How/When will the Covid-19 vaccine change life?

[Ali in OR]

When the vaccine is available, the first problem is that you can't vaccinate everyone at once. CDC is talking about priorities being health care workers, then other essential workers, people at high risk, and people over a certain age all before the general population. Do you think things will return more to normal after a certain amount of time, when a certain percent of the general population gets vaccinated, or when case numbers truly get down to very low numbers? I'm thinking about areas where a large percent of the population is anti-vaccine, or doesn't trust that this particular vaccine will really be safe--how does that affect when it's really safe to resume normal activity?

This is a post-and-run. I'm off to Costco but will check back later!

[maize]

For my family, life will look more normal once we have all been vaccinated. I do hope my husband who is high risk will be vaccinated early, I worry most about him.

For my community, I imagine things will look more normal once the vaccine is widely available to anyone who wants it. I don't know what the uptake rate would be but 40% would make a big difference. People who are likely to refuse the vaccine mostly seem to be in the covid skeptical camp and are already living their lives mostly as if covid did not exist.

The group who will be impacted for the longest stretch of time are those with immune or other issues that might make vaccination not safe--those are the folks who have to rely on herd immunity and if many people refuse the vaccine herd immunity could be a long way off.

[Catwoman]

Personally, a vaccine on its own will be great, but I won’t feel comfortable until there is also a solid, reliable treatment — something along the lines of Tamiflu, except for Covid.  

My reasoning is that, if this new vaccine is anything like the flu vaccine, it’s not always tremendously effective. Don’t get me wrong — I do think some effectiveness is far better than having no vaccine at all!  But I also realize that I am not willing to gamble my family’s lives on a vaccine until it has been proven to be very effective — and until there is also an easily-accessible, at-home medication that has also been proven to be very effective at stopping Covid in its tracks and preventing serious illness, I will still not feel comfortable going back to the “old normal” of no masks and no social distancing, and you still won’t find me out shopping in stores or eating in restaurants, even with my mask on.

I realize that our personal family circumstances make it necessary for us to be ultra-careful, though, and I certainly understand if others ae comfortable with fewer reassurances than we need to feel safe.

[JennyD]

I think it will depend quite a bit on the details of the first vaccines and the distribution systems for getting them into people's arms.   The vaccines are likely going to vary as to whether they protect against infection or just disease, effectiveness across age groups, durability of immunity, etc.  And we're going to need different distribution systems depending on those specifics.  A vaccine that reduces disease in 18-55 year olds but doesn't do much for older people should be deployed differently from a vaccine that induces a strong immune response in the elderly, for example.  

It does seem unlikely that the first vaccines will be approved for children right away, though, and I don't think that life will really get back to normal until either children can get vaccinated or case rates have been driven down to very low levels.  

This is a good article about what to expect when vaccine results start rolling in.  

[Catwoman]

12 minutes ago, happysmileylady said:

I think there are likely individuals who will forever change some or many of their behaviors regarding things like masks, large gatherings, etc.  

But I think that in terms of society, we will at some point, lose mask mandates, lose restrictions on gathering sizes, the temp checks will go away, hospitals will start allowing visitors again, all the schools will have in person school again, etc etc.  One thing I hope goes away, but I fear will not, is the temp cameras.  Once they are installed, it would be too much of a pain to uninstall them.  And I am not sure what that means for medical data privacy going forward.  Fevers happen for a very large number of reasons that aren't contagious, and sometimes, people really do feel ok to work even though they might be dealing with an illness.  

 

Personally, I think the temp cameras are kind of creepy!!!

[JennyD]

Yeah, I am pretty skeptical of all of those articles saying, 'We'll never hug again!' or "We will be wearing masks forever!"  There is an awful lot of new technology (testing, treatments, vaccines) coming down the pike and between that and community immunity, sometime next year the risk of getting sick from SARS-COV-2 is going to go way, way down for most people in rich countries. Hopefully in poorer countries as well, but I fear that will take longer.  

 

[Catwoman]

5 minutes ago, Danae said:

One thing I hope lasts is masking when you know you are likely sick but need to go out. For example, going to a minute clinic at a Target or CVS for a strep test, or stopping at the pharmacy to pick up cough meds when you have a cold.  It would be lovely if everyone kept their masks and used them in those types of situations. 

