The Vaccine Thread

[Penelope]

Some studies on reinfection. Probably they all have issues of one kind or another, but so do the post-vaccination studies. Overall it looks pretty good.

Austria, about 90%, “comparable with the highest available estimates of vaccine efficacies”

England, 84% at median of 7 months, “minimum probable effect” because they excluded seroconversions

Qatar, 95% protective, reinfections less severe than initial, most reinfections found incidentally through screening and contact tracing, up to seven months

England, zero symptomatic reinfections in 1,000 health care workers

Israel, reinfection rate 0.1% up to 10 months in ~150,000 health care workers, 2.6% hospitalized after second positive PCR. One death but not clear with first or second positive test

 

Some studies of immunity in previously infected

Variants have negligible effects on T cell reactivity

Robust T cell immunity six months after infection

Neutralizing antibodies measured 5-7 months after infection

Neutralizing antibodies correlate with virus-specific T cells in those recently infected

SARS-CoV-2 infection induces long-lived bone marrow plasma cells in humans

Durable immunity in multiple branches of immune system, at levels that are predictive of long-term memory (years) and promising of protection from severe disease for “substantial time” according to author

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Edited June 12, 2021 by Penelope

[Penelope]

Singapore sees just a few cases of myocarditis after second dose mRNA and recommends limiting strenuous activity for young men and teens for one week after the second dose. 
https://www.thestar.com.my/aseanplus/aseanplus-news/2021/06/12/singapore-reports-four-cases-of-heart-inflammation-after-second-jab-of-mrna-covid-19-vaccines

[Pen]

6 hours ago, Penelope said:

Thanks for clarifying. 

Those articles don’t show any evidence for reinfection in Brazil. Those numbers are a guesstimate based on the same antibody study from Manaus that we’ve been talking about here. They take the high seroprevalence and then assume that because it was so high, some must have been reinfections. But it seems just as likely that that was a faulty assumption.

Good evidence for reinfection due a particular variant would have to take a population with documented infection and show how many had documented reinfection, hopefully with some amount of sequencing involved. I don’t think that evidence exists.

And sure, they had a few thousand in vaccine trials in 2020, but so did the US and the UK and others. We still don’t think of these countries as having had vaccination available when surges began, since those are very tiny numbers. 
 

I think there are other papers looking at reinfections than those you have there. Reinfections happen and are expected  to happen, just as post-vaccine infections will also occur, but they seem to be infrequent and largely less severe in either case. Not to say that we haven’t or couldn’t see more immune evasion with a variant, but vaccination and previous infection both seem to be about equally good thus far. 

you should also look at PCR cycle rates if PCR is used to diagnose an “infection” - and if comparing “infection” rates in vaccinated persons cf. compared with  in unvaccinated people, make sure the comparisons are using the same cycle threshold.  Whether or not PCR is used you should check to make sure the same criteria to determine what counts as “infection” is used 
 

Edited June 12, 2021 by Pen

[ieta_cassiopeia]

14 hours ago, Penelope said:

Thanks for clarifying. 

Those articles don’t show any evidence for reinfection in Brazil. Those numbers are a guesstimate based on the same antibody study from Manaus that we’ve been talking about here. They take the high seroprevalence and then assume that because it was so high, some must have been reinfections. But it seems just as likely that that was a faulty assumption.

Good evidence for reinfection due a particular variant would have to take a population with documented infection and show how many had documented reinfection, hopefully with some amount of sequencing involved. I don’t think that evidence exists.

And sure, they had a few thousand in vaccine trials in 2020, but so did the US and the UK and others. We still don’t think of these countries as having had vaccination available when surges began, since those are very tiny numbers. 
 

I think there are other papers looking at reinfections than those you have there. Reinfections happen and are expected  to happen, just as post-vaccine infections will also occur, but they seem to be infrequent and largely less severe in either case. Not to say that we haven’t or couldn’t see more immune evasion with a variant, but vaccination and previous infection both seem to be about equally good thus far. 

They took the high seroprevalence and worked out it was mathematically impossible for there not to have been reinfection, and that unless the sample was deliberately selected to find people who'd been infected twice at the time of the study... So no, that assumption cannot be faulty - the faults are more likely to be in the mathematical model used to figure out how much of it was happening (which is why the range is so large). Bear in mind that this is also the model used for assessing it in other studies such as this one among the US Marine Corps recruits (which indicates 80% protection from infection in that population at 1-12 months from previous infection, assuming detectable amounts of antibodies from the original infection).

 

Due to common advice to not go to places that would have involved tests before testing becoming widely available, that severely limits which parts of the world would be able to provide the standard of evidence you want (I think only south-east Asia had decent asymptomatic test regimes for the first wave, and most of that didn't and doesn't involve genetic sequencing, which cannot be reliably done with lateral flow testing because it doesn't deliberately retain the virus if found. As Pen said, even PCR testing has some complications). For the rest of the world, if serological evidence is to be ignored, anecdontal reports are the only remaining path to collecting evidence. Since by this point I know several people who have had COVID two and even three times (the former category is perhaps 20% of the people I know, in a place that has made efforts to stop the virus), I can't dismiss it as a rare event the way I've seen some try to do, (Most of them didn't go to hospital any of the times they got it, but two people died as a result of their second infection).

