Florida COVID trends

[ktgrok]

4 minutes ago, ikslo said:

I was trying to explain to my father (who lives in TN) the other day that this is my fear more than death (since he believes this is all no big deal and overblown) - that we end up in the hospital for a long-term stay and end up bankrupt.  Or end up with long-term health problems.  He asked why I was concerned about that when the goverment is paying for everything.  😲 After I *somewhat* calmly explained that no, only the test to see if you have it is free, not everything else, he said, "Oh, well, I'm on Medicare and they pay for everything so I'm not worried."  Sigh.

Not to mention, the loss of income for a worker to be out sick that long, who cares for the kids, etc etc. Just the emotional fall out of say, me in the hospital and my kids, especially my 3 yr old, not being able to visit or understand what is going on, and my husband trying to handle all that while worried about me plus work...it's a nightmare!

Edited June 25, 2020 by Ktgrok

[ikslo]

3 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

Not to mention, the loss of income for a worker to be out sick that long, who cares for the kids, etc etc. Just the emotional fall out of say, me in the hospital and my kids, especially my 3 yr old, not being able to visit or understand what is going on, and my husband trying to handle all that while worried about me plus work...it's a nightmare!

And yet so many just focus on the death rate.  I don't get it.  I would love to see more stories about length of hospital stays, average cost, lingering health effects, impact on families, etc.  I've seen a few lately, but not enough for the "it's no worse than the flu" people to take notice.

[ktgrok]

up to 86 orlando firefighters positive.Was 28 last week.  https://www.wesh.com/article/orlando-firefighters-coronavirus/32962000

[ktgrok]

In the entire month of May, Seminole County saw 117 new positive cases of COVID-19. In June already, more than 1,200 new positive cases have been reported.

Seminole County leaders said hospitals are seeing more COVID-19 cases but said for now, the number of patients is manageable.

https://www.wesh.com/article/seminole-county-sees-record-breaking-number-of-covid-19-cases/32967323

[mumto2]

NM

Edited October 16, 2020 by mumto2

[ktgrok]

Fingers crossed they are negative. 

And impressed with the contact tracing. Just read that Orange Count has 25 public health workers - and not all those contract tracing. And we had 727 new cases reported today. So, yeah....no WAY are less than two dozen people going to be able to track all those contacts down. It isn't possible. 

[mumto2]

NM

 

Edited October 16, 2020 by mumto2

[mumto2]

Florida has now banned the sale of alcohol in bars.  

[ktgrok]

Almost 9K new cases in Florida!

Over 1,000 just in Orange County. Orlando is now the city with the second most cases in the state - second only to Miami. 

[ktgrok]

1 minute ago, Seasider too said:

Sheesh. They need to close the doors. People have been carrying flasks for millennia. 

My husband thinks it is because many serve food too? So hard to distinguish between a restaurant that serves drinks, and a bar that serves food. Easier to ban alcohol I guess?

[Selkie]

10 minutes ago, Seasider too said:

That makes sense. I guess my point is that it likely won’t reduce crowd aggregate effectively enough. 

Frankly, if they serve food AND have property for well-spaced outdoor dining, I think alcohol sales would be fine, for those who really really need that option for maintaining mental health. It’s the nightclub atmosphere (close

mingling, shouting in others’ faces to be heard over loud music) that needs to be banned. I think if bars stay open and continue to serve food and mixer beverages.... people are just going to bring flasks or travel size booze bottles. And dance and loud music etc etc.

Personally, I will stick to occasional curbside pickup. 

Madison, WI has seen a large increase in cases, many of them in the 20-29 age group. They are slowing down their reopening and have new rules for restaurants and bars: Customers must remain seated at all times except for trips to the restroom, and they may only be seated with members of their own household. The reason for that is because contact tracing showed that the virus has been spreading like crazy among people standing up and mingling and socializing at bars.

[Pen]

23 hours ago, square_25 said:

Oh yeah, who has shifted so far?? I've been taking a break... 

 

Toward masks?

