Sad About Chris Chistie

[Wheres Toto]

We did dentist appointments in June I think, dermatologist a couple weeks ago and the kids have their annual physicals in November.  I want them to get flu shots and I trust their pediatrician more than CVS. 

I should make an appointment with my doctor for a flu shot but haven't wanted to call.

[historically accurate]

55 minutes ago, Quill said:

This is off-shooting the topic by a lot, but I am also very conflicted about certain appointments. I am well past due for a dental check up and I cancelled ds’s as well. Thing is, I wanted to find a new dentist before the pandemic. Ours is not terrible, but I feel like she’s a “fill every divot” type of dentist, which I don’t like. I liked the conservative strategies of our previous dentist, but he retired. He would literally say, “There’s some breakdown in the enamel here, so try rinsing with Phosflor twice a day and we’ll see if we can hold off on a filling.” 

So...I can’t decide. I always feel like such a jerk leaving a dentist/hairdresser/vet. And I don’t know any way to find a new dentist who does this conservative thing like my prior dentist did. 

I am having this same problem. My dentist also "overdoes" in my opinion; he's also out of network for my insurance since it changed in 2020. I don't know that I want to try a new dentist in the middle of a pandemic though, not to mention I have a kid who is terrified of many male doctors. DH just said last week he is going to try a new dentist, so he's going to be my guinea pig. 

[TCB]

8 hours ago, Bootsie said:

But, when you have a college president in the midst of the ceremony, unmasked and shaking hands... 

Yes it would be interesting to see if that has an effect on compliance at his university.

[Not_a_Number]

49 minutes ago, DorothyNJ said:

We did dentist appointments in June I think, dermatologist a couple weeks ago and the kids have their annual physicals in November.  I want them to get flu shots and I trust their pediatrician more than CVS. 

I should make an appointment with my doctor for a flu shot but haven't wanted to call.

I think I'm going to get a flu shot at the urgent care, since I don't want to wait... if I wait two weeks, who knows what the positivity will be? I have an appointment made, but I'll cancel it if things get out of hand here. 

[Joker]

12 hours ago, Pen said:

 

I haven’t heard so far, but would not be surprised. I agree he seems to have something and there seems to have been a superspread CV19 situation so that CV19 seems likely. 

A high up in Coast Guard was also positive in a news feed I saw .   I think once CV19 gets going in a group it tends to hit quite a few people. Idk if the Coast Guard person had overlap with Positive cases in White House or Legislature. 

I’ve read there was an event INSIDE the White House (no masks and no distancing) the day AFTER the super spreader event for Gold Star families, so many military personnel were involved. It sounds like an absolute mess!

[J-rap]

10 hours ago, Catwoman said:

I don’t go to the grocery store, either! 😆

Maybe it depends on the area you live in too...  Here, clinics and hospitals are super careful.  There are usually security guards outside of clinics to verify that you even have an appointment, then you walk in and stand in a line (although there usually is none) generally about 10 feet apart from the person in front of you, you're asked all the questions and given a temp check...  Then you go to the regular check-in.  If you wait in a lobby, each chair is probably 10-12 feet apart.  The majority of times, there are maybe 2 - 3 other people in the lobby at the most.  (I think they must stagger times?)  Every person working at the hospital or clinic wears a mask, a face visor, and gloves.  

We've had about two dozen essential appointments and four surgeries throughout this time, so  unfortunately have had a lot of time in health facilities here!  (Surgeries were drop-off only.  No family member could go in, or even visit if a hospital stay is required.)  At least we've always felt safe!

[SereneHome]

11 hours ago, Catwoman said:

 

Am I the only one who keeps putting these things off? I hate missing my regular appointments and tests, but I am so concerned about the potential exposure that I don’t know what to do! 😞 

We did dental cleaning but  none of us, not even kids had their annual physicals. One kid had eye dr appt bc he definitely needed new glasses. That's it.

I scheduled all appts first thing Monday morning.

My friend's dr is doing an amazing thing  - if a kid needed a vaccine, they bring it out to your car and do it so you don't have to go in. I don't think my dr's office is doing that.

[Joker]

@Pen Here’s an article about the Gold Star family event and it states the Coast Guard official who tested positive was in attendance.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2020/10/06/joint-chiefs-isolation-after-coast-guard-admiral-tests-positive-coronavirus-pentagon-says/%3foutputType=amp

Edited October 7, 2020 by Joker

[Bootsie]

2 hours ago, TCB said:

Yes it would be interesting to see if that has an effect on compliance at his university.

