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Our shelter in place just got extended through May 30 and people are DONE


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10 hours ago, Dreamergal said:

I second this. I am in the land of the free too and what I am seeing is nothing irresponsible. Who are these people who are irresponsible ??? Everyone in my neighborhood is leaning towards paranoid sanitizing. We may die of bleach fumes than COVID 😂

 

Y'all need to come to my little town in Texas. People here are no longer wearing masks.  No one is sanitizing anything anymore.  My store stopped handing out wipes at the door for carts. Half of the clerks aren't wearing masks.  The town is planning a 4th of July parade and fireworks show and "recommends" that people wear masks and socially distance, but will not be enforcing it.

If anyone questions why people aren't wearing masks, you get yelled at that if you are too scared, then maybe you should stay home, or better yet, get out of Texas. 

 

 

 

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I understand getting tired of staying home, but I don’t get being SOOO tired that it’s worth the risk not to. What I’m trying to avoid by staying home is checking a loved one into a hospital to die al

Our order was recently extended to May 16th (at the earliest), but the pattern has been to add time in two week increments, so I predict it will soon be extended to May 30th (or at least through Memor

re how closely the virus has come to the house I expect that does make all the difference.  I'm in a hot spot. I'd have more than $1000 myself, and I know several people for whom that number wo

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10 hours ago, Dreamergal said:

It is absolutely above my pay grade or honestly my intelligence to figure an answer to this. But these cannot be reasons we can shut down entirely is what I will say. I keep hearing all sorts of things like Maine saying every teacher about 60 must retire ? I do not know what is truth, what is fantasy and what is politicized "truth". We truly live in the age of truthiness. 

Huh?

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15 hours ago, Where's Toto? said:

How come there isn't more information available about the places coming close to ICU capacity?   Everybody seemed to know what was happening in NYC, but on here is the first time I've heard that other places may be in trouble.   

🤷‍♀️ 
Most recent stats are that my county has 2 open ICU beds, and 4 medical/surgical beds. We have 2 hospitals. To little ole me, that doesn’t sound like enough to be loosening restrictions like we are (and earlier than planned, to boot!)

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11 hours ago, Arcadia said:

I did buy the yeast since my first attempt at making my own sourdough starter fail. 
 

Didn’t buy the sanitizer. I am waiting for isopropyl alcohol to be back in stock.

Aww. If you weren’t a billion miles away from me, I would drive you over some starter. 

That’s one good thing I have learned since COVID. - how to make all the things with starter only. I do still have some regular yeast but I have been challenging myself to totally not use it. 

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2 hours ago, Bootsie said:

This is a quandary.  What does "safe" mean?  I don't think it will ever mean 0% chance that they get this, or any other, coronavirus, or influenza, or measles, or are in a car accident, or participate in an activity in which they fall and break their hip.  How do we even begin to define safe.  And who decides this?  Are the seniors part of that discussion?  

Yes, seniors are part of this discussion.

I can’t say that I know exactly how to define safe, but having a very contagious and deadly for them virus spreading through the population is probably not it.

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21 hours ago, sassenach said:

That’s not actually true. The fatality rate is skewed depending on age and risk factors. You can’t just apply a flat percentage to the # of family members you have. 
 

Also, the question I answered was “Do you think it’s unlikely that you or your loved one will die from this?” And my answer is yes. And that’s not only what I think, or a feeling I have, that’s actually a statistical fact. 
 

 As someone who has been at the losing end of statistics, I’m not saying that in a flippant way. We are still VERY cautious in our family. But I do feel the need to deal in truth and not fear. 

THANK YOU.  I just don’t get the ‘if it’s your loved one you’d feel differently’ argument.  Holds zero water.  In my N=9 sample in this very household, as a wife and mom, I have already dealt with debilitating illnesses, lifelong profound disability, and death due to circumstances beyond my control.

Does it suck?  Very much.  If I could change it without any drawbacks I absolutely would. But honestly life goes on, and death from disease, illness, and syndrome is a part of that.  A very intimate part, given that mortality = 100%.  We do the very best we can to mitigate risk, but we cannot control ALL risk and in my life it is that illusion that is far more destructive to my joy and thriving than just managing what I can and realizing the rest is simply beyond me.

