NY's Quarantine for Visitors From Certain States

[JumpyTheFrog]

A relative was planning to take his family to visit both sets of grandparents in (upstate) New York this weekend. In order to reduce the chance of catching coronavirus and bringing it with them, they had gone back to more self-isolation for about ten days before the planned departure date. Now New York has announced that visitors from his state have to quarantine for 14 days, and he's trying to decide whether to go on the trip. He thinks the police will be likely to target out-of-state plates when pulling people over. I tried to find out what exactly "mandatory quarantine" looks, which is what I believe visitors are put into if they are caught. Based on some documents on the state's health department's website from April, it sounds like it involves not leaving the property for 14 days and receiving visits or phone calls at random times every day to ensure compliance. There were also rules about how the setup of the location as far as rooms and bathrooms or else being placed in quarantine elsewhere. (I didn't fully understand all the rules, because I was in a bit of a hurry, but it looks like they want each quarantined person to have their own bathroom.)

[EmseB]

I can't decide if this is funny or just ironically pathetic. NYers of means were fine with seeding the country when the outbreak was bad in NYC.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/16/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-moving-leaving.html

[Hyacinth]

I can’t imagine they’ll be checking up on anyone. I read it as a “request” rather than an enforceable mandate. I’ll need to read up on it as we have a trip planned to visit my mom soon and we’re coming from a “spiking” state. 
 

[MEmama]

Maine has had the same requirement in place for at least a couple of months., although the governor recently announced that visitors can opt instead to prove they have tested negative within 72 hours of coming into the state.

Idk how enforceable it is, but I certainly hope people abide by local laws and mandates. Responsible adults shouldn’t require the threat of law enforcement to do the right thing. 

[Corraleno]

2 hours ago, EmseB said:

I can't decide if this is funny or just ironically pathetic. NYers of means were fine with seeding the country when the outbreak was bad in NYC.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/05/16/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-moving-leaving.html

 

28 minutes ago, kdsuomi said:

And insulting states that were instituting quarantines on those from these very same states...

You guys realize that Florida has had the exact same quarantine requirement for travelers coming from the tri-state area (NY/NJ/CT) to Florida for the last three months, which is still in effect until July 7th, right?

So why do you think it's "pathetic" or "insulting" that the tri-state area has imposed the same quarantine requirement in reverse, now that FL is experiencing a massive spike in cases?

[Bambam]

NY case/1M population (from Worldometer)  is 21,248

Visitors from these States they are asking to quarantine: (their cases/1M population)

 Alabama - 6,539

Arkansas - 5,757

Arizona - 8,240

Florida - 5,076

North Carolina - 5,430

South Carolina - 5,418

Washington - 4,036

Utah - 5,859

Texas - 4,524

Of course, these states are growing, but still no where near as bad as NY. 

[Corraleno]

3 hours ago, Bambam said:

Of course, these states are growing, but still no where near as bad as NY. 

The new case rates in those states are VASTLY higher than NY & NJ:

 

 

Edited June 25, 2020 by Corraleno
Edited to update with today's figures for FL & TX, which are far worse than yesterday's

[JustEm]

2 minutes ago, Medicmom2.0 said:

I very seriously doubt the cops are pulling over people with specific license plates.

 

Well they did in Delaware so I don't think it is unreasonable to assume they'll do it in NY

Edited June 25, 2020 by hjffkj

[Bambam]

I'm curious  "New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo, New Jersey Gov. Phil Murphy and Connecticut Gov. Ned Lamont said the travel advisory applies to anyone coming from a state with a positive test rate higher than 10 per 100,000 residents over a 7-day rolling average or a state with a 10% or higher positivity rate over a 7-day rolling average."
from https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/us/new-york-coronavirus-travel-restriction/index.html

So what if one of those listed states has a positivity rate less than 10% for a day or two coupled with a positive test rate higher than 10/100,000 residents? Does that mean those folks who were currently in quarantine could get out early? And that new travelers wouldn't have to quarantine? What is the end point? 

[EmseB]

1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

 

You guys realize that Florida has had the exact same quarantine requirement for travelers coming from the tri-state area (NY/NJ/CT) to Florida for the last three months, which is still in effect until July 7th, right?

So why do you think it's "pathetic" or "insulting" that the tri-state area has imposed the same quarantine requirement in reverse, now that FL is experiencing a massive spike in cases?

How many NYers went to Florida anyway when things were bad in NY? Did they all quarantine as requested? No one brought covid with them to these states now struggling? We'll never know, I guess. I have been listening to NPR all evening talk about how great NY is doing like they didn't mismanage the whole thing and kill a ton of old people and no mention of deaths per capita or Chris Cuomo sauntering around the Hamptons while on quarantine and now it's like they have some nerve to be telling people from other states they don't want them there because they are doing so well. It's just one big massive eye roll, and I'm someone who would just prefer everyone stay in their own home, not to mention their own state.

