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Our shelter in place just got extended through May 30 and people are DONE


sassenach
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2 hours ago, square_25 said:

I apologize on behalf of my state :-/. The outbreak is much more under control here now, so I hope they aren't actually bringing the virus. 

We always have tons of summer people from New York. This year the influx started early; by March the roads look like they do in a June. Definitely people were fleeing.

I don’t exactly begrudge people wanting to escape and ride out the summer tucked away from the “real world”. Except that their desire for a relaxing, lobster roll filled vacay in my backyard means I don’t get to go out. It means that as our death rate climbs, my kid will pay the price of their leisure trip by having a far from optimal senior year. It means my DH, who is at extra risk, has gone for a drive once since March, and didn’t get out of the car.
 

We took  a short walk right in our neighbourhood after I posted. TN, NJ, AZ, OH, TX, more MA and more NY. Sigh. We had summer plans, too. 😞

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44 minutes ago, EmseB said:

My county is rural. Having more individualized management means that while we are on the governor's poopy list for increasing community spread, larger cities that are doing better per capita and with better hospital capacity aren't beholden to our lag in getting this thing.

I don't understand your meaning. Maybe I need caffeine. I'll try to explain why I am confused.

I am not sure what it means to be on the governor's poopy list. We don't have one of those--rules apply across the state, so there is no poopy list. Depending who I talk to in other states, poopy list means bad numbers, or it means being "pooped on"--shut down when there aren't local cases. 

By cities being beholden, do you mean that cities that are recovering are not tied to the spread in rural counties? Most of the states where I am hearing pleas to open up by county are wanting the rural areas opened up because there is no spread, and the best I can understand your statement, you think the rural areas are holding back the urban areas (and I'm not sure why), so I am trying to figure out if our experience is different, or if I am just really completely lost about what you mean. 

6 minutes ago, square_25 said:

We thought about leaving, to be honest. It didn't feel right. And I didn't see what the advantage was, either... we're managing here, and we can get grocery delivery, which you can't in lots of places. So we're managing to keep our contact with people to almost 0. I don't think that would have been possible elsewhere. 

I think fleeing if you have family at the destination makes some sense. I think wanting to be where there are fewer people makes sense, but for me, that is an every day goal, not just a pandemic goal, lol! One of my lines of thinking when I consider where I want to live is whether I'd want to be there if a natural disaster struck or if there was a major catastrophic event. When applied to cities, my answer is generally a big no, and a big part of that is dealing with the behavior of others. I am on the margin of comfortable where I currently live--I think we'd have major traffic backups if we had to evacuate for something, but I don't think most catastrophic events that could happen here would be eased with evacuation (no hurricanes or wildfires, and flooding seems to be in fairly predictable areas vs. widespread). 

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25 minutes ago, square_25 said:

And as it turns out, we had no clue where the hotspots were!

Yes, we had guesses that turned out to not be what we thought, but not solid information. I thinking we all thought some of the early areas where they were seeing spread would be the worst (WA and CA).

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Dh and I needed to make a quick run to a home improvement store and it was complete craziness. So much traffic and so many people everywhere. I’ll be completely shocked if we don’t have a spike after this holiday weekend. 
 

I get wanting to go out but I do wish it was a bit tamer here. I am planning on taking dd to a book store next week but only because this is my 18 year old ASD kiddo who hasn’t really left the house at all and I’m worried this will turn into her being afraid to leave. The book store was the only place she has any interest in going to right now so hopefully it won’t be too crowded. The week after next we’re also planning a quick two night RV camping trip. She truly needs to get out and see it’s ok. 

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1 hour ago, Dreamergal said:

I think Memorial day weekend is going to be a true test of what will happen. How people behave. Will there be a spike. But we cannot blast the doors open nor can we totally shutdown. There has to an optimum balance. But what is it ? I certainly have no clue.

We never did totally shut down.  And every single state in the US is in some form of reopening.  So this "nor can we totally shutdown" is a false dichotomy which has never existed in this country. 

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16 minutes ago, Joker said:


I get wanting to go out but I do wish it was a bit tamer here. I am planning on taking dd to a book store next week but only because this is my 18 year old ASD kiddo who hasn’t really left the house at all and I’m worried this will turn into her being afraid to leave. The book store was the only place she has any interest in going to right now so hopefully it won’t be too crowded. The week after next we’re also planning a quick two night RV camping trip. She truly needs to get out and see it’s ok. 

