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Our shelter in place just got extended through May 30 and people are DONE


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3 minutes ago, square_25 said:


I do think we can stop everyone from getting it before there are treatments or vaccines, yes. In other words, we can contain the spread somewhat. 

I suppose the key word here is "everyone."

I never believed "everyone" was going to get it in the first place.  Even on the Diamond Princess, the literal petri dish of it all....only like 20% tested positive.  

I believe "everyone" will get it *EVENTUALLY*

I am very onboard with *slow* the spread.

Very not onboard with trying to *stop* the spread.  

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1 hour ago, happysmileylady said:

So far, I think Ohio's plan is probably going in the right direction, though it's probably not perfect.

And I think a plan that intends to maintain SAH status quo for another month, that's probably headed in the wrong direction.

As I don't know the specific details about specific states, I can't comment on what each state is doing individually.

Basically , start slow.....start based on your specific area's situation (for example, areas that DO have enough PPE and bed space, vs places that still don't) but generally, start sooner rather than later.  

 

I think Vermont is doing a pretty good job so far. Our governor is starting to loosen up restrictions and plans on easing them weekly as long as we don't start spiking cases. He's calling it "a quarter turn of the spigot" or something like that. So 2 Fridays ago, he allowed landscapers and construction workers in teams of no more than 2 back to work along with people that work in low contact businesses, again up to 2 per office. Last Friday, he upped the number allowed to 5. Also, farmer's markets, garden supply shops and construction shops (I may have missed another type of store) can reopen for curbside pickup. He's hoping to loosen a bit more this Friday. 

He's relying on the Health commissioner and his team for guidance and has sent out extra unemployment checks for $1200 for the people that are struggling without jobs or with reduced hours right now. 

They've also started contact tracing for everyone that is positive and ramping up testing even more. 

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50 minutes ago, StellaM said:

Nobody should be asking for elective procedures to open up unless nurses and doctors have adequate, effective PPE. 

No-one.

That's highly unethical.

But elective is a highly subjective thing.   I really need to see a specialist about a medical issue that is getting worse....can't get in until July as they aren't seeing patients/doing tests now.

My primary is doing what she can to help me and is trying to order tests.

They are "elective" in that the chance I will die by not having this test in the next week is very small.....BUT, there is also a larger risk of longer term health issues if they don't discover the reason behind what is going on ....and hopefully soon.

Elective might include cancer screenings, tests, etc that might not lead to death this week, but delaying them a few weeks/months could well affect the ultimate outcome for those patients.

I had a friend that (before covid) had an elective hysterectomy.  It was to the point that her choice was hysterectomy or blood transfusions....yet it was labeled as "elective".

There are also life enhancing procedures for children that NOT done in a timely manner makes them less effective long term.

I agree though that there are some truly elective procedures that certainly can wait.

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1 hour ago, happysmileylady said:

Eventually, it's probably going to kill millions anyway.  It's just a matter of what speed is acceptable.  

 

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

I haven't joined the "rebels" yet, but I'm actually leaning toward the "Bring it on" stage, honestly. With no vaccine, the only way out of this thing is natural immunity. Since it's a novel virus, the only way to get immunity is to get the virus and recover. The only way to build the herd immunity we need to protect society is for a whole lot of people to become immune. 

 

4 hours ago, GoodGrief1 said:

 We need to accept that we are likely all going to get sick with this at some point and for most of us it will be okay. Sickness and death is always going to be a part of life.

But here we are now. Yes, people need to have the opportunity to work if they wish. We still need to protect the vulnerable, though now we have wasted a tremendous amount of resources that could have gone toward that endeavor. Yes, there is going to be a spike in occurrences of this particular illness. But then we will have fewer cases. That is the way herd immunity works.

 

70% of the US population is 220 million people, times an IFR of 1% = 2.2 million dead. That's the math. Which part of the math do people think is wrong?

Do people think we can somehow "protect the vulnerable" enough to bring the IFR down to 0.5%? Because that's still over 1 million dead. And there's no evidence that any country that isn't in extreme lockdown (like Norway) has been able to "protect the vulnerable" — like at all. And now we're reading about serious illnesses and fatalities in young children, strokes and heart attacks in 20-60 yr olds who seemed perfectly healthy, etc. And 40% of the US population has some kind of underlying condition that puts them at high risk. None of the people on this board, or in any news program, article, or YouTube video I have seen, have been willing to define who does (and does not) count as "vulnerable" and provide a plan that will protect those people despite the fact that no other country has accomplished it.

How do you handle 1-2 million deaths and not overwhelm the medical system? How do we get enough PPE to handle 10-20 million extra hospital admissions, with 1-2 million ICU admissions? How do morgues and funeral homes and cemeteries handle an extra 1-2 million deaths? 

How does the economy rebound when 20,000-30,000 people per week are dying? (and that's assuming the deaths could be evenly spread out over the course of a year)

I would love it if someone would please explain the math that lets the US quickly get to herd immunity, where 220 million people have been infected, without massive loss of life.

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6 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

Well I don’t think, at this point, there is any reasonable path forward that most people could accept and live under for a year or two that wouldn’t involve loss of life in the >5 million range.  Between travel and exposure and waves of it going through nursing and rehab facilities, I’m pretty sure that whether it’s in six months or the next six weeks it’s a fact.  The likelihood of a vaccine, let alone an effective one, looks lower and lower at this juncture.

Are you saying you think the US is looking at >5 million deaths in the next year, and there's nothing we can do about it?

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2 hours ago, Bootsie said:

The CDC has training and protocols regrading disease and health.  That is very important, but it is one consideration of a leader.  I can see the CDC focused on preventing disease and suggesting measures that will best do that.  A leader also has to be concerned about whether people in the community will be able to eat--which depends on everything from tractor companies making parts to packaging of food to transporting food.  A leader has to be concerned about the emotional health of people.  A leader has to be concerned about the eduation of children, and many other things. 

Meteorologists may be very good at telling us what the models are saying about landfall of a hurricane; but the meteorologists are not in charge of the emergency plan for a city.  There are many other voices from people who are experts in other areas that need to have their voices heard.  Traffic speacilsts need to provide input on whether an evacuation plan will work or if we risk having thousands of cars sitting on the highway.  Medical professionals need to provide input as to the health risks involved in transporting some patients for evacuation.  Economists need to provide input into what will happen to prices and availability of supplies.  I think we would benefit from a broader, cross-disciplinary approach to dealing with this crisis. 

I don’t disagree. But you also need leaders willing to consult and listen to trained professionals and that have the temperament and character to lead in times of crisis.

Edited to add that in Sweden, one of the countries to remain relatively open, their response was almost completely driven by the Public Health Authority, not politicians. Per their constitution, politicians can’t interfere with it.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/28/world/europe/sweden-coronavirus-herd-immunity.html?action=click&module=Spotlight&pgtype=Homepage

Edited by Frances
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5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

Our order was recently extended to May 16th (at the earliest), but the pattern has been to add time in two week increments, so I predict it will soon be extended to May 30th (or at least through Memorial Day). I'm definitely seeing more and more evidence that people are fed up. I live in the mountains, and personally have had no trouble abiding with the stay-home order (I've mostly enjoyed it), but I'm currently leaning more toward the "enough already" group. 