 

Yes! And if people know a family member is sick, it would be great if they would wear masks in public in case they, too, are contagious, so they don’t unknowingly infect others.

[Catwoman]

2 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

Given the large number of people who refuse masks even when it's mandated, I doubt that's likely to happen on a large scale.  Some folks probably will, but I don't think most will.  

 

You’re probably right about that, but my hope is that at least some people will do it.

Edited August 27, 2020 by Catwoman
My iPad has a mind of its own!

[Ali in OR]

2 hours ago, Danae said:

One thing I hope lasts is masking when you know you are likely sick but need to go out. For example, going to a minute clinic at a Target or CVS for a strep test, or stopping at the pharmacy to pick up cough meds when you have a cold.  It would be lovely if everyone kept their masks and used them in those types of situations. 

I want to see more masks in church in winter! I hope passing the peace is gone forever, but maybe if I'm wearing a mask people would just avoid me or wave from afar...

[Catwoman]

Just now, Ali in OR said:

I want to see more masks in church in winter! I hope passing the peace is gone forever, but maybe if I'm wearing a mask people would just avoid me or wave from afar...

 

Pretend you’re about to sneeze a couple of times. That should do the trick! 😉 

[Ali in OR]

2 hours ago, JennyD said:

I think it will depend quite a bit on the details of the first vaccines and the distribution systems for getting them into people's arms.   The vaccines are likely going to vary as to whether they protect against infection or just disease, effectiveness across age groups, durability of immunity, etc.  And we're going to need different distribution systems depending on those specifics.  A vaccine that reduces disease in 18-55 year olds but doesn't do much for older people should be deployed differently from a vaccine that induces a strong immune response in the elderly, for example.  

It does seem unlikely that the first vaccines will be approved for children right away, though, and I don't think that life will really get back to normal until either children can get vaccinated or case rates have been driven down to very low levels.  

This is a good article about what to expect when vaccine results start rolling in.  

Thanks for the article--I learned something today! Unfortunately here in Americ, I fear that all that will matter is which vaccine is first. That's the one we'll be going with.

[Lb20inblue]

I'm in a negative space and I do not believe enough people will get the vaccine to make a nation wide difference.  There are people who won't even vaccinate their kids at all, never mind use a new vaccine.  I wish we could just have a nightly science class with experts to explain basic immunology to the nation.    

[Farrar]

I think it will depend on people. Enough people need to get the vaccine to make it more effective overall. I think it's likely that it'll take at least 6 months to roll it out to enough people to even start making those changes.

I am cautiously hopeful about the science end. I'm feeling abysmally depressed about people actually doing what they need to do. But maybe we'll have a coordinated federal response by then and will see cases drop, a solid rollout of the vaccine, and a clear coordination of who gets access to the vaccine when and a good campaign to get everyone taking it. Plus, good requirements to take it before resuming activities. I have a feeling that more schools and private activity groups will be more stringent about enforcement after all this.

[HS Mom in NC]

Different factors will come into play:

Effective treatments that aren't the vaccine: If they figure out an effective, affordable  way to treat this before full blown symptoms appear and put lives at risk, that's a game changer.

COVID mutations: If it mutates quickly and more severely, then even vaccine development will be a big disappointment.

Which mask wearing and social distancing policies come into play: Keeping an eye on infection rates in public gatherings that result in more quarantines might influence some resistant business owners and public school parents to comply with recommendations and maybe even enforcement just so there are enough healthy staff on hand to provide services in person.  

[Pen]

 

Apologies for big print - I am on a cellphone and don’t have control over that afaik. 

Also, I don’t have a crystal ball 🔮  for future after available vaccine!

 

Personally, I would like multiple options to be allowed .  I think successfully dealing with CV19 depends on an ____ + _____ + _____ approach , not a single magic bullet .  I don’t even expect an excellent vaccine to be a magic bullet. 

