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I rarely post, but regularly follow threads, and have particularly appreciate the Covid threads. They have provided some of the most useful, balanced, and informed discussion I have come across regarding the virus, and the information I have gained here has helped to keep my family healthy and has given the the knowledge and confidence to proceed with our choices, even in the face of judgment and assorted challenges. They have also helped me understand a wide variety of perspectives.

Is it possible to have a similarly informative discussion about the vaccine? I would love to central place, like the Covid thread, where people can share research, personal experiences, and a variety of perspectives. I think there are a lot of people who are not opposed to vaccines in general and who have taken this virus seriously all along and who do care deeply about others (and who desperately want to get out of their houses and back to their lives), but who may not be ready yet to stick out their arms for a shot. Like the virus, once you get this vaccine, you cannot un-get it.

Edited by Amoret
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We don’t have any of the information about the vaccines yet. One company was going to apply for emergency use today, but it might be a few weeks before the FDA has time to evaluate, let alone to release information to the public.  While I’m sure we’ll eventually evaluate which vaccine we’d prefer for who, at this point it’s too early to tell. Also frankly until well into late spring we probably won’t have enough supply to have much choice as to choosing which one to take. 

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I have been very interested in the vaccine being developed by Moderna, for many months,, because I am elderly and in their first tests they discovered that it is also very effective in the elderly population. I believe it requires 2 shots, 2 to 4 (?) weeks apart.  They are extremely close to applying for Emergency Authority.

The vaccine being developed by Pfizer and another company had a glitch awhile back, but I believe it was decided to be OK. That one, is, I believe, the vaccine that requires being shipped (and also stored?) at -70 C., which to me is a huge problem.  I think that one only requires one shot?  They are very close to applying for Emergency Authority.

The vaccine being developed by Johnson and Johnson, I believe is the one where they have about 500 people, in our city, Cali, Colombia, participating in the tests, which will go on for about 2 years. As I recall there are approximately 30 to 40 K people worldwide participating in the tests, including about 500 people here.  I believe they also had a glitch that was determined not to be important. 

There are probably a couple of other vaccines that are very close in the USA.

I am hoping that the vaccine produced by Moderna will be available here in Colombia and that where we go for the Obligatory Health Plan that they will be using the Moderna vaccine.  Probably all of them will be excellent.

Edited by Lanny
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I don't have enough information yet to make a decision about a COVID vaccine.  I don't understand people who have already made decisions about the vaccine when they don't know if and when what vaccine will be available and much detail about the vaccine.  The only question I think that can be reasonably answered at this point is whether I would be willing to participate in a vaccine trial--and I don't even have an answer for that.

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5 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

I don't have enough information yet to make a decision about a COVID vaccine.  I don't understand people who have already made decisions about the vaccine when they don't know if and when what vaccine will be available and much detail about the vaccine.  The only question I think that can be reasonably answered at this point is whether I would be willing to participate in a vaccine trial--and I don't even have an answer for that.

If you live somewhere where one of the laboratories has participants in their vaccine tests, possibly you can still get in. My belief is that those tests have been going on for approximately 6 months.  Half of the participants receive the vaccine and half receive a placebo and they will be carefully monitored for approximately 24 months from now.

The vaccine that requires shipping (and also storage?) at -70 C. to me is very problematic. Normally those things are shipped and stored at -20 C.  I think that's the one being developed by Pfizer and another company?  (We live in South America so the shipping is more of an issue than it is for shipments within the USA)

 

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I felt a bit hesitant about this vaccine because it is getting rushed out... but then I talked to @maize on here about it, who pointed out that while the vaccine isn't PERFECTLY tested, the virus is really not tested at all 😉 . So then the question becomes whether I think a vaccine is riskier than the virus, and I do not. So I will get immunized unless I see very alarming data on the vaccine... goodness knows I've seen very alarming data on the virus. 

Edited by Not_a_Number
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This is a great question. Thanks for starting the thread. 
 

Like everyone else in the world, I want so badly for this pandemic to end. A magical shot in the arm and bam, it’s gone. I love that idea!

But right now, we have no data from the drug companies. Everything we’ve been hearing is coming from the drug companies. Press releases basically. We have not seen data. Nothing has been published in peer-reviewed journals. I just wish they would give us access to the data. Because it matters. Statistics can be easily manipulated. Side effects matter.

I’m not an anti-vaxxer at all. And I’m not so anti-Trump that I would refuse a quality vaccine just to spite him. I WANT a vaccine. I just want to know that it is safe and effective. 

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5 hours ago, Lanny said:

I have been very interested in the vaccine being developed by Moderna, for many months,, because I am elderly and in their first tests they discovered that it is also very effective in the elderly population. I believe it requires 2 shots, 2 to 4 (?) weeks apart.  They are extremely close to applying for Emergency Authority.

The vaccine being developed by Pfizer and another company had a glitch awhile back, but I believe it was decided to be OK. That one, is, I believe, the vaccine that requires being shipped (and also stored?) at -70 C., which to me is a huge problem.  I think that one only requires one shot?  They are very close to applying for Emergency Authority.