[Sneezyone]

4 hours ago, JumpyTheFrog said:

A relative was planning to take his family to visit both sets of grandparents in (upstate) New York this weekend. In order to reduce the chance of catching coronavirus and bringing it with them, they had gone back to more self-isolation for about ten days before the planned departure date. Now New York has announced that visitors from his state have to quarantine for 14 days, and he's trying to decide whether to go on the trip. He thinks the police will be likely to target out-of-state plates when pulling people over. I tried to find out what exactly "mandatory quarantine" looks, which is what I believe visitors are put into if they are caught. Based on some documents on the state's health department's website from April, it sounds like it involves not leaving the property for 14 days and receiving visits or phone calls at random times every day to ensure compliance. There were also rules about how the setup of the location as far as rooms and bathrooms or else being placed in quarantine elsewhere. (I didn't fully understand all the rules, because I was in a bit of a hurry, but it looks like they want each quarantined person to have their own bathroom.)

 

I imagine the quarantine would have to be restarted if there are trips along the way that include contacts with people outside the family/car (vs. an RV). They could all quarantine together in a hotel or the basement of a relative's house, etc. Hawaii has required this for months now.

Edited June 25, 2020 by Sneezyone

[Corraleno]

12 minutes ago, EmseB said:

How many NYers went to Florida anyway when things were bad in NY? Did they all quarantine as requested? No one brought covid with them to these states now struggling? We'll never know, I guess. I have been listening to NPR all evening talk about how great NY is doing like they didn't mismanage the whole thing and kill a ton of old people and no mention of deaths per capita or Chris Cuomo sauntering around the Hamptons while on quarantine and now it's like they have some nerve to be telling people from other states they don't want them there because they are doing so well. It's just one big massive eye roll, and I'm someone who would just prefer everyone stay in their own home, not to mention their own state.

The FL governor decreed (way back in MARCH, and still in effect) that anyone coming from NY/NJ/CT had to quarantine for 14 days after they arrived in FL.

The governors of NY, NJ, and CT have now decreed that anyone coming from FL (and a few other states) must quarantine for 14 days after they arrive.

Why is the first one reasonable but the second one is ridiculous and "eyeroll" worthy?

Did some New Yorkers go to FL and not quarantine? Probably. Will some Floridians go to NY and not quarantine? Probably. But since when does "some people may not follow the rules" mean that having rules is pointless?

[Bambam]

33 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh, come on, what is the point of nitpicking?? The idea is that NY's current positive test rate is 1%, and we don't want it any higher. Whatever line in the sand you draw about which states qualify, there are going to be absurd corner cases. 

I don't understand why people think this is ridiculous. I don't actually remember Cuomo complaining about quarantine requirements from other states -- what he didn't like was people actually turning away travelers from NY (which Rhode Island was doing at some point -- they set up state troopers on the highways, and tried to turn away people with NY license plates.) 

This is a good idea. People should honestly generically quarantine after traveling, but especially if they are traveling from hot spots. That's common sense. 

I'm not nitpicking. It's an honest question. Let's just say Alabama turns a corner and their positivity rate goes down to 5% and stays there for 3 weeks. Will NY still be applying the quarantine rule? If you are going to make rules about states based on their stats, you need to figure out exactly how you are going to stop the implementation. Or is it to continue forever? 

And I'm not headed to NY or any other northeast state, but I am in TX and headed to another state to help a relative. So, this has the potential to impact me and I just am curious how the 'end of quarantine' orders would apply.

Not to mention my little part of Texas is not growing rapidly at all. Sad that our little rural area is being lumped in with the big metroplexes which are the ones experiencing a lot of growth. 

[Sneezyone]

8 minutes ago, Bambam said:

I'm not nitpicking. It's an honest question. Let's just say Alabama turns a corner and their positivity rate goes down to 5% and stays there for 3 weeks. Will NY still be applying the quarantine rule? If you are going to make rules about states based on their stats, you need to figure out exactly how you are going to stop the implementation. Or is it to continue forever? 

And I'm not headed to NY or any other northeast state, but I am in TX and headed to another state to help a relative. So, this has the potential to impact me and I just am curious how the 'end of quarantine' orders would apply.

Not to mention my little part of Texas is not growing rapidly at all. Sad that our little rural area is being lumped in with the big metroplexes which are the ones experiencing a lot of growth. 

 

The governor announced, TODAY, that this was based on a 7 day rolling average of cases. He was clear in the news conference that states could be added as the situation worsens in other states. One presumes states can also be removed because the criteria is the # per 100K residents. 

Edited June 25, 2020 by Sneezyone

[Bambam]

11 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I assume they'll take states off the list once they aren't experiencing high rates. They said they'll post new lists every day. 

