribed, but I have a friend who got her 11yo into the Moderna trial, so it's worth a try.

I am very glad to read about the expanded trials.  My read is that it is a potential alternative to what the FDA floated last week, which was requiring 4-6 months of follow-up data before issuing an EUA .

 

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7 minutes ago, JennyD said:

I've gotten on every list I can find -- trials here are massively oversubscribed, but I have a friend who got her 11yo into the Moderna trial, so it's worth a try.

I am very glad to read about the expanded trials.  My read is that it is a potential alternative to what the FDA floated last week, which was requiring 4-6 months of follow-up data before issuing an EUA .

You're probably right, but then if they are JUST enrolling people into this trial, wouldn't this still take a while? 

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1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

You're probably right, but then if they are JUST enrolling people into this trial, wouldn't this still take a while? 

It will take longer than either of us would like, that's for sure, but there won't be any need to recruit, at least -- these trials have huge waiting lists than they can draw on immediately.   

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1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

You're probably right, but then if they are JUST enrolling people into this trial, wouldn't this still take a while? 

they are specifically looking at myocarditis, which happens quickly so shouldn't add much time. if kids are going to get it, it would be shortly after being vaccinated. 

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