 

 

 

Even when we get a vaccine, I think we should stick with masks and hygiene and distance as able as we gradually open things back up, because we don’t know if a vaccine will be ____% protective even for those who get it, nor for how long.  (I realize lots of people already don’t and more will refuse after a vaccine arrives, but I think a multi-pronged approach should be used by as many of us who will do it as we can. )

 

 

 

Also, I know it’s a thing that WTMers by and large are against, but I want access to HCQ+zinc; Ivermectin etc to be readily allowed ASAP now; other medications treatments access as they arise allowed; and also, of course, access to vaccines when they are available.  

 

I think prioritizing HCW, teachers, other essential workers, high risk people to have first dibs on vaccines will make sense.  Targeted  Vaccinating in locations with outbreaks / expected outbreaks to help reduce spread also 

 

[Elizabeth86]

A bit off topic, but not.  Did ya'll hear the Virginia Health Commissioner say he'll mandate the covid 19 vaccine for VA as soon as it's available to the public.  Yikes! I'm generally pro vaccine and my kids have had all their vaccines and what not, but I'm not really on board with this. I'd like it to be optional. 

[Lawyer&Mom]

5 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

Given the large number of people who refuse masks even when it's mandated, I doubt that's likely to happen on a large scale.  Some folks probably will, but I don't think most will.  

I will.  For one thing I actually own a whole bunch of reusable cloth masks now, which I never did before.  If you have them, not use them?

[kbutton]

5 hours ago, Danae said:

One thing I hope lasts is masking when you know you are likely sick but need to go out. For example, going to a minute clinic at a Target or CVS for a strep test, or stopping at the pharmacy to pick up cough meds when you have a cold.  It would be lovely if everyone kept their masks and used them in those types of situations. 

I think doctor's offices and hospitals might do this on a wider scale than before. Maybe some workplaces.

2 hours ago, Bagels McGruffikin said:

Truthfully? I don’t expect a vaccine at the current projected efficacy rates to make a significant difference in the numbers of infections, but maybe hopefully the severity?

I think it could help with severity. The flu shot is great if it keeps you from getting the flu, but the actual goal is keeping you from dying from the flu.

Like Pen, I think they'll prioritize based on outbreaks. I think that congregate settings will also be more likely to get them (including maybe college students).

[Ali in OR]

15 minutes ago, kbutton said:

I think it could help with severity. The flu shot is great if it keeps you from getting the flu, but the actual goal is keeping you from dying from the flu.

Like Pen, I think they'll prioritize based on outbreaks. I think that congregate settings will also be more likely to get them (including maybe college students).

Yes, I think that's a big step to returning to normalcy, if a vaccine could keep people out of the hospital. That's how my doctor described my pneumonia vaccine--it won't keep me from getting pneumonia, but it will keep me out of the hospital if I get it. And I think we largely accept that with the flu vaccine--even in years when it's not as effective, we hope it's at least keeping any cases less severe. I think that's a concept we accept with pneumonia and flu, and we'll get there at some point with Covid too, imo.

[Guest]

6 hours ago, Danae said:

One thing I hope lasts is masking when you know you are likely sick but need to go out. For example, going to a minute clinic at a Target or CVS for a strep test, or stopping at the pharmacy to pick up cough meds when you have a cold.  It would be lovely if everyone kept their masks and used them in those types of situations. 

I am also hoping that it will be OK to mask when you know you are at higher risk. For example, it is working fine now for me to mask while teaching piano, and even once COVID is less of an issue, it would probably be better for my autoimmune disordered self to wear a happy mask or similar during cold and flu season. I’m also noticing that I am not getting headaches at work this year, so I’m guessing my happy mask is filtering out something that my body didn’t like-maybe something used in an art studio, or someone’s diffuser in their office, or a cleaning product. 

[BeachGal]

I think things will improve quite a bit by next spring around April. Not 100% but definitely better than now.

There are a number of vaccines in Phase 3 trials already and they're looking good enough to mitigate the more serious symptoms of Covid. However, to kick the immune response up a notch, two spaced-out doses might be recommended.

The vaccines administered as a nasal spray might lead to the best immune response but I think those are in the early phases of testing.

It's very unlikely the virus will get more lethal.

Regarding the reinfections, I read in one study that it's less than 1%. Reinfections are unusual and they're studying them. It's not considered a threat to vaccine development, though. They would not continue testing the vaccines if they thought that threat was there.

