What source(s) would you trust to assess the future stability of colleges or programs within those colleges?

[AEC]

There's articles around (and it makes tons of sense) describing how the COVID situation will accelerate the carnage of colleges and programs within those colleges. I'm trying to peer at least a bit down the road and estimate the likely stability of choices DS is making about where to go to school. I've seen endowment #s from 2ish years ago.  I wonder if that's really the best thing to look at?

[regentrude]

For programs, I would look at the number of graduates per year in the major. If colleges cut programs, those will be the ones that have few graduates each year and don't bring in a lot of revenue. 

[daijobu]

I'm not sure how helpful, reliable, or accurate this is, but Forbes does publish a financial assessment of colleges and universities.  Here's one from 2019:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/schifrin/2019/11/27/dawn-of-the-dead-for-hundreds-of-the-nations-private-colleges-its-merge-or-perish/#506253cd770d

It will certainly be interesting to compare this to 2020.

And because I'm a geek, I put it into a spreadsheet so I could sort by letter grade.

[JanetC]

So, if you really want to make sure that a school will be around - use your state university system! There may be cuts, but they won't close 'em completely. Even if they shuttered an underused campus, it's easier to transfer credits within the same state university system than between private colleges.

As far as private colleges go, kids can tell when a college they chose actually stinks -- if the freshman retention rate is terrible, or enrollment has dropped significantly even before this event, don't go there.

[G5052]

Yes, look at the number of graduates. I work for a large, multi-campus community college within a large state system of colleges. Even being a state school, they are already looking at the numbers and relevance of certain certificates and degree programs. I taught a class in the fall in a certificate that is on the chopping block.

[Bootsie]

11 hours ago, regentrude said:

For programs, I would look at the number of graduates per year in the major. If colleges cut programs, those will be the ones that have few graduates each year and don't bring in a lot of revenue. 

I would look not only at the number of graduates in a major, but the cost of educating those students.  A university may keep a major like Women and Gender Studies with a few graduates, because the major is designed where there is not really any additional cost; the students are taking courses across departments that would be offered anyway--a literature course, an art course, an economics course, etc.   Majors in which the salaries to faculty are high or other programmatic costs are high can be at risk even if there are a number of graduates.

[Bootsie]

12 hours ago, AEC said:

There's articles around (and it makes tons of sense) describing how the COVID situation will accelerate the carnage of colleges and programs within those colleges. I'm trying to peer at least a bit down the road and estimate the likely stability of choices DS is making about where to go to school. I've seen endowment #s from 2ish years ago.  I wonder if that's really the best thing to look at?

Some depends on how the endowment was invested, some endowment values have changed significantly given recent market events.  I would look not only at endowment levels but also at the percent of the budget that is tuition driven.  Schools that depend heavily on tuition as part of their budget are watching fall registration numbers closely.

[Bristayl]

16 hours ago, Bootsie said:

  I would look not only at endowment levels but also at the percent of the budget that is tuition driven.  Schools that depend heavily on tuition as part of their budget are watching fall registration numbers closely.

 

Do you have suggestions as to how to find out how much of a college's budget is tuition? I tried to look it up for a college of interest but couldn't find it easily.

[Bootsie]

5 hours ago, Bristayl said:

 

Do you have suggestions as to how to find out how much of a college's budget is tuition? I tried to look it up for a college of interest but couldn't find it easily.

i don't know of one single source.  I think you can find the information in the IPEDS database.  I think it would be easier to search for a particular university.  I would try searching for "sources of revenue university name" or look for an annual report for the university which contains its financial statements.  

[Lanny]

All of the above responses are IMO accurate. In addition, I would watch out for universities that have a large percentage of International Students. Many of those International Students, if they return to their Passport country, at this time, would not be able to return to the USA, under the current Covid-19 regulations of the CDC. I believe this applies to people arriving from China, Iran, many countries in Europe, etc.  (My DD is an Overseas American and has  a lot in common with International Students and she cannot come home in May 2020 because Colombia is not permitting International flights until June 2020)

I believe there are some universities in the USA where they have thousands of International students, Undergraduates and Graduate students, and are dependent, financially, upon them. Without them, would those schools close?

OT: I read an article about International Students in Australian universities.  They are Australia's 3rd largest source of Export income, after two mining exports.

[Crimson Wife]

Just now, Lanny said:

 I believe there are some universities in the USA where they have thousands of International students, Undergraduates and Graduate students, and are dependent, financially, upon them. Without them, would those schools close?

Depends on how easily the college could find American students to replace the foreign ones. At UC Berkeley they make up 16.2% of its students and at UCLA they make up 15.8%. Both those schools could easily replace the foreign students with Americans by pulling from waitlists.

[Bristayl]

13 hours ago, Bootsie said:

 I would try searching for "sources of revenue university name" or look for an annual report for the university which contains its financial statements.  

 

That worked, thank you!

[Lanny]

13 hours ago, Crimson Wife said:

Depends on how easily the college could find American students to replace the foreign ones. At UC Berkeley they make up 16.2% of its students and at UCLA they make up 15.8%. Both those schools could easily replace the foreign students with Americans by pulling from waitlists.

 

Yes. But my understanding is that most International Students pay the full price (discounts probably available?) and if the UC schools need to replace them with in-state students, they will have less revenue coming in?  And more Financial Aid is available to U.S. Citizens and Green Card holders from the schools and from the U.S. Government.

[regentrude]

13 hours ago, Crimson Wife said:

Depends on how easily the college could find American students to replace the foreign ones. At UC Berkeley they make up 16.2% of its students and at UCLA they make up 15.8%. Both those schools could easily replace the foreign students with Americans by pulling from waitlists.

But would those be students paying the same high cost as International students?

 

[lewelma]

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Edited April 27, 2020 by lewelma