Florida COVID trends

[Lady Florida.]

12 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://amp.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article244514157.html?__twitter_impression=true

That is really disappointing. I expected better from any employees of UF Health, but especially doctors. 

[EmseB]

15 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I don't think specific instances say much about averages. 

No, but I guess this isn't the only instance I've seen, just the latest one, and why the gov is trying to specify what qualifies as food when bars say they are serving food.

[ktgrok]

So my mom, in brevard county, just told me they had a big first responder appreciation barbcue at the park this weekend. No masks to be seen. No social distancing. One person asked about it said they didn't need masks because there was "a breeze"...but she said it as the sheriff was holding her child. Like, in his arms. I'm sorry, when your bodies and faces are that close, a breeze is not enough to be safe. 

The total irony of the situation, of doing things that can spread the virus to say thank you to first responders, and exposing them...it's mind boggling. (and florida has had MANY fire fighters come up positive, police officers, etc)

Edited July 28, 2020 by Ktgrok

[Spryte]

A breeze?  
 

Wasn’t there something about breezes carrying droplets even farther, so more need for masks, not less?  I think it was about ocean breezes, but a breeze is a breeze.  It was in the first mega thread, IIRC.

[ktgrok]

35 minutes ago, Spryte said:

A breeze?  
 

Wasn’t there something about breezes carrying droplets even farther, so more need for masks, not less?  I think it was about ocean breezes, but a breeze is a breeze.  It was in the first mega thread, IIRC.

WEll, it all depends if you are upwind or downwind, I guess, right? Sigh. 

[ktgrok]

And just got an email from the local pediatric urgent care, announcing that they now have Covid testing for kids with same day results. Except...you have to have a certain set of symptoms or insurance likely won't pay for it, so please just come in if your kid has symptoms (and they didn't include GI stuff on the list) and you can't make an appointment, only walk in, and to expect a 2-3 hour wait, in your car. 

My DD 3 had fever for several days, fatigue, headache, and a little bit of loose stool. But no way am I taking her to sit in a car for 3 hours to risk more exposure to get a swab shoved up her nose. I'm sure many many other parents have made the same call, which skews the info as to how many kids are getting this.

That is the state of testing here. 

Edited July 28, 2020 by Ktgrok

[ktgrok]

And..now I know a positive person. A friend, not just a friend of a friend. Ugh. 

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

Are they doing ok?

Yes, she's starting to feel better. She made a joke that by the time you get results you are either intubated or mostly better. 

[Lady Florida.]

3 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

So my mom, in brevard county, just told me they had a big first responder appreciation barbcue at the park this weekend. No masks to be seen. No social distancing. One person asked about it said they didn't need masks because there was "a breeze"...but she said it as the sheriff was holding her child. Like, in his arms. I'm sorry, when your bodies and faces are that close, a breeze is not enough to be safe. 

The total irony of the situation, of doing things that can spread the virus to say thank you to first responders, and exposing them...it's mind boggling. (and florida has had MANY fire fighters come up positive, police officers, etc)

Our sheriff is the worst! He didn't want the beaches shut down back in March when it was being discussed, and still doesn't think we should be taking any serious precautions. He definitely doesn't think anything needs to be mandated. I can't wait to hopefully vote him out.

Brevard County deaths jumped by 20 overnight. The previous record for one day deaths was 6, earlier this month. Most of the 20 were elderly - one was 51, one 64, and one 65, and the rest were over 70 but their lives were no less important than if they were young people.

And now there are 300 high school grads being told to self quarantine because a graduation ceremony was held (outdoors but still) and apparently someone there was positive for Covid-19.

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/education/2020/07/28/nearly-300-bayside-grads-asked-quarantine-covid-19-after-graduation/5528481002/

[matrips]

1 hour ago, Ktgrok said:

Yes, she's starting to feel better. She made a joke that by the time you get results you are either intubated or mostly better. 

We’ll pray that she’s mostly better by then :) 🙏🏻

[stephanier.1765]

1 hour ago, Ktgrok said:

Yes, she's starting to feel better. She made a joke that by the time you get results you are either intubated or mostly better. 

It took 12 days for dh's to come back. It wasn't because it took a long time to process in the lab but because they contact the positives first. Which I totally get but the negatives need to get back to work too. They need more people just to make phone calls. That should be a pretty easy position to fill. 🤦‍♀️

ETA: Now he has to be even more careful to not get Covid since he used up most of the 80 hours you get paid to stay home. I'm pretty sure you only get that once. I can't find any definitive information on that. Does anybody know for sure?