 

I hear your frustration.

I want to suggest that you think things out and then write out a letter with your best  cogent ideas to your state elected government entities. 

I am commenting on a few points below where it jumps out at me that you need to do some rethinking. 

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

 I could be persuaded back toward supporting the lock-down if given more information from those in charge.

 

I definitely would suggest you express this to your Governor—a desire for more clear information and sense of what you are waiting for as an exit plan.  

Do you know what your area’s growth rate is?  How well set and supplied your hospitals are?  PPE for first responders? 

Are cleaning supplies back in stock? TP? 

 

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

Our (democrat) governor (New Mexico) just keeps tacking on two weeks at a time, saying to hold out for two more weeks, then two more weeks, then two more weeks, but never says exactly what we're waiting for, what the exit plan is, or what difference two more weeks is going to make. I don't understand why they can't give us some pegs on which to hang our hats, some benchmarks we can see with our own eyes, rather than just trying to keep the fear level up. I don't appreciate being kept in the dark. (I see from this thread that some government officials are being more transparent. I would appreciate the same for our state, given our sparse population, and arid environment.

 

Again, I think expressing all that is good.  Sparse population is important.  

Arid environment seems actually to be the opposite of what studies show.  Humid is better for control of the virus. 

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

I feel like our government sees us as little children or "pretty little wives" who "shouldn't worry our pretty little heads", but just trust and let the experts take care of things. We're not children, and we're perfectly capable of understanding what is going on. I can look at this thing and see that we're looking at months, not weeks. The flatter the curve, the longer the duration. Simple math. Why do they keep saying "two more weeks", over and over again? If we're going to be closed all summer, then say so, so we can plan accordingly. If they don't see a safe way to open schools in the fall, then say so. 

 

I know it seems hard to accept this, but there is a good chance that they homes don’t know. That they truly hope to be open sooner rather than later.

And they may be watching what happens elsewhere. 

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

Our daughter is in private school, and we need to decide by May 15th whether to keep her enrolled, or pull her out to homeschool her. That decision is heavily weighted by whether she will being doing school online or in person).

People are also more and more fed up with inconsistencies in what activities are considered "essential" verses what is really essentially safe.  A mayor of a small town nearby (Grants, NM) is openly opposing the governor's shelter order, encouraging the small businesses in his town to open (with physical distancing procedures), and opening the town golf course. The town sheriff was shopping at the pawn shop (which is only allowing one customer in at a time, and is cleaning everything they touch when they leave). The mayor was directing the news camera to pan over the vast golf course, saying "You want social distancing? How's that for social distancing?"  (20 people total on the course, the whole day). The state police brought a cease and desist order, but the mayor said he's gonna keep letting people play golf, even if he has to sue the state. 

 

I think writing to government with an appeal to start opening things that are not essential, but that can be done safely with your sparse population makes sense. 

 

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

He was asking the question, "Why is it dangerous to work at City Hall, but okay to work in Walmart?" 

 

It is dangerous to work at Walmart. 

People are considered to need food as available from Walmart.  

That’s why store workers are being considered “heroes”. 

I am sorry to hear you have a mayor who does not understand that.  I hope someone will help him figure out the difference between food and most other goods.  

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

Another thing happening that the government doesn't talk about is that the healthcare system (outside the ICU) is almost completely shut down. No one gets any health services unless they have COVID, or under extreme emergencies. Medical professionals are being furloughed. Doctors, dentists, and eye doctors' offices are all closed. Entire floors of hospitals are closed down.

 

That too seems worth writing about in terms of things that should open sooner rather than later.   

Our state is loosening some of those restrictions as well as telemedicine being more available apparently. 

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

Only the most critical patients are getting any care at all. I know one person who was in extreme pain for two weeks, but was sent home from the ER twice before finally being allowed an MRI, which showed stones in her bile duct, as well as her gall bladder). Other people have had their needed surgeries and procedures postponed indefinitely (My FIL had cataract surgery scheduled in March - "elective" doesn't mean boob jobs). They say they don't want to "overwhelm" the healthcare system, but they're killing it instead. The doctors' offices were already so backed up in the US that they were scheduling out 4-6 months, or longer. When they open back up, they will be backed up for a year or more!  Talk about overwhelmed!

I haven't joined the "rebels" yet, but I'm actually leaning toward the "Bring it on" stage, honestly. With no vaccine, the only way out of this thing is natural immunity. Since it's a novel virus, the only way to get immunity is to get the virus and recover. The only way to build the herd immunity we need to protect society is for a whole lot of people to become immune. I actually believe my family had it back in December, but without a reliable, readily available antibody test, there's no way to know for sure. Here in NM, the vast majority (over 95%) of people who have gotten COVID-19 have recovered at home, with no hospitalization, and our numbers in general are relatively good.

 

Im glad NM is doing well!  (Aside from Native Americans maybe ?) 

Antibody testing should become better and more available. Maybe contact University of NM and find out whether they have any antibody testing. Or know where you might be able to do that.  Maybe even join a study. 

5 hours ago, Suzanne in ABQ said:

I think most people are just willing to take the risk. Let the high-risk people stay home. Let the healthy people with strong immune systems get it, recover, become immune, and build that herd immunity sooner, rather than later. 

Remember Chicken Pox parties? Back before there was the varicella vaccine, moms would make play dates with contagious chicken pox kids in order to expose their own kids to the virus. It was well known that everyone was going to get it eventually, and getting it young was much preferable to getting it as an adult, or even as a teen. Getting it on purpose gave some sense of control over the situation. 

 

CV19 is a totally different order of magnitude for adults than Chicken Pox, and probably a totally different order of magnitude for children also.  Sickness is different, deaths different. A lot different. 

if adults had immunity, and if we knew that children could get sick and get immunity,  that could make some sense.

However it is a novel illness for adults, we don’t know if children get immunity, and with the strange UK Kawasaki syndrome and blood clots and strokes in younger adults, CV19 may be even more dangerous at all ages than we thought.  Many adults, even relatively young ones end up seriously sick.

 

 However, if you are having cabin fever, I recommend volunteering with something like meals on wheels so that you can start getting out while being helpful. 

 

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39 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

70% of the US population is 220 million people, times an IFR of 1% = 2.2 million dead. That's the math. Which part of the math do people think is wrong?

April 3, 2020, Research Update

This report from Imperial College in London and others provides updated estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR, deaths/all infections, including mild and asymptomatic) and the case fatality ratio (CFR, death/symptomatic or confirmed infections). They estimate a mean duration from symptom onset to death of 18 days and for survivors the time from symptom onset to hospital discharge of 25 days. They do a good job of trying to adjust for biases in the data attributable to oversampling of severe cases early in a pandemic, failure to adjust for age, and the lag between case identification and death. The overall IFR is estimated to be 0.66%, and the overall CFR is 1.38%. The CFR increases from 0.06% for those in their 20s to 0.15% in their 30s, 0.30% in their 40s, 1.3% in their 50s, 4.0% in their 60s, 8.6% in their 70s, and 13.4% for those 80 and older. The proportion hospitalized increases from 1% in their 20s to 4% in their 40s to 12% in their 60s.

