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Our shelter in place just got extended through May 30 and people are DONE

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1 hour ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

But outside of the very specific context of a locked down retirement facility (where my 95 year old mom is also), everyone has been able to take walks, do puzzles and talk to friends. 

My mom moved into one just before this started and she is even allowed to take walks and talk to friends, both on the phone and in person with social distancing maintained and masks worn, preferably outside. The common areas are all closed, but people can walk throughout the building, outside, and in the parking garage. She said she’s gotten more exercise during the pandemic than she was ever able to get living at home because she has severe arthritis and uses a walker, and between snow, ice, heat, humidity, and very poorly maintained sidewalks, she was never able to get as much walking done as she desired. She has actually already made several new friends despite the restrictions, and they even leave treats for each other outside their doors. And so far, no one in any of their ten facilities state wide has been infected. She does say that a few residents grumble about the restrictions and not getting the social stuff they were promised (it’s a very new facility so almost everyone is a new resident), but that most are like her and fine with complying with all of the rules.

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19 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

I should have not used a qualitative ("drastically") metric. 30% fewer people makes what kind of difference, quantitatively?  Would you mind if we nerd-out and you share your calculations if 100% of the population gets it compared to 70%?  And the numbers when a good treatment is found is all speculative, right? Because if we find it soon, then how much of the population will have had it under current conditions compared to the numbers under the new conditions?  Right now, the CDC is reporting about 1,600,000/330,000,000 have been infected. If we can find a treatment soon, will the number even go over 1% under current conditions?  5%?  All of the numbers, 100%, 70%, 5%, and 1%, are all speculative, but I think the lower ones are most likely to be the ones we eventually land at, considering our ingenuity. Let's say 5% of the population gets it under current conditions; where does that put the calculations?  I would not bet that this is going to go through an overwhelming majority of the population under the current conditions. I would bet that we will get a handle on this by the time numbers reach low single-digits, making all of these estimates of 2,200,000 Americans dying a moot point. 

 

30% fewer people makes something like a 30% difference using the calculation I was using, which is an underestimate. 

I'm happy to show the calculation! Say your circle of loved ones is 20 people, and say the probability of person i dying is p_i: that is, person 1 has a probability of p_1 of dying, person 2 has a probability of p_2 of dying, etc. Then the probability of person i not dying is 1 - p_i. Assuming their probabilities of dying are independent (probably not quite true, but good enough to do the calculation), the probability of none of them dying is 

(1-p_1)*(1 - p_2)*...* (1- p_20)

Using the AM-GM inequality, 

(1-p_1)*(1 - p_2)*...* (1- p_20) <= (1/20*((1- p_1) + (1-p_2) + ... + (1-p_n)))^20 = ((1 - (p_1 + p_2 + .... + p_n)/20)^20

If the people you know are distributed similarly to the US population (and the infection rate is similar in different places), then (p_1 + ... + p_n)/20, their average probability of dying, should be similar to the average probability of dying in the general population. Now, if 70% of the population is infected, and the IFR is 0.5%, then the probability of a random person dying is 

0.5%*70% = 0.35%. 

Then the probability of no one dying in your group of 20 loved ones is at most (1 - 0.0035)^20 = 93%. So then there's at least a 7% of someone you know dying from COVID-19. 

Now, note that this does NOT apply if we find a treatment or limit spread! If only 5% of the population get it, then the calculation is very different. And what I'm really hoping is that we limit spread. However, note that there are geographic areas in NY in which 30%+ of the population has had it, so it is absolutely within the realm of plausibility to imagine 70% of the people getting this virus. It's not something that simply couldn't happen. 

