Areas opening/big parties/protests....are these showing spikes?

[Ottakee]

I struggle to find accurate numbers to show if states that are opening up are showing spikes or if there are spikes after the protests in Michigan or big parties in other states, etc.

The website I saw showed no spike or increasing number of cases in Georgia since they started opening more 3 1/2 weeks ago.   Not spikes in Michigan after the 2 big rallies/protests that drew people from around the state to the capital.

I keep hearing that there WILL be big spikes bit never hear 1-2+ weeks later if there was a big spike (or clusters of positive numbers) from those events or not 

[Jean in Newcastle]

Cut and pasted from another thread:  "Because the US hasn't done consistent contact tracing, we don't have firm numbers on spikes from certain events.  I have seen though people do their own reports of having gotten sick at various parties.  If they hadn't done that (usually because it has changed their mind on the virus and now they are warning people of the dangers) we wouldn't really know."

Specifically I have seen posts written by people who contracted the virus through Mardi Gras in New Orleans, "The Winter Festival" in Miami, Florida.  I saw one number given as a spike after the Wisconsin primary but have no idea where they got the numbers.  The first two events mentioned were posts written by people who caught COVID 19 and were later writing about it themselves so not because of some kind of governmental tally. 

[Jean in Newcastle]

https://www.channel3000.com/72-got-covid-19-after-being-at-large-event/

quote from article:  "

More than 70 people who tested positive for the coronavirus since an April 24 rally at the Wisconsin state Capitol indicated they had attended a large gathering, but the state Department of Health Services cant’ say if they were at the rally because it is not tracking specific events.

Department spokeswoman Elizabeth Goodsitt said Friday that when someone tests positive for COVID-19 they are asked if they attended any large gatherings. But the department did not add the April 24 rally, which attracted about 1,500 people, to the list of specific questions.

The department did add a question after the April 7 election to determine if people had been at the polls. As of Thursday, 67 people who were tested positive for COVID-19 had also reported being at the polls. But because many of them had other exposures, health officials have not been able to conclusively determine where they caught the virus."

[Pawz4me]

NC moved to Phase 1 of re-opening on May 8 and to Phase 2 on May 22. Yesterday we reported our highest one day spike in cases --1107 positive cases, which is around 250 more than our previous highest day. I suspect it's too soon to know if it's a true spike or just a weird blip, though.

NPR article

[Jean in Newcastle]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/southern-california-birthday-party-blamed-covid-19-cluster-n1203821

[Liz CA]

Our county has been "open" for about 2.5 weeks now. No new cases / spikes have been reported so far.

The "spike" incidents could be misleading since supposedly people can be positive for the virus with little or no symptoms.

Edited May 24, 2020 by Liz CA

[Frances]

My county is the main one in my state where protests and large worship services have been held. We are still seeing an increase in cases, have the most per capita in the state, and are quickly catching up to the county that has the most cases but double our population. Contract tracing here is still trying to catch up and they generally haven’t been successful yet in tracing it back except in cases where people generally can’t leave a facility, e.g. prisons and nursing homes.

[EmseB]

3 minutes ago, Pawz4me said:

NC moved to Phase 1 of re-opening on May 8 and to Phase 2 on May 22. Yesterday we reported our highest one day spike in cases --1107 positive cases, which is around 250 more than our previous highest day. I suspect it's too soon to know if it's a true spike or just a weird blip, though.

NPR article

I skimmed the article quickly, but I don't think it touches on these things.

In some places, increased testing is a requirement of moving to different phases and case numbers are going to go up as testing increases, thus cases (even what looks like spikes in cases) by themselves is not a good metric. You want what percentage of tests are positive (under 10%, as I understand it, is good) and hospitalization rates, along with ICU capacity vs usage.

[Jean in Newcastle]

If a state governor is being careful, then counties that are being opened are those with the least likely odds to have a spike.  At least that is how it is working in our state.  Which is great. 

[katilac]

31 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

 Specifically I have seen posts written by people who contracted the virus through Mardi Gras in New Orleans, "The Winter Festival" in Miami, Florida.  

Neither of these are part of the opening back up, both occurred before the shutdowns. Mardi Gras was February 25 and the Winter Party Festival was March 4-10. 