Given that the university had to move fully online for two weeks earlier in the semester and students were being threatened with disciplinary action for behavior, it seems as if he would want to go out of his way to make sure that he was a role model.  I read one place that there had already been an incident of a picture of him in the midst of a group of people that caused an uproar earlier this semester--but I have not been able to verify that.  

[SanDiegoMom]

14 hours ago, sassenach said:

I think it's 100% because LA has a really high population, high density, high number of low-income households living in crowded conditions, and it was seeded early. Once it took off there, it was really hard to get a handle on. 

People think it hit LA in February even -- I read somewhere that there were 50 percent more flu like cases seen at hospitals than the previous year. 

I know at UCLA LOTS of kids got sick and they didn't know what it was.  My daughter got sick for a few days (fever and fatigue) and her roommate almost went to the ER because of her coughing and fever.  This was early to mid February.  Of course everyone gets sick at college so who really knows and it's too late to test for antibodies for my daughter.  

[Jean in Newcastle]

2 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

I think I'm going to get a flu shot at the urgent care, since I don't want to wait... if I wait two weeks, who knows what the positivity will be? I have an appointment made, but I'll cancel it if things get out of hand here. 

When I got my flu shot they told me that it takes 2 weeks for it to give you protection. So the sooner the better. 

[DawnM]

So frustrated with my friend.   She had a stroke a year ago and once her church opened up, she has been going, often without a mask.

She just told me that 5 out of their 6 pastors have come down with Covid, one is in ICU right now.

But it is Ohio and if they are allowed to open, gosh darn it, they will!

Edited October 7, 2020 by DawnM

[mathnerd]

3 hours ago, Joker said:

I’ve read there was an event INSIDE the White House (no masks and no distancing) the day AFTER the super spreader event for Gold Star families, so many military personnel were involved. It sounds like an absolute mess!

I read an article recently that said that "dying in the line of duty" used to mean taking a bullet for the President. Apparently, now, the people who served him and his guests Diet Coke at the White House are coming down with Covid and staff on his current secret service detail are very unhappy with being exposed to the virus.

[Not_a_Number]

2 hours ago, SanDiegoMom said:

People think it hit LA in February even -- I read somewhere that there were 50 percent more flu like cases seen at hospitals than the previous year. 

I know at UCLA LOTS of kids got sick and they didn't know what it was.  My daughter got sick for a few days (fever and fatigue) and her roommate almost went to the ER because of her coughing and fever.  This was early to mid February.  Of course everyone gets sick at college so who really knows and it's too late to test for antibodies for my daughter.  

I saw that study. It was definitely rather confusing... the question is why it didn’t spread more.

[SanDiegoMom]

7 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I saw that study. It was definitely rather confusing... the question is why it didn’t spread more.

Yeah -- LA didn't see it's big increases until the summer, even though it was suspected to be there early.  

[Not_a_Number]

3 minutes ago, SanDiegoMom said:

Yeah -- LA didn't see it's big increases until the summer, even though it was suspected to be there early.  

All the randomness, I guess. We don’t understand this virus that well.

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, mathnerd said:

I read an article recently that said that "dying in the line of duty" used to mean taking a bullet for the President. Apparently, now, the people who served him and his guests Diet Coke at the White House are coming down with Covid and staff on his current secret service detail are very unhappy with being exposed to the virus.

Yes. I keep saying that they are supposed to take a bullet for the president, not have the president shoot them. Which this sort of is. 

The president is also supposed to listen to their advice regarding security. 

[mathnerd]

7 hours ago, ktgrok said:

Yes. I keep saying that they are supposed to take a bullet for the president, not have the president shoot them. Which this sort of is. 

The president is also supposed to listen to their advice regarding security. 

There is an obligation in federal employment that employees should be protected from exposure to deadly viruses. 

Staying on topic: One of Trump's military aides (the one whose duty is to  carry the "Nuclear Football" for the President, i.e. the suitcase carrying the nuclear code) is infected with Covid from being around the WH folks according to bloomberg news.

Edited October 8, 2020 by mathnerd

[Pen]

1 hour ago, Not_a_Number said:

All the randomness, I guess. We don’t understand this virus that well.

