(CV19 hypothetical) If you had a crystal ball that revealed

[regentrude]

1 minute ago, Not_a_Number said:

Yeah, I haven't caught up with friends that much 😕. But I'm an introvert in general. DH is keeping up with his friends. 

I am an extreme extrovert and used to being surrounded by people for a large part of the day. I am a people person who needs live interaction to thrive. The spring was a nightmare. At least now I get to go in for an hour each day and teach a live class, even though everything else is online. It makes a big difference but is not nearly enough.
 

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, regentrude said:

I am an extreme extrovert and used to being surrounded by people for a large part of the day. I am a people person who needs live interaction to thrive. The spring was a nightmare. At least now I get to go in for an hour each day and teach a live class, even though everything else is online. It makes a big difference but is not nearly enough.
 

Yeah, it's really not optimal 😕 

[BeachGal]

Hypothetically speaking, my family and I would just continue doing ozone treatments, which is what we've been doing since February, and then go about our daily lives.

Edited October 19, 2020 by BeachGal
pesky commas

[athena1277]

My kids are in 12th, 8th, and preK.  There’s no way we can go through 5 more years of things as they are now.  Oldest is excited to go to college next year.  There’s no way she would survive the isolation that some schools have instituted.  She had bad cabin fever when the lockdown started.  She got a job a few months ago, which has helped her a lot, but she’s only going to be working in the summer during college.  She also really wants to “go away” to college, which is not possible at many schools right now.

Besides the teens in or about to be in college, would you want a teen to have all of high school with little to no face to face socializing for all of high school?  We just thought the teen years were hard before this.  No way do I want this for my 8th grader.

Something needs to change soon.  A good vaccine, herd immunity, something.  

[sassenach]

My personal behavior would stay close to what it is but my desire for my state would be to open up. We've been floating on fake money and it's drying up. I would want our economy and schools to open. Five years is too long to do this. We would have a generation of seriously under-educated kids.

I'm in CA. We're still living with pretty heavy restrictions. Tons, TONS of businesses are closing. The economic consequences are just starting to be unveiled. It's going to be bad. The academic/mental health consequences are already becoming quite evident. If we did this for 5 years, I don't even know what we'd have left.

[AmandaVT]

Things feel not far off from normal where I live, so we could do 5 more years of this without too much struggle. I'm back teaching in person, DH does a mix of online and in person therapy with clients. DS is homeschooling with a mix of online classes and homeschool stuff. He plays tennis in person, sees his piano teacher on Facetime and plays video games on facetime w/ friends. He has a couple of friends he sees in person. DH and I have a mix of friends we see in person or play video games with (DH) or chat on the phone with (me).

I do miss eating in restaurants, but I was able to do that a couple of times outside this summer. At this point, I'd feel comfortable visiting my family that's 4 hrs away. The county they live in is considered a safe county for Vermont people to visit right now. 

[Amy Gen]

My kids are completely over Zoom. They don’t use it for school and still don’t want to use it for socializing. Dd 14 FaceTimes friends while they do something else like work out or clean their rooms. Dd 22 is far from most of her friends but she has a few weekly phone calls scheduled. 
 

 

[Pen]

I had no idea this would get so many replies!

I will have to catch up my reading!

 

[Not_a_Number]

58 minutes ago, Carol in Cal. said:

Bottom line—we can’t stay shut down, and we can’t open up safely.

Yeah, that's the feeling I'm getting from this thread, and it's depressing the heck out of me. I hope that's not true. 

[TravelingChris]

2 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

Well if you are going that way...then doesn't, exposure to the public add up in terms of covid?  Doesn't than mean my lowered exposure to the public mean that I have a lower probability of catching covid?

Of course, you have a lower probability of catching COVID the less you are in groups or the less random people you see.  

[Ausmumof3]

Nyt ran an article today saying it might much closer to normal by next spring.  I kind of hope they’re right.  For me personally it wouldn’t make a lot of difference right now.  I think Aus will slowly soften border closures between states and we definitely can’t keep them closed for five years.  I’m not sure how viable the economy would be with a firm international border for that long.  I suspect what would happen is what’s already happening, slowly cautiously reopening with countries that have fairly successful public health measures in place and are keeping up with contact tracing.  For everywhere else entry would be via quarantine only.  If there’s never a vaccine it’s kind of all pointless though.  

