The predictive value of COVID positivity

[Not_a_Number]

6 hours ago, vonfirmath said:

I wouldn't have expected more than a 1 day dip in the numbers for Thanksgiving. My husband's team had half of them come in to work Friday in making sure tests were processed and half came in Saturday -- to make sure the test data was processed in a timely basis. They will have to do the same thing at Christmas (And are already working more Sunday hours than they ever had to before)

I mean -- people aren't going to not die just because it is Thanksgiving. It's just recording the death that might be late.

Yeah, exactly. If I look at the July 4th and Labor Day data, they were all completed in a day or two. So while it's POSSIBLE we're still going to fill in more data, I'd guess we're done with the Thanksgiving dip and the current number is about right. 

But we'll see in a few days. I'm not being all that optimistic by saying deaths won't hit 3000 on average, lol... I still think they'll go up past 2000 and perhaps keep going up, depending on how the numbers look. Either way, I think they'll be unacceptably high for all of December. 

[The Governess]

How are the projections holding up? I saw that the 7-day average number of deaths is now up to 2,222 according to worldometers. 😞 I think the highest ever was 2,259 back in April, which will probably be topped tomorrow. I just don’t have a good feeling about this, especially since these deaths aren’t even connected to the post-Thanksgiving spike in cases.

 

[Corraleno]

Well I really hope today's numbers include some backlog from Thanksgiving, because they are much higher than would be expected for a Saturday. Looking at the data from the previous four Saturdays, the numbers were around 1000 / 1250 / 1500 / 1200 and then today was 2250. (And that's from just 41 states, because 9 did not report deaths today.) If the backlog was totally cleared by Tuesday or Wednesday, and those numbers accurately represent current circumstances, that's a huge jump in deaths for a Saturday. ☹️

 

[Not_a_Number]

45 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Well I really hope today's numbers include some backlog from Thanksgiving, because they are much higher than would be expected for a Saturday. Looking at the data from the previous four Saturdays, the numbers were around 1000 / 1250 / 1500 / 1200 and then today was 2250. (And that's from just 41 states, because 9 did not report deaths today.) If the backlog was totally cleared by Tuesday or Wednesday, and those numbers accurately represent current circumstances, that's a huge jump in deaths for a Saturday. ☹️

 

I don't think it was totally cleared by Wednesday, looking at the numbers. I checked, and we were missing something like 2800 deaths from last week, compared to what it should have been, following the curve. Now they all got shoved into this week, inflating the numbers. Looking at the ratios between the days, I'd say they are still catching up today. 

We'll only get real clarity next week, I think. 

[Not_a_Number]

2 hours ago, lovelearnandlive said:

How are the projections holding up? I saw that the 7-day average number of deaths is now up to 2,222 according to worldometers. 😞 I think the highest ever was 2,259 back in April, which will probably be topped tomorrow. I just don’t have a good feeling about this, especially since these deaths aren’t even connected to the post-Thanksgiving spike in cases.

I'd guess it's part of the spike. However, I would say that around 2000 might very well be right, alas. So it's not good. 

[Not_a_Number]

If you look at the 7 day averages after the other long weekends (and they weren't as long as this one!), you can see a spike the week after that's actually above what's expected for the curve. I would guess that's we are we are now. 

[The Governess]

12 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

If you look at the 7 day averages after the other long weekends (and they weren't as long as this one!), you can see a spike the week after that's actually above what's expected for the curve. I would guess that's we are we are now. 

I hope you are right, but either way it’s bad news. With cases and hospitalizations still going up around the country, I think we are in for a hard month. 

I’m in CA and everyone is complaining about the new stay at home order. I’m not excited about it, but what is the alternative?  The Southern CA region had 20% ICU availability on December 3 - today it was already down to 12.5%. The San Joaquin Valley region was at 19.7% on the 3rd, today it was at 8.6%! 😳 

Edited December 6, 2020 by lovelearnandlive

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, lovelearnandlive said:

I hope you are right, but either way it’s bad news. With cases and hospitalizations still going up around the country, I think we are in for a hard month. 

I’m in CA and everyone is complaining about the new stay at home order. I’m not excited about it, but what is the alternative?  The Southern CA region had 20% ICU availability on December 3 - today it was already down to 12.5%. The San Joaquin Valley region was at 19.7 percent on the 3rd, today it was at 8.6! 😳 

Oh, yeah, it's bad news. Expect around 2000 deaths per day (or more) for the foreseeable future, whatever model you use. I'm not celebrating here 😕 . 