The vaccine being developed by Johnson and Johnson, I believe is the one where they have about 500 people, in our city, Cali, Colombia, participating in the tests, which will go on for about 2 years. As I recall there are approximately 30 to 40 K people worldwide participating in the tests, including about 500 people here.  I believe they also had a glitch that was determined not to be important. 

There are probably a couple of other vaccines that are very close in the USA.

I am hoping that the vaccine produced by Moderna will be available here in Colombia and that where we go for the Obligatory Health Plan that they will be using the Moderna vaccine.  Probably all of them will be excellent.

Both the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are 2 shots. What I have read is Pfizer's shots are 3 weeks apart, and Moderna's are 28 days apart. 

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Great idea for a thread.  There has been quite a lot of criticism of this “science by press release” approach that the vaccine companies are taking. I’m still slightly worried about the Astra Zeneca one due to the transverse myelitis case which may of course have been purely coincidental.  
 

I have listened to the Coronacast and they have said a few times that likely some of the later vaccines to come through may well prove the better ones.  
 

I think this is a very different decision to be making in the US where your chance of getting the virus is quite high to here where at this point hopefully the chance is still pretty low.  
 

It will also be interesting to see how long lasting the immunity seems to be.

 

 

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On the TM case and the astrazeneca vaccine` ....

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/17/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-trial-document/index.html

It was noted the person who developed this started getting TM symptoms the day after a jarring incident while running that may have caused pinched nerve type symptoms.   They have about 30,000 people enrolled in the trial.  Having incidents occur is totally expected during a trial of this size and it's good they pause and look at all the info before they resume.  But given the circumstances and the fact they won't release all info due to privacy but continued the trial pretty quickly,  I am not super worried about this particular incident.

As a 50 year old, I would much prefer to take a vaccine that will likely have a 99.X% chance of working without significant adverse affects than roll the dice on a 10% chance of getting covid and hospitalization with possible long term affects when I have family history of viral caused heart disease and autoimmune disorders through my family tree.  I am watching the science and data closely.  The data is analyzed by an independent 3rd party (the DSMB), so I fully expect that it will be accurate to what we've seen when it is all released.   We will have another 6-8 months of data when the general public can start to be vaccinated in larger numbers and will continue to get data over the following months.  

I think there is plenty of reason to be watching closely for data and information as it is rolled out and be aware things could change.  I think for people who have health concerns contraindicate vaccination, I assume they will make decisions with their health care professionals.  I would hope they  are actively working to be very safe.  I don't think there is reason for the general public to be slapping conspiracy theories on pretty standard vaccine development.  I feel like a good indicator is a vaccine that the general medical community is happy to use itself. 

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15 minutes ago, FuzzyCatz said:

As a 50 year old, I would much prefer to take a vaccine that will likely have a 99.X% chance of working without significant adverse affects than roll the dice on a 10% chance of getting covid and hospitalization with possible long term affects when I have family history of viral caused heart disease and autoimmune disorders through my family tree.

Exactly. This is the thing people somehow don't think about enough -- it's not vaccine vs. nothing, it's vaccine vs. virus, given how things are in the US. 

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afaik, Pfizer/Biontech  requires very cold storage and is only stable for 5 days at 25deg F.  (Though I guess that being worked on). 2 doses 21 days apart. Most negative effects in about 7 days from dose 2.

 

Afaik, Moderna is stable for around a month at 25 deg F.  A likely huge benefit for many of us in world. 2 doses 28 days apart. Most negative effects in about 14 days from dose 2. Iirc. 
 

Johnson and Johnson may be single dose — one of the major candidates is single dose anyway — and not requiring extra special cold storage which, whichever one it is, could be a major help in many places.  (Maybe why it’s trialing where you are?)

  Pfizer is definitely a 2 dose . 
 

 

8 hours ago, Lanny said:

I have been very interested in the vaccine being developed by Moderna, for many months,, because I am elderly and in their first tests they discovered that it is also very effective in the elderly population. I believe it requires 2 shots, 2 to 4 (?) weeks apart.  They are extremely close to applying for Emergency Authority.

The vaccine being developed by Pfizer and another company had a glitch awhile back, but I believe it was decided to be OK. That one, is, I believe, the vaccine that requires being shipped (and also stored?) at -70 C., which to me is a huge problem.  I think that one only requires one shot?  They are very close to applying for Emergency Authority.

The vaccine being developed by Johnson and Johnson, I believe is the one where they have about 500 people, in our city, Cali, Colombia, participating in the tests, which will go on for about 2 years. As I recall there are approximately 30 to 40 K people worldwide participating in the tests, including about 500 people here.  I believe they also had a glitch that was determined not to be important. 

There are probably a couple of other vaccines that are very close in the USA.

I am hoping that the vaccine produced by Moderna will be available here in Colombia and that where we go for the Obligatory Health Plan that they will be using the Moderna vaccine.  Probably all of them will be excellent.


 

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8 hours ago, Amoret said:

I rarely post, but regularly follow threads, and have particularly appreciate the Covid threads. They have provided some of the most useful, balanced, and informed discussion I have come across regarding the virus, and the information I have gained here has helped to keep my family healthy and has given the the knowledge and confidence to proceed with our choices, even in the face of judgment and assorted challenges. They have also helped me understand a wide variety of perspectives.

