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I am under no illusion that it is easy to make decisions now. We all are struggling to make decisions for our own families each day so it must be unimaginably difficult to make decisions on a county, state, federal level. It's like we were all dumped into the rabbit hole except we did not land in Wonderland but Epidemicland. 

Still, we have been given distance and even we as families are becoming better because we learn and we care. We care about our children, our families, our neighbors, our communities. We look at truth stark in the face even if we prefer to bury our heads. Some days are bad, some days are good, some decisions are stupid, some are bad, we constantly second guess but when you consistently make hard decisions and do not deny what is happening  the family survives better. We may not thrive but we increase the chances of us as a family coming out of this. 

Same theory applies to national level or state level. Did Cuomo handle the crisis in New York well ? Monday morning quarterbacking always will tell you things that could have been done better. But in a fluid situation that was terrible, he stood like a rock. He was out there, because he cared. Will he reap a political benefit ? Probably. But he did what he was supposed to do which was govern. So did Guliani during 911. That is the reason people know the name of a mayor of New York and not many American Vice Presidents even now. 

We see that now. My state TX was in denial longer than the river named Denial in Egypt. But better late than never, the mask mandate came. It is not an easy decision in a state like TX. Still I wish it had come earlier and much remains to be done, but I can no longer deny they did something, I can only criticize how it is done.

The Mayor of Houston took the state republican convention in-person head on and cancelled it. The TX supreme court agreed with it when the state republican party appealed. The Mayor was democratic, the supreme court of TX is entirely republican. But they did the right thing even against their own party because they cared. That is the difference to me. 

Tweeting to discredit Dr.Fauci, refusing to wear a mask, the FL governor's actions all are about people who do not really care to me.

Edited by Dreamergal
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1 hour ago, EmseB said:

I think part of the issue is that the liability of putting out any sort of national message or policy, especially based on fast moving science for a novel pathogen. Being circumspect in one's  statements about public health is not wrong, but it is going to appear as though agencies and leadership are always playing catch up. But we are still, as a nation, paying for the abrupt messaging that came out on masks in Jan/Feb/Mar that was largely knee jerked to keep a shortage from getting worse. If you think of general ph compliance in the population as a huge ship, it is much easier to make small course corrections than to try to go full reverse or u-turn.

That and the simple fact that a large bureaucracy cannot, by design, be agile and pivot on a dime. Information has to go through layers and layers of approval and study. We are eliminating a lot of those layers in real time when it comes to vaccines and testing, but we won't know the net gain or loss of doing that for a long time. Was it better to develop a lot of things quickly or is the red tape for the greater good?

The bolded.  Absolutely.

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32 minutes ago, Danae said:


 

So we heard back from one the epidemiologists my husband works with who we asked about the positivity rate as predictor.  He says that is what he and his colleagues are watching, but they can’t get their governors to take it seriously. They’re smashing their heads just like we are because when cases start to rise but deaths don’t the political decisions makers and PR people start speculating about how the virus is getting less deadly and treatments are getting better, and younger people are catching it and they have better outcomes, etc, etc.  Then two weeks later deaths start to rise but it takes another week to be sure it’s not a blip and then a week to actually do anything about it and by that time it’s a disaster.  And then when a response is mounted you don’t see the results of it for a month or more so no one believes it’s working.


So the decision makers do have the information, or at least they have people who have the information. They’re just not listening to them.  😞

yes exactly this. It's making me insane, because it's so crazy. 

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17 hours ago, kokotg said:

Georgia famously opened up before ANYONE else (I remember reading Florida's reopening plan at about the same time and being struck by how reasonable it seemed in comparison. Florida!)....and for a long time it managed to hold steady. And now it's going up dramatically but still isn't in as bad shape as Arizona or Florida. I have a couple of theories about it: one of them is that maybe shutting down certain things has a much bigger impact than others; they didn't open bars and nightclubs back up until much later. Maybe bowling alleys (with social distancing) and tattoo parlors and hairdressers with rules in place just don't have nearly the same impact as bars and then later of large events like Memorial Day celebrations. 