I'm hoping the positivity model does hold up, though, because that'll mean around 2000 and not around 3000 deaths per day. We'll see. 

[The Governess]

13 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Oh, yeah, it's bad news. Expect around 2000 deaths per day (or more) for the foreseeable future, whatever model you use. I'm not celebrating here 😕 . 

I'm hoping the positivity model does hold up, though, because that'll mean around 2000 and not around 3000 deaths per day. We'll see. 

Sounds like next week will be the real test. Hoping that it’s not as bad as it feels like it’s going to be!

[Corraleno]

24 minutes ago, lovelearnandlive said:

I’m in CA and everyone is complaining about the new stay at home order. I’m not excited about it, but what is the alternative?  The Southern CA region had 20% ICU availability on December 3 - today it was already down to 12.5%. The San Joaquin Valley region was at 19.7% on the 3rd, today it was at 8.6%! 😳 

I saw an article earlier today that said New Mexico has already exceeded capacity — they are at 102%. That's a poor state with suboptimal healthcare even in good times, combined with a high risk population. 😥

[The Governess]

37 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

I saw an article earlier today that said New Mexico has already exceeded capacity — they are at 102%. That's a poor state with suboptimal healthcare even in good times, combined with a high risk population. 😥

That’s awful. It’s so heartbreaking. Especially since it didn’t have to be like this. 😞

[Not_a_Number]

9 hours ago, Corraleno said:

I saw an article earlier today that said New Mexico has already exceeded capacity — they are at 102%. That's a poor state with suboptimal healthcare even in good times, combined with a high risk population. 😥

This is awful, and SO pointless. The vaccines are coming. Why did we have to overwhelm the hospitals before the vaccines got here?? 

[Roadrunner]

My friend is driving cross country right now and reports restaurants are jammed with people.  

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Roadrunner said:

My friend is driving cross country right now and reports restaurants are jammed with people.  

Good God. Why are people doing this??? Why??? 

[Roadrunner]

3 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Good God. Why are people doing this??? Why??? 

It’s crazy. They are mostly living on food they packed and doing dinner takeout, but yes, she is telling me everywhere you to go pick up some food, it’s all as if there was no covid. 

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, Roadrunner said:

It’s crazy. They are mostly living on food they packed and doing dinner takeout, but yes, she is telling me everywhere you to go pick up some food, it’s all as if there was no covid. 

That's really awful. 

The number of people on this board who've had friends and relatives die has really spiked recently, but I guess it's not enough to convince some people?? I don't get it. 

[Roadrunner]

22 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

That's really awful. 

The number of people on this board who've had friends and relatives die has really spiked recently, but I guess it's not enough to convince some people?? I don't get it. 

I think people mostly look at their own odds. Seriously. I think if you are healthy and in a low risk category, and you couple them with a mortality at less than 3%, people are willing to take a chance. And yes, I don’t think most care about others. 😞 

[GoodGrief3]

16 hours ago, Corraleno said:

I saw an article earlier today that said New Mexico has already exceeded capacity — they are at 102%. That's a poor state with suboptimal healthcare even in good times, combined with a high risk population. 😥

Interesting because that is one of the states that has stayed pretty consistently locked down.

[Not_a_Number]

2 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

I think people mostly look at their own odds. Seriously. I think if you are healthy and in a low risk category, and you couple them with a mortality at less than 3%, people are willing to take a chance. And yes, I don’t think most care about others. 😞 

Nah. People just suck at evaluating odds. Do you know this song? 

https://youtu.be/2tVLDtz80No

[Roadrunner]

14 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Nah. People just suck at evaluating odds. Do you know this song? 

https://youtu.be/2tVLDtz80No

😂😂😂😂😂 where on earth did you find this?! Yes, that’s about right sadly. 

[Corraleno]

2 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Nah. People just suck at evaluating odds. 

Candace Owens thinks it totally stupid to have a vaccine against a disease with a 99% survival rate. Why take a vaccine that's "only 94% effective and makes you sick" when you can just get covid and have a 99% chance of surviving?

(I wish we still had the emoji of that little guy banging his head against the wall, because we could sure use it this year...)

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Roadrunner said:

😂😂😂😂😂 where on earth did you find this?! Yes, that’s about right sadly. 

Oh, gosh, I have a looong playlist of similar songs on YouTube. Russian bards interspersed with a variety of English songs, interspersed with COVID parodies. It's quite the playlist. 

