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Covid-19 Discussion, arguments (please be nice 👍 ) thread

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1 hour ago, LarlaB said:


Some people do not have the luxury of hunkering down.....More people than the financially comfortable people would like to acknowledge.   I’m so frustrated by those who can stockpile and who aren’t working or who can work from home just assume that everyone else is like them. 

 

My neighbor was complaining to me and probably to everyone else that her child’s school should provide online school during school time just like the private schools. She meant her child would login to online classes taught in real time by his class teachers just like her child’s normal school schedule. 

Her answer to kids on free lunch program not getting their lunches when school is closed was that somehow they will be fed. Kids without internet access is also not her consideration as long as her kid has online school. 

I gave up explaining to her that when her child needs to see his doctor, she might have to wait a long time for an appointment because the healthcare workers has no childcare and their kids are in elementary schools. If little children might carry the virus, healthcare workers might not want to risk their parents health to babysit. They also might not want to ask a babysitter to babysit if the babysitter already has a lot of children under her care. 

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2 hours ago, EKS said:

Why can't you post in this thread?  Or make your own thread?

If you're interested in my opinion, I think that this situation is really going to exacerbate the difference between classes.  In fact, I read something today where the author pointed out that the whole idea of social distancing was regressive (https://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2020/03/panic-and-coronavirus-is-there-is.html), and it's true and sad and awful.

 

Yeah, I see that. However, I'm not feeling super patient with this article. First of all, the comparison with the flu is deceptive, because the number of people getting the flu is much higher. It's ridiculous to compare totals as opposed to mortality rates. Our best estimates of mortality rates come from Korea (where they are probably oversampling the healthiest people and not overwhelming the healthcare apparatus!), and the mortality rates are 10 times that of the flu. So the idea that we have NO IDEA what the mortality rates and that there are probably tons and tons of people walking around who have it who we aren't counting seems naive. 

Secondly, how in the world do you quarantine every single person who's at risk? Lots of 60+ year olds live with their kids or with other people. Are we going to provide extra space for every single person in an intergenerational household? How? What about people with preexisting conditions? 

Thirdly, I like this idea that we're about to have millions of tests available. When we actually have these millions of tests and start using them, maybe we can discuss. Right now, we're literally three orders of magnitude below that. Even South Korea is still an order of magnitude below that. And, by the way, South Korea did close the schools. They didn't try randomized testing without social distancing. 

I absolutely see the issue with social distancing. It really is regressive. However, the answer to that seems to be providing emergency childcare for people who can't do without, unemployment policies, interest-free loans to struggling entities, etc, not solutions that don't actually seem feasible given what we currently have. 

 

Edited by square_25
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On the other hand another neighbor is seeing how she can after school her child while school is out for 3 weeks. So we were discussing free options like Coursera, Khan Academy, MOOCs and some paid online courses. 

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26 minutes ago, square_25 said:

No, I mean helps in terms of public health. What does everyone doing so look like? How does it change the numbers? 

My personal sense is that everyone should from as small a cluster as they can manage, not that they should cut down their socializing by a certain percentage. But I'd love to see someone run sophisticated simulations for this. 

It comes down to how much contact one has with an infected person. The models are being run, thats how they came up with banning large groups...statistically higher chance of there being an infected person in the group.

Me, I'm in an area with infected people.  I have lowered risk by not being in contact with people who were closer to the infected people. The percent social reduction is immaterial..its the percent of infected reduction that is meaningful...and that isn't just how many, its how much contact time.  I skip the library because people cough without covering.  Doesn't matter if I miss socializing with the twelve I normally socialize with there or not, its the infected one that walks in and coughs all over us for ten minutes or an hour. 

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5 minutes ago, HeighHo said:

It comes down to how much contact one has with an infected person. The models are being run, thats how they came up with banning large groups...statistically higher chance of there being an infected person in the group.

Me, I'm in an area with infected people.  I have lowered risk by not being in contact with people who were closer to the infected people. The percent social reduction is immaterial..its the percent of infected reduction that is meaningful...and that isn't just how many, its how much contact time.  I skip the library because people cough without covering.  Doesn't matter if I miss socializing with the twelve I normally socialize with there or not, its the infected one that walks in and coughs all over us for ten minutes or an hour. 

The problem is that it looks like asymptomatic people spread the virus. So we don't know who the infected people are. We're kind of flying blind over here. You can get it from someone who looks totally healthy. Or maybe from someone who just thinks they have a normal cold. 

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3 hours ago, Pen said:

 

How much should people socialize?

Go places?  (Where? What circumstances?)

