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From this:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/williamhaseltine/2021/03/10/covid-19-reinfections-are-real-and-serious-all-the-more-reason-to-be-vaccinated/amp/


We also have examples of reinfection from other parts of the world, namely South Africa. During the Novavax vaccine trials in South Africa, the study found an overall primary efficacy of 49.4% in 4,400 participants, meaning about half of the patients vaccinated and later infected did not experience symptoms. Genomic analyses revealed that about a third of the 4,400 were previously positive for infection, meaning the South African variant was then and is now capable of reinfection, evading neutralizing antibodies in a similar capacity to the Brazilian variant.

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I’m getting the Pfizer vaccine on Monday! I’m prepping myself for some side effects, so am glad I’ll have a few days to recover before Christmas.

My health care provider called me today and said my turn has come to get the vaccine and I'd be able to get my first shot of Moderna on Monday. I literally broke into tears of joy.  Bill

My dd works at a grocery store and people have actually shared their positive test results as she's bagging their groceries, as in, "I tested positive 3 days ago." More than once.

20 minutes ago, Penelope said:

Here’s the paper. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.04.06.21254882v1.full.pdf
 

 I think what they did for the article is take either an average or nice round number to say how many cases of that variant in Israel across all those studied.

If you look at the table, The 5.4% was for those who were fully vaccinated, which they considered to be 7 days after second dose, and that group was only 149 people. 
But then the additional comment, not in the paper, was that all of the B1351 were in the group that is 7-13 days past the second dose. It isn’t clear in the paper, because they lumped the numbers for all the variants together when they showed the numbers by time after vaccination. 

Looking at the table it looks as if there are 8 people in the fully vaccinated group with B1351.  Interestingly, over 50% of the people in the fully vaccinated group were over 60 years old.  About 25% of the control group were over 60.  The majority in the control group were under 40 years old.  

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30 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

Looking at the table it looks as if there are 8 people in the fully vaccinated group with B1351.  Interestingly, over 50% of the people in the fully vaccinated group were over 60 years old.  About 25% of the control group were over 60.  The majority in the control group were under 40 years old.  

That is interesting.
I’ve heard talk that we would expect to have more vaccine failure in older age groups, as there is for flu vaccine. So far older people have had good response to mRNA, I think less with J and J, but the trials didn’t include the frailest elderly and not many of the very old that are dying at highest rates from Covid. I guess we’ll see, but it might be that we will continue to have a few nursing home outbreaks in the winter, just like with influenza. 

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3 minutes ago, Penelope said:

That is interesting.
I’ve heard talk that we would expect to have more vaccine failure in older age groups, as there is for flu vaccine. So far older people have had good response to mRNA, I think less with J and J, but the trials didn’t include the frailest elderly and not many of the very old that are dying at highest rates from Covid. I guess we’ll see, but it might be that we will continue to have a few nursing home outbreaks in the winter, just like with influenza. 

I am not sure what conclusions can be drawn regarding vaccine failure from this study.  It appears that the sample is of people who were diagnosed with COVID--and then seeing what variant those people had.  It is really just looking at if someone is vaccinated and then does get COVID what variant is it likely that they had.  But, the vaccine may still be greatly reducing the likelihood that they have COVID at all.  So, it may provide GREAT protection from certain variants and GOOD protection from others.  

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27 minutes ago, Penelope said:

I agree that this study doesn’t say anything about that or anything to do with age.

That was all just me speculating about the future.

I do not know much about how people are going about daily life in Israel at this point, but if people who are 60+ are interacting in ways that perhaps has them exposed to the various variants in ways that are different than those under 40, then there is not really a match between the two samples.  

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6 hours ago, kand said:

I haven’t looked at the actual study, only some analysis, and as far as age, it was noted that all three deaths in the vaccinated group were in people over 65. I’m curious what the actual ages were. Being in people in their late 60s is very different than people in their late 80s. 

Where were deaths mentioned in the paper? Was that reported in the media? We are talking about the Israeli study with the vaccine escape cases, right? Confused.