If Texas doesn't slow down the spread, it'll probably be spreading everywhere soon enough, including the rural areas :-/. Especially since people have a tendency to run away from places with high rates of cases and go somewhere doesn't have a problem... 

I didn't see the part of new lists every day. That answers the question! 

I don't have much hopes of Texas slowing the spread - at least at first. We have so many sticking their heads in the sand here and most think Texas is the best place in the world, so they won't go anywhere that is not Texas. I could well be wrong though. I'd hope people would just hunker down here, but ...

I feel bad I'm leaving right now, but I have to go help as there is no one else. At least my area is not experiencing rapid increases. 

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Oh, come on, what is the point of nitpicking?? The idea is that NY's current positive test rate is 1%, and we don't want it any higher. Whatever line in the sand you draw about which states qualify, there are going to be absurd corner cases. 

I don't understand why people think this is ridiculous. I don't actually remember Cuomo complaining about quarantine requirements from other states -- what he didn't like was people actually turning away travelers from NY (which Rhode Island was doing at some point -- they set up state troopers on the highways, and tried to turn away people with NY license plates.) 

This is a good idea. People should honestly generically quarantine after traveling, but especially if they are traveling from hot spots. That's common sense. 

Seriously , what is eyeroll worthy about trying to contain spread? 

1 hour ago, EmseB said:

How many NYers went to Florida anyway when things were bad in NY? Did they all quarantine as requested? No one brought covid with them to these states now struggling? We'll never know, I guess. 

And if they did, we should return fire and infect a bunch of new yorkers to make it even??? Or??? It was a good idea for people from NY to quarantine when they got here, and it is a good idea for people going there now to do so. 

44 minutes ago, Bambam said:

Not to mention my little part of Texas is not growing rapidly at all. Sad that our little rural area is being lumped in with the big metroplexes which are the ones experiencing a lot of growth. 

I have no idea if you are driving or flying, but eithe rway, I'd expect you'd be exposed to people from other areas of the state before getting to another state. Which is likely part of what they are thinking of. 

[madteaparty]

1 hour ago, Dotwithaperiod said:

I’m guessing you don’t watch a lot of Fox or OAN news....it’s been “breaking news” for months about bossy Cuomo killing tons of old people. Get with the program, Square!

Honestly, I do not like the guy. I do think, tho, that he likes old people. He adores his mother. I honestly think he regrets the decision to move those ill patients into the nursing homes. I know those that hate him won’t ever let him forget it, but I think the state learned from this tragedy. 

Right? I can’t wait to get back to normal so I can get back to hating on Cuomo again. What phase is that, already. 

[Wheres Toto]

3 hours ago, EmseB said:

How many NYers went to Florida anyway when things were bad in NY? Did they all quarantine as requested? No one brought covid with them to these states now struggling? We'll never know, I guess. I have been listening to NPR all evening talk about how great NY is doing like they didn't mismanage the whole thing and kill a ton of old people and no mention of deaths per capita or Chris Cuomo sauntering around the Hamptons while on quarantine and now it's like they have some nerve to be telling people from other states they don't want them there because they are doing so well. It's just one big massive eye roll, and I'm someone who would just prefer everyone stay in their own home, not to mention their own state.

I know a TON of people that wanted to go to Florida for Spring Break trips.   It came up constantly on local social media.   And the vast VAST majority cancelled their trips, many due to the quarantines.  Anyone who suggested bypassing the quarantine was pretty much stomped all over and told to stay home if they couldn't abide by the rules.  Not to say there weren't still people who did it, but the majority of locals seemed to respect the quarantine rules and expect people to abide by them.  

I do have a question for anyone about the nursing home thing.  If people who lived in nursing homes, as in that was their HOME and they were unable to be taken care of in a family home, were sick in the hospital but were no longer sick enough to justify staying in the hospital, especially when beds were at a premium, where should they have gone?   What kind of facilities do other states have set up for that situation?  

[EmseB]

1 hour ago, Dotwithaperiod said:

Cuomo has over 80% approval rating from people across NY, which is pretty darn impressive. The guy has taken responsibility for EVERYTHING, the buck stops with him, he’s admitted what he got wrong. Massive eye roll all y’all want, I haven’t seen ANY other leader take responsibility that way. In fact, one certain person said “ I don’t take responsibility at all.” If you aren’t aware, other states have had the same directives towards NY travelers. And Chris Cuomo can saunter in his underwear all across the state while tossing bon-bons to his fans, because he’s not the governor and has zero to do with law making in NY. Good grief.

Which is baffling to me, honestly, the approval ratings. When other governors end up with the same amount of deaths per 100k, I doubt anyone will be singing their praises. I admit that I haven't looked at the numbers in some time, so maybe some other state has passed NY. Taking responsibility doesn't mean that much because it's easy to say after the fact. I heard him blame other people multiple times because no one told him the virus could possibly be in Europe??? Maybe I'm conflating the governor with nyc's mayor, but both of them aside, Mark Levine is his own special case and he's the city council's public health person? 

