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The Vaccine Thread


JennyD

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12 hours ago, Corraleno said:

The UK data in that article shows full vaccination only providing 85% efficacy against hospitalization with Delta, which is significantly lower than they were reporting before. I think the last figures I saw from the UK were 88% protection against symptomatic infection, and ~95% against hospitalization, but maybe those stats included a mix of Delta and Alpha? 85% efficacy against hospitalization seems more in line with the stats from Israel and Singapore that showed 64-69% efficacy against infection. And that's not good news, no matter how people try to spin it.

Where are you getting that number? I’m skimming, so maybe I missed something.

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On 7/16/2021 at 3:30 PM, mommyoffive said:

I’m quoting this post because I got to the PHE report from there.

Am I reading this right? From PHE report https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001358/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_18.pdf

Secondary attack rates, both in household and out of household, are now very similar on the whole for Alpha and Beta, keeping in mind that the Alpha data is from January-June and Delta is more recent. 

Table 6.

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2 minutes ago, Penelope said:

I’m quoting this post because I got to the PHE report from there.

Am I reading this right? From PHE report https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1001358/Variants_of_Concern_VOC_Technical_Briefing_18.pdf

Secondary attack rates, both in household and out of household, are now very similar on the whole for Alpha and Beta, keeping in mind that the Alpha data is from January-June and Delta is more recent. 

Table 6.

I don’t have time to read it yet, but did they look specifically at secondary attack rates in unvaccinated households? Because I would expect secondary attack rates to be way down if they were similarly contagious, since the older adults on households are likely to be vaccinated. Right now, a lot of outbreaks in UK are starting in schools and childcare and then coming home. They aren’t going to transmit much to the vaccinated people in the household. If they appear similar, that would suggest to me that Delta is much more transmissible. 

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On 7/9/2021 at 11:23 AM, Penelope said:

I think this is right, just from what I hear and read. 

We will probably have other variants. By the fall, we might not be seeing Delta anymore, it could just as well be another one with some combination of these similar mutations. 

I agree with you; I think more people will get vaccinated before the end of the year. I do think a few people were are off by the talk of boosters and when cases were down when they became eligible, they thought they might just as well wait for the first doses. There is a certain logic to that, I guess. 

I don’t how any of us here can say that when the scientists aren’t even sure.

I learn so much from this podcast, but this episode was particularly good and pertains to this discussion. https://www.microbe.tv/twiv/twiv-777/ 

The first hour is most of the content.
 

It talks about the concept of viral fitness vs transmissibility as the title says, and how the public conversation about transmissibility of variants is very muddled and inaccurate, but so much more.
There is a lot about vaccination, B and T cells, the differences between Covid and influenza vaccines and what they do, why most people should not need boosters with the current VOC (something said not only here, but many other experts), and an interesting note about flu vaccination and the debate over whether we should vaccinate children for flu only with an inactivated vaccine like FluMist, since other flu vaccines do not produce T cell responses and immune memory. (This is something I have wondered about for a long time). 
 

I plan to listen again, but other interesting points that I’ve heard before, elsewhere:

-assays for neutralization (in all the variant neutralization studies, for example) are not standardized for this virus among labs. So you can’t directly compare all the different studies you see.

-antibody assays are not standardized either. Different countries use different ones with different measurements.

-and this one is huge- we don’t have a correlate of protection for this virus the way we do for influenza. With influenza, when antibodies go below a certain level, you will get infections. We don’t know what this is for this virus, they are learning as they go. But flu vaccines don’t induce good T cell responses the way the Covid vaccines do. T cells protect from severe disease, which changes the whole picture, and they go into this a lot more.

 

Unless they changed FluMIst, it was a live vaccine, which is why no one in my family could get one- to protect my dd2 and me.

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As to messaging for getting people to take vaccines, my dh remarked that all the news stories or ads that keep showing repeated shots of people getting the vaccinations in their arms probably do not help get needle phobics in.  I mean, I saw one segment last week that must have shown about 10-12 needles being stuck in people.  Doesn't bother myself or my husband, but I can't see it helping vaccine resistance.

Then the whole CDC and whoever continuing telling us how we the vaccines we have now may not be good enough- again over and over and over again.  That can't help vaccine- resistance either.

 

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3 hours ago, TravelingChris said:

Then the whole CDC and whoever continuing telling us how we the vaccines we have now may not be good enough- again over and over and over again.  That can't help vaccine- resistance either.

 

This is my guess for why the studies from Israel and Singapore are being swept under the rug and the focus is now just on hospitalizations.  Less people will want a vaccine that isn't as effective.