Is it possible to have a similarly informative discussion about the vaccine? I would love to central place, like the Covid thread, where people can share research, personal experiences, and a variety of perspectives. I am getting the sense that there are two camps setting up in opposition to one another (in general, not necessarily here): the "it is the greatest miracle of modern times, and if you don't get it, you must be selfish/scared/brainwashed/anti-vaxxer" proponents vs. the "it is the greatest scam of modern times and if you do get it, you must be selfish/brainwashed/scared/deluded" proponents. This reminds me of the early days of the virus when it was either a hoax or the end of the world. It has turned out to be neither. As far as the vaccine goes, I don't want to be so cynical as to miss out on it if it is, in fact, a modern miracle, but I also don't want to be blind to potential problems that could arise as a result of the novel technology and other issues (like expedited approval, abbreviated trial periods, potential conflicts of interest, and so on).

I think there are a lot of people who are not opposed to vaccines in general and who have taken this virus seriously all along and who do care deeply about others (and who desperately want to get out of their houses and back to their lives), but who may not be ready yet to stick out their arms for a shot. Like the virus, once you get this vaccine, you cannot un-get it.


I am waiting to see what ends up available where I am. If I have more than one choice I’ll look carefully at what is known at that point. 
 

I am also

interested in some other options that might still be developing such as: 

 

https://www.universityofcalifornia.edu/news/aeronabs-promise-powerful-inhalable-protection-against-covid-19

Credit: UCSF Llama-inspired design. Though engineered entirely in the lab, AeroNabs were inspired by nanobodies, antibody-like immune proteins that naturally occur in llamas, camels and related animals. Since their discovery in a Belgian lab in the late 1980s, the distinctive properties of nanobodies have intrigued scientists worldwide


 

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I'll likely get whichever vaccine is first available in my area.  (I have two high-risks family members.)  I've spoken with my brother who's a research scientist and intersects with several Covid research teams.  He believes that FDA-approved vaccines are generally very safe, and I trust his knowledge on that.  He's actually very conservative so that makes me trust his opinions even more when he supports something like this!  He has said that they really do have to follow very rigid safety guidelines.  I won't hesitate to get vaccinated as soon as it's available in my state.  If I have a choice, I'll probably go with Moderna at this point, but I imagine they'll all be just as safe from what I'm hearing.

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2 hours ago, FuzzyCatz said:

 

As a 50 year old, I would much prefer to take a vaccine that will likely have a 99.X% chance of working without significant adverse affects than roll the dice on a 10% chance of getting covid and hospitalization with possible long term affects when I have family history of viral caused heart disease and autoimmune disorders through my family tree.

 

 

2 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Exactly. This is the thing people somehow don't think about enough -- it's not vaccine vs. nothing, it's vaccine vs. virus, given how things are in the US. 

This attitude is true for any vaccine as far as I'm concerned but especially for the Covid-19 vaccine. As someone over 60 and therefore automatically considered high risk even though I'm healthy, I'll take my chances with the vaccine.

As an aside, my massage therapist was a part of the Moderna trials. She got the two shots a few weeks apart and said she experienced no side effects whatsoever.

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With the exception of healthcare workers and those who are particularly high risk, I don't think many of us will be in a position to choose whether or not to get vaxxed before late March at the earliest, and millions of other people will have gotten it by then, so we'll have plenty more data. I'm very interested to see the efficacy rates for Astra Zeneca, because supposedly the antibody rates for that one are much higher than for either Moderna or Pfizer; whether that actually means anything, or whether comparing a traditional vaccine to an mRNA vaccine is apples and oranges, I don't really know. The other concern would be side effects, because those seem to be pretty unpleasant (although transient) in almost 10% of those who get the Moderna vaccine:

The independent board that conducted the interim analysis of Moderna’s huge trial found that severe side effects included fatigue in 9.7% of participants, muscle pain in 8.9%, joint pain in 5.2%, and headache in 4.5%. For the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine, the numbers were lower: Severe side effects included fatigue (3.8%) and headache (2%). 
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/11/fever-aches-pfizer-moderna-jabs-aren-t-dangerous-may-be-intense-some

They think those reactions are likely caused by the body's reaction to the "lipid nanoparticle" that contains the genetic material, so the non-mRNA vaccines may have fewer side effects. If they are equally effective, I might lean towards one of those if given a choice. But if the AZ or J&J vaccines are significantly less effective, I'd rather put up with a day of fatigue and achiness.

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2 hours ago, FuzzyCatz said:

On the TM case and the astrazeneca vaccine` ....

https://www.cnn.com/2020/09/17/health/astrazeneca-vaccine-trial-document/index.html

It was noted the person who developed this started getting TM symptoms the day after a jarring incident while running that may have caused pinched nerve type symptoms.   They have about 30,000 people enrolled in the trial.  Having incidents occur is totally expected during a trial of this size and it's good they pause and look at all the info before they resume.  But given the circumstances and the fact they won't release all info due to privacy but continued the trial pretty quickly,  I am not super worried about this particular incident.