We have seen partial immune escape with the Delta and P.1 variants, certainly in the UK. That's why the UK's so concerned with those variants. (They've proven far less apt to vaccine-based immunity than initially feared, though).

[Laura Corin]

The UK is trying to accelerate vaccination in the face of the Delta variant. My 24yo daughter  is now in the cohort for vaccination and has an appointment for her first jab next week. My 21yo son will apparently be able to sign in to get an appointment later in the week. This is the current situation in Scotland.

Eta both my children have first jabs booked for next week now. My son said the sign-up sites were very popular  - like for concert tickets, he said. Lots of availability in the end, but a 50-minute bus ride away.

Edited June 16, 2021 by Laura Corin

[Penelope]

On 6/13/2021 at 4:26 AM, ieta_cassiopeia said:

They took the high seroprevalence and worked out it was mathematically impossible for there not to have been reinfection, and that unless the sample was deliberately selected to find people who'd been infected twice at the time of the study... So no, that assumption cannot be faulty - the faults are more likely to be in the mathematical model used to figure out how much of it was happening (which is why the range is so large). Bear in mind that this is also the model used for assessing it in other studies such as this one among the US Marine Corps recruits (which indicates 80% protection from infection in that population at 1-12 months from previous infection, assuming detectable amounts of antibodies from the original infection).

 

Maybe we are talking past each other? I am saying that the initial high seroprevalence might have been faulty. A lot of people seem to think there was something up with that. The already biased blood donor sample came up with 44% previously infected. They got the 76% from making a lot of assumptions and adjustments from there. 
 

If the 76% were flawed, than any analysis based on that will necessarily be flawed as well. 
 

Anyway, the number of reinfections says nothing about the number of severe reinfections. It seems to me that the problem is ultimately not with reinfections; getting periodically reinfected with some viruses is the norm. When we can quickly fight them off and have mild symptoms or no symptoms, it’s not a problem, except for the extremely frail among us who can die from even a common cold virus. The problem in Manaus was supposed to be an overwhelm of the medical system. Maybe there were significant reinfections, but did those reinfections end up in the hospitals? The situation is one unknown after another, from my perspective.

I’m not aware of any other place that had 45% infected in their first wave, much less 75%. There were definitely isolated (usually poor and crowded) areas that did (parts of Mumbai, Queens) but an entire city as a whole, haven’t heard that. Of course data on serology is so incomplete that maybe we can’t say for sure, but we haven’t seen anything like 75% before the fall anywhere else in the world, to my knowledge.

 

[Corraleno]

The linked article discusses the case of Serrana, a town in Brazil with a population of around 45K, where they managed to vaccinate 96% of the adult population in 8 weeks, with dramatic results: an 80% drop in symptomatic cases, 86% drop in covid hospitalizations, and a 95% drop in deaths. With less virus circulating, cases and hospitalizations also dropped among children, even though they were not vaccinated. This is in sharp contrast to neighboring cities, where infection rates are still out of control. Two weeks after the last group got their second shot, there were only 2 cases among vaccinated people and no deaths. And this was using a Chinese vaccine (SinoVac aka CoronaVac) that did not do well in trials (~50% efficacy) against the Brazilian/P1/Gamma variant. The researchers plan to continue to follow the population of Serrana for the next year, but preliminary results suggest that herd immunity is possible, even with a less-than-ideal vaccine, if vaccination rates are high enough. 

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/06/brazilian-town-experiment-shows-mass-vaccination-can-wipe-out-covid-19?

[KSera]

4 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

The linked article discusses the case of Serrana, a town in Brazil with a population of around 45K, where they managed to vaccinate 96% of the adult population in 8 weeks, with dramatic results: an 80% drop in symptomatic cases, 86% drop in covid hospitalizations, and a 95% drop in deaths. With less virus circulating, cases and hospitalizations also dropped among children, even though they were not vaccinated. This is in sharp contrast to neighboring cities, where infection rates are still out of control.

This is both so encouraging and so sad. It shows we have the ability to essentially end this thing, and especially to drop deaths to extremely rare events. However, it's also makes me sad that we have this ability and so many are not taking it/are preventing this from happening. Even more so when there are people in other countries who don't have access to vaccines but would dearly like to.

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, KSera said:

This is both so encouraging and so sad. It shows we have the ability to essentially end this thing, and especially to drop deaths to extremely rare events. However, it's also makes me sad that we have this ability and so many are not taking it/are preventing this from happening. Even more so when there are people in other countries who don't have access to vaccines but would dearly like to.

Seriously. We can stop this disease, but so many are making choices that mean we will not. 

It's infuriating. I'm tired of being graded as a group. 

