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Just now, EmseB said:

Well, AFAIK, the local government was encouraging people to go out and congregate on Chinese NY(?) because they didn't think the virus could have come from China before flights were shut down, or from Europe? Idk, but there is a now infamous tweet out there from an NYC health official encouraging gatherings.

Oh, sure, they were told to go to Chinatown... probably the safest place to be at the time, lol. They did encourage gatherings in February, because they had no clue it was there. Everyone was pretty oblivious. 

Just now, EmseB said:

We in Cali did have the airport crush and grocery crush, and local officials telling people to go out and celebrate. But less density and mass transit, I suppose. And less of an international hub despite Seattle, SF, and LA. And I think we closed sooner.

You just had fewer cases. That's all there is to it. You can calculate the number of cases by March 1st and it was way more in NY. 

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8 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh, sure, they were told to go to Chinatown... probably the safest place to be at the time, lol. They did encourage gatherings in February, because they had no clue it was there. Everyone was pretty oblivious. 

You just had fewer cases. That's all there is to it. You can calculate the number of cases by March 1st and it was way more in NY. 

Well by March, yes, but I'm talking in the lead up to that. I was uneasy here as soon as the travel ban went into effect because I knew many flights come into to SFO/OAK/LAX from China daily, not to mention the secondary spread. I think the Whuan>Italy>NYC spread was somehow something that no one was considering until it was too late.

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1 minute ago, EmseB said:

Well by March, yes, but I'm talking in the lead up to that. I was uneasy here as soon as the travel ban went into effect because I knew many flights come into to SFO/OAK/LAX from China daily, not to mention the secondary spread. I think the Whuan>Italy>NYC spread was somehow something that no one was considering until it was too late.

Yeah, they should have probably figured it was here in February. But they didn't. People have a lot of inertia :-/. 

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6 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yeah, they should have probably figured it was here in February. But they didn't. People have a lot of inertia :-/. 

It feels like one thing globally we should learn from this (If we open borders again) is that as soon as one country notices a new virus or disease occurring we need to work really hard at developing a reliable test and establishing a sentinel testing program instead of focusing purely on recent arrivals from that country.

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1 minute ago, Ausmumof3 said:

It feels like one thing globally we should learn from this (If we open borders again) is that as soon as one country notices a new virus or disease occurring we need to work really hard at developing a reliable test and establishing a sentinel testing program instead of focusing purely on recent arrivals from that country.

I'm pretty sure we knew that already. I guess we shouldn't lose the knowledge again? 

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Also, I have heard nothing in the news about CO...didn't they open up around the same time as FL? More googling. Idk why I'm making my eyes cross with data I barely understand, but here is my Sunday evening.

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1 minute ago, EmseB said:

Also, I have heard nothing in the news about CO...didn't they open up around the same time as FL? More googling. Idk why I'm making my eyes cross with data I barely understand, but here is my Sunday evening.

I think it's not really "when someone opens up" and more "when someone opens up indoor spaces, preferably with AC." I always thought the South was going to have more trouble, since they were going to be forced into the AC in the summer. 

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3 minutes ago, EmseB said:

Also, I have heard nothing in the news about CO...didn't they open up around the same time as FL? More googling. Idk why I'm making my eyes cross with data I barely understand, but here is my Sunday evening.

I think there’s also a certain element of luck and also local culture.  I mean here vic have had stricter restrictions than anywhere else and they still have the outbreak.  Of course population density is a factor and we did have really good test and trace and we also have less international travellers here than Melbourne.  
 

also is Colorado where Aspen is?  I can’t remember but I think that’s where some of our cases came from here so maybe they had an earlier outbreak which has somewhat dampened things for a second outbreak.  I do think there seems to be something meaning herd immunity happens at a lower percentage than expected.

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4 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I think it's not really "when someone opens up" and more "when someone opens up indoor spaces, preferably with AC." I always thought the South was going to have more trouble, since they were going to be forced into the AC in the summer. 