Farmers markets. Those are outdoors and you and your daughter can sit in the car and watch the human traffic if your daughter doesn’t feel comfortable being with people again.

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44 minutes ago, kbutton said:

I don't understand your meaning. Maybe I need caffeine. I'll try to explain why I am confused.

I am not sure what it means to be on the governor's poopy list. We don't have one of those--rules apply across the state, so there is no poopy list. Depending who I talk to in other states, poopy list means bad numbers, or it means being "pooped on"--shut down when there aren't local cases. 

By cities being beholden, do you mean that cities that are recovering are not tied to the spread in rural counties? Most of the states where I am hearing pleas to open up by county are wanting the rural areas opened up because there is no spread, and the best I can understand your statement, you think the rural areas are holding back the urban areas (and I'm not sure why), so I am trying to figure out if our experience is different, or if I am just really completely lost about what you mean. 

I mean that by doing a county-by-county approach, just because my rural county has cases going up, it doesn't mean that more populated places that have already peaked and have better metrics can't open. I was responding to this:

"The county approach probably works okay for big cities, but it really exposes more rural areas that are touristy, have cabin rentals, etc. especially when they are within a day's drive or less of a major metro area."

In our state right now, the reverse is actually the case, with more metro areas and tourist places telling us rural folk to keep out. We don't have a statewide approach; out state is huge and varied...it would be draconian and counter productive to keep the whole state on the same plan. 

Although I just looked at the local news and apparently the governor moved us to a more relaxed phase. I dont pay quite as much attention because I am just...keeping us to ourselves regardless of what the phase is.

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39 minutes ago, Joker said:

Dh and I needed to make a quick run to a home improvement store and it was complete craziness. So much traffic and so many people everywhere. I’ll be completely shocked if we don’t have a spike after this holiday weekend. 
 

I get wanting to go out but I do wish it was a bit tamer here. I am planning on taking dd to a book store next week but only because this is my 18 year old ASD kiddo who hasn’t really left the house at all and I’m worried this will turn into her being afraid to leave. The book store was the only place she has any interest in going to right now so hopefully it won’t be too crowded. The week after next we’re also planning a quick two night RV camping trip. She truly needs to get out and see it’s ok. 

I live about 60 miles outside of Seattle, WA.  Not including the last week of March, all of the big chain stores have been full any time I've went out (about twice a week) and the traffic has been average with pre-virus levels. Our cases have not been high or have had any spikes.  We entered Phase 1 on May 5 and are one of 10 counties that can apply for Phase 2 before June 1. Have fun on your RV trip!

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The different phases are so confusing. Someone being on phase 1 and can apply for phase 2 in June?  We started reopening the beginning of May, are already on phase 3 and our governor intends for everything to be back open July 4th! They seem to just be picking stuff at random and hoping for the best.
 

I’m going to mostly stay home and just watch what happens. I have zero desire to eat in a restaurant or be in any enclosed or crowded space for a very long time. 

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2 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

I don’t know enough about semantics to know if shutdown was what we did. But I do know we did not have lockdown.

But I know one week we were a regular suburban family with DH working from home occasionally, public schooling, gym going, restaurant eating , grocery shopping in ethnic stores family. Our life was filled with ordinary days which came to screeching halt on March 13th. Now we are a grocery delivery, at home exercising, amazon buying , online PS and at home work and cooking family. We take walks outside, have a garden to exercise, amazon delivered sports equipment, we were able to buy plants from a nursery through curb side delivery and so on. We have telemedicine needed. My doctor answers via email. 
 

Lockdown on the other hand is a very different thing. Someone comes each day to my parents house to ask for temperature checks and if anyone is sick. Government sprays on the streets each day, No amazon delivery of anything even masks and gloves. I have always sent stuff using amazon India from here. No delivery of even electronics. No exercising outside. Grocery bare essentials. Domestic help without a bank account cannot be paid by my parents because they pay by cash, but she cannot come to get it so who knows what is happening in her family. No local flights. Schools are a mess.

Both countries closed borders, cancelled visas. Shutdown we have a semblance of a life even now. Lockdown is not. Despite all the mistakes, quarantine is better here. So  I will prefer whatever we did to whatever is going on elsewhere. 

The important English word in your post was the adjective “totally “. That has a very specific meaning. 

