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18 minutes ago, Laura Corin said:

I think that the reaction in the EU and the UK is an attempt to bolster public confidence by making it clear that even tiny possible risks are being taken seriously.

Yes exactly!  It does bother me a little that the UK did not identify any cases till Europe started reporting them. 

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I’m getting the Pfizer vaccine on Monday! I’m prepping myself for some side effects, so am glad I’ll have a few days to recover before Christmas.

My health care provider called me today and said my turn has come to get the vaccine and I'd be able to get my first shot of Moderna on Monday. I literally broke into tears of joy.  Bill

My dd works at a grocery store and people have actually shared their positive test results as she's bagging their groceries, as in, "I tested positive 3 days ago." More than once.

I haven’t verified this yet but I think it’s interesting.  Even in the 40-50 group it seems like benefits outweighs the risks at this point.  And in the 30-39 though less clearly.

EDEAE90D-FDD4-41A1-91E6-EE2467C1BFEB.jpeg

Edited by Ausmumof3
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2 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I haven’t verified this yet but I think it’s interesting.  Even in the 40-50 group it seems like benefits outweighs the risks at this point.

EDEAE90D-FDD4-41A1-91E6-EE2467C1BFEB.jpeg

Yes, probably right. And that’s leaving out long COVID.

That being said, I’d still be nervous.

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On 4/4/2021 at 6:42 PM, popmom said:

I just got an appointment with Walmart to get the vaccine. One of the questions it asked when I was registering was whether I have taken antivirals for longer than 2 weeks. I’m on an antiviral for CFS/ME. Anybody know anything about this? Is this something I should be concerned about? I’ll call the prescribing doctor about it tomorrow, but I really don’t anticipate that he will know anything about it. 

Did you find anything else about this?  I haven't seen anything about it. 

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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Director Dr. Rochelle Walensky anticipates that all schools will be fully in person and no longer remote in September 2021.

Asked when she expects children will become eligible to get vaccinated, Walensky said by mid-May. Pfizer recently released promising data indicating its vaccine is safe and effective for children ages 12 to 15.

Asked when she expects children will become eligible to get vaccinated, Walensky said by mid-May. Pfizer recently released promising data indicating its vaccine is safe and effective for children ages 12 to 15.

 

"Mid-May maybe we'll be able to have a vaccine from Pfizer that we'll be able to do down to 12," she said, pending Food and Drug Administration authorization for that age group.

CDC Director Rochelle Walensky expects all schools will be fully open for in-person learning in September - ABC News (go.com)

Edited by mommyoffive
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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yes exactly!  It does bother me a little that the UK did not identify any cases till Europe started reporting them. 

It could possibly be because of the age thing. It would be good to know when the cases occurred in the UK. Germany etc would not give it to older people initially so may have been giving it to the younger age group where the problems seem to be. The UK started their vaccination campaign mostly with older people and have worked down the age groups. My 54 year old brother just got his first dose last week. 

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4 minutes ago, TCB said:

It could possibly be because of the age thing. It would be good to know when the cases occurred in the UK. Germany etc would not give it to older people initially so may have been giving it to the younger age group where the problems seem to be. The UK started their vaccination campaign mostly with older people and have worked down the age groups. My 54 year old brother just got his first dose last week. 

Hmm good point!  I wonder if that’s a factor.  There’s no definite confirmation that the problem is only in younger people yet as far as I know but seems to be a pattern.

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12 minutes ago, TCB said:

It could possibly be because of the age thing. It would be good to know when the cases occurred in the UK. Germany etc would not give it to older people initially so may have been giving it to the younger age group where the problems seem to be. The UK started their vaccination campaign mostly with older people and have worked down the age groups. My 54 year old brother just got his first dose last week. 

That makes sense. The cohorts have been strict and are heavily weighted towards older people.

Screenshot_20210408-152021_Chrome.jpg

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9 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Hmm good point!  I wonder if that’s a factor.  There’s no definite confirmation that the problem is only in younger people yet as far as I know but seems to be a pattern.

I think the age of the oldest case in the UK so far was around 60, but not 100% sure on that.

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Latest on the Astra Zeneca vaccine in India.