@PeterPan iirc 😊👍. At least a bit. 

Edited June 26, 2020 by Pen

[Pen]

16 hours ago, mumto2 said:

I am late to the daily reporting party ......... today’s number of positives was 145, which was back in the 10% percent positive range because they upped number of tests given hugely.  Among those people were my neighbor’s daughter and her boyfriend.......they live in student housing but saw neighbor’s at the restaurant they work at last weekend......kids were masked, neighbors were eating. Neighbor is an essential worker who got to run out of his office this morning when he discovered he had been potentially exposed.  The hope is she got it after work when she went out with her group of besties who are also all positive now.  They all hugged each other.  This sprang from one of the besties who was at a large gathering last week where everyone is now positive too.  Notice I keep saying EVERYONE was POSITIVE.......all unmasked contacts in close quarters. Only one of the students has symptoms.....the boyfriend.

So I have been totally freaked out since I heard the neighbor’s news.  There is a good chance they will not have it but have been told they won’t have results until Monday.  Grrrrrr. We have not been physically close to those neighbors but do chat.  They are scheduled for a test tomorrow.  The contact tracing is pretty serious here as we now know of more people who have been contacted this week and tested.  Hopefully that will continue to be done well.  So far the contacted have been negative,  so fingers crossed.

 

Yikes. 

 

Fingers crossed for you!!!

Where is “here” for you if u are willing to say?

Edited June 26, 2020 by Pen

[ktgrok]

58 minutes ago, Seasider too said:

That makes sense. I guess my point is that it likely won’t reduce crowd aggregate effectively enough. 

Frankly, if they serve food AND have property for well-spaced outdoor dining, I think alcohol sales would be fine, for those who really really need that option for maintaining mental health. It’s the nightclub atmosphere (close

mingling, shouting in others’ faces to be heard over loud music) that needs to be banned. I think if bars stay open and continue to serve food and mixer beverages.... people are just going to bring flasks or travel size booze bottles. And dance and loud music etc etc.

Personally, I will stick to occasional curbside pickup. 

If they can't serve alcohol, my guess is they can't afford to stay open. That's how they make money. So they will close on their own I bet. 

Also, looking at it more, it seems maybe that it was done this way to avoid the governor being the one to do it? I'm seeing no quotes about this from him - no excecutive order. Instead, the Department of Business and Professional Regulation suspended the liquor licenses of all bars, effective immediately. So...did they do this independently of him, I wonder? Or was it done to at least allow him to save face - so it isn't directly from him? Going to look into it more. 

No word yet as to if restaurants with sit down dining can still serve alcohol, and if bars can sell to go liquor, or what. 

12 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Ah, but she didn't seem precisely against them in the first place :-). I'm glad, though! 

Well, she said numerous times there was zero evidence they were effective, which was pretty against them. BUT she's an open minded person, so as the evidence continued to be posted, she decided to order some for herself and family 🙂

[ktgrok]

Ok, more clarification - if a business is licensed as a restaurant, not a bar, and gets less than 50% of proceeds from alcohol, they can continue to serve alcohol at table service only - not at the bar. So basically, keeping people sitting down and hopefully distancing. 

And bars can sell to-go, for off premise enjoyment, so continue to earn some money that way. 

[ktgrok]

Florida takes weeks to report deaths, then back fills those deaths on the graph. Over the past 18 days, the number of deaths for June 8th has gone from 5, to 33. That's an increase of 600%. It took three WEEKS to go up that much - and may still go up more. Now, go look at the deaths for June 23rd, just three DAYS ago - 25 deaths. Imagine what the deaths reported for that day will look like a few weeks from now, as they back fill in the data. Will that go up 600% too? Until just recently, the graph ALWAYS looked as if it was sharply trending down, because they don't have most of the data yet for the past two weeks. Suddenly, that chart looks kind of flat...either they got MUCH faster at getting death certificates filed (doubtful) or this is going to look really bad soon. In other words - looking flat actually means rising considerably.