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6 minutes ago, Danae said:

I keep saying this, but I really don't think people appreciate the extent to which this is a slow-rolling disaster.  Because of New York's experience the inland states took action when we were much earlier in our outbreak and slowed things down drastically. So now we've been sheltering at home for two months and people, as the title of this thread suggests, are DONE. The news is all about phased re-opening, and people look at the national numbers dropping and think it's over and we dodged it.  But we're still on an exponential growth curve, and unless that curve flattens dramatically in the next week or so things are about to go to hell.

 

And on the other hand, being told constantly that you're just 14 days away from disaster takes a toll. I'm sure everyone appreciates that it's really hard to live that way.

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12 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Oh, I think by March we did expect trouble here. But I don't think anyone saw it in February. The first official case was found on March 1st, I think. Things went quickly from there. But people were epically unworried in February. It wasn't here, after all, right? 

 

Oh, some people saw what was coming. I know one person who was sounding the alarm as early as mid-January.

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I wonder what things would look like if we hadn't shut down as much as we did so soon.

 

So soon? If we'd shut down even a week earlier we would've had half as many deaths. We dithered and dithered and nearly missed our chance entirely. And if we'd shut down two weeks sooner - and perhaps had a softer shut-down two weeks before that (government office workers sent to work from home as much as possible, extra programs at libraries and museums shut down, schools from the middle school level up through college closed, the bars and beaches and amuseument parks in warmer states closed, hairdressers and the like by appointment only) then we'd be in an even better spot now.

Heck, we knew that sooner or later we WOULD get another Spanish Flu. If the hospitals and doctor's offices and public transportation agencies and the like had all kept a surplus of facemasks and face shields, and if states had kept a supply to disburse to grocery stores, then we would not have had as many shortages. That would've helped a lot too.

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5 minutes ago, square_25 said:

I think they are doing OK on PPE in NY, but I just have that impression from the briefings. I'm not sure there's a good summary of that information anywhere. 

CA has a PPE inventory on its state dashboard, but I really can't place the numbers into any sort of meaningful context.

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4 hours ago, square_25 said:

Yes, we're in agreement, especially if you only include your nuclear family. What I'm saying is the chance someone you care about would die isn't that low. But perhaps 10% doesn't feel high to you. 

We know that people react very differently to the statement of "There is a 10% chance someone in your family will die" and the statement "There is a 90% chance no one in your family will die."  The way that we present the very same statistic has a major psychological impact.

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5 hours ago, square_25 said:

 

You're right, it's skewed. So my answer is actually a lower bound. If your circle of loved ones is distributed similarly to the general population, and you have 20 loved ones, then there's a more than 10% chance that one of them will die if everyone is infected. If you don't know anyone with preexisting conditions that's older, then maybe not. But if that's not true, then it's probably more like 1 in 5. 

The chance that one of your loved ones would die from the virus would actually be less if every single person had an exactly 0.5% chance of dying. Since that's merely the average, the actual answer is bigger. That's the Arithmetic Mean-Geometric Mean inequality for you, weirdly enough. I can show you the calculation. 

This is using the premise that 100% of the population will get it and that we find no meaningful treatments, correct?  

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22 minutes ago, EmseB said:

CA has a PPE inventory on its state dashboard, but I really can't place the numbers into any sort of meaningful context.

My county dashboard has it tracked as a thirty day supply. My nurse friends tell me that it's plentiful at our local hospitals right now.

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Just now, square_25 said:

Yep. Which I really, really, really hope isn't going to be true!! 

Herd immunity will kick in at 60-80% depending on which "expert" you think is correct, so your numbers would change dramatically, correct?  And if we happen to find some sort of standard treatment protocol sooner rather than later, that would also decrease the mortality rate?  So to say that there is a 10% chance someone you know will die is only correct using numbers and treatments we have now  and if 100% of the population is infected?

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My family received a note from a dear friend that I found so sad.  It read something like "time is moving so slowly or we are just all tired of having to eat in our rooms.  So, let's go for a walk, work a puzzle, talk to someone--enjoy life!"  To put this in context, she is 95 years old.  She worked in Europe with the World Council of Churches to help rebuild after WWII, she served as a missionary, she was a public school teacher, and still teaches her Sunday School class and an exercise class.  Both of her siblings have died and she never married.  She spent recent years taking care of a dear colleague and friend of many years who died within the past 6 months.  Her friends begged her to move into a retirement apartment so that she could enjoy all of the activities and be around people (and not drive her car as much).  So, she did that at the beginning of the year--the dining room has been closed with meals delivered outside each resident's room.  Of course, all of the social activities and gatherings have been cancelled.  The public areas where residents met to work puzzles or play dominoes are all closed.  