Stay home?

Play dates?

Recreational travel?

Teens socializing?

Related question: Do school closures help?

 

I think this all depends on your context. I'm in the Bay area and we're seeing increasing community transmission.

Socialize? Whatever the minimum they need to stay mentally healthy

Go places? As little as possible unless it's outdoors

Stay home? I don't think people must stay home but they do need to avoid crowds. They easiest way to do that is to stay home.

Play dates? My kids are teens and we are still allowing them to get together with friends in small scale

Recreational travel? This really depends on context. If you want to drive to the coast, rent an airbnb, and sit on the beach all day, that sounds wonderful. If you want to take a plane to NY and see all the sights, that sounds like a bad plan.

Teens? See above. No mall trips but I'm fine with them going to a friend's house.

Schools? Absolutely. How can it not help to not put 1500 kids together in the same building?

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13 minutes ago, square_25 said:

The problem is that it looks like asymptomatic people spread the virus. So we don't know who the infected people are. We're kind of flying blind over here. You can get it from someone who looks totally healthy. Or maybe from someone who just thinks they have a normal cold. 

 

That’s clearly a very significant part of the problem and a good bit of why SARS2 presents such a more huge pandemic problem than SARS1. 

So while it is true as @HeighHo said that it’s contact with an infected person that matters, we largely can only reduce contact with infected people by reducing contact with people generally. 

In addition, contact tracing really only could have any chance at all at this point by greatly limiting contact group sizes for most people.  

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I am in a weird situation because I would LOVE to have no contact with anyone. I would have loved to quarantine ourselves since about January, tbh, because of flu and a new baby.

But we live in a small neighborhood and if you just count the four houses in my "quad" there are 16 kids, all but one is old enough to play outside. These kids are all now out of school for at least a month. They are all outside playing. I'm the only one apparently having this internal battle of should they be playing together. My doorbell is going to ring more now and we'll have more contact with these kids because they aren't gone to school and activities all day. Unless I ban my kids from playing with them and THAT is going to go over like a lead balloon with my kids and the neighbor kids. The social pressure I feel is already enormous because we are the only homeschoolers. And my kids would have to stay inside all the time because everyone else is outside. They were playing baseball today which I was okay with because there was a lot of distance between kids and my kids have gotten amazing about handwashing every time they come inside because I am a harpy harper about for the last 6 months, but still.

I am instituting a no more neighbors on the trampoline rule, which hasn't happened lately anyway. I might make a riding bikes outside only rule for my kids because it seems like that would give the appropriate distancing. But when all the other neighborhood kids start a pick up basketball game and beg your kids to to play??? And you're the mean mom telling them they can't and no other parents find it problematic? Ugh.

I kind of pictured schools closing and parents and kids waving hello and shouting at each other over back fences. Not what's happening here.

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1 minute ago, EmseB said:

I am in a weird situation because I would LOVE to have no contact with anyone. I would have loved to quarantine ourselves since about January, tbh, because of flu and a new baby.

But we live in a small neighborhood and if you just count the four houses in my "quad" there are 16 kids, all but one is old enough to play outside. These kids are all now out of school for at least a month. They are all outside playing. I'm the only one apparently having this internal battle of should they be playing together. My doorbell is going to ring more now and we'll have more contact with these kids because they aren't gone to school and activities all day. Unless I ban my kids from playing with them and THAT is going to go over like a lead balloon with my kids and the neighbor kids. The social pressure I feel is already enormous because we are the only homeschoolers. And my kids would have to stay inside all the time because everyone else is outside. They were playing baseball today which I was okay with because there was a lot of distance between kids and my kids have gotten amazing about handwashing every time they come inside because I am a harpy harper about for the last 6 months, but still.

I am instituting a no more neighbors on the trampoline rule, which hasn't happened lately anyway. I might make a riding bikes outside only rule for my kids because it seems like that would give the appropriate distancing. But when all the other neighborhood kids start a pick up basketball game and beg your kids to to play??? And you're the mean mom telling them they can't and no other parents find it problematic? Ugh.

I kind of pictured schools closing and parents and kids waving hello and shouting at each other over back fences. Not what's happening here.

 

Ugh. I'm sorry your neighbors are not taking this seriously :-/. Do you have cases in your area yet? 

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1 minute ago, EmseB said:

I am in a weird situation because I would LOVE to have no contact with anyone. I would have loved to quarantine ourselves since about January, tbh, because of flu and a new baby.