Some therapies are too expensive, some actions too drastic, some costs too high in the name of health.  I’ve made that tradeoff two dozen times and will probably make it tenfold more.  That is life and being a statistical unicorn doesn’t somehow mean every undergirding principle gets tossed because ‘oh now it is personal’.

One can personally suffer and still understand the odds. Or consciously decide where the line of fastidiousness and caution is, and no further.  Pain and fear doesn’t automatically mean I’ll do ANYTHING to avoid more.  That’s probably why I’m willing to have another child down the road here, or else I’m just batshit crazy 😒

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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

no social distancing here

disclaimer - I have no idea who the dude who tweeted this is

Don’t know who he is but this is almost certainly true - very close to me - many people completely unconcerned and very concerned that nothing should impose upon their liberty!

ETA Most of those people are probably from St Louis and Kansas City

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2 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

no social distancing here

disclaimer - I have no idea who the dude who tweeted this is

 That looks gross to me, even without a virus. Sweaty people flopping around, sloshing their drinks into the water, and drunken idiots peeing in the pool

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59 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yes, seniors are part of this discussion.

I can’t say that I know exactly how to define safe, but having a very contagious and deadly for them virus spreading through the population is probably not it.

The seniors here are done.  They are sick of being isolated.  At a local senior facility, they staged a protest and walked out last week— hobbled out the doors together with their walkers and wheelchairs and sat out on the grass together in the sunshine.  They have not been allowed to leave the facility for outings or have family visits for months.  Now they’ve told the management that it is over—literally announced that they would rather die, and that if management didn’t end the facility lockdown now, they would all be pulling their contracts as a block and leaving.

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9 minutes ago, Michelle Conde said:

The seniors here are done.  They are sick of being isolated.  At a local senior facility, they staged a protest and walked out last week— hobbled out the doors together with their walkers and wheelchairs and sat out on the grass together in the sunshine.  They have not been allowed to leave the facility for outings or have family visits for months.  Now they’ve told the management that it is over—literally announced that they would rather die, and that if management didn’t end the facility lockdown now, they would all be pulling their contracts as a block and leaving.

My heart breaks for them that it had to come to that. Especially when sitting out in the sunshine is a low risk activity.  

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22 minutes ago, Michelle Conde said:

The seniors here are done.  They are sick of being isolated.  At a local senior facility, they staged a protest and walked out last week— hobbled out the doors together with their walkers and wheelchairs and sat out on the grass together in the sunshine.  They have not been allowed to leave the facility for outings or have family visits for months.  Now they’ve told the management that it is over—literally announced that they would rather die, and that if management didn’t end the facility lockdown now, they would all be pulling their contracts as a block and leaving.

I'm not surprised. You can't keep locking people down forever. 

And if we keep spread low and have easily accessible testing, perhaps it'll actually be relatively safe for them to have family visitors. 

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42 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

THANK YOU.  I just don’t get the ‘if it’s your loved one you’d feel differently’ argument.  Holds zero water.  In my N=9 sample in this very household, as a wife and mom, I have already dealt with debilitating illnesses, lifelong profound disability, and death due to circumstances beyond my control.

Does it suck?  Very much.  If I could change it without any drawbacks I absolutely would. But honestly life goes on, and death from disease, illness, and syndrome is a part of that.  A very intimate part, given that mortality = 100%.  We do the very best we can to mitigate risk, but we cannot control ALL risk and in my life it is that illusion that is far more destructive to my joy and thriving than just managing what I can and realizing the rest is simply beyond me.

Some therapies are too expensive, some actions too drastic, some costs too high in the name of health.  I’ve made that tradeoff two dozen times and will probably make it tenfold more.  That is life and being a statistical unicorn doesn’t somehow mean every undergirding principle gets tossed because ‘oh now it is personal’.

One can personally suffer and still understand the odds. Or consciously decide where the line of fastidiousness and caution is, and no further.  Pain and fear doesn’t automatically mean I’ll do ANYTHING to avoid more.  That’s probably why I’m willing to have another child down the road here, or else I’m just batshit crazy 😒

 

I showed the calculation above. I'm going to be extremely surprised if most people will be able to go on as usual if the chance of losing someone close to you is something like 10%. Which is back to what I was saying before -- you might be seeing people "going back to normal" right now, but the level of economic activity is not unlikely to decrease if people close to you are dying. And no, I don't just mean people at nursing homes. 