[Corraleno]

NY state hit the milestone required to remove most covid restrictions — 70% with at least one shot. Federal guidelines for schools, healthcare, and mass transit remain, but all other restrictions are removed immediately, and Cuomo announced there will be fireworks tonight to celebrate. Here's one link, but it's all over the news, so you can basically choose your favorite source:

https://abc7ny.com/health/ny-lifts-covid-restrictions-across-commercial-social-settings/10792105/

[Ausmumof3]

Australia has raised recommended age for Astra Zeneca to 60 after the death of a 52 year old woman from blood clots 

[ieta_cassiopeia]

On 6/15/2021 at 7:02 PM, Penelope said:

Maybe we are talking past each other? I am saying that the initial high seroprevalence might have been faulty. A lot of people seem to think there was something up with that. The already biased blood donor sample came up with 44% previously infected. They got the 76% from making a lot of assumptions and adjustments from there. 
 

If the 76% were flawed, than any analysis based on that will necessarily be flawed as well. 
 

Anyway, the number of reinfections says nothing about the number of severe reinfections. It seems to me that the problem is ultimately not with reinfections; getting periodically reinfected with some viruses is the norm. When we can quickly fight them off and have mild symptoms or no symptoms, it’s not a problem, except for the extremely frail among us who can die from even a common cold virus. The problem in Manaus was supposed to be an overwhelm of the medical system. Maybe there were significant reinfections, but did those reinfections end up in the hospitals? The situation is one unknown after another, from my perspective.

I’m not aware of any other place that had 45% infected in their first wave, much less 75%. There were definitely isolated (usually poor and crowded) areas that did (parts of Mumbai, Queens) but an entire city as a whole, haven’t heard that. Of course data on serology is so incomplete that maybe we can’t say for sure, but we haven’t seen anything like 75% before the fall anywhere else in the world, to my knowledge.

 

In Manaus, we don't know where the reinfections ended up, because most people in the first wave didn't get tested (even if they went to hospital). Much like the UK at its overwhelm phase, they had to go with "if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck..." assessment. That's why the serological testing is the only alternative to anecdontal evidence available in most parts of the world.

Also, Manaus is very crowded, has lots of districts in severe poverty and unlike Queens and Mumbai, had a government that at that time was refusing to put in any meaningful protections against the virus. Obviously Queens and Mumbai had multiple reasons for not being able to fully implement said protections, but at least they weren't been told by officialdom to carry on as usual and that masks were for [slur]s. These point to high infection and re-infection rate.

(I'm also going to add that the range I saw in the research was 25%-61%. There's no scope for a 76% in there, so I've no idea where Penelope is getting that figure from.)

In the UK, everyone 18 and over will be able to book a 1st vaccine appointment by the end of this week, with the hope that every adults who wants a vaccine will have had their first dose by the point, in 4 weeks' time, when social distancing limits are removed.

Edited June 17, 2021 by ieta_cassiopeia

[Laura Corin]

2 minutes ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

 

In the UK, everyone 18 and over will be able to book a 1st vaccine appointment by the end of this week, with the hope that every adults who wants a vaccine will have had their first dose by the point, in 4 weeks' time, when social distancing limits are removed.

My 21 year old and 25 year old children have booked appointments for next week. Their second jabs are still 12 weeks thereafter. The English government has only shortened the period for the over forties. I assume that Pfizer/Moderna deliveries are the issue.

[Wheres Toto]

My kids are getting their first dose next week at a local walk-in site.   It's where dh and I both got ours but it's closing down in July so we'll probably have to get the second dose somewhere else.  We were going to go this week but we are going down to visit MIL this weekend and I didn't want to bring them away from home in case they had a tough reaction.  

Right now we had around 250 cases and 7 deaths in the whole state, pretty much among a few counties.   Up by me the vaccination rate is around 60 percent.  It looks like some South Jersey counties are around 20%.   

Most of our restrictions have been lifted but youth camps and schools are still requiring masks so I'll still have to require them at my job, which is fine with me.    At this point I assume they are going to keep the school requirements until the younger kids can get vaccinated.   Which should take long enough for us to see if we get another surge in the Fall.

[Kanin]

3 hours ago, Wheres Toto said:

At this point I assume they are going to keep the school requirements until the younger kids can get vaccinated.   Which should take long enough for us to see if we get another surge in the Fall.

I'm wondering about this, too. I thought they surely would, but a teacher friend of mine said the rates may be low enough to not require masks....? And Maine lifted its state of emergency, so I'm not sure what that means. 

[Wheres Toto]

39 minutes ago, Kanin said:

I'm wondering about this, too. I thought they surely would, but a teacher friend of mine said the rates may be low enough to not require masks....? And Maine lifted its state of emergency, so I'm not sure what that means. 

Last time I saw Murphy talk he said something about vaccine eligibility.  I know there are more exceptions for activities in the heat for schools without ac, but I haven't seen anything tied to case or vaccination rates.