My gym is opening up tomorrow, and they aren't using fans (ceilings or the ones on the treads), and they're opening a door to outside, but they still will have the ac on.  I'm not going back soon, but I have asked if their ac is bringing in air from outside or just recirculating, and if there's any kind of filter on it and... crickets.  Don't know that I'll be comfortable returning until I can get a straight answer...

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Just now, Matryoshka said:

My gym is opening up tomorrow, and they aren't using fans (ceilings or the ones on the treads), and they're opening a door to outside, but they still will have the ac on.  I'm not going back soon, but I have asked if their ac is bringing in air from outside or just recirculating, and if there's any kind of filter on it and... crickets.  Don't know that I'll be comfortable returning until I can get a straight answer...

Yeah, I'd stay out of gyms right now, frankly. 

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9 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yeah, I'd stay out of gyms right now, frankly. 

But florida opened them up full capacity with no masks and we're doing great! Wait...no...that's not right...sigh. 

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23 hours ago, square_25 said:

Prediction for tomorrow, continuing to use the most basic model ever, seems to be around 400. (Editing because I don’t know how I messed this calculation up, but I did.)

Ah-ha, Worldometer had slightly different numbers, equal to 380. So very close. 

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33 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

But florida opened them up full capacity with no masks and we're doing great! Wait...no...that's not right...sigh. 

Yeah, but that's the fault of the protesters,  The gym opening was a coincidence . . . or something like that.   

 

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Just now, CuriousMomof3 said:

Yeah, but that's the fault of the protesters,  The gym opening was a coincidence . . . or something like that.   

 

Yes, and it's just totally random that NY didn't have protester-related spikes, as did everyone else who didn't open restaurants and bars! 

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5 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Ah-ha, Worldometer had slightly different numbers, equal to 380. So very close. 

 

AZ is kinda freaking me out... their weekend numbers are usually pretty low and today they posted over 80. 

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1 minute ago, lovelearnandlive said:

AZ is kinda freaking me out... their weekend numbers are usually pretty low and today they posted over 80. 

Arizona is in pretty serious trouble. Their positivity rate is also ridiculously high and going up. 

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@EmseB -- by the way, I checked on OpenTable, and Colorado definitely didn't have active restaurants anywhere near as early as the places spiking now. So that's data. I don't remember what they did about gyms/bars, but I think it should be pretty indicative... we should check what their phases were and when. 

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Georgia famously opened up before ANYONE else (I remember reading Florida's reopening plan at about the same time and being struck by how reasonable it seemed in comparison. Florida!)....and for a long time it managed to hold steady. And now it's going up dramatically but still isn't in as bad shape as Arizona or Florida. I have a couple of theories about it: one of them is that maybe shutting down certain things has a much bigger impact than others; they didn't open bars and nightclubs back up until much later. Maybe bowling alleys (with social distancing) and tattoo parlors and hairdressers with rules in place just don't have nearly the same impact as bars and then later of large events like Memorial Day celebrations. 

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Prediction for tomorrow's deaths on Wordometer using today's numbers is about 450 deaths. (I'm still using my simple positivity formula, although I keep messing it up slightly, lol. I really need to write it down somewhere so something else calculates it for me...) 

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2 minutes ago, kokotg said:

Georgia famously opened up before ANYONE else (I remember reading Florida's reopening plan at about the same time and being struck by how reasonable it seemed in comparison. Florida!)....and for a long time it managed to hold steady. And now it's going up dramatically but still isn't in as bad shape as Arizona or Florida. I have a couple of theories about it: one of them is that maybe shutting down certain things has a much bigger impact than others; they didn't open bars and nightclubs back up until much later. Maybe bowling alleys (with social distancing) and tattoo parlors and hairdressers with rules in place just don't have nearly the same impact as bars and then later of large events like Memorial Day celebrations. 

Georgia's restaurants were basically constantly less full than Florida's. And yes, bars and nightclubs are just a bad idea. 

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1 hour ago, Ktgrok said:

But florida opened them up full capacity with no masks and we're doing great! Wait...no...that's not right...sigh. 