Edited by square_25
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19 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

I second this. I am in the land of the free too and what I am seeing is nothing irresponsible. Who are these people who are irresponsible ??? Everyone in my neighborhood is leaning towards paranoid sanitizing. We may die of bleach fumes than COVID 😂

Well, I am in Illinois, and we have the irresponsible people here. I went out 2x this week, and I've decided I'm going to wait this out far away from other people. I decided we had to drop co-op next year because members weren't social distancing at all during an end of school year pickup. There were over 20 in the church building, and I and 1 other lady were masked. No more than 10 at a time and masked indoors is the law in IL, and it's what the church requested they do as well. I was at Walmart taking a family member to cash a check this week, and I saw 4 people wearing masks into the store and then immediately taking them off when they passed the "gatekeeper". One other person at Walmart wore a Halloween mask with a breathing hole right over the mouth.:huh: 

My county had an almost 40% increase in cases this week. The county next to me was a steeper climb. 

Edited by beckyjo
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44 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

My state is one of those that opened. But they have a plan. Everyone I know is masking, gloving, paranoid sanitizing of amazon boxes and wiping groceries. Not enough traffic on the road even during rush hour. Curbside pickup, delivery of food where you do not meet the person. Even in so called reckless states that are opening up people are being careful regardless of government advice is my personal experience. 

Then you are very lucky. My state has a plan and the vast majority of counties have entered Phase 1 with some things being opened up statewide even before that and many things never shut down. But for the public, masking is only required on public transportation. Of course it is recommended and encouraged. But masking is not the norm many places here in businesses or when people gather in large numbers to protest or worship.

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7 minutes ago, beckyjo said:

Well, I am in Illinois, and we have the irresponsible people here. I went out 2x this week, and I've decided I'm going to wait this out far away from other people. I decided we had to drop co-op next year because members weren't social distancing at all during an end of school year pickup. There were over 20 in the church building, and I and 1 other lady were masked. No more than 10 at a time and masked indoors is the law in IL, and it's what the church requested they do as well. I was at Walmart taking a family member to cash a check this week, and I saw 4 people wearing masks into the store and then immediately taking them off when they passed the "gatekeeper". One other person at Walmart wore a Halloween mask with a breathing hole right over the mouth.:huh: 

My county had an almost 40% increase in cases this week. The county next to me was a steeper climb. 

I was just looking at the Illinois numbers, since my sister is at the University of Chicago (well, she's studying online for now, but she was there until March...) They are not going down much if at all, as far as I can tell. It's a steady stream of cases. I don't understand why people wouldn't be careful :-/. 

Edited by square_25
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There are irresponsible people everywhere and some who just don’t care.  When we went to Menard’s earlier today, we chose that store because they require masks. Several people today wore their masks past the guard but them slipped them off. It made me angry. We chose that store because of the mask policy and those who don’t wish to wear one could have went to either of the two other home improvement stores just down the freaking street. 

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14 minutes ago, beckyjo said:

Well, I am in Illinois, and we have the irresponsible people here. I went out 2x this week, and I've decided I'm going to wait this out far away from other people. I decided we had to drop co-op next year because members weren't social distancing at all during an end of school year pickup. There were over 20 in the church building, and I and 1 other lady were masked. No more than 10 at a time and masked indoors is the law in IL, and it's what the church requested they do as well. I was at Walmart taking a family member to cash a check this week, and I saw 4 people wearing masks into the store and then immediately taking them off when they passed the "gatekeeper". One other person at Walmart wore a Halloween mask with a breathing hole right over the mouth.:huh: 

My county had an almost 40% increase in cases this week. The county next to me was a steeper climb. 

I don't go out much, but we drive a lot around randomly and even rush hour is nonexistent. We have curbside pick up even for little ethnic stores we frequent. My hair salon owner sold me the hair products I need to dye my hair and gave me instructions, no pressure about coming in person. We walk a lot ,everyone maintains distance. People cook in their backyards and live outside a lot. We smell food cooking, kids laughing, music, some families even have movies outside. Several families have bought sports equipment to play outside. We drop off food for neighbors on their porch and the do that. Today I got an indignant phone call from my neighbor who told me how her husband had to school our local pizza delivery place because even though the person wore mask and gloves and delivered pizza they did not leave it on the porch and go after ringing the doorbell and was actually there when they opened the door even after they paid over the phone including tips. This is how much people are being careful. Now my neighborhood is not the example I understand but just based on traffic alone I will say people are being responsible. I just do not see the "highly irresponsible" people being the majority. Most people are masking and gloving for their own safety first even in my state which is open I would say.