Now, of course, I could be wrong. Perhaps the economy will go on humming even if the hospitals are overwhelmed and people you know are dying. I'd be surprised, but I have a limited ability to predict the future. 

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10 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

I'm a Democrat and a mask wearer.  I don't understand this at all.  The Republicans I know are very concerned about the economy, and the need to open up.  Surely cutting down on transmission is going to be key to reducing damage to the economy.

On the other side, I have Democratic friends who seem to want HCQ not to work, just because Trump likes it. I hope every solution we can find works.  It doesn't surprise me that HCQ isn't the single miracle drug, because my experience tells me to expect that in the end there will be lots of drugs needed and lots of subtle factors about which combination is right one for each person, and lots of side effects to balance.  It seems like HCQ fits well into that expectation.

That's probably the biggest thing about all this I don't understand.   IF you are in the "open up NOW" category, why wouldn't you be pushing masks?  That is the easiest way to control spread at this point.   I realize not everyone can wear masks, blah blah blah, but if those who can, do it could make a huge difference.

(I actually know the answer to my own confusion - people don't believe the virus is real, or going to affect them, or it's all a conspiracy, blah blah blah).

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1 minute ago, Where's Toto? said:

That's probably the biggest thing about all this I don't understand.   IF you are in the "open up NOW" category, why wouldn't you be pushing masks?  That is the easiest way to control spread at this point.   I realize not everyone can wear masks, blah blah blah, but if those who can, do it could make a huge difference.

(I actually know the answer to my own confusion - people don't believe the virus is real, or going to affect them, or it's all a conspiracy, blah blah blah).

Yeah, I know the answer, too. But it's deeply irrational. This one benefits everyone. 

That's why I think focusing on how it benefits the economy would be a good public health campaign. 

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5 hours ago, MissLemon said:

 

Y'all need to come to my little town in Texas. People here are no longer wearing masks.  No one is sanitizing anything anymore.  My store stopped handing out wipes at the door for carts. Half of the clerks aren't wearing masks.  The town is planning a 4th of July parade and fireworks show and "recommends" that people wear masks and socially distance, but will not be enforcing it.

If anyone questions why people aren't wearing masks, you get yelled at that if you are too scared, then maybe you should stay home, or better yet, get out of Texas. 

People in your town are yelling at you about wearing a mask?  Where do you live?  I'm a native Texan, and though every person in our state is imperfect, it's been my experience that we're a pretty friendly bunch.  That is very sad and I'm sorry you're experiencing such hostility!

You probably know this, but masks and distancing cannot legally be enforced by any city or county in Texas, per Gov. Abbott's order.  I think that's a good thing, though you probably disagree.  I wouldn't yell at you about our differences of opinion, nor would I suggest you leave.  🙂

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10 minutes ago, DoraBora said:

You probably know this, but masks and distancing cannot legally be enforced by any city or county in Texas, per Gov. Abbott's order.  I think that's a good thing, though you probably disagree.  I wouldn't yell at you about our differences of opinion, nor would I suggest you leave.  🙂

And why is that a good thing? 

I take it you don't think wearing masks is a good idea (let me know if I'm wrong.) Why is that? 

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3 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

no social distancing here

disclaimer - I have no idea who the dude who tweeted this is

You know, I have seen a lot of tweets like this in various forms (crowded parks, crosswalks with a lot of people, protest crowds, whatever) come across my feed in the last six weeks and the threads are filled with people saying that in two weeks hospitals are going to be full, these people will be sick, there will be a spike. And yet, I never see anyone come back around with the reporting that it there was a spike. I feel like in the sun and chlorine and in the open air, transmission would be very low.

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4 minutes ago, square_25 said:

And why is that a good thing? 

Well, isn't the science still out on whether masks add any benefit to enhanced hygiene and distancing?  The masking message has been mixed from the beginning, and people living in places that aren't terribly hard-hit don't feel the same urgency to mask as those where you live. 

In Texas, as things stand now, there's no reason for county or city officials to have the power to lock everyone down or force them to mask. 

Me?  I think people should mask, just in case they help slow the spread.  I think we should keep our distance from those who don't live with us and that we should avoid crowds, but I don't agree that these things should be required under penalty of fines or jail time.  We've been open for a while and our cases are not out of control.

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26 minutes ago, square_25 said:

And why is that a good thing? 