[ktgrok]

I'm also freaking out because my son is still working in the real world. He works in a vet clinic. They require all clients to wear masks, but I am betting the staff doesn't when they are not around clients. And I don't know what the staff is exposed to when not there. And cases in our county are climbing higher and  higher. And vet staff work in very close physical space - so one person's face is often inches from the other's face. Never more than a few feet if you are both working on the same animal - he'd be holding them while the vet does an exam, or holding for a tech to draw blood, etc. If he was not who he was, I'd ask him to stay home and take a leave of absence. But he has ASD, he's FINALLY doing something worthwhile, etc...so I really can't. I did tell him today in passing, and will reiterate, that if at any point he feels the office is not a safe environment, he can quit, ask or a leave of abscence, etc. He'd still volunteer at the bird rehab place, but they have rules of only one person in a building at a time if at all possible, most of the work is outdoors, spaced out. 

He also REALLY needs to start college this fall - he will lose scholarship money if he doesn't take at least one class, somewhere, in anything. Part of me thinks school plus bird rehab work would be enough, but that's not my call. He's 20. And he's earning money, etc. (he'd wanted to take a trip to europe...not happening now..sigh). 

And my sister is working in person at the highschool she is principal at, with other staff, no kids yet. Her kids tag along. I feel badly not offering to watch her kids, but they are being MUCH less careful, shopping, vacations, etc. 

I hate all this. 

[cintinative]

Almost 9000 new cases today for FL. We are back in OH now but we will be self-isolating. I feel like we escaped something and that's not good.

[edelweiss]

2 minutes ago, cintinative said:

Almost 9000 new cases today for FL. We are back in OH now but we will be self-isolating. I feel like we escaped something and that's not good.

Good plan to self-isolate! Unfortunately OH's had 987 new cases today, so that's not good either! 🙂

[cintinative]

30 minutes ago, edelweiss said:

Good plan to self-isolate! Unfortunately OH's had 987 new cases today, so that's not good either! 🙂

 Wow! That's a ton for us. I have not checked our numbers today.  Was there a news conference today?

[cintinative]

@Ktgrok  I think this is date of death by day reported (for FL). Even so, to me, it's not trending down, which is concerning. There are predictable dips on the weekends.

[mumto2]

NM

 

Edited October 16, 2020 by mumto2

[edelweiss]

29 minutes ago, cintinative said:

 Wow! That's a ton for us. I have not checked our numbers today.  Was there a news conference today?

Yes, that is a big number for us, unfortunately.  No, no news conference today.  Next one is scheduled for Tuesday-- unless DeWine feels like an earlier one is necessary.

 

ETA-- In yesterday's news conference, he spoke about how they are presently concerned with the Cincy/Dayton area.

Edited June 26, 2020 by edelweiss

[Wheres Toto]

My high-risk brother works for Disney so I'm watching the Florida numbers.   They were ready to be among the first people out in restaurants the day things opened up and I told him he was an idiot.   

[PeterPan]

6 hours ago, Pen said:

 

Toward masks?

@PeterPan iirc 😊👍. At least a bit. 

HUH??? One, I don't go to bars, so I have no part or party in this. Two, zilcho has changed for *me*. Only if compelled to by law or dire need am I or my ds wearing a mask. I'm buying masks to put on my dd because she's going to be smacked up on people at her university and doesn't need to get sick. Ain't gonna be distancing at the university, no 6', so she's going to be in a mask. 

I bought three masks from HappyMask. One will be presumably for ds so he can go to the dentist (which I consider dire need, as I don't want $$$$ in cavities and he doesn't brush well), and two are for dd to try for her sensory. Probably I'll keep one for my trip to the dentist as well (again, I'm rabid about this and they're idiot enough to think that they really need that for the 18 seconds I'm walking by them at the counter, even though the SAME SPACING is occurring in Target, Walmart, everywhere else without issue, don't get me started). If I don't like it, I'll send them both with dd or share one with my friend who masks avidly for health reasons.

