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Coronavirus spikes

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11 hours ago, Joker said:

Yeah, if it was one of my kids I wouldn’t have even mentioned it here. But it’s my sis who I’m not close to because of what she thinks of my amazing kids. I’m only picking her up out of love and respect for my mom but I don’t want to put any of us at risk to do so. It’s complicated and difficult. I wish I could opt out of all it at the moment but I can’t or I wouldn’t like myself very much. Sometimes I wish I wasn’t so nice and could treat others how they treat me but for some reason I can’t. 
 

Sorry I’m venting here on all of you but it really sucks.

 

Put your own kids first?

what if your Sis has an Asymptomatic case, but you catch it and have a serious case?

 

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9 hours ago, square_25 said:

NY is also not increasing, and it had lots of protests.

 

By “not increasing,” do you mean Not spiking up sharply? 

 

To me the graphs I have seen look like increase Is happening—but because the scale got set from the deluge that was overwhelming hospitals awhile ago it doesn’t look huge.    Yet if it were looked at as if it were toward the start of a new situation where we were looking at numbers like 2, 4, 8 as an OMG   there may be a problem.

numbers of new cases like 902, 904, 908, 916,  ... if they continue  may also signal the start of a new problem situation   It is hard to tell when numbers like that are just little daily fluctuations around a steady situation with R0 close to 1, or when they could be a new wave sliding in across the prior plateau

 

Could be genuinely fairly stable, or could be growing but it doesn’t look like a spike because the prior numbers are already so huge. 

 

 

 

DB0E2AD7-8153-4747-9F80-44CB4986FB6C.png

Edited by Pen
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2 hours ago, Danae said:

There was a bigger flare traced to two bars in Mankato (smallish city) that spread into one of the daycare centers. 

Oh this gets interesting. So if the Y is saying they have watched 40k children with no incidents, then maybe the Y is screening their employees? So that means essentially children returning to school are subjected to the risks of whatever their teachers, aides, bus drivers, etc. are doing on the weekends. 

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39 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

By “not increasing,” do you mean Not spiking up sharply? 

 

To me the graphs I have seen look like increase Is happening—but because the scale got set from the deluge that was overwhelming hospitals awhile ago it doesn’t look huge.    Yet if it were looked at as if it were toward the start of a new situation where we were looking at numbers like 2, 4, 8 as an OMG   there may be a problem.

numbers of new cases like 902, 904, 908, 916,  ... if they continue  may also signal the start of a new problem situation   It is hard to tell when numbers like that are just little daily fluctuations around a steady situation with R0 close to 1, or when they could be a new wave sliding in across the prior plateau

 

Could be genuinely fairly stable, or could be growing but it doesn’t look like a spike because the prior numbers are already so huge. 

 

 

 

DB0E2AD7-8153-4747-9F80-44CB4986FB6C.png

The percent positive was going down until very recently. It started inching up again a few days ago, but it’s been quite a few weeks since the protests, so I don’t expect the protests are the problem — more likely to be more people indoors working.

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15 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

Oh this gets interesting. So if the Y is saying they have watched 40k children with no incidents, then maybe the Y is screening their employees? So that means essentially children returning to school are subjected to the risks of whatever their teachers, aides, bus drivers, etc. are doing on the weekends. 

Or also, during the time the Y was watching those kids without incident, bars (and a lot of other stuff) were closed, so the employees just didn't have as much opportunity to bring infection in.

I think we all need to keep our guards up as things reopen, and of the love of pete, wear masks!

ETA: Adding this here - I'd already posted it in another thread, but I think it bears reposting.  Masks work if everyone uses them.

 

 

Edited by Matryoshka
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17 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

Or also, during the time the Y was watching those kids without incident, bars (and a lot of other stuff) were closed, so the employees just didn't have as much opportunity to bring infection in.

Yes - spread will look different with things open than otherwise. And the parents of those kids - do we know if they were healthcare workers wearing masks, delivery people doing contactless delivery, or store clerks with tons of exposure? 

To know it doesn't spread from child to child in a daycare/school setting, we'd need to know that some of the parents or teachers WERE infected, and that therefore the kids had an opportunity to catch it and spread it. AND we'd need to be actually testing them. If not, if they were never exposed, and/or we never tested them,  than this wouldn't prove anything about if they can spread it, although it is at least some slight reason for optimism. But not enough to base actually opening schools on. 