[Jean in Newcastle]

1 minute ago, katilac said:

Neither of these are part of the opening back up, both occurred before the shutdowns. Mardi Gras was February 25 and the Winter Party Festival was March 4-10. 

Since the OP said "or" in the text of her post , I assumed that she was indeed asking about "areas opening, big parties or protests", not only big parties or protests only after areas opening.  I am well aware of the dates of those events. 

[gardenmom5]

We're not open - and our neighbors had a big party last night.  half a dozen of the cars are still here this morning.  (blocking where we put our trash bins.)

[historically accurate]

So I went looking for articles. 

I found this article that just looks at dates for reopening and current trend in cases. Some went up, some went down. Without much ability for contact tracing, I don't think we can dig down too deep. Unfortunately, I can't seem to find a date on it, but it is after May 10 : https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/497400-as-states-reopen-some-see-coronavirus-spikes

I found this article that calls 6 states out on "funny accounting", so maybe we can't really compare numbers between states? https://www.businessinsider.com.au/states-manipulate-coronavirus-data-reopen-2020-5 I was unfamiliar with Business Insider - it leans left-center, but has a high rating for factual reporting. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/business-insider/

This newspaper did a fact-check of Governor Cuomo's assertion that other countries are seeing spikes as they reopen. They rate it as true.  https://www.statesman.com/news/20200420/fact-check-did-countries-that-reopened-see-spike-in-coronavirus I think it's a local newspaper, but I am unsure.

Story on college students' off campus parties causing a spike at SUNY Plattsburgh: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/student-parties-lead-to-spike-in-coronavirus-cases/ar-BB14gJu2 I don't know how "open" NY is though, so I don't know if gatherings of a certain size are allowed or what.

Two hairstylists in Missouri exposed approximately 150 patrons as well as people at Walmart, Dairy Queen and a gym. I don't think they have numbers of how many people actually contracted it yet though. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242962271.html

[Pawz4me]

31 minutes ago, EmseB said:

I skimmed the article quickly, but I don't think it touches on these things.

In some places, increased testing is a requirement of moving to different phases and case numbers are going to go up as testing increases, thus cases (even what looks like spikes in cases) by themselves is not a good metric. You want what percentage of tests are positive (under 10%, as I understand it, is good) and hospitalization rates, along with ICU capacity vs usage.

Our testing has been pretty good for several weeks now. I don't think that's an issue at all in the case of yesterday's spike. Our secretary of health certainly seems to think that yesterday's spike is concerning, and she seems like a reliable source to me.

[katilac]

29 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Since the OP said "or" in the text of her post , I assumed that she was indeed asking about "areas opening, big parties or protests", not only big parties or protests only after areas opening.  I am well aware of the dates of those events. 

Other readers might not be aware of the dates, though. She specified "states that are opening up" so I wanted to clarify that those events were not part of opening up. These threads can get confusing 🙂

[Acadie]

In areas with inadequate testing and inadequate contact tracing, which is most of the country, it's impossible to know for sure.

But I do think some governors and state health directors are doing their best to gather accurate data and make decisions accordingly.

Other governors would rather obstruct the gathering and dissemination of accurate information. 

[Sk8ermaiden]

We're in Texas and we're pretty much open for business. The governer is opening up more almost every couple days - without waiting to see how the previous reopenings are going. 

I don't really trust any of the numbers to tell us anything at this point. Our hospital system here has been fine, and continues to be fine. The second my friends in the medical community start sounding the alarm on the things they're seeing or the numbers they're admitting, I'll rachet up the worry. 

[73349]

.

Edited October 2, 2020 by Carolina Wren

[rebcoola]

I haven't seen reports of huge spikes of large areas.  Their have been outbreaks in churches that have forced them to reclose after opening.

[vonfirmath]

24 minutes ago, Sk8ermaiden said:

We're in Texas and we're pretty much open for business. The governer is opening up more almost every couple days - without waiting to see how the previous reopenings are going. 

I don't really trust any of the numbers to tell us anything at this point. Our hospital system here has been fine, and continues to be fine. The second my friends in the medical community start sounding the alarm on the things they're seeing or the numbers they're admitting, I'll rachet up the worry. 

I’m in Texas too and it appears our governor is watching the numbers; at least he references them in his public speeches and this last time delayed some openings 8n a couple of particular areas that were having problems.  