Written by Mark H. Ebell, MD, MS, on March 31, 2020. (Source: Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. [Published online March 30, 2020]. https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7.pdf)




As more testing is done, I believe the IFR will continue to drop.

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54 minutes ago, Corraleno said:

70% of the US population is 220 million people, times an IFR of 1% = 2.2 million dead. That's the math. Which part of the math do people think is wrong?

For me, this ignores 2 parts

The first is time.  Which is what "flatten the curve" is supposed to buy us.  Time.  Lets presume 2.2 million dead (which, I absolutely believe we *will* get there at some point.)  The question is....how long till we get there?

Second part it ignores is the percentage of cases that are completely asymptomatic, as well as the very mild cases that aren't tested.  In Ohio, as of today, less than 400 of our cases are in the 0 to 19 age range.  Bull.  All that means is that less than 400 kids and teens have enough symptoms to get tested.  We don't have an accurate overall IFR.  The math can't be right if the numbers used to create are wrong.  

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https://www.virology.ws/2020/04/05/infection-fatality-rate-a-critical-missing-piece-for-managing-covid-19/

But is that 3% infection ratio accurate, and if not, what is the real number?  To understand this, we need to understand the difference between case fatality rate (CFR) and infection fatality rate (IFR).  CFR is the ratio of the number of deaths divided by the number of confirmed (preferably by nucleic acid testing) cases of disease.  IFR is the ratio of deaths divided by the number of actual infections with SARS-CoV-2.  Because nucleic acid  testing is limited and currently available primarily to people with significant indications of and risk factors for covid-19 disease, and because a large number of infections with SARS-CoV-2 result in mild or even asymptomatic disease, the IFR is likely to be significantly lower than the CFR.  The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at the University of Oxford currently estimates the CFR globally at 0.51%, with all the caveats pertaining thereto.  CEBM estimates the IFR at 0.1% to 0.26%, with even more caveats pertaining thereto.

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1 hour ago, KungFuPanda said:

I hit refresh and lost my quotes. 😟

Here are the random thoughts that I can remember.

Maybe this should be a poll with a map feature, but do most of the people you know really get their science news from mainstream news outlets and politicians? My closest IRL friends get their basic news from the NYT, WaPo, WSJ, NPR and -- recently -- our Governor's daily COVID newsletter.  My husband is in biotech/public health circles, and also on the BoD of one of the local hospital networks, so he reads journal articles, which he occasionally tips over my way.  I get a lot of science info referrals from a COVID thread over on the Politics board as well.

What are your opinions on the WHO's statement that there is no scientific evidence that contracting the virus protects you from getting it again in the future and does this change how you feel about your "get it over with" plan?  Well, I dunno that my "opinion" much matters. The statement is based on evidence from both South Korea and China that a significant number of patients have had the disease, recovered, and thereafter fallen ill a second time.  The overall issue is discussed here, and there are links in that article to a journal article on the South Korean data.  It is an issue of enormous concern: both the Let Er Rip "Herd Immunity" hopes AND the Slow the Spread Until a Vaccine is Developed hopes BOTH depend on immunity holding. If immunity doesn't hold, we're in Thanos' Snap end-times whatever path we take.

Do you think that the goverment-required shut down means that if that restriction was lifted that all businesses would open?  How do you see this working out with so many kids out of school? No. Beyond mandated closures, and even beyond parents who need to care for kids suddenly out of school, there are labor issues that will continue to interrupt the economy (the virus will continue to rip through particular essential parts of our food supply chain and distribution networks), there are demand issues that will continue to interrupt the economy (a lot of folks just won't WANT to go on planes or to baseball games or concerts), there are liability issues that will continue to depress the economy (summer camps?  Really?), there are direct COVID-related cost issues that will continue to strain the economy (the COVID personal bankruptcy stories haven't yet emerged. What are the bills for a 3-week ICU stay?  How many American families can afford their high-deductible plan's deductible?   or hospitals and other medical practices' additional costs in PPE and testing and sanitation protocols)   The economic costs are HUGE whether we go Let Er Rip or the other way.  We're at real risk of Great Depression either way.  That's the virus, not the policy.

When you are calculating the damage to the economy caused by the shutdown are you subtracting the economic damage the virus would do all by itself? Well, I dunno about "subtracting" -- I haven't seen any real effort to calculate a real number under either Let Er Rip or Slow the Spread Until a Vaccine.  But I'm quite conscious that the economic toll will be enormous either way.

 

This is not a trap.  You can answer.  I don't know how this will play out either.  I'm just trying to keep people alive over here and I do understand that people need to eat to stay alive.  I'm not feeling much of a political divide where I live.  EVERYONE is complying with the mask guidelines in public places of business and lots of people are now wearing them for walks around the neighborhood.  (My mother in another state reports that only half the people wear masks in grocery stores near her.) I live in a blue state with a Republican governor, so it's possible that the people most politically inclined to balk about the restrictions mind it less when their guy is telling them what to do.  It's also possible that I have no idea what's really going on because I've been on house arrest for 45 days. 

These are good questions.  Perhaps you could spin a new thread structured as a poll.  (My own thoughts in purple.)

 

 

49 minutes ago, AmandaVT said:

I think Vermont is doing a pretty good job so far. Our governor is starting to loosen up restrictions and plans on easing them weekly as long as we don't start spiking cases. He's calling it "a quarter turn of the spigot" or something like that. So 2 Fridays ago, he allowed landscapers and construction workers in teams of no more than 2 back to work along with people that work in low contact businesses, again up to 2 per office. Last Friday, he upped the number allowed to 5. Also, farmer's markets, garden supply shops and construction shops (I may have missed another type of store) can reopen for curbside pickup. He's hoping to loosen a bit more this Friday. 

He's relying on the Health commissioner and his team for guidance and has sent out extra unemployment checks for $1200 for the people that are struggling without jobs or with reduced hours right now. 

They've also started contact tracing for everyone that is positive and ramping up testing even more. 

This all makes good sense, and once we get past the peak (sigh....) I expect we'll do something along these lines as well.

 

The construct of putting in a "plan" that is hooked to public health metrics, as opposed to dates, is hard.  The longing for a definitive DATE in answer to the plaintive question when will this be over is really, really understandable.  

But a plan based on "after fourteen days of decreased number of new cases" is a plan.  It's a plan rooted in the behavior of the virus rather than the (understandable) frustrations of people.

Which does not care if we're "done."  The virus, in fact, will be DELIGHTED for us all to throng back to restaurants and planes and baseball games.

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16 minutes ago, Meriwether said:

The Centre for Evidence-Based Medicine (CEBM) at the University of Oxford currently estimates the CFR globally at 0.51%, with all the caveats pertaining thereto.  CEBM estimates the IFR at 0.1% to 0.26%, with even more caveats pertaining thereto.

 

Yeah, you can certainly get nice low IFRs by deducting the deaths of anyone with preexisting conditions, claiming that they shouldn't count because they died "with" CV19, not "of" CV19. That will instantly exclude a huge percentage of US deaths, given how many Americans have underlying conditions that make them higher risk. The idea that those deaths shouldn't "count," because they may have eventually died of the preexisting condition anyway, is pretty offensive though. 