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Two new studies about B117 seem relevant to this thread. Both from the UK.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpub/article/PIIS2468-2667(21)00055-4/fulltext

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00170-5/fulltext

 

The first finds no substantial increased risk of reinfection with this variant. Also reinforces previous epi evidence of increased transmissibility.

The second finds no increased risk of disease severity or death for hospitalized Covid patients. It was done before the height of the UK winter surge, and they actually sequenced viral samples and are measuring Covid—specific mortality.

The two studies in BMJ and Nature that showing higher mortality with the variant both used the same data set with much larger community samples, but they used S-dropout-PCRs to find their cases, and measured all-cause mortality rather than Covid-related mortality. 
 

Like others, they did find indirect evidence, via PCR, of higher viral loads with the variant.
 

The editorial has a good discussion, excerpt is from it. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00201-2/fulltext
 

Quote
Thus, although limited by a much smaller dataset, the study by Frampton and colleagues has important advantages over the three community studies. These advantages include the use of whole-genome sequencing, recruitment of hospitalised patients, and a population reflective of the spectrum of severity in whom increased virulence will have the greatest effect on outcomes. The finding that lineage B.1.1.7 infection did not confer increased risk of severe disease and mortality in this high-risk cohort is reassuring but requires further confirmation in larger studies.
These differences between B.1.1.7 and non-B.1.1.7 lineages mirror those of other virological sub-groups of SARS-CoV-2. Similarly conflicting data was initially reported when variants carrying the Asp614Gly substitution emerged and became the dominant variants worldwide over the first few months of the pandemic in 2020. Early population-level data suggested that this substitution was associated with increased COVID-19 mortality but later cohort studies found no effect on disease severity.
9 
10 In a study we did in Singapore comparing different SARS-CoV-2 clades, Asp614Gly was associated with increased viral loads without changes in severity or transmission.



 

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Just now, Not_a_Number said:

I’m also wondering.

Yeah, like, how does this compare to other things, like a tetanus vaccine, birth control pills, etc, you know?

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5 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Yeah, like, how does this compare to other things, like a tetanus vaccine, birth control pills, etc, you know?

We never vaccinate this many all at once, it’s true. Makes the rare effects much more obvious. Same as with COVID, really — having everyone infected at once makes patterns clearer.

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7 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

Yeah, like, how does this compare to other things, like a tetanus vaccine, birth control pills, etc, you know?

I've seen lots of people pointing out that birth control pills have a much higher rate of blood clots. Smoking, too. And, you know, covid.

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  • After a single dose of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine, people with a prior COVID-19 infection had antibody levels similar to those of people without prior infection after two vaccine doses.
  • The results, which need to be confirmed in large, diverse populations, may point to a strategy to stretch the currently limited supply of vaccines against COVID-19.
     
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It's concerning that extreme caution in the West is creating suspicion of AZ and J&J in poor countries, who may then turn to vaccines from Russia and China that also use adenovirus vectors and will most likely have the same problem — one of the Chinese vaccines uses the same chimp virus as AZ, and another uses human adenoviruses, like J&J and Sputnik. And I'm skeptical that either Russia or China would honestly report blood clot issues.

Slovakia is one of the few European countries that ordered Sputnik (which is not approved in the EU) and after they complained about serious quality control issues, Russia basically called them liars and demanded they return the vaccine they bought.

China does have at least one (and I think two) inactivated-virus vaccines, but I don't know what stage those are at. And again, who knows if any data on those would be trustworthy.

Novavax was initially planning to apply for EUA next month on the strength of the UK data, but I wonder if they will decide to wait until the US trial completes? Maybe the FDA will be super cautious about approving another vaccine and will want to wait for more data? OTOH, pausing J&J is a real setback for the vaccine rollout here, and we could definitely use another option, especially one with very high efficacy that can be stored at normal fridge temperatures. The US ordered 110 million doses, and Novavax says they should be able to deliver all of those by July. If we could start using Novavax on adults this summer, and make the Pfizer & Moderna available to 12-18s as soon as they get EUAs for that age group, that could really help get middle- and high school students vaxxed before school starts.