[TravelingChris]

5 minutes ago, Medicmom2.0 said:

I’m pessimistic about all of it.  I don’t think a vaccine will be a cure; a help, like the flu vaccine, but it’s not going to eradicate it.  We know very little about lasting immunity, and the coronaviruses we are familiar with have only about 9 months of immunity.  We don’t really know about reinfections because we don’t have a good grasp on who was infected in the first place. 
Over time we’ll discover more and learn more.  But eventually, we’ll have to make peace and live with it, like a year round bad flu season.

I firmly believe there’s some transmission routes we don’t know about.  I transported a coworker from small hospital to big hospital today. He’s Covid positive and really sick.  Nobody around him is sick and every time he had a Covid positive patient he wore an N95, safety goggles, gloves and gown.  And still he somehow got enough viral load to make him very ill with no underlying factors.

In five years, I think it just won’t be new anymore and will be a part of human existence.

N95 means you lower the risk by 95%,  it doesn't mean 100% effective.  Some asymptomatic people were even found to be super spreaders - and that is a big of course because if you are really sick, you aren't running around to funerals, weddings, giant soccer games, etc.

[TravelingChris]

3 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Nyt ran an article today saying it might much closer to normal by next spring.  I kind of hope they’re right.  For me personally it wouldn’t make a lot of difference right now.  I think Aus will slowly soften border closures between states and we definitely can’t keep them closed for five years.  I’m not sure how viable the economy would be with a firm international border for that long.  I suspect what would happen is what’s already happening, slowly cautiously reopening with countries that have fairly successful public health measures in place and are keeping up with contact tracing.  For everywhere else entry would be via quarantine only.  If there’s never a vaccine it’s kind of all pointless though.  

Hawaii and a number of islands have the following precautions for not getting COVID spreaders that doesn't involve quarantine- negative test within 72 hours before arrival.   I am considering if we want to go to one of the islands this winter.

[Ausmumof3]

1 minute ago, TravelingChris said:

Hawaii and a number of islands have the following precautions for not getting COVID spreaders that doesn't involve quarantine- negative test within 72 hours before arrival.   I am considering if we want to go to one of the islands this winter.

Something like that may work as well as if they can get reliable sniffer dogs to detect it 

[TravelingChris]

Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

Something like that may work as well as if they can get reliable sniffer dogs to detect it 

Yes, that would be good too

[Not_a_Number]

21 minutes ago, Medicmom2.0 said:

I firmly believe there’s some transmission routes we don’t know about.  I transported a coworker from small hospital to big hospital today. He’s Covid positive and really sick.  Nobody around him is sick and every time he had a Covid positive patient he wore an N95, safety goggles, gloves and gown.  And still he somehow got enough viral load to make him very ill with no underlying factors.

I'm really sorry he's sick :-(. 

If he's had COVID-positive patients, though, it's not exactly mysterious how he got sick. 

[Not_a_Number]

2 hours ago, prairiewindmomma said:

As it is, I have several friends our age who are long haulers—-40s, marathon runners, no health issues—being young and healthy is no guarantee.

That's the thing. Life right now feels like life in a war, or in other incredibly suboptimal conditions... a lot of usual considerations go out the window, because it feels like one's job is to keep one's health and sanity and one's family's health and sanity and... that's about it. Lots of things you might normally want seem less important to me right now. 

But then my grandparents had to be evacuated as kids during World World 2. A lot of them lost their fathers. That was worse than our current situation... but it was certainly better than not being evacuated and maybe being killed. 

The fact is, lots of generations bear scars. That doesn't make it OK, and it's certainly formative, but who exactly promised us that life was going to be easy? 

Edited October 19, 2020 by Not_a_Number

[mommyoffive]

I think we would open our lives up more.  Do socially distant get togethers and trips.  My kids already went to an online public school.   Their social time came from dance.  People are over talking on zoom here.  People were living their lives like normal the whole time.    Oh and we would go to medical appointments we have skipped.  I think we would move to a house with a lot more land. 

The thought makes me want to cry.