ETA: Pools are being open. 25% occupancy. No locker rooms. They will only be open on the weekends in my gym. My neighborhood pool is not open for the season.

Edited by Dreamergal
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1 minute ago, Dreamergal said:

I don't go out much, but we drive a lot around randomly and even rush hour is nonexistent. We have curbside pick up even for little ethnic stores we frequent. My hair salon owner sold me the hair products I need to dye my hair and gave me instructions, no pressure about coming in person. We walk a lot ,everyone maintains distance. People cook in their backyards and live outside a lot. We smell food cooking, kids laughing, music, some families even have movies outside. Several families have bought sports equipment to play outside. We drop off food for neighbors on their porch and the do that. Today I got an indignant phone call from my neighbor who told me how her husband had to school our local pizza delivery place because even though the person wore and mask and gloves and delivered pizza they did not leave it on the porch and go after ringing the doorbell and was actually there when they opened the door even after they paid over the phone including tips. This is how much people are being careful. Now my neighborhood is not the example I understand but just based on traffic alone I will say people are being responsible. I just do it see the "highly irresponsible" people being the majority. Most people are masking and gloving for their own safety first even in my state which is open.

I think this really really depends on the state. Which state do you live in, if you don't mind me asking? 

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My county doesn’t show PPE info on their dashboards. Below is for hospitals usage. My county is the hardest hit among the Bay Area counties. 

51F1AE59-0290-4237-B1AD-48D94328F15E.png

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2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I think this really really depends on the state. Which state do you live in, if you don't mind me asking? 

A metropolitan city in Texas. 

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1 minute ago, Dreamergal said:

A metropolitan city in Texas. 

Hm. Well, if you're in Austin, where we lived for 8 years, I would guess the attitudes are very different from Dallas or Houston. If you're in Dallas or Houston, I'm surprised. 

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47 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

 

 

48 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

When should you open up when states have different levels of COVID and hospitals and beds. New York cannot be a measure of the rest of the country nor can West Virginia which last I checked was the state with the least (I do not check other state levels frequently for my sanity so this could be incorrect current information). My state opened up but everyone I know is being responsible. Most are. No one wants this stupid virus but I would also sit outside and visit with a friend even if I have to wear a mask. I want to mask and go grocery shopping to support my local ethnic store so they will survive this and be around. I would love to find a way to safely cut my hair because I want my stylist who is a small business owner to be around and look nice too. I want to find a way to do that safely. But I want my favorite small businesses to survive too and for that we must open up slowly because not every business is deemed essential. 

I also don’t think anyone is arguing for a one size fits all across the entire country. Most people are talking about what is going on in their state and location, as that is what they have the most knowledge about. And yeah, everyone I know is being responsible, but that by no stretch of the imagination means everyone here is. And despite numbers that are continuing to increase, my county entered Phase I yesterday, so my stylist can now open. And if you’re worried about your stylist’s survival, you could pay them for any services you missed during the pandemic, if you are able. I plan to do so at my first appointment, and have already done so for our relatively new cleaning person.

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8 hours ago, kand said:

Curious, non-snarky question: I’m trying to really understand this point of view (that crowded businesses are positive right now and people should return to typical public behavior) from your perspective in order that I might understand this way of thinking better. In your mind, do you think it’s unlikely you or any of your loved ones will be seriously ill or die from this, or do you think it’s likely, but you’re okay with that? 

Statistically speaking, yes, we will most likely be spared. I have already had friends and family who have contracted the virus and have recovered and/or are recovering without hospitalization. The oldest recovered being 81.

Death comes in many forms and is always sad for those left behind. I'm thankful that this world is not the end and because of my faith in Jesus Christ I have hope of eternal life.