The German study that showed an IFR of 0.37% was a best-case scenario, with extensive testing and a healthcare system that was not overwhelmed — which we are simply not going to be able to match in the US. Even with an IFR of 0.5% we are looking at over a million dead, which will absolutely overwhelm the healthcare system and probably lead to additional deaths from other causes.

I guess there are some people who consider >1 million deaths either acceptable or inevitable no matter what we do. But I don't think most of the people who think this is all overblown and we need to reopen "so everyone can catch it and get it over with" have the faintest idea of what kind of numbers that would entail. 

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3 hours ago, Arcadia said:

My neighbors are still hoping and they are frustrated that schools are still closed even though they were the ones petitioning for schools to be closed. A neighbor honestly thought schools will reopen in May for our county when SIP ends. People are still hoping June ACT won't be cancelled.

Most of the frustration that people face due to the SIP is because they assume, falsely, that those who told them to shelter in place have the ability to make this virus go away and also to tell us when it is safe to head out to our normal lives. The County Health Officer, the mayors, the Governor, the infectious disease experts can not give us a "cure" for this and tell us to go on our merry ways and live life as before. All they can do at this point is to predict how the disease will affect our local areas and perhaps help with the procurement of PPE and ventilators. The people working on the vaccination are not the same people as the public policy makers. Over the past weeks new segments of the population have been found vulnerable (e.g. blood clots in young people) and there are several mutations occurring in parts of the world which makes it even more of a longer product development cycle for the vaccination developers. I see no prospects of a vaccine for the next 18 months, at the very least.

In a good year, my local public school has 4-5 strep throat exposure notices and a few hand-foot-and-mouth exposure notices, not to mention the kids who come to school with the flu and spread it to others (there is a vaccine available for it and it is a known disease).  Kids will be kids and they cannot be policed for the 6+ hours that they are in school and the time they spend in aftercare settings. So, schools will become the hotbed of infection no matter how careful everyone is. I am highly skeptical that schools will reopen in california in the Fall without an acceptable method of treatment (an effective drug, enough ventilators, PPE and hopefully a vaccine).

I think that ACT and SAT will move to online proctored versions of the exam (if they have not decided to do so already).

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3 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

Most of the frustration that people face due to the SIP is because they assume, falsely, that those who told them to shelter in place have the ability to make this virus go away and also to tell us when it is safe to head out to our normal lives.

Neighbors who migrated from Asia are comparing the SIP here and Asian countries. I don’t think anyone expect the virus to go away but people expect restrictions to loosen when the caseloads are relatively low (nurses being furloughed). They also kind of expect California to ramp up production of PPE instead of depending on China. 

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3 hours ago, OKBud said:

Probably when someone in your own family needs to be intubated but they can't be because of a lack of supply and personel, no?

 

If you are going to bring it down to a personal level then you could also say people will draw then line when their loved one commits suicide or is murdered by a spouse or dies from cancer that was left untreated for too long.  That game could be played both ways you know.

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37 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

Most of the frustration that people face due to the SIP is because they assume, falsely, that those who told them to shelter in place have the ability to make this virus go away and also to tell us when it is safe to head out to our normal lives.

No, of course they don't have the ability to make this virus go away.  But you know what?  Competent leadership could have implemented widespread testing, quarantining, and contact tracing in JANUARY (along with production of PPE and ventilators), and we might very well have avoided all of this.  

That is insanely frustrating.  

The incompetence and arrogance.  

ETA:  A forum of homeschool moms, operating on publicly available information, started organizing to prepare our own households for pandemic in January and February.  It's really not too much to ask the federal government to use their resources to do the same.  

Sorry, that's probably out of line.  

Edited by Terabith
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4 hours ago, square_25 said:

 

The thing Cuomo has said that makes sense to me is that if you open one area and keep another closed, everyone from the closed area will flock to the open area, which is about the opposite of what you want (and the closed area is going to be the sick area, too!) On the other hand, it does seem excessive to keep an area without a huge problem closed indefinitely. So I think you'd have to think carefully about how to orchestrate that. That's why people want so much testing first -- because they'd really like to make sure everyone who's sick is actually staying home and not going out and infecting everyone, including people from places that don't have outbreaks. 

It looks like Cuomo is planning to open up upstate NY first, probably on May 15th when the PAUSE runs out. New York is a big state, so that makes sense to me. And I really really hope that it won't mean that upstate gets swamped, because I'm sure their hospitals are even less equipped to handle this than NYC's, which didn't do so well. 

Hah, some coastal cities are DENSE. It's hard to keep people from mingling. 

 

4 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

🤣

The idea of people "flocking" from Montgomery County OH to Preble County OH was kinda funny to me.  

In most of fly over country, there ain't much about the "open" areas to flock to.  Lotta flat, hopefully soon a lotta corn and wheat, not much to do but stare at corn and wheat.  (probably why they call us fly over country.  )

Tennessee is opening up but the hotspots have different restrictions than the rest of the state. And the idea of people from Nashville driving to Franklin county tn to go to Walmart unfettered is silly. 
 

I don’t think the restrictions will be drastically different though. It’s not like folks are holding concerts in podunk tn. 
 

our restrictions are based on case numbers. When the numbers dip for 14 days we move on to the next level.

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8 minutes ago, OKBud said:

Covid 19 is known to beat women, encourage suicide, and inculcate cancer? 

You're playing a VERY different game. 

 

No, but it is very well known that the lock down is excerbating all those issues. Many of us know people who have been affected in such ways. So I think it's important to keep the broad picture.

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https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/vacaville-salon-reopens-despite-stay-at-home-order/2280820/

“A Vacaville hair salon owner testing the boundaries of the shelter-at-home rules reopened her shop Tuesday.

Lia Rivera, the woman who runs Hairendipity, said she understands the seriousness of defying the order, but she is willing to take the risk of a $1,000 fine. What she said she’s not willing to do is continue to stay at home while her business loses thousands of dollars.

“It’s a survival tactic at this point,” Rivera said.

It’s been six weeks since Rivera was forced to close down her salon and let go of her staff. On Tuesday, she gave up on waiting for Gov. Gavin Newsom to give her the OK to open up for business.

“I think it’s a reckless thing to do to give us such loose, vague guidelines over what’s happening,” Rivera said.

Newsom on Tuesday said hair salons fall under the state’s third phase of reopening California businesses. The state is currently in the first phase.

“You’re now talking about several months that our businesses have been closed down,” Rivera said. “What do you expect us all to do?””

 

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CA wants kids back in school by late July. Churches will open in phase 3, and some of these churches are mega churches, while musicians can’t hold concerts until phase 4? Some of those music venues are significantly smaller than churches. 

let’s just hope Brits are right and they will have a vaccine as early as this fall. 

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I think some of the reluctance to comply may stem from the fact that scientists cannot agree either about how dangerous this is (many have had it and survived), how many people may have had it already with mild or no symptoms, how it is contracted (with certainty) as evidenced by the words from the scientific community "it's like flying a plane while we are building it."

