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A friend posted on facebook about the impending hurricane (we are both in Florida) and one of her friends said she was upset because the storm might interfere with her daughter's slumber party!

Y'all....what does it take to get people to understand that a slumber party in a pandemic, in a hotspot with record deaths 4 out of the last 5 days, hospitals over capacity, is NOT OKAY??

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A friend posted on facebook about the impending hurricane (we are both in Florida) and one of her friends said she was upset because the storm might interfere with her daughter's slumber party! Y

I am sure they did decide that the fun their kid gets to have with a party is more important than my desire not to catch this virus, more important than containing spread so that schools can open safe

Here’s an idea—my ds and his friend slept outside in separate tents, roasted hotdogs and marshmallows and sat socially distanced in camp chairs, using masks at time. Our numbers are down rn and I felt

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1 minute ago, Ktgrok said:

A friend posted on facebook about the impending hurricane (we are both in Florida) and one of her friends said she was upset because the storm might interfere with her daughter's slumber party!

Y'all....what does it take to get people to understand that a slumber party in a pandemic, in a hotspot with record deaths 4 out of the last 5 days, hospitals over capacity, is NOT OKAY??

 

It will probably take their own child dying of the illness for them to understand. And then there will be a lot of wailing that they had no idea Covid was serious and "How could this have happened?!"  It's an extraordinarily high price to pay, but some people seem keen to pay it.

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I was going to say what @MissLemon said, but in an oblique way 😉 Many of the non-belivers in my life who said that this was milder than the flu and that this is fake news have started singing a different tune once the deaths and ICU admissions hit their social circle. That is what it took for them to understand what living in a pandemic means.

 

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DD has a friend that asks for a sleepover every week and talks about all the other friends are allowed. 

Of course a group that included some of my friends went out to eat for a birthday. They took off their masks and put their arms around each other for a photo.  😞

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Why does it seem like Americans won't even try?!??

When things started here Italy was already a hot spot.  That should have been an example of what we were avoiding.  Now aren't many states at higher rates than Italy?  

Ugh!!!

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4 hours ago, rebcoola said:

DD has a friend that asks for a sleepover every week and talks about all the other friends are allowed. 

😞

 

Yes, I'm the bad guy in my son's life because of this issue.  We had allowed a few sleepovers back in late May and June when the numbers were going down but now things are heating back up and I get asked every week.  It's hard.

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It's like the whole state is my ASD kid when he was young, and I would yell in frustration, "WHY do you always have to learn the HARD way?" 

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11 hours ago, rebcoola said:

DD has a friend that asks for a sleepover every week and talks about all the other friends are allowed. 

Of course a group that included some of my friends went out to eat for a birthday. They took off their masks and put their arms around each other for a photo.  😞

 

I'm getting that here too from my kids. It's frustrating, maddening, and heartbreaking all at the same time. I have a couple of friends who I have discussed COVID with in hopes of forming a quaranteam mostly for my teens, and they swear they're taking it seriously, social distancing, etc. and then they will casually mention attending a big birthday party or their kids starting up their high-risk sport. *sigh*

We're not in a current hotspot, but still, it doesn't take much to become one. 

Edited by beckyjo
decided needed a bit more privacy
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2 hours ago, Hilltopmom said:

A local summer dance program has a brochure that shows two kids with their masks pulled down to their necks hugging and smiling. That’s their front page photo!!! 
um, no thanks!

That's so frustrating!  When that happened it needed to be a teachable moment not a photo op!

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Public schools here are going full time remote in the fall, but our Catholic school is still planning to go back in person.  (Why!?!!!)  Some parents are complaining about the lack of social distancing they see from other families on Facebook.  As someone who has already decided my kids are *not* going back in person, I’m just so glad I’m not on Facebook right now.  Those pictures would be infuriating and I really just don’t want to know. 

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1 hour ago, Ktgrok said:

It's like the whole state is my ASD kid when he was young, and I would yell in frustration, "WHY do you always have to learn the HARD way?" 