But we live in a small neighborhood and if you just count the four houses in my "quad" there are 16 kids, all but one is old enough to play outside. These kids are all now out of school for at least a month. They are all outside playing. I'm the only one apparently having this internal battle of should they be playing together. My doorbell is going to ring more now and we'll have more contact with these kids because they aren't gone to school and activities all day. Unless I ban my kids from playing with them and THAT is going to go over like a lead balloon with my kids and the neighbor kids. The social pressure I feel is already enormous because we are the only homeschoolers. And my kids would have to stay inside all the time because everyone else is outside. They were playing baseball today which I was okay with because there was a lot of distance between kids and my kids have gotten amazing about handwashing every time they come inside because I am a harpy harper about for the last 6 months, but still.

I am instituting a no more neighbors on the trampoline rule, which hasn't happened lately anyway. I might make a riding bikes outside only rule for my kids because it seems like that would give the appropriate distancing. But when all the other neighborhood kids start a pick up basketball game and beg your kids to to play??? And you're the mean mom telling them they can't and no other parents find it problematic? Ugh.

I kind of pictured schools closing and parents and kids waving hello and shouting at each other over back fences. Not what's happening here.

 

I think baseball isn’t quite as safe from infection POV as own bikes, but not bad.  Especially if no spit balls are allowed and equipment is cleaned often and kids wash hands before touching eyes etc.   

and if the kids waiting to bat line up with the Meter or two distance

If the 15 don’t each then have other significant contacts (scouts, church, visits to elderly relatives over 55 communities, etc) — that doesn’t sound all that bad to me. 

Im facing similar quandary but since my son is no longer homeschooling it is definitely fewer contacts for him now with school closed.  He and a few main friends, but a wider group of maybe up to 12, are still going to each others’ houses.  It is still a lot fewer together than a whole school, even a small rural school.

 

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21 minutes ago, square_25 said:

 

Ugh. I'm sorry your neighbors are not taking this seriously :-/. Do you have cases in your area yet? 

No, none reported in our county.

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46 minutes ago, square_25 said:

The problem is that it looks like asymptomatic people spread the virus.

The other problem that people who say "just go about your routine without coming close to others" don't seem to understand is that this virus is known to live on hard surfaces like doorknobs, desk tops, elevator buttons, shopping carts for more than 3 days. This means that I can be all alone in an elevator and getting infected or I can be in a conference room making a phone call, alone, and getting infected etc. Why do people think that pumping gas at a gas station is safe when the gas pumps are unsanitary? I carry lysol wipes and sanitizers and disposable gloves with me everywhere now. 

The public health officials are flying blind, as you say. There is absolutely no guarantee that going out and about doing your business is ok or if you have a playdate with a friend who is "trusted" you will be fine. Right now, there is panic in my neighborhood where a bunch of kids who had a playdate on Friday night with their friend from school have been informed that the father of that girl has tested positive for COVID-19 and he got it from his coworkers even though he has been working from home for the past 4 days 😞

In my community, there have been deaths of people who caught this infection from never having been to china and from what is termed as "community spreading": elderly people who are not mobile and who probably went to their monthly doctor visit and nowhere else. I am suspecting that they probably got it from a door handle or a pen that they used for signing or some such thing.

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3 hours ago, rebcoola said:

We are being asked to self quarantine as part of the emergency plan to keep the nuclear plant online.  Basically we are looking at a month minimum of absolutely no interaction except him going to work.  I don't believe the normal public needs to be at that level.

Yes you guys would be in the essential workers category.

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I’m seething at people bar hopping in Chicago yesterday. A Facebook friend shared photos of her night, and the  joking attitude was that nothing could stop St. Patrick’s day.

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17 minutes ago, Acorn said:

I’m seething at people bar hopping in Chicago yesterday. A Facebook friend shared photos of her night, and the  joking attitude was that nothing could stop St. Patrick’s day.

 

I hate that sort of thing.  If they only put themselves at risk it would not be such a big deal, but they put medical workers and others at risk too.  

It seems bizarre to have Ireland itself with st Patrick Day shut down and many in USA refusing to chill.

I don’t think St Patrick himself would approve.

Can’t people celebrate Irishness and down the Shamrock in small groups? 

 

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8 hours ago, EKS said:

Yes. And then there's that.  

I thought the OP was interested in what people who had a choice were doing/could do.

 

And @StellaM

No. 

I started this thread to be an overflow for expressing things such as anger and frustration that was getting too much for main thread

Started it off with questions related to some areas that led to recent contention — but where I thought people could discuss without likely violation of board rules in doing so. 

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8 hours ago, StellaM said:

 

Can't be done for many people, because there is zero support right now for people in this position who cannot work from home. 