I take it you don't think wearing masks is a good idea (let me know if I'm wrong.) Why is that? 

Everyone in my family wears a mask in public, just in case it helps slow the spread.  I sure it hope it does, because I'm not looking forward to masking in August!

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1 hour ago, DoraBora said:

Well, isn't the science still out on whether masks add any benefit to enhanced hygiene and distancing?  The masking message has been mixed from the beginning, and people living in places that aren't terribly hard-hit don't feel the same urgency to mask as those where you live. 

In Texas, as things stand now, there's no reason for county or city officials to have the power to lock everyone down or force them to mask. 

Me?  I think people should mask, just in case they help slow the spread.  I think we should keep our distance from those who don't live with us and that we should avoid crowds, but I don't agree that these things should be required under penalty of fines or jail time.  We've been open for a while and our cases are not out of control.

 

I don't think there's going to be very straightforward science about any of this, because how would you even study this in a controlled way? There's evidence, though. People are updating guidelines (too late, frankly) given the evidence. 

I think decreasing people's ability to implement public health measures will not increase local government ability to deal with a local outbreak. 

Current estimates are that there is a higher percentage of Texans currently infected than there are New Yorkers currently infected. People are wearing masks here not because it's currently worse here, but because they've gone through this already and it was traumatic. it would be much better if people wore masks before the trauma, not after. 

I'm glad you're wearing a mask! I hope it helps, too. Are others in your town doing so or no? 

ETA: OK, checking the numbers again, I'm probably wrong about there being more Texans than New Yorkers currently infected, although the numbers do look pretty similar and both are under a percent. Sorry!

Edited by square_25
Factual error.
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6 minutes ago, DoraBora said:

Everyone in my family wears a mask in public, just in case it helps slow the spread.  I sure it hope it does, because I'm not looking forward to masking in August!

Oh, goodness, masking in the Texas heat... sounds unpleasant, lol. 

Maybe one could have masks that come with an attached headband, to keep the sweat out of your eyes... I always had trouble with sweat in my eyes in the heat. 

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23 minutes ago, EmseB said:

You know, I have seen a lot of tweets like this in various forms (crowded parks, crosswalks with a lot of people, protest crowds, whatever) come across my feed in the last six weeks and the threads are filled with people saying that in two weeks hospitals are going to be full, these people will be sick, there will be a spike. And yet, I never see anyone come back around with the reporting that it there was a spike. I feel like in the sun and chlorine and in the open air, transmission would be very low.

Yep, I agree -- there seems to be evidence that outdoor gatherings like this are 

a) the thing that draws the most ire 

and 

b) aren't actually a big driver of spread. 

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27 minutes ago, EmseB said:

You know, I have seen a lot of tweets like this in various forms (crowded parks, crosswalks with a lot of people, protest crowds, whatever) come across my feed in the last six weeks and the threads are filled with people saying that in two weeks hospitals are going to be full, these people will be sick, there will be a spike. And yet, I never see anyone come back around with the reporting that it there was a spike. I feel like in the sun and chlorine and in the open air, transmission would be very low.

I think there are people out there who are very afraid when they see scenes like this that there will be a spike in cases, and others out there who sort-of hope there will.  (See?  See what happens?)

I wouldn't have enjoyed being in that crowd pre-Covid.  

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17 hours ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Herd immunity will kick in at 60-80% depending on which "expert" you think is correct, so your numbers would change dramatically, correct?  And if we happen to find some sort of standard treatment protocol sooner rather than later, that would also decrease the mortality rate?  So to say that there is a 10% chance someone you know will die is only correct using numbers and treatments we have now  and if 100% of the population is infected?

Square already went through the calculations with you, but I wanted to add on, that the calculation was for only 20 people, with the idea being family or very close friends. So I would say for most people the chance of knowing someone who died would end up much higher. Most people know far more than 20 people. You might run the calculation for the number of people in your church perhaps, then knowing it would likely shift higher or lower depending on the average age there. 

