What's you prediction for SARS-COV-2 cases related to crowds of protesters, police, and national guard crowds?

[JadeOrchidSong]

My city, Minneapolis, has seen thousands and thousands protesters crowding, some with some without masks. 5000 national guards, and police, do not have masks and probably nowhere to find water to wash hands for hours on end. With crowding and loud speeches, do you predict there will be a high wave of Covid infection cases? What is the chance that there will be no waves? 

[prairiewindmomma]

Locally, most people are masked. Some are socially distancing at different events. Other times it’s packed.

I think we’ll see an upswing, but the people who aren’t masking at protests are also likely the ones living their lives unmasked elsewhere—in grocery stores, at hardware stores, in neighborhood bbqs, etc.

[Pen]

28 minutes ago, JadeOrchidSong said:

My city, Minneapolis, has seen thousands and thousands protesters crowding, some with some without masks. 5000 national guards, and police, do not have masks and probably nowhere to find water to wash hands for hours on end. With crowding and loud speeches, do you predict there will be a high wave of Covid infection cases?

Yes.  Certainly a wave, maybe slight mitigation due to being mostly outside.

But Close plus extended Contact plus shouting sometimes right in people’s faces is not good. 

28 minutes ago, JadeOrchidSong said:

What is the chance that there will be no waves? 

Define “wave”?

I think there are already some NG probable cases .  

How many cases do I need to call it a wave? 

[Joker]

I honestly don’t know. We keep getting told we’re going to have a bad spike but it hasn’t happened. My state has been opened for a month now and things are fine. We do still have new cases everyday (over 500 new ones posted today) but our daily deaths have gone down and our hospitals are doing fine (we have over 40% of our ICU beds and over 80% of our ventilators available). I think most protestors are on the younger side so maybe they’ll be fine. In my state it’s held steady that age is the biggest factor when it comes to Covid.

The number of cases isn’t what I’m watching either as I expect those to continue. As long as our hospitals don’t have a bump I think things are ok.

[Ausmumof3]

I don’t even want to think about it 😞 

[mumto2]

I think the numbers will increase beyond what opening would have created.  We will never really know.....sigh.

[TCB]

It seems like it may be happening again in Iran ☹️
Trying to post a link but not sure if it will work.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52916179?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbq_live&ns_linkname=5ed84de3c287360661aa56d1%26Iran fears 'second wave' of infections%262020-06-04T02%3A06%3A53.488Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:de1eb409-3213-47c4-aaa8-ad0c101aac33&pinned_post_asset_id=5ed84de3c287360661aa56d1&pinned_post_type=share

 

ETA Not because of protests there but maybe because people became complacent and weren’t being as careful.

Edited June 4, 2020 by TCB

[Ali in OR]

I saw an online presentation that a local epidemiologist (and I didn't even know we had one) made to our city council. He was using modeling software and various assumptions to predict what the virus would do in our area. One of the underlying assumptions is that the virus is 66% more contagious in winter than in summer, similar to other respiratory viruses like other coronaviruses and flu. So this was pre-protests, but his model showed us dipping down to very little virus activity over the summer. Then he shows it ramping up again in the fall when schools, life, and mobility pick up, and then peaking in January. So I'm guessing that we won't see a huge wave from the protests because of the summer dip, though I'm sure there will be some cases that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

[LucyStoner]

This is why BLM Seattle and King County have not become involved with the local protests.  https://southseattleemerald.com/2020/06/03/opinion-black-lives-matter-seattle-king-county-responds-to-recent-protests-and-actions-by-the-city-of-seattle-mayor-durkan/

From the link:

Quote

We live in a country that has lost more than 100,000 people to COVID-19. This virus has ravaged our communities in a way that largely mirrors the existing inequities and structural racism inherent in our healthcare systems. We refuse to encourage our community members to needlessly risk their lives and their health during this time when other avenues of action are available. We reserve the right to take to the streets in the future, but we encourage those who are most directly impacted by this fight, to put your safety and health before anything else.

This is a marathon, not a sprint. The victory is hollow if we’re at the finish line alone.

 

 

[Pen]

14 minutes ago, LucyStoner said:

This is why BLM Seattle and King County have not become involved with the local protests.  https://southseattleemerald.com/2020/06/03/opinion-black-lives-matter-seattle-king-county-responds-to-recent-protests-and-actions-by-the-city-of-seattle-mayor-durkan/

From the link:

 

 

 

👍

[Pen]

56 minutes ago, Ali in OR said:

I saw an online presentation that a local epidemiologist (and I didn't even know we had one) made to our city council. He was using modeling software and various assumptions to predict what the virus would do in our area. One of the underlying assumptions is that the virus is 66% more contagious in winter than in summer, similar to other respiratory viruses like other coronaviruses and flu. So this was pre-protests, but his model showed us dipping down to very little virus activity over the summer. Then he shows it ramping up again in the fall when schools, life, and mobility pick up, and then peaking in January. So I'm guessing that we won't see a huge wave from the protests because of the summer dip, though I'm sure there will be some cases that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

 

 

It was already getting bad in Brazil in summer. And Ecuador near equator.   Summer dip may not be significant. 