As a 50 year old, I would much prefer to take a vaccine that will likely have a 99.X% chance of working without significant adverse affects than roll the dice on a 10% chance of getting covid and hospitalization with possible long term affects when I have family history of viral caused heart disease and autoimmune disorders through my family tree.  I am watching the science and data closely.  The data is analyzed by an independent 3rd party (the DSMB), so I fully expect that it will be accurate to what we've seen when it is all released.   We will have another 6-8 months of data when the general public can start to be vaccinated in larger numbers and will continue to get data over the following months.  

I think there is plenty of reason to be watching closely for data and information as it is rolled out and be aware things could change.  I think for people who have health concerns contraindicate vaccination, I assume they will make decisions with their health care professionals.  I would hope they  are actively working to be very safe.  I don't think there is reason for the general public to be slapping conspiracy theories on pretty standard vaccine development.  I feel like a good indicator is a vaccine that the general medical community is happy to use itself. 

It is worth noting though that there have been two incidences during the trial and the usual rate is 4.6 per million.  Of course the first one became an ms diagnosis and they concluded it was unrelated but there doesn’t seem to be much information.  Also transverse myelitis has been previously linked to vaccines although that is somewhat disputed.  It’s not enough to reject a vaccine altogether but if we are lucky enough to have a choice it’s something to keep in mind.

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11 hours ago, Amoret said:

I rarely post, but regularly follow threads, and have particularly appreciate the Covid threads. They have provided some of the most useful, balanced, and informed discussion I have come across regarding the virus, and the information I have gained here has helped to keep my family healthy and has given the the knowledge and confidence to proceed with our choices, even in the face of judgment and assorted challenges. They have also helped me understand a wide variety of perspectives.

Is it possible to have a similarly informative discussion about the vaccine? I would love to central place, like the Covid thread, where people can share research, personal experiences, and a variety of perspectives. I am getting the sense that there are two camps setting up in opposition to one another (in general, not necessarily here): the "it is the greatest miracle of modern times, and if you don't get it, you must be selfish/scared/brainwashed/anti-vaxxer" proponents vs. the "it is the greatest scam of modern times and if you do get it, you must be selfish/brainwashed/scared/deluded" proponents. This reminds me of the early days of the virus when it was either a hoax or the end of the world. It has turned out to be neither. As far as the vaccine goes, I don't want to be so cynical as to miss out on it if it is, in fact, a modern miracle, but I also don't want to be blind to potential problems that could arise as a result of the novel technology and other issues (like expedited approval, abbreviated trial periods, potential conflicts of interest, and so on).

I think there are a lot of people who are not opposed to vaccines in general and who have taken this virus seriously all along and who do care deeply about others (and who desperately want to get out of their houses and back to their lives), but who may not be ready yet to stick out their arms for a shot. Like the virus, once you get this vaccine, you cannot un-get it.

You mischaracterize how the pandemic was framed among those who were (and are) concerned that this is a serious and potentially deadly illness that could have been slowed if people were personally responsible took adequate precautions.

Spreading such false narratives is not helpful.

Bill

 

 

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FDA approval will be good enough for me.

 

It would take a lot for me to question FDA approval as insufficient.  
 

Frankly it’s not realistic for me to do more than trust the experts.  I am not personally going to get up to speed to be able to make a decision personally informed by my own knowledge or experience — it is ludicrous.  
 

If I had a disease where I was going to look at research comparing treatment options — I would give it a try.  I believe being personally informed can make a difference in that situation. 
 

I just don’t see it for this.  
 

 

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13 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

It is worth noting though that there have been two incidences during the trial and the usual rate is 4.6 per million.  Of course the first one became an ms diagnosis and they concluded it was unrelated but there doesn’t seem to be much information.  Also transverse myelitis has been previously linked to vaccines although that is somewhat disputed.  It’s not enough to reject a vaccine altogether but if we are lucky enough to have a choice it’s something to keep in mind.

just for clarification, the first incidence of tm symptoms was in a control group.  This is a Bloomberg article reposted 
 

https://www.post-gazette.com/business/healthcare-business/2020/10/22/vaccine-trials-Johnson-Johnson-AstraZeneca-restart-pandemic-covid-19/stories/202010220091

 

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4 minutes ago, FuzzyCatz said:

just for clarification, the first incidence of tm symptoms was in a control group.  This is a Bloomberg article reposted 
 

https://www.post-gazette.com/business/healthcare-business/2020/10/22/vaccine-trials-Johnson-Johnson-AstraZeneca-restart-pandemic-covid-19/stories/202010220091

Underscoring the fact that if you have 1000s of people in a vaccine trial, lots of "adverse events" will be RANDOM and unrelated to the vaccine. If you follow 1000 random people for a few months, something bad will happen to one of them. This where the double-blind design helps you distinguish side effects from noise. 

All these discussions make me realize we need to focus on probability MUCH more in school. People are not used to talking about probability at all. I've had a discussion on this very board about whether applying to more colleges increases your chance of getting in... yes, yes it does, and if you know ANY probability, that's utterly obvious. 