I've been keeping fairly close track since it's relevant to my business, but I don't have access to some of the sources schools may have available.  

[Laura Corin]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/17/previous-covid-infection-may-not-offer-long-term-protection-study-finds?CMP=Share_AndroidApp_Other

[KSera]

For people who have been worried the vaccine would somehow affect male fertility, this study shows no impact on sperm parameters after vaccination (they actually improved to a statistically significant degree, but they expect that's due to other factors):

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2781360

On the other hand, there has been significant concern about the effect of actual SARS-CoV2 infection on male fertility. It appears there are a lot of papers about it, but I'm not sure there is a definitive answer yet.

 

[Penelope]

On 6/17/2021 at 5:43 AM, ieta_cassiopeia said:

In Manaus, we don't know where the reinfections ended up, because most people in the first wave didn't get tested (even if they went to hospital). Much like the UK at its overwhelm phase, they had to go with "if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck..." assessment. That's why the serological testing is the only alternative to anecdontal evidence available in most parts of the world.

Also, Manaus is very crowded, has lots of districts in severe poverty and unlike Queens and Mumbai, had a government that at that time was refusing to put in any meaningful protections against the virus. Obviously Queens and Mumbai had multiple reasons for not being able to fully implement said protections, but at least they weren't been told by officialdom to carry on as usual and that masks were for [slur]s. These point to high infection and re-infection rate.

(I'm also going to add that the range I saw in the research was 25%-61%. There's no scope for a 76% in there, so I've no idea where Penelope is getting that figure from.)

In the UK, everyone 18 and over will be able to book a 1st vaccine appointment by the end of this week, with the hope that every adults who wants a vaccine will have had their first dose by the point, in 4 weeks' time, when social distancing limits are removed.

Yes, I think from the bolded that we are not having the same conversation. I am not sure what you are talking about in your first paragraph. 

The amount of crowding doesn’t necessarily have anything to do with reinfections.

Again, the 76% is the initial estimate of infection from the “first wave” in Brazil. The initial paper was from another journal, but it is also mentioned in this journal article, and others, which was linked upthread, along with critique of this figure, and another study that showed only 14% previous infection. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)00183-5/fulltext

The article you linked from The Guardian, and the numbers you quote from it, as far as I understand since it is media and not a research paper, are based on mathematical probabilities for what reinfection would have to be if there were 76% already infected. That is all it is based on, as far as I can tell which means if the 76% is wrong, then so is the 25-61%. 

ETA I won’t post on this again, so everybody else won’t have to keep scrolling over this back and forth on Manaus, which is probably a moot point anyway in June 2021. 🙂Whether we’ll ever get better data out of Brazil or about P1 is an open question.
 

 

Edited June 18, 2021 by Penelope

[wathe]

Here's some new vaccine fun:

New York is declining to recognize those who've had a full course of AstraZeneca covid vaccine as vaccinated, and denying entry to venues based on that.  We'll see how this evolves.  There are huge implications for international travel (not to mention millions of angry Canadians - the USA sent us that much of that AZ after all)

"David Screech had already selected his seats and put in his credit card information for Springsteen on Broadway tickets when he noticed the COVID-19 vaccine requirements: his two doses of AstraZeneca-Oxford wouldn't be enough for admission.

Screech, the mayor of View Royal, B.C., and a Springsteen fan of 40 years, received his second AstraZeneca dose last week, but the Jujamcyn Theaters' website said it would only allow guests "fully vaccinated with an FDA-approved vaccine" — Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna or Johnson & Johnson."

"Live tapings of TV shows including Saturday Night Live and The Late Show with Stephen Colbert also snub AstraZeneca doses in rules listed on their websites, which say they're acting "at the direction of New York state."

 

[Penelope]

That’s ridiculous.

[wathe]

6 minutes ago, Penelope said:

That’s ridiculous.

Yes.  Especially since AZ efficacy is as least as good as J&J.

[wathe]

Our Prime Minister had AZ.  I'm hopeful that it will get sorted out sooner rather than later. It's a big, huge deal.

[Pen]

8 minutes ago, wathe said:

Here's some new vaccine fun:

New York is declining to recognize those who've had a full course of AstraZeneca covid vaccine as vaccinated, and denying entry to venues based on that.  We'll see how this evolves.  There are huge implications for international travel (not to mention millions of angry Canadians - the USA sent us that much of that AZ after all)

"David Screech had already selected his seats and put in his credit card information for Springsteen on Broadway tickets when he noticed the COVID-19 vaccine requirements: his two doses of AstraZeneca-Oxford wouldn't be enough for admission.

Screech, the mayor of View Royal, B.C., and a Springsteen fan of 40 years, received his second AstraZeneca dose last week, but the Jujamcyn Theaters' website said it would only allow guests "fully vaccinated with an FDA-approved vaccine" — Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna or Johnson & Johnson."