[RootAnn]

2 hours ago, EmseB said:

In some places, increased testing is a requirement of moving to different phases and case numbers are going to go up as testing increases, thus cases (even what looks like spikes in cases) by themselves is not a good metric. You want what percentage of tests are positive (under 10%, as I understand it, is good) and hospitalization rates, along with ICU capacity vs usage.

More testing, in general, is going to mean catching more cases. So looking at percent positive seems to be a better metric along with the others @EmseB points out, above. (I would say under 5% is a "good" % positive rate, but we could quibble about anything above 0%, I'm sure!)

Georgia's numbers looked good for awhile, but some people have charged them with 'cooking the books' to make reopening look better. Several states have been including antibody results in total test #s--making their % positive rate lower. 

All the current metrics are lagging indicators due to how long it takes to show symptoms,  get tested, get results, get results reported, or die. 

[Scarlett]

I heard AR had a bunch of new cases traced back to a swim party.  

[ScoutTN]

My city will enter phase 2 tomorrow. All metrics are stable or improving so far, but it's early in the process.

The only spikes here recently  have been when testing was done at a poultry processing plant and a prison.

Lots of testing here, readily availble to all for many weeks. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, square_25 said:

I haven't seen any reports of out of control spread. I would imagine that protests being outdoors helped a lot, since it's now looking like outdoor spread is not happening much (or is at least not resulting in many superspreader events.)

Having looked at OpenTable data, restaurants are still not seating people at anywhere near full capacity. Churches have also been closed. Since our understanding now seem to be that indoor spread and recycled air are the biggest problems, I would be very interested to see what happens when restaurants and churches reopen.

Churches are the main thing I am interested in watching. Since the President made his demand Friday, and since I really have no idea how different states (or counties within states) are responding to that demand - I haven’t had time to worry about anything beyond my governor and my own paster - I am interested to see how it plays out. 

[katilac]

5 minutes ago, Quill said:

Churches are the main thing I am interested in watching. Since the President made his demand Friday, and since I really have no idea how different states (or counties within states) are responding to that demand - I haven’t had time to worry about anything beyond my governor and my own paster - I am interested to see how it plays out. 

We have quite a few churches around here that are quite crowded, with lots of singing and shouting. I'm worried about those. 

[PeterPan]

16 minutes ago, Quill said:

Since the President made his demand Friday

I missed it and am having trouble finding it. What was he wanting? I assume telling them to hurry up on opening things or lifting restrictions on churches?

That's really sad that some churches have had outbreaks. It makes sense it will happen. It's the scenario I've been most concerned about. Our church announced plans to reopen but they're waiting even longer and putting in LOTS of restrictions. (no loitering/hugging, no one over certain ages, split services, must preregister, sternly recommended to wear masks voluntarily, etc.) I won't be going till the mask gig is lifted, because that's me. But by the math, I think it has to be that way, sigh.

[Ottakee]

9 minutes ago, katilac said:

We have quite a few churches around here that are quite crowded, with lots of singing and shouting. I'm worried about those. 

It will be interesting to see on 2-3 weeks what, if anything, shows up.

[Pen]

2 hours ago, beckyjo said:

So I went looking for articles. 

I found this article that just looks at dates for reopening and current trend in cases. Some went up, some went down. Without much ability for contact tracing, I don't think we can dig down too deep. Unfortunately, I can't seem to find a date on it, but it is after May 10 : https://thehill.com/changing-america/well-being/prevention-cures/497400-as-states-reopen-some-see-coronavirus-spikes

I found this article that calls 6 states out on "funny accounting", so maybe we can't really compare numbers between states? https://www.businessinsider.com.au/states-manipulate-coronavirus-data-reopen-2020-5 I was unfamiliar with Business Insider - it leans left-center, but has a high rating for factual reporting. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/business-insider/

This newspaper did a fact-check of Governor Cuomo's assertion that other countries are seeing spikes as they reopen. They rate it as true.  https://www.statesman.com/news/20200420/fact-check-did-countries-that-reopened-see-spike-in-coronavirus I think it's a local newspaper, but I am unsure.

Story on college students' off campus parties causing a spike at SUNY Plattsburgh: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/student-parties-lead-to-spike-in-coronavirus-cases/ar-BB14gJu2 I don't know how "open" NY is though, so I don't know if gatherings of a certain size are allowed or what.

