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What do you think? How long will it go on?


Teaching3bears
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Here, things are closed until early April and they are asking people to distance.  More and more businesses are closing.  Every day there are new rules, recommendations and closures.  I agree that it’s good to stop the spread.  I think people are thinking that if schools etc. are closed for a few weeks then kids will go back after that but in a few weeks, numbers will have gone up and it will seem even riskier to reopen things.  Still, this life is not sustainable for so many people.  
What do you think might happen once we get to mid-April? 
I know nobody really knows but it would make it easier to plan life if we did.

 

 

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All the directives are until May 1. I expect schools to be out the rest of the year.

 

I have heard John Hopkins is recommending cancelling all conferences, etc until next Fall... I'm still biding my time for the AHG convention I plan to go to to in July -- I don't know if I'll be comfortable flying or not. We'llsee

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I expect schools to be shuttered through the end of the school year and reopen in September (in my area). I expect DD will be fine academically as her teachers have left up their existing course frameworks for the entire semester including video lectures (one teacher always had them there for absent kids).  Summer schooling for us will be as it always was...intense and home-based. DS's workload, thus far, is insufficient so I will be working with him more closely through the end of the year, incorporating all of the homeschooling materials and plans I used with DD.

I expect movement restrictions in the hardest hit areas will last through the early fall as well. Schools in those areas may remain closed too. I do not foresee a massive rise in violence.

Medically, I think things will be very overwhelming in April and May. I don't think we'll see a tapering off until June and July.

I think our society will be forever changed by this. There WILL be a massive push for universal health care and possibly basic income (even if it's only temporary). When people like Tom Cotton and Mitt Romney join hands on that, you know there's a sea change. Southern states with poorer hourly workers, fewer worker protections, and no unions may be especially hard-pressed when the recovery begins.

Edited by Sneezyone
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5 minutes ago, Terabith said:

Honestly, I expect this to go on for about a year.

I'm thinking we will have a "new normal" sometime in the fall. It won't be like life was in January.

Everything else I think is depressing & dark, so I'm just going to stop there.

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My most optimistic estimate is that a vaccine will go into mainstream mass production (they just started the phase 1 testing on humans a couple of days ago) by January of 2021. After that, they need to deliver it to almost 300+ million americans (it will be part of the flu shot for the next year, probably).

We can be optimistic and expect some of the aspects of our daily lives to go back to normal at around this time next year. From all the news and data that I have processed on this virus, that is the best guess that I can come up with.

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I personally be shocked if life was even close to resuming before June. If I had to put money on it, I'd say maybe in August we'll be out and about again in a semi-normal scale. I would not be shocked if it was longer - maybe even as long as it takes to get the vaccine. And I suspect that will happen in about a year.

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Barring a miracle, until a vaccine is widely available.

 

And to some extent, it may never be the same.  Parents will discover they like their kids and keep them home.  Employees will discover there are many reasons to enjoy working from home. People will be suspicious of crowds.

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DS's company has yet to send him home (they do food nutritional testing).  I've already told the kids I expect at least 8 weeks from when work places (nonessential ones like DS's) send everyone home.  So at this point I'm expecting at least 10 weeks of full on stay at home and then we might see some slight release in restrictions but all in all, I'm not expecting much until fall.

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I think people won’t stay in full quarantine even a week here in the states. It’s a completely different thing than in Europe, it’s astounding. The grocery store was full of old people this morning.

i think people will be back to “normal” in 2 weeks. Because if not, everyone will be bankrupt. Our economy is based on spending and there’s no safety net, and I don’t think people can deal with half the country not making rent or defaulting on mortgages. Here, it’s not the disease that kills you...

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I expect schools to be out the rest of the school year. 

I think because the vast majority of people refuse to listen to recommendations it will drag on for months. 

It is all a big guessing game, with so many variables, we will see.

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We are in Israel right now and I think there is a decent shot that things here -- including schools -- will start to gradually reopen in mid-April .  We'll know more at the end of this week.  OTOH, I think that the border restrictions are going to be in place for a long, long time, despite the dire economic consequences.