[Not_a_Number]

2 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Candace Owens thinks it totally stupid to have a vaccine against a disease with a 99% survival rate. Why take a vaccine that's "only 94% effective and makes you sick" when you can just get covid and have a 99% chance of surviving?

(I wish we still had the emoji of that little guy banging his head against the wall, because we could sure use it this year...)

Who's Candace Owens? 

And you've got to be kidding me. Someone should point out that the vaccine has a 99.9999% chance of survival, so really, she's not comparing similar quantities there... 

[Not_a_Number]

3 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

😂😂😂😂😂 where on earth did you find this?! Yes, that’s about right sadly. 

Also, thank you for affirming -- this song has been in my head this whole sorry year, because it's SO RIGHT for 2020, but I have no one to say it to, because no one speaks Russian 😂

[Corraleno]

3 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Who's Candace Owens? 

She's a far-right TV and radio "personality" who gets a lot of air time by virtue of being Black, female, and a huge supporter of the current POTUS and his policies.

[Not_a_Number]

1 minute ago, Corraleno said:

She's a far-right TV and radio "personality" who gets a lot of air time by virtue of being Black, female, and a huge supporter of the current POTUS and his policies.

Oh, that explains a lot, sigh. 

[EmilyGF]

20 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

Candace Owens thinks it totally stupid to have a vaccine against a disease with a 99% survival rate. Why take a vaccine that's "only 94% effective and makes you sick" when you can just get covid and have a 99% chance of surviving?

(I wish we still had the emoji of that little guy banging his head against the wall, because we could sure use it this year...)

Polio is asymptomatic in 99% of people...

[Not_a_Number]

On the bright side of things, the numbers today are looking a lot less scary. I'm really hoping last week was simply balancing out the week of Thanksgiving, and that really our 7-day average would be under 2000 if we shifted things over. 

For a bit of perspective, the 2-week average is currently 1856 or so. Since we're going up, we'd expect last week to be worse than the week before, but maybe not by a TON. The steepest increase in recent time has been 500 a week, and that wouldn't make sense, since it would make the average last week 1606 and last week 2106 -- that would make the week before last week only a tiny bit worse than the week before it, and that doesn't sound right. 

So realistically, redistributing, probably the 7-day average last week was something like 1950 and the week before that was something like 1750. Bad, yes, but not as bad as the dire numbers are telling us now. The bump due to the long weekend was really serious, but we can't forget about the dip in the week before. 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Not_a_Number

[The Governess]

I looked at last Sunday’s numbers and we are 200 above those as of now. I’m going to check back in a few hours when worldometers clicks over...

[The Governess]

Assuming the deaths last week included catch-up, I’m hoping that as we progress through this week we will see the 7-day average hold stready rather than continue to increase, starting tomorrow?

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, lovelearnandlive said:

Assuming the deaths last week included catch-up, I’m hoping that as we progress through this week we will see the 7-day average hold stready rather than continue to increase, starting tomorrow?

I'd be unsurprised if it drops. Last week's is artificially inflated. But yes, holding steady would also be a reasonable outcome. 

[Not_a_Number]

4 minutes ago, lovelearnandlive said:

I looked at last Sunday’s numbers and we are 200 above those as of now. I’m going to check back in a few hours when worldometers clicks over...

Yeah, it's true, although last week's Sunday numbers were artificially low for sure. 

[Not_a_Number]

If you look at the shape after a long weekend, you often have either a flat bit or a drop. 

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, kand said:

I can never get over it when I hear someone say, “You have a 96% chance of surviving this!” (I actually think it’s a bit higher for the average person). There is nothing I choose to do in life that has a 4% risk of death. The most dangerous thing I do (driving), I take lots of precautions with to minimize risk. I would think long and hard about ever getting in a car if I had a 1 in 100 chance of dying every time I went somewhere. Yikes. 

Last I checked, the IFR was actually much less than that (something under a percent -- maybe 0.6% in places with hospital issues?) But NOTHING we do has that kind of risk, as you point out. Plus, there are outcomes other than death... I don't want to wind up in the hospital. I don't want to have long COVID. I don't want someone else who's close to me to die. 

This kind of logic is burying one's head in the sand, that's all. 