Edited July 28, 2020 by stephanier.1765

[ktgrok]

17 minutes ago, Lady Florida. said:

Our sheriff is the worst! He didn't want the beaches shut down back in March when it was being discussed, and still doesn't think we should be taking any serious precautions. He definitely doesn't think anything needs to be mandated. I can't wait to hopefully vote him out.

Brevard County deaths jumped by 20 overnight. The previous record for one day deaths was 6, earlier this month. Most of the 20 were elderly - one was 51, one 64, and one 65, and the rest were over 70 but their lives were no less important than if they were young people.

And now there are 300 high school grads being told to self quarantine because a graduation ceremony was held (outdoors but still) and apparently someone there was positive for Covid-19.

https://www.floridatoday.com/story/news/education/2020/07/28/nearly-300-bayside-grads-asked-quarantine-covid-19-after-graduation/5528481002/

Right, and how many are in the hosptial fighting for their lives? UGH

4 minutes ago, matrips said:

We’ll pray that she’s mostly better by then 🙂 🙏🏻

Oh, she got her results. She's positive. Her spouse tested negative, but I assume that's a false negative. 

[Pam in CT]

3 minutes ago, stephanier.1765 said:

It took 12 days for dh's to come back. It wasn't because it took a long time to process in the lab but because they contact the positives first. Which I totally get but the negatives need to get back to work too. They need more people just to make phone calls. That should be a pretty easy position to fill. 🤦‍♀️

That... that is remarkable.  Remarkably disappointing.

We had long processing times at our worst too, but the bottleneck was at the labs -- many hospitals didn't yet have their own processing.  If the results are known and the bottleneck is literally getting the word back... that is a problem that should have been fixed weeks ago.  Figure out a secure portal system, for Lord's sake, that would clear at least half without staff once it was set up properly.

[ktgrok]

Shattered our record for deaths, at 256 today. I think that's the third time in four days we've hit a record high.

We are now past the point of the equivalent of a 737 crashing in the state, every single day. 

I'm so furious with our governor. WE KNEW this would happen. When cases were skyrocketing (I still remember people freaking out when we hit 1,000 cases...today we were almost at 10K) and the Governor said that it was fine, because deaths were not up. But we KNEW they lagged cases. We KNEW deaths would go up. And he just lied and said it was fine. 

And the state is still forcing schools to open. 

The emergency order says local health departments can say it isn't safe to open, but the head of the orange county health department says that he "works for the health department, but isn't himself the health department, so he can't do that". Um, no one thought the freaking BUILDING was going to issue guidelines. As the head of the local department, YOU speak for it!!! Wimp. 

[cintinative]

I'm back to vent.

My senior pastor and his wife are on vacation in Key West, FL. In what world is this a good idea?  They will have to quarantine for 14 days upon their return but my guess is that they won't do it.   Fortunately we are not going to service, but YIKES. 

[Twolittleboys]

So quick questions for those of you that are tracking this more than me: The last couple of days I have noticed on Worldometer that daily new cases in many states (including especially Florida) have gone way down, from around 10 k to 7 k to now around 5k.

Obviously, that sounds like good news but I just don't understand how that can be? It would mean that R has gone down significantly, correct? I know that some restrictions have been enacted but I thought not that many/many people don't comply? I can see the cases staying level under those circumstances but going down that fast/far is surprising. Here in Europe it took a while for such a decrease even when there was a lockdown. So I am wondering is this really happening (and if so what is the reason) or is it a data problem of some sort?

 

[Matryoshka]

Just now, Twolittleboys said:

So quick questions for those of you that are tracking this more than me: The last couple of days I have noticed on Worldometer that daily new cases in many states (including especially Florida) have gone way down, from around 10 k to 7 k to now around 5k.

Obviously, that sounds like good news but I just don't understand how that can be? It would mean that R has gone down significantly, correct? I know that some restrictions have been enacted but I thought not that many/many people don't comply? I can see the cases staying level under those circumstances but going down that fast/far is surprising. Here in Europe it took a while for such a decrease even when there was a lockdown. So I am wondering is this really happening (and if so what is the reason) or is it a data problem of some sort?

Good question.  Very suspicious that it happened right after the WH took control of the data.  There still seems to be a feeling that they can make a real-world virus go away by 'finding less cases'.

Apparently we're only going to be able to tell what really happened by looking at excess deaths after it's over... 😕

[cintinative]

5 minutes ago, kand said:

 I read that the impending tropical storm may have had an effect as well. 

Many of the S. Florida and central FL testing sites have been closed for five days.