 

since no vaccine is actually FDA-approved  they really should have a completely empty hall, I guess 

 

8 minutes ago, wathe said:

 

 

"Live tapings of TV shows including Saturday Night Live and The Late Show with Stephen Colbert also snub AstraZeneca doses in rules listed on their websites, which say they're acting "at the direction of New York state."

 

 

bad faith in many shapes and forms seems abundant 

Imo there are worse things than not getting to see a Broadway show though.

some people had the NY nursing home tragedies to cope with 

Many people are struggling with work, school, housing...

our area as a farming area is struggling now - i 

 Children may be becoming guinea pigs

 

i can’t say I feel especially sad about some public figure and his inability to see a Broadway show  — but maybe that will get more public compassion, than things I consider far far worse 

“vaccine fun” seems an apt phrase perhaps for the mayor’s problems in the scheme of things

 

 

 

 

 

[wathe]

13 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

since no vaccine is actually FDA-approved  they really should have a completely empty hall, I guess 

 

 

bad faith in many shapes and forms seems abundant 

Imo there are worse things than not getting to see a Broadway show though.

some people had the NY nursing home tragedies to cope with 

Many people are struggling with work, school, housing...

our area as a farming area is struggling now - i 

 Children may be becoming guinea pigs

 

i can’t say I feel especially sad about some public figure and his inability to see a Broadway show  — but maybe that will get more public compassion, than things I consider far far worse 

“vaccine fun” seems an apt phrase perhaps for the mayor’s problems in the scheme of things

 

Good catch re: approved.  They should have used 'authorized".

It's not really about getting to see a show.  It's about the  use of FDA authorization as a proxy for efficacy, and limiting the movements of people based on this.  There are huge implications for travel, business, cross-border work, tourism economy, etc.

Edited June 18, 2021 by wathe

[Penelope]

14 minutes ago, wathe said:

Yes.  Especially since AZ efficacy is as least as good as J&J.

I’m pretty sure that CDC says you don’t have to get revaccinated here if you are fully vaccinated with a WHO-approved vaccines. So NY State is out of bounds here.

[KSera]

35 minutes ago, wathe said:

Here's some new vaccine fun:

New York is declining to recognize those who've had a full course of AstraZeneca covid vaccine as vaccinated, and denying entry to venues based on that.  We'll see how this evolves.  There are huge implications for international travel (not to mention millions of angry Canadians - the USA sent us that much of that AZ after all)

"David Screech had already selected his seats and put in his credit card information for Springsteen on Broadway tickets when he noticed the COVID-19 vaccine requirements: his two doses of AstraZeneca-Oxford wouldn't be enough for admission.

Screech, the mayor of View Royal, B.C., and a Springsteen fan of 40 years, received his second AstraZeneca dose last week, but the Jujamcyn Theaters' website said it would only allow guests "fully vaccinated with an FDA-approved vaccine" — Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna or Johnson & Johnson."

"Live tapings of TV shows including Saturday Night Live and The Late Show with Stephen Colbert also snub AstraZeneca doses in rules listed on their websites, which say they're acting "at the direction of New York state."

 

That is ridiculous. Particularly since everyone is required to be vaccinated to get in anyway, the fact that some may have been vaccinated with less effective vaccines than others shouldn’t make any significant difference, I wouldn’t think. I hope it gets sorted out. 

[Laura Corin]

4 hours ago, wathe said:

Here's some new vaccine fun:

New York is declining to recognize those who've had a full course of AstraZeneca covid vaccine as vaccinated, and denying entry to venues based on that.  We'll see how this evolves.  There are huge implications for international travel (not to mention millions of angry Canadians - the USA sent us that much of that AZ after all)

"David Screech had already selected his seats and put in his credit card information for Springsteen on Broadway tickets when he noticed the COVID-19 vaccine requirements: his two doses of AstraZeneca-Oxford wouldn't be enough for admission.

Screech, the mayor of View Royal, B.C., and a Springsteen fan of 40 years, received his second AstraZeneca dose last week, but the Jujamcyn Theaters' website said it would only allow guests "fully vaccinated with an FDA-approved vaccine" — Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna or Johnson & Johnson."

"Live tapings of TV shows including Saturday Night Live and The Late Show with Stephen Colbert also snub AstraZeneca doses in rules listed on their websites, which say they're acting "at the direction of New York state."

 

I suspect they don't have confidence in the vaccines developed in China and Russia,  and AZ got caught in the crossfire. 

[TravelingChris]

10 hours ago, Laura Corin said:

I suspect they don't have confidence in the vaccines developed in China and Russia,  and AZ got caught in the crossfire. 

Yes, I know that a number of countries aren't accepting the Chinese or Russian vaccines as proof of anything.

[Ausmumof3]

10 hours ago, Laura Corin said:

I suspect they don't have confidence in the vaccines developed in China and Russia,  and AZ got caught in the crossfire. 