So no, diddley has changed. I don't frequent bars and don't plan to. But it strikes me that cruising will follow whatever they work out with bars. Just saying. Well that and restaurants and lots of things. But it does seem like they're working out the kinks that will allow them to have sensible plans on the ships. Why the bars are going so crazy like this is beyond me. You would have thought it was a predictable problem for anyone who knew what goes on there. I drove by a bar/eatery tonight and probably 20 people were congregating outside. I don't think stupidity is limited to FL and TX at the moment.

3 hours ago, edelweiss said:

Good plan to self-isolate! Unfortunately OH's had 987 new cases today, so that's not good either! 🙂

Nope, it's not good. I think people are starting to get a little nuts. I guess we'll see if our fatalities stay low, but I'm not terribly hopeful on that. But we'll see. If they do, then I guess that's good news for people who like bars.

[PeterPan]

2 hours ago, Where's Toto? said:

They were ready to be among the first people out in restaurants the day things opened up

Fwiw, that was probably the *safest* time. The restaurants we went into a month ago were only at like 25% capacity, so it was highly spaced, all workers masked. When the restaurants go up to 100%, that's hairier.

[PeterPan]

7 hours ago, square_25 said:

Ah, but she didn't seem precisely against them in the first place :-). I'm glad, though! 

Don't be too glad, haha. Nothing has changed. I'm still me. It's not rocket science. The bars, 18-20 somethings hanging out, NYC metro, etc. all have in common SMOOSHED TOGETHER PEOPLE and they get high numbers of cases. So it's glaringly obvious that if you're going to put yourself in that position you better wear a mask or you're an idiot. And since my parental duty is to make sure she finishes the semester, and since she's living with someone who masks and does not want to get sick (outspoken about this), the courteous, rational thing to do is mask. 

Now the better question is why her university hasn't said it yet. I think they're state is just slower on the draw for everything. But I'm calling it and saying how it's gonna be. And in our state, the big flagships are already saying mandatory masks. I just don't think politics, religion, etc. should be driving this with some kind of show of bravado or something. Personally, I think Trump should have printed 10k super cute flag/trump masks and been done with it. There was no need to offend anyone and I don't think resistance would have been that high. I think it was a missed opportunity. But I may also be missing where a percentage of the country is. Me, I pair I'm not with therefore I don't. 

Whatever, all in the weeds. I just don't think it's necessary to characterize me. I think what the other thread showed is that for many people there is NUANCE and the whole let's argue and I'll tell you what you think stuff is just not going to capture that. We know what we think and it's nuanced.

[PeterPan]

3 hours ago, mumto2 said:

One thing interesting that we have noticed is areas with primarily retirees in FL aren’t spiking like The Villages.........

Do you think their retirees have a higher rate of masking or they're staying in more or?? 

[ktgrok]

They haven't been unscathed - this article is 10 days old but the best I found, could be more now. (The Villages is a notorious hotspot for STI's as well....)

As of Tuesday, 83 Villagers had tested positive for COVID-19 – 71 in Sumter County, 10 in Lake County and two in the Marion County portion of the sprawling retirement mecca. The virus also has claimed at least two Villagers – Carol Lynch and Debbie Butler – both of whom lived in Sumter County.

The tri-county area was reporting 1,091 cases – an increase of 27 in a 24-hour period. Those are comprised of 582 men, 484 women, 22 non-residents and three people who are listed as unknown. There have been 41 deaths and 174 people have been hospitalized.

https://www.villages-news.com/2020/06/16/covid-19-hits-the-villages-and-summerfield-again-as-state-tops-80000-cases/

[ktgrok]

9 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh, and it's probably much worse now, with the crazy spike :-(. 

As of today, I found The Villages has 105 cases. The entire tricounty area it is located in has about 1,800. 

[mumto2]

On 6/26/2020 at 9:11 PM, PeterPan said:

Do you think their retirees have a higher rate of masking or they're staying in more or?? 

