The Vaccine Thread

[Laura Corin]

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/wimbledon-covid-vaccine-sarah-gilbert-b1874316.html Wimbledon standing ovation for Dame Sarah Gilbert.

[mommyoffive]

Pfizer and Moderna Vaccines Likely to Produce Lasting Immunity, Study Finds - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

The vaccines made by Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna set off a persistent immune reaction in the body that may protect against the coronavirus for years, scientists reported on Monday. The findings add to growing evidence that most people immunized with the mRNA vaccines may not need boosters, so long as the virus and its variants do not evolve much beyond their current forms — which is not guaranteed. People who recovered from Covid-19 before being vaccinated may not need boosters even if the virus does make a significant transformation. “It’s a good sign for how durable our immunity is from this vaccine,” said Ali Ellebedy, an immunologist at Washington University in St. Louis who led the study, which was published in the journal Nature. The study did not consider the coronavirus vaccine made by Johnson & Johnson, but Dr. Ellebedy said he expected the immune response to be less durable than that produced by mRNA vaccines.

[Penelope]

18 hours ago, Corraleno said:

It seems to suggest that the "self-adjuvanting" characteristic of the lipid particle is significantly better than the other adjuvants mentioned, because the GC B cells persist at peak levels for at least 12 weeks after the 2nd shot, instead of peaking and then quickly waning to very low levels, as occurs with other adjuvants.

I read through parts of it a few times and read another article about it. I need an immuno-translator, LOL. If it is significant maybe they will discuss on TWiV or Immune. 

But I’m not sure it can be concluding the above, or what I said before, either, because most of the other work discussed and referenced was in animals or cell cultures, as far as I can tell. Maybe there is significance in the study beyond what it says about SARS-CoV2 vaccines. 
 

I guess the good news takeaway is that vaccine-induced immunity should last a long time without need for boosters anytime soon, which parallels nicely with everything they have learned so far about persistence of immunity with T-cells, memory B-cells, antibodies following infection. 

Edited June 29, 2021 by Penelope

[Corraleno]

Major outbreak in unvaccinated teens and staff at a church camp in Illinois:

"The Illinois Department of Public Health (IDPH) is now reporting 85 teens and adult staff tested positive for COVID-19 while attending a summer youth camp in mid-June in central Illinois. One unvaccinated young adult was hospitalized. Although all campers and staff were eligible for vaccination, IDPH said it was aware of only a handful of campers and staff receiving the vaccine.

The camp was not checking vaccination status and masking was not required while indoors.

A few individuals who were at the camp also attended a nearby conference, which resulted in 11 additional cases. At least 70% of those cases were unvaccinated.

While the state's news release didn't name the camp, the Peoria Journal Star, citing county health officials, reported the outbreak at Crossing Camp in Rushville, a church camp located in Schuyler County."

https://chicago.cbslocal.com/2021/06/28/covid-19-summer-camp-illinois/

[Laura Corin]

These are the latest official figures on Covid cases (which will be mostly Delta) in Scotland, with the relevant vaccine status below.  There seems to be a correlation, but there may be behavioural aspects too - younger people going out more and perhaps taking more risks.  I don't know the percentage of the population in each group, but we are not a young society.  In the vaccine graph, the dark bars are one jab, the light bars two.

[Laura Corin]

BBC News - Covid: NHS plans booster jab for those 50 and over before winter
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57667987

[Penelope]

Report on J&J breakthrough infections in South Africa, mostly Delta and Beta variants. Press release, study pending.

https://www.samrc.ac.za/media-release/vast-majority-breakthrough-infections-vaccinated-health-workers-are-mild

Quote

Cape Town | Given the intensity of the third wave and spread of the delta variant, the Sisonke investigators would like to update health workers and the public regarding new data on the JnJ vaccine, and the pattern of breakthrough infections in our health workers vaccinated as part of the phase 3b study.  