I also believe Astra Zenecas effectiveness against the delta variant is concerning unless there’s some new research I’ve missed.

edited to add I checked myself and there is some new pre print research I’d missed and it looks pretty good at 92 pc

https://khub.net/web/phe-national/public-library/-/document_library/v2WsRK3ZlEig/view_file/479607329?_com_liferay_document_library_web_portlet_DLPortlet_INSTANCE_v2WsRK3ZlEig_redirect=https%3A%2F%2Fkhub.net%3A443%2Fweb%2Fphe-national%2Fpublic-library%2F-%2Fdocument_library%2Fv2WsRK3ZlEig%2Fview%2F479607266

Edited June 19, 2021 by Ausmumof3

[Melissa Louise]

I hope it is effective re hospital admissions. 2nd dose in a few day's time. Worried about Delta here + slow (no) rollout of Pfizer for under 60's. 

[ieta_cassiopeia]

On 6/17/2021 at 10:49 AM, Laura Corin said:

My 21 year old and 25 year old children have booked appointments for next week. Their second jabs are still 12 weeks thereafter. The English government has only shortened the period for the over forties. I assume that Pfizer/Moderna deliveries are the issue.

You assume correctly. Hence why only dose 1 is the aim for the next 4 weeks.

New York's stance does not surprise me; I believe the UK is having the equivalent rule for at least some of its test re-openings of mass events, assessed via the NHS app (that is to say, non-UK-approved vaccines aren't treated as valid vaccination by the app, thus don't allow access on "vaccination" grounds). It's just that, since the UK has approved four of the most common vaccines and is on course to approve two more, so many fewer people are caught out. Also, they're also allowing anyone to turn up with a recent negative test, partly to avoid age discrimination charges (most adults under-40 are still in the process of vaccination) and partly to avoid exclusions based on not having a smartphone (over 20% of UK adults don't have one and therefore can't have the NHS app).

Must be really frustrating for the people who want tickets, are likely to be immune and would probably be happy to prove it if given a mechanism actually accessible to them.

Effectiveness against Delta in the UK drops for all vaccines (links to sources in the news article), as expected for a variant with partial vaccine escape, but the drop for OxfordAstrazeneca is only to 60% (slightly lower than J&J's against COVID-19 in general). Pfizer drops to 79% - a bigger fall but the baseline effectiveness is so high that the fall still protects most people who get it.

Of those who get Delta while double-vaccinated, there's over 85% protection from going to hospital regardless of whether Pfizer or OxfordAstrazeneca is the chosen vaccine (as you'd expect given the other statistics so far, Pfizer is even more protective). I hope Melissa Louise finds this reassuring.

[Pen]

22 hours ago, wathe said:

Good catch re: approved.  They should have used 'authorized".

It's not really about getting to see a show.  It's about the  use of FDA authorization as a proxy for efficacy, and limiting the movements of people based on this.  There are huge implications for travel, business, cross-border work, tourism economy, etc.

I think much of this whole situation is about power and control.  Not logically about health.
 

For example, if it were logically about health people who have recovered from CV should be considered immune. So it isn’t just an issue of what company’s shots someone got that is not seeming reasonable and logical if health is the goal. 
 

I plan to start a separate thread not to rabbit hole or sidetrack this one with something I am interested in your (and a few other people’s here too particularly) take on. I’ll tag you (and them) when I do. 
 

ETA: started the other thread - title is what the linked video is titled How to Save the World in 3 Easy Steps 

 

Edited June 19, 2021 by Pen

[1234]

I have a cousin who had Covid early on, got the vaccine as soon as he was eligible, and just recovered from Covid a second time. 😳 The second time was way worse and the family was worried he wouldn’t make it. I’m guessing he is just unlucky and that he doesn’t seem to be developing an immunity to the virus at all? 

[HeartString]

3 minutes ago, Joker2 said:

I have a cousin who had Covid early on, got the vaccine as soon as he was eligible, and just recovered from Covid a second time. 😳 The second time was way worse and the family was worried he wouldn’t make it. I’m guessing he is just unlucky and that he doesn’t seem to be developing an immunity to the virus at all? 

There are some people who are like that with different viruses.  Some people got chicken pox multiple times even though that’s usually a virus with life long immunity.  It’s just one of those things.  Human bodies do weird things sometimes.  

[KSera]

23 minutes ago, Joker2 said:

I have a cousin who had Covid early on, got the vaccine as soon as he was eligible, and just recovered from Covid a second time. 😳 The second time was way worse and the family was worried he wouldn’t make it. I’m guessing he is just unlucky and that he doesn’t seem to be developing an immunity to the virus at all? 

Sounds like for some his body isn’t mounting a proper immune response. Does he have any known immuno deficiency? I read a study the other day that the monoclonal antibodies are helpful for people who are not mounting their own immune response. 

[Dmmetler]

5 hours ago, Joker2 said:

I have a cousin who had Covid early on, got the vaccine as soon as he was eligible, and just recovered from Covid a second time. 😳 The second time was way worse and the family was worried he wouldn’t make it. I’m guessing he is just unlucky and that he doesn’t seem to be developing an immunity to the virus at all? 

