Living in a Covid Hotspot

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, Matryoshka said:

Well, ugh.  I also now need more information about this, as I've spent the last three days preparing an area in the yard for a fire pit...

I'm going to start a thread. We've been going to the park more, and while I insist the kids stay FAR away from people, I also let them take their masks off (I figure if we're in the middle of a field, 20+ feet away, it's fine.) But I'd like to know more. 

[Wheres Toto]

My area of NJ has a percent positivity around 11%, and an Rt of 1.27.   Yet Murphy isn't really doing anything.  He was so good about locking down earlier in the year, and nice and slow about reopening.  I don't know why he's being so wishy-washy now. 

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, DorothyNJ said:

My area of NJ has a percent positivity around 11%, and an Rt of 1.27.   Yet Murphy isn't really doing anything.  He was so good about locking down earlier in the year, and nice and slow about reopening.  I don't know why he's being so wishy-washy now. 

I would guess because people are tired, and because there is no guidance, so it's HARD to insist on more sacrifice when half the country thinks this is overblown 😕 

NJ already has the highest death rate in the nation, followed only by my state... 

[Wheres Toto]

1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

I would guess because people are tired, and because there is no guidance, so it's HARD to insist on more sacrifice when half the country thinks this is overblown 😕 

NJ already has the highest death rate in the nation, followed only by my state... 

I wish he would just follow along with Cuomo again if he doesn't want to think for himself.  

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, DorothyNJ said:

I wish he would just follow along with Cuomo again if he doesn't want to think for himself.  

I don't know if Cuomo is doing enough, either. I'm glad they are trying the clusters, but the positivity is still going up. 

I basically like Cuomo, but I'm afraid it'll be too little. 

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, kand said:

Interestingly, simultaneously very suspicious of government but on board with the current form of government authoritarianism surging. 

Which current form? 

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, kand said:

I don’t want to get too political on the main board. 

Ah, I see. That seems to be a common combination, alas. 

[Wheres Toto]

7 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I don't know if Cuomo is doing enough, either. I'm glad they are trying the clusters, but the positivity is still going up. 

I basically like Cuomo, but I'm afraid it'll be too little. 

Cuomo did just set some new restrictions.  Murphy also did the curfew for restaurants and bars, but Cuomo also restricted gatherings to 10 people.  

I do feel doubt that it will be enough but if private gatherings are the biggest problem, what can they do?

I guess I understand their dilemma.  

[Ausmumof3]

42 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

@Ausmumof3 and @kand -- what are the online commenters you know in real life like?? I know Ausmumof3 said "nuts," but how about more details? 😄

Yeah it was a bit vague.  I mean the one I saw ive only had conversation with two or three times.  She’s kind of happy and bubbly but very hard to follow a conversation with and it seems quite apparent after five minutes that something is not quite right.  I’m don’t know her well enough or want to do an armchair diagnosis though.  Actually I shouldn’t have used the word nuts at all as it’s most likely some kind of disability and i don’t normally use the word in that way.  Either that or some drug use history possible. It was kind of bizarre because all the people who were arguing with her or whatever were right but I kind of wanted to tell them all ... hey just be nice this isn’t fair.  But of course spreading misinformation about Covid is dangerous so I can’t really say she’s harmless.

[prairiewindmomma]

IDK, I see comments from friends also, and they tend to hit one of three categories:

1. Friends who are looking at the same facts, and fundamentally disagree about what should be done as a result.  These friends tend to be the selfish ones..... right to do as I please > health and safety of others.  The selfishness is gauged in terms of mental health sometimes (I'm just so stir crazy and lonely at home!) but it translates into them shopping and eating out daily with friends.

2. Friends who are covid-deniers----they think their immune system is all that they need, and modern medicine is out to destroy them

3. People who watch a certain news channel and repeat what is said there

I get that covid fatigue is a very real thing. This is HARD. But I have the gut feeling that a lot of opinions aren't going to change until the bodies start stacking up.  It's our family goal not to be in the stacks, iykwim.