 

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1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

It's concerning that extreme caution in the West is creating suspicion of AZ and J&J in poor countries, who may then turn to vaccines from Russia and China that also use adenovirus vectors and will most likely have the same problem — one of the Chinese vaccines uses the same chimp virus as AZ, and another uses the same Ad5 virus as J&J and Sputnik. And I'm skeptical that either Russia or China would honestly report blood clot issues.

Slovakia is one of the few European countries that ordered Sputnik (which is not approved in the EU) and after they complained about serious quality control issues, Russia basically called them liars and demanded they return the vaccine they bought.

China does have at least one (and I think two) inactivated-virus vaccines, but I don't know what stage those are at. And again, who knows if any data on those would be trustworthy.

Novavax was initially planning to apply for EUA next month on the strength of the UK data, but I wonder if they will decide to wait until the US trial completes? Maybe the FDA will be super cautious about approving another vaccine and will want to wait for more data? OTOH, pausing J&J is a real setback for the vaccine rollout here, and we could definitely use another option, especially one with very high efficacy that can be stored at normal fridge temperatures. The US ordered 110 million doses, and Novavax says they should be able to deliver all of those by July. If we could start using Novavax on adults this summer, and make the Pfizer & Moderna available to 12-18s as soon as they get EUAs for that age group, that could really help get middle- and high school students vaxxed before school starts.

 

Do you have an awareness of when (roughly speaking) Pfizer and/or Moderna might have the data necessary to seek emergency authorization for 12-15 year olds (Pfizer) and 12-17 year olds (Moderna)?

BTW, thank you for your incredible efforts staying on top of the vaccination news and sharing it here. You have become an invaluable resource for me on this topic and I'm certain that feeling is widely shared on this forum.

Greatly appreciated!

Bill

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24 minutes ago, Spy Car said:

Do you have an awareness of when (roughly speaking) Pfizer and/or Moderna might have the data necessary to seek emergency authorization for 12-15 year olds (Pfizer) and 12-17 year olds (Moderna)?

BTW, thank you for your incredible efforts staying on top of the vaccination news and sharing it here. You have become an invaluable resource for me on this topic and I'm certain that feeling is widely shared on this forum.

Greatly appreciated!

Bill

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/09/world/pfizer-covid-vaccine-young-teens.html
 

Pfizer has already applied! 
 

I agree that @Corraleno’s posts are always informative and much appreciated!

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Yeah, I dunno about that. It's possible we're underselling, but the people who are hesitant are also largely the people who've decided COVID is a hoax, anyway... 

I have family in Michigan that will not vax, it is not political or believed to be a hoax.  It is because they are part of a religious community that doesn't vaccinate or participate in politics or much of anything that has to do with modern times. They have been passing COVID among their people. They know they have COVID, but they just deal with it as if it is just a run of the mill virus. 

 

Now as for me, we are getting vaxxed. I am one Pfizer down! WAHOO!

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5 hours ago, Penelope said:

JNJ/Janssen uses Ad26, different than Sputnik.

 

You're right, I should have said that those three are using human adenoviruses, versus AZ and Walvax (China) which use chimp adenoviruses. J&J uses Ad26, CanSino uses Ad5, and Sputnik uses both — Ad26 for the first shot and Ad5 for the second. 

 

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8 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

Ya!!!!

The article says they are expecting it for early fall for 5-11. That is wonderful news at that hits the school age crowd by the start of school (except for preschool of course). 

Now when will govt open up vaccine to the 12+?

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2 hours ago, Soror said:

Ya!!!!

The article says they are expecting it for early fall for 5-11. That is wonderful news at that hits the school age crowd by the start of school (except for preschool of course). 

Now when will govt open up vaccine to the 12+?

Great news isn't it??  I hope that the 5-11 does happen by fall.  I had a hunch that it might move faster than they said, since everything else has.  But that would be a dream come true.  

The 12-15, with all the good news a few weeks ago I thought it would happen really quickly from what some people are reporting from the health depts and doctors.  They were telling them to put their kids on waitlists already to get it. 

I think they would open it right away unless they don't have supply.  But in my state it is open for everyone 16 and up and has been for 10 days I think?  So I don't see why they would hold it back unless it was a supply issue. 

Science is so great!  