I am concerned for Georgia. I used to live there and my FB is full of friends living completely 2019 lives. I see travel ball/ team sports, sleepovers, camps, restaurants packed, vacationers, churches busy as usual, and no masks in group photos. It’s like a whole different world than in my state. It’s blowing my mind because their cases are much worse than our state where everything fun is closed and canceled.

 

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34 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Aaaaaaaaaah!!

Sorry, but that is incredibly frustrating. Thanks for getting in touch with people who know what they are doing. 

I'm going to keep running my "projections." I wonder if we should put it on a website somewhere if it keeps working, to show how predictive it is?? A linear relationship is a ridiculous one to ignore, if it holds up. 

You definitely should!

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17 minutes ago, Paige said:

I am concerned for Georgia. I used to live there and my FB is full of friends living completely 2019 lives. I see travel ball/ team sports, sleepovers, camps, restaurants packed, vacationers, churches busy as usual, and no masks in group photos. It’s like a whole different world than in my state. It’s blowing my mind because their cases are much worse than our state where everything fun is closed and canceled.

 

Georgia is most certainly a mess. I mean, no more than most of the south right now, but yeah.

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1 hour ago, Danae said:


So we heard back from one the epidemiologists my husband works with who we asked about the positivity rate as predictor.  He says that is what he and his colleagues are watching, but they can’t get their governors to take it seriously. They’re smashing their heads just like we are because when cases start to rise but deaths don’t the political decisions makers and PR people start speculating about how the virus is getting less deadly and treatments are getting better, and younger people are catching it and they have better outcomes, etc, etc.  Then two weeks later deaths start to rise but it takes another week to be sure it’s not a blip and then a week to actually do anything about it and by that time it’s a disaster.  And then when a response is mounted you don’t see the results of it for a month or more so no one believes it’s working.


So the decision makers do have the information, or at least they have people who have the information. They’re just not listening to them.  😞

By the way, which governors were they trying to influence? 

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42 minutes ago, square_25 said:

By the way, which governors were they trying to influence? 

Since I don’t have permission to pull his name into it I’d rather not say where he works. And I don’t actually know how many colleagues in different states he’s talked to about it. 
 

I think it’s unfortunate that experts are having to balance trying to inform the public with holding on to any hope of influencing government decision makers.Those two things should not be in conflict in a functioning society.

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The 7-day positivity rate for my state as a whole is just over 5%, but when I looked for info by county, I was surprised that the counties with the highest positivity rate and the highest per capita case rates are all quite rural — there are four with current positivity rates of 12-26% and case rates of more than 120 per 10,000, compared to the tri-county metro area, where positivity is 4.3% and case rates are 30-36 per 10,000. People in rural areas who think they don't need to mask or distance because they assume the danger is mostly in the metro areas may be putting themselves at much greater risk than they realize.

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22 hours ago, square_25 said:

Prediction for tomorrow's deaths on Wordometer using today's numbers is about 450 deaths. (I'm still using my simple positivity formula, although I keep messing it up slightly, lol. I really need to write it down somewhere so something else calculates it for me...) 

 

I’m quoting you because worldometers says today’s deaths are currently at 452 and the day isn’t quite over (45 min to go). 

I’m a little freaked out 😢 and a little in awe. 😆 I’m also curious yet scared to know what your prediction is for tomorrow....

 

 

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12 hours ago, square_25 said:

I’ve generically been wondering why the powers that be know less than I do.

Like, again, I was talking about AC months ago, and it’s not cause I’m prescient — it’s because there were examples of AC spreading it out of Asia, and because I’ve lived in Texas and I KNOW no one is outside in the summer.

Why in the world do I know more than the people in charge?? I’m not even an epidemiologist...