And, honestly, the people in category #1....sometimes I think we just come to different conclusions.  One friend quotes studies that schools aren't creating super spreader events, but that disease activity is just reflective of community spread.  That's true.  It's also true that if my kids aren't active in the community their relative risk of catching the disease is much lower than if I sent them to school.  Spread does happen in schools....it just happens at the same rate as it does in the community. So, what do you do with that?

 

[frogger]

18 minutes ago, prairiewindmomma said:

. But I have the gut feeling that a lot of opinions aren't going to change until the bodies start stacking up.  It's our family goal not to be in the stacks, iykwim.

 

Sadly, I think that's true. I also think it will take stacks of people they personally know. Because this hits some familes and communities harder than others, I worry even after all this you will still have anti-vax hold outs or other echo chambers. 😢

[prairiewindmomma]

10 minutes ago, frogger said:

Sadly, I think that's true. I also think it will take stacks of people they personally know. Because this hits some familes and communities harder than others, I worry even after all this you will still have anti-vax hold outs or other echo chambers. 😢

Yeah, watching this play out in my extended family....

[happi duck]

I don't understand the "I don't care" attitude or the "it's their own decision" attitude.

During ww2 in England wasn't there times when everyone had to have lights out and windows covered to avoid being bombed?  If your neighbor "didn't care" your neighborhood could be bombed.  You wouldn't think it was "their decision" you'd say something!

[kbutton]

4 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I had a weird experience recently where I read the comments in the news and found someone I know commenting.  This person is completely nuts in person.  It made me wonder how many of the people commenting on random news stories are like her and if that’s why the comments are so awful.

FB shows me the comments of people I know on news articles. They are nice in person, but they are really, really down the rabbit hole in their comments. 

3 hours ago, kand said:

Exactly. Several weeks back on here, I responded to a couple posters from Ohio who said everything was fine there and their numbers were low and case mild with Ohio charts showing an alarming rise in hospitalizations, but there was no acknowledgement that that was a problem. Now the death rate there is rising rapidly as well. 100% predictable, yet people just aren’t willing to make changes before reaching that point, in order to avoid reaching that point. Maddening and tragic. 

Do you have any other information about this? Were there any indoor after parties, or anything else, or does it seem like the transmission truly happened outside? I keep hearing about cases where they think outdoor transmission is happening, but I can’t seem to get enough information to confirm and see the circumstances.  We only ever see anyone outside, and even then we wear masks, but I’m still hungry for more data on what is and isn’t safe outdoors. I do wonder about the fire itself. There was talk at one point about the virus being able to adhere to smoke particles and travel and that it might actually be worse near campfires. That will be important to know as we head into winter with everyone preparing their backyard fire pits.

Some of us contradicted the "all is well" reports, but maybe we weren't as obvious. You are right though that things are a lot worse now.

I don't have details about the bonfire spread. I don't know if it was our youth group that was the party or some other party. I know the pictures from the event didn't seem to involve distancing or masks.

I would not be surprised if even the outdoor parties involve people going in and out of a house for food and/or bathrooms. A lot of people here think that they don't need a mask if they are outside or distanced. It's just one precaution allowed at a time with them. 

[TravelingChris]

WEll it took the CDC a very long time to decide that mask wearing properly helps you not get COVID.  That should have been the message all along.  The other thing that should have happened is an enormous ramp up of actually rather effective masks.  It is bad that I wear more effective masks than almost all the medical personal I meet with.

[Corraleno]

14 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Well, i'm in one of those "it's fine" states..and it is because our governor is a crazy man who seems to be thinking herd immunity, let er rip. 

He recently made it illegal for the counties to enforce mask mandates, if that tells you how wrong headed he is. And our state has so many elderly, it's bonkers. 

My county is at 10% (although they haven't posted todays numbers yet...they usually go up at 11am), state over 8%, and of those people getting it we have a 3% hospitalization rate and 1% fatality rate. 

Oh and we have NO system determining when or if we lock anything down. No concrete numbers to base decisions on. 

Have you seen the latest hire for DeSantis's covid management team? 