Which comes back to, ARE we doing that? Testing the parents, testing the kids, testing the teachers, to see how this spreads? Like, in a prospective study, on purpose? I'm not hearing that and I don't get why. 

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34 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

Or also, during the time the Y was watching those kids without incident, bars (and a lot of other stuff) were closed, so the employees just didn't have as much opportunity to bring infection in.

Good point

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44 minutes ago, square_25 said:

The percent positive was going down until very recently. It started inching up again a few days ago, but it’s been quite a few weeks since the protests, so I don’t expect the protests are the problem — more likely to be more people indoors working.

I saw elsewhere NY hasn't been doing as much testing, but I can't verify or tell if that's correct because people post graphs and charts with no links or attribution as to where they got them.

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50 minutes ago, square_25 said:

The percent positive was going down until very recently. It started inching up again a few days ago, but it’s been quite a few weeks since the protests, so I don’t expect the protests are the problem — more likely to be more people indoors working.

But the media has been blaming the recent spikes in other states to reopenings which happened May 1 and had no issues during the month before the protests.  The spikes occurred 2-3 weeks after the protests.  Based on that logic, NY shouldn’t see spikes for 6 weeks then.

 

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1 minute ago, matrips said:

But the media has been blaming the recent spikes in other states to reopenings which happened May 1 and had no issues during the month before the protests.  The spikes occurred 2-3 weeks after the protests.  Based on that logic, NY shouldn’t see spikes for 6 weeks then.

 

Not everything opened at once on May 1st in many places I thought. It was gradual. In my state we started reopening May 1st and numbers remained fine until bars reopened. Two weeks after bars opening is when our numbers started rising. Protests here had been going on since end of May but bars didn’t open until mid June.

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14 hours ago, PeterPan said:

 But yeah the spikes are starting to get really peaked here and when were the protests?

 

14 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I have seen calculation supposedly saying they didn’t have an impact but to be honest I find that hard to believe 

 

14 hours ago, Danae said:

Minneapolis is not increasing. If the protests have an effect it should hit here first, and so far it has not.  

No one that I know of is saying there was no spread at protests. However, masks were the norm at most protests, they were outdoors, and the spikes don't seem to be related to them. Yes, it's the close indoor activities such as young people going to bars, groups having house parties, etc. that are causing the clusters. Those people then go to work and spread it there, and so on and so on.

CNN has been named a few times in this thread as if they're the only news outlet saying protests weren't the problem, but they're not. Those last two link to stories from Idaho. Health officials in Idaho - IDAHO - far from being the most liberal state in the U.S. - saying it was bars, not protests causing numbers to go up.

https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/24/883017035/what-contact-tracing-may-tell-about-cluster-spread-of-the-coronavirus

https://people.com/health/black-lives-matter-protests-no-spike-in-coronavirus-cases/

https://www.eater.com/2020/6/24/21301793/idaho-protests-vigils-did-not-contribute-to-coronavirus-spike-but-bars-did

https://www.idahopress.com/news/local/a-vigil-of-thousands-didnt-cause-1a-covid-19-cases-to-spike-but-bar-visits/article_acc59674-add0-50e0-ab03-b8db648db4d3.html

Edited by Lady Florida.
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9 minutes ago, matrips said:

But the media has been blaming the recent spikes in other states to reopenings which happened May 1 and had no issues during the month before the protests.  The spikes occurred 2-3 weeks after the protests.  Based on that logic, NY shouldn’t see spikes for 6 weeks then.

 

As someone else just said, places didn't open all at once, especially here in the Northeast where we were hard-hit.  Where I am, bars and even indoor dining still haven't opened yet now.

Someone on another thread posted a great site where they'd broken down what each state's R0 has been doing over time (how many new people each case infects - if the value is below 1, cases decline, if it's over 1, they're going up, if it's exactly 1, you're just holding steady).  If you clicked on each state's chart, you could see how closing/opening affected R0.  It was rather stark.  I will try and find it and link it here too... but I do remember looking at NY - it's R0 has crept up since it's loosened restrictions, but not a ton, and it's still just under 1.  The states with problems have had their R0 skyrocket since reopening - it's really stark. My state, which admittedly hasn't opened bars and indoor dining yet, but is allowing outdoor dining and had lots of protests, is actually still not just under R0=1, but has continued to go down over this time (and I dearly hope that trend continues and we don't get complacent!)  Mask wearing here is pretty universal.