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Yes, kids being vaccinated is the key. Plus kids are the ones most effected by having to distance, wear a mask, etc. I can chat on social media with friends, my 4 yr old can't. And socially, my kids need to have friends around again. 

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2 hours ago, Soror said:

Ya!!!!

The article says they are expecting it for early fall for 5-11. That is wonderful news at that hits the school age crowd by the start of school (except for preschool of course). 

Now when will govt open up vaccine to the 12+?

That would be SO GREAT. Both my kids are in that age range now.

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2 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

As of yesterday the best I was hearing was "mid winter' for under 12. Hopefully sooner, but I'm not holding my breath. 

If the one for slightly older kids is coming so soon, I actually wouldn’t be surprised it the younger kids are earlier, too!!

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9 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

If the one for slightly older kids is coming so soon, I actually wouldn’t be surprised it the younger kids are earlier, too!!

Lets hope! I actually lit at candle this sunday at church praying for a vaccine for all kids ASAP. (my first time back since the pandemic started)

But I also lit a candle for my mom for healing, and since then she fell again, and broke her arm. So...might have been  a bad batch of candles, lol. 

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3 hours ago, Soror said:

Ya!!!!

The article says they are expecting it for early fall for 5-11. That is wonderful news at that hits the school age crowd by the start of school (except for preschool of course). 

Now when will govt open up vaccine to the 12+?

I don't know. Risk Vs Reward

Is is really worth it to be vaccinating younger kids vs the risk they face vs the risk older people face in many other countries of the world?  Why don't we turn outward instead of pushing vaccines down younger and younger.

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21 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

I don't know. Risk Vs Reward

Is is really worth it to be vaccinating younger kids vs the risk they face vs the risk older people face in many other countries of the world?  Why don't we turn outward instead of pushing vaccines down younger and younger.

I see your point, and maybe I’m selfish, but I’m too worried about long-term risk not to want to vaccinate my kids. Plus, we need it for here immunity, which protects us all.

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4 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I see your point, and maybe I’m selfish, but I’m too worried about long-term risk not to want to vaccinate my kids. Plus, we need it for here immunity, which protects us all.

We will never have herd immunity as long as there are that many countries in the world without it.  Some of the variants concerning us NOW started in other countries (South Africa, Brazil. MAybe elsewhere we don't even know)

 

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Just now, vonfirmath said:

We will never have herd immunity as long as there are that many countries in the world without it.

I think we’ll be much safer in the US in the meantime, though.

This is definitely a very selfish perspective. I see that. I just want my kids to go back to activities again 😞 .

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I too want my kids back in their activities. 

I agree that other countries need vaccines.

If they made it so high risk families could have their kids vaccinated (I have 2 kids who need to not get COVID), that would be a start....

But then there is the problem of not knowing what COVID can do to the long term health of kids, even healthy ones. That might be bad too. 

I just don't think there is a great/easy solution. 

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1 hour ago, vonfirmath said:

I don't know. Risk Vs Reward

Is is really worth it to be vaccinating younger kids vs the risk they face vs the risk older people face in many other countries of the world?  Why don't we turn outward instead of pushing vaccines down younger and younger.

I agree with this 100%.  Honestly though, I've had to accept the fact that the US will never turn outward regarding vaccines until we feel like we've taken care of our own, so I've grudgingly taken to hoping things can move as quickly as possible in the US.

Hopefully, the US supply will be high enough soon that we can both vaccinate our own and remember that the world's health does affect the health of individual Americans.  But I wish things were different.

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1 hour ago, Amira said:

 

Hopefully, the US supply will be high enough soon that we can both vaccinate our own and remember that the world's health does affect the health of individual Americans.  But I wish things were different.

CNN had a headline this morning that there might be as many as 300 million surplus doses in the US by July, so, yes, hopefully it won't be long.

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2 hours ago, vonfirmath said:

Is is really worth it to be vaccinating younger kids vs the risk they face vs the risk older people face in many other countries of the world?  Why don't we turn outward instead of pushing vaccines down younger and younger.

The vaccines that will be available for kids this summer will be Pfizer and Moderna, and there's no way the US will be giving away the expensive mRNA vaccines. We have ordered a total of 600 million doses of those, which should be plenty to cover everyone in the US who wants a vaccine, including children, and assuming no supply issues we should have all of those doses by the end of July.