It's not just your state, it's the entire country.   

I'm in a previous hotspot and people seem to have forgotten all about it already.  Our numbers are starting to climb again.

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9 minutes ago, Where's Toto? said:

It's not just your state, it's the entire country.   

I'm in a previous hotspot and people seem to have forgotten all about it already.  Our numbers are starting to climb again.

Us too.  I see another needed shutdown on the horizon.  People better not give our governor any grief.  He's been doing a great job, imo!

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I'm seeing people hosting sleepovers all the time and even worse- a sports camp was cancelled so they hosted it for the team on their own at people's homes. *facepalm* These friends are in a hotspot too. 

I am the bad guy because I've been telling my DD no way when she's asked. She was told masks could be worn the whole time but 1- I don't believe it, and 2- Masks mitigate but aren't silver bullets when you're indoors and 1 ft away for about 12 hrs! 

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DD keeps asking if she can spend the night with a friend who moved to another neighborhood and I keep telling her no. I've been a bit concerned because the mother works in a nursing home, although not directly with clients. I finally let DD spend a few hours with the friend and they spent most of the time outdoors, playing in the river, which was fine, but later I found out they had gone across the street to the neighbor's house too. I probably won't let her hang out with that friend again for awhile. It's hard. I know she's craving social time, but I have elderly parents and a newborn grandchild and it's more important to be available to them.🙁 *Sigh* This sucks.

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Here’s an idea—my ds and his friend slept outside in separate tents, roasted hotdogs and marshmallows and sat socially distanced in camp chairs, using masks at time. Our numbers are down rn and I felt it was a good way to let him have fun before the inevitable seclusion  comes in fall and winter. 

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51 minutes ago, Paige said:

 

I am the bad guy because I've been telling my DD no way when she's asked. She was told masks could be worn the whole time but 1- I don't believe it, and 2- Masks mitigate but aren't silver bullets when you're indoors and 1 ft away for about 12 hrs! 

The people that are saying things like "masks don't work" are the same people that when told an event can't happen insist "but we will wear masks!"

I have a neighbor I called out for lots of socializing (when she insisted they weren't) and her answer was "well they were wearing masks most of the time so they were safe."

Masks are not the ticket to doing whatever you want. Don't gather in groups. Social distance. When those two things aren't possible make sure you wear a mask. But the mask is not the be all and end all of preventing this thing. Oh and being outside during the day at camp doesn't make it safe. "They were only inside when sleeping and changing and break times."

Not really related to the OP but it is driving me nuts. Everyone is just justifying anything they want to do in any way they can. No one is willing to miss anything. 

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Is it possible these people who are sending their kids to play basketball, celebrate birthdays, and attend school have decided the benefits outweigh the risks? If they believe that kids rarely get it and rarely transmit it, the risk of isolating may be greater than the risk of virus exposure.

I know this is a highly unpopular take around here and I’m not interested in a back-and-forth of hyperbole and gotchas and competing links.

I’m simply suggesting that not everyone who refuses to shelter their kids right now is an ignorant fool nor a selfish monster.


 

 

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7 minutes ago, Hyacinth said:

I’m simply suggesting that not everyone who refuses to shelter their kids right now is an ignorant fool nor a selfish monster.


Part of why I don’t want to know what other families at our Church and School are doing now is because I know that even if they are making choices I disagree with they are still good people and I want to get along with them after all this is over.

 

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1 hour ago, freesia said:

Here’s an idea—my ds and his friend slept outside in separate tents, roasted hotdogs and marshmallows and sat socially distanced in camp chairs, using masks at time. Our numbers are down rn and I felt it was a good way to let him have fun before the inevitable seclusion  comes in fall and winter. 

Yeah I think that’s about the only sensible way to do it, especially with multiple families involved.