Edited October 19, 2020 by mommyoffive

[Not_a_Number]

2 minutes ago, mommyoffive said:

The thought makes me want to cry.

I know, right? 

[Farrar]

I'm definitely at the point where if I want to see people, I just see them. Outside. At a 10'+ distance on the patio (I actually reconfigured part of the back porch for this so that it opens visually to the patio) or for a walk with masks. I have some things still on Zoom, like book club and yoga group and writing group and so forth. I went to see my mother, though I isolated and got tested. My kids had a backyard party for their birthday and everyone wore masks pretty much the whole time. They dragged pillows out and set up a projector. They're doing something similar for Halloween with friends.

All of that helps a lot and shapes my answer. Like, I feel like I've already made my modifications. 

We'll see what winter brings though. And I suspect balletboy will be back to the studio in January and... that's just going to be how it is.

[edelweiss]

I could do this for a lot longer, I think.  I wouldn't want my kids to have to do it though.  My 17 year old is a senior and this year is brutal for her.  No social interaction, high anxiety and depression, etc.  Something has to change for her.  I think she will likely start out at the same college her sister goes to.  DD20 isn't living on campus this year, but she plans to next year.  If things are the same in the fall as they are now, I hope that they both will be able to live on campus.  If that isn't possible, I will likely rent an apartment for the two of them near campus.  Then, they can hopefully have limited experiences at college while not exposing DH and me.

[cjzimmer1]

Me personally,  I could live like this for the rest of my life.  I am thrilled to have all these social situations that I felt obligated to attend cancelled.  This summer as I was out tending my garden, I realized this was the first summer in forever that I got to ENJOY summer.  Normally we are running around to all kinds of events or planning for said events.  With everything cancelled, I got to stay home, and work in my garden and I realized I was really and truly happier than I have been in so very long.  Being around people especially in groups, it's not something I particularly enjoy so yeah this has been great for MY emotional health.  

Now the rest of my family not so much, even the other introverts here are wishing for a bit more interaction and I've sadly realized that whenever things start to open more it's going to come down sacrificing my mental well being from staying home for their mental wellbeing to go out.  

As far as if this should last 5 years, I don't think I would change anything now.  DH's company didn't allow working from home pre COVID.  Obviously they didn't have a choice.  A couple of months in they surveyed they employees and 86% wanted to continue working from home permanently.  So the plan is some point in the future when it's safe, to open the building (right now fall of 2021 is the soonest they are considering), of having shared work spaces so that those who wish to come back back full time may but those who just want to come in occassionally can do that to.  DS1 works out of the home but they've sent everyone home who can so there is not many people in the building and there is no interaction with the public.  DS2 started a job last month.  His job has the most exposure but he is doing well with the job and we just accept the risk it brings.  Within 5 years, I could have 1 or 2 finished with high school.  One I expect will go to college and one will look for a job right away but since college for our kids means starting at the local CC and then transferring to the local state U if the degree warrants it, I don't really see any changes for that front either.  

So I'm sure I'm in the very small minority but this pandemic has brought far more good changes to my life than bad. 

[Katy]

We've basically been on total lock down.  We go for grocery pickup.  We've done curbside pickup at a handful of other stores.  We've gotten takeout.  We take various kids (especially the little ones) for drives because sometimes you just have to get out of the house and the weather is too bad (stormy, windy, foggy in an area with no sidewalks) to go outside for long. Otherwise we stay home.

If it turns out that we don't have a safe and effective vaccine approved by the end of next year I suspect we'll sell our current home and move to a small acreage and start a hobby farm.  Mostly to get kids outside for some work and play in a safer way than we can here.

And other than encouraging online college programs and online jobs, I don't really see anything much changing.  If adults want to leave home and have the ability to do so financially we aren't going to stop them, but that ability doesn't diminish the risks family members who are high risk.

[J-rap]

My mind cannot even fathom how to answer that, because I believe that scenario is next to impossible.  (I could be wrong, of course!)  But for me, it's the same as asking:  "If you were to permanently move to the moon in five years, what would you pack?"  

I really do believe things will have changed a lot in five years!  I'm hopeful they will be very different even in one year.