Cases are pretty low here, and they are distancing (14 feet apart in gyms), but unfiltered and/or recirculated a/c freaks me out at this point.

I saw this linked here today (this thread? another one?) - and I hope this thing gets into production and installed everywhere stat!  It won't make it so we can't distance, but maybe with distancing we can be inside together more safely?... https://uh.edu/news-events/stories/july-2020/07072020ren-coronavirus-filter.php

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15 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

Cases are pretty low here, and they are distancing (14 feet apart in gyms), but unfiltered and/or recirculated a/c freaks me out at this point.

I saw this linked here today (this thread? another one?) - and I hope this thing gets into production and installed everywhere stat!  It won't make it so we can't distance, but maybe with distancing we can be inside together more safely?... https://uh.edu/news-events/stories/july-2020/07072020ren-coronavirus-filter.php

yeah...we didn't have any actual safety rules. We just said you had to provide hand sanitizer for people to use, and provide disinfectant for them to wipe down equipment. Note, no rules requiring people USE it, just gyms had to provide it. So..yeah. 

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33 minutes ago, Matryoshka said:

Cases are pretty low here, and they are distancing (14 feet apart in gyms), but unfiltered and/or recirculated a/c freaks me out at this point.

I saw this linked here today (this thread? another one?) - and I hope this thing gets into production and installed everywhere stat!  It won't make it so we can't distance, but maybe with distancing we can be inside together more safely?... https://uh.edu/news-events/stories/july-2020/07072020ren-coronavirus-filter.php

It's really a good idea! 

They were also talking about HEPA filters filtering things out of the air, right? 

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29 minutes ago, square_25 said:

It's really a good idea! 

They were also talking about HEPA filters filtering things out of the air, right? 

There are also UV filters you can put in your vents. 

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3 hours ago, square_25 said:

Georgia's restaurants were basically constantly less full than Florida's. And yes, bars and nightclubs are just a bad idea. 

Our nightclubs opened for one day and got  promptly shut again after photos did the rounds of packed night clubs and dancing that was way outside the Covid safe plans. And there is an outbreak linked to a bar in NSW where cases are generally quite low now.

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2 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

There are also UV filters you can put in your vents. 

 

These are what they have installed at DS's university. They already had them, but went through and replaced/upgraded every single one. Plus the professors who give music lessons were given special filters to have running in their rooms.

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10 hours ago, square_25 said:

Yes, and it's just totally random that NY didn't have protester-related spikes, as did everyone else who didn't open restaurants and bars! 

And watching here in MN... 6.5 weeks after protest began numbers still held steady. 4 weeks after (indoor) bar and dining opened, cases are up for the 4th straight day. It's becoming ridiculous how obvious this is - bars/clubs have to stay shut down. 

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9 minutes ago, TracyP said:

And watching here in MN... 6.5 weeks after protest began numbers still held steady. 4 weeks after (indoor) bar and dining opened, cases are up for the 4th straight day. It's becoming ridiculous how obvious this is - bars/clubs have to stay shut down. 

I’ve been saying this for months, lol — the correlations with OpenTable data are extremely strong. 

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3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I’ve been saying this for months, lol — the correlations with OpenTable data are extremely strong. 

It really makes you wonder why the powers that be have a hard time wrapping their heads around this... Here, I think (hope) bars will close by the end of the week. The governor has been threatening for the last 2 weeks "start behaving in bars or we're going to have to close them again." Yeah, that's not happening.🙄

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21 minutes ago, TracyP said:

It really makes you wonder why the powers that be have a hard time wrapping their heads around this... Here, I think (hope) bars will close by the end of the week. The governor has been threatening for the last 2 weeks "start behaving in bars or we're going to have to close them again." Yeah, that's not happening.🙄

Bars are where people DRINK!! What kind of behavior are you expecting??

And I say that as someone who does go to a bar when DH and I go out... but come on.

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22 minutes ago, TracyP said:

It really makes you wonder why the powers that be have a hard time wrapping their heads around this... Here, I think (hope) bars will close by the end of the week. The governor has been threatening for the last 2 weeks "start behaving in bars or we're going to have to close them again." Yeah, that's not happening.🙄

I’ve generically been wondering why the powers that be know less than I do.