I will add that I like the way some of the cruise lines are getting around the vaccine restrictions sailing out of Florida.  Good for them!  ETA: that came out wrong.  I was trying to give credit to the lines that are doing everything they can to protect passengers while following the law against vaccine passports.

Edited by melmichigan
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9 minutes ago, regentrude said:

Until the next outbreak on a cruise ship which is the perfect incubator for a highly communicable disease. That can't possibly be good for business.

I was giving them credit for finding ways to cut down on risk while not "technically" violating the ridiculous law aimed at preventing them from prohibiting non-vaccinated passengers, things like requiring insurance and testing fees, restricting areas of the ship like restaurants, casinos, and such to vaccinated passengers only, and requiring vaccines for certain ports. Things that are an attempt to limit non-vaccinated passengers and still within the letters of the law.

https://www.businessinsider.com/cruise-lines-floridas-vaccine-passport-ban-workaround-causes-unvaccinated-difficulties-2021-7

 

Edited by melmichigan
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3 minutes ago, melmichigan said:

I was giving them credit for finding ways to cut down on risk while not "technically" violating the ridiculous law aimed at preventing them from prohibiting non-vaccinated passengers, things like requiring insurance and testing fees, restricting areas of the ship like restaurants, casinos, and such to vaccinated passengers only, and requiring vaccines for certain ports. 🤷‍♀️  Things that are an attempt to limit non-vaccinated passengers and still within the letters of the law.

Gotcha. Sorry I misunderstood.

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17 hours ago, TravelingChris said:

As to messaging for getting people to take vaccines, my dh remarked that all the news stories or ads that keep showing repeated shots of people getting the vaccinations in their arms probably do not help get needle phobics in.  I mean, I saw one segment last week that must have shown about 10-12 needles being stuck in people.  Doesn't bother myself or my husband, but I can't see it helping vaccine resistance.

Then the whole CDC and whoever continuing telling us how we the vaccines we have now may not be good enough- again over and over and over again.  That can't help vaccine- resistance either.

 

I agree - more upbeat messaging would be good, about protecting the community or grandma or kids maybe... no more needles! I’m not needle phobic but even I turn away when it’s on TV.

I also think focusing on a good %vaccinated goal... whatever that would be... would be good - “Look, 80% vaccination would be great protection for grandma and the kids, and we wouldn’t need masks anymore, but we’re currently at 65.3% so mask up!”

A goal + update on where we are towards the goal would be good. Right now I don’t think people know what the goal is or how close we are to meeting it. 
“As many vaccinated as possible” is too vague.

I watch SkyNews (British) sometimes because it comes free on my TV. I like it a lot because every hour or so, something comes on the screen saying what % of the population in each area is vaccinated. It’s very matter-of-fact.

I would like to see, too, updates about new cases, hospitalizations, and deaths, comparing vaccinated to unvaccinated people, on the TV/FB ads/whatever. Many people will think it’s made up I suppose, but hopefully some would take it to heart. 

 

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17 hours ago, melmichigan said:

I was giving them credit for finding ways to cut down on risk while not "technically" violating the ridiculous law aimed at preventing them from prohibiting non-vaccinated passengers, things like requiring insurance and testing fees, restricting areas of the ship like restaurants, casinos, and such to vaccinated passengers only, and requiring vaccines for certain ports. Things that are an attempt to limit non-vaccinated passengers and still within the letters of the law.

https://www.businessinsider.com/cruise-lines-floridas-vaccine-passport-ban-workaround-causes-unvaccinated-difficulties-2021-7

 

What I also noticed is that a lot of the "vaccinated only" things are stuff that tend to be adults only or at least are preferred by adults vs families, so it seems like the experience isn't going to be altered much for anyone but unvaccinated adults without kids. I do hope there is a medical waiver available, although if you are unable to be vaccinated, I think a cruise might be a poor choice. The ports are likely to be out of the hands of the ship. I can hardly blame countries for not wanting a bunch of unvaccinated people coming in and potentially spreading different strains!

 

 

I think that adding limits is reasonable when the Governor has tied the hands of businesses. I've seen some colleges do similar things, where vaccination is not required, but there are restrictions for unvaccinated compared to vaccinated. I do think it might be easier to enforce on a ship, though. 

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18 hours ago, melmichigan said:

I was giving them credit for finding ways to cut down on risk while not "technically" violating the ridiculous law aimed at preventing them from prohibiting non-vaccinated passengers, things like requiring insurance and testing fees, restricting areas of the ship like restaurants, casinos, and such to vaccinated passengers only, and requiring vaccines for certain ports. Things that are an attempt to limit non-vaccinated passengers and still within the letters of the law.

https://www.businessinsider.com/cruise-lines-floridas-vaccine-passport-ban-workaround-causes-unvaccinated-difficulties-2021-7

 

The 11th court circuit struck down the state laws against cruise companies being forced to not follow CDC recommendations. That was brought by Norwegian Cruise Lines which was suing Florida.  I expect it to be going to US Supreme Court.