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26 minutes ago, EmseB said:

I saw elsewhere NY hasn't been doing as much testing, but I can't verify or tell if that's correct because people post graphs and charts with no links or attribution as to where they got them.

No, we’ve been fairly consistently at around 60,000 tests a day for the past month. It’s one of the metrics that counties need to keep high in order to open up.  I look at the official nygov website. Look for the regional dashboards section under NY forward. 

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3 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

As someone else just said, places didn't open all at once, especially here in the Northeast where we were hard-hit.  Where I am, bars and even indoor dining still haven't opened yet now.

Someone on another thread posted a great site where they'd broken down what each state's R0 has been doing over time (how many new people each case infects - if the value is below 1, cases decline, if it's over 1, they're going up, if it's exactly 1, you're just holding steady).  If you clicked on each state's chart, you could see how closing/opening affected R0.  It was rather stark.  I will try and find it and link it here too... but I do remember looking at NY - it's R0 has crept up since it's loosened restrictions, but not a ton, and it's still just under 1.  The states with problems have had their R0 skyrocket since reopening - it's really stark. My state, which admittedly hasn't opened bars and indoor dining yet, but is allowing outdoor dining and had lots of protests, is actually still not just under R0=1, but has continued to go down over this time (and I dearly hope that trend continues and we don't get complacent!)  Mask wearing here is pretty universal.

Do you remember which thread had that graph?  I’d love to check it out.  Thanks.

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Just now, matrips said:

Do you remember which thread had that graph?  I’d love to check it out.  Thanks.

I'm searching for it now!  I'm looking on the ginormous thread first, but I'm really not sure which one it was on.  I should have bookmarked it. 🙄  If anyone else knows what the heck I'm talking about and finds it first, please do re-link.

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36 minutes ago, matrips said:

But the media has been blaming the recent spikes in other states to reopenings which happened May 1 and had no issues during the month before the protests.  The spikes occurred 2-3 weeks after the protests.  Based on that logic, NY shouldn’t see spikes for 6 weeks then.

 

Here in Florida we are blaming the re-opening of bars, etc which started June 5th I think, not may 1st. OUr spikes started almost exactly two weeks after they opened bars, expanded the opening of gyms, etc. Oh, and movie theaters are open too. 

Edited by Ktgrok
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32 minutes ago, Lady Florida. said:

masks were the norm at most protests, they were outdoors, and the spikes don't seem to be related to them.

DC mayor is out telling people not to do things in groups even outside for the 4th because it will spread. Hahaha, the hypocrisy by the people making the rules never ends.

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12 minutes ago, Joker said:

Apparently one bar is responsible for over 70 cases in Michigan.  I really think all states need to rethink indoor dining and bars.

https://www.bridgemi.com/business-watch/michigan-bars-worry-east-lansing-bars-coronavirus-tally-tops-70-cases 

So you're condemning restaurants when it was a bar?? On tv last night they were saying the bar cases trace directly to bar specific behaviors.

Edited by PeterPan

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17 minutes ago, Joker said:

Apparently one bar is responsible for over 70 cases in Michigan.  I really think all states need to rethink indoor dining and bars.

https://www.bridgemi.com/business-watch/michigan-bars-worry-east-lansing-bars-coronavirus-tally-tops-70-cases 

I'm starting to really hope that with this new info, our state makes a new, final reopening phase and puts bars and indoor dining waaay out there...  especially since now we can have outdoor dining.  We need to clear this up before winter when indoor dining will be the only option.

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18 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

So you're condemning restaurants when it was a bar?? On tv last night they were saying the bar cases trace directly to bar specific behaviors.

I'll agree that bars are way more problematic than just eating indoors, but there was also that recent study of credit-card behavior that tied spikes to increases to increased in-person restaurant eating (although that report didn't differentiate outdoor or indoor in-person eating, which I think is a big hole in the study...).

(If anyone wants a link to that study, it's in the first post on page 4 of this very thread...)