[ktgrok]

25 minutes ago, Twolittleboys said:

So quick questions for those of you that are tracking this more than me: The last couple of days I have noticed on Worldometer that daily new cases in many states (including especially Florida) have gone way down, from around 10 k to 7 k to now around 5k.

Obviously, that sounds like good news but I just don't understand how that can be? It would mean that R has gone down significantly, correct? I know that some restrictions have been enacted but I thought not that many/many people don't comply? I can see the cases staying level under those circumstances but going down that fast/far is surprising. Here in Europe it took a while for such a decrease even when there was a lockdown. So I am wondering is this really happening (and if so what is the reason) or is it a data problem of some sort?

 

The biggest testing sites in thar hardest hit areas were closed for the tropical storm from Thursday to I think Monday. (reopened monday I think)

Positivity went down some, but not much...our mask mandate in my county has been in place about a month now. Now the issue is spread in personal settings, family gatherings, parties, etc rather than in businesses. 

Also there is a push to switch to more rapid testing - which is significantly more likely to have false negatives. And we have a lot of teachers who are getting tested before school starts, of their own volition, that have no symptoms, so that's also bringing it down a bit. 

But soon the bigger testing sites are switching to the less accurate rapid test - so expect positivity rate to drop when that happens, just in time to say hey, it's safe to reopen schools!

Edited August 4, 2020 by Ktgrok

[Twolittleboys]

Hm, it does sound suspicious. I think testing sites being closed due to storm warnings and more negatives due to testing teachers etc. make a lot of sense. I can see R going down due to changed behaviour but it would be surprising if it was that much (based on numbers in the past/other places). I guess we will see how things develop in the next couple of weeks.

[Ali in OR]

How long could a population produce 10k positives per day? At some point you run out of people (or a sizable percentage has already had it).

[cintinative]

I really think the low number of positives will go up again once the testing centers open tomorrow, so we might see a change on Thursday.  I could be wrong, but  the drop off was too dramatic, and people do tend to hunker down when a hurricane is predicted. 

[ktgrok]

5 minutes ago, Ali in OR said:

How long could a population produce 10k positives per day? At some point you run out of people (or a sizable percentage has already had it).

Well, we have half as many cases now, but half as many tests too - so I'm pretty sure if we were testing as much as we were then, we'd have 10K again, or close to it. 

[Twolittleboys]

1 hour ago, Ali in OR said:

How long could a population produce 10k positives per day? At some point you run out of people (or a sizable percentage has already had it).

 

Well, if we estimate 20 million people in Florida and say 60% get infected (I think I have read that previously as a fair estimate before much herd immunity sets in?) we still have 12 million people. At 10,000 a day you can go quite a while (around 3 years I think). Obviously, these numbers are just a very very rough guess and it would depend on how the population mingles, whether certain populations are more careful than others, etc. But either way, I can't think that we could be anywhere close to running out of people (even if the actual cases are quite a bit higher than the reported ones). Going off the reported deaths, the most current probable IFR of around 0,6, and extrapolating due to the lag in deaths I would guess that maybe around 2 million have been infected in Florida so far. Even given that I may be quite a bit off, I don't think the reason for the lower numbers could be that too many have had it (though I may be wrong, especially if there are social/cultural factors at play).

[ktgrok]

18 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Florida positivity is basically not budging yet. 

Confusing things is the state runs two different positivity rates. One is people, one is tests or something like that. So you will see a 15% positivity, and a 10% positivity or whatever. 

This is from today's report, showing both rates, over time. 

 

Edited August 4, 2020 by Ktgrok

[ktgrok]

4 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh. I see, because of repeated tests.

I think everyone else just does percent if tests, so for comparison, I’ll use that statistic. Good to know it’s very different.

Yup, I think so too. But we wanted to brag about a smaller number,s o invented the other way or something, I don't know, lol. 

[EmseB]

19 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh. I see, because of repeated tests.

I think everyone else just does percent if tests, so for comparison, I’ll use that statistic. Good to know it’s very different.

Wouldn't showing both rates indicate more specific data and not less? Like more transparency? I've always thought counting duplicate tests would add a lot of noise to the data.

[EmseB]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh, definitely, but since most places don't disaggregate, it's easier for me to look at the number I have accessible for every place. But I agree, knowing more is good. 

Ah, I didn't know most places didn't disaggregate. Isn't that concerning as an accurate measure of spread?

[Lady Florida.]

3 hours ago, kand said:

 When did Florida’s mask mandate go into effect? 