Like, again, I was talking about AC months ago, and it’s not cause I’m prescient — it’s because there were examples of AC spreading it out of Asia, and because I’ve lived in Texas and I KNOW no one is outside in the summer.

Why in the world do I know more than the people in charge?? I’m not even an epidemiologist...

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31 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I’ve generically been wondering why the powers that be know less than I do.

Like, again, I was talking about AC months ago, and it’s not cause I’m prescient — it’s because there were examples of AC spreading it out of Asia, and because I’ve lived in Texas and I KNOW no one is outside in the summer.

Why in the world do I know more than the people in charge?? I’m not even an epidemiologist...

Yup. 

It's insane. 

Heck, we all here were talking about some of this stuff before Fauci was acknowledging it! 

It's true, no one researches better than a worried mom, I guess. 

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And yeah, what idiots thought people would social distance in a bar? I mean, had they EVER been to a bar or club? EVER? Loud music, so you have to yell in each other's faces to be heard, alcohol screwing with your inhibitions, not to mention even the rare person trying to follow the rules is going to lose their ability to judge distance well after a few drinks. Then add in hook ups, and yeah. Idiots. 

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On 7/10/2020 at 6:50 PM, SeaConquest said:

Yes, things are horrifically unequal throughout the state. In San Diego, we had been doing fairly well until the tourists from AZ and NV started invading us for the summer. But, Imperial, Riverside, and San Bernardino Counties next door have been hit horrifically. LA County is getting hit hard because they just have so many poor folks. I won't even comment on OC. <Eye roll>

Same could be said going the other way. Traffic is usually backed up going to CA on Sunday. Just sayin. 🙂

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2 hours ago, square_25 said:

I’ve generically been wondering why the powers that be know less than I do.

Like, again, I was talking about AC months ago, and it’s not cause I’m prescient — it’s because there were examples of AC spreading it out of Asia, and because I’ve lived in Texas and I KNOW no one is outside in the summer.

Why in the world do I know more than the people in charge?? I’m not even an epidemiologist...

I know!! It's kinda frightening....

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2 hours ago, square_25 said:

I’ve generically been wondering why the powers that be know less than I do.

Like, again, I was talking about AC months ago, and it’s not cause I’m prescient — it’s because there were examples of AC spreading it out of Asia, and because I’ve lived in Texas and I KNOW no one is outside in the summer.

Why in the world do I know more than the people in charge?? I’m not even an epidemiologist...

I have thought that for months that the hive is a smarter on this topic than the people in charge.   I wish you all were the ones in control of mandates, regulations,  and shutdowns.

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Thankfully this should put a stop to the nonsense on the insistence of around 6000 person in-party state republican convention. Short version, TX supreme court put a kibosh on this. Kudos to the Houston Mayor for starting the process.

https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/13/texas-supreme-court-gop-convention/

Having an in-person convention with thousands of potential non-mask wearers despite the all mask mandate is a state with a pandemic raging with all that it entails is something I have no words for. I have heard of Nero fiddling while Rome burnt, I can't believe we are seeing it in America of 2020 in all levels of leadership. 

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3 hours ago, square_25 said:

I’ve generically been wondering why the powers that be know less than I do.

Like, again, I was talking about AC months ago, and it’s not cause I’m prescient — it’s because there were examples of AC spreading it out of Asia, and because I’ve lived in Texas and I KNOW no one is outside in the summer.

Why in the world do I know more than the people in charge?? I’m not even an epidemiologist...

Oh, they know. They just don't care because they are focused on re-election. 

I want to give the benefit of doubt, but after a point you have to use the Sherlock Holmes rule of elimination and accept the truth staring you in the face. 

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34 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

Oh, they know. They just don't care because they are focused on re-election. 

I want to give the benefit of doubt, but after a point you have to use the Sherlock Holmes rule of elimination and accept the truth staring you in the face. 

Well, true for some people, but not for lots of others. People just aren't as on top of things as I wish. 