17 hours ago, Bootsie said:

My family received a note from a dear friend that I found so sad.  It read something like "time is moving so slowly or we are just all tired of having to eat in our rooms.  So, let's go for a walk, work a puzzle, talk to someone--enjoy life!"  To put this in context, she is 95 years old.  She worked in Europe with the World Council of Churches to help rebuild after WWII, she served as a missionary, she was a public school teacher, and still teaches her Sunday School class and an exercise class.  Both of her siblings have died and she never married.  She spent recent years taking care of a dear colleague and friend of many years who died within the past 6 months.  Her friends begged her to move into a retirement apartment so that she could enjoy all of the activities and be around people (and not drive her car as much).  So, she did that at the beginning of the year--the dining room has been closed with meals delivered outside each resident's room.  Of course, all of the social activities and gatherings have been cancelled.  The public areas where residents met to work puzzles or play dominoes are all closed.  

This is terribly sad and hard for those in nursing homes (and their families) right now. We’ve had local nursing homes with dozens of deaths in just one facility and the majority of residents and staff infected. What is your suggestion about how to handle that?

17 hours ago, Dreamergal said:

Yes, 1% is still a lot. Spanish Flu killed 5% of the population in my native country and it was in the millions. So I do understand it. But starvation kills too, perhaps not in America but in many countries around the world. Lack of medical care for other diseases. Recently there was an increase in polio because of COVID and politics. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/polio-was-almost-eradicated-then-came-the-coronavirus-then-came-a-threat-from-president-trump/2020/05/15/ed9d26fe-831c-11ea-81a3-9690c9881111_story.html

So what is the balance ? Is it wrong to say we need a balance ? The world does not stop or things like vaccine preventable diseases or cancer that can be detected early or heart attacks that need ICU. We cannot put the world on pause for COVID until a proven treatment is found or a vaccine. Just not sustainable in my view. 

On the Polio increases, just noting for anyone who doesn’t click through to the article that the problem there is the US withdrawing funds from WHO that usually go to Polio prevention in third world countries 😢.  Polio was already increasing last year, and the relationship to Covid is that it was the political reason for funding to be threatened.

16 hours ago, Bootsie said:

But some of those who are in a retirement facility, are finding this to be a miserable existence.  Rather than feeling protected, some are feeling that they are being prevented from living.   

I already asked above, but same question: do you have a suggested solution to this problem?

15 hours ago, Heartwood said:

Yeah, atheism doesn't provide any hope for eternal life.

And, yes, they were tested.

As Christians we’re called to love and care for atheists as well. An attitude that it’s all fine if we and our loves ones die because we will have eternal life without taking others into account seems self-centered. Hastening the deaths of possibly millions by going for herd immunity also means all those people who don’t already know God don’t get the opportunity to do so before their premature deaths. 

13 hours ago, Ausmumof3 said:

https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-europe-52786242?__twitter_impression=true
 

40 people contracted coronavirus from a church service in Germany after lockdown restrictions eased.  They disinfected the church before the service and followed all social distancing guidelines.

cant remember if this was the thread where we talked about churches so apologies if it’s wrong.  Hard to keep track now of all the different conversations.

I would be curious to know if they were wearing masks and/or if they were singing.

1 hour ago, Michelle Conde said:

The seniors here are done.  They are sick of being isolated.  At a local senior facility, they staged a protest and walked out last week— hobbled out the doors together with their walkers and wheelchairs and sat out on the grass together in the sunshine.  They have not been allowed to leave the facility for outings or have family visits for months.  Now they’ve told the management that it is over—literally announced that they would rather die, and that if management didn’t end the facility lockdown now, they would all be pulling their contracts as a block and leaving.

The only solution I can think of would be for families to pull their family members out and bring them home. Which I know can be very difficult if the care needs are beyond what can be handled at home. Given what has happened in nursing homes, is just opening them back up and allowing the virus to run through them a valid option at this point? That would then take up a lot of the hospital capacity as well.  I really can’t come up with another solution besides people finding a different living situation.  Certainly allowing outdoor visiting when the weather allows would be very appropriate and helpful.

7 minutes ago, EmseB said:

You know, I have seen a lot of tweets like this in various forms (crowded parks, crosswalks with a lot of people, protest crowds, whatever) come across my feed in the last six weeks and the threads are filled with people saying that in two weeks hospitals are going to be full, these people will be sick, there will be a spike. And yet, I never see anyone come back around with the reporting that it there was a spike. I feel like in the sun and chlorine and in the open air, transmission would be very low.