It would probably be a good idea to see an immunologist. I have a friend who had a kidney transplant and has no discernible antibodies after both mRNA doses, so they’ve been referred to immunology to hopefully figure out what is going on. 

[Corraleno]

Preliminary trial results on a German mRNA vaccine, CureVac, indicate an unexpectedly low efficacy rate of only 47%. The linked article goes into some of the technical details, but the short version is that Pfizer & Moderna use a specially modified form of mRNA that seems to enhance immune response, whereas CureVac chose to use the unmodified version. CureVac also used a much lower dose — 12 mcg vs 30 for Pfizer and 100 for Moderna — and the article suggests that they may have been forced to use a lower dose due to side effects caused by the unmodified form of mRNA. Of course they are also testing against more dangerous variants compared to the earlier trials for Pfizer & Moderna, but that is clearly only part of the issue, since CureVac did very poorly even against the Alpha (UK) variant, which Pfizer is quite effective against. It's especially disappointing since CureVac is supposedly easier to store and handle than Pfizer and Moderna, and many were hoping it would combine the efficacy of the first mRNA vaccines with storage requirements that would be more realistic in poorer countries.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2021/06/what-went-wrong-curevac-s-highly-anticipated-new-mrna-vaccine-covid-19

[Dmmetler]

On 6/18/2021 at 12:24 PM, wathe said:

Here's some new vaccine fun:

New York is declining to recognize those who've had a full course of AstraZeneca covid vaccine as vaccinated, and denying entry to venues based on that.  We'll see how this evolves.  There are huge implications for international travel (not to mention millions of angry Canadians - the USA sent us that much of that AZ after all)

"David Screech had already selected his seats and put in his credit card information for Springsteen on Broadway tickets when he noticed the COVID-19 vaccine requirements: his two doses of AstraZeneca-Oxford wouldn't be enough for admission.

Screech, the mayor of View Royal, B.C., and a Springsteen fan of 40 years, received his second AstraZeneca dose last week, but the Jujamcyn Theaters' website said it would only allow guests "fully vaccinated with an FDA-approved vaccine" — Pfizer-BioNTech, Moderna or Johnson & Johnson."

"Live tapings of TV shows including Saturday Night Live and The Late Show with Stephen Colbert also snub AstraZeneca doses in rules listed on their websites, which say they're acting "at the direction of New York state."

 

I was kind of gratified to see that Agnes Scott’s Vaccination form includes having had a full cycle of ANY COVID vaccine approved by national government, or proof of COVID immunity-just like any other vaccine. They have about 20% international students in a typical year, and while some stayed in the USA and on campus last year, some presumably went home when shutdown happened in 2020 (and I assume at least some new ones in the class of 2025). It makes a lot more sense than to say that a vaccine approved in another country is somehow not valid-especially since most of these kids would have had to be vaccinated to get on a flight in their home country! 

[Pawz4me]

21 minutes ago, Dmmetler said:

It would probably be a good idea to see an immunologist. I have a friend who had a kidney transplant and has no discernible antibodies after both mRNA doses, so they’ve been referred to immunology to hopefully figure out what is going on. 

At this point it's been pretty well established that many transplant recipients aren't getting a very good response to the vaccines due to the immune suppressing anti-rejection medicines they have to take. The same lack of response is occurring in people with some blood cancers and people on certain immune suppressing medications. Although your friend's situation is unfortunate, there's probably no need to see anyone about it at this point, I don't think. TPTB are trying to figure it out--if a booster will help, etc. Until that's decided I'm not sure there's much that can be done other than continuing to mask, social distance, etc.

[wathe]

On 6/18/2021 at 5:31 PM, Laura Corin said:

I suspect they don't have confidence in the vaccines developed in China and Russia,  and AZ got caught in the crossfire. 

I think it was just a case of making a policy without really thinking.

I see that New York State has amended their guidance to include both FDA and WHO authorized vaccines.  Though I don't see it on the NYS website - probably just don't know where to look to get the full policy details.

[whitestavern]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/cdc-says-heart-issues-after-covid-shots-surpass-1200-cases/ar-AALm8JQ

 

[wathe]

Canadian update:

In my province, we've started doing mixed dose regimens.  It's been very hard for the public to accept.

Those who had AZ for a first dose are recommended to get mRNA for a second dose.  That's been generally well accepted.

Those who've had mRNA for a first dose, get mRNA for the second dose, but not necessarily the same product.  We had a lot of Pfizer initially, so a lot of people had that for their first dose. We now have a plentiful Moderna supply, and a shortage of Pfizer.  So people who had Pfizer for their first dose are showing up to mass vax appointments and being offered Moderna for their second dose (as per NACI guidelines).  They don't know this until they are in the chair (those who pay attention to media should know this was likely to happen, but many don't, apparently).  They are generally NOT happy about it. 

We also have this weird thing where the public has latched onto Pfizer as "the best" and decline Moderna even for first doses.  I have had people walk out on me when we run Moderna clinics.