I don’t think it is especially random.

and I don’t think that weather or AC are key or else LA and OC would be closer.

 

in addition to factors others above have put, I think CV19 started circulating a great deal with globe travelers like people high up in entertainment industry and international business people and large universities with many international students, and guests, and many direct flights particularly  from China but also travel from Italy and elsewhere— all of which LA has a lot of. 

[Bootsie]

18 minutes ago, Pen said:

I don’t think it is especially random.

and I don’t think that weather or AC are key or else LA and OC would be closer.

 

in addition to factors others above have put, I think CV19 started circulating a great deal with globe travelers like people high up in entertainment industry and international business people and large universities with many international students, and guests, and many direct flights particularly  from China but also travel from Italy and elsewhere— all of which LA has a lot of. 

Why do you not think it is especially random? 

The more I see about infections the more and more it appears that way to me. I have seen studies that suggest that 80% of the people who have COVID do not pass it on to another person, but then you have large outbreaks.  That also aligns with my personal experience of knowing people who did not infect anyone in their household, workplace, classroom, or church although they had COVID and were out and about (unknowingly) when they would have been positive and probably most infectious.  

Then you have an event with a large number of people who are infected.  At the same time, there are thousands of similar events where no one is infected.  

[Not_a_Number]

23 minutes ago, Pen said:

I don’t think it is especially random.

and I don’t think that weather or AC are key or else LA and OC would be closer.

 

in addition to factors others above have put, I think CV19 started circulating a great deal with globe travelers like people high up in entertainment industry and international business people and large universities with many international students, and guests, and many direct flights particularly  from China but also travel from Italy and elsewhere— all of which LA has a lot of. 

The whole point of a high dispersion factor is that it IS quite random. There’s a large element of chance, since most chains of transmission die out, but some lead to 100s of cases.

 

[Pen]

51 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

Why do you not think it is especially random? 

The more I see about infections the more and more it appears that way to me. I have seen studies that suggest that 80% of the people who have COVID do not pass it on to another person, but then you have large outbreaks.  That also aligns with my personal experience of knowing people who did not infect anyone in their household, workplace, classroom, or church although they had COVID and were out and about (unknowingly) when they would have been positive and probably most infectious.  

Then you have an event with a large number of people who are infected.  At the same time, there are thousands of similar events where no one is infected.  

 

In a sense yes, and in a sense no, as I see it. 

To me it does not seem random in the same way that pulling colored marbles out of a bag does.

It seems more like “turbulence” where we cannot predict situation.  We don’t know which water molecule will come out the pipe first in a turbulent situation. 

But don’t know, and extreme “complexity”  does not seem quite the same as random to me. Though maybe in there circumstances it doesn’t matter, and since we do not know perhaps may as well be totally random. 

 

Maybe I just don’t want to acknowledge “random” which could suggest no personal action can make a difference. 

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, kdsuomi said:

LA County likely has more multigenerational housing than Orange County, LA County has a lot more poverty than Orange County, many multigenerational houses in Orange County are Asian (usually less affected), LA County is much larger inland so likely has more air conditiong than Orange County, and LA County also has more in the way of clubs, bars, etc. There are lots of reasons why two geographically close locations have such different outcomes. (I believe Orange County's first official (not anywhere close to actual first infection)  case was close to when LA County's was, too. 

Those make sense, thank you. We lived in LA for a summer, but I don't know it very well. 

[Jean in Newcastle]

32 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

In a sense yes, and in a sense no, as I see it. 

To me it does not seem random in the same way that pulling colored marbles out of a bag does.

It seems more like “turbulence” where we cannot predict situation.  We don’t know which water molecule will come out the pipe first in a turbulent situation. 

But don’t know, and extreme “complexity”  does not seem quite the same as random to me. Though maybe in there circumstances it doesn’t matter, and since we do not know perhaps may as well be totally random. 

 

Maybe I just don’t want to acknowledge “random” which could suggest no personal action can make a difference. 

I agree that it isn’t random in the true sense of the word. You still need a viral vector. You still need a certain viral load (though I don’t know if they know what that is). I think that it seems random because there are things that we don’t know- like if there are things that make someone more susceptible to getting the virus to begin with and if there are things that keep certain people from getting it. There are theories like vitamin d status but I don’t think that it is completely known. 

[Corraleno]

7 hours ago, Plum said:

This is becoming a major threat to national security. 