I agree the risk seems low (although not so low in that picture from Lake of the Ozarks – – that’s pretty high density and that would feel pretty high risk to me), but there is indeed a cluster from a pool party in Arkansas that was reported last night. https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article242967096.html

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6 minutes ago, DoraBora said:

I think there are people out there who are very afraid when they see scenes like this that there will be a spike in cases, and others out there who sort-of hope there will.  (See?  See what happens?)

I wouldn't have enjoyed being in that crowd pre-Covid.  

Well this time I may be able to let you know what happens because this is my back yard. Great if the risk outside is low but they will also be crowded together inside. I’d love to think they’ve analyzed the risk and are only crowded together outside with lots of chlorine splashing around.

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8 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

I don't think there's going to be very straightforward science about any of this, because how would you even study this in a controlled way? There's evidence, though. People are updating guidelines (too late, frankly) given the evidence. 

I think decreasing people's ability to implement public health measure will not increase local government ability. 

Current estimates are that there is a higher percentage of Texans currently infected than there are New Yorkers currently infected. People are wearing masks here not because it's currently worse here, but because they've gone through this already and it was traumatic. it would be much better if people wore masks before the trauma, not after. 

I'm glad you're wearing a mask! I hope it helps, too. Are others in your town doing so or no? 

Most people wear them in grocery stores in my little corner of the world, though a lot of the (young) employees pull them down below their noses.  (I get it.  They're hot.)   Most people seem to wear them in office buildings and banks.  At Home Depot yesterday, about two-thirds(?) of the customers were wearing them, and that was in the garden center, outdoors.

Some people don't, but I have yet to hear anyone yell at anyone about wearing a mask or not wearing one.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, kand said:

I agree the risk seems low (although not so low in that picture from Lake of the Ozarks – – that’s pretty high density and that would feel pretty high risk to me), but there is indeed a cluster from a pool party in Arkansas that was reported last night. https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article242967096.html

Ooooooh, that makes me worried. I do not want there to be outdoor spread. It sounds we don't have details about how many people got infected? 

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2 minutes ago, DoraBora said:

Most people wear them in grocery stores in my little corner of the world, though a lot of the (young) employees pull them down below their noses.  (I get it.  They're hot.)   Most people seem to wear them in office buildings and banks.  At Home Depot yesterday, about two-thirds(?) of the customers were wearing them, and that was in the garden center, outdoors.

Some people don't, but I have yet to hear anyone yell at anyone about wearing a mask or not wearing one.

Sounds extremely sensible, except for pulling them down below their noses. I'm glad there isn't a lot of mask protesting where you are! 

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3 minutes ago, TCB said:

Well this time I may be able to let you know what happens because this is my back yard. Great if the risk outside is low but they will also be crowded together inside. I’d love to think they’ve analyzed the risk and are only crowded together outside with lots of chlorine splashing around.

Yeah, my next door neighbor works at a CVS pharmacy.  She was sent home a month or so ago because one of the employees had tested positive.  She hosted a party that weekend!  Argh!  People in and out of her house and in the backyard.  We were under county stay-at-home orders at the time, so she shouldn't have been having a party anyway.

It all seemed to be okay in the end, but she took quite a chance.

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3 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Ooooooh, that makes me worried. I do not want there to be outdoor spread. It sounds we don't have details about how many people got infected? 

I wonder if a pool party is slightly higher risk than other outdoor events because there tends to be a bit more yelling and spitting out water etc.  also we don’t know for sure what was involved may have been some indoor time as well.

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1 minute ago, DoraBora said:

Yeah, my next door neighbor works at a CVS pharmacy.  She was sent home a month or so ago because one of the employees had tested positive.  She hosted a party that weekend!  Argh!  People in and out of her house and in the backyard.  We were under county stay-at-home orders at the time, so she shouldn't have been having a party anyway.

It all seemed to be okay in the end, but she took quite a chance.

 

One of the problems is that MOST things will be OK. It's not that widespread yet, and it seems to spread largely by superspreader events. So people will probably become emboldened by nothing going wrong. And that could backfire. 

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Just now, Ausmumof3 said:

I wonder if a pool party is slightly higher risk than other outdoor events because there tends to be a bit more yelling and spitting out water etc.  also we don’t know for sure what was involved may have been some indoor time as well.

Yeah, very true. I'd need to know more. I hope outdoor spread is limited :-). 