I spent my day yesterday at a mass max clinic disappointing person after person after person who expected orhoped for Pfizer, and all I had to offer was Moderna.  Not a fun day for any of us.

[vonfirmath]

30 minutes ago, wathe said:

Canadian update:

In my province, we've started doing mixed dose regimens.  It's been very hard for the public to accept.

Those who had AZ for a first dose are recommended to get mRNA for a second dose.  That's been generally well accepted.

Those who've had mRNA for a first dose, get mRNA for the second dose, but not necessarily the same product.  We had a lot of Pfizer initially, so a lot of people had that for their first dose. We now have a plentiful Moderna supply, and a shortage of Pfizer.  So people who had Pfizer for their first dose are showing up to mass vax appointments and being offered Moderna for their second dose (as per NACI guidelines).  They don't know this until they are in the chair (those who pay attention to media should know this was likely to happen, but many don't, apparently).  They are generally NOT happy about it. 

We also have this weird thing where the public has latched onto Pfizer as "the best" and decline Moderna even for first doses.  I have had people walk out on me when we run Moderna clinics.

I spent my day yesterday at a mass max clinic disappointing person after person after person who expected orhoped for Pfizer, and all I had to offer was Moderna.  Not a fun day for any of us.

Woah? Why do they think Moderna is worse? I've thought the two were virtually interchangeable?

[Junie]

@wathe Thank you for explaining the mixed doses.  I know one Canadian IRL, and I know that he received one dose of Moderna and one of Pfizer.  Your explanation makes sense.  I don't remember which one he got first.

[wathe]

Just now, vonfirmath said:

Woah? Why do they think Moderna is worse? I've thought the two were virtually interchangeable?

I know, it's weird.  But it's definitely a thing.  And it doesn't make any logical sense.

Pfizer was the first to be approved here, and was the one we had the most supply of for quite a long time.  It's got brand recognition.

[Shoeless]

22 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

Woah? Why do they think Moderna is worse? I've thought the two were virtually interchangeable?

I see a lot of news that talks about how good Pfizer.  There's a lot of data on Pfizer, (maybe? Probably? because of the agreement they have with Israel), but there isn't quite as much data on Moderna, so it makes the news less often. 

That's not to say that Moderna isn't as effective as Pfizer, or that there isn't data on it. It's just that there is so much data on Pfizer, and which drives the news reports.  It seems to overshadow the other vaccine products. I am guessing that is influencing the public perception of which vax is "better". 

[Not_a_Number]

35 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

Woah? Why do they think Moderna is worse? I've thought the two were virtually interchangeable?

I had the impression Moderna had a higher dosage? Is that correct, does anyone know? 

But yes, I thought they were VERY similar. 

[whitestavern]

1 hour ago, wathe said:

Canadian update:

In my province, we've started doing mixed dose regimens.  It's been very hard for the public to accept.

Those who had AZ for a first dose are recommended to get mRNA for a second dose.  That's been generally well accepted.

Those who've had mRNA for a first dose, get mRNA for the second dose, but not necessarily the same product.  We had a lot of Pfizer initially, so a lot of people had that for their first dose. We now have a plentiful Moderna supply, and a shortage of Pfizer.  So people who had Pfizer for their first dose are showing up to mass vax appointments and being offered Moderna for their second dose (as per NACI guidelines).  They don't know this until they are in the chair (those who pay attention to media should know this was likely to happen, but many don't, apparently).  They are generally NOT happy about it. 

We also have this weird thing where the public has latched onto Pfizer as "the best" and decline Moderna even for first doses.  I have had people walk out on me when we run Moderna clinics.

I spent my day yesterday at a mass max clinic disappointing person after person after person who expected orhoped for Pfizer, and all I had to offer was Moderna.  Not a fun day for any of us.

I would be uncomfortable with this. Those people are essentially guinea pigs as there has been no testing of that regimen. 

In my circle, everyone thinks Pfizer is better. Most people I know waited to be vaccinated until they could choose. 

[Penelope]

12 minutes ago, MissLemon said:

I see a lot of news that talks about how good Pfizer.  There's a lot of data on Pfizer, (maybe? Probably? because of the agreement they have with Israel), but there isn't quite as much data on Moderna, so it makes the news less often. 

Pfizer is going to be better at marketing because they are pros at it. Also, it’s been in the news more because they were first to get EUA for adults, then more recently, first for teens. They also took a chance and asked for down to 16 with the adult EUA even without much data, so they have been the only one available for under 18. 
 

Moderna is given at a higher dose, though, and there is a perception that there are more symptoms after Moderna and that the dose may be the reason. Maybe that’s due to subtle marketing, too, but it is a higher dose. Today at the ACIP meeting discussing myocarditis, there was a suggestion that Moderna may be “driving” the cases of myocarditis in younger people, though the caveat was given that numbers are small so even slight differences in numbers over time could make it seem to go either way with more cases after one brand vs. the other.

Edited June 23, 2021 by Penelope