Breakthrough infections following the JnJ vaccine are defined as a positive COVID-19 test more than 28 days following vaccination. Some people test positive on routine screening (for example when being admitted to hospital for a non-COVID-19 procedure or following exposure at work) and some following development of symptoms or contact with another person with COVID-19. We track these through daily linkages to national COVID-19 registries of laboratory and hospitalisation data and through reports to the Sisonke desk. These are then passed onto our breakthrough infection team who confirm the infection and timing, make contact with the health worker and if appropriate attending doctor, and establish the severity of the infection. Consistently we are finding that 94% of breakthrough infections are mild, 4% are moderate and only 2% severe.

Report breakthrough infections: We encourage health workers who get COVID-19 or admit a vaccinated health worker to be in touch so that we can assess severity of infection, and if severe arrange for immediate sequencing of the virus from the affected health worker. We aim to sequence all severe infections. This week sequencing shows a similar pattern of variants to that in the general population with predominance of beta and delta variants. These findings are in line with other new data suggesting that a single-dose of the JnJ vaccine protects against variants of concern including the delta variant.

Quote

New laboratory and immunogenicity (antibody) studies from the United States show that over time that immune responses induced by the JnJ vaccine mature and covers variants of concern such as the beta and delta variants. More details will be available within the next week following scientific publication. We are replicating laboratory virus neutralisation studies using serum from health workers who enrolled in our more detailed Sisonke sub-studies.

Co-principal investigator Professor Glenda Gray notes that “the single dose vaccine, designed for emergency use is safe and easy to use. We have mounting data to suggest that immunity increases over time and that it retains its efficacy against important variants such as beta and delta.”

Co-principal investigator Professor Linda-Gail Bekker adds “keeping individuals out of ICU and off ventilators is an important outcome. I’m very reassured that the vast majority of breakthrough infections in Sisonke are mild. We believe that recommending booster top-ups with another vaccine is premature. We hold in mind that South Africa has only vaccinated 3 of the 41 million people it needs to safeguard its people against severe COVID-19”.

 

[Corraleno]

1 hour ago, Penelope said:

...

 Consistently we are finding that 94% of breakthrough infections are mild, 4% are moderate and only 2% severe.

Unfortunately that article doesn't include any info about the actual rate of breakthrough infections, nor what the percentages of mild/moderate/severe cases are in the unvaccinated. E.g., if 6% of breakthrough cases are moderate to severe, compared to 30% of unvaxxed cases, that is a much greater benefit than if only 9% of unvaxxed cases are moderate to severe. It's also critical to know what percentage of vaxxed people are having breakthrough cases to begin with — if the percentage of vaxxed people with breakthrough infections is very low, then the moderate to severe cases are 6% of 15% (or whatever) vs something like 6% of 50%. Without those numbers, it's impossible to put the 94/4/2 rates in context.

[Catwoman]

6 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Unfortunately that article doesn't include any info about the actual rate of breakthrough infections, nor what the percentages of mild/moderate/severe cases are in the unvaccinated. E.g., if 6% of breakthrough cases are moderate to severe, compared to 30% of unvaxxed cases, that is a much greater benefit than if only 9% of unvaxxed cases are moderate to severe. It's also critical to know what percentage of vaxxed people are having breakthrough cases to begin with — if the percentage of vaxxed people with breakthrough infections is very low, then the moderate to severe cases are 6% of 15% (or whatever) vs something like 6% of 50%. Without those numbers, it's impossible to put the 94/4/2 rates in context.

Yes, if they know the percentages, they also know the raw numbers, so I wish they would have been more specific. In order for the numbers to mean much to us, we need to know how many people were vaccinated, and how many of those people had breakthrough infections. If the study was only 100 people and all 100 had breakthrough infections, that would be much different than if the study included 1 million people and there were 100 breakthrough infections. Details matter!

I hate these snippets of information that seem designed to encourage us, but end up making us more frustrated and confused than we already were. 

Don't get me wrong — I am still pleased to hear that the vaccine seems to be preventing the most severe cases of Covid; I would just like them to release more details about the actual number of breakthrough cases and how many people were vaccinated in total.

[Penelope]

2 hours ago, Catwoman said:

Yes, if they know the percentages, they also know the raw numbers, so I wish they would have been more specific. In order for the numbers to mean much to us, we need to know how many people were vaccinated, and how many of those people had breakthrough infections. If the study was only 100 people and all 100 had breakthrough infections, that would be much different than if the study included 1 million people and there were 100 breakthrough infections. Details matter!