DeSantis's New Data Analyst: An Anti-Mask Sports Blogger with No Credentials

This guy is an Uber driver and sports podcaster in Ohio, with ZERO background in statistical analysis, let alone epidemiology or public health. But he acquired a large following on Twitter after he started posting error-filled graphs and charts he made up in Excel "proving" that deaths are being exaggerated and masks don't work. 

From the linked article:

"Lamb’s former colleagues in the Ohio sports world, where he previously worked as a blogger and podcast host, have characterized him in interviews with the Herald and Tampa Bay Times as “a nobody,” “an amateur,” an “Internet weirdo,” and a “crackpot.” The only education listed on his LinkedIn profile is a one-year stint at the Ohio Center for Broadcasting from 2000 to 2001.

The blogger found a modicum of prominence in Ohio when he was covering domestic violence allegations against former Ohio State assistant football coach Zach Smith. Donnelly described Lamb as a “mouthpiece for Zach Smith” who published attacks against the coach’s ex-wife, Courtney Smith, after she filed a restraining order and accused Smith of throwing her against a wall while she was pregnant. (OSU fired Smith in 2018 and he later pleaded guilty to disorderly conduct; he was sentenced to spend 20 days in jail after violating his ex-wife’s restraining order in December.)

But Lamb gained most of his large Twitter following when he began posting colorful spreadsheets and graphs generated in Excel, as communities across the United States went into shutdowns because of the pandemic. Donnelly described many of Lamb’s covid-19 posts as “conspiracy theories and half-baked crackpot data” that were “constantly being proven wrong.”

[Laura Corin]

12 hours ago, happi duck said:

I don't understand the "I don't care" attitude or the "it's their own decision" attitude.

During ww2 in England wasn't there times when everyone had to have lights out and windows covered to avoid being bombed?  If your neighbor "didn't care" your neighborhood could be bombed.  You wouldn't think it was "their decision" you'd say something!

Yes, that was the case.  However the 'Blitz Spirit' was not held by all: there was a lot of initial disbelief and continuing selfish action.  Many children who were evacuated from London early in the war were brought back before the bombing actually ramped up.  And there was widespread profiteering in illegally-obtained food in order to circumvent rationing.  People are people, even when the bombers are actually overhead each night. 

And class and money still talked: the West End hotels had five-star air-raid shelters whilst ordinary people slept on Tube platforms; landed estates, where the lord of the manor was probably also the local magistrate, illicitly raised animals and openly fished their trout streams.  Even my mother, whose family wasn't wealthy, had access to a small fishing boat in Devon, and therefore (eta legally) had a very different diet from people who did not.

Edited November 12, 2020 by Laura Corin

[ktgrok]

10 hours ago, Corraleno said:

Have you seen the latest hire for DeSantis's covid management team? 

DeSantis's New Data Analyst: An Anti-Mask Sports Blogger with No Credentials

 

I have no words (fit to print) to describe my feelings about DeSantis and his war against reality. 

[Not_a_Number]

33 minutes ago, ktgrok said:

I have no words (fit to print) to describe my feelings about DeSantis and his war against reality. 

It’s like your state WANTS to catch up to NY’s death rate...

Edited November 12, 2020 by Not_a_Number

[ktgrok]

42 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

It’s like your state WANTS to catch up to NY’s death rate...

Well, areas here are pretty much just NYC south....

[PinkTulip]

And my state just announced today’s total new cases is close to 25% higher than the previous high record. Our community transmission rate is close to 25%, and our hospital ICUs are nearly 85% full. Just had a statewide state mask mandate enacted earlier this week for the first time. I’m so frustrated with my community who doesn’t seem to understand that no, your high schoolers SHOULDN’T be hanging out every weekend right now, and all the book clubs and social events should either be canceled or moved online. Ugh! 

[historically accurate]

DD's doctor's office has "multiple employees" out due to Covid now. Back to telehealth for at least 2 weeks - ugh. She has 2x weekly appointments in the building. Now I'm wondering if I should get her tested. 

Youngest DD told me her youth group (where she is the only one who virtually dials in is having "Bring a Friend" week next week. Um, why do you want more people in the buildings? There are so many cases in the schools, they just switched to giving us the total in the county's schools instead of listing all of the schools who had cases. 