I have no idea what's going to happen in the US.  We are supposed to return in late July and I keep wondering what we are going to be coming back to.

I agree with whoever said that there will be a new normal.  I myself am not making any nonrefundable plans for next fall or winter.

 

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My oldest is a senior in high school, and we just talked at lunch today about whether her high school will go ahead with prom or an in-person graduation ceremony. I mostly just asked my girls what they thought, but truth be told it will surprise me if they have in-person graduations. My guess is we'll be coming down from the peak in early June, but still in the midst of crisis. 

And with so many colleges and universities calling off commencement this spring, what's going to happen in the fall? Are colleges going to want to take the risk of having thousands of students return to campuses from all over the world, even if we're well past the peak by mid-August? One thing that could really shift the outlook is if there are major advancements in treatment of COVID-19, so the contagiousness isn't such a public health disaster.

I've never experienced so many unknowns in my life, and I really feel for our teens, coming of age in the midst of this. 

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Our PCM's office called me to schedule well visits for some of my kids and they are about six weeks out. I was asking what I should expect about any precautions they are taking to ensure well kids don't get sick from all this (which, honestly, I'm paranoid about during flu season anyway). She explained what they are doing and then said, "But your appointment is like 6 weeks from now, we'll probably be done with this stuff by then." I think I said a glib, "I hope so," but I think in 6 weeks we'll be seeing the peak-ish and definitely not the end.

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50 minutes ago, Acadie said:

My oldest is a senior in high school, and we just talked at lunch today about whether her high school will go ahead with prom or an in-person graduation ceremony. I mostly just asked my girls what they thought, but truth be told it will surprise me if they have in-person graduations. My guess is we'll be coming down from the peak in early June, but still in the midst of crisis. 

And with so many colleges and universities calling off commencement this spring, what's going to happen in the fall? Are colleges going to want to take the risk of having thousands of students return to campuses from all over the world, even if we're well past the peak by mid-August? One thing that could really shift the outlook is if there are major advancements in treatment of COVID-19, so the contagiousness isn't such a public health disaster.

I've never experienced so many unknowns in my life, and I really feel for our teens, coming of age in the midst of this. 

Mines a junior and I feel the same. The uncertainties in such an already uncertain time in their lives must be overwhelming. 😞

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1 hour ago, EmseB said:

Our PCM's office called me to schedule well visits for some of my kids and they are about six weeks out. I was asking what I should expect about any precautions they are taking to ensure well kids don't get sick from all this (which, honestly, I'm paranoid about during flu season anyway). She explained what they are doing and then said, "But your appointment is like 6 weeks from now, we'll probably be done with this stuff by then." I think I said a glib, "I hope so," but I think in 6 weeks we'll be seeing the peak-ish and definitely not the end.

One of the money-minded persons I have to deal with called me and asked for a deposit for an event to happen in May. I told her that since my county is in a lockdown and we are sheltering in place, there was no point in paying for a public event that she cannot even organize at this point because what she offers is entertainment and not essential services. She nonchalantly told me that shelter-at-home order is only for 3 weeks and that she will get the whole venue booked and event arranged after that! I think that I said a glib "I hope you do", just like you did! I am not even willing to send my child to a crowded event in May even if the public health authorities miraculously told us that the situation is under control by then.

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1 hour ago, Acadie said:

My oldest is a senior in high school, and we just talked at lunch today about whether her high school will go ahead with prom or an in-person graduation ceremony. I mostly just asked my girls what they thought, but truth be told it will surprise me if they have in-person graduations. My guess is we'll be coming down from the peak in early June, but still in the midst of crisis. 

And with so many colleges and universities calling off commencement this spring, what's going to happen in the fall? Are colleges going to want to take the risk of having thousands of students return to campuses from all over the world, even if we're well past the peak by mid-August? One thing that could really shift the outlook is if there are major advancements in treatment of COVID-19, so the contagiousness isn't such a public health disaster.