...of course, to do a good job teaching probability, we need to have kids understand fractions .. which requires teachers that understand fractions... sigh. 

Edited by Not_a_Number
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I am not looking for debate-only information. One of my FB friends sent me a link about the Astra ??? vaccine having aborted fetal parts in it and something about dna. This person is also in the anti-mask and faith over fear camp, so I take everything she says with a teaspoon of salt. 

Anyone care to comment? (I ignored my FB friend.)

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18 minutes ago, FuzzyCatz said:

just for clarification, the first incidence of tm symptoms was in a control group.  This is a Bloomberg article reposted 
 

https://www.post-gazette.com/business/healthcare-business/2020/10/22/vaccine-trials-Johnson-Johnson-AstraZeneca-restart-pandemic-covid-19/stories/202010220091

 

Hmm that is not what I read previously.  Thanks 🙏 

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1 minute ago, Ausmumof3 said:

More on TM and vaccines in general 

https://n.neurology.org/content/90/15_Supplement/P5.099

I'm not surprised that vaccines have this kind of side effects, because they are a medical treatment, and they introduce things into the bloodstream... of course there will be some serious side effects.

But 3.7 per year is vanishingly small, given how many people have been vaccinated that year. Overfocusing on these tiny numbers is like never driving because some people die in car accidents (MANY more people than this die in car accidents, by the way. Orders of magnitude more.) 

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2 hours ago, math teacher said:

I am not looking for debate-only information. One of my FB friends sent me a link about the Astra ??? vaccine having aborted fetal parts in it and something about dna. This person is also in the anti-mask and faith over fear camp, so I take everything she says with a teaspoon of salt. 

Anyone care to comment? (I ignored my FB friend.)

Yes, they used cells from a kidney of an aborted foetus to derive some cells that were used during the development and testing of this vaccine. The process is extremely complicated and the final product does not contain stem cells, but makes use of it in the process as far as I know. Not to get political, but this vaccine (ETA: Trump received the antibody cocktail, not vaccine) was given to Trump at Walter Reed and many political commentators questioned how it was possible for a person of his political persuasion to use a vaccine that depended on stem cells derived from elective abortion for its development.

Edited by mathnerd
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7 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

Yes, they used cells from a kidney of an aborted foetus to derive some cells that were used during the development and testing of this vaccine. The process is extremely complicated and the final product does not contain stem cells, but makes use of it in the process as far as I know. Not to get political, but this vaccine was given to Trump at Walter Reed and many political commentators questioned how it was possible for a person of his political persuasion to use a vaccine that depended on stem cells derived from elective abortion for its development.

Are you conflating the vaccine with the antibody cocktail that Trump received?

Bill

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49 minutes ago, Spy Car said:

Are you conflating the vaccine with the antibody cocktail that Trump received?

Bill

You are right. I was context-switching between multiple threads and posted wrongly about Trump getting a vaccine when he got Regeneron’s antibody cocktail and we are discussing AstraZeneca’s vaccine here.
l have read in a lot of places that AstraZeneca vaccine uses the “immortal cell” line HEK 293 which is derived from an aborted embryo in the Netherlands. I am looking for specific links and found this one. Will post more links later as I am heading out to buy groceries now:

Three vaccines that are in advanced trials use HEK293 lines — the Oxford vaccine co-developed with AstraZeneca, China's CanSino Biologics vaccine and Russia's Gamaleya Institute vaccine. Johnson & Johnson uses the other major fetal cell line, PER.C6.
Read more at https://www.todayonline.com/world/how-fetal-cells-1970s-power-medical-innovation-today

 

Edited by mathnerd
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23 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

Yes, they used cells from a kidney of an aborted foetus to derive some cells that were used during the development and testing of this vaccine. The process is extremely complicated and the final product does not contain stem cells, but makes use of it in the process as far as I know. Not to get political, but this vaccine was given to Trump at Walter Reed and many political commentators questioned how it was possible for a person of his political persuasion to use a vaccine that depended on stem cells derived from elective abortion for its development.

Trump never received a vaccine.  There were no vaccines available then, and at any rate a vaccine is useless once someone is already infected.  I think you are talking about the antibody cocktail Trump received.  This has nothing to do with any of the vaccines in development.

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19 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

Trump never received a vaccine.  There were no vaccines available then, and at any rate a vaccine is useless once someone is already infected.  I think you are talking about the antibody cocktail Trump received.  This has nothing to do with any of the vaccines in development.

You are right. Trump received the antibody cocktail and not vaccine.

here is another link to the HEK 293 cells used in vaccines:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/abortion-opponents-protest-covid-19-vaccines-use-fetal-cells

 

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2 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

 

All these discussions make me realize we need to focus on probability MUCH more in school. People are not used to talking about probability at all. I've had a discussion on this very board about whether applying to more colleges increases your chance of getting in... yes, yes it does, and if you know ANY probability, that's utterly obvious. 

...of course, to do a good job teaching probability, we need to have kids understand fractions .. which requires teachers that understand fractions... sigh. 

 

1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

I'm not surprised that vaccines have this kind of side effects, because they are a medical treatment, and they introduce things into the bloodstream... of course there will be some serious side effects.