I know right? 
I think they try not to say anything until it’s confirmed. It’s like we all know it’s airborne but it hasn’t been proven yet so they aren’t providing guidance. Mom’s common sense and intuition is going to be ahead of the CDC on most practical prevention measures. 

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On 7/12/2020 at 2:26 PM, square_25 said:

Hmmm, yes, it’s 455. But I don’t expect these predictions to be great day to day... better as predictions of the 7-day average. Using that, though, I can do individual day predictions, but they won’t be really precise. 
 

ETA: Mondays are generally low, so 700+ doesn’t seem right. Also, I'm editing again because I can't read graphs, apparently, and used last Sunday's number instead of last Monday's number, sigh. 

Wordometer's number for today is... 465. Anyone impressed by my predictions yet, lol?? 

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1 hour ago, lovelearnandlive said:

 

I’m quoting you because worldometers says today’s deaths are currently at 452 and the day isn’t quite over (45 min to go). 

I’m a little freaked out 😢 and a little in awe. 😆 I’m also curious yet scared to know what your prediction is for tomorrow....

 

Ah-ha, I see you already noticed these have been pretty good, lol! 

Let me do tomorrow, hmmm. I'm sure they won't always be as good!! 

So, the calculation gives 1036, and I certainly do NOT have that level of precision, but I thought I'd post the actual number my projection spit out just for kicks. ("Around 1050" would probably still be too precise, but that's the idea.) 

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2 hours ago, Corraleno said:

The 7-day positivity rate for my state as a whole is just over 5%, but when I looked for info by county, I was surprised that the counties with the highest positivity rate and the highest per capita case rates are all quite rural — there are four with current positivity rates of 12-26% and case rates of more than 120 per 10,000, compared to the tri-county metro area, where positivity is 4.3% and case rates are 30-36 per 10,000. People in rural areas who think they don't need to mask or distance because they assume the danger is mostly in the metro areas may be putting themselves at much greater risk than they realize.

 

FYI it could also mean a mass testing event at a prison or something like it.

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2 hours ago, square_25 said:

Wordometer's number for today is... 465. Anyone impressed by my predictions yet, lol?? 

 

Yes

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13 hours ago, square_25 said:

Wordometer's number for today is... 465. Anyone impressed by my predictions yet, lol?? 

Totally!! 

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I’ll see if I can get it together to make a Medium post this weekend, if it keeps holding up. Right now, the relationship is striking.

ETA: assuming that’s the right thing to do? I’ve never done it.

Edited by square_25
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The guy I follow on FB posted this today. don't know if it's talking about the same thing you are square-25. Math is not my strong point so may not be the same or similar at all.

 

Post from Dave Blake Jr on FB

 

The sqrt function maps test positivity to scaling of confirmed cases. The blue is an exp alternate. The power law requires that RATIO changes in test pos result in RATIO changes in scale. The exp requires INCREMENT changes in test post result in RATIO scale changes. This fundamental mathematical difference makes one of these the correct choice. Which one is correct, and why? So, if test positivity goes from 4% to 6%, or 6% to 8%, is the scaling change the same ratio, or smaller? #StevensFechnerRedux

No photo description available.

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15 minutes ago, TCB said:

The guy I follow on FB posted this today. don't know if it's talking about the same thing you are square-25. Math is not my strong point so may not be the same or similar at all.

 

Post from Dave Blake Jr on FB

 

The sqrt function maps test positivity to scaling of confirmed cases. The blue is an exp alternate. The power law requires that RATIO changes in test pos result in RATIO changes in scale. The exp requires INCREMENT changes in test post result in RATIO scale changes. This fundamental mathematical difference makes one of these the correct choice. Which one is correct, and why? So, if test positivity goes from 4% to 6%, or 6% to 8%, is the scaling change the same ratio, or smaller? #StevensFechnerRedux

No photo description available.

He seems to be comparing confirmed cases to positivity, so not the same thing, but similar idea.

