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The Vaccine Thread


JennyD

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I actually think it’s pretty rational to get back to normal life if vaccinated!!! Yeah, it can knock you on your butt, but so can the flu. Life is a scary and unpredictable place in general. What I was personally avoiding was something that felt an order of magnitude scarier than other things I did. 

Plus, at this point I’m not worried about passing it around nearly as much, given that people can get vaccinated. 

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15 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I actually think it’s pretty rational to get back to normal life if vaccinated!!! Yeah, it can knock you on your butt, but so can the flu. Life is a scary and unpredictable place in general. What I was personally avoiding was something that felt an order of magnitude scarier than other things I did. 

Plus, at this point I’m not worried about passing it around nearly as much, given that people can get vaccinated. 

Unfortunately, we know COVID-19 can have serious consequences even if the initial infection wasn't that bad (the 11.5% chance of new cardiovascular/psychiatric issue within 6 months of non-hospitalised known positive COVID didn't differentiate by vaccine and it will be a while before a version of the study that does becomes feasible). This still is an order of magnitude bigger threat than other things most people do until shown otherwise.

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Just now, mommyoffive said:

That is interesting, as it implies Moderna starts to wear off at some point between 8 and 12 months (8 months was the average for the "control" the "twice as likely" is being compared to). Subject to any potential issues with the study itself. This is a lot longer than Pfizer and somewhat longer than OxfordAstrazeneca.

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2 hours ago, TexasProud said:

I was so incredibly angry at this post. Didn't have time to respond yesterday as I had a paper due. Sorry. Guess I am one of the thousands of people who feel duped and betrayed.  AND THIS IS A JAWM. Please, please, please don't tell me again how stupid I am and how bad my education was or whatever. 

I had the idea I would get the vaccine and I could live a normal life. I WANT A NORMAL LIFE.  I don't care if it is better than nothing. I don't care whether they lied or whether they didn't. Fact is, I want normalcy and expected the vaccine to give it to me.  Now, because I am taking care of my dying mom, ( thought it may take years...don't know yet), I will be isolated for the forseeable future. I am mad and disappointed. Before Covid, in this situation, I would not have stopped my normal interactions. Because of Covid I have to. I thought the vaccine would prevent it.

I guess I am just stupid and gullible that I didn't understand it.  I guess I still would have gotten it, but I wouldn't have gotten my hopes up that I could have a life again. I may never have it back.  AGAIN. I cannot handle you telling me what else did I expect. How stupid I was for not understanding the science.  I am dumb, what  can I say.

You’re not stupid.  It’s complicated science.  
Frankly, this really was the messaging people were getting.  I gave hundreds, maybe even a thousand, vaccines.  People were so excited because they had been told it was our ticket back to a normal life.  The pamphlets we handed out definitely led people to believe that.  I think people needed optimism and the messaging was too optimistic, probably to convince people to get vaccinated.

My mom is vaccine hesitant for herself but is currently interviewing personal care aides for my grandmother and is insistent that they be vaccinated.  She has this idea that natural immunity is preferable.  I finally told her last night that even if she got vaccinated, she’ll still probably get Covid anyway.  She isn’t dumb, but the messaging, even subtly, was persistent that it was going to prevent Covid altogether, when it should have been preventing serious Covid.

Also, the vast majority of vaccines do prevent illnesses for most people.  Measles, mumps, rubella, tetnus—so when we hear vaccine, that’s what we think.  It should have been equated to the flu vaccine.

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27 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I actually think it’s pretty rational to get back to normal life if vaccinated!!! Yeah, it can knock you on your butt, but so can the flu. Life is a scary and unpredictable place in general. What I was personally avoiding was something that felt an order of magnitude scarier than other things I did. 

Plus, at this point I’m not worried about passing it around nearly as much, given that people can get vaccinated. 

The consequences of a Covid infection are still a magnitude scarier to me than anything else. I have a vaccinated friend with long Covid. I don't wish that on anyone. 

I am still concerned about passing it on, since vaccination protection is not 100 percent, and the immune response is less strong in older folks who are more vulnerable. 

I am working a high exposure job, surrounded by a community where 60% are unvaccinated, with a positivity rate of 30%. That colors my risk assessment. 

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3 minutes ago, regentrude said:

The consequences of a Covid infection are still a magnitude scarier to me than anything else. I have a vaccinated friend with long Covid. I don't wish that on anyone. 
 

Ugh. Say more. I do worry a lot about long COVID, frankly, so if the chance of that is not low, that concerns me.

When had she been vaccinated and with which vaccine?
 