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45 minutes ago, EmseB said:

You know, I have seen a lot of tweets like this in various forms (crowded parks, crosswalks with a lot of people, protest crowds, whatever) come across my feed in the last six weeks and the threads are filled with people saying that in two weeks hospitals are going to be full, these people will be sick, there will be a spike. And yet, I never see anyone come back around with the reporting that it there was a spike. I feel like in the sun and chlorine and in the open air, transmission would be very low.

Yes.  We had the couple here that went to the real estate auction and i thought cases would definitely take off but there was nothing.  
 

I read and I think shared an interesting thing yesterday.  Apparently as well as RO there is another number they look at.  So for an r0 of 2 we assume everyone infects two people but in fact with some viruses it’s more like 9 people infect no one and the last infects 20.  They think covid may be more like that.

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4 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

I wonder if a pool party is slightly higher risk than other outdoor events because there tends to be a bit more yelling and spitting out water etc.  also we don’t know for sure what was involved may have been some indoor time as well.

I’ve read that the virus is very unstable around pool water and easily killed. That seems good for things like outdoor lap swimming. A pool party suggests close proximity and interaction though. And no masks, clearly.  I definitely can see The respiratory droplets flying in that situation. 

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21 minutes ago, DoraBora said:

I think there are people out there who are very afraid when they see scenes like this that there will be a spike in cases, and others out there who sort-of hope there will.  (See?  See what happens?)

I wouldn't have enjoyed being in that crowd pre-Covid.  

Same here.

The most disturbing replies are from people who say that they deserve what's coming to them.

I mean, in my mind,, the best outcome would be that people would be able to do stuff like this (as much as it's not my cup of tea) and we would see no one getting sick from it. Because if that's the case, I will feel better about kids in the neighborhood playing together, etc.

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1 minute ago, EmseB said:

Same here.

The most disturbing replies are from people who say that they deserve what's coming to them.

I mean, in my mind,, the best outcome would be that people would be able to do stuff like this (as much as it's not my cup of tea) and we would see no one getting sick from it. Because if that's the case, I will feel better about kids in the neighborhood playing together, etc.

Where is it that people are saying they deserve what’s coming to them. I’ve seen several people saying that but don’t know where they are seeing it.

Just read that a place local to us usually sees 400-500 visitors on Memorial Weekend and so far they’ve had over 900.

 

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4 minutes ago, kand said:

I’ve read that the virus is very unstable around pool water and easily killed. That seems good for things like outdoor lap swimming. A pool party suggests close proximity and interaction though. And no masks, clearly.  I definitely can see The respiratory droplets flying in that situation. 

But if people are swimming and such, I feel like most of your sinuses and mucous membranes would be washed with chlorinated water at some point, even just incidentally. This makes me just want to know more:

"Hutchinson did not say how many people attended the party or subsequently tested positive for the COVID-19 virus."

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7 minutes ago, Ausmumof3 said:

Yes.  We had the couple here that went to the real estate auction and i thought cases would definitely take off but there was nothing.  
 

I read and I think shared an interesting thing yesterday.  Apparently as well as RO there is another number they look at.  So for an r0 of 2 we assume everyone infects two people but in fact with some viruses it’s more like 9 people infect no one and the last infects 20.  They think covid may be more like that.

Yeah, I saw that :-). It looks like the "average" rate of transmission is kind of not the right way to measure it, because most people will infect no people at all, but some people will infect 80. Very annoying to model. 

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Because the US hasn't done consistent contact tracing, we don't have firm numbers on spikes from certain events.  I have seen though people do their own reports of having gotten sick at various parties.  If they hadn't done that (usually because it has changed their mind on the virus and now they are warning people of the dangers) we wouldn't really know. 

Also - it is a huge crap shoot.  You could have a party with a bunch of people with no COVID to spread.  So no matter how many droplets are in the air, they won't be COVID droplets.  You could have another event with a number of COVID spreaders.  Or you could have a super spreader at one event.  Temperature checks are (as far as I've read) pretty useless for identifying who might be spreading this invisible virus.  Now I'm not a gambler but it seems to me that the odds go up when you get a group of people who don't care about the virus in any setting - because that increases the potential that they are carriers.  And if you have a group of likeminded people then you might have more than one carrier, which increases the chances of them spreading it to any one individual. 