I hate these snippets of information that seem designed to encourage us, but end up making us more frustrated and confused than we already were. 

Don't get me wrong — I am still pleased to hear that the vaccine seems to be preventing the most severe cases of Covid; I would just like them to release more details about the actual number of breakthrough cases and how many people were vaccinated in total.

Some published numbers will reportedly be released tomorrow, and word is that something else about J&J and Delta will be published shortly. 

[melmichigan]

The update I saw this morning showed J&J is mathematically predicted to be 55-60% effective against symptomatic disease with delta.  You can find the update and the relevant links here. 

Edited July 2, 2021 by melmichigan

[Catwoman]

I just saw this. It’s about the benefits of mixing vaccines.

https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/02/health/germany-covid-vaccines-mixing-intl/index.html

[mommyoffive]

Some Vaccinated People Are Dying of Covid-19. Here's Why Scientists Aren't Surprised. (msn.com)

[Catwoman]

20 minutes ago, melmichigan said:

The update I saw this morning showed J&J is mathematically predicted to be 55-60% effective against symptomatic disease with delta.  You can find the update and the relevant links here. 

Thanks! I have read other articles that have said J&J is anywhere between 72 and 88% effective against the Delta strain. 

It would be nice to hear more consistent information.

[Penelope]

That 60% is based on a model, not real data.

This is the discussion from the neutralization study. Since it did have a high effectiveness against the most severe outcomes with Beta and Gamma, and Delta doesn’t seem to reduce the neutralization as much as those (similar to results with other vaccines), this seems positive.

ETA in trial, 64%  symptomatic disease for S Africa (almost all cases beta), 68% Brazil (69% of cases P1). So theoretically should be slightly better numbers, or at least higher 60’s, for Delta.

Quote

As compared to the neutralizing activity in Ad26.COV2.S elicited immune sera against the B.1 virus, neutralizing activity is more strongly reduced against the Beta (B.1.351) and Gamma (P.1) variants than against the rapidly spreading Delta (B.1.617.2) variant. These results are in line with recently published studies in which sera from subjects who received the Moderna, Pfizer‐BioNTech, or Oxford‐ AstraZeneca COVID‐19 vaccines were tested for neutralizing activity against VOCs 7, 8. For all the vaccines, the reduction in neutralization titer was greater for the Beta (B.1.351) than observed for the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant.
At this point, no vaccine efficacy against the Delta variant is available although Real World Evidence studies have suggested that Pfizer‐BioNTech and Astra‐Zeneca vaccines are effective against this new variant 9. The Janssen COVID‐19 vaccine efficacy (VE) against the Delta variant of concern is currently unknown and may become available from our ongoing phase 3 trials only later this year. However, we have observed high VE against severe COVID‐19 in South Africa, with full protection against COVID‐19 related hospitalization and death 1, while >95% of cases with available sequence information were classified as the Beta (B.1.351) variant against which neutralizing activity on day 29 was more severely impacted. This strongly suggests that VE of a single dose of Ad26.COV2.S against Delta variant will be preserved as well, either because lower neutralizing antibody titers are still sufficient to protect or by the contribution of non‐neutralizing antibody functions and the strong cellular immune responses that Ad26.COV2.S elicits.

 

Edited July 2, 2021 by Penelope

[Penelope]

1 hour ago, melmichigan said:

The update I saw this morning showed J&J is mathematically predicted to be 55-60% effective against symptomatic disease with delta.  You can find the update and the relevant links here. 

I have wondered about some things this blogger writes that seem to be at odds with what others are saying, at least overstating things. She got her PhD a few years ago, and her dissertation was on bullying; her degree is in Violence and Injury epidemiology. She is very knowledgeable, but she is not an infectious disease epi., and so many specialists are publicly sharing info these days, that IMO there are better sources of info for these things, YMMV.
(We can see with someone like Eric Feigl-Ding that being an epidemiologist doesn’t mean your Covid information isn’t as inaccurate as some of the conspiracy theorists, LOL, not that this blog is anything like that). 