 

[Tap]

I expect a big resurgence in the cities with protests that have gone on for many days/nights.  People who have early signs may not self isolate, blaming symptoms on irritants in the air or fatigue from being out for full days/nights. They yelling and proximity, will make masks mildly useful (especially thinner homemade ones) at best, and most likely completely ineffective. Just like health care workers, these people aren't just having a chance encounter with someone in a grocery store, they may be next to multiple exposure points throughout the day/night.  Most people's eyes are exposed too, so even if they wear a mask, there are still people yelling next to them. If people are not staying hydrated, they may have a harder time fighting off the virus, which is hard to do with a mask on...or if they take off the mask to drink, they are now uncovered. 

I think it will more likely to see flares of the different strains of the virus, in new areas. Yep, it would happen anyways, but I think it could speed up that spread.

Edited June 4, 2020 by Tap

[MercyA]

IDK, but I can tell you this: I live in small-town Indiana. Our county had very low numbers from March through most of May (well under 50). Our stay-at-home order ended about two weeks ago. I'd say 90%+ of the local population is going about life as normal. Cases here have tripled.

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, TCB said:

It seems like it may be happening again in Iran ☹️
Trying to post a link but not sure if it will work.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-52916179?ns_mchannel=social&ns_source=twitter&ns_campaign=bbq_live&ns_linkname=5ed84de3c287360661aa56d1%26Iran fears 'second wave' of infections%262020-06-04T02%3A06%3A53.488Z&ns_fee=0&pinned_post_locator=urn:asset:de1eb409-3213-47c4-aaa8-ad0c101aac33&pinned_post_asset_id=5ed84de3c287360661aa56d1&pinned_post_type=share

 

ETA Not because of protests there but maybe because people became complacent and weren’t being as careful.

The only thing I have with this is their initial figures were supposedly really really underreported so it may be this second wave is really fairly small by comparison.

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, Ali in OR said:

I saw an online presentation that a local epidemiologist (and I didn't even know we had one) made to our city council. He was using modeling software and various assumptions to predict what the virus would do in our area. One of the underlying assumptions is that the virus is 66% more contagious in winter than in summer, similar to other respiratory viruses like other coronaviruses and flu. So this was pre-protests, but his model showed us dipping down to very little virus activity over the summer. Then he shows it ramping up again in the fall when schools, life, and mobility pick up, and then peaking in January. So I'm guessing that we won't see a huge wave from the protests because of the summer dip, though I'm sure there will be some cases that wouldn't have happened otherwise.

I have also seen epidemiologists say typically with a new virus it won’t follow a seasonal pattern in the first year or two but may settle into one eventually.  They’re not 100percent sure why but it happens that way.  

[Ottakee]

Time will tell but Michigan did not see spikes after the protests there at the capital....which are I know we're smaller but they had people attendance ng from around the state. 

[Wheres Toto]

There hasn't been enough time since Memorial Day or most of the opening up to see if there's going to be a surge.   It can take 2-3 weeks for case numbers to start showing an effect, and 3-5 weeks for deaths.    Deaths are the numbers we really need to watch since many people are asymptomatic or mild and won't get tested, plus the rate of false positives, plus the places doing odd things with reporting.  Deaths are harder to ignore. 

[TCB]

7 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

The only thing I have with this is their initial figures were supposedly really really underreported so it may be this second wave is really fairly small by comparison.

I haven’t seen it, I don’t think but I’ve read so many things I may have forgotten, but I think someone mentioned that the CDC had used Iran’s numbers as part of their recent mortality rate calculations and I thought that was strange given how unreliable most people thought their numbers were.

[ktgrok]

12 hours ago, Joker said:

. I think most protestors are on the younger side so maybe they’ll be fine. In my state it’s held steady that age is the biggest factor when it comes to Covid.

The number of cases isn’t what I’m watching either as I expect those to continue. As long as our hospitals don’t have a bump I think things are ok.

I just hope they don't spread it...say to family members, etc. And of course people of color have worse outcomes 😞

13 hours ago, Arctic Mama said:

Current data makes it look like the shut down had little effect on the spread and mortality, weirdly enough.  I’m not expecting more than a slight bump from this if Memorial Day weekend didn’t do it, or the three weeks before that.

We are seeing cases edging up in my county - and some spikes as well in my state. We go to full capacity at restaurants Monday, gyms are already open, etc. Will be hard to see what causes what 😞

59 minutes ago, Where's Toto? said:

There hasn't been enough time since Memorial Day or most of the opening up to see if there's going to be a surge.   It can take 2-3 weeks for case numbers to start showing an effect, and 3-5 weeks for deaths.    Deaths are the numbers we really need to watch since many people are asymptomatic or mild and won't get tested, plus the rate of false positives, plus the places doing odd things with reporting.  Deaths are harder to ignore. 