3 minutes ago, regentrude said:

I am still concerned about passing it on, since vaccination protection is not 100 percent, and the immune response is less strong in older folks who are more vulnerable. 

I know, but I also don’t know how long we can live like this for…

 

3 minutes ago, regentrude said:

I am working a high exposure job, surrounded by a community where 60% are unvaccinated, with a positivity rate of 30%. That colors my risk assessment. 

Yeah, that’s a different situation.

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18 minutes ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

Unfortunately, we know COVID-19 can have serious consequences even if the initial infection wasn't that bad (the 11.5% chance of new cardiovascular/psychiatric issue within 6 months of non-hospitalised known positive COVID didn't differentiate by vaccine and it will be a while before a version of the study that does becomes feasible). This still is an order of magnitude bigger threat than other things most people do until shown otherwise.

I suppose I’m hoping that post-vaccine, all the risks shrink.

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43 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I actually think it’s pretty rational to get back to normal life if vaccinated!!! Yeah, it can knock you on your butt, but so can the flu. Life is a scary and unpredictable place in general. What I was personally avoiding was something that felt an order of magnitude scarier than other things I did. 

Plus, at this point I’m not worried about passing it around nearly as much, given that people can get vaccinated. 

Right, but her mom is elderly, has health issues, etc so the vaccine is not as protective, and if she starts cancer treatment may be truly at risk. For her, going back to normal means potentially exposing her mom. I think it is absolutely understandable and rational why she feels she can't go back to high exposure things like singing in the choir, and understandable why she is upset by this. 

When someone is understandably upset and grieving and angry, hearing over and over "well, I am happy and back to normal" is probably not helpful. 

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Just now, ktgrok said:

Right, but her mom is elderly, has health issues, etc so the vaccine is not as protective, and if she starts cancer treatment may be truly at risk. For her, going back to normal means potentially exposing her mom. I think it is absolutely understandable and rational why she feels she can't go back to high exposure things like singing in the choir, and understandable why she is upset by this. 

When someone is understandably upset and grieving and angry, hearing over and over "well, I am happy and back to normal" is probably not helpful. 

I’m not happy and back to normal, lol. We’re totally hiding out because the kids aren’t vaxxed and because I want a booster.

But I do think that if she gets a booster when eligible, and when cases go down a bit, it’d be rational to go back to normal life. 

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Just now, Not_a_Number said:

I’m not happy and back to normal, lol. We’re totally hiding out because the kids aren’t vaxxed and because I want a booster.

But I do think that if she gets a booster when eligible, and when cases go down a bit, it’d be rational to go back to normal life. 

Right, but that's not NOW. She's in a horrid hot spot with cases out of control, not boostered, and having to help her mom who is dealing with metastatic cancer. Right now, she feels (rightly) that she can't go back to normal without risking her mother's life, and is upset by that. 

To reply back that going back to normal is rational probably feels like a slap in the face, or at least pretty dismissive. Because, for her, in her situation, it is NOT rational to go back to normal. And even you, with no cancer patient to care for, and with positivity a 10th of what she is dealing with, are not back to normal. So I'm not getting where 'back to normal" is rational? I mean...that's just not true, nor is it helpful to say, in her situation, you know?

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48 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I actually think it’s pretty rational to get back to normal life if vaccinated!!! Yeah, it can knock you on your butt, but so can the flu. Life is a scary and unpredictable place in general. What I was personally avoiding was something that felt an order of magnitude scarier than other things I did.

Yes. From everything I'm reading the risk of getting Covid for a fully vaccinated person is about the same risk we have anytime we get in our car and drive somewhere. So . . I jump in the car to go grocery shopping w/o giving my risk of being in an accident a single thought. I could be in a minor fender bender (the equivalent of asymptomatic Covid or a "Covid cold") or I could be in a horrible accident that lands me in the ICU for a long time, or kills me (the equivalent of really bad Covid). Or I could be in an accident that leaves me permanently disabled (perhaps the equivalent of long Covid). But in any event -- the possibility of a bad car accident isn't a great enough risk that it keeps me from doing things that I need or really want to go and do.

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14 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Ugh. Say more. I do worry a lot about long COVID, frankly, so if the chance of that is not low, that concerns me. When had she been vaccinated and with which vaccine?

I don't know. Some time this spring. She had Covid already last summer and was ill for several weeks. Now she's over a month past initial infection and needs a multi-hour nap after going to the mailbox. Was planning to move and had to cancel the lease because she's too weak.
This scares the crap out of me and makes it worth, to me, avoiding high risk situations like live performances in crowded indoor spaces full of unmasked people.