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18 minutes ago, Hyacinth said:

Is it possible these people who are sending their kids to play basketball, celebrate birthdays, and attend school have decided the benefits outweigh the risks? If they believe that kids rarely get it and rarely transmit it, the risk of isolating may be greater than the risk of virus exposure.

I know this is a highly unpopular take around here and I’m not interested in a back-and-forth of hyperbole and gotchas and competing links.

I’m simply suggesting that not everyone who refuses to shelter their kids right now is an ignorant fool nor a selfish monster.


 

 

I am sure they did decide that the fun their kid gets to have with a party is more important than my desire not to catch this virus, more important than containing spread so that schools can open safely, more important than the economic impact of the virus as it continues to spread, more important than a lot of things. 

I just disagree with that assessment. Given that we have uncontrolled spread, record deaths almost every day, hospitals past the point of overwhelm, etc in this state. No, a party is not more important than all that. 

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24 minutes ago, Hyacinth said:

Is it possible these people who are sending their kids to play basketball, celebrate birthdays, and attend school have decided the benefits outweigh the risks? If they believe that kids rarely get it and rarely transmit it, the risk of isolating may be greater than the risk of virus exposure.

I know this is a highly unpopular take around here and I’m not interested in a back-and-forth of hyperbole and gotchas and competing links.

I’m simply suggesting that not everyone who refuses to shelter their kids right now is an ignorant fool nor a selfish monster.


 

 

Good intentions doesn't trump science.  Individual risk assessment isn't just individual in a global pandemic.  I would have zero problem if all the people making those risks kept in a bubble made up of only people making those risks but they don't - they go to work and stores etc. (for good reason).  So their family choices impact everyone around them.  Even those not at the slumber party. 

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36 minutes ago, Hyacinth said:

Is it possible these people who are sending their kids to play basketball, celebrate birthdays, and attend school have decided the benefits outweigh the risks? If they believe that kids rarely get it and rarely transmit it, the risk of isolating may be greater than the risk of virus exposure.

I know this is a highly unpopular take around here and I’m not interested in a back-and-forth of hyperbole and gotchas and competing links.

I’m simply suggesting that not everyone who refuses to shelter their kids right now is an ignorant fool nor a selfish monster.


 

 

I assume it's exactly why they have chosen to do it. It still sucks for me. It makes me very sad in that it means that because I have high risk family members, I can't see my friends because they are engaging in these actions. And my kids, one of whom is truly suffering from the isolation, has had to drop their sport and can't see any of their friends.

I am not  in a hot spot though; I would have different words to say of people, rather my current heaving a long-suffering sigh when I find out, if they were doing these behaviors while the hospitals are filling and they're bringing in freezer trucks.

Edited by beckyjo
once again, needed more privacy
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1 hour ago, Hyacinth said:

Is it possible these people who are sending their kids to play basketball, celebrate birthdays, and attend school have decided the benefits outweigh the risks? If they believe that kids rarely get it and rarely transmit it, the risk of isolating may be greater than the risk of virus exposure.

I know this is a highly unpopular take around here and I’m not interested in a back-and-forth of hyperbole and gotchas and competing links.

I’m simply suggesting that not everyone who refuses to shelter their kids right now is an ignorant fool nor a selfish monster.


 

 

Is it possible that these people are living in places in the Midwest or in rural towns where the cases have not peaked yet? I live in a state that has never had a let up in infection spread and I do not see people inviting other people’s kids to sleepovers. Schools will be online, large employers will not bring workers in until 2021 and kids go biking together so as to keep large distances between themselves when they miss their friends.

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6 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

Is it possible that these people are living in places in the Midwest or in rural towns where the cases have not peaked yet? I live in a state that has never had a let up in infection spread and I do not see people inviting other people’s kids to sleepovers. Schools will be online, large employers will not bring workers in until 2021 and kids go biking together so as to keep large distances between themselves when they miss their friends.

No, it was someone in Florida. It was in a discussion of the hurricane's impact on Florida, in fact. 