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3 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

My family received a note from a dear friend that I found so sad.  It read something like "time is moving so slowly or we are just all tired of having to eat in our rooms.  So, let's go for a walk, work a puzzle, talk to someone--enjoy life!"  To put this in context, she is 95 years old.  She worked in Europe with the World Council of Churches to help rebuild after WWII, she served as a missionary, she was a public school teacher, and still teaches her Sunday School class and an exercise class.  Both of her siblings have died and she never married.  She spent recent years taking care of a dear colleague and friend of many years who died within the past 6 months.  Her friends begged her to move into a retirement apartment so that she could enjoy all of the activities and be around people (and not drive her car as much).  So, she did that at the beginning of the year--the dining room has been closed with meals delivered outside each resident's room.  Of course, all of the social activities and gatherings have been cancelled.  The public areas where residents met to work puzzles or play dominoes are all closed.  

But outside of the very specific context of a locked down retirement facility (where my 95 year old mom is also), everyone has been able to take walks, do puzzles and talk to friends. 

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9 minutes ago, hopeallgoeswell said:

Herd immunity will kick in at 60-80% depending on which "expert" you think is correct, so your numbers would change dramatically, correct?  And if we happen to find some sort of standard treatment protocol sooner rather than later, that would also decrease the mortality rate?  So to say that there is a 10% chance someone you know will die is only correct using numbers and treatments we have now  and if 100% of the population is infected?

If 70% of the US population gets it and 1% die (which is conservative because there WILL be hospital overwhelm at that level), that's 2.2 million dead and tens of millions more who will be hospitalized for weeks or months, and potentially have long term or even permanent organ damage, lost limbs from blood clots, paralysis from stroke, lost fertility, miscarriages, etc. What are the odds that someone you care about will be among those millions? 

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35 minutes ago, sassenach said:

My county dashboard has it tracked as a thirty day supply. My nurse friends tell me that it's plentiful at our local hospitals right now.

Ours is said to be ok, and it is certainly better than it was at the start, but we still have to wear a basic surgical mask for 5 days before getting a new one. This is for wearing throughout our shift while we are around patients or other staff.  Before all this we would have worn that kind of mask for maybe up to an hour while we were in a patient's room and then discarded it.

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2 hours ago, EmseB said:

I mean that by doing a county-by-county approach, just because my rural county has cases going up, it doesn't mean that more populated places that have already peaked and have better metrics can't open. I was responding to this:

"The county approach probably works okay for big cities, but it really exposes more rural areas that are touristy, have cabin rentals, etc. especially when they are within a day's drive or less of a major metro area."

In our state right now, the reverse is actually the case, with more metro areas and tourist places telling us rural folk to keep out. We don't have a statewide approach; out state is huge and varied...it would be draconian and counter productive to keep the whole state on the same plan. 

Although I just looked at the local news and apparently the governor moved us to a more relaxed phase. I dont pay quite as much attention because I am just...keeping us to ourselves regardless of what the phase is.

Thanks for clarifying. The rural areas I hear about on FB (hometown acquaintances) are dying to open up because of fewer cases--they aren't getting flack from more urban areas at this point, so I wouldn't have really thought about the situation you're talking about. 

For sure, the waxing and waning of cases regionally is one of the chief difficulties in opening and closing! I am glad we have a statewide approach even though I know that there are probably some areas that are a bit frustrated. Generally, our state has a lot of middle-sized cities all spread out, not just big ones. A lot of the rural areas are not touristy. My home state is very different. The difference between rural and urban is much different, and the rural areas are very touristy. 

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re what "herd immunity" would have to look like, to get there "naturally"

4 hours ago, square_25 said:

 

I absolutely agree that would change behavior. That's why I'm really dubious about the idea that letting the virus run through the population will achieve herd immunity without affecting the economy. Because if we get to herd immunity, everyone will know someone local who died along the way. 

This, literally this.

"Herd immunity" -- whether it occurs "naturally" or with the support of vaccination, requires that at least 70%, for most diseases 80+%, of the population is immune, so that spread is suppressed, such that  the remaining unprotected population is unlikely to be exposed.