Local politicians from my area are submitting a request to delegate the decision to open up certain venues to county government. At this point it's just a petition as I understand it but we'll see how far that will go. 

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3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

You can't get a good estimate of how many people have it in most states, but you can tell from the antibody testing that most places only have single percent positives. Once it's single percent positives, you can't tell exactly what percent it is due to issues with false positives. But you can tell that it's not, say, widespread. 

 

What little testing there is available (unless you pay for it out of pocket at private lab) in my area has to be ordered by a physician even the antibody test. Not sure how much date we have here for antibody testing. I looked into antibody testing and found out I'd have to convince a physician of its necessity. Have not done that yet.

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26 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:


let’s just hope Brits are right and they will have a vaccine as early as this fall. 

Brits and the rest of the world may have a vaccine as early as the fall.  US declined to be part of it because our pharmaceutical companies wouldn't have a monopoly.  So we may not have access to it.  

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21 minutes ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

 

Can you help me understand the logic in thinking that the lockdown is to blame for hospitals cancelling certain medical procedures?  Here doctors are cancelling because of two reasons: lack of PPE, and concerns about people being exposed in the hospital or bringing in COVID and exposing others.  It seems to me that both of these concerns would be worse if the lockdown was lifted, and the number of cases rose.  

 

Yes, the term lock down is many faceted. In our 1st phase of "opening" we opened more of the health care sector. Not all due to PPE and I have no complaints of that. Throughout this thread I have favored strategic metered opening. 

I was just pointing out that using the premise that people will draw the line when their loved one is at stake can go both ways and should probably be left out of the over all argument. 

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1 hour ago, Arcadia said:

They also kind of expect California to ramp up production of PPE instead of depending on China. 

But manufacturing jobs left America a long time ago for various reasons. What we are seeing now is a bunch of local companies scrambling to make ventilators and PPE when it is really hard to turn on a dime and convert American manufacturing assembly lines to make so much PPE or ventilators to meet demand from a pandemic. They are doing a heroic job to change their production line to make more PPE, but, I doubt that there will be enough made such that there is supply for every citizen who leaves their home to conduct outside business. We need to import from somewhere. The politicians are too polite and use the euphemism "Supply Chain" to repeatedly refer to the fact that China is the supplier of what we consume. I am privileged that I can afford to buy $2 masks, but, I am not so sure if everyone can afford that in California. 

On a related note, do you know if Wuhan has opened up its schools already?

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On 4/28/2020 at 3:49 PM, Terabith said:

Okay, true.  Clearly it CAN go on indefinitely.  And of course they shouldn't do elective procedures without proper PPE.  But it will cause major hardship, pain, dysfunction, and loss of life if it goes on for long.  Cancer surgeries are being put off.  Procedures to relieve pain aren't being done, in an era when opioids won't be prescribed either.  

I'm not sure if the issue is that the PPE isn't there or if they are worried about conserving PPE for a surge in covid cases.  Which is an entirely rational thing to do, but again, when it's very possible it will be July or August before it gets here, that's a long time to leave people in medical limbo.  

I mean, what I'd LIKE to have happened, is for the federal government to have invoked the Defense Production Act back in January and started producing PPE in large quantities.  But, clearly that didn't happen.  I'm not entirely clear that anyone is manufacturing it now.  As far as I can tell, states are just scrambling to order this scarce resource from all over the country and it's getting confiscated.  

It's conserving PPE. It's making sure there's enough space for covid patients. It's planning for testing. It's ensuring there's a plan for surgeries on covid+, unknowns and negatives with no crossover. My state is opening up surgeries, medical and dental offices on Monday. Once again, it's not like flipping a light switch.

Hospitals are going to have to be able to test everyone that is scheduled for surgery. They have to do it early enough to get results back before surgery, but not so early that patients can contract it in the meantime. Patients are going to have to go through some (what I would call) transplant level hardships to get surgery. They can't go out after getting tested. If test results aren't back in time before surgery they will have to weigh how urgent the surgery is and may be rescheduled. They will continue to restrict visitors. It's not going to always go smoothly and people won't be happy a lot of the time. But that's what it will take for HCW and patients to be safe.

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4 hours ago, KungFuPanda said:

I hit refresh and lost my quotes. 😟

Here are the random thoughts that I can remember.

Maybe this should be a poll with a map feature, but do most of the people you know really get their science news from mainstream news outlets and politicians? 

What are your opinions on the WHO's statement that there is no scientific evidence that contracting the virus protects you from getting it again in the future and does this change how you feel about your "get it over with" plan?

Do you think that the goverment-required shut down means that if that restriction was lifted that all businesses would open?  How do you see this working out with so many kids out of school? 

When you are calculating the damage to the economy caused by the shutdown are you subtracting the economic damage the virus would do all by itself? 

 

This is not a trap.  You can answer.  I don't know how this will play out either.  I'm just trying to keep people alive over here and I do understand that people need to eat to stay alive.  I'm not feeling much of a political divide where I live.  EVERYONE is complying with the mask guidelines in public places of business and lots of people are now wearing them for walks around the neighborhood.  (My mother in another state reports that only half the people wear masks in grocery stores near her.) I live in a blue state with a Republican governor, so it's possible that the people most politically inclined to balk about the restrictions mind it less when their guy is telling them what to do.  It's also possible that I have no idea what's really going on because I've been on house arrest for 45 days. 

I can’t find it now but the WHO did dial that statement back a bit.  They are more saying there’s no firm evidence

 

3 hours ago, Meriwether said:

April 3, 2020, Research Update

This report from Imperial College in London and others provides updated estimates of the infection fatality ratio (IFR, deaths/all infections, including mild and asymptomatic) and the case fatality ratio (CFR, death/symptomatic or confirmed infections). They estimate a mean duration from symptom onset to death of 18 days and for survivors the time from symptom onset to hospital discharge of 25 days. They do a good job of trying to adjust for biases in the data attributable to oversampling of severe cases early in a pandemic, failure to adjust for age, and the lag between case identification and death. The overall IFR is estimated to be 0.66%, and the overall CFR is 1.38%. The CFR increases from 0.06% for those in their 20s to 0.15% in their 30s, 0.30% in their 40s, 1.3% in their 50s, 4.0% in their 60s, 8.6% in their 70s, and 13.4% for those 80 and older. The proportion hospitalized increases from 1% in their 20s to 4% in their 40s to 12% in their 60s.

Written by Mark H. Ebell, MD, MS, on March 31, 2020. (Source: Verity R, Okell LC, Dorigatti I, et al. Estimates of the severity of coronavirus disease 2019: a model-based analysis. Lancet Infect Dis. [Published online March 30, 2020]. https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/laninf/PIIS1473-3099(20)30243-7.pdf)




As more testing is done, I believe the IFR will continue to drop.

I thought testing would only affect cfr not IFR.  Because IFR supposedly estimates based on all infections not just those tested?

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12 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

But manufacturing jobs left America a long time ago for various reasons. What we are seeing now is a bunch of local companies scrambling to make ventilators and PPE when it is really hard to turn on a dime and convert American manufacturing assembly lines to make so much PPE or ventilators to meet demand from a pandemic. They are doing a heroic job to change their production line to make more PPE, but, I doubt that there will be enough made such that there is supply for every citizen who leaves their home to conduct outside business. We need to import from somewhere. The politicians are too polite and use the euphemism "Supply Chain" to repeatedly refer to the fact that China is the supplier of what we consume. I am privileged that I can afford to buy $2 masks, but, I am not so sure if everyone can afford that in California. 