The only reason I know all of NY's issues is because the media is primarily based there and if I listen to NPR and read Twitter, it is pretty saturated with coverage.

Chris has had his brother on his show multiple times to do their cute little shtick, and they are both honestly insufferable.

Yes, I am aware states had restrictions for NYers, and NYers summarily ignored them during the height of the pandemic. Did you see the linked article? We're all in this together unless you have the means, in which case, head to Florida while your city is spiking!

I don't know how any of this is defensible but I dont mean anything personal to NY boardies. I just do not get loving Cuomo or thinking he did a good job. He mismanaged nursing homes, made social distancing in subways impossible, didn't require masking on them or institute extensive cleaning until May. People were jumping on Florida's beaches, on our beaches, while we saw pictures of people packed on subways with no masks, not even extra cars for more space. This is a huge contrast when watching from the outside.

This isn't political. I am not a trump voter or a republican. I don't watch fox news, I am barely familiar withwhat oan even is. I disagree with my governor on almost anything, but I think he has handled this 100 times better than Cuomo. But if y'all think he did a good job and love him, it doesn't really bother me, it's just puzzling.

[EmseB]

16 minutes ago, Where's Toto? said:

I know a TON of people that wanted to go to Florida for Spring Break trips.   It came up constantly on local social media.   And the vast VAST majority cancelled their trips, many due to the quarantines.  Anyone who suggested bypassing the quarantine was pretty much stomped all over and told to stay home if they couldn't abide by the rules.  Not to say there weren't still people who did it, but the majority of locals seemed to respect the quarantine rules and expect people to abide by them.  

I do have a question for anyone about the nursing home thing.  If people who lived in nursing homes, as in that was their HOME and they were unable to be taken care of in a family home, were sick in the hospital but were no longer sick enough to justify staying in the hospital, especially when beds were at a premium, where should they have gone?   What kind of facilities do other states have set up for that situation?  

NYC had field hospitals that were barely used. There were only five states, afaik, that have ordered covid+ people into long term care facilities. There are other solutions rather than putting covid positive people in a locked down facility with a ton of high risk people. I don't even know why that would be considered, much less ordered, to be honest. Yes, it's their home. Freaking prisoners were released from their "home" because of this exact concern, but the elderly couldn't live somewhere else?

[EmseB]

2 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

Seriously , what is eyeroll worthy about trying to contain spread? 

And if they did, we should return fire and infect a bunch of new yorkers to make it even???

Yes, I was rolling my eyes at New York trying to contain the spread and wanting people to infect New Yorkers. Those were the two main points of my post. You got me. I've been staying home for three months, but that's what I really want is more covid in NY.

[EmseB]

3 hours ago, square_25 said:

Also, NY's rate of nursing home deaths is actually quite low in the Northeast (assuming you believe the numbers -- I'm going to wait for clearer numbers, frankly.) It's not at all clear that its policies actually "killed a ton of old people."

Square, NY was not counting nursing home deaths the same as every other state. As in, they weren't counting people who got sick in nursing homes if they died in a hospital as nursing home deaths and other states were. This made their numbers look relatively low.

And maybe there are no effective policies, but I'm pretty sure putting a person with covid in the facility on purpose is what I would consider ineffective at best. I know nothing about nursing homes but I can think of at least two or three other options off the top of my head before ordering that as a governor.

[EmseB]

4 hours ago, square_25 said:

I'm sure NY'ers did go to Florida, and they shouldn't have!! What is it with this "two wrongs make a right" philosophy? And no one said people can't come here... they said that people should quarantine, to make sure they don't have the virus. 

NY is doing great right now. You want it to be doing less well? You want people to spread it all over here, as if we didn't have enough suffering here, with 30,000 deaths?? 

Nope, not the point of my post. The point is that after 30k deaths and people leaving during the peak of that, maybe acting like people from other states are a problem is not well received. Perhaps NY may have a problem with people coming there, and hopefully they quarantine when they return to their homes. But I don’t think a lot of us are itching to go on a NYC vacation or something.

[Carrie12345]

PA was asking visitors to self-quarantine for 2 weeks for ages. In this tourist area, it didn’t appear to be happening, but it was the order. I don’t think it’s still in place, what with our touristy places opening back up. My county’s cases tripled per day this week. We had been doing so well!

”You can’t catch everyone” is pretty irrelevant. You can’t catch ever speeder or even every murderer, but we still have speed limits and laws.

[ktgrok]

6 hours ago, EmseB said:

Freaking prisoners were released from their "home" because of this exact concern, but the elderly couldn't live somewhere else?

Where?