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Florida's reporting a record number of deaths today :-/. Tuesdays are always high days, of course. 

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I've just started reading this thread, and I think I have had my head in the sand for 2 weeks with where American is heading.  I've been tracking Australia instead, and their outbreak has jumped state lines because a bunch of people did a runner to NSW when they said 'we are closing the border at midnight.' And in the middle of this, I am making plans to send my ds back to America, from small back-end-of-the-world NZ which is hiding and isolating from the big bad world.  Then I just saw an article about health care in American universities being piss poor.  This is just not good, and my ds leaves in 6 weeks, probably for a year as he likely can't get back in due to limited quarantine space.  He just doesn't want to put his life on hold, and he can't take classes in the middle of the night for another year, and he needs to be with his peeps, and he and his flatmates plan to be super careful.  But wow is this a miserable decision.  😞 

Edited by lewelma
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2 minutes ago, lewelma said:

I've just started reading this thread, and I think I have had my head in the sand for 2 weeks with where American is heading.  I've been tracking Australia instead, and their outbreak has jumped state lines because a bunch of people did a runner to NSW when they said 'we are closing the border at midnight.' And in the middle of this, I am making plans to send my ds back to America, from small back-end-of-the-world NZ which is hiding and isolating from the big bad world.  Then I just saw an article about health care in American universities being piss poor.  This is just not good, and my ds leaves in 6 weeks, probably for a year as he likely can't get back in due to limited quarantine space.  He just doesn't want to put his life on hold, and he can't take classes in the middle of the night for another year, and he needs to be with his peeps, and he and his flatmates plan to be super careful.  But wow is this a miserable decision.  😞 

To make you feel a teensy bit better, MA and the northeast are doing pretty well atm, and we have very good healthcare here too.  MA also has good contact tracing in place.  Large swaths of the country,  though, seem hellbent on experiencing what the worst possible scenarios might be... sigh.

I just hope that most universities have some tight quarantining plans for the kids coming in, especially from areas with active outbreaks...  I'd really prefer not to backslide...

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7 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

To make you feel a teensy bit better, MA and the northeast are doing pretty well atm, and we have very good healthcare here too.  MA also has good contact tracing in place.  Large swaths of the country,  though, seem hellbent on experiencing what the worst possible scenarios might be... sigh.

I just hope that most universities have some tight quarantining plans for the kids coming in, especially from areas with active outbreaks...  I'd really prefer not to backslide...

Agreed - I'd say healthcare in MA is some of the best, as far as access. Will he (and his flatmates) be able to avoid public transport? I'd think that, and house parties, are his two biggest risks if his classes are online and he's living in an apartment. 

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We've considered all sorts of numbers, scenarios, concerns.  And we do think it is OK, not great, but OK. The info we are working with: MA's low number of cases. ds with no pre-existing conditions and young. A flat of 5 intelligent kids who have made a pact to be careful. No public transport required. A university that is making decisions based on science. Given where the US is, his situation seems reasonably safe.  It is just that he is likely to not be able to come home.  So if something goes wrong, the backup plan is to go live with my sister in VA.  It is just very very hard to choose to let him go back.

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MIT is being very very careful.  I think it is a huge reputational risk to a science/tech school to end up being a covid hotspot.  So they will: 

quarantine kids for first 2 weeks,

test students all term 2 times per week,

require daily health monitoring on apps,

allow only 25% of students to live on campus,

allow only students living on campus to do in-person classes,

allow only hands-on classes to be in-person,

have a dorm set aside for any cases to be isolated,

require masks inside all dorms unless you are in your room,

extra cleaning of dorm bathrooms

no shared eating -- all carry out from the cafeterias,

all sports/atheletics closed,

all music/arts closed.  

-----

So yes they are opening, but not really.  DS will be in a flat about 10 minutes away from campus, but won't go to campus.  But he will be with his friends and will be in the same time zone as the online classes he will be taking. 