On a related note, do you know if Wuhan has opened up its schools already?

From the tweets I’m seeing from global times etc in China it seems only some grades in high school are open and no primary.  But none in Wuhan or other harder hit areas.

edited to add their big meeting Thingamy has now been delayed till mid May.  
 

Some analysis says schools open and the parliament meeting thing will be the true indicators that things are actually controlled.  
 

they just built another hospital near the province on the Russia China border where the latest outbreak is.

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5 hours ago, Terabith said:

Okay, true.  Clearly it CAN go on indefinitely.  And of course they shouldn't do elective procedures without proper PPE.  But it will cause major hardship, pain, dysfunction, and loss of life if it goes on for long.  Cancer surgeries are being put off.  Procedures to relieve pain aren't being done, in an era when opioids won't be prescribed either.  

I'm not sure if the issue is that the PPE isn't there or if they are worried about conserving PPE for a surge in covid cases.  Which is an entirely rational thing to do, but again, when it's very possible it will be July or August before it gets here, that's a long time to leave people in medical limbo.  

I mean, what I'd LIKE to have happened, is for the federal government to have invoked the Defense Production Act back in January and started producing PPE in large quantities.  But, clearly that didn't happen.  I'm not entirely clear that anyone is manufacturing it now.  As far as I can tell, states are just scrambling to order this scarce resource from all over the country and it's getting confiscated.  

Right, but since we cant go back in time, or make PPE appear magically, or extra testing, what we are left with is wait for those things before doing non essential medical procedures OR asking medical staff - doctors, nurses, technicians, receptionists, etc - to risk their lives for non essential procedures. And asking them to risk their family's lives or live separately on top of it. That's just the way it is. I don't think we can blame them for choosing the former. 

4 hours ago, square_25 said:

I think lewelma was talking about pooling parts of samples together and testing them, and then only testing individual ones if it's positive. It's a good technique for low incidence areas! 

We have done that for heartworm testing at one of the veterinary clinics I worked for. Takes time though, to collect enough samples for the batch. 

4 hours ago, Ottakee said:

But elective is a highly subjective thing.   I really need to see a specialist about a medical issue that is getting worse....can't get in until July as they aren't seeing patients/doing tests now.

My primary is doing what she can to help me and is trying to order tests.

They are "elective" in that the chance I will die by not having this test in the next week is very small.....BUT, there is also a larger risk of longer term health issues if they don't discover the reason behind what is going on ....and hopefully soon.

Elective might include cancer screenings, tests, etc that might not lead to death this week, but delaying them a few weeks/months could well affect the ultimate outcome for those patients.

I had a friend that (before covid) had an elective hysterectomy.  It was to the point that her choice was hysterectomy or blood transfusions....yet it was labeled as "elective".

There are also life enhancing procedures for children that NOT done in a timely manner makes them less effective long term.

I agree though that there are some truly elective procedures that certainly can wait.

The thing is - do we ask medical staff to do those procedures and work in those offices even without the proper PPE?

3 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

For me, this ignores 2 parts

The first is time.  Which is what "flatten the curve" is supposed to buy us.  Time.  Lets presume 2.2 million dead (which, I absolutely believe we *will* get there at some point.)  The question is....how long till we get there?

Second part it ignores is the percentage of cases that are completely asymptomatic, as well as the very mild cases that aren't tested.  In Ohio, as of today, less than 400 of our cases are in the 0 to 19 age range.  Bull.  All that means is that less than 400 kids and teens have enough symptoms to get tested.  We don't have an accurate overall IFR.  The math can't be right if the numbers used to create are wrong.  

But part of the issue is that yes, we are missing asymptomatic cases, but we are also missing deaths. There are a lot of 'excess" deaths right now, that are likley from COVID, in people who died at home or were just not tested before dying. So we are undercounting the cases but also undercounting the deaths. 

And this disease isn't just about deaths anyway. People seem to not be factoring in the weeks in hospital for many, the potential long term damage to lungs, heart, and kidneys, etc. We have doctors who are worried that patients who survive may end up needing transplants later, and our medical system can't handle that kind of increase. So they might live now, but die of heart failure later, or live with seriously compromised heart or lung function, etc. 

 

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1 hour ago, Terabith said:

No, of course they don't have the ability to make this virus go away.  But you know what?  Competent leadership could have implemented widespread testing, quarantining, and contact tracing in JANUARY (along with production of PPE and ventilators), and we might very well have avoided all of this.  

That is insanely frustrating.  

The incompetence and arrogance.  

ETA:  A forum of homeschool moms, operating on publicly available information, started organizing to prepare our own households for pandemic in January and February.  It's really not too much to ask the federal government to use their resources to do the same.  

Sorry, that's probably out of line.  

All that is in the past.

In the bay area, we took measures to protect ourselves at our workplaces and our kids in our schools when we knew that there was community spread months before the County and the State acknowledged that the pandemic had reached our shores. That was a scary time for the locals, living through those weeks when we were afraid to step out of our homes to participate in society but had to do it because the government did not have the knowledge or data or the testing kits available. So, what we did was to protect ourselves when the local government was denying that the problem existed. We stayed home, taught our babies to not touch their faces, stepped outside armed with hand sanitizers and masks even though all was well in the news cycles. Now, they acknowledge that the infection was there in February and that they are "digging deeper". There is incompetence at every level and deep denial as well. The price we paid for that is lives lost (60,000 deaths, #1 in total deaths), damage to the economy and joblessness😞

 

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1 minute ago, mathnerd said:

All that is in the past.

In the bay area, we took measures to protect ourselves at our workplaces and our kids in our schools when we knew that there was community spread months before the County and the State acknowledged that the pandemic had reached our shores. That was a scary time for the locals, living through those weeks when we were afraid to step out of our homes to participate in society but had to do it because the government did not have the knowledge or data or the testing kits available. So, what we did was to protect ourselves when the local government was denying that the problem existed. We stayed home, taught our babies to not touch their faces, stepped outside armed with hand sanitizers and masks even though all was well in the news cycles. Now, they acknowledge that the infection was there in February and that they are "digging deeper". There is incompetence at every level and deep denial as well. The price we paid for that is lives lost (60,000 deaths, #1 in total deaths), damage to the economy and joblessness😞

 

I thought there was now evidence of cases as early as Jan?

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5 minutes ago, kdsuomi said:

Does every thread now have to turn into an America is selfish (vaccines), the feds caused all our woes, Republicans want everyone to die, and everyone who wants to get curbside pickup must be lectured on staying at home? It really seems as though that's the case.

CA's next phase will honestly change very little about people's day to day lives, and yet people are still sitting here flipping out that people are going to leave their homes. Yes, once the governor and counties allow us to, people can still not interact with others and get something from a store put in the trunk of a car. We still won't be able to actually go inside the store. CA's re-opening is very different from all the others I've seen so far, and yet the reaction is exactly the same. 