The gap between the first and second dose has been increased due to recommendations for efficacy.

https://www.outlookindia.com/website/story/india-news-explained-heres-why-interval-between-covishield-jabs-has-been-increased-to-8-weeks/378569

Meanwhile a notice has been sent to the Indian firm manufacturing the vaccine by Astra Zeneca to increase production. They in turn have asked for government grants to make that possible. 

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/astrazeneca-sends-legal-notice-to-sii-over-delays-in-vaccine-supply/articleshow/81960902.cms

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5 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Hmm good point!  I wonder if that’s a factor.  There’s no definite confirmation that the problem is only in younger people yet as far as I know but seems to be a pattern.

It seems to be some kind of autoimmune reaction, right? And younger people have stronger immune reactions, and more likely to have an autoimmune reaction, than older people as a general rule. The only human I've known to have a clotting autoimmune problem as a teenager, in fact. (seen it in several dogs, all younger as well)

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9 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

pretty accurate summary of the current situation 😬

I wonder if they regret shelving the hiv positive test one so quickly...

I bet they do. 

Actually, no, I bet they are so busy spinning this they've convinced themselves it's all under control. I momentarily forgot what this government is like. 

We are going to end up in a bizarre position, also, where younger, fitter people have the better vaccine (if they do get vaccinated).

 

Edited by Melissa Louise
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12 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Australia is no longer recommending Astra Zeneca for under 50s unless patients gp decides the risk outweighs benefits.  This is likely to delay things a lot here as the facility built has been set up to manufacture Astra Zeneca under license and potentially won’t be of use.  

I wonder if they can use that facility for J&J instead? AZ and J&J are the same type of vaccine (adenovirus vector), and they were both being manufactured in the same facility here in the US (until idiots mixed up the ingredients). But I would think any facility that can manufacture AZ could also make J&J. It's not Pfizer, but at least there don't seem to be any issues with blood clots.

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2 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

I wonder if they can use that facility for J&J instead? AZ and J&J are the same type of vaccine (adenovirus vector), and they were both being manufactured in the same facility here in the US (until idiots mixed up the ingredients). But I would think any facility that can manufacture AZ could also make J&J. It's not Pfizer, but at least there don't seem to be any issues with blood clots.

That would be great if it worked.
 

At the moment they are talking about Novovax which I don’t know much about so I might do some more reading about that.  Johnson and Johnson wasn’t mentioned.  

Norman Swan did say last week before this became official that it would probably be theoretically possible to manufacture Pfizer there but would take a bit more effort.  
 

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29 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

At the moment they are talking about Novovax which I don’t know much about so I might do some more reading about that.

Novavax's vaccine is really interesting, the technology is totally different from all the other covid vaccines. Instead of inducing the body to manufacture the spike protein, they grow the spike protein in moth cells, assemble the proteins in packages, and inject them. Efficacy is close to Pfizer and Moderna, but it can be stored at regular temperatures like J&J.

The NY Times has a good (but technical) explanation of how it works:
 https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/health/novavax-covid-19-vaccine.html

Good video explaining the technology in basic terms:

 

Edited by Corraleno
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9 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Novavax's vaccine is really interesting, the technology is totally different from all the other vaccines. Instead of inducing the body to manufacture the spike protein, they grow the spike protein in moth larvae, assemble the proteins in packages, and inject them. Efficacy is close to Pfizer and Moderna, but it can be stored at regular temperatures like J&J.

The NY Times has a good explanation of how it works here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/health/novavax-covid-19-vaccine.html

Is that what’s called molecular clamp?  Or am I confused. 

Edited to add - looks like that is a no.  It’s a different technology 

Does that mean moth larvae will be in high demand?  

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https://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/breakfast/slow-vaccine-negotiations-health-with-dr-norman-swan/13294894
 

Good interview with Norman Swan here.