Although I did just see another person posting about a sleepover a few minutes ago who is in Colorado Springs, no idea what the virus is like there. But here in Florida it is not time to be having parties. Especially indoors, overnight parties. Our health department is begging us on a daily basis to social distance, avoid confined spaces etc. 

Edited by Ktgrok
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2 hours ago, Hyacinth said:

Is it possible these people who are sending their kids to play basketball, celebrate birthdays, and attend school have decided the benefits outweigh the risks? If they believe that kids rarely get it and rarely transmit it, the risk of isolating may be greater than the risk of virus exposure.

I know this is a highly unpopular take around here and I’m not interested in a back-and-forth of hyperbole and gotchas and competing links.

I’m simply suggesting that not everyone who refuses to shelter their kids right now is an ignorant fool nor a selfish monster.


 

 


This.  One of my good friends has a toddler with a trach and vent.  He’s severely brain damaged from a birth injury.  They haven’t stopped traveling at all—Atlanta, Ocean City, etc. since the pandemic started.  Her older two kids will be going back to school full time since our local school is opening five days a week. 

I asked her and she stated that they believe the benefits of not isolating outweigh the risks, even to the baby.  She’s not uneducated at all; she has an Ed.D and understands the science, but they are not going to isolate at all.  
People have to weigh their own risk vs benefit and comfort level.  My comfort level doesn’t extend to a week at Ocean City, but our levels of Covid are nearly nonexistent here so I am comfortable going out to a restaurant or to church.  I spent today outside at my grand parent’s estate auction with over 200 people and no one socially distanced or wore masks. Everyone has to decide for themselves, but I agree it is hard on the kids to watch others doing fun things.  My kids want to know why we aren’t vacationing like their neighbor friends, especially since we don’t have family members who are high risk.  I just explain that while they’re comfortable with it, we are not at this point.

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Well in my case we did let ODD spend some time with this friend.  DD was the one that came away uncomfortable and asked me to put a ban on sleep overs etc.   This friend is currently living in apartments and it's apparently the culture to have the kids run all over and going in and out of each others apartments no distancing no  masking.  

My area is not doing well maybe we are seeing a drop since the mask mandate went into effect but it's a little early to tell. 

Edited by rebcoola
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22 minutes ago, Medicmom2.0 said:


This.  One of my good friends has a toddler with a trach and vent.  He’s severely brain damaged from a birth injury.  They haven’t stopped traveling at all—Atlanta, Ocean City, etc. since the pandemic started.  Her older two kids will be going back to school full time since our local school is opening five days a week. 

I asked her and she stated that they believe the benefits of not isolating outweigh the risks, even to the baby.  She’s not uneducated at all; she has an Ed.D and understands the science, but they are not going to isolate at all.  
People have to weigh their own risk vs benefit and comfort level.  My comfort level doesn’t extend to a week at Ocean City, but our levels of Covid are nearly nonexistent here so I am comfortable going out to a restaurant or to church.  I spent today outside at my grand parent’s estate auction with over 200 people and no one socially distanced or wore masks. Everyone has to decide for themselves, but I agree it is hard on the kids to watch others doing fun things.  My kids want to know why we aren’t vacationing like their neighbor friends, especially since we don’t have family members who are high risk.  I just explain that while they’re comfortable with it, we are not at this point.


Which would be fine if they weren't possibly spreading it everyplace they go.  It's not a personal risk assessment - it's making a public health decision for everyone.

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6 minutes ago, Amy in NH said:


Which would be fine if they weren't possibly spreading it everyplace they go.  It's not a personal risk assessment - it's making a public health decision for everyone.


Yes, but I think it’s a very hard sell in areas like mine where Covid never really hit.  It hasn’t affected people here personally so most people think the risk is very low.

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7 minutes ago, Medicmom2.0 said:


Yes, but I think it’s a very hard sell in areas like mine where Covid never really hit.  It hasn’t affected people here personally so most people think the risk is very low.