Edited by Jean in Newcastle
clarity
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Just now, EmseB said:

But if people are swimming and such, I feel like most of your sinuses and mucous membranes would be washed with chlorinated water at some point, even just incidentally. This makes me just want to know more:

"Hutchinson did not say how many people attended the party or subsequently tested positive for the COVID-19 virus."

I don’t know more details but I know Arkansas, pretty sure the governor included, has been very anti-shutdown so I doubt he would exaggerate or over dramatize it.

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9 minutes ago, sassenach said:

@square_25 can you link me to your calculations where you landed on 10%? I‘M having a hard time finding the post. Thanks!

 

I did the calculations with the assumption that it infects 70%, not everyone, which wound up with 7%. (No, it's not a linear relationship, but when the numbers are bigger, it's pretty close to one.) If you assume everyone gets it, you get to the 10% -- that's not a realistic assumption, of course, I was just making simplifying assumptions. 

Here's the post: 

 

If anyone finds a mistake in my calculations, by the way, you should absolutely let me know. I'm just doing these off the top of my head and am very capable of screwing something up. 

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15 minutes ago, TCB said:

I don’t know more details but I know Arkansas, pretty sure the governor included, has been very anti-shutdown so I doubt he would exaggerate or over dramatize it.

I didn't mean I thought it was over dramatized...I really want to know more. Basically, I want to figure out pool risks and outdoor risks because I want to let my kids play with the neighbors outside.

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30 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

Also - it is a huge crap shoot.  You could have a party with a bunch of people with no COVID to spread.  So no matter how many droplets are in the air, they won't be COVID droplets. 

 

Exactly. All indications are that most places (including, at this point, NY!) have at most a percent or two of the population currently infected. Most parties, therefore, will not have someone with COVID, and no spread will occur. But that doesn't mean that COVID doesn't spread at parties! It merely means that if your party doesn't have a person with COVID, you won't get COVID spread, which is of course trivial. 

Edited by square_25
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Just now, EmseB said:

I didn't mean I thought it was over dramatized...I really want to know more. Basically, I want to figure out pool risks and outdoor risks because I want to let my kids play with the neighbors outside.

I'd like to know this, too. I'd love to have a playdate for DD7, who hasn't seen a friend for 2 months. I have to say, I'm really glad she's not an only child... 

Unfortunately, I think we don't have a great sense of this one yet. Especially with kids, who are very... generous with their bodily fluids ;-). 

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40 minutes ago, square_25 said:

One of the problems is that MOST things will be OK. It's not that widespread yet, and it seems to spread largely by superspreader events. So people will probably become emboldened by nothing going wrong. And that could backfire. 

This is what I keep thinking.  With this more and more seeming to be driven so much by superspreader events, I keep worrying people could be lulled into a sense of 'see, it's fine'.  Until suddenly, it very much is not.

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Just now, Matryoshka said:

This is what I keep thinking.  With this more and more seeming to be driven so much by superspreader events, I keep worrying people could be lulled into a sense of 'see, it's fine'.  Until suddenly, it very much is not.

Right, exactly

I wonder what the superspreader events in NY were, and whether we'll ever know :-/. 

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7 hours ago, Bootsie said:

This is a quandary.  What does "safe" mean?  I don't think it will ever mean 0% chance that they get this, or any other, coronavirus, or influenza, or measles, or are in a car accident, or participate in an activity in which they fall and break their hip.  How do we even begin to define safe.  And who decides this?  Are the seniors part of that discussion?  

Of course the seniors are part of the discussion. In my mom’s case, she could even leave and move somewhere else. While it wouldn’t be easy, no one is forcing her to stay in an aging in place complex. Just today she asked and was told she could have a friend come pick her up and take her to lunch at her home. But they still don’t want guests coming to her apartment.

And they’ve always been allowed to walk outside. They are just asked to keep their distance unless it is a spouse. They can also gather outside with masks and social distancing.

Edited by Frances
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2 hours ago, Where's Toto? said:

That's probably the biggest thing about all this I don't understand.   IF you are in the "open up NOW" category, why wouldn't you be pushing masks?  That is the easiest way to control spread at this point.   I realize not everyone can wear masks, blah blah blah, but if those who can, do it could make a huge difference.

(I actually know the answer to my own confusion - people don't believe the virus is real, or going to affect them, or it's all a conspiracy, blah blah blah).

And don’t forget following their fearless leader’s excellent words and example and making a political statement.

Edited by Frances
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