Points of interest 

- yes we probably canned the UQ vaccine too soon instead of redesigning the HIV test

- negotiations with Pfizer only happened in November - uk and US were in July

- the reason we don’t have contracts with J&J and Moderna is because we won’t give them indemnity 

- supply issues will be compounded by the fact that not just Australia but many countries will now be trying to increase the supply of alternative vaccines 

- If you’ve had the first dose you should have the second because the evidence indicates the issue will show up the first time if there’s a problem

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5 hours ago, Corraleno said:

I wonder if they can use that facility for J&J instead? AZ and J&J are the same type of vaccine (adenovirus vector), and they were both being manufactured in the same facility here in the US (until idiots mixed up the ingredients). But I would think any facility that can manufacture AZ could also make J&J. It's not Pfizer, but at least there don't seem to be any issues with blood clots.

I was today years old when I learned that the Astra Zenica vaccine and the J & J vaccine are made in the same facility in Baltimore.  I just assumed that since AZ wasn't an option for US vaccinations that it was a brand that was made elsewhere. 

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9 minutes ago, KungFuPanda said:

I was today years old when I learned that the Astra Zenica vaccine and the J & J vaccine are made in the same facility in Baltimore.  I just assumed that since AZ wasn't an option for US vaccinations that it was a brand that was made elsewhere. 

Were. When they mixed up ingredients, they kicked out AZ and made it all J&J

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3 minutes ago, KungFuPanda said:

I was today years old when I learned that the Astra Zenica vaccine and the J & J vaccine are made in the same facility in Baltimore.  I just assumed that since AZ wasn't an option for US vaccinations that it was a brand that was made elsewhere. 

That was just one facility, AZ and J&J both have multiple other manufacturing facilities. I don't think any vaccines manufactured in the Baltimore plant have even been distributed in the US yet (due to ongoing issues with quality control there).

Fun fact: AZ has two manufacturing facilities in the UK and two in the EU and their contract with the EU said the EU would receive vaccines from all four plants. Then AZ told the EU that they would not even come close to delivering the number of doses they had contracted for, due to issues with one of the EU plants. The EU asked why they couldn't make up the difference with doses from the other 3 plants and discovered that the contract AZ had with the UK gave them exclusive rights to all the doses manufactured in the UK and the EU could only get them if the UK decided they didn't need them. And of course the UK decided they needed every dose, so the EU is super pissed off and accusing AZ of having purposely deceived them since their contract clearly states they would receive supplies from all four plants.

Then after the EU discovered they couldn't have any of the UK-manufactured vaccines, they tried to stop a shipment of AZ that was at a plant in Italy from leaving the EU, basically saying "two can play that game,." But AZ insisted that the doses in Italy weren't actually manufactured in Italy, they were made somewhere else (India, I think) and were only being bottled or something in Italy, so the EU had no right to hold them.

Crazy, huh?

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So we apparently are getting an extra 20,000,000 doses of Pfizer in the last three months of the year.  Nsw has paused the AZ rollout for the day while updating consent information. 
 

Im assuming based on this that we most likely have closed international borders for 2021.

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46 minutes ago, kand said:

Yay! This is totally off topic, but I was thinking this shortly ago when I read a post from you in the wedding planning thread, and I just wanted to say that I love your posts 😊. You are one of the most sincere posters here, and I love it. 

That was a good explainer. As an aside, I have been really impressed with a lot of the graphical explainers that have come out of various news organizations over the course of the pandemic. Really helpful in illustrating some complicated things in clear ways for the general public. 

I don’t know whether to like this or not. I’m glad you will be getting so much Pfizer, but I’m sorry you have to wait and that your borders will likely stay closed. 

Long term I am happier about the Pfizer.  Astra Zeneca doesn’t seem very effective against the variants and I was worried that we’d be in the same position in a few months if the South African or similar variant took off.  Hopefully in the long run this is a plus.  

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There are so many misconceptions about the vaccines and Covid, even in MSM. The best thing to do is to seek out the individuals, such as virologists, who are able to accurately assess and comment.

Lo and behold, here is a Reddit AMA with Vincent Racaniello, the host of This Week in Virology (TWiV) and also professor at Columbia as well as author of a virology textbook. The link to the full Q&A is here.

 

Edited by BeachGal
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3 hours ago, BeachGal said:

Lo and behold, here is a Reddit AMA with Vincent Racaniello, the host of This Week in Virology (TWiV) and also professor at Columbia as well as author of a virology textbook. 