Yup, except death statistics can take months to really be counted. By the time autopsies are done, data is gathered and sent, etc. So weeks to die, then weeks or months to be reported...by that time, not really helpful. It's too late. 

[mumto2]

46 minutes ago, Ottakee said:

Time will tell but Michigan did not see spikes after the protests there at the capital....which are I know we're smaller but they had people attendance ng from around the state. 

My Dh and I wondered about Michigan in light of current events and how they did not create a flare with the protests. We came to conclusion that it might just be because the majority of people involved were mainly from areas with very little community spread to start with.  After all they were protesting that places without the virus be allowed to open.  That protest may have been by it’s nature a self selecting no virus group.  Time will tell........😢

[mumto2]

8 minutes ago, Ktgrok said:

We are seeing cases edging up in my county - and some spikes as well in my state. We go to full capacity at restaurants Monday, gyms are already open, etc. Will be hard to see what causes what 😞

And I believe Sea World plans to open next week, Universal the week after...............

[ktgrok]

And, we just had our highest day yet for new cases. 1.3 thousand yesterday. The day before was 1.2K, that's the first time we have had two days in a row at or over 1K. Guessing that is our Memorial day spike?

And tomorrow we go to phase two of reopening. (and yes, percent positive tests went up too, so not just more testing,but more positive)

Edited June 4, 2020 by Ktgrok

[Pen]

2 hours ago, Ottakee said:

Time will tell but Michigan did not see spikes after the protests there at the capital....which are I know we're smaller but they had people attendance ng from around the state. 

 

When were the protests?  It feels like forever ago, but iirc, it was not actually very long ago.  It takes a couple of weeks or so for cases and longer for deaths to show increases back into an exponential curve. 

It’s an issue I have had with phased openings going every 2 weeks that a return to exponential growth  may relate to a phase already past, not the one in place. 

[mumto2]

6 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

When were the protests?  It feels like forever ago, but iirc, it was not actually very long ago.  It takes a couple of weeks or so for cases and longer for deaths to show increases back into an exponential curve. 

It’s an issue I have had with phased openings going every 2 weeks that a return to exponential growth  may relate to a phase already past, not the one in place. 

The initial Michigan protests were quite awhile ago.......believe started mid to late April.  So we have had a solid month for the numbers to increase.  Btw,  my understanding is the slight uptick in my MI family’s northern location may be attributed to CV positive patients being moved into the area because of a regional nursing home for Covid concept which is actually bringing patients in from downstate to northern MI......not sure how the numbers are being kept regarding those patients and of course the risk of outside spread.

[Pen]

53 minutes ago, mumto2 said:

The initial Michigan protests were quite awhile ago.......believe started mid to late April.  So we have had a solid month for the numbers to increase.  Btw,  my understanding is the slight uptick in my MI family’s northern location may be attributed to CV positive patients being moved into the area because of a regional nursing home for Covid concept which is actually bringing patients in from downstate to northern MI......not sure how the numbers are being kept regarding those patients and of course the risk of outside spread.

 

I just looked at some MI graphs— looks like rising, but no bulge. So if that’s reliable, that’s good!

 

Wayne County numbers on site (Weatherchannel) I was looking at are unusual.

it shows 19,999 cases plus same deaths numbers for quite a few days.  Is that really true?

Or did they just stop reporting to whatever Watson AI uses for its information?  

 

If Wayne Cty with Detroit is not reporting the whole state’s figures could be off. 

 

 

[Reefgazer]

Covid only speads in churches and hair salons; it doesn't spread in protesting crowds or looting crowds.  That's why a business owner who opens is arrested but a looter or protester is ignored or praised for what they do.

Edited June 4, 2020 by Reefgazer

[Pen]

If Wayne County, MI really did manage to have not a single additional case over 19,999 (plus the 2046 dead) for ~ 10 days, how are they doing that? It seems like important information to know everywhere.

 

[ktgrok]

10 minutes ago, Reefgazer said:

Covid only speads in churches and hair salons; it doesn't spread in protesting crowds or looting crowds.  That's why a business owner who opens is arrested but a looter or protester is ignored or praised for what they do.

pretty sure more looters have been arrested than store owners. 

And plenty of people are concerned about both spread in protest crowds and spread in stores/salons. Already spoke with my son about measures he can take if he goes to a local protest, regarding mask, eye protection, distance, etc. 

[melmichigan]

Wayne County is confusing because it includes the city of Detroit, but within the state they are reported separately and that causes some of the AI confusion.  Today Detroit was at 11,116 and Wayne County (excluding Detroit) was 9,474.  They have separate health departments that report individually.  Total dead between the two is 2,484 as of today.

After the protests?  That's hard to say as cases were already climbing on the west side of the state at the time.

 

Edited June 5, 2020 by melmichigan