Wider antibody studies are lined up to start in June, which will test donated blood. At this point the best -- and it is evolving work-in-progress -- indicator of how close a particular population is to reaching the 70-80+% is the study conducted in end-April in New York state.  The study tested volunteers at shopping centers (so: to the extent there was selection bias, it was biased toward people who were out and about shopping during the most strict SIP interval, rather than relying on deliveries or family members -- and, thus, likely erred in a HIGHER incidence rate than for the overall population).  For New York City, the study found that incidence was just over 21%.

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The state randomly tested 3,000 people at grocery stores and shopping locations across 19 counties in 40 localities to see if they had the antibodies to fight the coronavirus, indicating they have had the virus and recovered from it, Cuomo said. 

 

With more than 19.4 million residents, according to U.S. Census data, the preliminary results indicate that at least 2.7 million New Yorkers have been infected with Covid-19.

The results differed across the state with the largest concentration of positive antibody tests found in New York City at 21.2%. On Long Island, 16.7% of the people tested were positive and in Westchester and Rockland counties, 11.7% of the tests were positive.

New York City has had ~200,000 confirmed cases and ~16,000 confirmed deaths, which works out to about 16% of the total deaths in the US.

It's easy to feel like NY is a different world from many other parts of the nation -- those crowded sidewalks, the subways, the pockets of poverty, the uninsured.  And there are all kinds of reasons why the virus may have spread in NYC faster than elsewhere, and why mortality of the first wave NYC cases might be higher than later regsions', as equipment shortages are eased and treatment options expand.  That what has happened there won't happen in less densely populated places.

But if the goal is to get to ~70-80% across the full American population -- which is what "herd immunity" means -- then every location in the US has to "achieve" an incidence 4 times higher than NYC has thus far "achieved."  And if the plan is to get there sooner and "naturally" rather than ride out to better treatment and/or vaccine, then the cost (in lives, in LT downstream health complications, in medical bills for the so-called "mild case" hospitalizations, in personal and hospital bankruptcies, in medical providers falling ill themselves) of getting to 70-80% incidence will have to be, more or less, 4 times what NYC has endured. 

The virus operates on a per capita basis.  For your location to get to 70-80% incidence, the virus will have to infect about 4x as many people per capita as have been infected so far in NYC. 

Everywhere.  That "naturally occuring" herd immunity can only be achieved if that happens IN YOUR LOCATION.  The attendant costs must be incurred IN YOUR LOCATION.  That is simply the logic of herd immunity, that is how it's supposed to work, that is the only way it CAN work.  Immunity can't be outsourced to urban or distant places.

 

May those costs be delayed until treatment is better/ long term outcomes are better understood/ there is a vaccine.

(Which, just to address straw men before they stand up to squawk in protest, doesn't mean The Economy!! doesn't matter. The Economy!! will be battered no matter what, because dead people can't buy new cars any more than falling-down-sick people can pack our cheap meat or families staggering under "mild case" hospitalization bills can afford to go to Disney World.  This is a pandemic, and massive economic disruption is going to take place no matter what policies are adopted. All options are lousy.)

 

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Just now, TCB said:

Ours is said to be ok, and it is certainly better than it was at the start, but we still have to wear a basic surgical mask for 5 days before getting a new one. This is for wearing throughout our shift while we are around patients or other staff.  Before all this we would have worn that kind of mask for maybe up to an hour while we were in a patient's room and then discarded it.

I haven't heard details from our local hospital, but this is consistent with the experience of the healthcare worker in my family who works there.

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1 hour ago, Danae said:

Yep.

I wonder what things would look like if we hadn't shut down as much as we did so soon. As it is now lots of places have passed the maximum political tolerance for stay-at-home before the worst of their outbreaks even hit. But if we hadn't started stay-at-home when we did the worst would have hit sooner. Now, theoretically at least, we're more prepared.

A rolling shut-down would have been much better for compliance, but there's no way it would have worked without testing and tracking, and we managed to f' that up right at the beginning.  

For there to be so many issues with testing and so many shortages of PPE STILL at this point is absurd.   It's awful.   There's no reason it should be this way.

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48 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

But outside of the very specific context of a locked down retirement facility (where my 95 year old mom is also), everyone has been able to take walks, do puzzles and talk to friends. 

But some of those who are in a retirement facility, are finding this to be a miserable existence.  Rather than feeling protected, some are feeling that they are being prevented from living.   

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6 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

Most people are willing to do masking, social distancing and take precautions because I don't think anyone will willingly volunteer to get COVID unlike some brave people signing up for vaccine trials.