 

[Bootsie]

DS is a college senior.  It means that he missed two international programs (one during last spring break and one summer program) and an internship.  While the travel would have been nice, what really hurts is not being able to build relationships with professors in the same way he would have been able to.  The company he worked for closed in the spring.  He has gone to work for another company, but it is hanging on by a thread and may not be in business much longer.   For his age group, about 1/3 of their college experience will be a pandemic experience. He is greatly concerned about job prospects upon graduation.  He has started dating a young woman, and I wonder how that would have progressed differently if it were not in the middle of a pandemic.

DD is in graduate school in Europe--she had just had one class when everything shut down.  So, she is trying to figure out how to get to know professors and write a thesis when she has never had an in-person class.  It is definitely not the graduate school experience that she was expecting.  She was supposed to be in a friend's wedding this summer but could not go to the wedding.  Another friend is getting married over the holidays, but she does not think she will travel to be in that wedding either.  And two friends next summer...and those plans are now on hold.  We would not hesitate to have her fly back to the US at any point if that is what she wanted to do.

DH had just retired and his plans of what do in retirement have all vanished.  I hear him beginning to say more and more about becoming concerned that if he doesn't do things because he is concerned he will contract COVID, he will maybe never get to do them.  My mom lives about 5 hours away;  I am beginning to wonder how much longer I will go without seeing her; that will probably mean driving seeing her outdoors for a brief time and driving back.  I have a sibling who will be very upset if I do that.  

DH and I recently moved here.  On one hand we hadn't made friends locally, so we aren't missing seeing them.  But, we haven't been able to establish friendships here either because of the pandemic.  DH has probably been more places than I have--he had an eye doctor's appt, a dentist appt, has gotten his hair cut, and some other things like that.  Because DS has one in-person classes, has a job, and does have some social life with his girlfriend, he is our biggest exposure at this point.  He isn't going to large parties or bars and we feel it is important to let him continue to engage in the lower risk activities that he is doing.  

As we look at our comfort level with more long-range planning, especially in the absence of an effective vaccine, we are watching hospitilization and fatality rates.  

[Shoeless]

Like @J-rap, I don't exactly know how to answer that question. I don't think it will take 5 years. I think we'll get a "good enough" vaccine within 6 months and a really great vaccine by 5 years time. 

If, theoretically, nothing really changed for 5 years, we'd move closer to my family (that's happening regardless), and look into converting a van into a small RV, so we could do some travel around the US. 

[Not_a_Number]

3 minutes ago, MissLemon said:

Like @J-rap, I don't exactly know how to answer that question. I don't think it will take 5 years. I think we'll get a "good enough" vaccine within 6 months and a really great vaccine by 5 years time. 

If, theoretically, nothing really changed for 5 years, we'd move closer to my family (that's happening regardless), and look into converting a van into a small RV, so we could do some travel around the US. 

Yeah, I also don't think this is happening. It's really depressing to think about, though.... 

[Not_a_Number]

2 minutes ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

My mother tells me that there was a recent article in the Wall Street Journal that projects that we will be dealing with COVID through 2024. The author said the acute effects of COVID will last through 2022 followed by the political and economic fallout through 2024. The article is behind the paywall so I can't read it. What a depressing thought.  

Did anyone here read it? 

Ugh. I haven’t read it, but yes, very depressing.

[Twolittleboys]

7 hours ago, Spy Car said:

"It is what it is?"  

Bill

Well, yes, my feelings are what they are. I AM getting tired of this. That doesn't necessarily mean I will act differently. I am a big rule follower (and I live in Europe and rules are fairly strict here). I am wearing a mask whenever I am out and near people. I work from home. The only time I am out of the house is usually to go to the grocery store. But if I said that I am not getting tired of this, that I am not longing to travel again I would be lying. Not sure what is so horrible about that?

And if I was sure that it was a full 5 years until this pandemic is over my opinions would change (it is of course hypothetical as is this entire thread). I was all for isolating nursing homes in the spring to save lives. But there are costs associated with that and they are not to be discounted either. But five years? Five years of not seeing family? 

I guess for my personally the only real difference would be vacations. For now, I am not going on any but I think I might by next spring/summer. I will of course consider local infection risks and I can probably quarantine when I get back. But for me personally by next year a slightly increased risk is probably worth it by then.