Anyway, she bases the 60% on a paper that was published six weeks ago and does not specifically address any variant, so maybe it’s useful, but I am not worrying about a number based on it. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01377-8

 

Edited July 2, 2021 by Penelope

[melmichigan]

4 minutes ago, Penelope said:

I have wondered about some things this blogger writes that seem to be at odds with what others are saying, at least overstating things. She got her PhD a few years ago, and her dissertation was on bullying; her degree is in Violence and Injury epidemiology. She is very knowledgeable, but she is not an infectious disease epi., and so many specialists are publicly sharing info these days, that IMO there are better sources of info for these things, YMMV.

Anyway, she bases the 60% on a paper that was published six weeks ago and does not specifically address any variant, so maybe it’s useful, but I am not worrying about a number based on it. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-021-01377-8

 

I think that there is very much a "pick and choose" amongst data points from various scientists, one only has to look at the Canadian vaccine file on Pfizer's effectiveness studies to see that in play.  I don't think we will have adequate, reliable, real world numbers for some time. 

[melmichigan]

1 hour ago, Catwoman said:

Thanks! I have read other articles that have said J&J is anywhere between 72 and 88% effective against the Delta strain. 

It would be nice to hear more consistent information.

The other problem I see most is that we are continually talking about different things.  The numbers are different when speaking of symptomatic disease versus serious disease and death.  So while 55-60% may be against all symptomatic disease, however mild, the number would then be higher when it comes to hospitalization and deaths.

 

[Penelope]

55 minutes ago, melmichigan said:

I think that there is very much a "pick and choose" amongst data points from various scientists, one only has to look at the Canadian vaccine file on Pfizer's effectiveness studies to see that in play.  I don't think we will have adequate, reliable, real world numbers for some time. 

Oh, probably. But someone with much more domain expertise knows what is relevant and when, and what to toss. Even infectious disease epidemiologists could have an issue with this when they don’t know as much about immunology and vaccines, when that isn’t their usual area of work. 

The South African Sisonke trial, where apparently the little vaccination they’ve done has been mostly (or all?) with J&J is supposed to provide some real world numbers today, we’ll see.
 

I’m curious now what the Canadian vaccine files say that might be picking and choosing. 

51 minutes ago, melmichigan said:

The other problem I see most is that we are continually talking about different things.  The numbers are different when speaking of symptomatic disease versus serious disease and death.  So while 55-60% may be against all symptomatic disease, however mild, the number would then be higher when it comes to hospitalization and deaths.

 

Yes, like how mRNA and AZ are both somewhere in the mid-90’s for the latter, despite differences in preventing symptomatic disease. J&J will likely be very high for that metric, also, but hope the info comes soon. But now that we have info for Delta with other vaccines since that model was published, I wonder about its relevancy.
 

I am not as concerned about younger people I know who got one dose (and may be at higher risk from nasty effects from a second dose of either type of vaccine), because any relative risk reduction isn’t going to be such a big problem when the absolute risk from Covid is already so low. But for the elderly or otherwise high risk person who only got one dose, I really hope we get more data soon. 
 

ETA- and I wish they would have all used exactly the same definitions for any symptomatic, moderate, severe, etc. It gets a little confusing.

Maybe that’s why I tend to think more about hospitalization, too, because it’s a harder endpoint. I hope to avoid even “moderate” illness at home, and sure, I don’t want to catch this even mildly and give it to someone else, but on the practical level, I do not care at all about a functional case of the sniffles and am not worried I will get long Covid from a very mild case while having pre-existing immunity. 