Edited by Matryoshka
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15 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

DC mayor is out telling people not to do things in groups even outside for the 4th because it will spread. Hahaha, the hypocrisy by the people making the rules never ends.

Again, no one, not even the DC mayor, has said outdoor activities can't spread the virus. No one has said there was no spread at the protests. Just that they're not to blame for the spikes. That's not hypocrisy. Hypocrisy would be if they said protests are fine, it can't be spread that way but outdoor cookouts are bad, it will spread that way*. That's not what's been said. 

*Although, outdoor gatherings of friends and family do have a tendency to have people closer together and not masked. Here in Florida it's common to cook outside then bring the food indoors to eat because it's too hot out. The exception might be if the host has a pool, but for many people summer cookouts here mean eating indoors.

Edited by Lady Florida.
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Yeah, no one is saying the protests were a good thing from a public health standpoint. They were a risk. That doesn't mean that we should add on the risk of barbecues and parades. That's nonsensical. This isn't a matter of "well, suzy got to do it, so I will to". The germs don't care. And parties and family gatherings are a known major risk - lots of contract tracing goes back to family get togethers. By nature people relax, take off their masks in that setting, get closer, often are drinking alcohol which lowers inhibitions and makes it harder to judge personal space, etc. Not to mention, people are more likely to be hugging, sharing food utensils, etc. 

No one is saying "outdoor protests are totally safe - go have one and don't worry!" No one. 

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51 minutes ago, Joker said:

Apparently one bar is responsible for over 70 cases in Michigan.  I really think all states need to rethink indoor dining and bars.

https://www.bridgemi.com/business-watch/michigan-bars-worry-east-lansing-bars-coronavirus-tally-tops-70-cases 

I read the story (by the way the picture is from March - a bit deceptive) and then read a story in the Detroit Free Press.  Apparently, one kid who went to the bar went home to Grosse Point and held a huge part WHILE SYMPTOMATIC and then didn’t tell people until at least a day after he knew his test results.  Seriously, I think it is tough to pin all the blame on the bar.  Who in their right mind stays at a party where the host is symptomatic and getting sicker?  And then one of those kids went and hosted their own party that same weekend?  You just can’t help some people. 

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5 minutes ago, Mom2mthj said:

I read the story (by the way the picture is from March - a bit deceptive) and then read a story in the Detroit Free Press.  Apparently, one kid who went to the bar went home to Grosse Point and held a huge part WHILE SYMPTOMATIC and then didn’t tell people until at least a day after he knew his test results.  Seriously, I think it is tough to pin all the blame on the bar.  Who in their right mind stays at a party where the host is symptomatic and getting sicker?  And then one of those kids went and hosted their own party that same weekend?  You just can’t help some people. 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/06/26/51-coronavirus-covid-19-cases-now-linked-to-outbreak-at-east-lansing-bar/%3foutputType=amp

This article was written when they only knew of 51 positives and it states 49 of those people were actual customers at the bar. So, yeah, I think most of the spread is definitely due to being at the bar.

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This is our graph, and it was June 5th that we did our phase 2 reopening - note - masks were never required for ANY of these things, not for employees or patrons:

 Bars can open to 50% capacity indoors, unlimited outdoor seating. Restaurants allowed to seat people at the bar if they have one. 

• Movie theaters, bowling alleys, and concert venues open - 50% capacity

• Gyms move to full capacity 

• Retail goes to full capacity

Screen Shot 2020-06-27 at 12.43.09 PM.png

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5 minutes ago, Joker said:

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.clickondetroit.com/news/local/2020/06/26/51-coronavirus-covid-19-cases-now-linked-to-outbreak-at-east-lansing-bar/%3foutputType=amp

This article was written when they only knew of 51 positives and it states 49 of those people were actual customers at the bar. So, yeah, I think most of the spread is definitely due to being at the bar.

At last count one bar in Seminole County Florida is tied to over 150 cases. 

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1 hour ago, Matryoshka said:

As someone else just said, places didn't open all at once, especially here in the Northeast where we were hard-hit.  Where I am, bars and even indoor dining still haven't opened yet now.