I've never experienced so many unknowns in my life, and I really feel for our teens, coming of age in the midst of this. 

 

My youngest is a senior in high school and we're having all of these thoughts as well.  Such a hard time for so many students with all the disruptions, uncertainty, and disappointments.  For us as parents, too.  😞

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1 hour ago, Acadie said:

My oldest is a senior in high school, and we just talked at lunch today about whether her high school will go ahead with prom or an in-person graduation ceremony. I mostly just asked my girls what they thought, but truth be told it will surprise me if they have in-person graduations. My guess is we'll be coming down from the peak in early June, but still in the midst of crisis. 

And with so many colleges and universities calling off commencement this spring, what's going to happen in the fall? Are colleges going to want to take the risk of having thousands of students return to campuses from all over the world, even if we're well past the peak by mid-August? One thing that could really shift the outlook is if there are major advancements in treatment of COVID-19, so the contagiousness isn't such a public health disaster.

I've never experienced so many unknowns in my life, and I really feel for our teens, coming of age in the midst of this. 

Our district said that we have to have no new cases for 2 weeks in our county in order for prom to happen. I don’t think prom is happening. 

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I thought most estimates put the peak at June/July? 

I don't think anything is going to change as long as the number of cases and number of deaths continues to rise.  I think once the numbers start to go down, people will push to reopen businesses and get life "back to normal".  I'm slightly worried that will happen too soon and we'll see a resurgence of cases.  

I don't think schools will reopen this school year.  I'm thinking September at the soonest.  
I'm hoping this leads to some more safety nets and more options for people but I don't know if I'm that optimistic. 

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5 hours ago, Teaching3bears said:

Here, things are closed until early April and they are asking people to distance.  More and more businesses are closing.  Every day there are new rules, recommendations and closures.  I agree that it’s good to stop the spread.  I think people are thinking that if schools etc. are closed for a few weeks then kids will go back after that but in a few weeks, numbers will have gone up and it will seem even riskier to reopen things.  Still, this life is not sustainable for so many people.  
What do you think might happen once we get to mid-April? 
I know nobody really knows but it would make it easier to plan life if we did.

 

 

I think any school year type stuff will be shut down for the school year. I think anything that can be moved to online will be moved to online, like food ordering, etc.  I am betting things don't start opening up again until June. Maybe at Memorial Day, people will start emerging in the parks again, but I think the next time we see any public event will be July 4.

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I think we will get it under control. This isn’t the first or the last outbreak. SARS was effectively dealt with.

I think we will see life resuming to normal by summer. I don’t think schools will reopen this year, but who knows. I think this lockdown will flatten the curve of the infection and better testing will help us target outbreak areas better.

Humans have an incredible capacity to forget. We will be back. 
 

and yes, we can’t afford to not work. Maybe wearing masks will be a new normal until the vaccine, but people need to work if we don’t want millions living under the bridge.

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I think this country needs to move to having a set up more like countries who are much more successfully dealt with this.  Free on demand testing with fast results.  Travel lock downs when necessary, airport screening, etc.  The poor response and preparedness in the US is really unbelievable. It's been like watching a slow moving car crash where there was time to minimize damage but it was completely ignored.  I absolutely think this has been circulating a while.    

I don't think the whole country can be shut down for a year.  I also don't think we should underplay how isolating the entire population for many months would hurt mental health.  I have had minimal social contacts for many weeks and we've been entirely locked down for a number of days at our house.  So I support current efforts to get this under control.   I hope we may have a new normal that appears over several months.  And that science catches up sooner rather than later.   

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7 hours ago, madteaparty said:

I think people won’t stay in full quarantine even a week here in the states. It’s a completely different thing than in Europe, it’s astounding. The grocery store was full of old people this morning.

i think people will be back to “normal” in 2 weeks. Because if not, everyone will be bankrupt. Our economy is based on spending and there’s no safety net, and I don’t think people can deal with half the country not making rent or defaulting on mortgages. Here, it’s not the disease that kills you...