Unfortunately, it's become clear lately that MOST people are not willing to take precautions at all.   They want life back to "normal" immediately with no masks and no restrictions.   

Nobody is asking for a full lockdown.  Even the most hard hit areas never had a complete lockdown like was seen in some other countries.  Most of us are just arguing against opening up too fast. 

I"m fairly happy with how things are going here in NJ.    They open things up, give it a week or two to see how that goes, then open up something else.   The Jersey Shore is open, state parks are open, beaches and lakes are open.   If numbers continue to go down, we will continue to open up.  

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4 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

We are all responsible for our own mental attitudes. 

Yes, people are responsible for their own mental attitudes, but there is much more to the situation than that.  Gerontologists have been emphasizing how important it is for seniors to remain physically, mentally, and emotionally healthy.  Many of the things they have been told are important to their well-being, they are now being prevented from doing.  I think this is going to take a heavy toll on many seniors.  

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9 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Who in the world is suggesting total lockdown? Where did anyone say that? 

Social media. Anyone who wants to open up must be a (current President) supporter and therefore ret*****. Lots of name calling on social media. Some “vocal” people’s idea of shelter in place is that no one goes out for anything except for medical appointments because groceries can be ordered online. 

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As has been pointed out multiple times, the country is already opening up. Some are doing it more cautiously than others, but it is being done. 
 

People have already died. A lot of people. And yes more will die but the unfortunate truth is that many of those deaths will be because of arrogance because people think that this will happen to others but not to them. 

4 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

Yes, people are responsible for their own mental attitudes, but there is much more to the situation than that.  Gerontologists have been emphasizing how important it is for seniors to remain physically, mentally, and emotionally healthy.  Many of the things they have been told are important to their well-being, they are now being prevented from doing.  I think this is going to take a heavy toll on many seniors.  

And we all have a responsibility to the seniors we know. I just spent an hour on the phone with my mom. 

Edited by Jean in Newcastle
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5 hours ago, EmseB said:

My county is rural. Having more individualized management means that while we are on the governor's poopy list for increasing community spread, larger cities that are doing better per capita and with better hospital capacity aren't beholden to our lag in getting this thing.

My state is using a county by county approach. There is a list of metrics and counties had to apply and in the first round, 33 of 36 applied to enter phase I and 31 were approved. This week the remaining two were approved and one more applied and was approved. And we did not shut down as much as some other states. For example, we still allowed manufacturing and construction if social distancing and other safety measures could be maintained, and a pretty wide range of retail was allowed either in person and/or for curbside pick-up. Personally, I think they should be doing more requiring rather than just recommending of masking in certain situations. At least in counties like mine that are still seeing a significant increase in cases. In phase 1 they are only required for employees, not customers, in public facing businesses. The only time they are required in general is on public transit. Now of course businesses can make their own rules for customers.

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8 minutes ago, Where's Toto? said:

Unfortunately, it's become clear lately that MOST people are not willing to take precautions at all.   They want life back to "normal" immediately with no masks and no restrictions.   

Nobody is asking for a full lockdown.  Even the most hard hit areas never had a complete lockdown like was seen in some other countries.  Most of us are just arguing against opening up too fast. 

I"m fairly happy with how things are going here in NJ.    They open things up, give it a week or two to see how that goes, then open up something else.   The Jersey Shore is open, state parks are open, beaches and lakes are open.   If numbers continue to go down, we will continue to open up.  

My observations here in the land of the free (TX) would indicate otherwise, though I'm sure we'd all love to go back to the relatively carefree pre-Covid days.

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8 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Well, taking the midpoint of the interval, 70% infected would only change my numbers very little, especially since my numbers are almost certainly very conservative lower bounds to begin with. If there's a revolutionary treatment, that would make a big difference, though. 

I should have not used a qualitative ("drastically") metric. 30% fewer people makes what kind of difference, quantitatively?  Would you mind if we nerd-out and you share your calculations if 100% of the population gets it compared to 70%?  And the numbers when a good treatment is found is all speculative, right? Because if we find it soon, then how much of the population will have had it under current conditions compared to the numbers under the new conditions?  Right now, the CDC is reporting about 1,600,000/330,000,000 have been infected. If we can find a treatment soon, will the number even go over 1% under current conditions?  5%?  All of the numbers, 100%, 70%, 5%, and 1%, are all speculative, but I think the lower ones are most likely to be the ones we eventually land at, considering our ingenuity. Let's say 5% of the population gets it under current conditions; where does that put the calculations?  I would not bet that this is going to go through an overwhelming majority of the population under the current conditions. I would bet that we will get a handle on this by the time numbers reach low single-digits, making all of these estimates of 2,200,000 Americans dying a moot point. 

