What states have the highest COVID numbers right now?

[PeterPan]

IN, OH, MI, etc. are similar populations and usually have been pretty close in numbers. FL is about double the population and popped up really high. They were kind of backlogged on Ohio numbers and today came out with a whopping 11k+!!!!! So granted that's some backlog, but still the previous numbers were 7k and 8k+. 

So is Ohio going crazy high right now or are more states? Do we really just party and watch too much football together?? I have no clue. At least our governor has FINALLY ditched his idiotic, worthless, homemade calico mask and got something that actually does some good. 

Are your states going crazy right now? Anyone doing bets on how high these numbers will go? Personally, I don't think anything they're doing to the state in restrictions will make a difference, as it's not addressing the real issues. The restrictions come across more like spanking the state, taking away toys to punish bad behavior. I thought we'd level out at 10-12k, but now I'm thinking we could hit 12-20k, which could be CRAZY in a state of our size. That's how high FL went and they were double us.

[Ausmumof3]

6 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

IN, OH, MI, etc. are similar populations and usually have been pretty close in numbers. FL is about double the population and popped up really high. They were kind of backlogged on Ohio numbers and today came out with a whopping 11k+!!!!! So granted that's some backlog, but still the previous numbers were 7k and 8k+. 

So is Ohio going crazy high right now or are more states? Do we really just party and watch too much football together?? I have no clue. At least our governor has FINALLY ditched his idiotic, worthless, homemade calico mask and got something that actually does some good. 

Are your states going crazy right now? Anyone doing bets on how high these numbers will go? Personally, I don't think anything they're doing to the state in restrictions will make a difference, as it's not addressing the real issues. The restrictions come across more like spanking the state, taking away toys to punish bad behavior. I thought we'd level out at 10-12k, but now I'm thinking we could hit 12-20k, which could be CRAZY in a state of our size. That's how high FL went and they were double us.

Ohio keeps featuring in the states that are taking off lists I’ve seen.  In terms of cases and deaths per million you’re still lower than many other states though.  But definitely growing exponentially at the moment.  
 

Why don’t you think the restrictions will work?

[PeterPan]

It looks like we're on par with Texas and Illinois, with them a little higher.

3 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Why don’t you think the restrictions will work?

A 10pm curfew. So I can Christmas shop till 9:59 at Walmart and be safe, but come 10:00 man that is so dangerous.

They're just doing it to say they did something, no data. Our numbers were nothing and they shut down the state, killing small businesses. Now the numbers are crazy high and they whine. 

The FDA should get the stupid vaccines approved and stop slow walking it.

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, PeterPan said:

It looks like we're on par with Texas and Illinois, with them a little higher.

A 10pm curfew. So I can Christmas shop till 9:59 at Walmart and be safe, but come 10:00 man that is so dangerous.

They're just doing it to say they did something, no data. Our numbers were nothing and they shut down the state, killing small businesses. Now the numbers are crazy high and they whine. 

The FDA should get the stupid vaccines approved and stop slow walking it.

The vaccine companies only filed data in the last week!  Typical vaccine development time is four years.  
 

I think curfews can help with reducing people drinking/dancing over multiple establishments but I doubt that will do anything on its own without other measures.

[OH_Homeschooler]

Here is a map that is useful because you can select different metrics and stuff. 

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days

I am in IL but I live a mile away from IA. IL is good about restrictions but Iowa is terrible. I have a lot of reasons I could go into Iowa but I refuse. The governor there has also implemented the most worthless non-mandate I've seen. I occasionally Tweet at her that she is losing my shopping money, but she doesn't seem to care, LOL. 

I look forward to having a vaccine but that will not be a quick fix either. It will take a long time to administer the doses and then it takes antibodies to develop. 

 

[teachermom2834]

Our cases are exploding in our state and we don't make those lists. I think it is really advancing everywhere. 

[mom2scouts]

13 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

It looks like we're on par with Texas and Illinois, with them a little higher.

A 10pm curfew. So I can Christmas shop till 9:59 at Walmart and be safe, but come 10:00 man that is so dangerous.

They're just doing it to say they did something, no data. Our numbers were nothing and they shut down the state, killing small businesses. Now the numbers are crazy high and they whine. 

The FDA should get the stupid vaccines approved and stop slow walking it.