Well, in the OP I was referring to a party in Florida, which is definitely hard hit. 

So yeah, people going to parties or having parties here is spreading the virus, which means even for those that don't catch it, life is a lot harder a lot longer. 

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1 minute ago, Ktgrok said:

Well, in the OP I was referring to a party in Florida, which is definitely hard hit. 

So yeah, people going to parties or having parties here is spreading the virus, which means even for those that don't catch it, life is a lot harder a lot longer. 


When I was in Florida in early June I couldn’t believe how open everything was—nothing was open in NY yet.  Nobody seemed to mask in public and in my sister’s cul-de-sac all the neighbors were congregating together regularly, and I saw that everywhere we went.   It didn’t surprise me at all that it became the next hotspot. 

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6 minutes ago, Medicmom2.0 said:


When I was in Florida in early June I couldn’t believe how open everything was—nothing was open in NY yet.  Nobody seemed to mask in public and in my sister’s cul-de-sac all the neighbors were congregating together regularly, and I saw that everywhere we went.   It didn’t surprise me at all that it became the next hotspot. 

Yup, all the neighbors have been congregating together since it started. I'm the odd one out. We do have a mask mandate now, finally, for about a month, but only in stores, etc not in peopl's homes. And doesnt' apply to people eating or drinking, so no one is masked in restaurants, etc. Gyms are open. It's banana pants. 

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3 hours ago, Hyacinth said:

Is it possible these people who are sending their kids to play basketball, celebrate birthdays, and attend school have decided the benefits outweigh the risks? If they believe that kids rarely get it and rarely transmit it, the risk of isolating may be greater than the risk of virus exposure.

I know this is a highly unpopular take around here and I’m not interested in a back-and-forth of hyperbole and gotchas and competing links.

I’m simply suggesting that not everyone who refuses to shelter their kids right now is an ignorant fool nor a selfish monster.


 

 

 

Absolutely!  It is possible. And very likely.  Not everyone is blind to risks or casual in decisions- they are weighing their options.  it IS a profoundly unpopular opinion here on WTM to do much beyond hunker down and get your Amazon stuff delivered. 

I agree with the head of the CDC and Bill Gates and several other prominent voices who have recently said it is the interest of public health to open schools.  Statements like that sure seems to be about more than the science of how a virus spreads and takes many factors into consideration.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/cdc-warns-congress-of-significant-public-health-consequences-if-schools-dont-reopen-in-the-fall.html

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30 minutes ago, Amy in NH said:


Which would be fine if they weren't possibly spreading it everyplace they go.  It's not a personal risk assessment - it's making a public health decision for everyone.

I think a lot comes down to "possibly" spreading it.  Someone's decisions are very different if they think it is possible--but highly unlikely versus if they think it is possible--probable and highly likely.  

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6 minutes ago, LarlaB said:

 

Absolutely!  It is possible. And very likely.  Not everyone is blind to risks or casual in decisions- they are weighing their options.  it IS a profoundly unpopular opinion here on WTM to do much beyond hunker down and get your Amazon stuff delivered. 

I agree with the head of the CDC and Bill Gates and several other prominent voices who have recently said it is the interest of public health to open schools.  Statements like that sure seems to be about more than the science of how a virus spreads and takes many factors into consideration.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/31/cdc-warns-congress-of-significant-public-health-consequences-if-schools-dont-reopen-in-the-fall.html

Do you not see a difference between schools and parties? 

1 minute ago, Bootsie said:

I think a lot comes down to "possibly" spreading it.  Someone's decisions are very different if they think it is possible--but highly unlikely versus if they think it is possible--probable and highly likely.  

Well, either a whole heck of a lot of people think it is very probably they will spread it and are going out and about anyway, or people are really bad at estimating the risk. Because it IS spreading. Our cases increased 10 times what they were. So I'm not sure if it is people knowingly spreading it or people just not realizing they could be spreading it, but the end result is the same - parties and such spread the virus. The more the virus spreads, the less likely things people want, like in person school, etc, are to happen. The more the virus spreads, the longer high risk people are isolated. the more the virus spreads, the more people die. 