We ordered 200 million doses of J&J, so there should be plenty of that left over, but I would guess the US will hold onto that one for a while, to use with populations where a second dose can't be guaranteed. Also, if their 2-dose trial shows higher efficacy, we may need some for second shots for anyone who already had J&J. (Although the UK is currently running a trial on mix-&-match vaccine use, so it's possible that people who got a first J&J shot could get Pfizer or Moderna for a 2nd shot.)

We ordered 100 million doses of Novavax, although they are way behind schedule due to supply chain issues. If they are able to get an EUA and deliver a significant number of doses this summer, that could also free up some J&J for donation.

We also ordered 300 million doses of AZ, and it's extremely unlikely we will ever use those. I think we only have ~30 million doses on hand, but that could be distributed right away, and then we could donate the rest of the doses we are "owed" to the WHO's COVAX program for distribution in poor countries. We are supposedly giving 4 million doses of AZ to Canada & Mexico (assuming they still want them).

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1 minute ago, Corraleno said:

The vaccines that will be available for kids this summer will be Pfizer and Moderna, and there's no way the US will be giving away the expensive mRNA vaccines. We have ordered a total of 600 million doses of those, which should be plenty to cover everyone in the US who wants a vaccine, including children, and assuming no supply issues we should have all of those doses by the end of July.

We ordered 200 million doses of J&J, so there should also be plenty of that left over, but I would guess the US will hold onto that one for a while, to use with populations where a second dose can't be guaranteed. Also, if their 2-dose trial shows higher efficacy, we may need some of those doses for second shots for anyone who already had J&J. (Although the UK is currently running a trial on mix-&-match vaccine use, so it's possible that people who got a first J&J shot could get Pfizer or Moderna for a 2nd shot.)

We ordered 100 million doses of Novavax, although they are way behind schedule due to supply chain issues. If they are able to get an EUA and deliver a significant number of doses this summer, that could also free up some J&J for donation.

We also ordered 300 million doses of AZ, and it's extremely unlikely we will ever use those. I think we only have ~30 million doses on hand, but that could be distributed right away, and then we could donate the rest of the doses we are "owed" to the WHO's COVAX program for distribution in poor countries. We are supposedly giving 4 million doses of AZ to Canada & Mexico (assuming they still want them).

If we deem AZ and J&J unsuitable for use for our own populations, why do we think they are good enough for the other countries?

If the only vaccinations that are good enough are the mRNA then yes, we need to find a way to share those.

 

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5 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

If we deem AZ and J&J unsuitable for use for our own populations, why do we think they are good enough for the other countries?

If the only vaccinations that are good enough are the mRNA then yes, we need to find a way to share those.

 

Yes. Even though it will cost us more money to do that. It’s worth it.

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43 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

If we deem AZ and J&J unsuitable for use for our own populations, why do we think they are good enough for the other countries?

If the only vaccinations that are good enough are the mRNA then yes, we need to find a way to share those.

 

I agree, other than the logisitical issue of storage for those. I think where we can we should use the mRNA ones, no matter what country. But in some areas that may be very hard logistically, and an easier to store/transport one might be better than no vaccine. 

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47 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

 We are supposedly giving 4 million doses of AZ to Canada & Mexico (assuming they still want them).

Nitpicky but important detail wrt to Canada: Loan, not give.  To be repaid.

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3 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

I agree, other than the logisitical issue of storage for those. I think where we can we should use the mRNA ones, no matter what country. But in some areas that may be very hard logistically, and an easier to store/transport one might be better than no vaccine. 

This (and cost) is why I was so excited about Astro Zeneca. Because it has so many fewer challenges associated.

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52 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

If we deem AZ and J&J unsuitable for use for our own populations, why do we think they are good enough for the other countries?

If the only vaccinations that are good enough are the mRNA then yes, we need to find a way to share those.

 

Well storage is a huge issue. Also so far the risk seems very minimal, and if we didn’t have any other options I don’t think we would be any where near as hesitant about the J&J and AZ vaccines.

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