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Just now, square_25 said:

Hm. Well, if you're in Austin, where we lived for 8 years, I would guess the attitudes are very different from Dallas or Houston. If you're in Dallas or Houston, I'm surprised. 

Not Austin. One of the two cities mentioned for reasons of privacy. What I am seeing is totally different from what is allegedly happening. 

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By the way, the focus on NY as the hardest hit area is behind the times ;-). NY has controlled its outbreak. It is about the only state whose curve looks like the European curves -- sharp spike, and then sharp downward trajectory. They also have tons of testing (I could either get a PCR or an antibody test across the street) and have mandated masks. Upstate NY has started reopening, and I would guess that NYC and Long Island are not that far from reopening, assuming people don't go too wild on Memorial Day. 

Edited by square_25
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Just now, Dreamergal said:

Not Austin. One of the two cities mentioned for reasons of privacy. What I am seeing is totally different from what is allegedly happening. 

I'm glad to hear that. I hope everyone's being careful, not just people around you, but if they are, then that bodes well for Texas :-). 

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38 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

I second this. I am in the land of the free too and what I am seeing is nothing irresponsible. Who are these people who are irresponsible ??? Everyone in my neighborhood is leaning towards paranoid sanitizing. We may die of bleach fumes than COVID 😂

Have you not seen pictures in newspapers of crowds of people without masks and not social distancing? I’ve seen them both locally and nationally. While I haven’t been anywhere except my backyard and one quick trip to my worksite for an important item, my husband reports that during most of his errands, he is in the minority wearing a mask.

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3 minutes ago, Heartwood said:

Statistically speaking, yes, we will most likely be spared. I have already had friends and family who have contracted the virus and have recovered and/or are recovering without hospitalization. The oldest recovered being 81.

Death comes in many forms and is always sad for those left behind. I'm thankful that this world is not the end and because of my faith in Jesus Christ I have hope of eternal life.

I suppose that perspective isn't as helpful as it might be for an atheist like me ;-). 

I assume the COVID cases were confirmed by test? Either way, I'm glad everyone recovered easily. 

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2 minutes ago, Frances said:

Have you not seen pictures in newspapers of crowds of people without masks and not social distancing? I’ve seen them both locally and nationally. While I haven’t been anywhere except my backyard and one quick trip to my worksite for an important item, my husband reports that during most of his errands, he is in the minority wearing a mask.

These are not the majority is what I am seeing. I don't see crowds because I do not grocery shop. We have grocery delivery but we do go out to ethnic stores, we have been to the nursery. My neighbors get food delivered, they have curbside pickup for stores that do not have a drivethru.  Masks are common here than not. Very patriotic masks made from flag material too. But pretty much everyone I know is masking. There will be exceptions always but I am going to err on people are being safe even in a state that is opening before anyone was ready. Regardless of blustery politician words people are doing what they will for their own safety is my take on it. 

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5 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I suppose that perspective isn't as helpful as it might be for an atheist like me ;-). 

I assume the COVID cases were confirmed by test? Either way, I'm glad everyone recovered easily. 

Yeah, atheism doesn't provide any hope for eternal life.

And, yes, they were tested.

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14 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

I don't go out much, but we drive a lot around randomly and even rush hour is nonexistent. We have curbside pick up even for little ethnic stores we frequent. My hair salon owner sold me the hair products I need to dye my hair and gave me instructions, no pressure about coming in person. We walk a lot ,everyone maintains distance. People cook in their backyards and live outside a lot. We smell food cooking, kids laughing, music, some families even have movies outside. Several families have bought sports equipment to play outside. We drop off food for neighbors on their porch and the do that. Today I got an indignant phone call from my neighbor who told me how her husband had to school our local pizza delivery place because even though the person wore mask and gloves and delivered pizza they did not leave it on the porch and go after ringing the doorbell and was actually there when they opened the door even after they paid over the phone including tips. This is how much people are being careful. Now my neighborhood is not the example I understand but just based on traffic alone I will say people are being responsible. I just do not see the "highly irresponsible" people being the majority. Most people are masking and gloving for their own safety first even in my state which is open I would say.