DH has been called in every morning this week. So tired of the stress of worrying about everyone. 

[EmilyGF]

My parents just moved to one of the COVID hotspots (top on both lists). My dad listens to a lot of right-wing radio, though he is law-abiding and will wear masks/distance/etc when it is required by law. He was going stir-crazy in the place they lived before (very safe).

It is hard, period. COVID destroyed his business so he was forced into retirement and is now depressed. He's older quite healthy, but mom has a number of preexisting conditions, in addition to being older. Sister and her family live in their new town, and, because of how low the cases were for a while, I think she (and my dad) feels like it was a big case of the boy who cried wolf. 

My mom is more careful than my dad, but there is only so much you can do when you live with someone. 

Emily

[regentrude]

54 minutes ago, PinkTulip said:

I’m so frustrated with my community who doesn’t seem to understand that no, your high schoolers SHOULDN’T be hanging out every weekend right now, and all the book clubs and social events should either be canceled or moved online. Ugh! 

Some parents in my community hosted a non-school sponsored homecoming dance at a local restaurant for 175 highschoolers. Multiple attendees were Covid positive. Our health department is now completely swamped with the attempt to contact trace and can't handle anything else.
I am so angry. What are these people thinking? (And this is one more reason why I can't possibly participate in the 21-days-without-complaining thread)

Edited November 12, 2020 by regentrude

[katilac]

14 hours ago, TravelingChris said:

WEll it took the CDC a very long time to decide that mask wearing properly helps you not get COVID.  That should have been the message all along.  

I don't think it's a matter of deciding - you don't know what you don't know, and we're still less than a year out from the discovery of covid-19, and less than that from it spreading widely. 

Knowing that it probably helps the wearer also is helping me to be less cranky, lol. 

55 minutes ago, historically accurate said:

Youngest DD told me her youth group (where she is the only one who virtually dials in is having "Bring a Friend" week next week.  

They . . . what? Seriously? 

 

[historically accurate]

Just now, katilac said:

I don't think it's a matter of deciding - you don't know what you don't know, and we're still less than a year out from the discovery of covid-19, and less than that from it spreading widely. 

Knowing that it probably helps the wearer also is helping me to be less cranky, lol. 

They . . . what? Seriously? 

 

I thought for sure she misunderstood, so I went to the email the leader sends out weekly with the topic - Yep, DD is correct... I'm trying to decide on whether to be "that parent" who says, "Hey, what are y'all thinking?!?"

Don't forget that next week is our bring a friend fun night! Students who bring a friend will be entered into a raffle with their friend for an awesome prize! 

[PinkTulip]

34 minutes ago, regentrude said:

Some parents in my community hosted a non-school sponsored homecoming dance at a local restaurant for 175 highschoolers. Multiple attendees were Covid positive. Our health department is now completely swamped with the attempt to contact trace and can't handle anything else.
I am so angry. What are these people thinking? (And this is one more reason why I can't possibly participate in the 21-days-without-complaining thread)

Yes! This! This is happening in my community, too. Homecoming dance, Halloween dance, making plans for an upcoming Christmas dance. My son is a senior in high school, and fortunately is as appalled at this as his parents are, so won’t participate in these. But these are the kids he sits next to or near in class (school still in person here 4 days/week). 
 

I couldn’t possibly go without complaining during this pandemic - it’s been much too stressful! 

[Acadie]

57 minutes ago, katilac said:

I don't think it's a matter of deciding - you don't know what you don't know, and we're still less than a year out from the discovery of covid-19, and less than that from it spreading widely. 

Knowing that it probably helps the wearer also is helping me to be less cranky, lol. 

I think public health officials intentionally mislead the public about this, and that it was a huge mistake which only further compromised public trust. They absolutely DID know masks protect the wearer--that's why they tried to prevent the public from rushing to buy them, because they knew health care providers needed the protection. 

Now they're acting like it's news that masks help the wearer. Sure, the primary purpose of a surgical mask is to protect a patient in surgery, but it provides some protection to the wearer as well. Obviously an N95 provides much better protection to the wearer.