Florida doesn't have a mask mandate. There are some cities and some counties throughout the state that have mask mandates but there isn't a statewide mandate. It's like we Christmas treed a standardized test, that's how crazy the mask mandates would look if you saw them on a map. 

Edited August 4, 2020 by Lady Florida.

[ktgrok]

1 hour ago, EmseB said:

Wouldn't showing both rates indicate more specific data and not less? Like more transparency? I've always thought counting duplicate tests would add a lot of noise to the data.

It is good, except they don't really clarify it in the news, etc...and often try to compare the lower person rate to other people's higher test rate. Or one article in the news will use one rate one day, then the next rate the next, and it gets all confused. The governor and state have NOT clarified this to average people, so it's a huge source of confusion. At least we are not including antibody tests in there too, which was going to be a thing. 

[ktgrok]

This is an article about gyms, but the bigger story is about contact tracing. From the article:

“The contact tracing up to now has been a failure and very frustrating,” Miami Beach Mayor Dan Gelber said Wednesday.

In a letter to Gov. Ron DeSantis dated July 27, Gelber said Miami-Dade’s contact tracing effort is ill-equipped to keep up with the spreading pandemic and pleaded for expanded and improved contact tracing.

According to Gelber’s letter, contact tracers were able to connect with only 17% of those infected on July 11.

“That means over 80% of those infected were never reached and have never been advised where or how to isolate,” Gelber wrote.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-gyms-coronavirus-20200808-irtbve3saza4jj5xuhuliffede-story.html

[Bootsie]

1 hour ago, Ktgrok said:

According to Gelber’s letter, contact tracers were able to connect with only 17% of those infected on July 11.

“That means over 80% of those infected were never reached and have never been advised where or how to isolate,” Gelber wrote.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-gyms-coronavirus-20200808-irtbve3saza4jj5xuhuliffede-story.html

I am a bit confused about these statements.  I didn't think the purpose of contact tracing was to reach someone who is infected and advise them on where and how to isolate.  It seems like someone who is infected would be contacted somehow regarding the results of a test and in that contact would be advised on where and how to isolate.  Are 80% of those who are infected really not given this information?

[Matryoshka]

22 minutes ago, kand said:

From people I know with positive tests, it was the contact tracer who gave them this info. They saw they were positive from their patient portal and then later got a call from a contact tracer who gave them instructions on who needed to isolate for how long and checked in with them every day. 

But I thought the main point of contact tracing was, to, y'know.... trace contacts. Didn't they also ask the positive person who their close contacts were and then contact them to tell them to get tested and isolate?  I was first thinking it was those people who weren't able to be contacted in the previous article, though calling them 'the infected' would then not be accurate, as they'd only be 'potentially infected contacts'.  Do they mean they couldn't even get in touch with most of the actual positives to ask them about contacts?  Even worse...

[Bootsie]

6 hours ago, kand said:

From people I know with positive tests, it was the contact tracer who gave them this info. They saw they were positive from their patient portal and then later got a call from a contact tracer who gave them instructions on who needed to isolate for how long and checked in with them every day. 

There seems to be a big difference on how this is handled in different areas.  A relative has been working in contact tracing in Texas, and at least in her area, she is not the one who  initially contacts a person with test results and does not continue to follow up with them every day.  The article did say that 60-80% of the infections are occurring in households, so you would think that it isn't really 80% of the people they would need to reach don't know that they have been exposed.  

[ktgrok]

6 hours ago, Bootsie said:

There seems to be a big difference on how this is handled in different areas.  A relative has been working in contact tracing in Texas, and at least in her area, she is not the one who  initially contacts a person with test results and does not continue to follow up with them every day.  The article did say that 60-80% of the infections are occurring in households, so you would think that it isn't really 80% of the people they would need to reach don't know that they have been exposed.  

I think they probably meant "potentially infected" not infected. 

Also, Broward reaching 20 percent is higher than most other areas....I think statewide we are at 5%. 

[kbutton]

23 hours ago, Bootsie said:

I am a bit confused about these statements.  I didn't think the purpose of contact tracing was to reach someone who is infected and advise them on where and how to isolate.  It seems like someone who is infected would be contacted somehow regarding the results of a test and in that contact would be advised on where and how to isolate.  Are 80% of those who are infected really not given this information?

I bet both are a function of the health department if the testing was not run through a doctor's office. If it's pop-up testing (as it's called here), I think that is totally a health department function. From there, I don't know if the same person that traces contacts is the same person that gives instructions, but I would not be surprised if that is how it goes here.