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28 minutes ago, Mrs Tiggywinkle said:

Also, the vast majority of vaccines do prevent illnesses for most people.  Measles, mumps, rubella, tetnus—so when we hear vaccine, that’s what we think.  It should have been equated to the flu vaccine.

Unfortunately, many people don't get the flu vaccine as it's perceived as not effectual enough to be worth the risks 😞 (I've been hospitalised with the flu vaccine, as has someone else in my social circle. If it had been billed as being like the flu vaccine, I probably would have skipped the vaccine due to equating it with a guaranteed hospital visit, and the other person definitely would have done so).

I was told recently the risk of COVID if vaccinated was like being a passenger in a car. Well, I'm careful who I ride with due to bad past experiences too...

Edited by ieta_cassiopeia
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20 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

Yes. From everything I'm reading the risk of getting Covid for a fully vaccinated person is about the same risk we have anytime we get in our car and drive somewhere

But that risk is an average over many people with very different behaviors. Most of us still take precautions to lower our personal driving risk: wear seat belts, don't text, don't drive intoxicated. Some people are even more careful and avoid driving overtired or in heavy rain.

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25 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I’m not happy and back to normal, lol. We’re totally hiding out because the kids aren’t vaxxed and because I want a booster.

But I do think that if she gets a booster when eligible, and when cases go down a bit, it’d be rational to go back to normal life. 

Normal up to a point, yes.  Or assuming every individual your family interacts with is successfully vaccinated.

For many of us, we have loved ones who can't or won't be successfully vaccinated.  And no, we do not write off such people because they may think differently than we do.  I never wrote off my loved ones who smoke(d) or overeat/overate either.  I have watched them die.  But I haven't had to worry about being the trigger that caused their deaths.

So anyhoo.  My kids live as normal a life as they can, without interacting with elderly or at-risk people.  As for me, being an introvert, the only thing I really hate is not being able to see my folks without the fear of killing them.

If it weren't for Delta, I'd be less cautious.  Hopefully we'll eventually get to that point again.

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3 hours ago, TexasProud said:

I was so incredibly angry at this post. Didn't have time to respond yesterday as I had a paper due. Sorry. Guess I am one of the thousands of people who feel duped and betrayed.  AND THIS IS A JAWM. Please, please, please don't tell me again how stupid I am and how bad my education was or whatever. 

I had the idea I would get the vaccine and I could live a normal life. I WANT A NORMAL LIFE.  I don't care if it is better than nothing. I don't care whether they lied or whether they didn't. Fact is, I want normalcy and expected the vaccine to give it to me.  Now, because I am taking care of my dying mom, ( thought it may take years...don't know yet), I will be isolated for the forseeable future. I am mad and disappointed. Before Covid, in this situation, I would not have stopped my normal interactions. Because of Covid I have to. I thought the vaccine would prevent it.

I guess I am just stupid and gullible that I didn't understand it.  I guess I still would have gotten it, but I wouldn't have gotten my hopes up that I could have a life again. I may never have it back.  AGAIN. I cannot handle you telling me what else did I expect. How stupid I was for not understanding the science.  I am dumb, what  can I say.

I am sorry that you are stuck in this terrible situation. 😥 It is for people like you that I am angry and frustrated. People spreading lies and misinformation are what is overwhelming our hospitals and putting you and your mom more at risk. It is disappointing and I'm disappointed alongside of you. 

If you aren't actively trying to get people to not vaccinate then you aren't the target. We all don't know a lot of things. No human can be an expert at everything so you should not feel bad. I know nothing about the politics of Liberia, zip, zero. That doesn't mean I'm stupid.

The problem comes when people start arguing and spreading misinformation because  they don't understand something. Then they are hurting people like you and your mom and that makes me angry. 

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7 minutes ago, SKL said:

Why didn't Pfizer and Moderna know before this that the vaxes would wear off?  Haven't they been studying it for over a year now?

The EUAs were granted well before the year was done, and it was only under Delta that there was enough wear for a loss of performance to become apparent. Also, the original idea was to vaccinate fast enough to beat the vaccine-escaping mutation (which would have rendered the whole question moot). It turns out that this is a trouble once partial vaccine escape (which Delta is known to do) enters the picture; it can be difficult to differentiate between the partial vaccine escape and potential waning of immunity.

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5 minutes ago, SKL said:

Normal up to a point, yes.  Or assuming every individual your family interacts with is successfully vaccinated.

For many of us, we have loved ones who can't or won't be successfully vaccinated.  And no, we do not write off such people because they may think differently than we do.  I never wrote off my loved ones who smoke(d) or overeat/overate either.  I have watched them die.  But I haven't had to worry about being the trigger that caused their deaths.

