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The Vaccine Thread


JennyD

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3 hours ago, melmichigan said:

That's about 2400 people double-vaccinated vs 1600 part-vaccinated. 68.5% of people are fully-vaccinated, so it's still more people who are not fully vaccinated than are... ...although I do not like that there's been a 30-percentage-point swing in a space of time where the vaccination rate only improved 2.5-percentage-points.

One thing not mentioned there is that Delta itself is mutating. Delta Plus has been verified to be in the UK, and there may be other sub-variants complicating the picture as well.

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1 hour ago, whitestavern said:

I am sure TPTB are collecting data on the breakthrough cases, specifically which vaccines the people that are hospitalized and/or dying received. Has anyone seen any information on this? 

What is TPTB?

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18 hours ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

That's about 2400 people double-vaccinated vs 1600 part-vaccinated. 68.5% of people are fully-vaccinated, so it's still more people who are not fully vaccinated than are... ...although I do not like that there's been a 30-percentage-point swing in a space of time where the vaccination rate only improved 2.5-percentage-points.
 

The numbers are reversed. Despite the link text saying the opposite (I hate it when headlines in a link are inaccurate like that!). Johnson spoke wrong yesterday and corrected himself, which is what the article is reporting. 60% are unvaccinated, despite over 90% of those most at risk being vaccinated. 

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17 minutes ago, KSera said:

The numbers are reversed. Despite the link text saying the opposite (I hate it when headlines in a link are inaccurate like that!). Johnson spoke wrong yesterday and corrected himself, which is what the article is reporting. 60% are unvaccinated, despite over 90% of those most at risk being vaccinated. 

Just saw this where someone did some rough calculations based on vaccinated percentages. It calculated out at 88-92% efficacy at preventing hospitalization (depending if you control for most being elderly)

And the underestimate calculation:

 

Edited by KSera
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1 hour ago, KSera said:

Just saw this where someone did some rough calculations based on vaccinated percentages. It calculated out at 88-92% efficacy at preventing hospitalization (depending if you control for most being elderly)

And the underestimate calculation:

 

But Mainwood is using the 1-dose vax rate and Valance is using the 2-dose vax rate. Valance is saying that 40% of infections are in people who received TWO doses, which is 67%, not 86%. So double vaccination "squished" 67% to 40% — according to Mainwood's math that's 0.67/2 = 33% efficacy. I don't think that calculation is particularly useful, but his claim of 89% efficacy is based on false numbers.

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Latest vaccine efficacy data from Scotland - currently 99 percent Delta and using Pfizer,  Moderna and AZ.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f1a5c162-e9a4-11eb-baaa-861dba20d87a?shareToken=c0d4b3197cfbd9e79b98ec340cd45067

The first statement seems to bundle single and double jabs together, perhaps leading to lower efficacy.  The second is explicitly double jabbed 

Screenshot_20210721-224418_The Times.jpg

Edited by Laura Corin
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https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.19.452771v1.full  (pre-print, so not yet peer reviewed)

The recommendations for surveillance of vaccinated breakthrough cases is something that I'm very frustrated with.  I also don't know how the CDC would approach a second dose with J&J, and that was my original concern with the way it was marketed.  

Edited by melmichigan
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33 minutes ago, melmichigan said:

 I also don't know how the CDC would approach a second dose with J&J, and that was my original concern with the way it was marketed.  

I find it kind of suspicious that J&J has not released any data at all on their 2-dose trial, even though it ran in parallel with their 1-dose trial, so they should have plenty of data by now. I assume they are trying to figure out how to spin the results, because either outcome has a down side — either a 2nd dose significantly increases efficacy and they have to figure out how to "sell" that, since their marketing was all about being one-and-done, or a 2nd dose only slightly increases efficacy and leaves their vaccine well below mRNA rates, even with two doses, in which case their market is mostly going to be 3rd world countries who can't afford mRNA vaccines but also can't get enough of the similar but much cheaper AZ. Neither result is going to be great for their stock price. 

One of the studies I saw recently suggested that 1 dose of Moderna had better efficacy than 1 dose of either Pfizer or AZ (or presumably J&J), possibly because their dose is so much higher than Pfizer (100 vs 30 µg). If that turns out to be accurate then people who really only want 1 dose would be better off with Moderna than J&J. And then there's Novavax which will hopefully be approved in early fall, which has better efficacy than J&J, none of the storage issues of Pfizer & Moderna, and may appeal to people who are wary of the mRNA technology. 

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1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

One of the studies I saw recently suggested that 1 dose of Moderna had better efficacy than 1 dose of either Pfizer or AZ (or presumably J&J), possibly because their dose is so much higher than Pfizer (100 vs 30 µg). If that turns out to be accurate then people who really only want 1 dose would be better off with Moderna than J&J. 