There is absolutely nothing to do in our state at this point. Restaurants are only allowed to do take out, there is hardly any food or paper products to buy in stores, and anyplace that normally has more than 20 people in it is shut down. I don't know what the government thinks is going to happen long term, but this is certainly not sustainable. 

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36 minutes ago, hippiemamato3 said:

There is absolutely nothing to do in our state at this point. Restaurants are only allowed to do take out, there is hardly any food or paper products to buy in stores, and anyplace that normally has more than 20 people in it is shut down. I don't know what the government thinks is going to happen long term, but this is certainly not sustainable. 

Our stores, as of this morning are full. Aldi had a better than normal organic produce on offer. I was only unable to get two things: TP for my neighbor and ginger for me. The later made me start to freak out 😂😂

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My six year old and I were just talking about this. I told him that it was going to take a long time for things to get normal. I used family birthdays to give him a topic idea, but my guess is it will be crazy at the end of April, still weird in June, getting towards calm in September, and probably normal in December. I was optimistic that everyone would start home and flatten the curve, but talking to a neighbor discouraged me. He was shocked that the nursing home had refused to let him in to see his mom. Until then, he'd just vaguely heard there was a virus going around but had no idea it's serious. Another friend and I were going to get together to hike this week, so I was telling her that I would prep the kids that they could talk but needed to honor social distancing. She hadn't even heard that term, which made me not want to meet up because if her kids didn't understand why mine were staying back and not giving hugs, there could be problems. Now, she's symptomatic, though her Dr didn't have tests and just told her to assume she has it. I hope she understands now and is quarantining, but in the days before she had been in several crowded places, and she and her husband both ran cashier's tills over the weekend. 

Still most people are staying home, and so there's room to hope.

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By go on do you mean extreme measures of lockdown or the overall

For WuhAn the hardest hit they have been in lockdown measures since the end of Jan - over six weeks.  They are just now relaxing those somewhat but they seem to open some areas then close them again.  For the rest of China people began going back to work after four weeks but limited capacity and streets are still fairly empty.  Only one region has reopened schools.  Because we are dawdling around and allowing outbreaks to get off the ground we may be in it for longer.  However I don’t think we have any regions with the level of spread WuhAn experienced yet.  They let it build for almost eight weeks before locking things down.  They are reopening sections of tourist attractions but not the whole areas.
 

I think essential services will go on regardless but it might be that cafes restaurants etc will be closed much longer. Conservatively end of May.  But I believe it will be different for different regions.  And given how close schools are going to be to summer break some may decide not to reopen till afterwards.  
 

In terms of recommending international travel it could be much much longer.  Likewise for rebooting the economy.

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I have one kid graduating high school and one graduating college this year.  Luckily they were both homeschooled and uniquely prepared for a quirky life.  I don't think we'll mourn the rituals like some families.  Dd had already decided to skip the giant commencement at her university and was only going to attend her degree-specific ceremonies.  I would have loved to see her graduate, but as a person who skipped my own college graduation ceremonies, they're just not as big a deal to us as other people.  I think Dh and I attended so many mandatory military to-dos that we like the freedom to skip optional stuff.  Homeschool graduations are much more fun and personal, but I think the weight of planning that has lifted and I cared more than DS did.  Maybe we'll just have a big party at home to celebrate when life is normal again.

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On 3/17/2020 at 1:33 PM, happysmileylady said:

I will say however, that I think that American school children are going to lose the rest of the school year in terms of education.  They might get to go back.  They might not.  But I think that even if they go back, the entire rest of the year will be so unsettled.  I think kids will need so much re-teaching and schools will be scrambling to figure out what if any testing is necessary, administrations will be trying to figure out about extending the year or not, there will be quite a bit of chaos in the schools.  So even if kids go back, I think school not going to be useful for most kids for the rest of the year.  

