sassenach Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 23 hours ago, PeterPan said: I don't keep a running list of your posts/opinions, lol. What's wild to me is that people in CA seem so FAVORABLE of his approach. I read these Disney blogs, etc. and they just seem to totally drink the koolaid. I had a trip planned to there for next year that is getting killed by his insanity. Total bummer, as it would have been great. Depends on who you ask and which county you're in. Most people around here are fine with mask mandates but pretty fed up with seeing business shuttered. Even his supporters are pretty tired of how he keeps moving the goal posts. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sassenach Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 12 hours ago, Frances said: Not in WI where my mom lives. Many hospitals there are at capacity. In my state deaths are still pretty steady, really no decrease, so it doesn’t seem less severe in that sense. I do think they have made progress on treatments, but lots of people are still dying every day in the US. I know one of the doctors on these boards actually treating patients didn’t agree recently with the idea that illnesses were less severe now. My armchair theory is that when people say the severity is getting worse, what they're really seeing is increased spread is leading to a higher number of severe cases. I don't think what's happening in Wisconsin is a more virulent virus than what they had before (or than what NY and CA had) it's just that the numbers are reaching critical mass for the first time. This pattern seems to be the same- it's just all about the timing of when the virus seeds in the area and finally hits that threshold where community spread picks up speed (exponential). That's when the virus is perceived as worse than before but really it's just the sample size is allowing for more severe cases, more outliers, and overrun hospitals (which is also a factor in more deaths). 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pam in CT Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 what does "worse" mean 1 hour ago, sassenach said: My armchair theory is that when people say the severity is getting worse, what they're really seeing is increased spread is leading to a higher number of severe cases. I don't think what's happening in Wisconsin is a more virulent virus than what they had before (or than what NY and CA had) it's just that the numbers are reaching critical mass for the first time. This pattern seems to be the same- it's just all about the timing of when the virus seeds in the area and finally hits that threshold where community spread picks up speed (exponential). That's when the virus is perceived as worse than before but really it's just the sample size is allowing for more severe cases, more outliers, and overrun hospitals (which is also a factor in more deaths). Yeah, this is essentially what I was trying to get at in the beginning of the thread about where the hot spots are in geography and in time. It's hard to feel it fully when it's other areas that are being hit -- to some people the risk feels remote and the magnitude maybe exaggerated; to others it feels like an outright "hoax." It feels "worse" when it's hitting close to home. My own area was among the hard-hit in the early weeks, and at the time it was pretty disheartening, how dismissive other regions of the country were. These days my area is (compared to then) much "better"... but we definitely remember what "worse" looks like. Perhaps the silver lining is, once every pocket in the country lives with "worse" for a while, we'll manage to move the mark a bit on consensus around comparatively easy/ low-cost measures like masking and distancing. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sassenach Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, Pam in CT said: what does "worse" mean Yeah, this is essentially what I was trying to get at in the beginning of the thread about where the hot spots are in geography and in time. It's hard to feel it fully when it's other areas that are being hit -- to some people the risk feels remote and the magnitude maybe exaggerated; to others it feels like an outright "hoax." It feels "worse" when it's hitting close to home. My own area was among the hard-hit in the early weeks, and at the time it was pretty disheartening, how dismissive other regions of the country were. These days my area is (compared to then) much "better"... but we definitely remember what "worse" looks like. Perhaps the silver lining is, once every pocket in the country lives with "worse" for a while, we'll manage to move the mark a bit on consensus around comparatively easy/ low-cost measures like masking and distancing. Yes totally. And I was even specifically speaking to doctors seeing worse cases. I bet they are. If you have 5 people in your ICU, you’ll have 1 on a vent, a few on heavy support, and maybe one with DM who is there as a precaution. If you have 20 ICU patients, you’ll have 5 on vents (using my ratio), 15 with heavy support that you’re trying to keep off vents and those “precaution” patients won’t be sent to ICU. It’s going to feel like the virus is worse but it’s the total numbers that are worse. I do feel for those areas that got it later. Even now I have sympathy for them but I mostly care about what’s happening in my area. I would be pissed if they put us on more severe restrictions because Wisconsin is having a surge. I do think that when areas got locked down while they had no cases, it contributed to the overall fatigue and angst. 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frogger Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 26 minutes ago, sassenach said: Yes totally. And I was even specifically speaking to doctors seeing worse cases. I bet they are. If you have 5 people in your ICU, you’ll have 1 on a vent, a few on heavy support, and maybe one with DM who is there as a precaution. If you have 20 ICU patients, you’ll have 5 on vents (using my ratio), 15 with heavy support that you’re trying to keep off vents and those “precaution” patients won’t be sent to ICU. It’s going to feel like the virus is worse but it’s the total numbers that are worse. I do feel for those areas that got it later. Even now I have sympathy for them but I mostly care about what’s happening in my area. I would be pissed if they put us on more severe restrictions because Wisconsin is having a surge. I do think that when areas got locked down while they had no cases, it contributed to the overall fatigue and angst. I do agree that individual locations should do what is best for them but I do think most people underestimate the lack of the Global supply of PPE that contributed to earlier restrictions. Not that I'm in every governor's and chief medical officer's head but locally we opened very quickly. The health care sector was opened but those things that took the most PPE stayed closed until another shipment of PPE came in. Just because locally our hospitals were empty doesn't mean we weren't hurting for PPE because we were competing globally for supplies. Now of course, we are competeing for nurses. That won't be fixed so quickly or easily. 