So yeah, I think it is pretty clear that people living in a hot spot should look at four days in a row of record deaths and NOT have people over to socialize indoors for hours on end. If this keeps up my husband and a lot of others will lose their jobs. So people can have slumber parties and barbecues and what not. 

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1 minute ago, Ktgrok said:

Do you not see a difference between schools and parties? 

Well, either a whole heck of a lot of people think it is very probably they will spread it and are going out and about anyway, or people are really bad at estimating the risk. Because it IS spreading. Our cases increased 10 times what they were. So I'm not sure if it is people knowingly spreading it or people just not realizing they could be spreading it, but the end result is the same - parties and such spread the virus. The more the virus spreads, the less likely things people want, like in person school, etc, are to happen. The more the virus spreads, the longer high risk people are isolated. the more the virus spreads, the more people die. 

So yeah, I think it is pretty clear that people living in a hot spot should look at four days in a row of record deaths and NOT have people over to socialize indoors for hours on end. If this keeps up my husband and a lot of others will lose their jobs. So people can have slumber parties and barbecues and what not. 

Are people bad at estimating the risk?  Just because it is spreading, I am not sure how you can draw that conclusion.  If there are an equal number of people walking around in Florida who are positive but do not know it as there are active, documented cases (which hopefully those people are not walking around) there would be about a 2% chance that a random person is positive.  If there is a 2% chance that I am one of those individuals, and I, on average would infect one or two other people, if I come in contact with 100 people, what is the probability of my infecting a particular person?  

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Perhaps the families have been quarantining specifically to allow their kids to have a fun party. I know 4 families doing this now.  Or perhaps the families feel that the risk to their kids mental health is higher than the risk of becoming seriously ill with COVID. I recently saw a number that said the suicide rate has more than doubled in my area in the last 2 months. For some it makes more sense to take the risk and be social to help with depression. 

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6 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Do you not see a difference between schools and parties? 

Well, either a whole heck of a lot of people think it is very probably they will spread it and are going out and about anyway, or people are really bad at estimating the risk. Because it IS spreading. Our cases increased 10 times what they were. So I'm not sure if it is people knowingly spreading it or people just not realizing they could be spreading it, but the end result is the same - parties and such spread the virus. The more the virus spreads, the less likely things people want, like in person school, etc, are to happen. The more the virus spreads, the longer high risk people are isolated. the more the virus spreads, the more people die. 

So yeah, I think it is pretty clear that people living in a hot spot should look at four days in a row of record deaths and NOT have people over to socialize indoors for hours on end. If this keeps up my husband and a lot of others will lose their jobs. So people can have slumber parties and barbecues and what not. 


Can you see there is a continuum of how others might view the same information and come to a conclusion different than your own? 

We already lost our small business back in March due to COVID shutdowns.  That was 4 months ago and 70% of our income.  My husband now delivers Amazon packages so everyone can stay !hunkered down! and !safe at home!    I deeply hope your DH doesn’t lose his job, but I personally wouldn’t blame it on people not wearing masks and making different life choices.  You are drawing somewhat wild conclusions. 

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I looked out of my living room window an hour ago and saw a lot of cars coming into my street.Turns out my neighbor 2 houses up who is a realtor is having a baby shower.16 cars in all.She was texting me a few days ago how some Etsy order for a gender reveal party never came and she was wondering if I saw the Usps guy that particular morning.I found out then that she was pregnant and was upset her entire plan for a party was ruined because of this virus.I have been seeing her selling homes and posting of fb with no masks on at all!Now this-we know its her party because there are balloons in front of her house and saw people go in! Only one or two guests even wore masks!No its not an outdoor party we are not seeing anyone outside.We are in Dallas and the numbers have been rapidly increasing.I feel horrible esp because my ds is immune compromised and people like this do not care to be safe nor keep others safe! 