No kidding!  After Admiral Charles Ray tested positive, the following have all had to quarantine:  Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley; the Vice Chairman; the Army chief of staff; the Naval Operations Chief; the Air Force chief of staff; the CyberCom Commander; the SpaceForce operations chief; the director of the U.S. National Security Agency, Gen. Paul Nakasone; the Chief of the National Guard, General Daniel Hokanson; and the deputy commandant of the Marine Corps, Gen. Gary Thomas.

[Not_a_Number]

59 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I agree that it isn’t random in the true sense of the word. You still need a viral vector. You still need a certain viral load (though I don’t know if they know what that is). I think that it seems random because there are things that we don’t know- like if there are things that make someone more susceptible to getting the virus to begin with and if there are things that keep certain people from getting it. There are theories like vitamin d status but I don’t think that it is completely known. 

But I think it's also quite random in terms of... well, just randomness. Whether something turns into a superspreader event depends on whether there was anyone there with COVID who was a spreader. So then an event could easily produce either 60 infections or 0. That winds up feeling very chaotic, and it's very hard to think about, especially without a bit of a probability background. 

[Pen]

5 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

But I think it's also quite random in terms of... well, just randomness. Whether something turns into a superspreader event depends on whether there was anyone there with COVID who was a spreader. So then an event could easily produce either 60 infections or 0. That winds up feeling very chaotic, and it's very hard to think about, especially without a bit of a probability background. 

 

Or I guess even something like my nephew getting in at an outside summer camp despite precautions...    while my sister who is a doctor also using precautions but indoors and seemingly more likely to have gotten it (even more likely for that to have happened in January or February before lockdowns and plexiglass and masks and all that), did not. So far anyway. 

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, Pen said:

Or I guess even something like my nephew getting in at an outside summer camp despite precautions...    while my sister who is a doctor also using precautions but indoors and seemingly more likely to have gotten it (even more likely for that to have happened in January or February before lockdowns and plexiglass and masks and all that), did not. So far anyway. 

Right, exactly. And that really depends on some very random-feeling things, like how strong a spreader was around, and how susceptible one is. 

Some things are probably more predictable than we know. But some things really are random. The movements of millions of people aren't super predictable. You can't ever be sure exactly who is going to be at which party, or exactly the air conditions at those parties, or... it's just too much. 

It's like those butterflies flapping their wings and causing a hurricane 😉 . No, that doesn't really happen, but it's an unstable system -- small changes in behavior result in outsized changes of outcome, especially without sufficient mitigation. 

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

I agree that it isn’t random in the true sense of the word. You still need a viral vector. You still need a certain viral load (though I don’t know if they know what that is). I think that it seems random because there are things that we don’t know- like if there are things that make someone more susceptible to getting the virus to begin with and if there are things that keep certain people from getting it. There are theories like vitamin d status but I don’t think that it is completely known. 

This reminds me of the difference between necessary and sufficient. There are certain things that we know are needed for the virus to transmit, but those things are not always sufficient for transmission. 

[kbutton]

10 hours ago, DawnM said:

But it is Ohio and if they are allowed to open, gosh darn it, they will!

Yep. Our Ohio church has decent and published COVID guidelines--recent pictures the church has posted online show the church not following their own guidelines. I'm disappointed, dismayed, and feeling like it's a lie and a betrayal. I get that people can have different ideas of what is safe and what they are willing to take a risk for, but to say one thing and do another is very much not what church is about. 

[Joker]

Did anyone see the debate last night? I know Pence has said he’s tested negative but he really looked like he had pink eye. We know pink eye can be a symptom of Covid and we know many in his inner circle have tested positive the past week. I would have been very uncomfortable being anywhere near that place. 

[Not_a_Number]

3 hours ago, Joker said:

Did anyone see the debate last night? I know Pence has said he’s tested negative but he really looked like he had pink eye. We know pink eye can be a symptom of Covid and we know many in his inner circle have tested positive the past week. I would have been very uncomfortable being anywhere near that place. 

I was reading about this, and apparently pinkeye is a pretty uncommon symptom. So it's not unlikely it's unrelated. Curious, though. 

[Not_a_Number]

39 minutes ago, kand said:

You might like this probability approach to whether it was Covid related:
https://twitter.com/CT_Bergstrom/status/1314108094616465408?s=20

 

Hahahahaha, ok, you win!!! I didn’t think to look up the probability that a random person without COVID would have it, but that’s an excellent point — conjunctivitis is much MORE rare in the general population, so of course it is information.