Someone on another thread posted a great site where they'd broken down what each state's R0 has been doing over time (how many new people each case infects - if the value is below 1, cases decline, if it's over 1, they're going up, if it's exactly 1, you're just holding steady).  If you clicked on each state's chart, you could see how closing/opening affected R0.  It was rather stark.  I will try and find it and link it here too... but I do remember looking at NY - it's R0 has crept up since it's loosened restrictions, but not a ton, and it's still just under 1.  The states with problems have had their R0 skyrocket since reopening - it's really stark. My state, which admittedly hasn't opened bars and indoor dining yet, but is allowing outdoor dining and had lots of protests, is actually still not just under R0=1, but has continued to go down over this time (and I dearly hope that trend continues and we don't get complacent!)  Mask wearing here is pretty universal.

 

@Matryoshka Was it this? I had asked square_25 about it. I am not sure about their statements about how they adjust the data (in the FAQs).   I am not sure, in other words, how reliable this is.  https://rt.live/?fbclid=IwAR1PSTTEjQfgWfGnEGtk3U_Uf0PkeHSyqrd6hHwdBid6p0m1044RdGk07jA

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38 minutes ago, cintinative said:

 

@Matryoshka Was it this? I had asked square_25 about it. I am not sure about their statements about how they adjust the data (in the FAQs).   I am not sure, in other words, how reliable this is.  https://rt.live/?fbclid=IwAR1PSTTEjQfgWfGnEGtk3U_Uf0PkeHSyqrd6hHwdBid6p0m1044RdGk07jA

Yes!!! That was it, thank you. 

Maybe @square_25 can chime in about the data adjustments?  I don't think she has yet?  Some adjustments make the results more reliable rather than less, which is what I think they're aiming for...

Edited by Matryoshka
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2 hours ago, matrips said:

But the media has been blaming the recent spikes in other states to reopenings which happened May 1 and had no issues during the month before the protests.  The spikes occurred 2-3 weeks after the protests.  Based on that logic, NY shouldn’t see spikes for 6 weeks then.

The reopenings are not static. If you look at OpenTable data, restaurant capacity was very low until fairly recently. The data is extremely consistent with the spread being largely indoors.  

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2 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

Yes!!! That was it, thank you. 

Maybe @square_25 can chime in about the data adjustments?  I don't think she has yet? 

Does this say how exactly it calculates Rt anywhere?? I was looking at it briefly and couldn't find it... 

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3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Does this say how exactly it calculates Rt anywhere?? I was looking at it briefly and couldn't find it... 

I think it's here in the FAQ. A lot of explanation,  and the last question gives a further link to their source code to their model.

Edited by Matryoshka
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This is not just "spikes".  Yesterday (26 June 2020) the CDC announced that they now believe the actual number of Covid-19 cases in the USA is 10 X what they had previously thought. I believe they said about 24 million people in the USA have it?

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re testing, particularly wrt planned school reopening

2 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

Yes - spread will look different with things open than otherwise. And the parents of those kids - do we know if they were healthcare workers wearing masks, delivery people doing contactless delivery, or store clerks with tons of exposure? 

To know it doesn't spread from child to child in a daycare/school setting, we'd need to know that some of the parents or teachers WERE infected, and that therefore the kids had an opportunity to catch it and spread it. AND we'd need to be actually testing them. If not, if they were never exposed, and/or we never tested them,  than this wouldn't prove anything about if they can spread it, although it is at least some slight reason for optimism. But not enough to base actually opening schools on. 

Which comes back to, ARE we doing that? Testing the parents, testing the kids, testing the teachers, to see how this spreads? Like, in a prospective study, on purpose? I'm not hearing that and I don't get why. 

FWIW, this is the (current work-in-progress, subject to what conditions look like mid-August) gist of the testing components of the plan that the leaders of my youngest's school (Choate, a boarding school in Wallingford CT) laid out for parents earlier this week:

  • All students, faculty and other school personnel will need to quarantine for 14 days prior to return to school day;
  • Any students flying from any international location or any of the states meeting the NY/NJ/CT out-of-state quarantine hurdles discussed over on the other thread will need to quarantine *in CT* for those 14 days (housing & meals provision will be made for those who need it)
  • All students, faculty and other school personnel will receive by mail an at-home test which they'll need to return to the school 5 days prior to return to school day
  • Any positive tests will need to step up from "quarantine" conditions to "isolation" conditions (both exhaustively defined by the school, but for purposes of this thread, "quarantine" is a lesser threshold that can be done in well-contained family groups; isolation is alone and within a single room, with only contact with PPE/medical providers) for 14 days
  • Once at school, a random sample of 10% of the student/faculty/other personnel will be tested each week.  Any positives -- with or without symptoms -- will go into "isolation" for 14 days and (via an exhaustive and invasive contact tracing system I need not go into, here, for this purposes) all people with whom they've been in contact will also be tested.