 

 

[Not_a_Number]

27 minutes ago, Acadie said:

I think public health officials intentionally mislead the public about this, and that it was a huge mistake which only further compromised public trust. They absolutely DID know masks protect the wearer--that's why they tried to prevent the public from rushing to buy them, because they knew health care providers needed the protection. 

Now they're acting like it's news that masks help the wearer. Sure, the primary purpose of a surgical mask is to protect a patient in surgery, but it provides some protection to the wearer as well. Obviously an N95 provides much better protection to the wearer.

I think there was some thinking that it might not help the public that much without other PPE, because most transmission might be surface transmission, and they knew that healthcare workers needed it. 

I do think there was some willful misleading going on, but not exactly lying. More like shading the truth. It was the wrong thing, in my opinion, though. 

[katilac]

40 minutes ago, Acadie said:

I think public health officials intentionally mislead the public about this, and that it was a huge mistake which only further compromised public trust. They absolutely DID know masks protect the wearer--that's why they tried to prevent the public from rushing to buy them, because they knew health care providers needed the protection. 

Now they're acting like it's news that masks help the wearer. Sure, the primary purpose of a surgical mask is to protect a patient in surgery, but it provides some protection to the wearer as well. Obviously an N95 provides much better protection to the wearer.

Oh yeah, Fauci has publicly acknowledged that they weren't recommended due to shortage of PPE. I think we've all paid a heavy price for that bit of trickery, because so many people use it as the justification for not following any additional recommendations. Ironically, if they had simply asked people to leave PPE for the health workers, I'm sure everyone would have insisted on a mask, and probably been more cautious overall. We are a contrary bunch. 

I don't know if they knew for sure that masks protect the wearer,  or even that it was likely - there was a lot of emphasis on surfaces at first, and I think that was a genuine thought process. But regardless of specifically why, they did mislead the public and it did erode public trust. 

 

Edited November 12, 2020 by katilac

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, katilac said:

But regardless of specifically why, they did mislead the public and it did erode public trust. 

I don't know. I think that if they hadn't done that, they would have gotten something else wrong unintentionally, and as long as there was interest in eroding trust in them, it would have been done. There's just as much pointing of fingers about Fauci sounding less worried in January, after all... people react just as badly to people updating their data as they do to actual lies.

[ktgrok]

What was said or not said months ago is no excuse NOW to not be wearing a mask. When you know better, you do better. We all know now that wearing a mask is important. They've been saying it for months and months. 

Anyone refusing to wear a mask NOW because health officials said they wrong thing THEN is about as reasonable as my 3 yr old having a tantrum. 

Spreading more germs now out of spite towards health officials is ridiculous. 

[BlsdMama]

On 11/11/2020 at 4:52 PM, kand said:

The one I saw that I know is someone I only knew from co-op and she was very high maintenance and I know from Nextdoor that she’s a bit conspiracy-theoryish. Interestingly, simultaneously very suspicious of government but on board with the current form of government authoritarianism surging. 

I have been thinking for a while that conspiracy theories are very pleasing to some.  Imagine if you are part of an elite group of "informed" people who realize some "truth" that others (sheeple) are not privy to because of their lack of ability to think.  That feeling of superiority keeps you from exploring their ideas while being incredibly self-gratifying.  

On 11/11/2020 at 5:29 PM, prairiewindmomma said:

IDK, I see comments from friends also, and they tend to hit one of three categories:

1. Friends who are looking at the same facts, and fundamentally disagree about what should be done as a result.  These friends tend to be the selfish ones..... right to do as I please > health and safety of others.  The selfishness is gauged in terms of mental health sometimes (I'm just so stir crazy and lonely at home!) but it translates into them shopping and eating out daily with friends.

2. Friends who are covid-deniers----they think their immune system is all that they need, and modern medicine is out to destroy them

3. People who watch a certain news channel and repeat what is said there

I get that covid fatigue is a very real thing. This is HARD. But I have the gut feeling that a lot of opinions aren't going to change until the bodies start stacking up.  It's our family goal not to be in the stacks, iykwim.