 

[easypeasy]

I can’t even think of a coherent answer because *reading* the words “five years until...” caused me to literally cease breathing. 
 

Pausing to breathe in and out a few times... I’d have to personally loosen up. My kids are young adults and this is (for OUR family) the very worst possible time for this to happen. Earlier, we could have happily holed up and had all sorts of great conversations and fun together without feeling a permanent sense of loss of opportunities. 
 

But now? They are ready to spread their wings and fly. I hate this feeling that their wings are clipped before they even really get started. 😕 There’s no way I could foresee even the most cooperative people continuing this level of separation for five whole years. 
 

eta: I don’t need a vaccine, per se - but a reliable treatment would be nice. And it seems, in our personal experiences recently, that seems to be happening.

Edited October 19, 2020 by easypeasy

[Not_a_Number]

2 hours ago, easypeasy said:

And it seems, in our personal experiences recently, that seems to be happening.

What personal experiences, if you don’t mind me asking?

Edited October 19, 2020 by Not_a_Number

[TCB]

2 hours ago, easypeasy said: 

 

eta: I don’t need a vaccine, per se - but a reliable treatment would be nice. And it seems, in our personal experiences recently, that seems to be happening.

Please can you share the reliable treatment you’re talking about.

[Carrie12345]

12 hours ago, DorothyNJ said:

If the mask mandates end before I'm comfortable with it, things will likely change for us.  I'm comfortable with our current activities because masks are required.  I would not be at all comfortable if we were someplace with a ton of community spread and no mandates.

Yeah, a lot of my decisions are based on what precautions others are taking, and I don’t see that changing with a crystal ball.

The amount of risk we’re taking in our household is close to all I can imagine taking.  It isn’t a WHOLE lot, but it’s some. And I try to offset that by limiting how much risk to others leaves my household.

If I had to make choices today for 5 years, I think I’d beg dh to delay trying to buy his company and just get a bigger house.  Probably beg my young adult to come home, or at least beg him and convince myself to accept visits. Set a basement up to get everyone to burn a lot more energy.
And finally buy a travel trailer. It’s been on our wish list for a long time, but I think we need to get out as much and as safely as possible. (We’re currently tent campers, and I don’t want to be sharing bathrooms.) Then we could at least have outdoor, masked, socially distant visits with the rest of my family. They’re in a much milder climate than we are.

School-wise, I’d have one child graduating in 5 years, and no idea what I should be expecting at that point as far as college or career.  I don’t know what coming out of a pandemic in today’s society looks like.  My daughters will have job security. My oldest might still be dabbling in college then, lol.

Oh, if my signature isn’t visible, my kids are 22, 18, 17, 13, and almost 10.

I’d also get even louder about pushing for gov’t to help people to survive this.  WIth a crystal ball, there’d be no more pretending that everyone might be fine in the next few months, so let’s not rush to help. @@   

 

[Wheres Toto]

10 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

And finally buy a travel trailer. It’s been on our wish list for a long time, but I think we need to get out as much and as safely as possible. (We’re currently tent campers, and I don’t want to be sharing bathrooms.) Then we could at least have outdoor, masked, socially distant visits with the rest of my family. They’re in a much milder climate than we are.

 

We tent camp and we have one of those bucket toilets in one of the tents.   We put cat litter and a bag in it to control smells but we did that to avoid walking to the bathrooms in the middle of the night.   If we went camping during Covid, we'd just use it all the time instead of just at night.  

[J-rap]

8 hours ago, Ordinary Shoes said:

My mother tells me that there was a recent article in the Wall Street Journal that projects that we will be dealing with COVID through 2024. The author said the acute effects of COVID will last through 2022 followed by the political and economic fallout through 2024. The article is behind the paywall so I can't read it. What a depressing thought.  

Did anyone here read it? 

I haven't read it, but I sadly agree that the economic and political and even societal fallout will probably continue for quite awhile.  Although, I'm still hopeful (fingers crossed!) that between a vaccine and more people having had Covid, we'll be in a far better place (as far as that aspect goes) a year from now.