ETA: Pools are being open. 25% occupancy. No locker rooms. They will only be open on the weekends in my gym. My neighborhood pool is not open for the season.

Good, that’s wonderful for you, but no reason to doubt when people are reporting different things in other parts of the country. Although I think “highly irresponsible” is subjective, so I would tend to just stick to observable behaviors, e.g. concerning masks. And it certainly doesn’t need to be a majority not following to have a significant impact. 

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4 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

These are not the majority is what I am seeing. I don't see crowds because I do not grocery shop. We have grocery delivery but we do go out to ethnic stores, we have been to the nursery. My neighbors get food delivered, they have curbside pickup for stores that do not have a drivethru.  Masks are common here than not. Very patriotic masks made from flag material too. But pretty much everyone I know is masking. There will be exceptions always but I am going to err on people are being safe even in a state that is opening before anyone was ready. Regardless of blustery politician words people are doing what they will for their own safety is my take on it. 

I think we've heard enough people describe lots of people without masks to know that this really is happening some places. Masks really have become politicized, unfortunately. I wish they hadn't. 

Edited by square_25
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10 minutes ago, Heartwood said:

Yeah, atheism doesn't provide any hope for eternal life.

And, yes, they were tested.

 

Nor any unreasonable fear of being tortured forever, so there is that. I know not all Christians believe in Hell, but I find the idea profoundly immoral, no matter what the people there are supposed to have done.

Actually, you could be an atheist and still believe in some sort of afterlife. It's an odd position, to be sure, but atheism just means you don't believe in deities. You could believe in other supernatural entities or an afterlife and still honestly call yourself an atheist.

Edited by Tanaqui
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Just now, Frances said:

Good, that’s wonderful for you, but no reason to doubt when people are reporting different things in other parts of the country. Although I think “highly irresponsible” is subjective, so I would tend to just stick to observable behaviors, e.g. concerning masks. And it certainly doesn’t need to be a majority not following to have a significant impact. 

I am not doubting anyone as I am not boots on the ground in another state. But likewise you cannot say people in states that are opening up before they are "ready" have people living recklessly based on pictures or politician words. People are being careful regardless of what is going on in politics because they want their families to be safe which is the biggest motivation anyone can in my experience. Ultimately that will what will control it, people being individually responsible ,not shutting down and have us all be inside without opening up in stages.

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1 minute ago, Dreamergal said:

These are not the majority is what I am seeing. I don't see crowds because I do not grocery shop. We have grocery delivery but we do go out to ethnic stores, we have been to the nursery. My neighbors get food delivered, they have curbside pickup for stores that do not have a drivethru.  Masks are common here than not. Very patriotic masks made from flag material too. But pretty much everyone I know is masking. There will be exceptions always but I am going to err on people are being safe even in a state that is opening before anyone was ready. Regardless of blustery politician words people are doing what they will for their own safety is my take on it. 

It doesn’t have to be the majority for it to have an impact. I haven’t been out at all, but in addition to the pictures I see, my husband reports that he is the minority wearing a mask when doing errands. Now maybe it is due to the types of places he is going, primarily hardware, home improvement, and auto stores. We do grocery pick up and order everything possible online. Perhaps everyone is masking here at grocery stores, Walmart, Target, etc. But I wouldn’t presume to take what I know about here and say anything about another location, even within my state, unless I knew several people with first hand knowledge.

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1 minute ago, square_25 said:

I think we've heard enough people describe lots of people without masks to know that this really is happening some places. Masks really have become politicized, unfortunately. I wish they hadn't. 

Not doubting anyone. But that is not the general behavior is what I am saying. You are not going to hear the stories about people wearing masks, but anyone not wearing will get attention. But based on experience, even in a state where individual liberty matters people are being responsible and not reckless because of some political stand. They are being safe for their families. 

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9 minutes ago, Heartwood said:

Yeah, atheism doesn't provide any hope for eternal life.