Well, I for one think CA's plan looks very reasonable. And I say that as one of the most staunch proponents of stay at home, and a bleeding heart liberal. 

Now, Ga's plan? Not so much. 

And I have very little faith in my own state at the moment. We shall see. 

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https://abc7news.com/society/complaints-rise-over-lack-of-social-distancing-around-oaklands-lake-merritt-/6135950/
“OAKLAND, Calif. (KGO) -- The warmer it gets and the later it gets into the afternoon hours, the more crowded the area around Oakland's Lake Merritt becomes despite social distancing guidelines during the novel coronavirus pandemic.

The majority of those enjoying the lake appear to not be wearing face coverings.
Video shot over the weekend shows crowds that are supposed to be moving, not picnicking or sunning.

Over the last six weeks, Alameda County has fielded 2,400 complaints.

"The city of Oakland is leading in the number of complaints where violations are concerned because that's one of the places we got a lot of complaints that people are not social distancing," said Sgt. Tya Modeste with the Alameda County Sheriff's Office. "Those complaints have been forwarded to the Oakland Police department's task force on compliance issues. "

Oakland police say they have issued no citations thus far as they are focused on calls about other criminal activity.”

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6 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh yeah, the New York Times had some excess death calculations. They are... sobering. Here they are: 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html
 

on the economist graphs they didn’t have one for all of US but the New York City graph actually did dip slightly into the expected deaths.  Meaning either that the death rate from other causes has dropped (possible given many areas are seeing quiet hospitals with the lockdowns, less road trauma etc) or a small number of deaths that would have been happening anyway are being counted as COVID.  It’s not massive but I think it’s a good indication that in New York City they are a finally capturing all Covid deaths, although that’s not true for the rest of the Us.  The excess deaths not allocated to Covid in European countries was sobering though. 

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5 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh yeah, the New York Times had some excess death calculations. They are... sobering. Here they are: 

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html

And yet the arguments that "this is all overblown and it's no worse than the flu" rely heavily on (1) exaggerating the numbers of infected/immune while simultaneously (2) claiming that the deaths that are being counted are purposely being artificially inflated by including people who died "with" CV19, not "of" it. In fact, the opposite is true. ☹️

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14 minutes ago, kdsuomi said:

Does every thread now have to turn into an America is selfish (vaccines), the feds caused all our woes, Republicans want everyone to die, and everyone who wants to get curbside pickup must be lectured on staying at home? It really seems as though that's the case.

CA's next phase will honestly change very little about people's day to day lives, and yet people are still sitting here flipping out that people are going to leave their homes. Yes, once the governor and counties allow us to, people can still not interact with others and get something from a store put in the trunk of a car. We still won't be able to actually go inside the store. CA's re-opening is very different from all the others I've seen so far, and yet the reaction is exactly the same. 

Mostly what changes it to that is you coming on here and saying that time after time lol! We all seem pretty entrenched in our views I guess ( you included). Maybe we should all copy and paste in all threads. Just joking! I like hearing everyone’s view points - even if some are quite predictable!

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37 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

 

On a related note, do you know if Wuhan has opened up its schools already?

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/04/21/schools-to-re-open-in-china039s-han

"WUHAN: Final-year high school students in the province of Wuhan, the epicentre of China's virus outbreak, will return to classrooms from May 6, officials said, the latest easing of restrictions as the country's domestic outbreak is brought under control.

Schools have been closed in Wuhan and surrounding Hubei province since January, when lockdown measures were brought in to try and contain the spread of the virus."

I was hoping for something like this for US

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/razer-covid-19-face-mask-manufacturing-line-singapore-12597834

"SINGAPORE: Singapore gaming company Razer announced plans on Wednesday (Apr 1) to set up an automated face mask manufacturing line within 30 days to produce "a couple of million certified masks" each month.

...

In a separate press statement released by Razer on Wednesday, the company said that it had initially converted existing product manufacturing lines in China to make and donate masks for immediate relief, with initial shipments going out earlier this week.

However, the company had been "inundated by requests due to an extreme shortage of face masks and PPEs", particularly in Southeast Asia, and decided to set up a line in Singapore.

"Many of the face masks in the market are not properly manufactured, do not meet certification standards and offer little or no protection to the users," said Razer in its release.

The company said that its masks will be "certified to Singapore and international standards" and used to supply both the local and regional market."

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28 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/regional/2020/04/21/schools-to-re-open-in-china039s-han

"WUHAN: Final-year high school students in the province of Wuhan, the epicentre of China's virus outbreak, will return to classrooms from May 6, officials said, the latest easing of restrictions as the country's domestic outbreak is brought under control.

Schools have been closed in Wuhan and surrounding Hubei province since January, when lockdown measures were brought in to try and contain the spread of the virus."

I was hoping for something like this for US

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/singapore/razer-covid-19-face-mask-manufacturing-line-singapore-12597834

"SINGAPORE: Singapore gaming company Razer announced plans on Wednesday (Apr 1) to set up an automated face mask manufacturing line within 30 days to produce "a couple of million certified masks" each month.

...

In a separate press statement released by Razer on Wednesday, the company said that it had initially converted existing product manufacturing lines in China to make and donate masks for immediate relief, with initial shipments going out earlier this week.

However, the company had been "inundated by requests due to an extreme shortage of face masks and PPEs", particularly in Southeast Asia, and decided to set up a line in Singapore.

"Many of the face masks in the market are not properly manufactured, do not meet certification standards and offer little or no protection to the users," said Razer in its release.

The company said that its masks will be "certified to Singapore and international standards" and used to supply both the local and regional market."

So, it took 4 months for Wuhan to ease restrictions for some school kids to enter classrooms. I am guessing that parts of the US are affected worse than Wuhan these days (especially NYC). Which means that we should anticipate that it might take that many months for American schools to bring kids back to the classrooms. 

California needs more than 40 million masks for the general public if we all are required to wear them when we step out into society. Then, there is the need of millions more for health care providers. If we need 100 million masks and Razer has capacity to make 2 million/month, I guess that a dozen such companies in california can produce 20-30 million masks/month. The automation of the production might make it cost effective ...

 

 

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24 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

California needs more than 40 million masks for the general public if we all are required to wear them when we step out into society. Then, there is the need of millions more for health care providers. If we need 100 million masks and Razer has capacity to make 2 million/month, I guess that a dozen such companies in california can produce 20-30 million masks/month. The automation of the production might make it cost effective ...

I was thinking more of reduce reliance on international supplies. Not all the masks need to be produced in California. It can be manufactured in nearby states. 

Another example, this from South Korea:

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=43268
“Samsung Group is working with South Korean mask manufacturers to help them increase their output by means of its smart factory operation experience.

Samsung sent its manufacturing process experts to the three mask manufacturers of E&W, Evergreen and Loesstech on March 3 so that those companies recommended by the Ministry of SMEs and Startups and the Korea Federation of SMEs can maximize their output by means of their existing production resources and even without new equipment.

In addition, Samsung Electronics produced and supplied molds in just seven days to mask makers lacking mold production techniques. It takes at least one month for such companies to import molds from abroad. The beneficiaries include Hwajin Industry. Samsung sent its smart factory experts to the company last month, and they helped the company increase its daily output from 40,000 units to 100,000 units by optimizing production lines and removing process bottlenecks.