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On 7/12/2020 at 8:39 PM, square_25 said:

I think it's not really "when someone opens up" and more "when someone opens up indoor spaces, preferably with AC." I always thought the South was going to have more trouble, since they were going to be forced into the AC in the summer. 

I think it's also how soon and how strictly they closed down. Other states closed before Florida for example, and our lockdown was really more of a suggestion with a few exceptions like bars and gyms. Once the spread began in a number of southern states they tried to put the genie back in the bottle. It was not only impossible to get the genie in, but they had no plans to cap the bottle even if they did.

 

On 7/13/2020 at 11:32 AM, Dreamergal said:

Thankfully this should put a stop to the nonsense on the insistence of around 6000 person in-party state republican convention. Short version, TX supreme court put a kibosh on this. Kudos to the Houston Mayor for starting the process.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/13/texas-supreme-court-gop-convention/

Having an in-person convention with thousands of potential non-mask wearers despite the all mask mandate is a state with a pandemic raging with all that it entails is something I have no words for. I have heard of Nero fiddling while Rome burnt, I can't believe we are seeing it in America of 2020 in all levels of leadership. 

And yet, the national convention in Jacksonville is still on. More and more top name Republicans are saying they won't attend and there's some talk now of moving it to outdoors. In August. In Florida. Have any of these convention planners ever been outdoors in August in Florida? If the heat and humidity doesn't get them the daily thunderstorms (with a LOT of lightning) will.

Edited by Lady Florida.
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4 minutes ago, Lady Florida. said:

 

I think it's also how soon and how strictly they closed down. Other states closed before Florida for example, and our lockdown was really more of a suggestion with a few exceptions like bars and gyms. Once the spread began in a number of southern states they tried to put the genie back in the bottle. It was not only impossible to get the genie in, but they had no plans to cap the bottle even if they did.

 

And yet, the national convention in Jacksonville is still on. More and more top name Republicans are saying they won't attend and there's some talk now of moving it to outdoors. In August. In Florida. Have any of these convention planners ever been outdoors in August in Florida? If the heat and humidity doesn't get them the daily thunderstorms (with a LOT of lightning) will.

oh wow. Outdoor event, with AV equipment, in August, in Florida?!?! Ha!

The only outdoor event Ive gone to in Florida in the summer was my best friend's wedding on the beach, and even then it was miserable. But at least it was a short, less than 30 minute ceremony. And no one wore suits or anything. I think the groom was in shorts. 

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5 minutes ago, Lady Florida. said:

 

And yet, the national convention in Jacksonville is still on. More and more top name Republicans are saying they won't attend and there's some talk now of moving it to outdoors. In August. In Florida. Have any of these convention planners ever been outdoors in August in Florida? If the heat and humidity doesn't get them the daily thunderstorms (with a LOT of lightning) will.

In the case of Houston, the Democrat mayor started the ball rolling by banning the republican state convention. They appealed to a local judge who rejected it, I am not sure what party he belonged to. They then appealed to the TX supreme court which is entirely republican. In this case, people from both parties came together to stop the nonsense and put the health of public and common sense above petty sentiments like political pandering and their own party. Someone must do it in FL too. 

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2 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

In the case of Houston, the Democrat mayor started the ball rolling by banning the republican state convention. They appealed to a local judge who rejected it, I am not sure what party he belonged to. They then appealed to the TX supreme court which is entirely republican. In this case, people from both parties came together to stop the nonsense and put the health of public and common sense above petty sentiments like political pandering and their own party. Someone must do it in FL too. 

Our governor is um...never going to go against what the president wants. I'll leave it at that. 

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12 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Our governor is um...never going to go against what the president wants. I'll leave it at that. 