I keep seeing comments like this, but I think it's clear that the reason is to get people out of bars and restaurants late at night without totally shutting them down. I live in a college town and can see the advantage. Ohio had 11,885 new Covid cases in the last 24 hours. That's concerning.

[mommyoffive]

WI here.   We only had 3500 ish today.   But we have been in the 7k almost 8K for a bit now.   

[PeterPan]

17 minutes ago, OH_Homeschooler said:

Here is a map that is useful because you can select different metrics and stuff. 

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days

That's really great! That gives me exactly the data I was looking for.

5 minutes ago, mom2scouts said:

I think it's clear that the reason is to get people out of bars and restaurants late at night without totally shutting them down.

We already had 10pm on bars. They could have left stores alone. There was zero reason, zero evidence. They're wanting to crack down on people "gathering" they said, but the "gathering" they described was publicly visible. So you're safe at your football/drinking party in your home till 9:59. 

[catz]

I know in our state, 10 pm closures/curfew are directly  from tracing data.  People make worse choices after that hour of the day.  Some of that is drinking related but I do think it is generally true.  That doesn't mean you're less safe in walmart at 10:01 vs 9:58 pm.  They need to set a boundary somewhere and that's where they decided to do it. These are not easy decisions but when hospitals are at risk of being unable to keep up, they have to do something.  I wouldn't assume there is no evidence.  

I am also not sure they just don't want to get people home.  There are more things that might  cause injury at that hour - accidents, bar fights, etc.  

The midwest is all pretty bad right now.  Our numbers in MN were slightly better last week than the previous, we will see.

 They are fast tracking the vaccine.  I am feeling good about the current trajectory which will have more data by the time the general public is getting vaccinated hopefully spring to summer.  I don't know what else they could do to get it out faster, it's already been faster and appears more successful than many had hoped.  

Edited November 23, 2020 by FuzzyCatz

[Not_a_Number]

6 minutes ago, mom2scouts said:

I keep seeing comments like this, but I think it's clear that the reason is to get people out of bars and restaurants late at night without totally shutting them down. I live in a college town and can see the advantage. Ohio had 11,885 new Covid cases in the last 24 hours. That's concerning.

It's an evidence-based measure. DH was talking to the people at our local bar, and he said they felt really relieved about the 10PM thing, because people past 10PM were much drunker and rowdier. 

[Not_a_Number]

20 minutes ago, OH_Homeschooler said:

Here is a map that is useful because you can select different metrics and stuff. 

https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days

I am in IL but I live a mile away from IA. IL is good about restrictions but Iowa is terrible. I have a lot of reasons I could go into Iowa but I refuse. The governor there has also implemented the most worthless non-mandate I've seen. I occasionally Tweet at her that she is losing my shopping money, but she doesn't seem to care, LOL. 

I look forward to having a vaccine but that will not be a quick fix either. It will take a long time to administer the doses and then it takes antibodies to develop. 

 

I like that, but I would far prefer a positivity map. Grrr. 

[PeterPan]

A friend suggested numbers are up with people pre-testing for holidays, thinking they're negative. So they were asymptomatic and wouldn't have tested otherwise. Interesting theory, dunno.

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, PeterPan said:

A friend suggested numbers are up with people pre-testing for holidays, thinking they're negative. So they were asymptomatic and wouldn't have tested otherwise. Interesting theory, dunno.

Hmmmm. Interesting theory 🙂 . What would that do to positivity, you think? 

[Ausmumof3]

11 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

That's really great! That gives me exactly the data I was looking for.

We already had 10pm on bars. They could have left stores alone. There was zero reason, zero evidence. They're wanting to crack down on people "gathering" they said, but the "gathering" they described was publicly visible. So you're safe at your football/drinking party in your home till 9:59. 

I can’t imagine too much transmission is happening after 10pm in Walmart.  Maybe it just makes policing it easier who knows?  They did it in Melbourne.  

[Ausmumof3]

11 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

A friend suggested numbers are up with people pre-testing for holidays, thinking they're negative. So they were asymptomatic and wouldn't have tested otherwise. Interesting theory, dunno.