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re why does this board appear to be better informed than They are

1 hour ago, mommyoffive said:

I have thought that for months that the hive is a smarter on this topic than the people in charge.   I wish you all were the ones in control of mandates, regulations,  and shutdowns.

 

54 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

Oh, they know. They just don't care because they are focused on re-election. 

I want to give the benefit of doubt, but after a point you have to use the Sherlock Holmes rule of elimination and accept the truth staring you in the face. 

 

19 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Well, true for some people, but not for lots of others. People just aren't as on top of things as I wish. 

 

My take is that American culture is more apt than other cultures to conflate "what I wish were true" with "reality."  Sometimes that's a strength, other times a weakness.  Turns out in a global pandemic it's a weakness.

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7 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

My take is that American culture is more apt than other cultures to conflate "what I wish were true" with "reality."  Sometimes that's a strength, other times a weakness.  Turns out in a global pandemic it's a weakness.

Huh, you think? I would have thought that was a universal human quality... but then I'd expert scientists to act less like that. 

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33 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Well, true for some people, but not for lots of others. People just aren't as on top of things as I wish. 

I think part of the issue is that the liability of putting out any sort of national message or policy, especially based on fast moving science for a novel pathogen. Being circumspect in one's  statements about public health is not wrong, but it is going to appear as though agencies and leadership are always playing catch up. But we are still, as a nation, paying for the abrupt messaging that came out on masks in Jan/Feb/Mar that was largely knee jerked to keep a shortage from getting worse. If you think of general ph compliance in the population as a huge ship, it is much easier to make small course corrections than to try to go full reverse or u-turn.

That and the simple fact that a large bureaucracy cannot, by design, be agile and pivot on a dime. Information has to go through layers and layers of approval and study. We are eliminating a lot of those layers in real time when it comes to vaccines and testing, but we won't know the net gain or loss of doing that for a long time. Was it better to develop a lot of things quickly or is the red tape for the greater good?

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People on a message board also don’t have to deal with consequences if we’re wrong.  We can speak decisively about what the country should do because our opinions don’t have much weight.  

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re wishful thinking

11 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Huh, you think? I would have thought that was a universal human quality... but then I'd expert scientists to act less like that. 

To a degree, sure. 

But I think some cultures are more pessimistic than others (even within the US, American Jews are much more pessimistic than majority culture, and it is my impression that that also holds for black Americans); some cultures are more willing to delay gratification than others (it is my experience that recent immigrants are more willing to do this than majority American culture); some cultures are more willing than others to make personal sacrifices on behalf of "the community" or on behalf of perfect strangers than others; some cultures place higher regard in science and other forms of expertise than others. 

If there are cultural differences on all those parameters (and I believe there are)... why wouldn't there be on wishful thinking?

 

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41 minutes ago, EmseB said:

Was it better to develop a lot of things quickly or is the red tape for the greater good?

I mean, yes, red tape is there for a reason. 

But there was ample reason to cut the red tape back in January and February. 

42 minutes ago, EmseB said:

But we are still, as a nation, paying for the abrupt messaging that came out on masks in Jan/Feb/Mar that was largely knee jerked to keep a shortage from getting worse.

There should have been preparations for the shortage, and it was totally nonsensical that there wasn't -- this was one of the things we knew from experience. I actually think the messaging on masks was off due to cultural distaste as much as anything else. Now, I think the cultural distaste resulted in people interpreting the evidence in a certain way, and when the evidence got strong enough, people who interested in evidence reversed themselves. But I think people were unwilling to take weaker evidence because they didn't like the idea of everyone masking up. 

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37 minutes ago, Pam in CT said:

re wishful thinking

To a degree, sure. 

But I think some cultures are more pessimistic than others (even within the US, American Jews are much more pessimistic than majority culture, and it is my impression that that also holds for black Americans); some cultures are more willing to delay gratification than others (it is my experience that recent immigrants are more willing to do this than majority American culture); some cultures are more willing than others to make personal sacrifices on behalf of "the community" or on behalf of perfect strangers than others; some cultures place higher regard in science and other forms of expertise than others. 