But 3.7 per year is vanishingly small, given how many people have been vaccinated that year. Overfocusing on these tiny numbers is like never driving because some people die in car accidents (MANY more people than this die in car accidents, by the way. Orders of magnitude more.) 

Yes, probability and risk assessment. We seem unable to understand either or both. 

Our family is hoping that dss' family will be able to get an early slot. Dss is a first responder and our granddaughter Emma is immunocompromised due to her Down Syndrome. We'll all breathe easier if all of them, including ddil and the boys, can get the vaccine early on.

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5 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

You are right. Trump received the antibody cocktail and not vaccine.

here is another link to the HEK 293 cells used in vaccines:

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/abortion-opponents-protest-covid-19-vaccines-use-fetal-cells

So is the idea that ANYTHING derived from an aborted fetus is now off-limits? Because if anything that has involved loss of life in any previous point can't be used, we gotta clear out of this country, lol. I'm pretty sure we didn't get this land by peaceful means... 

Seriously, though -- I'm going to be incredibly sad if people don't take the vaccine for this kind of reason. This vaccine will save lives in the here and now. 

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Just now, Not_a_Number said:

So is the idea that ANYTHING derived from an aborted fetus is now off-limits? Because if anything that has involved loss of life in any previous point can't be used, we gotta clear out of this country, lol. I'm pretty sure we didn't get this land by peaceful means... 

Seriously, though -- I'm going to be incredibly sad if people don't take the vaccine for this kind of reason. This vaccine will save lives in the here and now. 

Personally, it is not a problem for me and these cells are used in the development of many different treatments for many diseases. But, there are some people who are ethically against it. On digging further, I am finding that many manufacturers of vaccines use similar processes to test the effectiveness of a vaccine before going into human trials. Any serious medical intervention might involve treatments derived from stem cells apparently.

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Just now, mathnerd said:

Personally, it is not a problem for me and these cells are used in the development of many different treatments for many diseases. But, there are some people who are ethically against it. On digging further, I am finding that many manufacturers of vaccines use similar processes to test the effectiveness of a vaccine before going into human trials. Any serious medical intervention might involve treatments derived from stem cells apparently.

Got it. I really hope people don't decide to rile people up about this 😕 . That's all we need, for people to decide they can't get these treatments because of where they come from... 

(In general, I tend to assume that if I look "under the hood" of most processes, I'll be disturbed. Very few things are totally ethically sourced.) 

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2 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

I'm not surprised that vaccines have this kind of side effects, because they are a medical treatment, and they introduce things into the bloodstream... of course there will be some serious side effects.

But 3.7 per year is vanishingly small, given how many people have been vaccinated that year. Overfocusing on these tiny numbers is like never driving because some people die in car accidents (MANY more people than this die in car accidents, by the way. Orders of magnitude more.) 

Lol well that’s just me.  I like to know all the things and to me it’s kind of reassuring that even if the astra Zeneca thing was vaccine related it’s not a new thing with that vaccine - it’s a risk we’ve already dealt with with vaccines before.  

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55 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Got it. I really hope people don't decide to rile people up about this 😕 . That's all we need, for people to decide they can't get these treatments because of where they come from... 

That's already happening, unfortunately. ☹️ There's a video being circulated by antivaxx groups claiming that the AZ vaccine contains, as an actual ingredient, aborted fetal tissue, so if you get the vaccine you will be injected with dead baby cells. Two days ago a Catholic bishop stated that Catholics cannot take any vaccine that used fetal cells in the development process, so he was at least accurate about that part, but then he specifically mentioned Pfizer, which didn't use fetal cells, so I'm sure that confused a lot of people too.

And then there are all the Qnuts, who already believe that Democrats and celebrities are killing babies to harvest a substance from their blood they call "adrenochrome," which is supposed to keep them young, so the idea that Bill Gates and Big Pharma and the evil Dems would develop a vaccine that literally contains dead babies fits right in with that. It was interesting to see the reaction in the Quniverse to Trump taking the Regeneron treatment, which was developed with fetal cells. Although there was some anger, and fears that since he had been "injected with adrenochrome" he was now corrupted, Breitbart solved the cognitive dissonance by insisting that Regeneron was actually developed with mouse cells. Such is the world we live in. 😕

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Various church denominations have people who examine the ethics of fetal cells in vaccine development. For those who are concerned on a religious basis, you might google what your denomination has to say. 

This is from a Southern Baptist entity, though the denomination is not hierarchical in the way some denominations are. https://erlc.com/resource-library/articles/explainer-vaccines-and-aborted-human-fetal-tissue/

 

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Astra Zeneca press release our here.

https://www.ox.ac.uk/news/2020-11-23-oxford-university-breakthrough-global-covid-19-vaccine#

 

1/2 dose followed by full dose 90pc effective 

two full doses 62 pc effective

lower level of asymptomatic infections means it might be helpful for preventing transmission as well as disease 

 

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This is a long interview that is a week old, but has a lot of straight talk about what to expect after the data comes out. He is the leading vaccine expert in S. Korea.
For people like me that don’t know a whole lot about this, I found it very informative. 