And, yes, they were tested.

Some people don’t care about eternal life, they accept that death is just naturally part of life. And according to lots of believers, many other religions also don’t provide any hope for eternal life, just false promises.

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1 minute ago, Frances said:

It doesn’t have to be the majority for it to have an impact. I haven’t been out at all, but in addition to the pictures I see, my husband reports that he is the minority wearing a mask when doing errands. Now maybe it is due to the types of places he is going, primarily hardware, home improvement, and auto stores. We do grocery pick up and order everything possible online. Perhaps everyone is masking here at grocery stores, Walmart, Target, etc. But I wouldn’t presume to take what I know about here and say anything about another location, even within my state, unless I knew several people with first hand knowledge.

You report what you see, I report what I see. You and I cannot generalize based on behavior that people are being generally reckless or generally safe. The truth is somewhere in the middle. What I see is even in a state where there is concern that actions of politicians are reckless in opening and leans a particular way in politics, I do not see reckless behavior in my area but that does not mean it does not exist. But in my sphere of knowledge, even people who lean a certain way politically are being careful for their families, not take a stand on politics is what I will say. Safe behavior still exists. 

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7 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

I am not doubting anyone as I am not boots on the ground in another state. But likewise you cannot say people in states that are opening up before they are "ready" have people living recklessly based on pictures or politician words. People are being careful regardless of what is going on in politics because they want their families to be safe which is the biggest motivation anyone can in my experience. Ultimately that will what will control it, people being individually responsible ,not shutting down and have us all be inside without opening up in stages.

I’ve only talked about my city in my state. 

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4 minutes ago, Frances said:

I’ve only talked about my city in my state. 

Me too. Only my state and my city. But since mine leans a certain way and is one of those opened "recklessly",  I wanted to mention it and say what I see. Perhaps it would be reassuring, perhaps not.

Edited by Dreamergal
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1 minute ago, Dreamergal said:

You report what you see, I report what I see. You and I cannot generalize based on behavior that people are being generally reckless or generally safe. The truth is somewhere in the middle. What I see is even in a state where there is concern that actions of politicians are reckless in opening and leans a particular way in politics, I do not see reckless behavior in my area but that does not mean it does not exist. But in my sphere of knowledge, even people who lean a certain way politically are being careful for their families, not take a stand on politics is what I will say. Safe behavior still exists. 

I have no knowledge of your state and do not doubt anything you are saying about your location.  I am only making reports about my city in my state. I am not generalizing or attempting to say the majority are or are not being safe (however one defines it) all over the country or about any particular place of which I have no knowledge. I have commented at times about the bars opening up and being crowded in WI because it was widely reported in the news and by on the ground family members and my mom just moved to a town there with a large, active bar scene. But otherwise, just my own city in my own state.

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11 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

Not doubting anyone. But that is not the general behavior is what I am saying. You are not going to hear the stories about people wearing masks, but anyone not wearing will get attention. But based on experience, even in a state where individual liberty matters people are being responsible and not reckless because of some political stand. They are being safe for their families. 

Well, for what it's worth, everyone in NYC that we see is wearing masks. So that's a story about people wearing masks. They've been promoting masks very heavily around here. 

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3 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

Me too. Only my state and my city. But since mine leans a certain way and is one of those opened "recklessly",  I wanted to mention it and say what I see. Perhaps it would be reassuring, perhaps not.

 

The thing is, once states "open up" personal choice goes out the window. Why? Because you can't get unemployment if your job is still available. So once states "open up" individuals who cannot work from home and who do not have a financial cushion no longer will be able to purchase food or pay the rent if they do not go to work - even if they're high risk, or live with somebody who is high risk. There is no "right to work", not honestly, unless you correspondingly have the "right to stay home and not get a disease that will likely kill you because you are high risk". This is the "right to starve".

Edited by Tanaqui
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18 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I think we've heard enough people describe lots of people without masks to know that this really is happening some places. Masks really have become politicized, unfortunately. I wish they hadn't. 