Edited July 2, 2021 by Penelope

[Penelope]

Did someone posts this yet about Moderna? Modest reductions of neutralizing antibody titer in lab compared to wild type and alpha, similar to that seen with Pfizer and J&J, but vaccine should still work. 

https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.28.449914v1

Quote

Sera from participants immunized on a prime-boost schedule with the mRNA-1273 COVID-19 vaccine were tested for neutralizing activity against several SARS-CoV-2 variants, including variants of concern (VOCs) and variants of interest (VOIs), compared to neutralization of the wild-type SARS-CoV-2 virus (designated as D614G). Results showed minimal effects on neutralization titers against the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant (1.2-fold reduction compared with D614G); other VOCs such as B.1.351 (Beta, including B.1.351-v1, B.1.351-v2, and B.1.351-v3), B.1.617.2 (Delta), and P.1 (Gamma) showed decreased neutralization titers ranging from 2.1-fold to 8.4-fold reductions compared with D614G, although all remained susceptible to mRNA-1273–elicited serum neutralization.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-06-29/moderna-s-covid-shot-produces-antibodies-against-delta-variant

[wathe]

1 hour ago, melmichigan said:

I think that there is very much a "pick and choose" amongst data points from various scientists, one only has to look at the Canadian vaccine file on Pfizer's effectiveness studies to see that in play.  I don't think we will have adequate, reliable, real world numbers for some time. 

Can you point me to this please?  Is this referring to efficacy after first dose?

Canada definitely has adopted a certain amount of make-it-up-as-we-go-along (in a calculated and well-reasoned fashion, I think) with respect to delayed first dose and miseducating dose regimens, because of poor/unreliable supply.

Edited July 2, 2021 by wathe

[Penelope]

Quote

Singapore’s government recommended that vaccinated people avoid strenuous physical activity for a week after getting the shots, as a few cases surfaced of mostly young men experiencing heart problems from receiving jabs while a teenager suffered from cardiac arrest.

The Health Ministry updated its guidance on Monday for all those seeking vaccinations, particularly adolescents and men below 30 years, to avoid strenuous exercise for week after either the first or second dose as a “further precautionary measure.” Initially, it was a 12-24 hour period for refraining from exercise and on June 11, it was extended to one week after getting the second dose.

Quote

Singaporean health officials will investigate the case of a 16-year-old student who suffered from cardiac arrest after lifting weights to determine if there was a link to his Covid-19 vaccination, the government said.

The student got his first dose of Pfizer-BioNTech/Comirnaty vaccine on June 27 without incident. Prior to his collapse on July 3, he weightlifted at the gym using very heavy weights.

“The preliminary diagnosis of his condition is an out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Clinical and laboratory tests are in progress to understand the underlying cause,” the Health Ministry said. “This will include a thorough consideration of whether there was acute severe myocarditis, which is severe inflammation of the heart muscles affecting the heart function, as a possible diagnosis.”

Singapore’s Health Science Authority disclosed it received reports of heart problems experienced by 12 people after their vaccinations as of June 30. Seven of the cases involved males 30 years and below, which the government said was higher-than-expected for this age group.

About 61% of the Singapore’s population have received the first vaccine jab, according to July 3 data compiled by Bloomberg, while 37.6% are fully inoculated. The government has made high vaccination rates a key condition for reopening the economy safely, including the resumption of leisure travel.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-05/singapore-investigates-cardiac-arrest-of-vaccinated-teenager

[melmichigan]

On 7/2/2021 at 2:53 PM, wathe said:

Can you point me to this please?  Is this referring to efficacy after first dose?

Canada definitely has adopted a certain amount of make-it-up-as-we-go-along (in a calculated and well-reasoned fashion, I think) with respect to delayed first dose and miseducating dose regimens, because of poor/unreliable supply.

 It was posted here on the board when Canada approved the Pfizer vaccine and included a list of studies/trials on the vaccine.

[KSera]

Study of 1/4 dose of Moderna vaccine (25ug rather than 100). Looks promising (which is on surprising, given the Pfizer uses 30)  

 

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.06.30.21259787v1

[Laura Corin]

86.6 percent of adults in Scotland have had at least one jab. 62.4 have had two. The UK is not using J and J. The youngest adults can book, but not all have had their first appointment and there doesn't seem to be a plateau in demand yet. Vaccination has not been opened to children  - vaccine supplies are being reserved for adults.

[JennyD]

Terrific -- if long -- overview of current vaccine study results.

[popmom]

 

Quote

 

My husband had J&J back in April. He would like to boost that with the Pfizer. Has anyone done this? Or heard whether its even allowed? I'm wondering if our insurance would reject it. 