Yep. I fell in a standard conditional probability trap. Whoops. 

[Guest]

If Chris Christie looks in on this thread, I think he will be very sad that we haven’t mentioned him in like five pages. 

#sorrychris

[Jean in Newcastle]

23 minutes ago, Quill said:

If Chris Christie looks in on this thread, I think he will be very sad that we haven’t mentioned him in like five pages. 

#sorrychris

This got me curious so I googled.  Apparently he remains hospitalized? 

[Guest]

Just now, Jean in Newcastle said:

This got me curious so I googled.  Apparently he remains hospitalized? 

Yeah, I haven’t seen any word on how he is doing or his treatment plan. 

[teachermom2834]

I’ve been a little worried about no news regarding Christie. 

[Bootsie]

20 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

Right, exactly. And that really depends on some very random-feeling things, like how strong a spreader was around, and how susceptible one is. 

Some things are probably more predictable than we know. But some things really are random. The movements of millions of people aren't super predictable. You can't ever be sure exactly who is going to be at which party, or exactly the air conditions at those parties, or... it's just too much. 

It's like those butterflies flapping their wings and causing a hurricane 😉 . No, that doesn't really happen, but it's an unstable system -- small changes in behavior result in outsized changes of outcome, especially without sufficient mitigation. 

It definitely appears to be a black swan phenomena where rare events have a disproportional impact on the outcome.  

[Pen]

 

https://www.nj.com/news/2020/10/chris-christie-still-hospitalized-with-covid-19-heres-the-type-of-treatments-doctors-say-he-may-be-getting.html

1 hour ago, Quill said:

If Chris Christie looks in on this thread, I think he will be very sad that we haven’t mentioned him in like five pages. 

#sorrychris

 

Or maybe glad that he isn’t having a free for all frenzy about his personal details 😁?

 

[hopeallgoeswell]

21 hours ago, Not_a_Number said:

But I think it's also quite random in terms of... well, just randomness. Whether something turns into a superspreader event depends on whether there was anyone there with COVID who was a spreader. So then an event could easily produce either 60 infections or 0. That winds up feeling very chaotic, and it's very hard to think about, especially without a bit of a probability background. 

But isn't it like that with pathogens?  Put 100 people in a room with a person infected with *something* communicable.  Lather, rinse, repeat with the same infected person and a different set of 100 people.  The same number of people aren't going to get it in each group, and of those who get it, a different number will be asymptomatic as opposed to symptomatic.  I think there is evidence emerging of cross reactive T cell immunity, like https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2598-9, and a case being made for adequate vitamin D and zinc levels, which, if I am remembering correctly, @Pen and some other members have already posted links.  So, I guess it's random in the sense that we haven't been able to study this specific virus from every angle yet, but it is still just a virus and the human immune system hasn't changed.  

[Bootsie]

3 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

But isn't it like that with pathogens?  Put 100 people in a room with a person infected with *something* communicable.  Lather, rinse, repeat with the same infected person and a different set of 100 people.  The same number of people aren't going to get it in each group, and of those who get it, a different number will be asymptomatic as opposed to symptomatic.  I think there is evidence emerging of cross reactive T cell immunity, like https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2598-9, and a case being made for adequate vitamin D and zinc levels, which, if I am remembering correctly, @Pen and some other members have already posted links.  So, I guess it's random in the sense that we haven't been able to study this specific virus from every angle yet, but it is still just a virus and the human immune system hasn't changed.  

But, this virus seems to be different in that with many viruses you put 100 people in a room with the pathogen and a somewhat consistent number will become infected.  With this disease it appears 80% of the time no one gets the virus and then a small percentage of the time a lot of people get the virus.  So, the average may be five people out of 100 would get the virus--but most of the time it is zero and then rarely it is in the 100's .  It is my understanding that most viruses have a more stable, predictable outcome of the number of people infected.  

[Not_a_Number]

1 hour ago, Bootsie said:

It definitely appears to be a black swan phenomena where rare events have a disproportional impact on the outcome.  

Yep. I think that’s the biggest takeaway from the dispersion factor stuff.