Two hairstylists in Missouri exposed approximately 150 patrons as well as people at Walmart, Dairy Queen and a gym. I don't think they have numbers of how many people actually contracted it yet though. https://www.miamiherald.com/news/coronavirus/article242962271.html

 

It is said that at least while cutting hair they apparently were wearing masks — as were clients apparently.

Maybe that will help keep transmissions down.   

[katilac]

5 minutes ago, Ottakee said:

It will be interesting to see on 2-3 weeks what, if anything, shows up.

We're still in Phase 1 of reopening, with lots of restrictions, so Phase 2 may be more telling. 

This weekend may yield some info for various places. They were closing parking lots at Tampa beaches bc they were so full, and the Ozarks and other outdoor areas were also jam packed. I'm hoping that they find being outside is pretty safe even with crowds. 

[Jaybee]

I have found it more and more difficult to find consensus on numbers, and making any sense of them. Maybe it's just my non-statistics brain, but it seems like everywhere I look, there is contradictory information, or at least people interpret the data so differently that I don't know what to believe about it's meaning.

[historically accurate]

20 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

I missed it and am having trouble finding it. What was he wanting? I assume telling them to hurry up on opening things or lifting restrictions on churches?

That's really sad that some churches have had outbreaks. It makes sense it will happen. It's the scenario I've been most concerned about. Our church announced plans to reopen but they're waiting even longer and putting in LOTS of restrictions. (no loitering/hugging, no one over certain ages, split services, must preregister, sternly recommended to wear masks voluntarily, etc.) I won't be going till the mask gig is lifted, because that's me. But by the math, I think it has to be that way, sigh.

At the beginning of a press conference, he called churches essential and said he would override governors who choose to shutter them.  https://apnews.com/8a34b6599602dbd751f2c1fcb93387fe

[Jaybee]

2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh yeah? What are you finding contradictory? 

I'm keeping a pretty careful eye on the statistics. I haven't seen any actual contradictory data so far, although of course people interpret it differently. 

Well, for one thing, I think you said you are a statistician. I am not. Which may just mean I am muddled. Every day, I check my state's updated reports on data. Then I hear the governor say things like we are handling this well, we have flattened the curve, etc. It doesn't seem like the hospitals are in any difficulty (but I'm not in them). But the numbers look to me like they are still rising at a rate I'm not comfortable with. Maybe it's due to increased testing of people, including asymptomatic ones. Maybe I'm not looking at enough statistics. It's more what I hear surrounding the numbers than actual charts. I'm tired, though, and it may just be me.

[Zebra]

3 minutes ago, Jaybee said:

Well, for one thing, I think you said you are a statistician. I am not. Which may just mean I am muddled. Every day, I check my state's updated reports on data. Then I hear the governor say things like we are handling this well, we have flattened the curve, etc. It doesn't seem like the hospitals are in any difficulty (but I'm not in them). But the numbers look to me like they are still rising at a rate I'm not comfortable with. Maybe it's due to increased testing of people, including asymptomatic ones. Maybe I'm not looking at enough statistics. It's more what I hear surrounding the numbers than actual charts. I'm tired, though, and it may just be me.

It's not just you.

It's a muddled mess.  I really feel for the people making the big decisions, I really do.

[historically accurate]

This just came across my FB, and I thought it fit here. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/499371-daily-coronavirus-death-count-more-than-doubles-in-ohio?fbclid=IwAR1SVquF5c-0Gbb7otgOk3erSxU5SzoRivYsKblJauDq4eiF1tWK_qs3kRA Ohio reported 84 deaths, about double the average, yesterday. It looks like they started to loosen restrictions on May 1, and loosened more on May 12. https://fox8.com/news/next-phase-of-responsible-restart-ohio-plan-begins-today-heres-what-will-reopen/ From what I understand 3ish weeks is approximately the time from infection to death which is the time from May 1-yesterday. This may be a statistical blip or it's possibly a spike related to re-opening - I don't think there is any way to know at this time. 

[Farrar]

The Atlantic pointed out this week that there's a pretty big gap between opening and seeing results. First there's the potential in a spike in cases - that's about a two week lag. But it often takes another two weeks on top of that for anyone to be sick enough to need medical care, so many people aren't getting tested until that point. So there's really more like a month lag between opening and seeing the results.