Masks and HCQ - both sides of the divide are doing it.

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2 minutes ago, TCB said:

Masks and HCQ - both sides of the divide are doing it.

 

Yeah, but we don't have to make personal decisions about hydroxychloroquine day to day. And on a medical level, there are absolutely trials being run.

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3 minutes ago, TCB said:

Masks and HCQ - both sides of the divide are doing it.

 

Asking people to look at the science is not being political.

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10 minutes ago, Tanaqui said:

 

The thing is, once states "open up" personal choice goes out the window. Why? Because you can't get unemployment if your job is still available. So once states "open up" individuals who cannot work from home and who do not have a financial cushion no longer will be able to purchase food or pay the rent if they do not go to work - even if they're high risk, or live with somebody who is high risk. There is no "right to work", not honestly, unless you correspondingly have the "right to stay home and not get a disease that will likely kill you because you are high risk". This is the "right to starve".

It is absolutely above my pay grade or honestly my intelligence to figure an answer to this. But these cannot be reasons we can shut down entirely is what I will say. I keep hearing all sorts of things like Maine saying every teacher about 60 must retire ? I do not know what is truth, what is fantasy and what is politicized "truth". We truly live in the age of truthiness. 

Edited by Dreamergal
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2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

Yeah, but we don't have to make personal decisions about hydroxychloroquine day to day. And on a medical level, there are absolutely trials being run.

I agree. Actually I was kind of wondering just now which of the 2 will prove to have saved more lives.

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If the block party next door with 15+ kids on an inflatable waterside and various adults in a non-socially distanced circle under a pop up shade is any indication, no one here is being as cautious as I am. This party is literally right over our fence. I am really sad about keeping my kids apart from everyone. And I'm sad about being the weirdo.

I keep waffling thinking it might be okay because everyone is outdoors.  But there is a lot of wrestling with kids on top of each other and the little girls are so huggy.

On the upside, friends of ours in another neighborhood are letting us use their pool one afternoon a week and we socialize on the patio with chairs 6ft apart.

Edited by EmseB
not sure what my phone is typing when I'm not looking???
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Just now, TCB said:

I agree. Actually I was kind of wondering just now which of the 2 will prove to have saved more lives.

Well, at the moment, HCQ isn't showing great results in trials, and countries with high mask usage have FAR fewer deaths than we do. So I'm going to go with masks. 

But it's possible SOME treatment will work better than masks. I'd like that, because it's not like I like covering my face up :-P. 

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2 hours ago, Dreamergal said:

Yes, 1% is still a lot. Spanish Flu killed 5% of the population in my native country and it was in the millions. So I do understand it. But starvation kills too, perhaps not in America but in many countries around the world. Lack of medical care for other diseases. Recently there was an increase in polio because of COVID and politics. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/polio-was-almost-eradicated-then-came-the-coronavirus-then-came-a-threat-from-president-trump/2020/05/15/ed9d26fe-831c-11ea-81a3-9690c9881111_story.html

So what is the balance ? Is it wrong to say we need a balance ? The world does not stop or things like vaccine preventable diseases or cancer that can be detected early or heart attacks that need ICU. We cannot put the world on pause for COVID until a proven treatment is found or a vaccine. Just not sustainable in my view. 

This is a huge concern for friends of mine around the world.  Third world countries can not shut down and have enough food and medical care.   If medical clinics are shut down, rates of other diseases will go up, more children dying from malnutrition and diarrhea.

Even here in Michigan, my doctor was open and got me fast tracked through testing for possible cancer (negative).  She said though that so many people were ending up in ER because either their doctors officers were closed or they were too scared to go in .....and they ended up in diabetic crisis, heart issues, and other issues that could have been kept from crisis status with access to routine be care.

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1 minute ago, EmseB said:

If the block party next door with 15+ kids on an inflatable waterside and various adults in a non-socially distanced circle under a pop up shade is any indication, no one here is being as cautious as I am. This party is literally right over our fencehungry. I am really sad about keeping my kids apart from everyone. And I'm sad about being the weirdo.