And neither will the Jacksonville mayor, who campaigned for his city to host. Hopefully lawsuits like these (and hopefully more) will stop it. If it's going to go to court though like it did in Texas, it needs to move quickly.

https://www.firstcoastnews.com/article/news/politics/rnc/downtown-residents-business-owners-file-lawsuit-against-city-hall-president-trump-campaign-to-block-rnc-from-coming-to-jacksonville/77-c4769a5d-d634-4477-af50-63c91240d3df

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22 hours ago, Corraleno said:

The 7-day positivity rate for my state as a whole is just over 5%, but when I looked for info by county, I was surprised that the counties with the highest positivity rate and the highest per capita case rates are all quite rural — there are four with current positivity rates of 12-26% and case rates of more than 120 per 10,000, compared to the tri-county metro area, where positivity is 4.3% and case rates are 30-36 per 10,000. People in rural areas who think they don't need to mask or distance because they assume the danger is mostly in the metro areas may be putting themselves at much greater risk than they realize.

There could also be a bit more filtering going on.  Is testing harder to access in the rural areas?  People may be more likely to only seek testing if they’re really feeling ill versus cities where testing is closer by?

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1 hour ago, lewelma said:

We've considered all sorts of numbers, scenarios, concerns.  And we do think it is OK, not great, but OK. The info we are working with: MA's low number of cases. ds with no pre-existing conditions and young. A flat of 5 intelligent kids who have made a pact to be careful. No public transport required. A university that is making decisions based on science. Given where the US is, his situation seems reasonably safe.  It is just that he is likely to not be able to come home.  So if something goes wrong, the backup plan is to go live with my sister in VA.  It is just very very hard to choose to let him go back.

 

I am a parent now with smaller children and I absolutely get your concern. But if I may,  I would like to give a perspective of a student too because I was that once and I have never forgotten that feeling of yearning, working so hard and finally achieving something. Mine was just a state school, but it would have devastated me. I would still make the same decision if I was a student today in the midst of a pandemic and browbeat my parents to send me. 

I don't know how your son is feeling nor can I speak for him. But your son is MIT, that is such an achievement. I can't imagine him losing a year of that, even a gap year. So I am glad you are sending him despite your fears. Knowing you will support him and your love will make him be extra careful, I can promise that because I took really good care of myself for I knew it would devastate my parents if anything happened to me. I hope I gave you some reassurance. Good luck ! You seemed to have raised a fantastic and brave boy. 

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55 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

 

I am a parent now with smaller children and I absolutely get your concern. But if I may,  I would like to give a perspective of a student too because I was that once and I have never forgotten that feeling of yearning, working so hard and finally achieving something. Mine was just a state school, but it would have devastated me. I would still make the same decision if I was a student today in the midst of a pandemic and browbeat my parents to send me. 

I don't know how your son is feeling nor can I speak for him. But your son is MIT, that is such an achievement. I can't imagine him losing a year of that, even a gap year. So I am glad you are sending him despite your fears. Knowing you will support him and your love will make him be extra careful, I can promise that because I took really good care of myself for I knew it would devastate my parents if anything happened to me. I hope I gave you some reassurance. Good luck ! You seemed to have raised a fantastic and brave boy. 

Thanks for this.

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23 hours ago, Corraleno said:

The 7-day positivity rate for my state as a whole is just over 5%, but when I looked for info by county, I was surprised that the counties with the highest positivity rate and the highest per capita case rates are all quite rural — there are four with current positivity rates of 12-26% and case rates of more than 120 per 10,000, compared to the tri-county metro area, where positivity is 4.3% and case rates are 30-36 per 10,000. People in rural areas who think they don't need to mask or distance because they assume the danger is mostly in the metro areas may be putting themselves at much greater risk than they realize.

Some of that is farm workers. Non farm workers may feel like they're separated enough for safety ("I don't live in an apartment with 10 people, therefore I will be fine").

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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

There could also be a bit more filtering going on.  Is testing harder to access in the rural areas?  People may be more likely to only seek testing if they’re really feeling ill versus cities where testing is closer by?