The percent positive looks like it’s increasing as well unfortunately.  Not to April May levels when there was no testing but definitely a steady climb.

https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/wps/portal/gov/covid-19/dashboards/key-metrics/testing

[historically accurate]

I'm in IL, and my county's positivity is just now starting to decline after hitting a high of 31%. We're down to 23% now. We're really close to WI though, and they got hit first and people kept going to WI because "they are open". So, we kind of got their overflow if you will. In the past month, I know of many people who have had it run through their families, a few companies who closed or went full virtual because of covid, and one of my friend's grandmother died last night. Up until last month, I only personally knew 2 local cases. IL is in Tier 3 mitigations as of now.

 

[Pronghorn]

Statista has cumulative numbers of cases per 100,000 people. North Dakota is top, followed by South Dakota and then Iowa.

[Not_a_Number]

I've been following this county-level map, although I kind of lost interest when I started following positivity more than number of cases: 

https://infection2020.com/

[Guest]

I actually think the 10:00 curfew that starts here today (county-wide, not state) will help for one reason and one reason only-bars, and especially Beale Street and a few other areas that have multiple close together and are popular for bar hopping, don't really get going until about then. It's a way of closing bars without having to single out bars. And, our college kids are done Friday, so between those that are staying in off campus apartments for some of this extremely long break and those who are coming home, there is an expectation of increased partying, even before the company Christmas parties, etc start. We had been stable at about 10% positivity, but our newest numbers have us up to 12%, and that's before holiday gatherings start. 

 

Honestly, I wish they would close all in restaurant dining until January, and the same with gyms, etc. My community center director sent out an e-mailed and apparently the one thing that affects us is that masks have to stay on (in some of the dance classes, etc, kids would remove them once they were at their place at the Barre). Frankly, I'm glad I'd already arranged to do my two weeks of makeups online, and to end the in-person semester the week before Thanksgiving. 

Edited November 23, 2020 by dmmetler

[Mrs Tiggywinkle]

I just want to have the energy to be doing anything at 10pm. I’ve usually been in bed about three hours by then.

[cintinative]

So, a couple things for Ohio. Two hospital systems got their data in late and so it reported today, which is why we were close to 11K. That said, there are 15K of backlogged positive antigen tests that need to be individually verified and apparently the governor said today to assume 75% are true positives.  The reality is it might be closer to 100%.  So really over the last week or so when we thought we were at 8K we were probably closer to 10K.  Who knows if the health departments will ever catch up since all of the people who are getting rapid tests right now for Thanksgiving will only add to the load. But no, I don't think that is why today's numbers were high. Those "new" tests will just add to the already large backlog.

On the curfew, it is a curfew for everyone, everywhere in the state at 10 p.m. So you can't be at the park at 10 p.m., at the gym, or really, at your friend's house at 10 p.m, etc.  Now,they aren't going to go knocking on doors, but if you are having a super loud party and the police show up and it is after curfew, you could be cited.  A friend's trail life group cancelled their campout due to the curfew.  I am with you that I don't know if it will make a huge difference in the final analysis, but I guess we'll see.

Based on the press conference today, the hospital systems are going to be overwhelmed in just a week or two and stopping elective procedures if people don't change their tune. It sounded like some areas already have.

As far as neighboring states, KY and IN's numbers are not as high as ours, but they don't have the same high population. MI and PA have struggled. 

 

[katilac]

 

1 hour ago, PeterPan said:

A friend suggested numbers are up with people pre-testing for holidays, thinking they're negative. So they were asymptomatic and wouldn't have tested otherwise. Interesting theory, dunno.

That would be great, but no - Ohio doctors deliver grim message about hospital capacity . You guys are having an increase in serious cases, not just mild or asymptomatic. 

If anyone is wondering, just google "my state hospital capacity" and you'll get the latest. 

[SKL]

I was just looking at Ohio ... according to Worldometer, it's 7th in population and 7th in cases, so that sounds reasonable.

Despite that, Ohio is 37th in cases per million population (so far).  32nd in deaths per million population.  30th in tests per million population.

Wondering why our deaths per million is higher ranked than our cases per million ... I recall that our health department admitted they were including "died with covid" in our death numbers, not just people who died from covid.  Not sure how many other states do the same.  We are also not the healthiest state to begin with.  Our smoking, obesity, and asthma rates are on the higher side, and our median age is a bit above average.

[Not_a_Number]

8 minutes ago, SKL said:

I was just looking at Ohio ... according to Worldometer, it's 7th in population and 7th in cases, so that sounds reasonable.