Plus, it's not a clear line. If a dozen places open, then only some will see spikes. Some may, just through sheer luck and possibly some other factors (like, say, no meat packing plants or more sparsely spaced population in general) not see any. Others, even with having good factors will end up with a super spreader event that infects a  hundred people  in a single go. It's just unpredictable.

[Guest]

57 minutes ago, PeterPan said:

I missed it and am having trouble finding it. What was he wanting? I assume telling them to hurry up on opening things or lifting restrictions on churches?

That's really sad that some churches have had outbreaks. It makes sense it will happen. It's the scenario I've been most concerned about. Our church announced plans to reopen but they're waiting even longer and putting in LOTS of restrictions. (no loitering/hugging, no one over certain ages, split services, must preregister, sternly recommended to wear masks voluntarily, etc.) I won't be going till the mask gig is lifted, because that's me. But by the math, I think it has to be that way, sigh.

As @beckyjo said, he gave a press conference in which he deemed all churches, synagogs, and mosques “essential” and demanded that every governor open churches “immediately, this weekend”. 

And if I comment any further, I will not be able to remain objective. So I’ll leave it at the facts. 

[Farrar]

1 minute ago, square_25 said:

Right. It's laggy and it's also very random. 

I'm very nervous that our contact tracing is so limited right now. We aren't learning where the spreading events are all that much yet. 

We're not invested in tracing as a nation. Too many Americans think it's an infringement on our liberty. I'm curious about the overlap between people who think they have a right to go out and get their hair cut after a possible CV exposure or with mild symptoms of something that might be CV vs. people who think a partner shouldn't have to disclose that they have an STI like before having sex with a partner, even unprotected. Because I have a feeling these are the same folks who lobbied for criminal sentences against people with HIV who had sex with others back in the day.

The lag and the randomness also mean that nothing is proof of anything. If a state opens and doesn't see a spike, that's not proof. And if a state continues stay at home orders and does see a spike, that's not proof either. It's circulating. It's a bit random. All you're doing is changing the odds, not eliminating the risk. If a state opens and stays healthy, they made a bad bet and won anyway - it happens. If a state stays closed and still sees a rise, they made a good bet and lost anyway. That also happens.

[rebcoola]

Tracing, people here are so against tracing most are just not getting tested.  Like if someone asks where to get tested they will have hundreds of people commenting not to get tested. 

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Farrar said:

The Atlantic pointed out this week that there's a pretty big gap between opening and seeing results. First there's the potential in a spike in cases - that's about a two week lag. But it often takes another two weeks on top of that for anyone to be sick enough to need medical care, so many people aren't getting tested until that point. So there's really more like a month lag between opening and seeing the results.

Plus, it's not a clear line. If a dozen places open, then only some will see spikes. Some may, just through sheer luck and possibly some other factors (like, say, no meat packing plants or more sparsely spaced population in general) not see any. Others, even with having good factors will end up with a super spreader event that infects a  hundred people  in a single go. It's just unpredictable.

I have also been wondering something about places that had few cases (or none) before the shutdown(s) went in place, especially where it is wide-open, quite rural: if the virus was barely or not existing in that area, and then people were shut inside for several weeks, and there has also been little or zero travel into the area from other regions, doesn’t that mean there *is* no virus to circulate? I mean, the virus doesn’t just come from thin air; someone has to introduce it to a region, right? So isn’t it reasonable to think there will be places - especially given in the whole of the US, there are lots of wide-open spaces - that will not or barely experience any uptick whatsoever, because the region simply does not have cases? 

I don’t know; I’m not the best mind for stats so I’m not sure exactly how that works, but I’m thinking of just my little corner of the US...some counties of this state, tiny though it is, have only 2 or 3 cases, or possibly zero, while the central maryland, populous and urban areas are chock-full of cases. My cousin, who is high risk and lives out in the western region, is very worried about things opening but I think her actual risk is quite small, especially since she is predominantly at home. There are very few cases in her county. I don’t see how that could change drastically even with people now going for haircuts, say, or going to a public park, even if it is a fairly busy park.  