 

We have already been told to highly anticipate being out the rest of the year.  Kansas has already declared it.  Other states will be following.  Our state (NC) has already waved all tests.  Online instruction for our district has not started yet.  This is my first day home, Mon and Tue were at school.

Not sure what my own son's AP class will do as far as testing.

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4 minutes ago, DawnM said:

 

We have already been told to highly anticipate being out the rest of the year.  Kansas has already declared it.  Other states will be following.  Our state (NC) has already waved all tests.  Online instruction for our district has not started yet.  This is my first day home, Mon and Tue were at school.

Not sure what my own son's AP class will do as far as testing.

Maine teachers just got an update from the Maine DOE saying that the CDC is now recommending 8-20 weeks of school closure. I couldn't find the same thing on the CDC's page, but I wouldn't be surprised.

Teaching from home... stinks! It's a ton of work and also really boring at the same time. So much staring at screens. I didn't realize how much I depended on "getting out" at least once a day when I'm home... I usually just go to a shop or run an errand on a weekend day, even if I don't have to, just to GET OUT! *Sniff*

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13 minutes ago, Mainer said:

Maine teachers just got an update from the Maine DOE saying that the CDC is now recommending 8-20 weeks of school closure. I couldn't find the same thing on the CDC's page, but I wouldn't be surprised.

Teaching from home... stinks! It's a ton of work and also really boring at the same time. So much staring at screens. I didn't realize how much I depended on "getting out" at least once a day when I'm home... I usually just go to a shop or run an errand on a weekend day, even if I don't have to, just to GET OUT! *Sniff*

Thanks. I just checked email and the letter from our superintendent indicates we will be closed until at least the end of April. 
 

At least we are having an unprecedented early spring! Our favorite local park was full beyond capacity when we tried to go (we went somewhere else). I’m even starting to think about starting some seeds in our shed/greenhouse! Unreal for March...

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On 3/17/2020 at 2:08 PM, Katy said:

Barring a miracle, until a vaccine is widely available.

 

 

This. Between the papers done by epidemiologists, and the infections disease specialist I heard today on NPR, there will be no answer we are willing to accept other than wait for a vaccine. Basically, we can loosen up now, let millions die, and it will stop fairly quickly after that as immunity happens. Not really acceptable. Or we can stay like this until a vaccine, barely acceptable maybe. or we can get way more tests, and ease up restrictions when ICU beds open up, then implement them again when they get full, on a rolling basis, which may be what actually happens. 

Also, the infectious disease specialist speaking today told us that yes, it may slow down here in the summer, but it will be likely travling the southern hemisphere then, and then return here in the fall all over again. 

20 hours ago, Roadrunner said:

I think we will get it under control. This isn’t the first or the last outbreak. SARS was effectively dealt with.

 

Sars was nowhere near as contagious. 

And sure, eventually we will, but we have a pretty bad track record of doing it quickly. Look at HIV - that took decades. 

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Millions will starve if quarantines continue for more than couple of months. Unlike Europe, we have no real safety net. 
 

Also mortality rates in South Korea are under 1%. So hoping, really hoping we slow this thing down and then somehow manage the more stable rate of infection. 

Edited by Roadrunner
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14 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Millions will starve if quarantines continue for more than couple of months. Unlike Europe, we have no real safety net. 
 

Also mortality rates in South Korea are under 1%. So hoping, really hoping we slow this thing down and then somehow manage the more stable rate of infection. 

Though I am pessimistic about this pandemic and how it will be handled, the one thing that I have a positive outlook on is the food safety of Americans and the supply of food being uninterrupted and that millions will not starve and will be handed food if it had to come to that. We have plenty of food in this country.

South Korea made a drastic effort to control the problem and extensively tested at the early stage because they did not take this virus as a joke nor were they in denial that it could cause harm to their nation. They learned their lessons from SARS and applied it to C-19 which is far more contagious than SARS. Another excellent case study these days for epidemiologists is Taiwan. They clamped down so hard on their infection rates that even though there were over 5 million Chinese citizens coming into their country in the infection timeframe, they handled it masterfully. The taiwanese also learned a hard lesson from SARS and the other older flus. America does not have that paranoid of an attitude and there are tons of people still actively socializing and the government is finally realizing the magnitude of the problem. So, comparing the mortality rates in SK to that of the US (or Italy) is like comparing apples to oranges.