In light of the article about Germany shared above....if one does follow up the AZ or J&J with a mRNA vaccine, would one just get one dose or two?

[wathe]

3 hours ago, popmom said:

 

My husband had J&J back in April. He would like to boost that with the Pfizer. Has anyone done this? Or heard whether its even allowed? I'm wondering if our insurance would reject it. 

In light of the article about Germany shared above....if one does follow up the AZ or J&J with a mRNA vaccine, would one just get one dose or two?

The protocol here (Canada) in my province AZ first dose is  followed by mRNA single dose only at 8 weeks.  If, down the line, data suggest that a second mRNA dose is required, then the protocol will likely be adjusted, but so far the plan is for a single mRNA dose only.  

[Sdel]

I have to say….until they work out the myocarditis thing the vaccine is a hard no here for both me and my DD.  I have two male cousins who have had heart transplants due to myocarditis.  One is a second cousin who had a transplant when I was a teen, the other is my direct cousin who received his transplant around the same age as our second cousin was when he had his.

[KSera]

3 hours ago, popmom said:

 

My husband had J&J back in April. He would like to boost that with the Pfizer. Has anyone done this? Or heard whether its even allowed? I'm wondering if our insurance would reject it. 

In light of the article about Germany shared above....if one does follow up the AZ or J&J with a mRNA vaccine, would one just get one dose or two?

I’ve heard some people have managed to have it done, but others have been told no because it’s not CDC recommended yet. Hopefully they will remedy that, because we have enough vaccine and it’s looking like a good idea. (I wouldn’t expect insurance to come into it, since the shots are free and you don’t have to provide insurance information if you don’t want to.)

[Roadrunner]

14 minutes ago, Sdel said:

I have to say….until they work out the myocarditis thing the vaccine is a hard no here for both me and my DD.  I have two male cousins who have had heart transplants due to myocarditis.  One is a second cousin who had a transplant when I was a teen, the other is my direct cousin who received his transplant around the same age as our second cousin was when he had his.

In your case, I would wait for Novavax. 

[Penelope]

There was one myocarditis case in the Novavax trial. Could be coincidental, or maybe not. 

Seems like the largest risk with mRNA is for males under 30 or 40. Not as much for females and not at all for females over 30, so far. Young men could take J&J, women mRNA if wanting to avoid known side effects? I guess I’d be pretty nervous with that family history, too, though.

Edited July 7, 2021 by Penelope

[melmichigan]

Many news outlets are reporting the same thing from Israel with regards to Pfizer, although I haven’t seen the actual studies so again a grain of salt. 
 

“The vaccine protected 64% of inoculated people from infection during an outbreak of the Delta variant, down from 94% before, according to Israel’s Health Ministry. It was 94% effective at preventing severe illness in the same period, compared with 97% before, the ministry said….”

”During the period that coincided with the Delta outbreak, 1,271 of 1,528 total new infections were fully vaccinated individuals, as were 23 of 37 hospitalizations and 11 of 17 cases of severe illness, the ministry said.”

Here is that article for reference. You can find the same information under various news outlets worldwide. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-is-less-effective-against-delta-variant-israeli-data-show-11625572796

 

Edited July 7, 2021 by melmichigan

[whitestavern]

1 hour ago, melmichigan said:

Many news outlets are reporting the same thing from Israel with regards to Pfizer, although I haven’t seen the actual studies so again a grain of salt. 
 

“The vaccine protected 64% of inoculated people from infection during an outbreak of the Delta variant, down from 94% before, according to Israel’s Health Ministry. It was 94% effective at preventing severe illness in the same period, compared with 97% before, the ministry said….”

”During the period that coincided with the Delta outbreak, 1,271 of 1,528 total new infections were fully vaccinated individuals, as were 23 of 37 hospitalizations and 11 of 17 cases of severe illness, the ministry said.”