[catz]

Well, if that were true, I still think other things would change.  We'd continue improve with testing and tracing.  We will have better safety equipment available.  Businesses will be working on their ventilation systems.  I do think case management is at least in hospitals with experience has improved and will continue to do so.  We will learn more about transmission and risk.  It will go through enough of the populations that numbers will naturally cycle down.  There are theories that for many who have develop and maintain t-cell immunity that this will end up more like a coronavirus common cold, and we'll learn more about that too.  So I expect we'd continue to react to what is going on to our community right now.  I suspect the next 6-12 months that will look like more of the same for us but then we will see. 

That said, first vax is applying for emergency use next month and adding kids down to age 12 in their trials, so it's hard to imagine they don't have good safety data and decent efficacy data on that one already.   That said, I don't think it's an  unreasonable to estimate that we will be dealing with the fallout for years to come.  

Edited October 19, 2020 by FuzzyCatz

[SKL]

If I knew this virus was going to be raging for 5 years, I would go volunteer in a Covid ward and catch it as fast as I could, go home and quarantine with my kids, and be done with it.

Sometimes I wonder why I didn't think of that over the summer.

Our lives are still limited as far as what the governor / school superintendent allows, but at least I could see my parents.

[SKL]

Oh and my business would probably be bankrupt, so I'm not sure what that would mean to our daily lives.  I have some savings, but that was supposed to be for my kids' college education.

[Carrie12345]

So, I just watched an interview with a guy working on the Moderna vaccine.  It definitely did not excite me!

Estimating a 40% efficacy rate (he actually gave a wide range on that), a need for 80-90% vaccination rate, requiring expensive freezers for the unusual storage temperature, and requiring two shots...
5 years doesn’t feel out of the realm of possibility.

[Pam in CT]

24 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

So, I just watched an interview with a guy working on the Moderna vaccine.  It definitely did not excite me!

Estimating a 40% efficacy rate (he actually gave a wide range on that), a need for 80-90% vaccination rate, requiring expensive freezers for the unusual storage temperature, and requiring two shots...
5 years doesn’t feel out of the realm of possibility.

Yeah, the logistical challenges of some of the efforts underway (extremely cold temperatures throughout the supply chain, vaccine must get from manufacturer all the way into arm within 2 days) are really daunting, and unlike any other vaccine that has ever been deployed at scale. Several of these will NOT be available, ever, at CVS or your local doctor.

 

[Bootsie]

On 10/18/2020 at 11:43 PM, Ordinary Shoes said:

My mother tells me that there was a recent article in the Wall Street Journal that projects that we will be dealing with COVID through 2024. The author said the acute effects of COVID will last through 2022 followed by the political and economic fallout through 2024. The article is behind the paywall so I can't read it. What a depressing thought.  

Did anyone here read it? 

I don't know which specific article you are referring to, but from what most economists are discussing, the economic fallout will extend beyond 2024, especially when you consider the level of government debt and increase in the money supply that has occurred in the past six months.  

[BeachGal]

1 hour ago, Carrie12345 said:

So, I just watched an interview with a guy working on the Moderna vaccine.  It definitely did not excite me!

Estimating a 40% efficacy rate (he actually gave a wide range on that), a need for 80-90% vaccination rate, requiring expensive freezers for the unusual storage temperature, and requiring two shots...
5 years doesn’t feel out of the realm of possibility.

Could you link the video?

Slaoui, the head of Operation Warp Speed, recently mentioned that one of the vaccines has an 80-90% efficacy rate. They were thinking it was more along 50%. That could be the Pfizer vaccine.

A lot of people will not get the vaccine here in the US because we are not doing a good job addressing their concerns. There will always be anti-vaxers but communication could be much better. Another review came out a few days ago that discussed the big concerns of ADE and VAED, and they are not appearing. They likely would have seen those problems in Phases 1 and 2.

https://stm.sciencemag.org/content/early/2020/10/16/scitranslmed.abe0948

Quote

We conclude that the available data do not support more concern about VAED for COVID-19 vaccines than is appropriate for the development of any viral vaccine. Convalescent plasma studies suggest potential benefit rather than a risk of more severe disease. In addition, no serious safety signals have been reported from initial phase 1 trials of COVID-19 vaccine candidates, with the caveat that the number of vaccinees who have been subsequently exposed to SARS-CoV-2 infection is unknown but probably low. Nevertheless, an abundance of caution to exclude such a concern is warranted in order to be able to implement efficacious COVID-19 vaccines as widely, rapidly and safely as possible.