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4 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

Though I am pessimistic about this pandemic and how it will be handled, the one thing that I have a positive outlook on is the food safety of Americans and the supply of food being uninterrupted and that millions will not starve and will be handed food if it had to come to that. We have plenty of food in this country.

South Korea made a drastic effort to control the problem and extensively tested at the early stage because they did not take this virus as a joke nor were they in denial that it could cause harm to their nation. They learned their lessons from SARS and applied it to C-19 which is far more contagious than SARS. Another excellent case study these days for epidemiologists is Taiwan. They clamped down so hard on their infection rates that even though there were over 5 million Chinese citizens coming into their country in the infection timeframe, they handled it masterfully. The taiwanese also learned a hard lesson from SARS and the other older flus. America does not have that paranoid of an attitude and there are tons of people still actively socializing and the government is finally realizing the magnitude of the problem. So, comparing the mortality rates in SK to that of the US (or Italy) is like comparing apples to oranges.


If people don’t have income, full shelves in supermarkets aren’t going to help. I think all the people working privileged jobs (tech sector in Silicon Valley for example), or government jobs or even just plain “professional” jobs he lost the perspective of millions who live paycheck to paycheck and those paychecks are quickly disappearing as restaurants and hotels close. It’s not the lack of food, it’s lack of income that’s going to kill people. And the $1k in people’s pocket isn’t going to pay rent, utilities and feed them. 

Edited by Roadrunner
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13 minutes ago, mathnerd said:

Though I am pessimistic about this pandemic and how it will be handled, the one thing that I have a positive outlook on is the food safety of Americans and the supply of food being uninterrupted and that millions will not starve and will be handed food if it had to come to that. We have plenty of food in this country.

 

How are people supposed to pay for it? Who is going to hand out the food? I have zero faith that's how it will work.

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Just now, Roadrunner said:


If people don’t have income, full shelves in supermarkets aren’t going to help. I think all the people working privileged jobs (tech sector in Silicon Valley for example), or government jobs or even just plain “professional” jobs he lost the perspective of millions who live paycheck to paycheck and those paychecks are quickly disappearing as restaurants and hotels close. It’s not the lack of food, it’s lack of income that’s going to kill people.

I agree with you that a lack of income is as terrible as a lack of food. But, I am confident that people will eat. The government will deploy the army to drop off food if they have to. I am not sure about the economy collapsing, real estate market crashing, stock market crashing, healthcare system collapsing, the millions of kids who will not be educated etc because I am not an expert in those things and can only watch it all as if it is horror movie happening in front of me. My next door house was rented by a lady who provided a home based infant daycare to several women who worked in those privileged jobs in a name-brand silicon valley company. She got several other qualified and trained women to work for her and take care of those babies to maintain high quality and the ratio of carer:baby. Yesterday, it shut down because all the women engineers who were her customers were asked to shelter in place and not go to work and the health officers deemed her business as "non-essential" she laid off all her employees. I know several older ladies who are music teachers who are already scrambling to pay their rents due to canceled lessons and are terrified about losing the roof over their heads in their old age 😞 There is going to be a huge hit to the common man, I am sure.

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1 minute ago, hippiemamato3 said:

How are people supposed to pay for it? Who is going to hand out the food? I have zero faith that's how it will work.

In 3rd world countries, the army is deployed to drop off food, water and medicine (free) during times of dire emergencies so that people do not die.

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3 minutes ago, hippiemamato3 said:

I don't see that happening here, but we'll see I guess.

I have hopes that a Superpower and Leader of the Free World is as good as, if not better than a 3rd world country when it comes to protecting their citizens 🤔

Edited by mathnerd
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