Outdoor COVID spread

[Not_a_Number]

I've stopped following this research, so I'm curious: what's the current state of the data on outdoor spread? Anyone know how often it happens? Anecdotes welcome, although I'd prefer some statistical evidence as well. 

[Teaching3bears]

There have been outbreaks due to outdoor events where I live: a small wedding and a family gathering.  I think, in one case, at least, people were not wearing masks.  I wonder about hugging and kissing too, if they were family.  Also, maybe many people touching the same serving spoon.  We had outbreaks with sports teams here as well but it was mentioned that people carpooled and went out to eat together after the game and that probably caused it.  From what I understand, outdoors is fairly safe if you distance, even without masks.  It also matters how long you are near others.  Experts say you won’t get it passing someone on the street but you are more likely if you are near them for over 15 minutes.

[prairiewindmomma]

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0013935120310677 (cough plumes with viral aerosols can survive for 30 min and travel 1-2km before diluting)

 

[prairiewindmomma]

a less terrifying study: https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/what-is-the-evidence-to-support-the-2-metre-social-distancing-rule-to-reduce-covid-19-transmission/

[Not_a_Number]

18 minutes ago, Teaching3bears said:

There have been outbreaks due to outdoor events where I live: a small wedding and a family gathering.  I think, in one case, at least, people were not wearing masks.  I wonder about hugging and kissing too, if they were family.  Also, maybe many people touching the same serving spoon.  We had outbreaks with sports teams here as well but it was mentioned that people carpooled and went out to eat together after the game and that probably caused it.  From what I understand, outdoors is fairly safe if you distance, even without masks.  It also matters how long you are near others.  Experts say you won’t get it passing someone on the street but you are more likely if you are near them for over 15 minutes.

Yeah, that was my impression as well. I was kind of hoping to have some more details, though. I remember in New Zealand, they had traced everything, and one transmission seemed to be a very brief surface transmission via elevator... so, unlikely, but possible. I'm curious if anyone has figured out anything like that about outdoor transmission -- like, has there ever been outdoor transmission from brief interactions? Did it involve surface transmission or not? 

[Shoeless]

I glanced through the sciencedirect article above.  I would be very surprised if being outdoors is a significant risk.  Like, it sounds like it's technically possible that an infected person could honk their virus particles out into the air and someone a kilometer away could come in contact with them.  But there's a lot of stuff that has to line up perfectly for that to be a realistic way for people to become infected.      

I suspect it's all the extra stuff that goes along with 'outdoor activities" that drives infection. Everyone headed to the lake around here this summer, citing that outdoor activities were perfectly safe. But no one just goes straight from their house to the lake and back.  They stop for gas, they get ice, they stop for snacks and a bathroom stop.  They pick up the friends they have "podded" with, and those friends are like "Oh, can we stop for cigarettes on the way there?" On the way home, they make a bathroom stop and grab take out for dinner.  

There's all these extra touch points that don't seem to get considered when people say "But outside activities are SAFE!". 

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, MissLemon said:

I glanced through the sciencedirect article above.  I would be very surprised if being outdoors is a significant risk.  Like, it sounds like it's technically possible that an infected person could honk their virus particles out into the air and someone a kilometer away could come in contact with them.  But there's a lot of stuff that has to line up perfectly for that to be a realistic way for people to become infected.      

Yeah, I'm not worried about things like that, to be honest. It's all very theoretical. Given that the protests in NY didn't spike the numbers (and fall certainly is spiking them, sigh), I'm going to remain cautiously optimistic that outdoor spread is minimal UNLESS someone provides evidence otherwise. 

 

Just now, MissLemon said:

I suspect it's all the extra stuff that goes along with 'outdoor activities" that drives infection. Everyone headed to the lake around here this summer, citing that outdoor activities were perfectly safe. But no one just goes straight from their house to the lake and back.  They stop for gas, they get ice, they stop for snacks and a bathroom stop.  They pick up the friends they have "podded" with, and those friends are like "Oh, can we stop for cigarettes on the way there?" On the way home, they make a bathroom stop and grab take out for dinner.  

There's all these extra touch points that don't seem to get considered when people say "But outside activities are SAFE!". 

Yeah, we don't do bathrooms out and about. We've thought about that a lot, and we aren't comfortable with that at all. 

[prairiewindmomma]

I agree.  We ended up with deciding to wear masks outside if we can see someone, or if we know we are likely to come in contact with someone, but not otherwise. We're still going outside.....but we aren't spending significant time outside with someone at close range.  In my range of friends, I do have friends who know their source of infection was an outside masked gathering, but it was one that happened over a course of a long afternoon, and masks were occasionally removed to snack.

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, prairiewindmomma said:

I agree.  We ended up with deciding to wear masks outside if we can see someone, or if we know we are likely to come in contact with someone, but not otherwise. We're still going outside.....but we aren't spending significant time outside with someone at close range.  In my range of friends, I do have friends who know their source of infection was an outside masked gathering, but it was one that happened over a course of a long afternoon, and masks were occasionally removed to snack.

Yeah, long outdoor gatherings are definitely not in the cards here. I'm still moving our location if people get within 10 feet of us... 

[Matryoshka]

2 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Yeah, I'm not worried about things like that, to be honest. It's all very theoretical. Given that the protests in NY didn't spike the numbers (and fall certainly is spiking them, sigh), I'm going to remain cautiously optimistic that outdoor spread is minimal UNLESS someone provides evidence otherwise. 

Yeah, I'm a bit suspicious about a lot of these 'outdoor' gatherings having people going inside to use the restroom, and possibly stopping and chatting while in there as well, or yeah, carpooling there/back.  Or close-talking without masks, which is also not good, even outdoors.