 

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On 11/21/2020 at 12:38 PM, math teacher said:

I am not looking for debate-only information. One of my FB friends sent me a link about the Astra ??? vaccine having aborted fetal parts in it and something about dna. This person is also in the anti-mask and faith over fear camp, so I take everything she says with a teaspoon of salt. 

Anyone care to comment? (I ignored my FB friend.)

https://lozierinstitute.org/an-ethics-assessment-of-covid-19-vaccine-programs/  There's a chart at the bottom of this link that shows which vaccines are using what. And it looks like they have updated it. https://lozierinstitute.org/update-covid-19-vaccine-candidates-and-abortion-derived-cell-lines/

I'm not sure I'm a Politifact fan, but this article was in plain english at least. https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/nov/18/facebook-posts/oxford-astrazeneca-vaccine-does-not-contain-aborte/ 

Personally, I find it odd that people who are not of my persuasion (some of the rude, crass, profanity laden, dogmatic, this is how you must think videos which to me are clearly not christian) are trying to tell me, as a christian, how I must think. I also remember the debates George W Bush went through with himself about gov't funding of research using these lines. If people recall, he chose to allow those to continue with federal funds but not start *new* lines.

So I think we could say it would be NICE, preferable, desirable if they were all using non-fetal derived material, sure. But I'm not certain the dc was aborted FOR the research (ever, initially, decades ago), and I'm not sure my failing to consider the vaccine makes a difference in the life of the NEXT child. Or does it? Wouldn't that be better solved through the legal process?

I would never want to complicate or impune the conscience of someone who needs to take this vaccine (like my dad), because I cannot find a direct ethical issue. It's being inferred or derived, but these are not people of my tribe, my faith system, whatever. I'm not exactly sure what this Lozier Institute is, didn't look into it, but I assume they're coming from a religious perspective. Even they don't seem to be taking a hard line saying one COULD NOT take the vaccines.

If I have the *choice* of vaccines and *choose* to take it, then obviously I would prefer one not derived from abortion ever in its history. There are other ways and we should move on from that. But I don't think it's necessary to compel people NOT to take the vaccine or make them feel guilty over it. The harm was done decades ago. If there is harm being done now (continued federal funding to harvest/use aborted baby parts), then that's a legislative issue.

I'm sure there are more nuanced ways ethicists and christian ethicists think through it, but that's how I parse it.

Also, fwiw, I wouldn't assume that all who choose not to vax (in general) are going to choose not to take this vaccine. There are going to be some odd bed fellows here. I guess you could be cynical and think it's political, but I tend to think it's that people are thinking really hard and may be taking the virus very seriously if they have pre-existing conditions. As far as the question of kids, I see little logic there and doubt they will be high priority for a long time. Health care workers, seniors, then people with pre-existing conditions.

For me, what I'm looking for is information on the ingredients, the additives. These are going to be multi dose vials, so that usually means extra preservatives, etc. So that's something I'm wanting to find out.

Edited by PeterPan
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On 11/20/2020 at 12:43 PM, Lanny said:

I am hoping that the vaccine produced by Moderna will be available here in Colombia

I thought part of the gig with Trump's fast tracking was that he has PRE-BOUGHT millions of doses. I don't see how the manufacturer is going to have any to ship around the world. Or maybe they have other branches? I don't know. I was just under the impression these vaccines are tedious to manufacture.

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re waiting on full data & peer review

On 11/20/2020 at 5:36 PM, Amethyst said:

...right now, we have no data from the drug companies. Everything we’ve been hearing is coming from the drug companies. Press releases basically. We have not seen data. Nothing has been published in peer-reviewed journals. I just wish they would give us access to the data. Because it matters. Statistics can be easily manipulated. Side effects matter.

I’m not an anti-vaxxer at all. And I’m not so anti-Trump that I would refuse a quality vaccine just to spite him. I WANT a vaccine. I just want to know that it is safe and effective. 

I agree about science via press releases, and making decisions based on the information we have RIGHT NOW. We will have peer review before it's time to make our own personal decisions, though.  It's hard to express how fast-tracked these development efforts have taken place compared to other vaccine developments, or how much anxious hopeful scrutiny there is on the researchers.

And that there is not just one, or two, but THREE efforts that look to be both better-than-expected on efficacy, and also on track to be at least preliminarily available under emergency use this early... honestly it's beyond my best hopes from what I expected/feared back in April.

By the time any of these vaccines are available to regular people beyond the HCW and first-responder circles, there will be both published peer review, but also the lived experience of tens of thousands more people who've had it, before most of us make our decisions. And it's looking like we may, if we research and scramble and are willing to go out of our way to do it, we may well have a choice between two or more vaccines that we want. That is AMAZING. 

Much to be thankful for here.

 

re the process of evaluating risks of side effects of the vaccine...

On 11/20/2020 at 8:36 PM, FuzzyCatz said:

...As a 50 year old, I would much prefer to take a vaccine that will likely have a 99.X% chance of working without significant adverse affects than roll the dice on a 10% chance of getting covid and hospitalization with possible long term affects when I have family history of viral caused heart disease and autoimmune disorders through my family tree.  I am watching the science and data closely.  The data is analyzed by an independent 3rd party (the DSMB), so I fully expect that it will be accurate to what we've seen when it is all released.   We will have another 6-8 months of data when the general public can start to be vaccinated in larger numbers and will continue to get data over the following months.  