So anyhoo.  My kids live as normal a life as they can, without interacting with elderly or at-risk people.  As for me, being an introvert, the only thing I really hate is not being able to see my folks without the fear of killing them.

If it weren't for Delta, I'd be less cautious.  Hopefully we'll eventually get to that point again.

It sucks that you don’t feel safe seeing your folks. If they are not vaxxed, would they be willing to mask with an N95? Just to humor you? Outside? I’m sure you’ve already looked at those options. It just stinks to hear that you still feel you can’t see them.

FWIW, I do see our elderly, ill parents. I mask. They may or may not mask (due to illness), but they are at least vaccinated. That’s the best I can do, and CDC/their docs say it’s fine. I get it if you aren’t comfortable with that, though.

I have a new appreciation for the effects of masking, after spending seven hours with a coughing, vomiting, unmasked positive woman within four - ten feet. She was not masked, but mine worked. I’m negative.

Also, you said something about quarantining when vaccinated. If vaxxed, you don’t need to quarantine, though I think CDC rec is that you test at 3-5 days and mask indoors for 14. I did recently quarantine after my exposure, but it was to protect a vulnerable, high risk, unvaxxed loved one. Plus, my exposure was … intense. Everyone in your household is vaxxed, so not the same worry. 

 

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1 minute ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

The EUAs were granted well before the year was done, and it was only under Delta that there was enough wear for a loss of performance to become apparent. Also, the original idea was to vaccinate fast enough to beat the vaccine-escaping mutation (which would have rendered the whole question moot). It turns out that this is a trouble once partial vaccine escape (which Delta is known to do) enters the picture; it can be difficult to differentiate between the partial vaccine escape and potential waning of immunity.

I'm not just talking since the EUAs, I'm talking since they started studying the vaxes in order to get to the EUA.  There's been plenty of time for it to become apparent that effectiveness wanes - if they were looking, which they should have been.  I mean, now, we're told we are idiots if we didn't expect effectiveness to wane by 8mos.  Well if I'm an idiot, what does that say about the specialists whose life work is to study and report on these things?

Or did they actually know about this and choose not to inform people?

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3 hours ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

A single dose of vaccine also generates antibodies, which is how the UK is on 92% of the population with antibodies. For comparison, that's about the same proportion who have antibodies against measles in the UK (almost all of which is through vaccination).

 

Either its not the same antibodies as the disease or my vaccine did nothing

I've given blood several times since being vaccinated (Twice) and they used to test for antibodies (up until the end of July) and those never showed up for me.

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2 minutes ago, SKL said:

I'm not just talking since the EUAs, I'm talking since they started studying the vaxes in order to get to the EUA.  There's been plenty of time for it to become apparent that effectiveness wanes - if they were looking, which they should have been.  I mean, now, we're told we are idiots if we didn't expect effectiveness to wane by 8mos.  Well if I'm an idiot, what does that say about the specialists whose life work is to study and report on these things?

Or did they actually know about this and choose not to inform people?

Both delta and the large waves that followed changed the data and trajectory.  When it's not circulating in high numbers, waning efficacy is much less of an apparent issue.

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4 minutes ago, Spryte said:

It sucks that you don’t feel safe seeing your folks. If they are not vaxxed, would they be willing to mask with an N95? Just to humor you? Outside? I’m sure you’ve already looked at those options. It just stinks to hear that you still feel you can’t see them.

FWIW, I do see our elderly, ill parents. I mask. They may or may not mask (due to illness), but they are at least vaccinated. That’s the best I can do, and CDC/their docs say it’s fine. I get it if you aren’t comfortable with that, though.

I have a new appreciation for the effects of masking, after spending seven hours with a coughing, vomiting, unmasked positive woman within four - ten feet. She was not masked, but mine worked. I’m negative.

Also, you said something about quarantining when vaccinated. If vaxxed, you don’t need to quarantine, though I think CDC rec is that you test at 3-5 days and mask indoors for 14. I did recently quarantine after my exposure, but it was to protect a vulnerable, high risk, unvaxxed loved one. Plus, my exposure was … intense. Everyone in your household is vaxxed, so not the same worry.

I know we don't need to quarantine, but certain pockets of public opinion (including on this board) believe differently.  Who knows what the CDC will say tomorrow or the next day.

[As an aside about the unmasked positive woman, to be fair, it would not be realistic for her to mask if she was coughing and vomiting.  Sorry you went through that though.  And I'm glad you are negative.  Is your mom also negative?]