 

Edited October 16, 2020 by mumto2

[mumto2]

17 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

As of today, I found The Villages has 105 cases. The entire tricounty area it is located in has about 1,800. 

I know a couple of people who are panicking about now!  
 

That said I am panicking!  @Ktgrok I am so naive,  STI’s at the Villages......oh wow!  

[ktgrok]

2 minutes ago, mumto2 said:

I know a couple of people who are panicking about now!  
 

That said I am panicking!  @Ktgrok I am so naive,  STI’s at the Villages......oh wow!  

Oh my goodness yes! It is a running joke in Florida. All the retirees who know they don't have to worry about getting pregnant, and came of age when a round of penicillin would cure most other sexual consequences, getting it on like rabbits and spreading disease right and left. REad this article at your own peril. 

The state’s sexually transmitted disease rate among those over 65 is one of the fastest growing in the country, one report claims.

In 2006, a local gynecologist reported that she treated more cases of herpes and human papillomavirus at The Villages than she did when she worked in Miami.

https://nypost.com/2009/01/25/retire-to-the-bedroom/#:~:text=The%20state's%20sexually%20transmitted%20disease,when%20she%20worked%20in%20Miami.

Edited June 27, 2020 by Ktgrok

[mumto2]

@Ktgrok 😳 Oh my!  Maybe they did spread it in the bars!😂

[Lady Florida.]

Yeah, the um, exploits of The Villages residents is a running joke.

Today Brevard added 148 new cases, the third day in a row of triple digit new cases. 

The last three days account for nearly 30% of the total number of cases since they started recording on March 16th. Not a 30% increase, but 30% of the total cases has been added in the last three days. 

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2020/06/26/coronavirus-brevard-cases-deaths/3255747001/

[ktgrok]

9 hours ago, Lady Florida. said:

Yeah, the um, exploits of The Villages residents is a running joke.

Today Brevard added 148 new cases, the third day in a row of triple digit new cases. 

The last three days account for nearly 30% of the total number of cases since they started recording on March 16th. Not a 30% increase, but 30% of the total cases has been added in the last three days. 

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/2020/06/26/coronavirus-brevard-cases-deaths/3255747001/

Ugh, I'm glad my parents are being smart. but ugh. Still worried for them. 

[ktgrok]

Over 9,600 new cases in Florida. Over 9,00 in Orange County. 

[cintinative]

1 hour ago, Ktgrok said:

Over 9,600 new cases in Florida. Over 9,00 in Orange County. 

 

I was hoping against hope yesterday was an anomaly.  ugh. 

[mumto2]

NM

Edited October 16, 2020 by mumto2

[ktgrok]

We are asking sick people to wait in line for 6-8 HOURS for antigen testing?!?! (antibody tests were at capacity before it even opened)

That's what they think is plenty of tests?

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/06/27/occc-antibody-test-site-reaches-capacity-before-opening/

[mumto2]

On 6/27/2020 at 11:46 PM, Ktgrok said:

We are asking sick people to wait in line for 6-8 HOURS for antigen testing?!?! (antibody tests were at capacity before it even opened)

That's what they think is plenty of tests?

https://www.clickorlando.com/news/local/2020/06/27/occc-antibody-test-site-reaches-capacity-before-opening/

 

Edited October 16, 2020 by mumto2

[Ausmumof3]

florida state University I think?  This seems short sighted.

Edited June 28, 2020 by Ausmumof3

[purpleowl]

7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

florida state University I think?  This seems short sighted.

DH confirms that he got this message from FSU. Local public schools start Monday, August 10, so it's weird to me that this is effective Friday, August 7. 

[ktgrok]

26 minutes ago, purpleowl said:

DH confirms that he got this message from FSU. Local public schools start Monday, August 10, so it's weird to me that this is effective Friday, August 7. 

When did he get it? Seems crazy to send out now  when we are spiking so outrageously. 

[PeterPan]

21 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

Over 9,600 new cases in Florida. Over 9,00 in Orange County. 