I love this podcast. I’ve listened to almost every episode since last January, as well as some episodes of the sister podcasts, especially Immune. Dr. R. also does some informative Q and A sessions that are only on YouTube, and Dr. Barker, a frequent TwiV host, has her immunology lectures posted on YouTube as well.
The podcasters are not infallible, but the shows are always interesting, and also good for rabbit-trailing off of for more info. 

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15 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Long term I am happier about the Pfizer.  Astra Zeneca doesn’t seem very effective against the variants and I was worried that we’d be in the same position in a few months if the South African or similar variant took off.  Hopefully in the long run this is a plus.  

I would have waited for Pfizer. I'm really p***ed off about the whole thing. 

What we should do is ship everything AZ off to PNG, where the risk-benefit ratio is wildly in favour of vaccinating as many people as possible with any vaccine available now. 

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The interesting thing with AstraZeneca is that it was clear they were messing with their data. I think I said something like "I don't really trust them" before this blood clot stuff came out. And that's because they were clearly not honest with their numbers!! Remember we had this conversation, @Corraleno

Edited by Not_a_Number
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36 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

I would have waited for Pfizer. I'm really p***ed off about the whole thing. 

What we should do is ship everything AZ off to PNG, where the risk-benefit ratio is wildly in favour of vaccinating as many people as possible with any vaccine available now. 

Yes.  Pretty frustrating to have done the right thing and got vaccinated and then have this happen.  I guess the same issue applies to PNG but could at least vaccinate the over 40s there.  
 

I really wish the gov had not banked so hard on Astra Zeneca.  

Edited by Ausmumof3
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35 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

The interesting thing with AstraZeneca is that it was clear they were messing with their data. I think I said something like "I don't really trust them" before this blood clot stuff came out. And that's because they were clearly not honest with their numbers!! Remember we had this conversation, @Corraleno

I remember 😂

I was the one like - oh well at least it seems like Astra Zeneca are being more transparent with their data 

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  1. You have 20 minutes alone with the top few CDC or FDA people. What do you tell them?

Please stop saying the variants are more contagious/virulent. What is going on with antiviral development? Why didn't we have a rapid cheap antigen test earlier? What are you doing to respond to the next pandemic?

  1. For Non-experts, how do we evaluate the veracity of a SARS-CoV-2 paper?

Very difficult. You can't just look at the journal anymore, even the 'best' ones publish garbage, especially in a pandemic. If you don't have training in the field it will be difficult. Send it to us on TWiV and ask us.

  1. What studies have you not seen enough of for SARS-CoV-2?

Understanding how the virus causes disease, especially the inflammatory phase, and how to control it.

What studies make you say “why do they keep repeating this study?”

Studies of the ability of the virus to replicate in different 'organdies' which have little relevance to what happens in people. Studies of antibodies every month after infection.

  1. Who have been your favorite voices during the pandemic?

Daniel Griffin, the TWiV team, Ralph Baric, Susan Weiss, Peter Daszak, Andrew Rambaut. No one from mainstream media.

  1. Your least favorite?

Michael Osterholm, Peter Hotez, all the people on mainstream media and especially The NY Times which has made a mess of the pandemic.

  1. Which do you think has better information regarding the virus and pandemic, Twitter or Reddit?

Reddit. Twitter is crap. A sewage pit.

  1. Which variant or mutation is most worrying?

None so far. T cells will save us all.

  1. Any idea how much virus it takes for an infectious dose?

I would bet 1000 infectious virus particles. But no one really knows.

  1. “Keep hearing things about the new variants hitting younger people harder, and seeing it in the news. Are there any actual studies/evidence that younger people are being hospitalized/intubated/dying more, apart from just hearsay and anecdotes? How do they affect the IFR for younger people?”

The variants have no different behavior than do the ancestral viruses. They are simply in the right place at the right time.

Some notable responses from the Reddit, above.

Edited by Penelope
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43 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

The interesting thing with AstraZeneca is that it was clear they were messing with their data. I think I said something like "I don't really trust them" before this blood clot stuff came out. And that's because they were clearly not honest with their numbers!! Remember we had this conversation, @Corraleno

Well, it wasn't clear to me. The onus shouldn't be on each individual to stay on top of the data, not least because plenty of people don't have the skills to do so. 