[kiwik]

1 hour ago, RootAnn said:

More testing, in general, is going to mean catching more cases. So looking at percent positive seems to be a better metric along with the others @EmseB points out, above. (I would say under 5% is a "good" % positive rate, but we could quibble about anything above 0%, I'm sure!)

Georgia's numbers looked good for awhile, but some people have charged them with 'cooking the books' to make reopening look better. Several states have been including antibody results in total test #s--making their % positive rate lower. 

All the current metrics are lagging indicators due to how long it takes to show symptoms,  get tested, get results, get results reported, or die. 

You do have to look at % positive but you also have to take into account testing criteria. 5% is fine if you are only those you have reason to suspect have covid19 but terrible if you are do widespread testing of anyone with any flu like symptoms.

[Farrar]

15 minutes ago, Quill said:

I have also been wondering something about places that had few cases (or none) before the shutdown(s) went in place, especially where it is wide-open, quite rural: if the virus was barely or not existing in that area, and then people were shut inside for several weeks, and there has also been little or zero travel into the area from other regions, doesn’t that mean there *is* no virus to circulate? I mean, the virus doesn’t just come from thin air; someone has to introduce it to a region, right? So isn’t it reasonable to think there will be places - especially given in the whole of the US, there are lots of wide-open spaces - that will not or barely experience any uptick whatsoever, because the region simply does not have cases? 

I don’t know; I’m not the best mind for stats so I’m not sure exactly how that works, but I’m thinking of just my little corner of the US...some counties of this state, tiny though it is, have only 2 or 3 cases, or possibly zero, while the central maryland, populous and urban areas are chock-full of cases. My cousin, who is high risk and lives out in the western region, is very worried about things opening but I think her actual risk is quite small, especially since she is predominantly at home. There are very few cases in her county. I don’t see how that could change drastically even with people now going for haircuts, say, or going to a public park, even if it is a fairly busy park.  

I think so. Assuming people really did isolate. But when the re-opening happens... a lot of people go to the salon 45 minutes away. A delivery guy starts doing his circuit of stores that are two hours apart again. Or a woman who lives in the rural community has still been working an hour away at her deemed essential job in a small regional hospital. She goes to church choir. Boom. Super spreader.

[Ottakee]

54 minutes ago, Farrar said:

 

The lag and the randomness also mean that nothing is proof of anything. If a state opens and doesn't see a spike, that's not proof. And if a state continues stay at home orders and does see a spike, that's not proof either. It's circulating. It's a bit random. All you're doing is changing the odds, not eliminating the risk. If a state opens and stays healthy, they made a bad bet and won anyway - it happens. If a state stays closed and still sees a rise, they made a good bet and lost anyway. That also happens.

Then how do we make any sort of educated guess as to what is the best course of action.....for the virus, economy, mental health, etc?

[Frances]

19 minutes ago, Ottakee said:

Then how do we make any sort of educated guess as to what is the best course of action.....for the virus, economy, mental health, etc?

I think every state and country is already doing that in the best way they know how and using a variety of experts. My state has a task force, made up of a wide variety of professionals, advising the governor. In retrospect, we already know much of what we could have done better. Did you see the interesting article on Mongolia posted in another thread? They did amazing by taking it very seriously very early at a national level.

Edited May 24, 2020 by Frances

[Scarlett]

1 hour ago, rebcoola said:

Tracing, people here are so against tracing most are just not getting tested.  Like if someone asks where to get tested they will have hundreds of people commenting not to get tested. 

I am just trying to wrap my head around this.....so people are afraid if they get tested and are positive that someone will call from the Health Department and try to determine who all that person has exposed to the virus.  Is this basically what they are fearful of?

How about if their SIL gets tested and is positive and then tells the authorities she hung out with them on Memorial day? What do they think is going to happen?

[Ausmumof3]

2 hours ago, Quill said:

I have also been wondering something about places that had few cases (or none) before the shutdown(s) went in place, especially where it is wide-open, quite rural: if the virus was barely or not existing in that area, and then people were shut inside for several weeks, and there has also been little or zero travel into the area from other regions, doesn’t that mean there *is* no virus to circulate? I mean, the virus doesn’t just come from thin air; someone has to introduce it to a region, right? So isn’t it reasonable to think there will be places - especially given in the whole of the US, there are lots of wide-open spaces - that will not or barely experience any uptick whatsoever, because the region simply does not have cases? 