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13 minutes ago, FuzzyCatz said:

Both delta and the large waves that followed changed the data and trajectory.  When it's not circulating in high numbers, waning efficacy is much less of an apparent issue.

It was still circulating in pretty high numbers until May or June of 2021.

[sorry I previously typed 2020 ... typo]

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4 minutes ago, SKL said:

It was still circulating in pretty high numbers until May or June of 2020.

I'm not sure the vaccine was far enough along to really know anything that early in the pandemic. It's still a miracle we HAVE A vaccine (And multiple. I'm still hoping Novavax will be approved in the US)

 

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3 minutes ago, FuzzyCatz said:

Well that also wasn't delta.  

Our local numbers in May/June weren't anywhere near infection levels in Dec-Feb.  Or like Florida's in August. 

I'm not talking about Delta, I'm talking about waning effectiveness, which is a different issue.

Are you saying testing/study of a vax is not possible unless the case rates are like they were last winter?  If that was the case then how did they develop the vax in the first place?  There was enough information if they were looking for it.

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6 minutes ago, vonfirmath said:

I'm not sure the vaccine was far enough along to really know anything that early in the pandemic. It's still a miracle we HAVE A vaccine (And multiple. I'm still hoping Novavax will be approved in the US)

 

Sorry I meant 2021.  Off to edit.

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1 hour ago, ktgrok said:

Right, but that's not NOW. She's in a horrid hot spot with cases out of control, not boostered, and having to help her mom who is dealing with metastatic cancer. Right now, she feels (rightly) that she can't go back to normal without risking her mother's life, and is upset by that. 

To reply back that going back to normal is rational probably feels like a slap in the face, or at least pretty dismissive. Because, for her, in her situation, it is NOT rational to go back to normal. And even you, with no cancer patient to care for, and with positivity a 10th of what she is dealing with, are not back to normal. So I'm not getting where 'back to normal" is rational? I mean...that's just not true, nor is it helpful to say, in her situation, you know?

I have no clue. Is it irrational? I think she should get a booster ASAP and then take care of her mental health, because it does matter. We aren’t going to be able to get risk to anywhere near zero. We just aren’t.

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12 minutes ago, SKL said:

I'm not talking about Delta, I'm talking about waning effectiveness, which is a different issue.

Are you saying testing/study of a vax is not possible unless the case rates are like they were last winter?  If that was the case then how did they develop the vax in the first place?  There was enough information if they were looking for it.

Well viral levels are MUCH higher with delta which does seem to make a difference.  So yes, I think they were studying it all along but I can also see why this became really apparent when Delta changed the trajectory.  Part of what makes vaccines affect is just getting infection rates down.  Like any numbers of us right now could be walking around vulnerable to polio, but it's not circulating widely so it's not going to be an issue for most of us.  

I absolutely agree we should be studying  and collecting and analyzing more data on the regular.  We are relying on other countries some that are doing a  much better job that this.   But that is a science funding issue.  

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8 minutes ago, FuzzyCatz said:

Well viral levels are MUCH higher with delta which does seem to make a difference.  So yes, I think they were studying it all along but I can also see why this became really apparent when Delta changed the trajectory.  Part of what makes vaccines affect is just getting infection rates down.  Like any numbers of us right now could be walking around vulnerable to polio, but it's not circulating widely so it's not going to be an issue for most of us.  

I absolutely agree we should be studying  and collecting and analyzing more data on the regular.  We are relying on other countries some that are doing a  much better job that this.   But that is a science funding issue.  

1) I'm not sure who you mean by "we" when you say we should be studying etc.  The makers and marketers of these vaxes, and those in public health recommending them, should be doing this.  Was/is this not an actual requirement to get FDA approval?

2) There isn't money for this?  How much money have Pfizer and Moderna recieved between the funding of the study and the selling of the vaxes?

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22 minutes ago, SKL said:

I know we don't need to quarantine, but certain pockets of public opinion (including on this board) believe differently.  Who knows what the CDC will say tomorrow or the next day.

[As an aside about the unmasked positive woman, to be fair, it would not be realistic for her to mask if she was coughing and vomiting.  Sorry you went through that though.  And I'm glad you are negative.  Is your mom also negative?]

Oh, absolutely, the sick woman could not possibly have masked. I think most of us felt only sympathy for her, no anger or frustration at her for not masking. The hospital could have separated her, perhaps, but there was nowhere to put her - the Covid waiting room had overflowed. It was chaos.

My mom is tested daily - still negative. Whew.

It gives me more faith in masking, that’s for sure. She and I both had on N95s, which we wore because we knew we might encounter Covid patients. Her masking wasn’t perfect - she pulled it out a few times (she was in pain, understandable).