6 hours ago, EmseB said:

Yes, I was rolling my eyes at New York trying to contain the spread and wanting people to infect New Yorkers. Those were the two main points of my post. You got me. I've been staying home for three months, but that's what I really want is more covid in NY.

Well if that wasn't your point, you might want to try stating it again, because that is how it is coming across. That they somehow don't deserve to try to limit people from high risk areas coming to their state, because of either how many cases they had before, or because some entitled jerks ignored other states' curfews, or...something? Seriously, that seems to be what you are saying. That they have no right to quarantine people coming in now, when they have cases contained mostly, because of ...reasons?

6 hours ago, EmseB said:

The point is that after 30k deaths and people leaving during the peak of that, maybe acting like people from other states are a problem is not well received. 

Yeah, see, this sounds like what I said above. That since thy had it so bad before and some people left, they don't deserve to try to limit new spread now. 

[historically accurate]

34 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Where?

 

Illinois released many prisoners due to Covid concerns. It's been very controversial. https://www.14news.com/2020/03/31/watch-live-il-gov-pritzker-giving-tuesday-update/

And now there is a racism angle as well. Apparently, Illinois released white prisoners at disproportionately higher rates. https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/illinois-released-white-inmates-at-higher-rates-in-coronavirus-pandemic/2294042/

[ktgrok]

4 minutes ago, beckyjo said:

Illinois released many prisoners due to Covid concerns. It's been very controversial. https://www.14news.com/2020/03/31/watch-live-il-gov-pritzker-giving-tuesday-update/

And now there is a racism angle as well. Apparently, Illinois released white prisoners at disproportionately higher rates. https://www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/illinois-released-white-inmates-at-higher-rates-in-coronavirus-pandemic/2294042/

No, I meant where should they have put ill elderly people. 

[historically accurate]

4 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

No, I meant where should they have put ill elderly people. 

Ah, gotcha. I don't know the answer to that one. One of many reasons I am happy I have no power beyond my family during this time.

[Wheres Toto]

7 hours ago, EmseB said:

Square, NY was not counting nursing home deaths the same as every other state. As in, they weren't counting people who got sick in nursing homes if they died in a hospital as nursing home deaths and other states were. This made their numbers look relatively low.

And maybe there are no effective policies, but I'm pretty sure putting a person with covid in the facility on purpose is what I would consider ineffective at best. I know nothing about nursing homes but I can think of at least two or three other options off the top of my head before ordering that as a governor.

Okay so what are those options?  The field hospitals were designated for non-Covid patients to try and keep them separate from Covid patients.   Hospitals were overwhelmed so designating a hospital entirely for COVID positive seniors wasn't possible.    The nursing homes did attempt quarantine areas for those returning.   

Places that didn't have positive seniors returning from hospitals still had the vast majority of their numbers in nursing homes, so it's debatable how much of the rise was due to that.  In some places the isolation seems to have worked, but lack of testing, lack of understanding how this actual proceeds, made smart decision making pretty hard.   NY didn't have the benefit of seeing how it worked in other places, they had to basically figure it out on the ground as it happened.  

Many other states had the benefit of seeing how this proceeded in NY, what worked, what didn't, and had the opportunity to make much better decisions.  They didn't. 

[ktgrok]

The subway thing, it isn't like we can compare NYCs subway crowding to say, Arizonas or Floridas, lol. We have a car based system here, they didn't. They had no other way to move people. 

(as an aside, this is STIll an issue in places that rely on public transportation. And what is more, we have SO many people not using their cars, because they can work from home. So we have people that need to get to work, but don't have a car, who will have to risk public transport, and then tons of cars sitting unused. I REALLY wish someone would figure out a way to do a non profit ride sharing system, that would include a small fee just to cover the insurance - maybe with insurance companies loosening up restrictions to allow this - so that people like me, that have two cars in their driveway and need less than one currently, could let others use them. I can't afford the insurance risk to just lend it out will nilly to strangers, obviously, but it seems a system COULD be set up to facilitate it. Heck, if it worked, it could be done not just in pandemic times! There are tons of times I don't need my vehicle for days at a time, or at least a large chunk of the day. And here, if you don't have a car public transport is TERRIBLE. I looked at it for my son when he was dual enrolled, and the 25 minute car trip from here to his college campus would be 3 hours and 40 minutes by bus! Each way! Not including walking to the bus stop, which would be another 10 minutes or so at least, then standing in the heat - heat indexes well over 100 degrees. I'd be happy to do some kind of low cost ride share for people that can't afford a car - they get trapped in these long bus rides that cost them so much more in terms of daycare, etc...its' a mess)

Edited June 25, 2020 by Ktgrok

[Happy2BaMom]

1 hour ago, Where's Toto? said:

 

Many other states had the benefit of seeing how this proceeded in NY, what worked, what didn't, and had the opportunity to make much better decisions.  They didn't. 