Here is that article for reference. You can find the same information under various news outlets worldwide. https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.wsj.com/amp/articles/pfizers-covid-19-vaccine-is-less-effective-against-delta-variant-israeli-data-show-11625572796

 

It looks like vaccinated people are worse off than unvaccinated people with regards to Delta. What am I missing? (I feel like it's very obvious but I can't see it, lol)

[Laura Corin]

1 minute ago, whitestavern said:

It looks like vaccinated people are worse off than unvaccinated people with regards to Delta. What am I missing? (I feel like it's very obvious but I can't see it, lol)

If it were the UK it would be that the very vulnerable were more likely to have been vaccinated and also more likely to be badly affected despite the vaccine.

[whitestavern]

7 minutes ago, Laura Corin said:

If it were the UK it would be that the very vulnerable were more likely to have been vaccinated and also more likely to be badly affected despite the vaccine.

That makes sense. It's scary though. Part of me feels like I should tell my mother to continue wearing a mask (she's relatively healthy but is a lung cancer survivor) but she was literally petrified of Covid for 12 months (and very depressed) and is finally going out and doing things again. I don't want to scare her back into quarantining at home. 

[Syllieann]

1 hour ago, whitestavern said:

It looks like vaccinated people are worse off than unvaccinated people with regards to Delta. What am I missing? (I feel like it's very obvious but I can't see it, lol)

When the vax rate is high, let's say 90%, you would expect a 9:1 ratio of vax to unvax to fall ill if the vax made no difference.  If instead it was a 2:1 ratio, the vaccine would have prevented infection in the 7 vax'd people who would have fallen ill if they had didn't work.I

I think UK is over 90% for their seniors.  They are probably aggregating data by age cohorts.

Edited July 7, 2021 by Syllieann

[JennyD]

23 hours ago, popmom said:

 

My husband had J&J back in April. He would like to boost that with the Pfizer. Has anyone done this? Or heard whether its even allowed? I'm wondering if our insurance would reject it. 

In light of the article about Germany shared above....if one does follow up the AZ or J&J with a mRNA vaccine, would one just get one dose or two?

I have a relative who was in the vaccine group of the JnJ trial and has since gotten a mRNA vaccine.  He is planning to get the second one as well.  One dose probably would have been (more than) enough, but he had previously gotten two different antibody tests, neither of which showed him having any antibodies, so he had long been ever-so-slightly worried that perhaps there had been a mistake in the trial and he had actually been in the placebo group after all.

I believe he just walked into CVS and got the vaccine.  I don't know what happened with his insurance.

[JennyD]

I've been following the news out of Israel and that 64% efficacy number seems pretty iffy.  The Ministry of Health was responding to a leak and a number of scientists have since criticized the way the MOH calculated the number.  Here one thread  with some (somewhat disorganized) discussion in English.

Cases are definitely going up, though.  

[mommyoffive]

Pfizer to Request FDA Authorization for Covid Vaccine Booster Shot in August - Bloomberg

[whitestavern]

52 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

Pfizer to Request FDA Authorization for Covid Vaccine Booster Shot in August - Bloomberg

I can't read this. Is this EUA or full approval? How does it work for boosters? 

[Corraleno]

10 minutes ago, whitestavern said:

I can't read this. Is this EUA or full approval? How does it work for boosters? 

EUA. I think you can probably read this article without a subscription. Excerpt:

"Pfizer Inc. plans to request U.S. emergency authorization in August for a third booster dose of its COVID-19 vaccine, based on early data showing that it can sharply increase immune protection against the coronavirus.

The company has received initial data from an early human study showing that a third dose of its existing coronavirus vaccine is safe and can raise neutralizing antibody levels by 5 to 10 fold compared with the original vaccine, Pfizer research head Mikael Dolsten said in an interview.

Once more data is in hand, Pfizer plans to ask the FDA to authorize a booster shot that could be given six to eight months after the original two doses, Dolsten said. The drugmaker is also talking with regulators in other countries and the European Union about the new results, he said. Pfizer produces the vaccine in partnership with BioNTech SE.

Dolsten said the company is going public with its plans because the early data looks convincing and because of increasing concern about mutations of the virus, including the ultra-transmissible Delta variant that is spreading in numerous countries.

“There is a lot of fear and concern” about variants, Dolsten said. “We are confident that such a boost will be highly effective against the Delta variant.”

While the antibody results are based on a small initial cohort of roughly 10 to 20 people who received the booster, Dolsten said that the “the data set is so clear we have complete confidence that the full study will reproduce this.”