And, honestly, the people in category #1....sometimes I think we just come to different conclusions.  One friend quotes studies that schools aren't creating super spreader events, but that disease activity is just reflective of community spread.  That's true.  It's also true that if my kids aren't active in the community their relative risk of catching the disease is much lower than if I sent them to school.  Spread does happen in schools....it just happens at the same rate as it does in the community. So, what do you do with that?

 

I agree with your grouping - I think that we categorize our findings if we think analytically.

For example, both "sides" recognize, yes, people die of Covid.  One recognizes that old & weak are the main "victims" and thus come to the conclusion they ought to isolate and our behavior will have no impact on them if we go on living life.  It's a correct observation in that the old and weak are more likely to succumb, but a wrong conclusion - that normal carrying on has no impact on the old and weak. (Nurses who provide care will catch Covid from kids in school, the old need to get groceries, the weak have spouses who must work, etc.)  

2. Has a sub category among Christians and it is this (which I've experienced first hand unfortunately) that strong Christians have faith rather than fear and that fear=masking and/or isolating.  It is unfair, untrue, and painful.  I promise you there is a difference between fear and wisdom.  You wanna experience fear? Find out you have ALS.  You wanna see prudence? Wear a mask to the grocery store. One is not like the other and I'm beginning to resent being lumped in the same.

I am comfortable with those who come to a different conclusion, but are still taking in data.  I'm remarkably annoyed by the ones who insist to continue with blinders on now that data has changed because they will experience some sort of cognitive dissonance if they take in new data and attempt to justify their previous and continued behavior.  FB is making me realize I might need to get rid of FB if I am to enjoy company of some people post-Covid.

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, BlsdMama said:

I have been thinking for a while that conspiracy theories are very pleasing to some.  Imagine if you are part of an elite group of "informed" people who realize some "truth" that others (sheeple) are not privy to because of their lack of ability to think.  That feeling of superiority keeps you from exploring their ideas while being incredibly self-gratifying.  
 

That is exactly right. Conspiracy theories have high psychological pay off. It’s like eating only sugar, lol — feels good in the moment, terrible for you in the long run.

 

1 minute ago, BlsdMama said:

I agree with your grouping - I think that we categorize our findings if we think analytically.

For example, both "sides" recognize, yes, people die of Covid.  One recognizes that old & weak are the main "victims" and thus come to the conclusion they ought to isolate and our behavior will have no impact on them if we go on living life.  It's a correct observation in that the old and weak are more likely to succumb, but a wrong conclusion - that normal carrying on has no impact on the old and weak. (Nurses who provide care will catch Covid from kids in school, the old need to get groceries, the weak have spouses who must work, etc.)  

2. Has a sub category among Christians and it is this (which I've experienced first hand unfortunately) that strong Christians have faith rather than fear and that fear=masking and/or isolating.  It is unfair, untrue, and painful.  I promise you there is a difference between fear and wisdom.  You wanna experience fear? Find out you have ALS.  You wanna see prudence? Wear a mask to the grocery store. One is not like the other and I'm beginning to resent being lumped in the same.

I am comfortable with those who come to a different conclusion, but are still taking in data.  I'm remarkably annoyed by the ones who insist to continue with blinders on now that data has changed because they will experience some sort of cognitive dissonance if they take in new data and attempt to justify their previous and continued behavior.  FB is making me realize I might need to get rid of FB if I am to enjoy company of some people post-Covid.

Exactly. People are entitled to their own values and opinions. They are not entitled to their own data.

[cintinative]

I feel like I am having deja vu with Florida when we were there this summer.  I was locked down at my brothers' watching the numbers go up and up.  This time, though, it seems like hospitalizations are going up faster??  

From an Ohio epidemiologist: ""Wednesday we had ~6,500 new cases reported here in Ohio. Yesterday, 7,101. Today, 8,071. A month ago, we were at about 1,500. Two weeks ago, about 2,500. A week ago, 4,000. This is the type of growth that Dr. Acton was talking about in March--we're here now. Stay home whenever possible, mask up when you're out, and seriously, re-consider Thanksgiving plans that have to do with others outside of your current bubble."

There is still a day youth retreat tomorrow and I don't know of anyone holding their kid back. I don't understand why we are still having it.