 

IME from rural area people are less likely to try to get tested even if feeling ill, because it takes a drive to city, and how is that going to work while feeling ill especially if too ill to drive oneself.  Rural people very Likely to stay home unless feeling so sick ambulance might be needed.  So high rural rates become even more significant in view of the typical rural, far from medical care, situation.  However, agricultural work may be affecting testing and rates, and Maybe some agricultural areas have ways to get tests brought in. Also rural Native American areas may affect results. 

Edited by Pen

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re university protocols

3 hours ago, lewelma said:

MIT is being very very careful.  I think it is a huge reputational risk to a science/tech school to end up being a covid hotspot.  So they will: 

quarantine kids for first 2 weeks,

test students all term 2 times per week,

require daily health monitoring on apps,

allow only 25% of students to live on campus,

allow only students living on campus to do in-person classes,

allow only hands-on classes to be in-person,

have a dorm set aside for any cases to be isolated,

require masks inside all dorms unless you are in your room,

extra cleaning of dorm bathrooms

no shared eating -- all carry out from the cafeterias,

all sports/atheletics closed,

all music/arts closed.  

-----

So yes they are opening, but not really.  DS will be in a flat about 10 minutes away from campus, but won't go to campus.  But he will be with his friends and will be in the same time zone as the online classes he will be taking. 

That is very similar to the Carnegie Mellon protocols as well. 

Access to adequate testing really does make a huge difference.

And... I'm still terrified at my kid's plan to return, and I'm only 7 hours' drive away. I can't imagine how hard it must be to put a kid on a US-bound plane right now.

I do agree with @Matryoshka that Boston is about the COVID-safest place in America right now.

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7 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

re university protocols

That is very similar to the Carnegie Mellon protocols as well. 

Access to adequate testing really does make a huge difference.

And... I'm still terrified at my kid's plan to return, and I'm only 7 hours' drive away. I can't imagine how hard it must be to put a kid on a US-bound plane right now.

I do agree with @Matryoshka that Boston is about the COVID-safest place in America right now.

Just heard today that a bunch of the kids at my dd’s university, who have been there over the summer fulfilling residency requirements, have Covid right now.

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5 minutes ago, TCB said:

Just heard today that a bunch of the kids at my dd’s university, who have been there over the summer fulfilling residency requirements, have Covid right now.

Well, that's stressful :-/. Are they doing OK? 

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23 hours ago, square_25 said:

Ah-ha, I see you already noticed these have been pretty good, lol! 

Let me do tomorrow, hmmm. I'm sure they won't always be as good!! 

So, the calculation gives 1036, and I certainly do NOT have that level of precision, but I thought I'd post the actual number my projection spit out just for kicks. ("Around 1050" would probably still be too precise, but that's the idea.) 

This time I'm definitely too high... the Worldometer number was 935. Interesting. 

I'm going to keep trying to predict things and see what happens. Let's see if the deaths actually stabilize, which would rather blow a hole in my correlation ;-). 

Current prediction for tomorrow is 1079, which does seem rather high, since usually Tuesdays are the worst days. However, I may as well report predictions honestly and be wrong if I am! I'm now very curious if this will hold up or not. 

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14 minutes ago, square_25 said:

This time I'm definitely too high... the Worldometer number was 935. Interesting. 

I'm going to keep trying to predict things and see what happens. Let's see if the deaths actually stabilize, which would rather blow a hole in my correlation ;-). 

Current prediction for tomorrow is 1079, which does seem rather high, since usually Tuesdays are the worst days. However, I may as well report predictions honestly and be wrong if I am! I'm now very curious if this will hold up or not. 

 

Yes, please keep posting! After several more days we can start judging the overall accuracy of our WTM Covid Oracle. 😉😉

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52 minutes ago, lovelearnandlive said:

 

Yes, please keep posting! After several more days we can start judging the overall accuracy of our WTM Covid Oracle. 😉😉

I'd guess the WTM COVID Oracle will do as well as any oracles tend to do, when judged in the harsh light of day ;-). I'm also curious, though! 