Despite that, Ohio is 37th in cases per million population (so far).  32nd in deaths per million population.  30th in tests per million population.

Wondering why our deaths per million is higher ranked than our cases per million ... I recall that our health department admitted they were including "died with covid" in our death numbers, not just people who died from covid.  Not sure how many other states do the same.  We are also not the healthiest state to begin with.  Our smoking, obesity, and asthma rates are on the higher side, and our median age is a bit above average.

"Died with COVID" and "died from COVID" are really hard to disentangle. A lot of the people who die are old, sick people. It's hard to know what gets them in the end. But I'm sure you, like every single other state, have more excess deaths that registered COVID deaths, because you, like everyone else, like every single place in every single catastrophe in existence, are excluding more deaths than overcounting. 

I don't know that the cases per million rankings mean much of anything. Cases aren't a meaningful statistic since they rise sharply with the number of tests. 

[cintinative]

10 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I don't know that the cases per million rankings mean much of anything. Cases aren't a meaningful statistic since they rise sharply with the number of tests. 

Unless--they show you that the amount of cases has gone up out of proportion with the increased testing?

[Not_a_Number]

7 minutes ago, cintinative said:

Unless--they show you that the amount of cases has gone up out of proportion with the increased testing?

Yeah, I like tracking positivity 🙂 . I just don't think the "cases per million" statistic is useful, since it's the sum of the cases measured at VERY different points in the pandemic. Right now, we're finding a far greater fraction of the cases than we were in the spring. 

For example, take NY. In cases, it's rated 35th on the list of cases per million compared to the other states! Except that this is total nonsense. The antibody tests that came back in the spring were something like 20% positive. That means we in fact have something like 200,000 cases per million, lol. Except no one was measuring that back in the spring! So then we aren't adding all of those hidden cases to the tally. 

Come to think of it, Ohio probably has a similar issue -- the cases from the spring weren't counted as heavily as the ones nowadays, and Ohio did have a first wave... 

Edited November 23, 2020 by Not_a_Number

[cintinative]

2 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Yeah, I like tracking positivity 🙂 . I just don't think the "cases per million" statistic is useful, since it's the sum of the cases measured at VERY different points in the pandemic. Right now, we're finding a far greater fraction of the cases than we were in the spring. 

For example, take NY. In cases, it's rated 35th on the list of cases per million compared to the other state! Except that this is total nonsense. The antibody tests that came back in the spring were something like 20% positive. That means we in fact have something like 200,000 cases per million, lol. Except no one was measuring that back in the spring! So then we aren't adding all of those hidden cases to the tally. 

Come to think of it, Ohio probably has a similar issue -- the cases from the spring weren't counted as heavily as the ones nowadays, and Ohio did have a first wave... 

That makes sense. If you are looking at it longer term than just the last month, our numbers would reflect a better situation than we now have. We did really well for awhile and then we had a "hold my beer" moment for some reason . . .

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, cintinative said:

That makes sense. If you are looking at it longer term than just the last month, our numbers would reflect a better situation than we now have. We did really well for awhile and then we had a "hold my beer" moment for some reason . . .

I think everyone had this situation. It seems to come with pandemic fatigue and for our states, it doesn't help that the weather has gotten cold. 

[SKL]

38 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

"Died with COVID" and "died from COVID" are really hard to disentangle. A lot of the people who die are old, sick people. It's hard to know what gets them in the end. But I'm sure you, like every single other state, have more excess deaths that registered COVID deaths, because you, like everyone else, like every single place in every single catastrophe in existence, are excluding more deaths than overcounting. 

I don't know that the cases per million rankings mean much of anything. Cases aren't a meaningful statistic since they rise sharply with the number of tests. 

The point is that if different states are using different counting rules, it taints any comparison between states.

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, SKL said:

The point is that if different states are using different counting rules, it taints any comparison between states.

Well, as I said, the cases per million statistic is silly, anyway, unless you think it's in any way meaningful to have NY as the 35th on that list. 

I would guess everyone is doing their best to count COVID deaths and "died with COVID" vs "died from COVID" is making a difference at the margins at most. 

Edited November 24, 2020 by Not_a_Number

[RootAnn]

@Not_a_NumberI found this site which lists % positivity for each state (not a rolling 7 day avg which I would prefer). I've heard how bad certain states are but this list seems very different. Can you comment? Does it need to be a rolling % positivity? These numbers are crazy. Is it just because it's Monday?