I'd be interested in this study if you come across it again.

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2 hours ago, Corraleno said:

I find it kind of suspicious that J&J has not released any data at all on their 2-dose trial, even though it ran in parallel with their 1-dose trial, so they should have plenty of data by now. I assume they are trying to figure out how to spin the results, because either outcome has a down side — either a 2nd dose significantly increases efficacy and they have to figure out how to "sell" that, since their marketing was all about being one-and-done, or a 2nd dose only slightly increases efficacy and leaves their vaccine well below mRNA rates, even with two doses, in which case their market is mostly going to be 3rd world countries who can't afford mRNA vaccines but also can't get enough of the similar but much cheaper AZ. Neither result is going to be great for their stock price. 

 

I have been wondering about this, too.  The results were expected months ago! I imagine a lot of participants dropped out, but it was a huge trial -- surely they know how well their 2-dose regimen works at this point.  Your theories for the radio silence make a lot of sense.

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2 hours ago, melmichigan said:

I'd be interested in this study if you come across it again.

I finally found it, it was a Canadian study (preprint). Here is a summary of the data for 1 dose against different variants:

1 dose efficacy against infection with Alpha:
Moderna = 83%
Pfizer = 66%
AZ = 64%

1 dose efficacy against infection with Beta/Gamma:
Moderna = 77%
Pfizer = 60%
AZ = 48%

1 dose efficacy against infection with Delta:
Moderna = 72% infection
*Pfizer = 56% infection
*AZ = 67% infection

*They acknowledge that their Delta numbers are anomalous and are out of line with other studies. They had very low numbers of Delta cases and included a lot of “probables,” so the numbers for Alpha, where they had over 5,000 cases vs ~350 total for “probable” Delta, are likely more reliable. But Moderna consistently came out on top for efficacy of 1 dose.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.28.21259420v1.full.pdf

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6 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Do we know how much vaccinated people are spreading Delta? 

 

5 hours ago, melmichigan said:

It certainly is being ignored in the US.

This is important. Though, the thought of locking down again, being an island when the world around me goes on as normal... I just don't know if I can do it again. But if I could possibly kill someone, then I must. 

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8 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Do we know how much vaccinated people are spreading Delta? 

We don't know, but we know it is possible and that vaccinated people have spread it in some cases. 

We also show that breakthrough infections seem to have lower viral load, so less able to spread than unvaccinated, so there is that. 

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6 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

We don't know, but we know it is possible and that vaccinated people have spread it in some cases. 

We also show that breakthrough infections seem to have lower viral load, so less able to spread than unvaccinated, so there is that. 

Yeah, I think I knew that much. I'm just trying to think about situations like our babysitters... we've started having them come over again, and now I don't know if that's a good idea or not 😕 . 

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2 hours ago, TexasProud said:

 

This is important. Though, the thought of locking down again, being an island when the world around me goes on as normal... I just don't know if I can do it again. But if I could possibly kill someone, then I must. 

I’m back to being extremely careful again because I feel the same way. I wish we had better information. I don’t know if I’m misinterpreting things, but it just feels like political issues have gotten in the way of being able to have good, clear information since the beginning. I know, of course, that we’re learning as we go, but it seems so much harder to collect data and make it known, because of the crazy political situation with Covid.

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16 hours ago, Jaybee said:

I came to post the same thing. Really heartbreaking. I had trouble deciding which excerpt to quote, because the whole thing is worth a read:

“Dr. Brytney Cobia said Monday that all but one of her COVID patients in Alabama did not receive the vaccine. The vaccinated patient, she said, just needed a little oxygen and is expected to fully recover. Some of the others are dying.

“I’m admitting young healthy people to the hospital with very serious COVID infections,” wrote Cobia, a hospitalist at Grandview Medical Center in Birmingham, in an emotional Facebook post Sunday. “One of the last things they do before they’re intubated is beg me for the vaccine. I hold their hand and tell them that I’m sorry, but it’s too late.”

😢

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The three largest hospital/health care systems in my area announced today that they're going to require all of their employees to get vaccinated. Which . . . good for them. But also . . .what took so long?

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The NFL let its players know about league vaccine policy today:

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/nfl-cardinals-de-andre-hopkins-nfl-vaccine-policy-making-me-question-my-future-in-the-nfl-222155154.html

"In a memo to teams on Thursday shared by NFL Network's Tom Pelissero, the NFL laid out what the consequences will be for teams that experience breakouts caused by or among unvaccinated players. The NFL will no longer be bending over backward to postpone and reschedule games if one of those breakouts occurs. Teams will be forced to forfeit if the game has to be cancelled, and players on both teams won't get paid."