 

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6 minutes ago, Penelope said:

Please stop saying the variants are more contagious/virulent. 

But he isn't saying that they aren't CURRENTLY more contagious. He's saying that the reason they are more contagious is because lots of people have immunity to the other strains. Which is probably true, but observationally, right now the variants are more contagious... it's just they may not be if the population had no exposure to any of them. 

 

8 minutes ago, Penelope said:

Michael Osterholm, Peter Hotez, all the people on mainstream media and especially The NY Times which has made a mess of the pandemic.

Yowza. That makes me wonder what kind of person he is. It is VERY combative to say stuff like that. People who are willing to say stuff like this out loud are not usually the easiest... 

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Just now, Melissa Louise said:

Well, it wasn't clear to me. The onus shouldn't be on each individual to stay on top of the data, not least because plenty of people don't have the skills to do so. 

Oh, I wasn't saying that! And I would also imagine that overall, you should be happy to be vaccinated if you didn't have a side effect? I mean, it does make you immune to COVID, and the time for the side effect has passed, right? 

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9 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Oh, I wasn't saying that! And I would also imagine that overall, you should be happy to be vaccinated if you didn't have a side effect? I mean, it does make you immune to COVID, and the time for the side effect has passed, right? 

No, not yet. Another week to go. 

In general, my trust in the approvals process has weakened, and I have less trust in efficacy against variants. 

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10 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Oh, I wasn't saying that! And I would also imagine that overall, you should be happy to be vaccinated if you didn't have a side effect? I mean, it does make you immune to COVID, and the time for the side effect has passed, right? 

The side effect shows up between 4 and 20 days so I imagine Melissa will be feeling a little stressed during the waiting period.

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4 minutes ago, Melissa Louise said:

No, not yet. Another week to go. 

In general, my trust in the approvals process has weakened, and I have less trust in efficacy against variants. 

Fingers crossed it doesn't show up. At least you'll know what to look for? 😞 

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5 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Fingers crossed it doesn't show up. At least you'll know what to look for? 😞 

Yes, which was info NOT included on the post-vaccine fact sheet given out. I'm not worried for myself; I just don't like government incompetence.

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1 minute ago, Melissa Louise said:

Yes, which was info NOT included on the post-vaccine fact sheet given out. I'm not worried for myself; I just don't like government incompetence.

This is a rare side-effect and a new vaccine... I've had a lot of issues with government incompetence in the past year, but I'm not sure I think this one is that egregious -- just deeply unfortunate.

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41 minutes ago, kand said:

What does he give as the reason that the vaccines have been less effective against some of the newer variants? If T cells are going to save us, why didn’t they? Or is he only looking at death as an outcome? 

That is my impression — basically he feels like as long as the vaccines result in t-cell response, they will still prevent most deaths. 

However "qualified" he may be, I'm seriously suspicious of any scientist claiming that everyone else is wrong, the research in scientific journals is "garbage," and people should ignore all those scientific papers and believe what he tells them in a reddit thread.

I will relink here four major studies, in Science, Nature, and the British Medical Journal, showing that B117 is both more contagious and more deadly. I don't understand how someone can dismiss these peer-reviewed studies, by scientists who are just as qualified as he is, as garbage and insist that it's totally coincidental that India and much of Europe are seeing big spikes as B117 takes hold. 

Large, matched cohort study published last month in BMJ found 64% higher death rate in those infected with B117:
https://www.bmj.com/content/372/bmj.n579.short

Separate study published in Nature showing 61% higher risk of death with B117:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03426-1

Study published in Science last month showing B117 is 43-90% more transmissible:
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/early/2021/03/03/science.abg3055

Study published in Nature showing B117 is 50-100% more transmissible:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-021-03470-x

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2 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

The interesting thing with AstraZeneca is that it was clear they were messing with their data. I think I said something like "I don't really trust them" before this blood clot stuff came out. And that's because they were clearly not honest with their numbers!! Remember we had this conversation, @Corraleno

Just be careful though. It kind of bothers me to hear this kind of stuff when some of us have family etc that have had that vaccine and some have had it themselves. You are really just speculating.