 

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1 hour ago, melmichigan said:

They are about 90% double vaccinated for ages 70+.  As the vaccination rate increases you would expect them to become a higher percentage of the hospitalized cases because 85% effective is not 100% effective.  We would need to know the ages of the people hospitalized to suss out how effective the vaccine is from those numbers, but I think the takeaway is that vaccination is helping prevent hospitalization in a significant way.  One would expect it to be even more effective against icu hospitalization and death.

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3 hours ago, melmichigan said:

That's about 2400 people double-vaccinated vs 1600 part-vaccinated. 68.5% of people are fully-vaccinated, so it's still more people who are not fully vaccinated than are... ...although I do not like that there's been a 30-percentage-point swing in a space of time where the vaccination rate only improved 2.5-percentage-points.

One thing not mentioned there is that Delta itself is mutating. Delta Plus has been verified to be in the UK, and there may be other sub-variants complicating the picture as well.

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1 hour ago, whitestavern said:

I am sure TPTB are collecting data on the breakthrough cases, specifically which vaccines the people that are hospitalized and/or dying received. Has anyone seen any information on this? 

What is TPTB?

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18 hours ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

That's about 2400 people double-vaccinated vs 1600 part-vaccinated. 68.5% of people are fully-vaccinated, so it's still more people who are not fully vaccinated than are... ...although I do not like that there's been a 30-percentage-point swing in a space of time where the vaccination rate only improved 2.5-percentage-points.
 

The numbers are reversed. Despite the link text saying the opposite (I hate it when headlines in a link are inaccurate like that!). Johnson spoke wrong yesterday and corrected himself, which is what the article is reporting. 60% are unvaccinated, despite over 90% of those most at risk being vaccinated. 

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17 minutes ago, KSera said:

The numbers are reversed. Despite the link text saying the opposite (I hate it when headlines in a link are inaccurate like that!). Johnson spoke wrong yesterday and corrected himself, which is what the article is reporting. 60% are unvaccinated, despite over 90% of those most at risk being vaccinated. 

Just saw this where someone did some rough calculations based on vaccinated percentages. It calculated out at 88-92% efficacy at preventing hospitalization (depending if you control for most being elderly)

And the underestimate calculation:

 

Edited by KSera
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1 hour ago, KSera said:

Just saw this where someone did some rough calculations based on vaccinated percentages. It calculated out at 88-92% efficacy at preventing hospitalization (depending if you control for most being elderly)

And the underestimate calculation:

 

But Mainwood is using the 1-dose vax rate and Valance is using the 2-dose vax rate. Valance is saying that 40% of infections are in people who received TWO doses, which is 67%, not 86%. So double vaccination "squished" 67% to 40% — according to Mainwood's math that's 0.67/2 = 33% efficacy. I don't think that calculation is particularly useful, but his claim of 89% efficacy is based on false numbers.

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Latest vaccine efficacy data from Scotland - currently 99 percent Delta and using Pfizer,  Moderna and AZ.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/f1a5c162-e9a4-11eb-baaa-861dba20d87a?shareToken=c0d4b3197cfbd9e79b98ec340cd45067

The first statement seems to bundle single and double jabs together, perhaps leading to lower efficacy.  The second is explicitly double jabbed 

Screenshot_20210721-224418_The Times.jpg

Edited by Laura Corin
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https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.19.452771v1.full  (pre-print, so not yet peer reviewed)

The recommendations for surveillance of vaccinated breakthrough cases is something that I'm very frustrated with.  I also don't know how the CDC would approach a second dose with J&J, and that was my original concern with the way it was marketed.  

Edited by melmichigan
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33 minutes ago, melmichigan said:

 I also don't know how the CDC would approach a second dose with J&J, and that was my original concern with the way it was marketed.  

I find it kind of suspicious that J&J has not released any data at all on their 2-dose trial, even though it ran in parallel with their 1-dose trial, so they should have plenty of data by now. I assume they are trying to figure out how to spin the results, because either outcome has a down side — either a 2nd dose significantly increases efficacy and they have to figure out how to "sell" that, since their marketing was all about being one-and-done, or a 2nd dose only slightly increases efficacy and leaves their vaccine well below mRNA rates, even with two doses, in which case their market is mostly going to be 3rd world countries who can't afford mRNA vaccines but also can't get enough of the similar but much cheaper AZ. Neither result is going to be great for their stock price. 