[The Governess]

https://lbpost.com/news/la-countys-10k-cases-shatters-daily-record-for-coronavirus-infections-icu-capacity-drops-to-10/amp/

This feels very ominous. It was only three weeks ago that the whole state of CA passed 10,000 daily cases. Now LA county alone has hit that number. Hospitalizations in LA county have jumped from 1050 on Nov 16 to 1473 on Nov 23 to 2185 on the 30th to 2855 today. 😞

Edited December 6, 2020 by lovelearnandlive
Fixed link

[Roadrunner]

8 minutes ago, lovelearnandlive said:

https://lbpost.com/news/la-countys-10k-cases-shatters-daily-record-for-coronavirus-infections-icu-capacity-drops-to-10/amp/

This feels very ominous. It was only three weeks ago that the whole state of CA passed 10,000 daily cases. Now LA county alone has hit that number. Hospitalizations in LA county have jumped from 1050 on Nov 16 to 1473 on Nov 23 to 2185 on the 30th to 2855 today. 😞

We are also in CA and it seems the reason shutting down isn’t helping is people are congregating at home. Our county has been more or less shut down (no indoor dining, no gyms, no schools... ) since March and yet nothing has improved. In fact we are having another wave as well. What was the point of destroying small business and the local economy if people are going to get home and get together anyway? 

[Not_a_Number]

5 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

We are also in CA and it seems the reason shutting down isn’t helping is people are congregating at home. Our county has been more or less shut down (no indoor dining, no gyms, no schools... ) since March and yet nothing has improved. In fact we are having another wave as well. What was the point of destroying small business and the local economy if people are going to get home and get together anyway? 

It probably does decrease transmission, but yes, it's not a good trade off. 

This is where the terrible misinformation and the lack of a coherent strategy is really biting us in the rear. NOTHING works if the people aren't on board. 

Edited December 6, 2020 by Not_a_Number

[The Governess]

21 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

We are also in CA and it seems the reason shutting down isn’t helping is people are congregating at home. Our county has been more or less shut down (no indoor dining, no gyms, no schools... ) since March and yet nothing has improved. In fact we are having another wave as well. What was the point of destroying small business and the local economy if people are going to get home and get together anyway? 

I think shutting down does and has helped (especially restaurants and gyms), it just wasn’t enough. How many more cases/deaths would we have in the state if we had kept everything open? Until recently, CA was looking pretty good on a per capita basis compared to other states. But when people decide to socialize anyway (and yes, I agree with you that this is where not all but a lot of the spread is happening), I feel like they bear the responsibility of the state’s economic troubles. I know so many people who complain about how damaging the shutdowns are but are then hanging out with people regularly, going to indoor church services unmasked, and the sherrif’s departments won’t enforce the shutdown anyway. 

I’m sorry, I probably sound pretty negative. I am concerned about the economy too, and have friends that are struggling. I just don’t know what the alternative is when the majority isn’t willing to sacrifice so the virus can stay at manageable levels. 

[Roadrunner]

1 hour ago, lovelearnandlive said:

I think shutting down does and has helped (especially restaurants and gyms), it just wasn’t enough. How many more cases/deaths would we have in the state if we had kept everything open? Until recently, CA was looking pretty good on a per capita basis compared to other states. But when people decide to socialize anyway (and yes, I agree with you that this is where not all but a lot of the spread is happening), I feel like they bear the responsibility of the state’s economic troubles. I know so many people who complain about how damaging the shutdowns are but are then hanging out with people regularly, going to indoor church services unmasked, and the sherrif’s departments won’t enforce the shutdown anyway. 

I’m sorry, I probably sound pretty negative. I am concerned about the economy too, and have friends that are struggling. I just don’t know what the alternative is when the majority isn’t willing to sacrifice so the virus can stay at manageable levels. 

There has been no change in our county in terms of lockdown policy and we still ended up with a new surge. What I am saying is shutting down only works if people do the same at home, but if they are going to have parties at home, it doesn’t matter if you are sitting at a restaurant of your dining room. We have destroyed livelihoods of many families and that sacrifice has been for nothing. 

[Not_a_Number]

7 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

There has been no change in our county in terms of lockdown policy and we still ended up with a new surge. What I am saying is shutting down only works if people do the same at home, but if they are going to have parties at home, it doesn’t matter if you are sitting at a restaurant of your dining room. We have destroyed livelihoods of many families and that sacrifice has been for nothing. 

Oh, I don't know if it's for nothing. You'd have to compare to the world in which there was no shut down. 

[The Governess]

10 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

There has been no change in our county in terms of lockdown policy and we still ended up with a new surge. What I am saying is shutting down only works if people do the same at home, but if they are going to have parties at home, it doesn’t matter if you are sitting at a restaurant of your dining room. We have destroyed livelihoods of many families and that sacrifice has been for nothing. 