If there are cultural differences on all those parameters (and I believe there are)... why wouldn't there be on wishful thinking?

Hmmmm, you may be right, I don't know. But having seen a lot of cultural differences, I've seen wishful thinking pretty much across the board. I think you have to train yourself not to do that. And you have to be comfortable with uncertainty. I thought this article was pretty good: 

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/07/role-cognitive-dissonance-pandemic/614074/

I absolutely understand what this article means, because I do have a tendency to double down when I'm wrong. Sometimes it's kind of ridiculous, because I'll do something a second time just to prove myself that the first time wasn't REALLY a problem, and that can backfire spectacularly. (For example, cleaning our stainless steel fridge with the rough side of a sponge a long time ago, sigh.) I think I mostly escape the negative consequences of that because 

a) I'm trained to be aware of it 

and 

b) I'm naturally introspective and I come back to things, and you can only fool yourself so many times before you get uncomfortable. 

But it's a real issue. 

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47 minutes ago, Danae said:

People on a message board also don’t have to deal with consequences if we’re wrong.  We can speak decisively about what the country should do because our opinions don’t have much weight.  

Yes, and I absolutely see that. I agree decisions are harder than mouthing off, and those of us not in power sometimes don't understand how difficult it is to balance things. 

I just mean information, though. It often seems to me like people have less information than me. And yes, I'm very good at integrating information, that's one of my skills, but it makes me uncomfortable when the people in charge don't even seem to have synthesized the things I have. 

That doesn't mean I'd know what to DO. But I feel like I'd at least know what to worry about. 

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As a random example, it was totally obvious the IHME model was wrong. You didn't need to know much to know it was wrong. So it shouldn't have been used for decision-making... but it was. It was silly. 

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41 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yes, and I absolutely see that. I agree decisions are harder than mouthing off, and those of us not in power sometimes don't understand how difficult it is to balance things. 

I just mean information, though. It often seems to me like people have less information than me. And yes, I'm very good at integrating information, that's one of my skills, but it makes me uncomfortable when the people in charge don't even seem to have synthesized the things I have. 

That doesn't mean I'd know what to DO. But I feel like I'd at least know what to worry about. 


 

So we heard back from one the epidemiologists my husband works with who we asked about the positivity rate as predictor.  He says that is what he and his colleagues are watching, but they can’t get their governors to take it seriously. They’re smashing their heads just like we are because when cases start to rise but deaths don’t the political decisions makers and PR people start speculating about how the virus is getting less deadly and treatments are getting better, and younger people are catching it and they have better outcomes, etc, etc.  Then two weeks later deaths start to rise but it takes another week to be sure it’s not a blip and then a week to actually do anything about it and by that time it’s a disaster.  And then when a response is mounted you don’t see the results of it for a month or more so no one believes it’s working.


So the decision makers do have the information, or at least they have people who have the information. They’re just not listening to them.  😞

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2 minutes ago, Danae said:

So we heard back from one the epidemiologists my husband works with who we asked about the positivity rate as predictor.  He says that is what he and his colleagues are watching, but they can’t get their governors to take it seriously. They’re smashing their heads just like we are because when cases start to rise but deaths don’t the political decisions makers and PR people start speculating about how the virus is getting less deadly and treatments are getting better, and younger people are catching it and they have better outcomes, etc, etc.  Then two weeks later deaths start to rise but it takes another week to be sure it’s not a blip and then a week to actually do anything about it and by that time it’s a disaster.  And then when a response is mounted you don’t see the results of it for a month or more so no one believes it’s working.


So the decision makers do have the information, or at least they have people who have the information. They’re just not listening to them.  😞

Aaaaaaaaaah!!

Sorry, but that is incredibly frustrating. Thanks for getting in touch with people who know what they are doing. 

I'm going to keep running my "projections." I wonder if we should put it on a website somewhere if it keeps working, to show how predictive it is?? A linear relationship is a ridiculous one to ignore, if it holds up. 

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