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2 hours ago, EmseB said:

CA has a PPE inventory on its state dashboard, but I really can't place the numbers into any sort of meaningful context.

One of the metrics each county in my state has to meet for reopening phases is adequate PPE for hospitals. I believe it is something like a two week supply. But then I read articles about some nurses and doctors at certain hospitals saying they now have to re-use masks since virtually all medical stuff opened up in the entire state on May 1. So I’m not sure there is a uniform definition of adequate being used across hospitals here. Thus I’m with you and not sure numbers on PPE are useful unless they come with adequate info to fully understand them. At least I know the situation locally because my husband works at the hospital.

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1 hour ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

But outside of the very specific context of a locked down retirement facility (where my 95 year old mom is also), everyone has been able to take walks, do puzzles and talk to friends. 

My mom moved into one just before this started and she is even allowed to take walks and talk to friends, both on the phone and in person with social distancing maintained and masks worn, preferably outside. The common areas are all closed, but people can walk throughout the building, outside, and in the parking garage. She said she’s gotten more exercise during the pandemic than she was ever able to get living at home because she has severe arthritis and uses a walker, and between snow, ice, heat, humidity, and very poorly maintained sidewalks, she was never able to get as much walking done as she desired. She has actually already made several new friends despite the restrictions, and they even leave treats for each other outside their doors. And so far, no one in any of their ten facilities state wide has been infected. She does say that a few residents grumble about the restrictions and not getting the social stuff they were promised (it’s a very new facility so almost everyone is a new resident), but that most are like her and fine with complying with all of the rules.

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19 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

I second this. I am in the land of the free too and what I am seeing is nothing irresponsible. Who are these people who are irresponsible ??? Everyone in my neighborhood is leaning towards paranoid sanitizing. We may die of bleach fumes than COVID 😂

Well, I am in Illinois, and we have the irresponsible people here. I went out 2x this week, and I've decided I'm going to wait this out far away from other people. I decided we had to drop co-op next year because members weren't social distancing at all during an end of school year pickup. There were over 20 in the church building, and I and 1 other lady were masked. No more than 10 at a time and masked indoors is the law in IL, and it's what the church requested they do as well. I was at Walmart taking a family member to cash a check this week, and I saw 4 people wearing masks into the store and then immediately taking them off when they passed the "gatekeeper". One other person at Walmart wore a Halloween mask with a breathing hole right over the mouth.:huh: 

My county had an almost 40% increase in cases this week. The county next to me was a steeper climb. 

Edited by beckyjo
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44 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

My state is one of those that opened. But they have a plan. Everyone I know is masking, gloving, paranoid sanitizing of amazon boxes and wiping groceries. Not enough traffic on the road even during rush hour. Curbside pickup, delivery of food where you do not meet the person. Even in so called reckless states that are opening up people are being careful regardless of government advice is my personal experience. 

Then you are very lucky. My state has a plan and the vast majority of counties have entered Phase 1 with some things being opened up statewide even before that and many things never shut down. But for the public, masking is only required on public transportation. Of course it is recommended and encouraged. But masking is not the norm many places here in businesses or when people gather in large numbers to protest or worship.

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There are irresponsible people everywhere and some who just don’t care.  When we went to Menard’s earlier today, we chose that store because they require masks. Several people today wore their masks past the guard but them slipped them off. It made me angry. We chose that store because of the mask policy and those who don’t wish to wear one could have went to either of the two other home improvement stores just down the freaking street. 

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47 minutes ago, Jean in Newcastle said:

 

 

48 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

When should you open up when states have different levels of COVID and hospitals and beds. New York cannot be a measure of the rest of the country nor can West Virginia which last I checked was the state with the least (I do not check other state levels frequently for my sanity so this could be incorrect current information). My state opened up but everyone I know is being responsible. Most are. No one wants this stupid virus but I would also sit outside and visit with a friend even if I have to wear a mask. I want to mask and go grocery shopping to support my local ethnic store so they will survive this and be around. I would love to find a way to safely cut my hair because I want my stylist who is a small business owner to be around and look nice too. I want to find a way to do that safely. But I want my favorite small businesses to survive too and for that we must open up slowly because not every business is deemed essential. 