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"Arizona's Current COVID-19 Surge Could Last Through December, New Model Shows"

Excerpt from article:

...

The study was done by three mathematics experts — two from Arizona, one from Florida — and includes a number of important findings. Mask mandates and a national lockdown earlier on could have saved tens of thousands of lives, the study concludes, and stronger measures in Arizona and Florida would have prevented the current surges in those states.

It estimates that unless leaders enact stricter control measures in Arizona, the surge may slow, but will go on until it plateaus, possibly this December.

...

Their latest mathematical model of COVID-19 transmission patterns sifts through the data behind "non-pharmaceutical interventions" like social-distancing, face masks, virus testing, and contact-tracing. As the 35-page paper explains, it starts with a classic Kermack-McKendrick model. It adds in known or estimated data about symptomatic and asymptomatic spread, people recovered but not tested, people hospitalized or put in intensive care, and other factors. Confirmed COVID-19 deaths for the pre-lockdown and lockdown periods were also added from the studied geographical areas of Arizona, Florida, New York, and the United States.

Without a slower reopening and more widespread mask-wearing in Arizona than yet seen, the state's second wave will be "devastating," the study warns. As the model shows, it appears to have begun.

---------------------------

I believe these are the same researchers (or part of the group of researchers) who said that any re-opening before the end of May would cause exponential growth of case in AZ. The governor decided to reopen beginning of May and also told the researchers at ASU basically thank you for the models that they were making but they were no longer needed.

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On 7/14/2020 at 9:14 PM, square_25 said:

This time I'm definitely too high... the Worldometer number was 935. Interesting. 

I'm going to keep trying to predict things and see what happens. Let's see if the deaths actually stabilize, which would rather blow a hole in my correlation ;-). 

Current prediction for tomorrow is 1079, which does seem rather high, since usually Tuesdays are the worst days. However, I may as well report predictions honestly and be wrong if I am! I'm now very curious if this will hold up or not. 

997 today, which means my predictions are too high this week. (And the COVID Tracking Project numbers have been a bunch lower, which I don't quite understand, but OK.) 

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So, the next prediction is 1260, which seems wildly unlikely, lol, and has to do with the average positivity rate 2 weeks ago jumping. Basically an artifact of a curve that's not totally smooth. 

I do expect that even if this formula works, it will work much better for weekly averages than it will for the actual daily numbers. But it's interesting to try to predict those :-). 

Edited by square_25
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3 hours ago, square_25 said:

So, the next prediction is 1260, which seems wildly unlikely, lol, and has to do with the average positivity rate 2 weeks ago jumping. Basically an artifact of a curve that's not totally smooth. 

I do expect that even if this formula works, it will work much better for weekly averages than it will for the actual daily numbers. But it's interesting to try to predict those :-). 

 

They are too high, but not terribly so. And I’m glad that the numbers are coming in lower!

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3 hours ago, square_25 said:

So, the next prediction is 1260, which seems wildly unlikely, lol, and has to do with the average positivity rate 2 weeks ago jumping. Basically an artifact of a curve that's not totally smooth. 

I do expect that even if this formula works, it will work much better for weekly averages than it will for the actual daily numbers. But it's interesting to try to predict those :-). 

What happens if you use the positivity rate from 3 weeks ago instead of 2? Or use the positivity rate from 2 weeks ago to predict next week's average?

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3 hours ago, square_25 said:

So, the next prediction is 1260, which seems wildly unlikely, lol, and has to do with the average positivity rate 2 weeks ago jumping. Basically an artifact of a curve that's not totally smooth. 

I do expect that even if this formula works, it will work much better for weekly averages than it will for the actual daily numbers. But it's interesting to try to predict those :-). 

Looks like 997 for today on worldometer.  However the deaths sometimes have a delay before reporting so I would think that wouldn’t be accurate yet.

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