I keep waffling thinking it might be okay because everyone is outdoors.  But there is a lot of wrestling with kids on top of each other and the little girls are so huggy.

On the upside, friends of ours in another neighborhood are letting us use their pool one afternoon a week and we socialize on the patio with chairs 6ft apart.

I would say that's an indication, yes :-/. And I'm sorry your neighbors are being so reckless. I assume no one has had the virus nearby? 

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8 minutes ago, Tanaqui said:

 

Asking people to look at the science is not being political.

I agree. But honestly my personal opinion is that it is more than just asking people to look at the science for both of those. My personal opinion is that masks have been more politicized than HCQ, but I think that it seems to be true of both. 

Edited by TCB

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3 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

It is absolutely above my pay grade or honestly my intelligence to figure an answer to this. But these cannot be reasons we can shut down entirely is what I will say. I keep hearing all sorts of things like Maine saying every teacher about 60 must retire ? I do not know what is truth, what is fantasy and what is politicized "truth". We truly live in the age of truthiness. 

 

Dreamergal, who told you that they wanted to "shut down entirely"? Or, if nobody told you that personally, where did you hear that anybody wants this?

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2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Well, at the moment, HCQ isn't showing great results in trials, and countries with high mask usage have FAR fewer deaths than we do. So I'm going to go with masks. 

But it's possible SOME treatment will work better than masks. I'd like that, because it's not like I like covering my face up :-P. 

I would love to see some good data on masks too. It makes sense intuitively to me that it protects others from the wearer but I would love to see cold, hard facts.

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6 minutes ago, TCB said:

I would love to see some good data on masks too. It makes sense intuitively to me that it protects others from the wearer but I would love to see cold, hard facts.

I think that one's a little hard to study like that, because it's a collective action issue. It's not like you can give some people masks and others no masks and see how each group does, because your mask protects other people more than you. There's no randomized controlled trial for this one. 

I think looking at how the Asian countries have done and the fact that in NY, the fraction of healthcare workers that had antibodies was smaller than the fraction of the whole population that did is enough for me. Plus it simply makes sense, given that most superspreader events have been due to aerosolized particles. 

I suppose we might wind up doing some natural experiments between the states, but even that's not going to be an RCT level of evidence. 

Edited by square_25
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6 minutes ago, TCB said:

I agree. But honestly my personal opinion is that it is more than just asking people to look at the science for both of those. My personal opinion is that masks have been more politicized than HCQ, but I think that it seems to be true of both. 

I don't disagree that both have, I just think they have very disparate impacts. The mask issue requires people to buy in and the HCQ one much less so. Plus, even if it hadn't been politicized, the data has been worrisome enough that I can imagine people not wanting to take it regardless of who promoted it. 

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Off-topic:

Yeast packets are back in stock at Whole Foods. They have two types of hand sanitizer too, a small spray bottle and a bigger non-spray bottle.

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2 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I think that one's a little hard to study like that, because it's a collective action issue. It's not like you can give some people masks and others no masks and see how each group does, because your mask protects other people more than you. There's no randomized controlled trial for this one. 

I think looking at how the Asian countries have done and the fact that in NY, healthcare workers had fewer antibodies than the entire population is enough for me. Plus it simply makes sense, given that most superspreader events have been due to aerosolized particles. 

I suppose we might wind up doing some natural experiments between the states, but even that's not going to be an RCT level of evidence. 

I wasn’t really thinking RCT. More maybe some study in a lab measuring virus particles going through them etc. under sneeze and cough conditions. I think there has been some of this but my impression of the whole thing has been more educated guesses than anything. I think maybe scientists think it’s obvious so not worth bothering - don’t know. My FB friends keep posting crackpot stuff saying masks are dangerous for the wearer. I’ve asked one or two why they think this but the studies they linked aren’t really saying that and I’ve sort of given up discussing now. If we get more spread in this area maybe they’ll be more open to discussion but I don’t hold out too much hope.

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