 

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30 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

  If there is a 2% chance that I am one of those individuals, and I, on average would infect one or two other people, if I come in contact with 100 people, what is the probability of my infecting a particular person?  

Why do you think that if you are positive, and you interact with 100 people, you'd only infect on or two of them? 

Also whatever the theoretical risk, the ACTUAL fact is that it is spreading like wildfire. So yeah, something people are doing is driving that. Either purposely spreading, or spreading accidentally. But they ARE going out and spreading it, or having people over and spreading it. The way to stop that is to not do those things. 

29 minutes ago, Shellydon said:

Perhaps the families have been quarantining specifically to allow their kids to have a fun party. I know 4 families doing this now.  Or perhaps the families feel that the risk to their kids mental health is higher than the risk of becoming seriously ill with COVID. I recently saw a number that said the suicide rate has more than doubled in my area in the last 2 months. For some it makes more sense to take the risk and be social to help with depression. 

You can socialize without having an indoor party for 10 hours. 

28 minutes ago, LarlaB said:


Can you see there is a continuum of how others might view the same information and come to a conclusion different than your own? 

We already lost our small business back in March due to COVID shutdowns.  That was 4 months ago and 70% of our income.  My husband now delivers Amazon packages so everyone can stay !hunkered down! and !safe at home!    I deeply hope your DH doesn’t lose his job, but I personally wouldn’t blame it on people not wearing masks and making different life choices.  You are drawing somewhat wild conclusions. 

I can see that people DO come to a different conclusion, and because of that we have hospitals overrun, etc. 

And I do wonder, what WOULD you blame it on, if not people avoiding masks and not following the guidelines from the department of health? 

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What I’m comfortable with has shifted quite a bit from when this started and I do think many of these kids need time together.

My college kiddo just left for a party because his college roomie is turning 20. He said it will be a small gathering but they’re all staying the night. It’s something they haven’t all done since high school. I could be a stickler and tell him after the party he has to go an hour away back to his college apartment, but I’m not going to because I’m OK with the risk. And I think it’s safer for all of them to get together locally instead of doing that drive. He won’t be getting together with anyone other than these friends after anyway and the rest of us are still pretty hunkered down. My mom finally doesn’t need me to drive her or come inside anymore so I don’t have that worry either.

Maybe this friends group has prepared by isolating and will isolate after or they at least keep outings to a minimum?

IDK, I don’t think any of its easy. I’ve been upset large parties I’ve seen for sure but I’ve definitely shifted my perspective on small friends gatherings. And for the record, my dc isn’t violating our state health guidelines with his party tonight because it will definitely be less than 50 people (probably less than 10).

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14 minutes ago, Joker said:

And for the record, my dc isn’t violating our state health guidelines with his party tonight because it will definitely be less than 50 people (probably less than 10).

Our health department doesn't want us in confined spaces or having close contact/conversations with others. So, yeah, this violates that. 

If everyone is having "small" parties all over the state, we will never get this under control here. 

 

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7 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

E Our health department doesn't want us in confined spaces or having close contact/conversations with others. So, yeah, this violates that. 

If everyone is having "small" parties all over the state, we will never get this under control here. 

 


I do think things are much, much different in hotspot areas like Florida and Texas.  I don’t know where Joker lives but if they’re allowing up to 50 people, it’s probably not a hotspot. Small gatherings are happening all over the place here.   I’d feel very, very different if I lived in Florida...though my sister in Tampa is still putting up pictures on FB of them doing all kinds of things with neighbors, so maybe it’s a whole different attitude down there. 

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46 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Why do you think that if you are positive, and you interact with 100 people, you'd only infect on or two of them? 

Also whatever the theoretical risk, the ACTUAL fact is that it is spreading like wildfire. So yeah, something people are doing is driving that. Either purposely spreading, or spreading accidentally. But they ARE going out and spreading it, or having people over and spreading it. The way to stop that is to not do those things. 