I don’t know; I’m not the best mind for stats so I’m not sure exactly how that works, but I’m thinking of just my little corner of the US...some counties of this state, tiny though it is, have only 2 or 3 cases, or possibly zero, while the central maryland, populous and urban areas are chock-full of cases. My cousin, who is high risk and lives out in the western region, is very worried about things opening but I think her actual risk is quite small, especially since she is predominantly at home. There are very few cases in her county. I don’t see how that could change drastically even with people now going for haircuts, say, or going to a public park, even if it is a fairly busy park.  

Yes or as we’ve seen and discussed with exponential growth for a whole lot of time if there’s extremely low numbers to start with it won’t look like much till it does.

[Pam in CT]

ProPublica recently did a good roundup of all 50 states' metrics that was posted over on the Politics board but I don't believe (? they all go so FAST ) has yet been shared here.  It doesn't *quite* answer the OP question of "have there been specific largescale events post-opening that have specifically been traced to subsequent spikes."  I don't believe that question will ever be answerable here in the US because, as several pp have noted, we are not doing real contact tracing.

But it packs a lot in -- vastly more than the headline arrows-map which I actually find distracting and unhelpful.  If you click on a particular state, it shows not just many of the metrics that have been discussed on this thread (testing prevalence per capita, positive test %, ICU utilization...) but also whether that state had a SIP order/ how many days since easing started, and more.

[Happy2BaMom]

I hate to be a pessimist, but I don't think we'll ever be able to trace more than a few outbreaks to any specific event(s) or gathering(s). We just don't have the infrastructure, the funding or the public willingness in this country to be able to do that.

There are definitely states experiencing spikes right now - NC, AL, ID, just to name a few - but whether or not that's related to any particular events is very difficult, if not impossible, to assess.

[PeterPan]

4 hours ago, beckyjo said:

This just came across my FB, and I thought it fit here. https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/499371-daily-coronavirus-death-count-more-than-doubles-in-ohio?fbclid=IwAR1SVquF5c-0Gbb7otgOk3erSxU5SzoRivYsKblJauDq4eiF1tWK_qs3kRA Ohio reported 84 deaths, about double the average, yesterday. It looks like they started to loosen restrictions on May 1, and loosened more on May 12. https://fox8.com/news/next-phase-of-responsible-restart-ohio-plan-begins-today-heres-what-will-reopen/ From what I understand 3ish weeks is approximately the time from infection to death which is the time from May 1-yesterday. This may be a statistical blip or it's possibly a spike related to re-opening - I don't think there is any way to know at this time. 

Fwiw, I wouldn't interpret too much till you know *where* those deaths occurred. There have been a lot of cases in the prisons and news sources have been saying our nursing/assisted living deaths represent 65-70% of the covid deaths in Ohio. 

[Joker]

26 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Lovely link, thank you. 

If anyone didn't believe me that NY is really not the biggest story anymore, you can look at the link above and note its 5 checkmarks ;-). It still does have more positive tests per capita than one might like, but it also does have a ton of tests per capita, period.

I saw 4 checkmarks for NY and that’s with a stay at home order for 63 days. Is yours showing different? My state, Indiana, also has 4 checkmarks but has had no stay at home order for 20 days. Someone here stated earlier that Minnesota was reaching ICU capacity but they had a check for ICU beds available. I’m not sure yet if I like the link.

[PeterPan]

4 hours ago, rebcoola said:

Tracing, people here are so against tracing most are just not getting tested.  Like if someone asks where to get tested they will have hundreds of people commenting not to get tested. 

I said that would happen and people thought it was nuts. But there you go. Think through the logic. You report and your friends now can't go to work when they need money. Of course there's going to be pressure (internal or peers) not to report, not to test. 

I suppose they could even verify that's happening if they look for shifting percentages on tested positive and deaths. If the deaths go up relative to the overall positive rate, then you might be seeing that pulling back where people are choosing not to go for testing to avoid participating in contact tracing.

I just think the whole thing is interesting, because we've got a battle of cultures and minds here and we're seeing it play out. The gov't keeps saying they can make people do things and the people keep finding ways around it. I'm not saying what's moral or what I would do, just that it makes total sense why it's happening.