Edited November 13, 2020 by cintinative

[MEmama]

Maine had a record high 243 cases today. Our 7 day average is 5x that of a month ago. Over the summer we had days with single digit new cases, upwards to 20 some.

It is shocking—if not surprising since this is what we’ve been told all along will happen—how fast the growth is occurring. Many of our rural hospitals are going to overrun very soon. 😞 

[Not_a_Number]

19 minutes ago, MEmama said:

Maine had a record high 243 cases today. Our 7 day average is 5x that of a month ago. Over the summer we had days with single digit new cases, upwards to 20 some.

It is shocking—if not surprising since this is what we’ve been told all along will happen—how fast the growth is occurring. Many of our rural hospitals are going to overrun very soon. 😞 

This was always the price of not really getting things under control over the summer 😞 . And the focus on reopening was never helpful. We were always going to be here, so we should have just been honest with ourselves, made MAXIMAL outdoor space for restaurants in the summer, and assumed lots of things would need to be shut in the late fall. 

But then you'd probably need government assistance for those businesses to make that fly, and given state budgets, that has to be a federal issue. 

Edited November 13, 2020 by Not_a_Number

[MEmama]

6 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

This was always the price of not really getting things under control over the summer 😞 . And the focus on reopening was never helpful. We were always going to be here, so we should have just been honest with ourselves, made MAXIMAL outdoor space for restaurants in the summer, and assumed lots of things would need to be shut in the late fall. 

But then you'd probably need government assistance for those businesses to make that fly, and given state budgets, that has to be a federal issue. 

Northern New England was very fortunate this summer. Truly it wasn’t unusual to see just a handful of new daily cases, despite the influx of visitors and summer people.

Maine did a stellar job keeping numbers down—our governor has led with a steady hand, and in the populous areas, anyway, people mask and take it really seriously. From what I could tell, so did the summer residents—judging by traffic and people I know, it seemed they were sticking closer to their summer residences and not traveling about as much as usual.

The towns in my area (one of the more populous) opened up outdoor seating for restaurants, found more spacious venues for the farm markets, and took full advantage of our open spaces. Unfortunately, as is the trend throughout the country, the more rural areas weren’t as careful, insisting they didn’t need to be. Guess where most of the cases in the state are now?

I'd say remarkably my state DID have it relatively under control over the summer. We were assisted, no doubt, by an overall lack of air conditioning, which surely played a role in indoor spread in other parts of the country, and by the fact we are an “outdoorsy” state—even our “urban” would be considered small town almost everywhere else. 
 

I agree we need to have assumed fall/winter reality would be different, and I’m baffled by the insistence that we just keep on moving forward. I just read that Portland schools want to *expand* the number of days per week kids are in school, just as numbers are skyrocketing. Winter sports including *indoor track* are being considered, even though no open indoor tracks exist  in the state this year (attached to colleges, which are closed) and they are a cesspool of germs in the best of seasons.
 

The lack of foresight everywhere is dismaying. 😞 

[Not_a_Number]

4 minutes ago, MEmama said:

I'd say remarkably my state DID have it relatively under control over the summer. We were assisted, no doubt, by an overall lack of air conditioning, which surely played a role in indoor spread in other parts of the country, and by the fact we are an “outdoorsy” state—even our “urban” would be considered small town almost everywhere else. 

Oh, I think all of the Northeast had a serious leg up during the summer. All of the states were doing quite well, I think. And you'd EXPECT that, given the lack of central air and how much time people spend outdoors, as you say. 

But again, this was all completely expected. We should have just behaved as if the summer was going to be great and the fall was going to be hideous, because that has policy repercussions. 

And, I keep saying this, but if a random poster on a message board knows this, I really wish government officials would know this. But of course, states are kind of making this up as they go along, which isn't great -- they aren't experts at this. 

Edited November 13, 2020 by Not_a_Number

[Lecka]

A nearby county in Oklahoma has 192 cases per 100,000.  
 

My county went over 50 per 100,000 for the first time.  
 

My Mom said today she doesn’t think we will do anything for Christmas.  We’re still planning to do outdoor Thanksgiving (at this point) but it will be too cold at Christmas.  