The silver lining behind all this is the tremendous advancement in research and collaborations among scientists, even across countries. Vaccine development changed dramatically in the past 5 or so years and this pandemic has just served to move it even further along. It's really quite impressive. Anti-virals and other treatments have also moved along. We will be able to apply what we've learned against other future viral infections. We really must be doing this, too. And, those in the US should insist that we be better prepared. What a circus.

The economy will likely take some time to recover. One of my sons is a quant trader and there are some very, very weird things going on that will eventually correct, probably after the election. Might be a good idea to read a variety of opinions and plan accordingly if possible.

[Excelsior! Academy]

On 8/27/2020 at 12:41 PM, Danae said:

One thing I hope lasts is masking when you know you are likely sick but need to go out. For example, going to a minute clinic at a Target or CVS for a strep test, or stopping at the pharmacy to pick up cough meds when you have a cold.  It would be lovely if everyone kept their masks and used them in those types of situations. 

 

Agreed.  

 

Once everything goes back to "normal" I hope people are able to take more sick days and are educated on when to stay home.  I can't tell you the number of times working in the church nursery or Sunday school class, Pre-Covid 19, that I've heard people mentioning how their child had a fever that morning but were given Tylenol and "their fever was down now."  Um, no.  Stay home at least 24 hours fever free!

[Pam in CT]

On August 27, 2020 at 12:34 PM, Ali in OR said:

When the vaccine is available, the first problem is that you can't vaccinate everyone at once. CDC is talking about priorities being health care workers, then other essential workers, people at high risk, and people over a certain age all before the general population. Do you think things will return more to normal after a certain amount of time, when a certain percent of the general population gets vaccinated, or when case numbers truly get down to very low numbers? I'm thinking about areas where a large percent of the population is anti-vaccine, or doesn't trust that this particular vaccine will really be safe--how does that affect when it's really safe to resume normal activity?

This is a post-and-run. I'm off to Costco but will check back later!

 

To the "when" part of the question... this is my husband's field, and he thinks it's unlikely that we will see a fully-vetted and widely-available vaccine much before back-to-school 2021.  There will likely be much larger trials before what would ordinarily be "fully vetted"; and there may well also be expanded-experimental-use exemptions before what would ordinarily be "fully vetted."  Neither of those circumstances, though, will correspond to "widely available"  ... however warranted such regulatory exceptions might be in pandemic conditions.  I am a little more optimistic than he is about the timeline -- there are just so many people working so hard on it, in so many private and public and non-profit and research capacities in so many nations! it's different than any other vaccine development race in history! -- but frankly he's far closer to the science of it, the regulatory approval process here and in other parts of the world, and the logistics of wide scale manufacture and deployment.  I'm more hopeful but he's honestly more likely to be right.

To the "how" part of the question... the larger trials thus far have leaned heavily on health care workers as trial volunteers, and I'd expect that once a vaccine is pretty-well-vetted they'd be the first cohort to get it, along with the military which is also typically first in line.  Thereafter... much depends on whose vaccine it is / who controls its manufacture and deployment.  (For example, if there's a public policy imperative to open IRL schools, then teachers might be the logical second cohort to get it; if food supply chain workers are essential, then they might logically get priority.  If OTOH the deployment is left solely to the market, then wealthier pockets better served for all other medical services will likely get earlier dibs while less profitable regions will get it later and uninsured populations might never get it at all.)

To the "normal" part of the question.... Given where we are now in response to COVID, it is very, very, very difficult to imagine anything approximating a universal mandate even if a fantastically effective vaccine with very modest side effects were to become available within the year.  Some workplaces might require it; perhaps some states might add it to the required vaccinations for public school (though even that takes a legislative cycle). Maybe. And certainly many people (myself included!) will voluntarily choose to be vaccinated if we're confident in the science of the vaccine.  But it seems to me very unlikely -- vanishingly improbable -- that that will get to ENOUGH vaccination to bring COVID under control.

Which suggests to me that even once a pretty-good vaccine is available, there still will not be a sudden switch back to the Old Normal. There just won't be enough adoption of it fast enough. It will be more like a very gradual, regionally uneven, fits-and-starts shift toward a New Normal that is still hard to glimpse.