Can I just ask, because every time I see this I keep thinking I'm reading it wrong. We had close to 900 a day last week. For the WHOLE STATE. And they're saying this is for ONE COUNTY???? Ok, they're double us basically. But still, that's a stinking lot of cases. What in the WORLD are they attributing that to????????????????  Are they doing 10X more testing than some other states? And y'all have a lot of counties, so is Orange County agricultural or do they have something that would drive this?

[PeterPan]

38 minutes ago, purpleowl said:

DH confirms that he got this message from FSU. Local public schools start Monday, August 10, so it's weird to me that this is effective Friday, August 7. 

Is that early for schools to start there? Some univ are starting early, hoping to finish their semesters before kids go home for Thanksgiving. Maybe some ps are doing the same thing, front ending days? Seems like that policy on watching kids is going to flex if the schools go online, etc. 

[PeterPan]

13 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

When did he get it? Seems crazy to send out now  when we are spiking so outrageously. 

Yeah, with numbers like that, how are they going to resume school???? 

[PeterPan]

9 hours ago, mumto2 said:

I think the demand for the two negative tests are going to really start messing with the wait times as soon as this weeks positives want to go back to work. I think they go through to same lines.

Ok, is this what is driving the crazy high numbers? Are these repeat testers trying to be allowed to go back to work?

Seems disingenuine if the state puts out these numbers but doesn't tell if they're UNIQUE cases or REPEAT testers. Maybe there could be public outcry to update that, mercy. Their website https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429  says NEW cases, which sure makes it sound like it should be new, not repeat testers trying to confirm if they're clear.

Edited June 28, 2020 by PeterPan

[historically accurate]

9 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

Ok, is this what is driving the crazy high numbers? Are these repeat testers trying to be allowed to go back to work?

Seems disingenuine if the state puts out these numbers but doesn't tell if they're UNIQUE cases or REPEAT testers. Maybe there could be public outcry to update that, mercy. Their website https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429  says NEW cases, which sure makes it sound like it should be new, not repeat testers trying to confirm if they're clear.

According to the fired lady's dashboard (https://www.npr.org/2020/06/14/876584284/fired-florida-data-scientist-launches-a-coronavirus-dashboard-of-her-own), Florida's numbers include repeat NEGATIVE tests, but only the first POSITIVE test. So, correct me if I am wrong (it is Sunday morning - not my best math time haha), you could have your 2 negatives count, but not your 3 positive tests before the two negatives, which to me means, if anything, the positives are fine, but the negatives are high, so the percent positive would be skewed low. 

Disclaimer is in the bottom right hand corner of this page: https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/7572b118dc3c48d885d1c643c195314e/

[chiguirre]

31 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

Can I just ask, because every time I see this I keep thinking I'm reading it wrong. We had close to 900 a day last week. For the WHOLE STATE. And they're saying this is for ONE COUNTY???? Ok, they're double us basically. But still, that's a stinking lot of cases. What in the WORLD are they attributing that to????????????????  Are they doing 10X more testing than some other states? And y'all have a lot of counties, so is Orange County agricultural or do they have something that would drive this?

Orange County is Orlando. They're attributing the huge spike to people not respecting social distancing, not wearing masks and going out and breathing on each other in bars and restaurants. Florida opened up much faster than Ohio, that turned out to be a huge mistake. Unfortunately, they are not alone. Texas and Arizona are right there with them. 

I don't follow FL as closely as TX but our governor, Greg Abbott, has admitted that opening bars was a mistake:

https://www.click2houston.com/news/texas/2020/06/26/gov-greg-abbott-expresses-regret-over-reopening-texas-bars-during-coronavirus/

"If I could go back and redo anything, it probably would have been to slow down the opening of bars, now seeing in the aftermath of how quickly the coronavirus spread in the bar setting," Abbott said during an evening interview with KVIA in El Paso.

Abbott added that the "bar setting, in reality, just doesn't work with a pandemic," noting people "go to bars to get close and to drink and to socialize, and that's the kind of thing that stokes the spread of the coronavirus."