I would have followed CDC guidelines to the letter, if not for unvaxxed DD. And the modified quarantine was primarily at home, to protect her. I still had to go to the hospital daily - I spoke to the docs and they okayed it first, based on CDC guidelines. Masked and hand sanitized, but still daily trips to the hospital despite the exposure. I just figured that everyone I encounter there had had the opportunity to get vaxxed, unlike DD.

Sharing all that about the quarantine because I don’t want anyone thinking that I’d expect that from anyone else. I did it for my DD, who has health issues and isn’t vaxxed yet. If the whole family was vaccinated, my actions would be different, and I don’t expect anyone else to do more than follow the CDC guidelines. No judgment here.

 

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44 minutes ago, SKL said:

I know we don't need to quarantine, but certain pockets of public opinion (including on this board) believe differently.  Who knows what the CDC will say tomorrow or the next day.

The recommendations are not solely based on science but also on practicability.

As a vaccinated person, I can still infect another person. The probability is smaller. The CDC guidelines reflect that it may not be practical to require quarantine if balanced against the risk.
That does not mean an individual may not come to a different conclusion for their individual behavior, weighing the inconvenience of quarantine against the risk to a vulnerable person.

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4 hours ago, ieta_cassiopeia said:

The NHS does, because being able to use natural infection saves it a lot of money it can use elsewhere. Especially if this turns out to be something requiring several vaccinations - if natural infection turns out to be something the NHS can treat as equivalent to one of those doses, then it could potentially save a lot of money each time there is a new wave.

 

Which may explain why natural immunity has already been studied, and why it has been found a significant number of people who had natural immunity revert to non-immune even within the 6-month period the NHS currently considers "immune" for COVID app purposes. Even Israel managed to get vaccines to go 6 months before losing immunity, and that was with spacing that would now be considered too close for optimal protection.

I do wonder if having mRNA for dose 1 (more effective in the short term) and something like OxfordAstrazeneca for dose 2 (early signs of being more effective in the medium term), 8-16 weeks apart, might turn out to be optimal for someone who's not had an infection (with the potential to skip one of the doses if an infection occurred in the appropriate window)? That's going to take quite a bit of research.

A single dose of vaccine also generates antibodies, which is how the UK is on 92% of the population with antibodies. For comparison, that's about the same proportion who have antibodies against measles in the UK (almost all of which is through vaccination).

 

 

I think a lot of people heard "95% protection", "62/70/90% protection" and "66% protection" and assumed those headline figures were going to hold, based on their knowledge of stable viruses (or of percentages that are meant to hold until the next scheduled dose, in the case of flu). The concepts of waning immunity and vaccine evasion aren't taught in practical terms to most people until times like this, only maybe covered in the midst of a bunch of theory in high school-equivalent biology class.

It's rather hard to consider the possibility of waning immunity when it's only presented as a thing that happens in practise after immunity starts waning... (I get the feeling the journalists weren't told it was a practical risk rather than a theoretical one either, because not even the usually-responsible ones mentioned it).

And for the record, I had believed that places like the UK and USA could vaccinate hard enough and fast enough to at least create bubbles of safety within those countries (that would work much like New Zealand, where most of the time, most aspects of life are normal) while arrangements were made to vaccinate everywhere else.

Yes, I can see how one could just assume that it is like the other vaccinations they received as a child.

 

I heard a lot about depends on "waning immunity", "rate of mutations", "more like flu vaccine" when I was reading but there is still a human bias to hope for the best which I suppose makes us forget. 

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1 hour ago, SKL said:

I'm not talking about Delta, I'm talking about waning effectiveness, which is a different issue.

 

But it is related. You need higher effectiveness against Delta, because there is a higher viral load in most people - if multplies faster to outrun the immune system and is more contagious. So for Delta, you need a vaccine that is more effective than you need against Alpha or the original Covid. So the level of effectiveness we have at say, 8 months, is likely plenty if we were dealing with Alpha still. But against Delta, it isn't always enough. 

1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

I have no clue. Is it irrational? I think she should get a booster ASAP and then take care of her mental health, because it does matter. We aren’t going to be able to get risk to anywhere near zero. We just aren’t.

But she doesn't know if and when she can get a booster. And giving Covid to her mom would not help her mental health, I don't think. So until she either isn't careing for her mom, or has a booster and her mom has one, or something else changes, it makes absolute sense that she's being cautious in order to avoid giving it to her mother. 

Given that you yourself are not back to normal and don't have an ill family member to care for and are living in an area where there is very little spread, I can't show how you think it would make sense for her, who has an ill, elderly family member, and lives in a disaster of a hot spot, to go back to normal. 