 

Yeah, I'm waiting to see how other states will measure up to NY, given another 3 months.

 

8 hours ago, EmseB said:

Nope, not the point of my post. The point is that after 30k deaths and people leaving during the peak of that, maybe acting like people from other states are a problem is not well received. Perhaps NY may have a problem with people coming there, and hopefully they quarantine when they return to their homes. But I don’t think a lot of us are itching to go on a NYC vacation or something.

 

There were individual NYers who left LOCKDOWN (meaning they weren't supposed to leave the state according to the governor) and went other places, yes. How does that relate to the *governor* now taking steps to limit a re-ignition of infection? There will always be a$$hats who don't want the rules to apply to them. You seem to be saying that because some random individuals made selfish choices the governor should now be limited in responding to a pandemic?

I also would be cautious about using 30K deaths as some sort of marker. I doubt NY will be alone in their death rate, whether per capita or total #, by the time this pandemic has burned through this country.

[EmseB]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Right, that's the part I'm finding befuddling. Everyone got to watch NY, and instead of trying to do their best with the data, they rushed to decide that the reason NY had a problem was this ONE policy. Which may very well have been a wrong policy, don't get me wrong!! But there are so many other variables, and a lot of people seem to be patting themselves on the back about not having this policy, instead of thinking about what else could go wrong, and learning from NY's experience...

I think that it's a combo of problems, including locking down too early, opening before it was wise because we locked down to early and other things. I hope my posts didn't imply that I thought that it was one policy issue that would save us all. I also think that trying to do our best with data is a matter of perception in some places and has turned super political.

I think what some people see as the US's first wave was largely just major cities on the east coast. So the rest of us flattened our curve for a time but even the slightest opening will result in the same growth patterns seen elsewhere. Without very costly lockdowns, it's hard to see how a lot of this can be avoided when the virus is circulating, even on a low level.

On the other hand, it seems like in LA county, close to me, we have a major uptick in cases, but also a huge uptick in testing. So it seemed like positivity was still relatively low yesterday, if I am looking at things correctly.

I do think that all epidemics to a certain extent follow a curve that is somewhat inevitable shown throughout history (not that mitigation is bad, I'm obviously taking precautions), and we like to think we are advanced enough to beat mother nature with some sort of effort, but I'm not so sure, minus a vaccine, which I'm feeling slightly more optimistic about these days. Especially not with something like this where we are trying to quarantine the healthy because we can't tell the difference between them and the carriers. I don't know if you could engineer a better virus for widespread disaster, honestly.

[EmseB]

5 hours ago, Where's Toto? said:

Okay so what are those options?  The field hospitals were designated for non-Covid patients to try and keep them separate from Covid patients.   Hospitals were overwhelmed so designating a hospital entirely for COVID positive seniors wasn't possible.    The nursing homes did attempt quarantine areas for those returning.   

Places that didn't have positive seniors returning from hospitals still had the vast majority of their numbers in nursing homes, so it's debatable how much of the rise was due to that.  In some places the isolation seems to have worked, but lack of testing, lack of understanding how this actual proceeds, made smart decision making pretty hard.   NY didn't have the benefit of seeing how it worked in other places, they had to basically figure it out on the ground as it happened.  

Many other states had the benefit of seeing how this proceeded in NY, what worked, what didn't, and had the opportunity to make much better decisions.  They didn't. 

Why not redesignate at least one field hospital, or have the national guard set one up for this exact problem? That's just one option off the top of my head.

I don't feel like I personally have to think up all the possible solutions to this simply because it is obvious to me that it is a bad idea at best.

Again, it simply wouldn't occur to me to deliberately put covid+ people into a confined living space with dozens of other vulnerable people. Again, they were *releasing* prisoners for that exact reason.

 

[EmseB]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

I think I've said that before -- that the purpose of shutting down in places which did NOT yet have significant spread was by necessity different than the purpose of shutting down in a place like NY. When there's no curve to flatten, the purpose of shutting down is basically to get your bearings -- that is, figure out how to run everything, set up contact tracing, figure out what you're going to do with the distancing, etc. 

So, yes, if states didn't do that during the shut down, then the shut down winds up being economic pain for no gain. And that's really sad and unfortunate, but I would also say it's not necessary. If you set up contact tracing before you have lots of cases, you are far more likely to get it to work. If you scale up the testing before you have lots of cases, the testing will be much more powerful. If you get people on board with masking, that helps. If you make it clear to people what activities are more or less dangerous, so they can make good decisions... that helps. 

But I agree with you that many states don't seem to have done much of anything along those lines, and that's a big problem... I assume it's partially because they have almost no experience with any of this, so they are writing the book along the way. And it's partially for political reasons, which is just sad when it costs people lives. 