The school has arranged for adequate tests to do this (they'll be using "pool" testing for the random sampling, which helps considerable; and they're participating in a substantial Yale-sponsored research, with also helps).  If the testing shows transmission above pre-established limits, they will shut down again.  

Not all students or parents will be willing to live with that degree of restriction or that degree of uncertainty.  Not all schools will be able to gain access to that amount of test equipment. But that's what they see as necessary to open at all.  I expect plenty more residence-based schools, colleges and universities are thrashing out the same basic issues.

 

re really slowed-down phased re-opening:

2 hours ago, Matryoshka said:

As someone else just said, places didn't open all at once, especially here in the Northeast where we were hard-hit.  Where I am, bars and even indoor dining still haven't opened yet now.

Someone on another thread posted a great site where they'd broken down what each state's R0 has been doing over time (how many new people each case infects - if the value is below 1, cases decline, if it's over 1, they're going up, if it's exactly 1, you're just holding steady).  If you clicked on each state's chart, you could see how closing/opening affected R0.  It was rather stark.  I will try and find it and link it here too... but I do remember looking at NY - it's R0 has crept up since it's loosened restrictions, but not a ton, and it's still just under 1.  The states with problems have had their R0 skyrocket since reopening - it's really stark. My state, which admittedly hasn't opened bars and indoor dining yet, but is allowing outdoor dining and had lots of protests, is actually still not just under R0=1, but has continued to go down over this time (and I dearly hope that trend continues and we don't get complacent!)  Mask wearing here is pretty universal.

Right.  We still haven't.

 

 

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32 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

I think it's here in the FAQ. A lot of explanation,  and the last question gives a further link to their source code to their model.

Yeah, I'd have to look at their source code, which I won't understand without a lot of work. Otherwise, it says 

"In the simplest terms, it searches for the most likely curve of Rt that produced the new cases per day that we observe. It does this through some neat (and powerful!) math that is beyond the scope of this FAQ,"

which tells me about the same amount as "we wave a wand," lol. One thing I would say they are doing wrong is using the total number of cases, which I think is a worse statistic than the percentage of cases. 

Edited by square_25

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26 minutes ago, Lanny said:

This is not just "spikes".  Yesterday (26 June 2020) the CDC announced that they now believe the actual number of Covid-19 cases in the USA is 10 X what they had previously thought. I believe they said about 24 million people in the USA have it?

Oh, yeah, that's always been the expectation. That's the people who HAVE had it at some point, not the people who currently have it. It's the same way as 14% of NYS have had it, using antibodies. 

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Umm I’m getting nervous. Dh has been coming home and telling me the numbers at his hospital and across all of his hospital chain. It’s not looking good. 
 

NV just added 1099 cases in 24 hours with over 970 coming from my county alone. We doubled our previous record. 
Mandatory mask wearing started Friday. 
 

ETA: oh thank goodness the numbers were a result of a delay in lab reporting. 
 

Edited by Plum
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15 hours ago, EmseB said:

Okay, and sorry for another question, but can anyone tell what the source of these graphs is?

 

I can't find a source for these graphs, but I doubt they are coming from any "official" source, since the Portland/Vancouver one is combining stats from two different states. To me they look like they were intentionally created to make fairly small, gradual increases look like sharp spikes — the horizontal scale has been dramatically compressed, the vertical scales are in very small increments, and they are combining stats for huge urban areas that each include 3-5 counties, with populations ranging from 2-5 million. For example, in looking at the Seattle metro area, does an increase from ~80 cases/day a month ago to ~120 cases/day now, in an area of 4 million people, really count as a "spike"? And why would anyone assume those cases are from protests rather than get-togethers related to Memorial Day, Father's Day, thousands of graduations, and increased reopening of businesses?