We've heard about it being super precise here and also being very murky here--I bet it varies by county in my area, and it might vary by how busy they are; for instance, they might have had more time to do instructions, get information back from the patient about health status, etc. when our cases were lower. 

[Lady Florida.]

This young man is local. The unincorporated town he lives in is quite small and SIL lives there. 

https://www.wesh.com/article/brevard-man-organ-failure-mild-covid-19-symptoms/33566704

[ktgrok]

Current hospitalizations: 

[ktgrok]

Positivity info:

 

[cintinative]

So, so confused.

https://www.wftv.com/news/local/people-with-multiple-negative-coronavirus-tests-are-diluting-positivity-rate-florida/P47QQOX23BHCTPAGZHTHLFWHJA/

[sassenach]

4 hours ago, cintinative said:

So, so confused.

https://www.wftv.com/news/local/people-with-multiple-negative-coronavirus-tests-are-diluting-positivity-rate-florida/P47QQOX23BHCTPAGZHTHLFWHJA/

This doesn't bother me. I don't expect agencies to track each negative test to make sure it's not the same person testing multiple times. That would be a waste of resources. The positivity rate is helpful but it's not so important that we need to divert resources to tracking negatives.

[ktgrok]

2 hours ago, sassenach said:

This doesn't bother me. I don't expect agencies to track each negative test to make sure it's not the same person testing multiple times. That would be a waste of resources. The positivity rate is helpful but it's not so important that we need to divert resources to tracking negatives.

When it is cutting the positivity in HALF and that number is used to make important decisions, like if schools should reopen, it is actually VERY important. I had a feeling our recent drop in positivity in Orange County was too good to be true - and was trying to figure it out. I hadn't even THOUGHT about the major league sports players being tested nearly daily! (also a LOT of teachers are testing right now, without symptoms, just to find out before school starts)

And it isn't impossible to track it properly - they already do at the state level. The state reports it both ways in their state report, but only the weird way in the county report. 

[sassenach]

4 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

When it is cutting the positivity in HALF and that number is used to make important decisions, like if schools should reopen, it is actually VERY important. I had a feeling our recent drop in positivity in Orange County was too good to be true - and was trying to figure it out. I hadn't even THOUGHT about the major league sports players being tested nearly daily! (also a LOT of teachers are testing right now, without symptoms, just to find out before school starts)

And it isn't impossible to track it properly - they already do at the state level. The state reports it both ways in their state report, but only the weird way in the county report. 

Why is the positivity rate driving school reopening? It’s not always a blanket thing where low positivity=universally good. Sometimes the most effective testing (targeted) will drive the positivity rate up and yet it’s a good testing strategy and will ultimately lead to better control. Maybe there’s an over emphasis on it to begin with if it’s a tipping factor in school reopening. 

Edited August 16, 2020 by sassenach

[ktgrok]

24 minutes ago, kdsuomi said:

We've always been told that the positivity rate was the rate for all tests, though. Why would they change that now? The positivity rate was never supposed to be about just catching first time testers. How would that even work? A person's test result can only be considered one time no matter what or one time once the person tested positive? 

But they are counting the positives only once - its only the negatives they count multiple times. 

So if someone has multiple positives, and multiple negatives, they count only the first positive, but ALL the negatives.

And then when you consider that the NBA players are in a virtual bubble, so not the same risk as the general populace, but their test results make up a HUGE percentage of our daily tests in the county, it really gives a skewed perspective. 

We lately are doing about 4 thousand tests a day, sometimes less. There are about 800 people in the NBA bubble being tested daily, from what I can figure. Plus however many in the MLS bubble that are tested every other day. That's a significant percentage of our tests, all negative, and their results, in that bubble, are not reflective of the rate in the general community. But their results will figure into if we can open schools, etc. 

Edited August 16, 2020 by Ktgrok

[ktgrok]

 

10 minutes ago, kdsuomi said:

Are they counting positives only once in positivity or only new cases? Here every result is counted in positivity but a person is only counted once in new cases.

I would think the MLS and NBA numbers wouldn't be counted in figuring when things can reopen.  In CA, prison inmate numbers aren't figured into county numbers for those decisions because they're not out in the community. 

No, they are only counted once in positivity. Not just new cases. 

And the MLS and NBA numbers are not separated out from our county numbers. They are included as part of the normal positivity. No separation or clarification. 

Now, to be clear, we don't have a hard percent positivity that we will open schools at (or close them...they are actually set to open next week), but the number floated as "safe" is 5%. So yeah, when nearly a quarter of our tests are not actually part of the community at large, but from a bubble...that's an issue. 

Edited August 16, 2020 by Ktgrok