As for all epidemics following similar curves... I don't know, right now Asia is pretty much laughing at us. Their curves look nothing like ours. That could change, of course, but I would guess that cultural differences and experience during SARS/MERS will wind up helping them a lot. 

I guess I do wish I were a tiny country with non-porous borders or surrounded by ocean right now. I'm not sure I'd trade for an authoritarian government that can violate my privacy via my phone/face recognition/social credit systems/etc and put me in jail for non-compliance even if it means giving up my safety. That has always been an aspect of the USA that has baffled other countries, though, that many of us would not trade liberty for safety. We are socialized differently. In a pandemic I think this is kind of a more pronounced issue but being laughed at for having more deaths or sickness isn't, I don't think, the indictment that maybe some think it should be. 

[Joker]

11 minutes ago, square_25 said:

The COVID patients were supposed to be quarantined. They were certainly not supposed to be interacting with the other patients.

I don't know if the field hospitals had the staff or capacity or levels of machinery to deal with highly fragile nursing home patients. I just don't. 

It's possible that the NYS Healthy Commissioner was simply an idiot when he did this. It's also possible he was solving a difficult and intractable problem and came up with something that may have backfired. 

You also have to understand that with or without these COVID patients being sent back, a very sizable fraction of the nursing homes in the Northeast wound up with an outbreak. It's possible that some of these outbreaks were started by the patients being sent back, but I would guess the vast majority were started by pre-symptomatic staff. 

I don't think Florida has has this policy, and yet so far, a big percentage of Florida's deaths have been in nursing homes. It's just a hard problem. It's not clear that this is actually the biggest variable controlling what happens in terms of nursing home deaths. 

I am confused why some seem to focus on NY nursing home deaths when they are a huge problem for every state. They account for almost 50% of my state it looks like, and I think about 40% nationwide. 

Edited June 25, 2020 by Joker

[Wheres Toto]

57 minutes ago, EmseB said:

Why not redesignate at least one field hospital, or have the national guard set one up for this exact problem? That's just one option off the top of my head.

I don't feel like I personally have to think up all the possible solutions to this simply because it is obvious to me that it is a bad idea at best.

Again, it simply wouldn't occur to me to deliberately put covid+ people into a confined living space with dozens of other vulnerable people. Again, they were *releasing* prisoners for that exact reason.

 

Square already commented on the limitations on turning a field hospital into something that could handle the complex needs of elderly patients.   

I only asked because in your other post you said you could come up with two or three better ideas off the top of your head.  I was wondering what they were.    I'm sure many options were considered but most have serious limitations due to the amount of care needed, the contagiousness of the virus, and again, that these decision were having to be made very quickly in a active, scary situation.   

I don't see any other states coming up with great ways to protect the elderly despite having more time to react.  Sweden actively tried to protect the elderly while giving freedom to everyone else, and it didn't work so well for them.  

[Wheres Toto]

Double post

Edited June 25, 2020 by Where's Toto?

[Wheres Toto]

Triple post, ugh. 

Edited June 25, 2020 by Where's Toto?

[Corraleno]

38 minutes ago, Where's Toto? said:

Square already commented on the limitations on turning a field hospital into something that could handle the complex needs of elderly patients.   

I only asked because in your other post you said you could come up with two or three better ideas off the top of your head.  I was wondering what they were.    I'm sure many options were considered but most have serious limitations due to the amount of care needed, the contagiousness of the virus, and again, that these decision were having to be made very quickly in a active, scary situation.   

I don't see any other states coming up with great ways to protect the elderly despite having more time to react.  Sweden actively tried to protect the elderly while giving freedom to everyone else, and it didn't work so well for them.  

Ideally, patients could be returned to their own care homes, with infected and noninfected patients isolated from each other, dedicated staff with full PPE who only worked with infected patients, daily testing, etc. I was the guardian for an elderly relative who was in assisted living for many years. During the 2017-18 flu season, which was unusually bad (61K deaths), there was an outbreak in his care home. All patients had to stay in their rooms, meals were brought to them, visitors were strictly limited, and designated staff only interacted with infected patients and no one else. They managed to contain the spread and had comparatively few deaths. I assume that most care homes have some kind of protocol like that, so it's really not an insane idea to try to manage Covid in a similar way.

I think it was NJ that tried to designate specific nursing homes for infected patients, which seems (in theory at least) like a good solution. But it required moving uninfected patients out of what was basically their home, and moving them to other facilities that were often far away, where they knew no one, and where the staff knew none of their history or needs. Families of those patients were furious! And many patients caught it anyway, because the real problem with protecting people in nursing homes was lack of PPE and adequate testing.

There is NO easy, obvious solution to the problem of people who are not sick enough to continue to take up hospital beds that are desperately needed for sicker patients but also have nowhere else to go. Every solution has disadvantages, and it's easy to criticize any decision if (1) you only focus on the down side and (2) you haven't faced that scenario yourself. If PPE and testing hadn't been such a total cluster$%^& at the national level, we probably would have had far fewer nursing home deaths in ALL states.