I know that officials in Multnomah County (Portland) have explicitly said they have only found "a small handful" of cases related to the protests, and that the majority of their cases are in immigrant and refugee communities with multi-generational (and often multi-family) housing conditions as well as small businesses (which were allowed to reopen statewide on June 1st). The upward trend in the Bay Area clearly started well before the protests and those increases are in line with overall increases throughout the state. 

Considering the extent of the protests in those areas, the very small increases in very large urban populations certainly seem to support the idea that protests didn't lead to large spikes in cases. Compare the stats for those 4 areas to major 3-5 county urban areas in FL, TX, and other states that have opened bars & restaurants, and you're looking at thousands of cases per day, not just 100-200 cases.

Edited by Corraleno
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44 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

I can't find a source for these graphs, but I doubt they are coming from any "official" source, since the Portland/Vancouver one is combining stats from two different states. To me they look like they were intentionally created to make fairly small, gradual increases look like sharp spikes — the horizontal scale has been dramatically compressed, the vertical scales are in very small increments, and they are combining stats for huge urban areas that each include 3-5 counties, with populations ranging from 2-5 million. For example, in looking at the Seattle metro area, does an increase from ~80 cases/day a month ago to ~120 cases/day now, in an area of 4 million people, really count as a "spike"? And why would anyone assume those cases are from protests rather than get-togethers related to Memorial Day, Father's Day, thousands of graduations, and increased reopening of businesses?

I know that officials in Multnomah County (Portland) have explicitly said they have only found "a small handful" of cases related to the protests, and that the majority of their cases are in immigrant and refugee communities with multi-generational (and often multi-family) housing conditions as well as small businesses (which were allowed to reopen statewide on June 1st). The upward trend in the Bay Area clearly started well before the protests and those increases are in line with overall increases throughout the state. 

Considering the extent of the protests in those areas, the very small increases in very large urban populations certainly seem to support the idea that protests didn't lead to large spikes in cases. Compare the stats for those 4 areas to major 3-5 county urban areas in FL, TX, and other states that have opened bars & restaurants, and you're looking at thousands of cases per day, not just 100-200 cases.

All of these places are continuing to reopen. I do not see why you would blame the protests as opposed to the reopening... 

Oh, and NY's positivity rate has continued to go down all of June. We had lots of protests. 

Edited by square_25
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1 hour ago, Corraleno said:

I can't find a source for these graphs, but I doubt they are coming from any "official" source, since the Portland/Vancouver one is combining stats from two different states.

 <snip>

“Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI” also makes no sense.  Bloomington is a suburb of Minneapolis.  There is also a Bloomington in Wisconsin, but it’s a village of 700 people 200 miles from Mineapolis-St. Paul.  

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7 hours ago, Matryoshka said:

there was also that recent study of credit-card behavior that tied spikes to increases to increased in-person restaurant eating (although that report didn't differentiate outdoor or indoor in-person eating, which I think is a big hole in the study...).

Or you could just as easily correlate it to any other behavior that increased during that time. Or better yet, it was decreased s*x. That's the real problem. People left home, less s*x, people less well, more susceptible to covid. Just saying. 

@square_25 we need data on this. :biggrin:

Whatever happened to CONTACT TRACING??? Why the hooey made up correlations if all these states are spending $$$$$$$$ on contact tracing? Everybody in our part of the country has hired out the wazoo.

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7 hours ago, Lady Florida. said:

not even the DC mayor, has said outdoor activities can't spread the virus.

Actually it's the opposite. She's out telling people having an outdoor event with their friends for the 4th will be DANGEROUS but protesting in the streets (which the mayor joined in) was not dangerous.

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3 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

Or you could just as easily correlate it to any other behavior that increased during that time. Or better yet, it was decreased s*x. That's the real problem. People left home, less s*x, people less well, more susceptible to covid. Just saying. 

@square_25 we need data on this. :biggrin:

Whatever happened to CONTACT TRACING??? Why the hooey made up correlations if all these states are spending $$$$$$$$ on contact tracing? Everybody in our part of the country has hired out the wazoo.

Yeah, it's possible it was something else. But actually, this is a pretty good natural experiment, because places are opening at different times. You can predict the coronavirus spikes now almost perfectly by which places opened restaurants earlier. 

I don't think we have as much information as some places, so it's hard to contact trace restaurants. I know that places with less privacy have absolutely contact traced almost every single outbreak to an indoor area. 