I think there is plenty of reason to be watching closely for data and information as it is rolled out and be aware things could change.  I think for people who have health concerns contraindicate vaccination, I assume they will make decisions with their health care professionals.  I would hope they  are actively working to be very safe.  I don't think there is reason for the general public to be slapping conspiracy theories on pretty standard vaccine development.  I feel like a good indicator is a vaccine that the general medical community is happy to use itself. 

... as pp have noted, the proper risk/benefit to weigh is NOT "risk of vaccine vs risk of no-vaccine."  It is "risk of vaccine vs risk of COVID."  Because unlike, say, chicken pox or measles or other diseases that some folks opt not to vaccinate against... COVID in the US is not largely-under-control-in-most-population-groups the way chicken pox and measles are outside of occasional problematic pockets. In the aggregate, the US population has mostly achieved "herd immunity" for chicken pox and measles, whereas COVID in the US is spreading unchecked.

And given the reality of the anti-vax segment in our midst, as well as the conspiracy theories being actively promulgated, we will not get to 70++% herd immunity by either vaccine (because too many of us will refuse to get the vaccine) OR "natural occurrence" (because more and more evidence is suggesting that getting it once does not protect against getting it again). So unlike chicken pox, the folks opting not to vax cannot expect to be protected by low incidence in the overall population soon, or perhaps (depending on how well vaccine immunity holds -- thus far it's looking better than having had the disease, but it's really too early to tell) ever.

That makes for a very difficult decision for the segments of the population who genuinely have medical contraindications, which is absolutely real; and which makes ideological anti-vaxxers' decisions super frustrating. But the reality is: the US will not achieve COVID herd immunity for years, maybe ever. Therefore, the choice is not: risk of vaccine side effect vs no side effect. The choice is: risk of side effect, vs risk of COVID walking around a population in which COVID is still actively circulating.

 

 

 

 

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2 hours ago, PeterPan said:

I thought part of the gig with Trump's fast tracking was that he has PRE-BOUGHT millions of doses. I don't see how the manufacturer is going to have any to ship around the world. Or maybe they have other branches? I don't know. I was just under the impression these vaccines are tedious to manufacture.

I rhink I read they expect to be able to vaccinate, in the USA,  about 20 milion of the priority people (medical professionals, etc.?) during the 2nd half of December 2020?  Not sure if that is Moderna and/or Pfizer.

We are in Colombia and I am hoping we have some higher prioirty, with regard to shipments of a vaccine, because of our close relationship with the USA.  Fingers crossed but I have no idea how they will determine which countries to export to, and when to export to them.  I am waiting and continue to self quarantine until I get vaccinated...

OT? I read a couple of nights ago that Dolly Parton is a Patron of the Moderna vaccine.  She was asked to donate $ to Vanderbilt University and she donated one milllion dollars. That evolved into the Moderna vaccine 🙂

Edited by Lanny
correct spelling error
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17 minutes ago, Lanny said:

I rhink I read they expect to be able to vaccinate, in the USA,  about 20 milion of the priority people (medical professionals, etc.?) during the 2nd half of December 2020?  Not sure if that is Moderna and/or Pfizer.

Moderna and Pfizer will each have 20 million doses available in the US by the end of December, which is enough to vaccinate 20 million people. Alex Azar said he expects to have enough vaccine to cover everyone in the US who wants it by the end of the 2nd quarter.

 

17 minutes ago, Lanny said:

We are in Colombia and I am hoping we have some higher prioirty, with regard to shipments of a vaccine, because of our close relationship with the USA.  Fingers crossed but I have no idea how they will determine which countries to export to, and when to export to them.  I am waiting and continue to self quarantine until I get vaccinated...

Moderna and Pfizer have pre-sold most of their doses already. Which vaccines Colombia gets, and when, depends on which companies the government there placed preorders with and what the timeframe is in their contract. The US pre-ordered 100 million doses of each, with an option to buy an additional 400 million doses of Moderna and I think another 500 million from Pfizer. They also preordered 300 million doses of Astra Zeneca. If the AZ vaccine is as effective as the mRNA vaccines, then it's possible that the US won't exercise the options on the additional Moderna and Pfizer doses, since the AZ vaccine is vastly cheaper. 

 

 

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So Astra Zeneca just released some data, and it's... weird. Since the trial with an initial half-dose seems to have been much more effective, they are going to try to test that further in new trials.

The preliminary results on the AstraZeneca vaccine were based on a total of 131 Covid-19 cases in a study involving 11,363 participants. The findings were perplexing. Two full doses of the vaccine appeared to be only 62% effective at preventing disease, while a half dose, followed by a full dose, was about 90% effective. That latter analysis was conducted on a small subset of the study participants, only 2,741.

https://www.statnews.com/2020/11/23/astrazeneca-covid-19-vaccine-is-70-effective-on-average-early-data-show/

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