Samsung Group is also planning to work with the government in helping import meltblown nonwoven fabrics for masks. Specifically, purchase contracts with foreign filter suppliers designated by the government will be concluded based on Samsung Electronics’ and Samsung C&T’s global networks and the resultant imports will be supplied to the Public Procurement Service. With contracts for 53 tons of meltblown nonwoven fabrics already signed, Samsung is continuing with additional purchase procedures. The amount is equivalent to more than 25 million masks.”

Edited by Arcadia
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7 hours ago, kdsuomi said:

There's too much travel between areas to really do CA part by part. A lot if people who work in my county live in a neighboring county. A lot of people who live in that county work in a different neighboring county. So on and so forth. We're a tourist county, so people routinely chime here from all over. 

I think there are some pretty solid regional divides. Bay Area and LA basin do not need to be in sync with each other to be effective. 

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6 minutes ago, Arcadia said:

I was thinking more of reduce reliance on international supplies. Not all the masks need to be produced in California. It can be manufactured in nearby states. 

Another example, this from South Korea:

http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/news/articleView.html?idxno=43268
“Samsung Group is working with South Korean mask manufacturers to help them increase their output by means of its smart factory operation experience.

Samsung sent its manufacturing process experts to the three mask manufacturers of E&W, Evergreen and Loesstech on March 3 so that those companies recommended by the Ministry of SMEs and Startups and the Korea Federation of SMEs can maximize their output by means of their existing production resources and even without new equipment.

In addition, Samsung Electronics produced and supplied molds in just seven days to mask makers lacking mold production techniques. It takes at least one month for such companies to import molds from abroad. The beneficiaries include Hwajin Industry. Samsung sent its smart factory experts to the company last month, and they helped the company increase its daily output from 40,000 units to 100,000 units by optimizing production lines and removing process bottlenecks.

Samsung Group is also planning to work with the government in helping import meltblown nonwoven fabrics for masks. Specifically, purchase contracts with foreign filter suppliers designated by the government will be concluded based on Samsung Electronics’ and Samsung C&T’s global networks and the resultant imports will be supplied to the Public Procurement Service. With contracts for 53 tons of meltblown nonwoven fabrics already signed, Samsung is continuing with additional purchase procedures. The amount is equivalent to more than 25 million masks.”

In sa we are supposed to start manufacturing masks in May June.  We just can’t start yet - because the machines we need to make them are made in China 

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1 minute ago, Ausmumof3 said:

In sa we are supposed to start manufacturing masks in May June.  We just can’t start yet - because the machines we need to make them are made in China 

No chance of getting the machines from South Korea or Taiwan?

Taiwan https://focustaiwan.tw/society/202003240015

“On Feb. 6, it launched a rationing system through the National Health Insurance Administration, limiting people to two masks per week.

To increase production, the government invested NT$200 million (US$6.66 million) to purchase new supply lines, and began recruiting a team of about 100 technicians to assemble them at requisitioned manufacturing facilities.

In the first phase of the team's deployment, from Feb. 5-March 5, it completed an estimated four-to-six-month workload, assembling 60 supply lines. With each machine able to manufacture 100,000 masks per day, the country's daily mask production jumped from 4 million to 10 million.

Reflecting that increase, on March 5 the government raised the mask ration to three adult-sized or five child-sized masks per week.”

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https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2020/04/28/coronavirus-san-jose-facing-a-45-million-budget-shortfall-due-to-covid-19-pandemic/

“SAN JOSE (KPIX) – The city of San Jose is facing a $45 million budget deficit, much of it rapidly brought on by the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.

...

“We were looking at a $25-$35 million budget surplus and we went to a projected $45 million dollar deficit. That’s about an $80 million swing within one month,” Khamis said.

Like most Bay Area cities, San Jose makes most of its money by collecting sales and property taxes.

But with so many businesses closed, those income streams have gone practically dry.

...

And with travel restricted, the city’s other big source of income — hotel or transient taxes — are also down sharply.

Fortunately, San Jose has cash reserves and many emergency expenses related to the pandemic are being picked up by the state and federal government, not coming out of the city’s general fund.

But the city is looking for ways to cut costs, such as deferring maintenance or building renovations.”

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8 hours ago, Terabith said:

I mean, what I'd LIKE to have happened, is for the federal government to have invoked the Defense Production Act back in January and started producing PPE in large quantities.  But, clearly that didn't happen.  I'm not entirely clear that anyone is manufacturing it now.  As far as I can tell, states are just scrambling to order this scarce resource from all over the country and it's getting confiscated.  

People stayed away from their families for a month to make PPE more efficiently.

"Workers volunteered to live in a factory for 28 days to produce millions of pounds of raw PPE materials to make masks and gowns for frontline medical workers"

https://www.inquirer.com/health/coronavirus/coronavirus-ppe-materials-marcus-hook-delaware-county-factory-joe-boyce-20200423.html

Edited by ElizabethB
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@Terabith@ElizabethB@Ausmumof3@mathnerd

https://www.npr.org/2020/04/06/828303817/surgical-mask-manufacturer-in-texas-is-inundated-with-requests
“MARY LOUISE KELLY, HOST: 

Well, let's hear now from someone who makes those masks. Michael Bowen is co-owner and executive vice president of Prestige Ameritech. That is the largest manufacturer of surgical face masks here in the U.S. He told me his company has dramatically ramped up production as factories elsewhere in the world idle.

...

KELLY: This is a very basic question, but why can't you ramp up really quickly, really fast? This is a question of specialized equipment?

BOWEN: Yeah, and training. It takes a long time to build the machines, and this is a temporary situation. So for our company, ramping up past a certain point becomes a suicide mission. You know, we did this 10 years ago during H1N1, and we hired a lot of people and ramped up. And then we nearly went bankrupt afterward. We laid off 150 people and nearly went out of business. You know, it's not like flipping on a switch. It's building machines. It's hiring people. It's training people. That's the issue.

KELLY: Stay with that experience from 2009 with H1N1. You ramped up. You were left with - what? - a huge surplus of masks that you couldn't sell?

BOWEN: Well, what happened is we rose to the occasion. Hospitals were calling. We bought a bigger factory. We built machines. We hired an extra 150 people. And then when it ended, the people that we helped went back to the foreign-made masks. So we ended up having to lay off all of those people, and it was a very brutal situation.

...
KELLY: It's all private customers, hospitals and so forth.

BOWEN: Yeah. It's hospitals and hospital distributors and dental distributors. We haven't done business with the federal government since 2010. Over the last 10 years, we have bid on the Department of Defense and the Veterans Administration's masks, and they always choose masks that are made in Mexico because they're cheaper.

KELLY: I mean, make the case for me why the government and private business - why shouldn't they go with the cheapest option?

BOWEN: Because in a pandemic, the government of every country is going to take care of their own people. If there's not going to be a pandemic, it's no big deal. But if you think there's going to be a pandemic - which experts do - and that borders are going to close and there's going to be infrastructure disruption, it's safer to make masks in the United States.”

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