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2 hours ago, SKL said:

I'm not just talking since the EUAs, I'm talking since they started studying the vaxes in order to get to the EUA.  There's been plenty of time for it to become apparent that effectiveness wanes - if they were looking, which they should have been.  I mean, now, we're told we are idiots if we didn't expect effectiveness to wane by 8mos.  Well if I'm an idiot, what does that say about the specialists whose life work is to study and report on these things?

Or did they actually know about this and choose not to inform people?

Phase 3 vaccine trials for both Pfizer and Moderna began at the end of July, and they started booster trials in late February (Pfizer) and early March (Moderna), roughly seven months from the start of the original trials. How could they have data on waning immunity before immunity started to wane? The possibility of needing boosters has been widely reported on since February.

Edited by Corraleno
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Here's a news story from January, less than month after the vaccines began rolling out in the US, in which an infectious disease specialist explicitly says that immunity "may last longer than a year, but it’s unlikely to be permanent the way two doses of measles vaccine is. So at some point, it’s likely that we will need to boost people, but we don’t know how frequently that will need to be.”

https://www.abc4.com/coronavirus/will-i-need-to-get-the-covid-19-vaccine-annually-like-the-flu-shot/

Article from February stating that the NHS plans for annual covid boosters shots:

https://www.ft.com/content/26b256d0-d021-46ac-ae3d-e3ea823c033d

In April both Pfizer and Moderna stated explicitly that boosters would be needed:

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla: "There are vaccines like polio that one dose is enough, there are vaccines like pneumococcal vaccine that one dose is enough for adults, and there are vaccines like flu that you need every year. The COVID virus looks more like the influenza virus than the polio virus."

Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel: "I hope this summer to get the vaccine authorized for a boost so that we can help people getting boosted before the fall, so that we all have a normal fall and not a fall and winter like we just saw in the last 6 months."

This information was out there and was widely covered in the media. "I wasn't aware of that" does not equal "I was lied to."

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17 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Here's a news story from January, less than month after the vaccines began rolling out in the US, in which an infectious disease specialist explicitly says that immunity "may last longer than a year, but it’s unlikely to be permanent the way two doses of measles vaccine is. So at some point, it’s likely that we will need to boost people, but we don’t know how frequently that will need to be.”

https://www.abc4.com/coronavirus/will-i-need-to-get-the-covid-19-vaccine-annually-like-the-flu-shot/

Article from February stating that the NHS plans for annual covid boosters shots:

https://www.ft.com/content/26b256d0-d021-46ac-ae3d-e3ea823c033d

In April both Pfizer and Moderna stated explicitly that boosters would be needed:

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla: "There are vaccines like polio that one dose is enough, there are vaccines like pneumococcal vaccine that one dose is enough for adults, and there are vaccines like flu that you need every year. The COVID virus looks more like the influenza virus than the polio virus."

Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel: "I hope this summer to get the vaccine authorized for a boost so that we can help people getting boosted before the fall, so that we all have a normal fall and not a fall and winter like we just saw in the last 6 months."

This information was out there and was widely covered in the media. "I wasn't aware of that" does not equal "I was lied to."

The January link was some dudes in Utah musing about whether or not this will be like the flu or not ... and they said it will not, but they didn't know much else.  (The flu shot is different every year to address different flu strains, as most of us know.  That is not what they are discussing re a mRNA booster.)

The February link is behind a paywall, and it's not a US article.

As for the Pfizer quote you pasted, they are now saying it's like the flu?  Then why use the exact same vax to boost it almost a year later?

And the Moderna quote you pasted implies it's not like the flu since the booster would be the same as the original vax.

And there were/are plenty of other messages declaring that the vax would almost certainly last longer than natural antibodies, and that there was/is no reason to believe boosters would be appropriate for most people.

This asks a lot of lay people who are/were thinking:

  • They change the message every single day.  I'm going to stop listening to all this noise.
  • Of course the manufacturers want us to get boosters - they make more money that way.  What's the evidence for boosters and has it been reviewed by disinterested parties?  (I actually think a lot of responsible policy makers are also thinking that right now.)
  • Why get the vax in the spring, if effectiveness will go down before the really bad season hits?  (Before Delta was rampant in the US, summer was supposed to have low case rates.)
  • I told you this vax was BS.  First it was one shot, then two, then annually, now every 8 months - do you really think this is ever going to end?  Didn't I tell you so?

Ultimately, if the case were strong for boosters across the board, there should have been plenty of highly convincing evidence long before now.  I can't blame folks who doubt the accountability / transparency of the manufacturers.