 

[Corraleno]

I'm going to take a wild guess that the real reason Pfizer dropped this press release a month before they actually plan to apply for the EUA is concern over their stock price in light of the Israeli report of lower efficacy against Delta.

[Not_a_Number]

15 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

EUA. I think you can probably read this article without a subscription. Excerpt:

"Pfizer Inc. plans to request U.S. emergency authorization in August for a third booster dose of its COVID-19 vaccine, based on early data showing that it can sharply increase immune protection against the coronavirus.

The company has received initial data from an early human study showing that a third dose of its existing coronavirus vaccine is safe and can raise neutralizing antibody levels by 5 to 10 fold compared with the original vaccine, Pfizer research head Mikael Dolsten said in an interview.

Once more data is in hand, Pfizer plans to ask the FDA to authorize a booster shot that could be given six to eight months after the original two doses, Dolsten said. The drugmaker is also talking with regulators in other countries and the European Union about the new results, he said. Pfizer produces the vaccine in partnership with BioNTech SE.

Dolsten said the company is going public with its plans because the early data looks convincing and because of increasing concern about mutations of the virus, including the ultra-transmissible Delta variant that is spreading in numerous countries.

“There is a lot of fear and concern” about variants, Dolsten said. “We are confident that such a boost will be highly effective against the Delta variant.”

While the antibody results are based on a small initial cohort of roughly 10 to 20 people who received the booster, Dolsten said that the “the data set is so clear we have complete confidence that the full study will reproduce this.”

Gah. I'm glad they are finding that a booster is helpful, but I'm really not looking forward to more vaccine side effects 😕. I had that stupid headache for something like 2 weeks, and I swear I now occasionally get mild headaches that are weirdly reminiscent of it, which I never did before. (This one I'm not sure about, though -- it could totally be trying to fit unrelated phenomena together. But the 2 weeks I'm absolutely sure about.) 

 

 

[Kakids]

Does anyone know, has the FDA decided if they are going to consider anymore EUA’s related to covid? I know they were discussing last month whether to start requiring full approvals, but I haven’t been able to find any outcomes from their discussions.

[KSera]

1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

I'm going to take a wild guess that the real reason Pfizer dropped this press release a month before they actually plan to apply for the EUA is concern over their stock price in light of the Israeli report of lower efficacy against Delta.

I’m with you. While I think the Pfizer vaccine itself is amazing, I haven’t felt a lot of trust in announcements from the business side about the need for boosters. The timing of these announcements has been fishy both times. I’d like to see some independent studies showing that first. It’s interesting that Pfizer’s own studies are much more pessimistic on how long immunity from their shot is lasting then most of the rest of the scientific community.

[Penelope]

CDC and FDA put out a joint statement this evening that says boosters are not needed.

[Corraleno]

From the actual statement:

“Americans who have been fully vaccinated do not need a booster shot at this time. 

FDA, CDC and NIH are engaged in a science-based, rigorous process to consider whether or when a booster might be necessary.”

"We are prepared for booster doses if and when the science demonstrates that they are needed."

[Penelope]

Of course they mean not right now. How could they say boosters will never be needed? The statement is careful, but clearly  they put it out because the drug companies and the media are jumping the gun and freaking everyone out. 
 

The whole thing is unfortunate, as with so much about Covid info. There isn’t any evidence at this time that any of us will need another vaccination in the fall, and people that know do say that, and it is reported somewhat, but the big scare gets a lot of attention. 

Edited July 9, 2021 by Penelope

[Corraleno]

I think this is going to be one of those statements along the lines of "there's no evidence for aerosol transmission, so masks are unnecessary" or "there's no evidence that Delta is actually more transmissible or more likely to affect children." I think the CDC is afraid that if people think boosters may be necessary it will further suppress vaccination rates, because more people will just decide it's not worth it if you need another shot (especially one with unpleasant side effects) every 6-8 months. But I suspect that we're going to see big spikes this fall when schools and colleges reopen, with much higher breakthrough rates with Delta than we're used to with previous variants, and then suddenly boosters will be a thing after all.