One of the studies I saw recently suggested that 1 dose of Moderna had better efficacy than 1 dose of either Pfizer or AZ (or presumably J&J), possibly because their dose is so much higher than Pfizer (100 vs 30 µg). If that turns out to be accurate then people who really only want 1 dose would be better off with Moderna than J&J. And then there's Novavax which will hopefully be approved in early fall, which has better efficacy than J&J, none of the storage issues of Pfizer & Moderna, and may appeal to people who are wary of the mRNA technology. 

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1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

One of the studies I saw recently suggested that 1 dose of Moderna had better efficacy than 1 dose of either Pfizer or AZ (or presumably J&J), possibly because their dose is so much higher than Pfizer (100 vs 30 µg). If that turns out to be accurate then people who really only want 1 dose would be better off with Moderna than J&J. 

I'd be interested in this study if you come across it again.

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2 hours ago, Corraleno said:

I find it kind of suspicious that J&J has not released any data at all on their 2-dose trial, even though it ran in parallel with their 1-dose trial, so they should have plenty of data by now. I assume they are trying to figure out how to spin the results, because either outcome has a down side — either a 2nd dose significantly increases efficacy and they have to figure out how to "sell" that, since their marketing was all about being one-and-done, or a 2nd dose only slightly increases efficacy and leaves their vaccine well below mRNA rates, even with two doses, in which case their market is mostly going to be 3rd world countries who can't afford mRNA vaccines but also can't get enough of the similar but much cheaper AZ. Neither result is going to be great for their stock price. 

 

I have been wondering about this, too.  The results were expected months ago! I imagine a lot of participants dropped out, but it was a huge trial -- surely they know how well their 2-dose regimen works at this point.  Your theories for the radio silence make a lot of sense.

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2 hours ago, melmichigan said:

I'd be interested in this study if you come across it again.

I finally found it, it was a Canadian study (preprint). Here is a summary of the data for 1 dose against different variants:

1 dose efficacy against infection with Alpha:
Moderna = 83%
Pfizer = 66%
AZ = 64%

1 dose efficacy against infection with Beta/Gamma:
Moderna = 77%
Pfizer = 60%
AZ = 48%

1 dose efficacy against infection with Delta:
Moderna = 72% infection
*Pfizer = 56% infection
*AZ = 67% infection

*They acknowledge that their Delta numbers are anomalous and are out of line with other studies. They had very low numbers of Delta cases and included a lot of “probables,” so the numbers for Alpha, where they had over 5,000 cases vs ~350 total for “probable” Delta, are likely more reliable. But Moderna consistently came out on top for efficacy of 1 dose.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.28.21259420v1.full.pdf

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6 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Do we know how much vaccinated people are spreading Delta? 

 

5 hours ago, melmichigan said:

It certainly is being ignored in the US.

This is important. Though, the thought of locking down again, being an island when the world around me goes on as normal... I just don't know if I can do it again. But if I could possibly kill someone, then I must. 

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8 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Do we know how much vaccinated people are spreading Delta? 

We don't know, but we know it is possible and that vaccinated people have spread it in some cases. 

We also show that breakthrough infections seem to have lower viral load, so less able to spread than unvaccinated, so there is that. 

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6 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

We don't know, but we know it is possible and that vaccinated people have spread it in some cases. 

We also show that breakthrough infections seem to have lower viral load, so less able to spread than unvaccinated, so there is that. 

Yeah, I think I knew that much. I'm just trying to think about situations like our babysitters... we've started having them come over again, and now I don't know if that's a good idea or not 😕 . 

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2 hours ago, TexasProud said:

 

This is important. Though, the thought of locking down again, being an island when the world around me goes on as normal... I just don't know if I can do it again. But if I could possibly kill someone, then I must. 

I’m back to being extremely careful again because I feel the same way. I wish we had better information. I don’t know if I’m misinterpreting things, but it just feels like political issues have gotten in the way of being able to have good, clear information since the beginning. I know, of course, that we’re learning as we go, but it seems so much harder to collect data and make it known, because of the crazy political situation with Covid.

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16 hours ago, Jaybee said:

I came to post the same thing. Really heartbreaking. I had trouble deciding which excerpt to quote, because the whole thing is worth a read:

“Dr. Brytney Cobia said Monday that all but one of her COVID patients in Alabama did not receive the vaccine. The vaccinated patient, she said, just needed a little oxygen and is expected to fully recover. Some of the others are dying.

“I’m admitting young healthy people to the hospital with very serious COVID infections,” wrote Cobia, a hospitalist at Grandview Medical Center in Birmingham, in an emotional Facebook post Sunday. “One of the last things they do before they’re intubated is beg me for the vaccine. I hold their hand and tell them that I’m sorry, but it’s too late.”

😢

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