I understand. It’s incredibly frustrating. 😞

Edited December 7, 2020 by lovelearnandlive

[Bootsie]

3 hours ago, kand said:

I can never get over it when I hear someone say, “You have a 96% chance of surviving this!” (I actually think it’s a bit higher for the average person). There is nothing I choose to do in life that has a 4% risk of death. The most dangerous thing I do (driving), I take lots of precautions with to minimize risk. I would think long and hard about ever getting in a car if I had a 1 in 100 chance of dying every time I went somewhere. Yikes. 

 

Each time someone goes out, there is not a 4 in 100 chance, or even a 1 in 100 chance of death from COVID.  The chance of contracting COVID from going to a restaurant, taking a walk without a mask on, visiting a friend, etc. is much lower than 100%.  The risk of death is the chance of contracting COVID and then the chance of dying from COVID (which depending upon someone's age and health, may be much less than 1 in 100 chance of dying IF they they do contract COVID).  

I do think people need to be careful, but the risk to an individual each time they go out is much less than 1 in 100.  Just like each time I drive a car, my risk is not the percent of people who die IF they are in a car accident, my risk is IF I get in a car accident and then I die.  

[Roadrunner]

1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

Oh, I don't know if it's for nothing. You'd have to compare to the world in which there was no shut down. 

I am not sure we locally did any better than areas that didn’t shut down. People really need to be on board to achieve anything. I am very frustrated and not very hopeful that the second CA shutdown (which again doesn’t really change anything for us on the ground since we are already closed) will do anything. Unless people get really scared and change their behavior. 

[The Governess]

1 minute ago, Roadrunner said:

I am not sure we locally did any better than areas that didn’t shut down. People really need to be on board to achieve anything. I am very frustrated and not very hopeful that the second CA shutdown (which again doesn’t really change anything for us on the ground since we are already closed) will do anything. Unless people get really scared and change their behavior. 

I’m not very hopeful either and the scary part is that if things really start going south, there aren’t any remaining actions to take. 

[Not_a_Number]

6 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

I am not sure we locally did any better than areas that didn’t shut down. People really need to be on board to achieve anything. I am very frustrated and not very hopeful that the second CA shutdown (which again doesn’t really change anything for us on the ground since we are already closed) will do anything. Unless people get really scared and change their behavior. 

Hmmmm. That'd be an interesting comparison... 

[Not_a_Number]

2 minutes ago, lovelearnandlive said:

I’m not very hopeful either and the scary part is that if things really start going south, there aren’t any remaining actions to take. 

Yeah. It's way too late to get people on board, and that's the important part. 

[The Governess]

So we ended up with around 1075 deaths today, around 250 more than last Sunday. A big increase but not as big as the increase we saw yesterday, so that’s good. 7-day average is now at 2258. Anxious to see how this number changes throughout the coming week...

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, lovelearnandlive said:

So we ended up with around 1075 deaths today, around 250 more than last Sunday. A big increase but not as big as the increase we saw yesterday, so that’s good. 7-day average is now at 2258. Anxious to see how this number changes throughout the coming week...

But remember, the Sunday before that, the weekly average was 1482. That was artificially low; 2258 is artificially inflated. There's no doubt about it. 

[Scarlett]

6 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Nah. People just suck at evaluating odds. Do you know this song? 

https://youtu.be/2tVLDtz80No

Um I need the English version 

[Not_a_Number]

17 minutes ago, Scarlett said:

Um I need the English version 

Sorry, this was definitely Roadrunner specific, lol. 

Let me grab you a vaguely mangled translation of the lyrics: 

 

A provincial town in the summer heat,
The music plays in the morning at the dancing floor.
"Rio-Rita", "Rio Rita," people dance the Foxtrot,
It's 1941 on the dancing floor.

The Germans are in Poland, but our country is strong. 
Within a month or so the war will end. 
"Rio-Rita", "Rio Rita," people dance the Foxtrot,
It's 1941 on the dancing floor.

A provincial town in the summer heat,
The music plays in the morning at the dancing floor.
"Rio-Rita", "Rio Rita", the trumpet plays. 
The hair isn't shaved yet, they've still got their legs. 

The Germans are in Poland, but our country is strong. 
Within a month or so the war will end. 
"Rio-Rita", "Rio Rita," people dance the Foxtrot,
It's 1941 on the dancing floor.

Edited December 7, 2020 by Not_a_Number