(FTR I didn't say I've been lied to, but I can understand why people feel a lack of trust in this matter.)

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1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

 

This information was out there and was widely covered in the media. "I wasn't aware of that" does not equal "I was lied to."

You probably need to say that louder to make sure the people in the back really hear it. ETA: And probably also add in "I didn't understand that" does not equal "I was lied to."

Edited by Pawz4me
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4 hours ago, regentrude said:

But that risk is an average over many people with very different behaviors. Most of us still take precautions to lower our personal driving risk: wear seat belts, don't text, don't drive intoxicated. Some people are even more careful and avoid driving overtired or in heavy rain.

Not to mention that if getting into a minor fender bender (asymptomatic infection) meant that your unvaccinated or immune compromised family member would be likely to get into a major accident, most of us definitely would alter our driving patterns.

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1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

Here's a news story from January, less than month after the vaccines began rolling out in the US, in which an infectious disease specialist explicitly says that immunity "may last longer than a year, but it’s unlikely to be permanent the way two doses of measles vaccine is. So at some point, it’s likely that we will need to boost people, but we don’t know how frequently that will need to be.”

https://www.abc4.com/coronavirus/will-i-need-to-get-the-covid-19-vaccine-annually-like-the-flu-shot/

Article from February stating that the NHS plans for annual covid boosters shots:

https://www.ft.com/content/26b256d0-d021-46ac-ae3d-e3ea823c033d

In April both Pfizer and Moderna stated explicitly that boosters would be needed:

Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla: "There are vaccines like polio that one dose is enough, there are vaccines like pneumococcal vaccine that one dose is enough for adults, and there are vaccines like flu that you need every year. The COVID virus looks more like the influenza virus than the polio virus."

Moderna CEO Stéphane Bancel: "I hope this summer to get the vaccine authorized for a boost so that we can help people getting boosted before the fall, so that we all have a normal fall and not a fall and winter like we just saw in the last 6 months."

This information was out there and was widely covered in the media. "I wasn't aware of that" does not equal "I was lied to."

Right. I was reading all this stuff way back then, and I know that I was VERY interested in the question of waning immunity.

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1 hour ago, SKL said:

The January link was some dudes in Utah musing about whether or not this will be like the flu or not ... and they said it will not, but they didn't know much else.  (The flu shot is different every year to address different flu strains, as most of us know.  That is not what they are discussing re a mRNA booster.)

The February link is behind a paywall, and it's not a US article.

Those were just examples I pulled up in a 2-second search, demonstrating that health policy people have been discussing the likelihood of boosters since the vaccines were first rolled out. The fact that someone was not aware that boosters were being discussed since vaccines were first rolled out, and therefore assumed that 2 doses provided permanent immunity, doesn't mean they were "lied to."

 

1 hour ago, SKL said:

As for the Pfizer quote you pasted, they are now saying it's like the flu?  Then why use the exact same vax to boost it almost a year later?

And the Moderna quote you pasted implies it's not like the flu since the booster would be the same as the original vax.

Surely you understand that "more like the flu than polio" does not mean "exactly like the flu in every possible way," right?

Both Pfizer & Moderna are trialling boosters that are specific to Delta and other VOC. The data Pfizer released showed that a 3rd dose of the original vaccine produced much higher antibody levels than the original 2 doses, and this level was highly effective against Delta. It was also highly effective against Beta, and I have read that they felt boosting with the original vaccine would provide broader protection against multiple variants versus using a booster specifically targeted at Delta.

 

1 hour ago, SKL said:

Ultimately, if the case were strong for boosters across the board, there should have been plenty of highly convincing evidence long before now.  I can't blame folks who doubt the accountability / transparency of the manufacturers.

Pfizer's booster trial was just completed a month ago, and they immediately released the data. I think you are just making stuff up here — what "highly convincing evidence" do you think they should have produced "long before" the actual trials concluded? The trials showed a 5-fold increase in antibodies compared to 2 doses for under 55s and an 11-fold increase in antibodies in over 55s. What more "accountability and transparency" should be expected of manufacturers beyond releasing data from RCTs as soon as the data is available? 

The question being debated by the CDC and FDA is not whether boosters will improve immunity and reduce infections and spread, the question is whether reducing infection and spread is a big enough deal to be worth pissing off the WHO by distributing boosters to Americans when other countries haven't had first doses yet, or whether the fact that the original two doses still generally protect against hospitalization and death is good enough. And that is a largely political decision that has nothing to do with the "transparency and accountability" of the manufacturers.

 

 

Edited by Corraleno
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