You can socialize without having an indoor party for 10 hours. 

I can see that people DO come to a different conclusion, and because of that we have hospitals overrun, etc. 

And I do wonder, what WOULD you blame it on, if not people avoiding masks and not following the guidelines from the department of health? 

If a disease has an R0 of 2, then I would, on average, only infect two other people if I were positive.  Of course, the more people I am around, the longer that I am around them, and the closer contact I have with them, the more people I would infect.  But, on average, one infected person is not infecting lots of other people.  

I know that it is an ACTUAL fact that it is spreading, but that is separate from the risk that any one behavior, action, or person is infectious or will become infected.   The ACTUAL fact that it is low probability than any given person is infected AND it is low probability that that a given infected person will spread the virus to another person they encounter, is not at odds with the virus spreading.  Both can be true at the same time. 

I WOULD blame the virus spreading on the virus.  

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3 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

 

I WOULD blame the virus spreading on the virus.  

But the virus needs PEOPLE to spread. It can't do it on its own. Given what you are saying, everyone should just go about their lives as normal, have parties, socialize, etc and then shrug their shoulders when it brings society to its knees??

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"On average" is a key concept because some people will stay home and not spread it.  So there are people infecting a lot of people...and they infect more and so on. 

From Bootsie:" If a disease has an R0 of 2, then I would, on average, only infect two other people if I were positive." 

R0 of 2 means each case creates 2 more and *then* those each create 2 more etc.  There is no "only" about this.  That multiplies quickly.

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5 hours ago, Hyacinth said:

Is it possible these people who are sending their kids to play basketball, celebrate birthdays, and attend school have decided the benefits outweigh the risks? If they believe that kids rarely get it and rarely transmit it, the risk of isolating may be greater than the risk of virus exposure.

I know this is a highly unpopular take around here and I’m not interested in a back-and-forth of hyperbole and gotchas and competing links.

I’m simply suggesting that not everyone who refuses to shelter their kids right now is an ignorant fool nor a selfish monster.


 

 

Yep! Thank you for sharing another way people see things.

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Just now, Ktgrok said:

But the virus needs PEOPLE to spread. It can't do it on its own. Given what you are saying, everyone should just go about their lives as normal, have parties, socialize, etc and then shrug their shoulders when it brings society to its knees??

No, I did not saying anything about what people should do.  I was simply talking about measurement of risk and why some people may come to a different conclusion about participating in certain activities than you or I come to.  I don't think it is necessarily that they are misunderstanding the statistical chance that they are infected and will infect someone else.  

It seems logically inconsistent to say "it isn't the government, people, school board, etc--its the virus" when people complain about decisions people are making about churches, business, schools being closed but say "It's people and their decisions, not the virus" when there is spread.  

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5 minutes ago, happi duck said:

"On average" is a key concept because some people will stay home and not spread it.  So there are people infecting a lot of people...and they infect more and so on. 

From Bootsie:" If a disease has an R0 of 2, then I would, on average, only infect two other people if I were positive." 

R0 of 2 means each case creates 2 more and *then* those each create 2 more etc.  There is no "only" about this.  That multiplies quickly.

Yes, the infection does not stop at one round, but many estimates of R0 at this point for COVID are under 2.

So, if 100 people are infected in Round 1, and there is an R0 of 2, then 200 people would be infected in Round 2.  If 50 of the initial 100 stay home and don't spread the virus at all, then the remaining 50 people would have to each infect 4 people to get to 200.  While the spread is not good and is undesirable, the probability of each individual transmission is statistically low.  Since family members tend to infect those within their households, the chances of those staying home not spreading it and having an R0 of zero for that group is highly unlikely.  

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So are people actually trying to say that it is okay to have parties in a hot spot, and that it has zero effect on the transmission of the virus? Like, how do y'all think it is spreading,  if not via people?

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