 

[Kassia]

My county has 323.55 cases per 100K and 393 for my zip code.  What does that really mean as far as how bad things are here?  

 

" (averaged to per week based on two weeks of data)" ETA

 

 

 

Edited November 14, 2020 by Kassia

[Matryoshka]

1 minute ago, Kassia said:

My county has 323.55 cases per 100K and 393 for my zip code.  What does that really mean as far as how bad things are here?  

Per day, per week, or... ?

If that's a per-day avg, that's starting to be hair-on-fire territory...

[cintinative]

3 minutes ago, Kassia said:

My county has 323.55 cases per 100K and 393 for my zip code.  What does that really mean as far as how bad things are here?  

 

 

 

Our governor said that high spread per the CDC is anything above 100 per 100K.

Our county is now 453 cases per 100K (averaged to per week based on two weeks of data)  

Edited November 14, 2020 by cintinative
more specific numbers

[Kassia]

8 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

Per day, per week, or... ?

If that's a per-day avg, that's starting to be hair-on-fire territory...

Oh, excellent question!  I don't even know.  I live in the same state as @cintinative and probably get the data from the same place, so maybe she can give us the answer?  

 

[kbutton]

9 minutes ago, cintinative said:

Our governor said that high spread per the CDC is anything above 100 per 100K.

Our county is now 453 cases per 100K (averaged to per week based on two weeks of data)  

I didn't look up our stats, but I think we're there also. I know that the two counties that our local hospital straddles are more rural than yours, but together, our numbers have sometimes been surpassing yours. Several big hospitals in those two counties are near the line between both counties. 

[Lecka]

Well, I just called Thanksgiving.  My family is having nuclear family only.  My sister thinks she will do the same.  My mom and my aunt will be able to do outside for five people if they want, pretty easily, at my aunt’s house.  
 

Before it was going to be 17 outside at my house — numbers are just too high for me to be comfortable. 

[kbutton]

3 minutes ago, Kassia said:

Oh, excellent question!  I don't even know.  I live in the same state as @cintinative and probably get the data from the same place, so maybe she can give us the answer?  

 

14 days, two days old. I found this on google surprisingly quickly. https://coronavirus.ohio.gov/static/OPHASM/Case-Rates-by-County.pdf

13 minutes ago, cintinative said:

Our governor said that high spread per the CDC is anything above 100 per 100K.

Our county is now 453 cases per 100K (averaged to per week based on two weeks of data)  

According to the .pdf, the counties I just referenced are both higher incidence than that, though one is only by a tiny bit. 

 

[kbutton]

1 minute ago, Lecka said:

Well, I just called Thanksgiving.  My family is having nuclear family only.  My sister thinks she will do the same.  My mom and my aunt will be able to do outside for five people if they want, pretty easily, at my aunt’s house.  
 

Before it was going to be 17 outside at my house — numbers are just too high for me to be comfortable. 

Hugs. 

I think we might go back to virtual music lessons even though our teacher keeps doctor's office standards and doesn't have a lot of people in and out. ETA: no comparison; just thinking about what behavior I can change.

Edited November 14, 2020 by kbutton

[cintinative]

10 minutes ago, kbutton said:

I didn't look up our stats, but I think we're there also. I know that the two counties that our local hospital straddles are more rural than yours, but together, our numbers have sometimes been surpassing yours. Several big hospitals in those two counties are near the line between both counties. 

You have to look it up by county still I think?  I am in Warren. Butler county is a tad higher, and Montgomery is a tad higher than that. 

ETA: I was looking at hospital utilization for our region (6, yours is 3??) and it's bad. =(

Edited November 14, 2020 by cintinative

[kbutton]

Just now, cintinative said:

You have to look it up by county still I think?  I am in Warren. Butler county is a tad higher, and Montgomery is a tad higher than that. 

Oh, I forgot. I was thinking you were further south. Duh. Yeah, I think your stat and mine are just off by a matter of a day or something. It is the Warren/Butler combo and shared hospitals that I am referring to. We basically live on the county line. 

The .pdf has all the counties in one document. I haven't seen it before or had it turn up in searches before now.