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19 minutes ago, TCB said:

Just be careful though. It kind of bothers me to hear this kind of stuff when some of us have family etc that have had that vaccine and some have had it themselves. You are really just speculating.

Speculating about what? I'm not sure what you mean. There seems to be a very rare side effect of AstraZeneca that it's possible they weren't transparent about. It is so rare that I expect no one I know to be hurt by it, but I stand by my assessment that they were irresponsible with their data. 

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29 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

However "qualified" he may be, I'm seriously suspicious of any scientist claiming that everyone else is wrong, the research in scientific journals is "garbage," and people should ignore all those scientific papers and believe what he tells them in a reddit thread.

Right, that makes me suspicious. If you're going to tell people that everyone else is an idiot, you're going to have to give some kind of reasoned argument, not just claim it. 

He sounds like he certainly knows what he's talking about when it comes to viruses, but being an expert in virology doesn't necessarily make him better at statistics. So I'd really need to hear more. 

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4 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Speculating about what? I'm not sure what you mean. There seems to be a very rare side effect of AstraZeneca that it's possible they weren't transparent about. It is so rare that I expect no one I know to be hurt by it, but I stand by my assessment that they were irresponsible with their data. 

I think it is a leap to think they weren’t transparent about this possible side effect. It is so rare, if it is caused by it, that it was probably only apparent once millions of vaccines were given.

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3 minutes ago, TCB said:

I think it is a leap to think they weren’t transparent about this possible side effect. It is so rare, if it is caused by it, that it was probably only apparent once millions of vaccines were given.

You're right that it's a leap. But I really prefer people to be honest with me about their data if I'm going to trust them with a new kind of vaccine. And they really did shade their data a surprising amount. It wouldn't surprise me if that also meant they weren't as careful as possible exploring possible adverse effects. 

It's possible it's just bad luck, of course. 

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3 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

But he isn't saying that they aren't CURRENTLY more contagious. He's saying that the reason they are more contagious is because lots of people have immunity to the other strains. Which is probably true, but observationally, right now the variants are more contagious... it's just they may not be if the population had no exposure to any of them. 

 

Yowza. That makes me wonder what kind of person he is. It is VERY combative to say stuff like that. People who are willing to say stuff like this out loud are not usually the easiest... 

Only quoting you here, but responding to all the posts on the Reddit quotes.

You all can go up and read the whole thing; someone else kindly linked it. I did pull out the more inflammatory remarks because I was surprised at the level of candor. 😅 I have to think the Peter Hotez mention was in the wrong category. They had him on as a guest, I thought they were friends. 
 

He is openly cranky. I think that context is needed. I share his disdain for a lot of the mainstream reporting, because I can see how much they get wrong or overstate just from the little I know. I imagine the people who have expertise and are trying to communicate more carefully about the science in their area of expertise are frustrated when people who are the “expert” in some other domain say all sorts of things that aren’t quite correct. Public health people complain about this, immunologists do, and doctors, etc., when people in the media spout off about things they do not really understand, or when reporters don’t understand and get things wrong. And there’s been a lot of it. I mean, when someone who is a non-clinician epidemiologist is going on about long Covid and the effects on the organs, for example, lacking any medical knowledge, that isn’t the best source. And when an epidemiologist who is not a virologist talks about the transmissibility of a variant, they are working outside of their wheelhouse. 

I’m sure some of you have different areas where you know a little or a lot more than average (not because you can Google a paper or read about something,  but some non-Covid thing, from pre-pandemic schooling or life) and you’ll read or hear something and think, well... kind of... or that it’s partly right, but not really. I think it’s like that, but a more curmudgeonly response. 😅

I think the thing with B117 and transmissibility is being a stickler for correct terminology, and being a stickler for science to be able to use certain terminology, because what he’s saying is that the experiments to prove that property that is meant by transmissibility, have NOT been done. He’s not the only one, so there’s that. I think the difference in science is the use of the word “likely”, or however they would characterize the likelihood, gets translated to the public as, its a 100% established fact.

 

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