Edited by DoraBora
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1 hour ago, DoraBora said:

The NFL let its players know about league vaccine policy today:

https://www.yahoo.com/sports/nfl-cardinals-de-andre-hopkins-nfl-vaccine-policy-making-me-question-my-future-in-the-nfl-222155154.html

"In a memo to teams on Thursday shared by NFL Network's Tom Pelissero, the NFL laid out what the consequences will be for teams that experience breakouts caused by or among unvaccinated players. The NFL will no longer be bending over backward to postpone and reschedule games if one of those breakouts occurs. Teams will be forced to forfeit if the game has to be cancelled, and players on both teams won't get paid."

The SEC said this too= college games.

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Vaccine knowledgeable people - I have a question. 

To recommend AZ to young adults or to recommend they wait up to another 8 -12 weeks for potential Pfizer. 

Context:

Delta outbreak in city - cases increasing each day. Approx 140/80,000 tests today.

In a hotspot in the outbreak with cases increasing. 

Neither young adult working out of the home right now. 

One needs to shop, attend med appts in person. 

The other can shop but doesn't have to at the moment. 

No underlying conditions but one is overweight. 

AZ is not recommended for their age group (17-25). 

I still feel that their risks of death or disability from Covid are very low - and the risks of AZ clotting death or disability also very low.

But not sure how to weigh up the shifting balance if/as Delta continues to respond poorly to lockdown. 

Any advice? 

I'd like to provide good advice to both kids. 

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Oh, second question. 

Dd2 is worried about her Dad ( dialysis, hot spot, one dose of AZ approx 3-4 weeks ago. Unmasked environment at dialysis. Has to travel out of his home almost daily for medical care). 

Tell her to tell him to get his second AZ @ 4 weeks? 

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20 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

Oh, second question. 

Dd2 is worried about her Dad ( dialysis, hot spot, one dose of AZ approx 3-4 weeks ago. Unmasked environment at dialysis. Has to travel out of his home almost daily for medical care). 

Tell her to tell him to get his second AZ @ 4 weeks? 

Found this: https://theconversation.com/second-dose-of-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-faqs-about-blood-clots-safety-risks-and-symptoms-161587

Are the risks different for a second dose?

The risk of a blood clot after a second dose is about one in 600,000, which is one-tenth the risk of clotting after an initial dose. If you were comfortable getting the first dose, you should feel good about going ahead and continuing to help the community bring the pandemic closer to its end. In addition, knowing the symptoms associated with the vaccine-related clots allows for timely recognition and immediate treatment.

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38 minutes ago, KSera said:

Found this: https://theconversation.com/second-dose-of-astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-faqs-about-blood-clots-safety-risks-and-symptoms-161587

Are the risks different for a second dose?

The risk of a blood clot after a second dose is about one in 600,000, which is one-tenth the risk of clotting after an initial dose. If you were comfortable getting the first dose, you should feel good about going ahead and continuing to help the community bring the pandemic closer to its end. In addition, knowing the symptoms associated with the vaccine-related clots allows for timely recognition and immediate treatment.

Thanks. 

Not really worried 2nd AZ for him. More the timing - 4 weeks rather than 8 or 12. 

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7 hours ago, Roadrunner said:

Here are CA numbers on vaccinated individuals. I thing this is very good news, and they acknowledge those who have died might not have all been from Covid. 
 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/abc7.com/amp/breakthrough-covid-cases-coronavirus-vaccine-california-delta-variant/10903440/

What I’d like to know is how the heck they are getting those numbers!! Are they sampling vaccinated people??

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@Melissa Louise, if neither of the people you are advising has any pre-existing conditions, I'd advise them to go with OxfordAstrazeneca because it's available already and it is providing good protection (albeit less good than Pfizer). A situation of having to miss a vaccine appointment due to catching COVID would not be good.

20 hours ago, melmichigan said:

I would love for someone to speak to this.  The Israel study was using data collected June 6-early July while delta was dominant, and the above study is using records from October 26, 2020-May 16, 2021.  

Potentially connected to different vaccine mix (OxfordAstrazeneca produces fewer antibodies in the first place and thus the drop-off may be more problematic for it than Pfizer. I wouldn't worry about the demonstrated Pfizer drop-off since its Week 10 figure is still higher than OxfordAstrazeneca's sweet spot antibody count... ...but Pfizer's recommending boosters be developed, so there may be an element of relaying manufacturer concerns in the hope of getting booster testing approved sooner),

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Maybe this has been covered before.  I get lost in the long threads sometimes.  But after sorting through numbers and percentages of protection,  am I way off to think that being fully vaccinated by J&J is similar protection to 1 dose of Pfizer? And vice versa? Does that question make sense? 

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An anecdotal story from my area: in our church, a family is in the midst of a covid outbreak.  Out of 3 family members who currently have it, one was fully vaccinated.  However, while the other 2 are extremely sick, one even currently hospitalized,  the man who was vaccinated had mild symptoms and is recovering quickly. 

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