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2 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

Actually it's the opposite. She's out telling people having an outdoor event with their friends for the 4th will be DANGEROUS but protesting in the streets (which the mayor joined in) was not dangerous.

Oh, who cares what knots politicians tie themselves into?? The point is that I can tell you, having watched the data really carefully, that indoor stuff seems much riskier than outdoor stuff. 

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Here's a list of states with restaurants at above 40% capacity on 5/30: 

Alabama, Arizona, Florida, Kansas, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Texas. 

I picked a pretty random day and a capacity that was relatively high for that day. As you can see, the lists wind up looking pretty darn familiar. 

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1 minute ago, PeterPan said:

Actually it's the opposite. She's out telling people having an outdoor event with their friends for the 4th will be DANGEROUS but protesting in the streets (which the mayor joined in) was not dangerous.

I haven't heard that from Bowser, but I haven't read as much as I'd like.  Can you link something that says it's not dangerous?  

I've read where she's basically said she thinks the issue is worth taking the risk, or that she respects their first amendment right to protest.  But I've also read where the DC government set up testing, and encouraged protesters to get tested.  

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13 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

I haven't heard that from Bowser, but I haven't read as much as I'd like.  Can you link something that says it's not dangerous?  

I've read where she's basically said she thinks the issue is worth taking the risk, or that she respects their first amendment right to protest.  But I've also read where the DC government set up testing, and encouraged protesters to get tested.  

I know that in NY, Cuomo definitely both said he supported the protesters, and said he wanted everyone to mask up and socially distance. 

Having watched a protest, people were definitely masking up but not really distancing. But again... outdoor events are just different. 

Edited by square_25
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25 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

Whatever happened to CONTACT TRACING??? Why the hooey made up correlations if all these states are spending $$$$$$$$ on contact tracing? Everybody in our part of the country has hired out the wazoo.

Well, as I posted above, officials in Multnomah County (Portland) who have very low cases and good contact tracing, have explicitly said that they have only seen "a small handful of cases" from the protests, and the majority of cases involve family transmission in immigrant and refugee communities, where multi-generational and multi-family living is common, and in small businesses, which were recently reopened. So that's info. based on actual, contact-traced data. But feel free to ignore it if you'd rather keep believing that Portland's small increase in cases in the last month is 100% due to protests. 🙄

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1 minute ago, Corraleno said:

Well, as I posted above, officials in Multnomah County (Portland) who have very low cases and good contact tracing, have explicitly said that they have only seen "a small handful of cases" from the protests, and the majority of cases involve family transmission in immigrant and refugee communities, where multi-generational and multi-family living is common, and in small businesses, which were recently reopened. So that's info. based on actual, contact-traced data. But feel free to ignore it if you'd rather keep believing that Portland's small increase in cases in the last month is 100% due to protests. 🙄

So I know in NYC, they were told not to ask about protest attendance here, so that people were more likely to talk to the tracers, I think (I think that's silly, by the way.) And anyway, you can't really trace something to a protest, so something you picked up at a protest would likely be registered as "unknown." 

That being said, if they know where most of the cases are from, they would know they are large;y not from protests. 

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38 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

Or you could just as easily correlate it to any other behavior that increased during that time. Or better yet, it was decreased s*x. That's the real problem. People left home, less s*x, people less well, more susceptible to covid. Just saying. 

@square_25 we need data on this. :biggrin:

Whatever happened to CONTACT TRACING??? Why the hooey made up correlations if all these states are spending $$$$$$$$ on contact tracing? Everybody in our part of the country has hired out the wazoo.

Here they widely tested people who went to protests - there hasn't been a big bump.  We've also got extensive contact tracing going on.  There just isn't that much spread here right now, fortunately.  We wear masks - seems to be working. 

Other people in other states have posted that contact tracing has shown bars as the biggest culprit for a number of superspreader events. Looking for patterns in aggregate credit card data is a kind of contact tracing. None of these things are wild speculations based on nothing; they're based on... data. I'm actually surprised and relieved the protests haven't driven much spread - I was honestly a bit freaked by that possibility.  But data - not speculation - does not seem to be bearing this out. 

We also KNOW now that this virus is mostly spread by close personal contact through the air/droplets.  So more or less s*x isn't going to make any difference one way or another, lol. 

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