I also don’t think anyone is arguing for a one size fits all across the entire country. Most people are talking about what is going on in their state and location, as that is what they have the most knowledge about. And yeah, everyone I know is being responsible, but that by no stretch of the imagination means everyone here is. And despite numbers that are continuing to increase, my county entered Phase I yesterday, so my stylist can now open. And if you’re worried about your stylist’s survival, you could pay them for any services you missed during the pandemic, if you are able. I plan to do so at my first appointment, and have already done so for our relatively new cleaning person.

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38 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

I second this. I am in the land of the free too and what I am seeing is nothing irresponsible. Who are these people who are irresponsible ??? Everyone in my neighborhood is leaning towards paranoid sanitizing. We may die of bleach fumes than COVID 😂

Have you not seen pictures in newspapers of crowds of people without masks and not social distancing? I’ve seen them both locally and nationally. While I haven’t been anywhere except my backyard and one quick trip to my worksite for an important item, my husband reports that during most of his errands, he is in the minority wearing a mask.

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14 minutes ago, Dreamergal said:

I don't go out much, but we drive a lot around randomly and even rush hour is nonexistent. We have curbside pick up even for little ethnic stores we frequent. My hair salon owner sold me the hair products I need to dye my hair and gave me instructions, no pressure about coming in person. We walk a lot ,everyone maintains distance. People cook in their backyards and live outside a lot. We smell food cooking, kids laughing, music, some families even have movies outside. Several families have bought sports equipment to play outside. We drop off food for neighbors on their porch and the do that. Today I got an indignant phone call from my neighbor who told me how her husband had to school our local pizza delivery place because even though the person wore mask and gloves and delivered pizza they did not leave it on the porch and go after ringing the doorbell and was actually there when they opened the door even after they paid over the phone including tips. This is how much people are being careful. Now my neighborhood is not the example I understand but just based on traffic alone I will say people are being responsible. I just do not see the "highly irresponsible" people being the majority. Most people are masking and gloving for their own safety first even in my state which is open I would say.

ETA: Pools are being open. 25% occupancy. No locker rooms. They will only be open on the weekends in my gym. My neighborhood pool is not open for the season.

Good, that’s wonderful for you, but no reason to doubt when people are reporting different things in other parts of the country. Although I think “highly irresponsible” is subjective, so I would tend to just stick to observable behaviors, e.g. concerning masks. And it certainly doesn’t need to be a majority not following to have a significant impact. 

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10 minutes ago, Heartwood said:

Yeah, atheism doesn't provide any hope for eternal life.

And, yes, they were tested.

 

Nor any unreasonable fear of being tortured forever, so there is that. I know not all Christians believe in Hell, but I find the idea profoundly immoral, no matter what the people there are supposed to have done.

Actually, you could be an atheist and still believe in some sort of afterlife. It's an odd position, to be sure, but atheism just means you don't believe in deities. You could believe in other supernatural entities or an afterlife and still honestly call yourself an atheist.

Edited by Tanaqui
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1 minute ago, Dreamergal said:

These are not the majority is what I am seeing. I don't see crowds because I do not grocery shop. We have grocery delivery but we do go out to ethnic stores, we have been to the nursery. My neighbors get food delivered, they have curbside pickup for stores that do not have a drivethru.  Masks are common here than not. Very patriotic masks made from flag material too. But pretty much everyone I know is masking. There will be exceptions always but I am going to err on people are being safe even in a state that is opening before anyone was ready. Regardless of blustery politician words people are doing what they will for their own safety is my take on it. 

It doesn’t have to be the majority for it to have an impact. I haven’t been out at all, but in addition to the pictures I see, my husband reports that he is the minority wearing a mask when doing errands. Now maybe it is due to the types of places he is going, primarily hardware, home improvement, and auto stores. We do grocery pick up and order everything possible online. Perhaps everyone is masking here at grocery stores, Walmart, Target, etc. But I wouldn’t presume to take what I know about here and say anything about another location, even within my state, unless I knew several people with first hand knowledge.

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9 minutes ago, Heartwood said:

Yeah, atheism doesn't provide any hope for eternal life.

And, yes, they were tested.

Some people don’t care about eternal life, they accept that death is just naturally part of life. And according to lots of believers, many other religions also don’t provide any hope for eternal life, just false promises.

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