Eta: found this which has rolling % positive. Still crazy, but makes more sense: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview

Edited November 24, 2020 by RootAnn

[SKL]

2 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Well, as I said, the cases per million statistic is silly, anyway, unless you think it's in any way meaningful to have NY as the 35th on that list. 

I would guess everyone is doing their best to count COVID deaths and "died with COVID" vs "died from COVID" is making a difference at the margins at most. 

That's why I listed several statistics, not just one.  I just don't think Ohio is in horrible shape compared to other states... or comparable countries for that matter.

Edited November 24, 2020 by SKL

[cintinative]

15 minutes ago, RootAnn said:

@Not_a_NumberI found this site which lists % positivity for each state (not a rolling 7 day avg which I would prefer). I've heard how bad certain states are but this list seems very different. Can you comment? Does it need to be a rolling % positivity? These numbers are crazy. Is it just because it's Monday?

 

This is another site that provides the % positive but I am not sure if it is a rolling average.  https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/testing/tracker/overview

One thing I have been confused about is that Ohio's site says our percent positive is about 14% but the Johns Hopkins site and the one you posted say 24%. I am wondering where the difference lies. ETA: Johns Hopkins has revised theirs to 13% from sometime yesterday. Maybe there was a data error.

Edited November 24, 2020 by cintinative

[TCB]

1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

"Died with COVID" and "died from COVID" are really hard to disentangle. A lot of the people who die are old, sick people. It's hard to know what gets them in the end. But I'm sure you, like every single other state, have more excess deaths that registered COVID deaths, because you, like everyone else, like every single place in every single catastrophe in existence, are excluding more deaths than overcounting. 

I don't know that the cases per million rankings mean much of anything. Cases aren't a meaningful statistic since they rise sharply with the number of tests. 

This really infuriates me! These people are dying because they have Covid. If they had not been infected with Covid they would still be alive. Yes they have pre-existing conditions, but so many of them were living quality, productive lives before they got Covid. 
This illness is horrible. I have never in my 30+ years as a nurse seen so many patients with such profound hypoxia! 

Honestly it just makes me sick and demoralized to hear the whole of Covid, with Covid thing. I’m sure there are 1 or 2 miscounted people but not many. It’s just a way to minimize and deny what is happening. 
By the way I quoted your post but I know you aren’t saying that.

[Pam in CT]

It's getting worse in just about every state. But even once you control for population, different metrics measure different aspects of "worse."

Here's a JHU chart I like very much, that compares in one place three metrics of all 50 states, and whether that metric is moving up or down: 1. new daily cases (on occasion a particular state reports 0 new cases; that is just about always a data reporting problem not a 0-cases day); 2. testing per 1,000 population (so it's adjusted for different sized population); and 3. (rolling 7 day average) positivity rates

And here's a summary where you can click on each state to get a bunch of other indicators.

 

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, SKL said:

I was just looking at Ohio ... according to Worldometer, it's 7th in population and 7th in cases, so that sounds reasonable.

Despite that, Ohio is 37th in cases per million population (so far).  32nd in deaths per million population.  30th in tests per million population.

Wondering why our deaths per million is higher ranked than our cases per million ... I recall that our health department admitted they were including "died with covid" in our death numbers, not just people who died from covid.  Not sure how many other states do the same.  We are also not the healthiest state to begin with.  Our smoking, obesity, and asthma rates are on the higher side, and our median age is a bit above average.

If you are having more deaths per millions than cases per million it may also be that you’ve had less people getting tested.  That would be reflected in percent positive.  It also would be increased by a higher risk population.

[Not_a_Number]

1 hour ago, SKL said:

That's why I listed several statistics, not just one.  I just don't think Ohio is in horrible shape compared to other states... or comparable countries for that matter.

It's not currently in bad shape, but the fact that positivity is still going up isn't a great sign. But I'm sure it will get better if people don't travel for Thanksgiving and social distance... 

[melmichigan]

Our local hospital is at 100% capacity.  Our county positivity is 16%.  Below is the state hospitalizations.  I copied it to the wrong post, but can't figure out how to delete it.

 

 

Edited November 24, 2020 by melmichigan

[hippiemamato3]

www.covidactnow.org shows almost every state in the US as in imminent or active outbreak.