Edited June 25, 2020 by Corraleno

[Halftime Hope]

18 hours ago, square_25 said:

I assume they'll take states off the list once they aren't experiencing high rates. They said they'll post new lists every day. 

If Texas doesn't slow down the spread, it'll probably be spreading everywhere soon enough, including the rural areas :-/. Especially since people have a tendency to run away from places with high rates of cases and go somewhere doesn't have a problem... 

 

Which is precisely what a lot of NYers did.  To FL, just like they do every year, and no, they did not quarantine themselves.   (We have many friends in Miami Beach and in Boca Raton. )  

I am of the opinion that people should not be traveling at this time, if they can help it, so for me it applies both ways. 

[Hyacinth]

If I travel to NY from a “spiking” state, stay only with my mom for a few days, and then travel straight home, I’m not violating anything, right? The 14-day quarantine means I’d need to stay put before I wander around NY, not stay put that long before going home, right? 

[Pronghorn]

Those of us in New York and New Jersey were guinea pigs, the ones who had to feel their way in the dark and figure out how to bring the curve down. We have suffered a lot to do this. And in the meantime, all of the other states can learn from what we have done. Because of our suffering, they are in a much better situation than we were when our curve began to climb. I feel we have earned the right to not be reinfected, especially by people from states who have refused to learn from our example.

[ktgrok]

 

1 hour ago, Hyacinth said:

If I travel to NY from a “spiking” state, stay only with my mom for a few days, and then travel straight home, I’m not violating anything, right? The 14-day quarantine means I’d need to stay put before I wander around NY, not stay put that long before going home, right? 

As long as you are not going to the store, etc, I would think that is fine. 

[Pawz4me]

2 hours ago, Corraleno said:

I think it was NJ that tried to designate specific nursing homes for infected patients, which seems (in theory at least) like a good solution. But it required moving uninfected patients out of what was basically their home, and moving them to other facilities that were often far away, where they knew no one, and where the staff knew none of their history or needs. Families of those patients were furious! 

One nursing home here (NC) near me did the same thing with one of their facilities. They moved all their patients to one of their other facilities, some as far as a two hour drive away, so that they could dedicate the original facility to Covid patients. I haven't heard how that's going, though.

[Halftime Hope]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Which is gross, and I absolutely disapprove. 

On the other hand, I would guess that NY seeded a lot of of the spread unwittingly in February and very early March, before anyone knew NY had a problem. And that's not because NY is evil, it's because NY is really cosmopolitan, and since the virus came in from Europe, it wound up with the biggest amount of community spread in the second half of February. 

 

I was in NYC for 5 days in the second week of December. There were  a lot of Chinese fans who came to the concert I was there for, but not nearly as many as had bought tickets, because for some reason, they were having trouble getting visas.  Now I have no idea where in China they were from, but almost certainly from big cities.  I'm just glad that the person I was standing next to for three hours during the concert, and the ones in line with me for hours prior to that (yes, we were all like sardines, body against body, for two hours outside Barclays on a balmy, non-windy day), that none of them were sick.  It wouldn't have surprised me at all to hear that some of the cases were a direct strain that came from China, not mutated somewhat through Europe. 

 

 

[Pen]

Some people in NY / NJ who don’t leave for the whole winter because they work, do have homes in other areas besides upstate NY

1 hour ago, Dotwithaperiod said:

Do we even have a round about number of how many people from NYC left the area for other states? I thought someone here said many went to her upstate area. Because in my area, people had  left for warmer weather by October, and returned in May-June, like they do every single year. 

 

. Sometimes New England, but also places farther away, like Hilton Head, Los Angeles, islands south of Florida, etc. 

 

no idea on numbers

but I know my mother’s rural area in a southern state was supposed to have CV19 brought in by a visiting New Yorker.  Now it’s a rapid rising CV19 state. 

[Wheres Toto]

4 hours ago, Dotwithaperiod said:

Do we even have a round about number of how many people from NYC left the area for other states? I thought someone here said many went to her upstate area. Because in my area, people had  left for warmer weather by October, and returned in May-June, like they do every single year. 

 

Yeah, I'm sure most of the snow birds were already down South by the time things ramped up.  I know a few people who stayed in Florida longer than usual because of the situation and now wish they had just come home.   Mid-Winter Breaks in February and Spring Breaks in March were probably still taken depending on what week.  Spring Breaks later in March or in April a lot were probably cancelled.    I did see a lot of people cancelling European or Islands trips in March and April.  Cruises were getting cancelled by March.  

I don't even know how they would track those kinds of statistics.    Especially if people drive rather than fly.

Edited June 26, 2020 by Where's Toto?