I will try to dig for the specifics put out by the companies but the refrigeration has been worked out and is not going to be a problem in developed countries. In undeveloped countries, they have created special thermal shipping containers that will be kept cold with dry ice. The containers will be monitored remotely and through GPS. They are even reformulating the vaccine so it can avoid low temps altogether. (A fairly new technology.)

The problem could be having enough vaccine doses and supplies to meet demand.

[Carrie12345]

20 minutes ago, BeachGal said:

Could you link the video?

Google isn’t bringing one up for me. I was watching live on CNN earlier today.

[BeachGal]

I don’t trust mainstream news outlets to accurately inform the public. I’d be surprised if someone from Moderna is making statements already but who knows. Could be true. I’m going to ask on the science forums where I mostly lurk.

Slaoui did say a few days ago they are seeing 80-90% efficacy for one of the vaccines. That might be Pfizer.

[catz]

8 minutes ago, BeachGal said:

I don’t trust mainstream news outlets to accurately inform the public. I’d be surprised if someone from Moderna is making statements already but who knows. Could be true. I’m going to ask on the science forums where I mostly lurk.

Slaoui did say a few days ago they are seeing 80-90% efficacy for one of the vaccines. That might be Pfizer.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/trumps-vaccine-czar-says-the-first-vaccine-should-be-submitted-for-emergency-authorization-around-thanksgiving-2020-10-08

 

This is his quote 

 

Slaoui: The FDA guidance of about 50% is really about how to power the clinical trial. It’s not about what the expectation from the vaccines is. We don’t want to miss a vaccine that has 50% efficacy, if that was to be the reality. Because 50% efficacy in the setting of a pandemic may mean 500 deaths prevented every day — that’s quite relevant. But my expectation is really something between 80% and 90% efficacy. I would be very negatively surprised if it was closer to 50%. Everything we see, including the recent data by Lilly LLY, +0.32% and Regeneron REGN, -0.87%, with monoclonal antibody transfer, suggested robust efficacy can be achieved. [Editor’s note: Lilly and Regeneron both submitted their experimental antibody treatments to the FDA for authorization this week.]

Edited October 20, 2020 by FuzzyCatz

[Carrie12345]

16 minutes ago, BeachGal said:

I don’t trust mainstream news outlets to accurately inform the public. I’d be surprised if someone from Moderna is making statements already but who knows. Could be true. I’m going to ask on the science forums where I mostly lurk.

Slaoui did say a few days ago they are seeing 80-90% efficacy for one of the vaccines. That might be Pfizer.

Well, I watched his mouth move and listened to the words that came out of it, in their entirety. Who he is as a person, Idunno, but I have no good reason to suspect they dubbed his voice.

[BeachGal]

Moderna isn’t supposed to have efficacy data until next month from what I’ve read. What you said could have been said in a certain context and that’s why having the actual video or, preferably, company statement is better.

[BeachGal]

Just heard back from someone who knows about Moderna. He said they have not made any official statement. Their efficacy readout will come out next month. If it’s only 40%, then they are out as a vaccine candidate. It needs to be a minimum of 50% to apply for approval. I’m not trying to rag on you, Carrie, but I’d be very surprised if Moderna made any sort of claim yet. It could be they were discussing what rates they need to have or something along those lines.

[Carrie12345]

50 minutes ago, BeachGal said:

Moderna isn’t supposed to have efficacy data until next month from what I’ve read. What you said could have been said in a certain context and that’s why having the actual video or, preferably, company statement is better.

Could be! I can’t help that I watched it on TV though, lol.

[BeachGal]

Well, I can’t comment because I don’t know what you saw! LOL

Anyway, here’s a short article that explains what efficacy the FDA wants to see in vaccine candidates:

https://www.fiercepharma.com/vaccines/fda-to-require-at-least-50-efficacy-for-covid-19-vaccines-wsj