[Not_a_Number]

11 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

But isn't it like that with pathogens?  Put 100 people in a room with a person infected with *something* communicable.  Lather, rinse, repeat with the same infected person and a different set of 100 people.  The same number of people aren't going to get it in each group, and of those who get it, a different number will be asymptomatic as opposed to symptomatic.  I think there is evidence emerging of cross reactive T cell immunity, like https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2598-9, and a case being made for adequate vitamin D and zinc levels, which, if I am remembering correctly, @Pen and some other members have already posted links.  So, I guess it's random in the sense that we haven't been able to study this specific virus from every angle yet, but it is still just a virus and the human immune system hasn't changed.  

No, usually the range of people infected will be distributed in a much more predictable way. Do you know how to visualize distributions of outcomes? That’s the easiest way to describe the difference: in terms of probability distributions.

Edited October 8, 2020 by Not_a_Number

[Bootsie]

41 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

Yep. I think that’s the biggest takeaway from the dispersion factor stuff.

I think this dispersion factor has hampered our understanding of the virus and how it spreads, and I think it has contributed to difficulties in mitigation procedures.  We are spending a great deal of effort on mitigation factors that often aren't necessary because USUALLY the virus will not spread.  We get tired from taking all of those measures.  And then, there is that unusual, rare event that has large spread, which would be what we really want to be able to prevent--but they are so rare and unusual it is hard to target our mitigation efforts at those.  

[hopeallgoeswell]

33 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

No, usually the range of people infected will be distributed in a much more predictable way. Do you know how to visualize distributions of outcomes? That’s the easiest way to describe the difference: in terms of probability distributions.

Do you have any studies for that?  It would be helpful if I could see it :).  

 

I found these: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0495_article and https://www.nature.com/articles/438293a

 

At any rate, hopefully we come a bit closer to understanding why SSE happen.

[Not_a_Number]

45 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Do you have any studies for that?  It would be helpful if I could see it :).  

 

I found these: https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/26/6/20-0495_article and https://www.nature.com/articles/438293a

 

At any rate, hopefully we come a bit closer to understanding why SSE happen.

I don't have a study, per se, but The Atlantic had a good article on the dispersion factor: 

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/09/k-overlooked-variable-driving-pandemic/616548/

[Not_a_Number]

1 hour ago, Bootsie said:

I think this dispersion factor has hampered our understanding of the virus and how it spreads, and I think it has contributed to difficulties in mitigation procedures.  We are spending a great deal of effort on mitigation factors that often aren't necessary because USUALLY the virus will not spread.  We get tired from taking all of those measures.  And then, there is that unusual, rare event that has large spread, which would be what we really want to be able to prevent--but they are so rare and unusual it is hard to target our mitigation efforts at those.  

I would assume that working hard to limit large gatherings indoors would be the way to target those. Those are the places it spreads, so if you limit that, you really cut the average rate of transmission. That's why I was so happy when NYC didn't open indoor dining in the summer... it seemed like it was targeting that. 

[Bootsie]

8 minutes ago, Not_a_Number said:

I would assume that working hard to limit large gatherings indoors would be the way to target those. Those are the places it spreads, so if you limit that, you really cut the average rate of transmission. That's why I was so happy when NYC didn't open indoor dining in the summer... it seemed like it was targeting that. 

We know that a large indoor gathering can be a super spreader event.  What I think we know little about is how much a super spreader can spread outside of a large event.  What are the chances that a supers spreader infects five people at the grocery store and then five at the pharmacy and then five in an elevator, etc.  Some of the early super spreader in South Korea seemed to be tied to a series of activities of the woman rather than simply one event. Those are much more difficult to track and document.   

[Not_a_Number]

Just now, Bootsie said:

We know that a large indoor gathering can be a super spreader event.  What I think we know little about is how much a super spreader can spread outside of a large event.  What are the chances that a supers spreader infects five people at the grocery store and then five at the pharmacy and then five in an elevator, etc.  Some of the early super spreader in South Korea seemed to be tied to a series of activities of the woman rather than simply one event. Those are much more difficult to track and document.   

Actually, it looks like the vast majority were infected at the church events:

https://graphics.reuters.com/CHINA-HEALTH-SOUTHKOREA-CLUSTERS/0100B5G33SB/index.html

[mathnerd]

Christie says that he was in the ICU and that he was wrong about not wearing masks:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/politics-news/chris-christie-says-he-was-icu-7-days-battling-covid-n1243589