7 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bambam Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 I've found the COVID Act Now site to be helpful. If you look at each specific county, it shows you a variety of statistics - including positive test rate - which is much more meaningful to me on a county level vs. the entire state. I just chose El Paso because their numbers are super high right now. https://covidactnow.org/us/texas-tx/county/el_paso_county?s=1173285 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matryoshka Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 I like this interactive map put out by the Brown U's School of Public Health - updates I think daily with moving 7 day averages of cases per 100K (so, apples to apples), for the US down to the county level, and you can switch the view to worldwide if you want to know what's going on elsewhere. There's also a tab to see a graph over time for each location. https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/ 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCB Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 2 hours ago, Bambam said: I've found the COVID Act Now site to be helpful. If you look at each specific county, it shows you a variety of statistics - including positive test rate - which is much more meaningful to me on a county level vs. the entire state. I just chose El Paso because their numbers are super high right now. https://covidactnow.org/us/texas-tx/county/el_paso_county?s=1173285 Interesting site. When I checked my county the ICU capacity information was not correct though, so not sure what sort of a lag there is. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frogger Posted October 20, 2020 Share Posted October 20, 2020 2 minutes ago, TCB said: Interesting site. When I checked my county the ICU capacity information was not correct though, so not sure what sort of a lag there is. From what I can see they were counting beds in our state. Not that beds are much use without staff. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCB Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 5 hours ago, frogger said: From what I can see they were counting beds in our state. Not that beds are much use without staff. I just walked through the only ICU in my county this morning and even counting beds it was incorrect, and the beds occupied have been very much the same for some days. The inaccuracy probably comes from our health department though. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TCB Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 @kand we have a pretty good supply of PPE now, or at least way better than March. We do have to wear the same mask for a number of days though, maybe 5, but I’m pretty sure that is a cost cutting measure and they aren’t keeping them locked up all the time like they were. I am still using the same positive air pressure hood that I was given in March, and it’s supposed to be used for 3 days and then thrown away. I think we’ve discovered some pretty interesting things about disposables during this time. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frances Posted October 21, 2020 Share Posted October 21, 2020 10 hours ago, frogger said: I do agree that individual locations should do what is best for them but I do think most people underestimate the lack of the Global supply of PPE that contributed to earlier restrictions. Not that I'm in every governor's and chief medical officer's head but locally we opened very quickly. The health care sector was opened but those things that took the most PPE stayed closed until another shipment of PPE came in. Just because locally our hospitals were empty doesn't mean we weren't hurting for PPE because we were competing globally for supplies. Now of course, we are competeing for nurses. That won't be fixed so quickly or easily. The shortage of nurses is so frustrating to me because we have so many qualified people in this country who want to be nurses, but we don’t have nearly enough training slots for them. Two of my son’s friends had to go out of state and pay for both out of state tuition and living expenses because they couldn’t get one of the very limited training slots here. One is already a nurse practitioner after acing her post bac BSN program. My niece in another state has been on a waiting list for several years for an RN program. The same training slot shortages exist for most other healthcare professions here, including doctors. Pharmacists are a rare exception because universities figured out PharmD programs were a money maker for them. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frances Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 It looks like some hospitals are at capacity in Idaho and they might start sending patients to OR and WA. https://www.oregonlive.com/coronavirus/2020/10/idaho-hospitals-near-capacity-may-send-new-coronavirus-patients-to-portland-seattle.html Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EmilyGF Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Two separate friends canceled on me this week for (outdoor, distanced) activities because people they had spent time with this weekend tested positive for COVID on Sunday. This is the first time anyone has canceled on me due to a contact getting COVID. It is worse, at least in my social circles (these are two separate social circles). Emily 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Not_a_Number Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 On 10/20/2020 at 3:26 PM, Matryoshka said: I like this interactive map put out by the Brown U's School of Public Health - updates I think daily with moving 7 day averages of cases per 100K (so, apples to apples), for the US down to the county level, and you can switch the view to worldwide if you want to know what's going on elsewhere. There's also a tab to see a graph over time for each location. https://globalepidemics.org/key-metrics-for-covid-suppression/ That's by cases, though. I don't think that's nearly as good as positivity. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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