I'm a bit concerned about the 'virus particles may stick to smoke from fire-pits' but am going to think that maybe we then just need to wear the masks and not share meals even outside - which is a bummer, as I was hoping for a much-reduced Thanksgiving with just immediate family outdoors.  Guess we'll wait for a warm day...???

[Shoeless]

Just now, Not_a_Number said:

Yeah, I'm not worried about things like that, to be honest. It's all very theoretical. Given that the protests in NY didn't spike the numbers (and fall certainly is spiking them, sigh), I'm going to remain cautiously optimistic that outdoor spread is minimal UNLESS someone provides evidence otherwise. 

 

Yeah, we don't do bathrooms out and about. We've thought about that a lot, and we aren't comfortable with that at all. 

The science direct article mentioned that spread via virus carried on the wind could be an explanation for why covid numbers rose in the southwest this summer. I feel like a lot of people don't realize how miserably, blisteringly hot it is in the southwestern US in the summer. People don't want to spend time outdoors when it's 105+ if they have the option to spend time in air conditioning.  

[bookbard]

This is anecdotal, but I read this article about a guy early on in Sydney who had Covid, went to the pub, sat outdoors at either end of a long table, so further than 1.5m, and the friend still got it. So it's possible - but of course, there might have been other factors that they didn't recall at the time, something they both touched or something.

[Ausmumof3]

The most recent thing I can find is that a Chinese study showed that out of 7,324 cases only one was linked to outdoor transmission.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-summer-of-covid-19-taught-scientists-about-indoor-vs-outdoor-transmission/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

sorry the site is political and also I can’t find the original study right now and need to get moving with other life stuff, will look later if I can 

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The most recent thing I can find is that a Chinese study showed that out of 7,324 cases only one was linked to outdoor transmission.

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-a-summer-of-covid-19-taught-scientists-about-indoor-vs-outdoor-transmission/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

sorry the site is political and also I can’t find the original study right now and need to get moving with other life stuff, will look later if I can 

I think that study was during lockdown, if it's the one I'm thinking of, though? So they weren't spending any time outside... 

[mathnerd]

2 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Yeah, that was my impression as well. I was kind of hoping to have some more details, though. I remember in New Zealand, they had traced everything, and one transmission seemed to be a very brief surface transmission via elevator... so, unlikely, but possible. I'm curious if anyone has figured out anything like that about outdoor transmission -- like, has there ever been outdoor transmission from brief interactions? Did it involve surface transmission or not? 

This kind of study or any data from such studies is impossible to find because it is very very difficult to pinpoint a very brief surface transmission via elevators and such. If a person who is self-isolating or staying at home got sick with Covid, their doctor would never suspect transmission through air droplets in elevators, apartment lobbies etc. Instead they would suspect that the patient was somehow exposed during grocery shopping, through open windows, HVAC vents, food delivery people, during cab rides, doctor appointments etc. I believe that the NZ case was traced to an elevator because they spent the effort to watch CC TV camera footage (in a quarantine facility?). That kind of scrutiny, analysis etc is simply not there, at least in America today.

That being said, I heard that one public high school in a neighboring county has covid cases in their football team that is practicing outside. They are not sure if the transmission occurred at practice or during non-practice hours. Most of the kids involved had light cases (could be that the viral load was small due to outdoor and sunny conditions) and seem to have bounced back.

Edited November 12, 2020 by mathnerd

[Ausmumof3]

27 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I think that study was during lockdown, if it's the one I'm thinking of, though? So they weren't spending any time outside... 

Hmm I’m not sure.  I can’t find the original study but that would be an issue.  I suspect a lot of cases could go down as “unknown source” with outdoor transmission because they would be much harder to track.

[Ausmumof3]

Still can’t find the Chinese study

I did find this - I don’t have the time or mental energy for it today but a quick skim looked like it’s worth reading

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/medrxiv/early/2020/09/10/2020.09.04.20188417.1.full.pdf

[Teaching3bears]

In my area they cannot determine how a person got it for about half of cases though they are saying that most cases are happening at social gatherings and at peoples’ homes.  

I would think elevators would be risky-the air, the buttons, the small space, unless they clean the buttons, do something about air circulation and limit passengers.  I saw a news clip of a woman saying she was waiting over half an hour for the elevator in the mornings because she lived in a big high-rise and they had to limit passengers.  That’s hard.

We were at a nature trail the other day and it was packed bumper to bumper with people.  Maybe 200 families or groups of friends.  Before the pandemic you would see 0-2 families.  It kind of felt nice to see so many people but nobody was wearing masks.  There were signs asking people to walk in only one direction and to keep distance.  

 

[Melissa in Australia]

Here in Victoria most if the spread was from family gatherings, and nursing home spread.

That is why there are still limits on how many people can visit another house. Only 2 adults and 2 children from the same residence to visit another house, and that can be the only visitors for that day. 

I think it is up to 20 people can meet at an outside place, with masks and social distancing. 

 

[Melissa in Australia]

There was a mystery case in Melbourne where 2 people had coronavirus, they both lived on the same suburban block, but different streets. They did not have joining properties and did not know each other. They had no overlapping connection. It at was just before the strict lockdown in July 

[mathnerd]

4 hours ago, kand said:

(quoting is wonky, I’m responding to that last paragraph above from mathnerd):

is it possible to team was using the locker rooms?

No. In our area, schools are not allowing the use of locker rooms or even water drinking stations. Students are dropped off and picked up after practice as campuses are closed and only meet outside for socially-distanced sports. They also are asking students to wear gloves during practice and are limiting any group work to only 2 kids who should always maintain distance (I am told that they were all wearing masks as well).