Does anyone want to share their solutions for people in that position - at-risk but unable to isolate for financial reasons? Or should we just suck it up?

 

Please don’t quote.  I’ll delete later. 

I don’t know.  

I keep think about when I lived in New York City and had to take public transit to work each day. We did have some significant illness issues (AIDS and TB for example), but (at least once figured out) not so easily spread as this one. And little children weren’t probably so often the carriers. 

The TB was maybe closer especially as people were doing a lot of spitting and hawking saliva or  mucus in the streets, on subway platforms, etc.  

Changing ASAP upon arrival home (and plastic bagging shoes) etc was a part. 

I also lived in Brazil as a child with parent working in public health in favelas situation. And living right by though not in the favelas.  I was a kid though, not in charge. There was a lot of washing. Many things had to be boiled before use. Water had to be boiled before drinking.  Open Sewage flows had to avoided.  Doing things in ways to not get sick was the way life was.  And Brazil was my original “normal” (I wasn’t born there but didn’t have memories of life before).  Later on, Drinking un boiled water in US was a novelty to me. Like, really, is this safe? What about diarrhea? What about E. coli? What about cholera? 

But aside from when AIDS was new we were dealing with what were by then pretty well known and understood illnesses, and what to boil, how to bleach laundry etc etc was pretty well understood.

 I think that this is novel with much that is unknown is a good bit of the problem. 

Fallout from Chernobyl and Fukushima in the rainy fallout prone PNW might also be similar— perhaps especially with many people completely unconcerned. 

I guess the more you are willing to dress in ways others might find weird and act in ways others might find weird probably the safer you could be. 

If you could get comfortable with wearing a respirator mask it could help a great deal, I think. 

Respirator—ideally a washable reusable one (company with name like 2or 5 seconds has been following me with ads) , gloves, protective outer wear, hand sanitizer... changing right away at home carefully folding virus in, not shaking it off garments etc.  shoes kept outside of home

Hot water washing with bleach... 

 

 

 

 

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@StellaM this is respirator ad company that’s been following me.  https://5econds.com/products/face-filter

it says stock is very low now 

and then there was the one Yael had recommended that seems to be really good— but I wish I’d gotten model with nose clip that could more easily be conformed to my nose.  Also we haven’t had as bad smoke since it arrived, so my test of its function at least as against smoke is not as extensive as if it had come a week earlier. 

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If I were me, but in situation you @StellaM describe, I’d go much higher on D3 and also take NAC.   NAC tends to be anti anxiety and maybe could help with emotional aspects of respirator mask as well as lungs and immunity. 

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9 hours ago, StellaM said:

Does anyone want to share their solutions for people in that position - at-risk but unable to isolate for financial reasons? Or should we just suck it up?

 

DH has to go out and hither, tither, and yon in our state and in others while I am both immunocompromised and alone with the children (we are soo so so so screwed if I have to be hospitalized). May I suggest a finely-tuned rage at our collective powerlessness? It adds just a certain something 🙂 

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9 hours ago, CuriousMomof3 said:

Part of the solution for those of us for whom self isolation is impossible, is for other people who can self-isolate or limit engagement to do so.  If other people take steps that decrease their likelihood of spreading the virus, then those of us who have to be out and interacting are less likely to contract it.  

 

DING! 

Why are people so resistant to this?! 

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10 hours ago, happysmileylady said:

people can survive for weeks on bread and water.  We could all buy a tent, shut down our utilities and bug out in our tends while consuming bread and water and hunting rabbits with bows and arrows and set up a ten ft perimeter fence.  We could do this and survive.

But there is a huge continuum between what you posted and what is happening. 

For example: I stopped at a small grocery store on Friday, thinking more likely that Sat and Sun would be very crowded and stock would be low. Thought I was heading it off at the pass. This was not so. There were several things on my list I could not buy, and several things I had to buy an alternative. I could not get milk, celery or bread, which were on my list. 

So, we’re going to run out of milk, celery and bread (unless I make homemade bread). I may see if I can get these items some time in the next two weeks but if I can’t, oh well. We won’t have these specific items, but we still have plenty of food. 

To me, there’s nothing to equivocate on as far as what non-essential means. 

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Vent ahead.

There was a massive family text thread argument with my brother last night. He's convinced that because he has had a similar sounding crud that turned into pneumonia, that he will be immune or resistant to C19. We're all like, if only, but this is a totally new virus. He's like, it didn't come out of nowhere. We're like, yeah, it came from animals. He's like you have your theory and I have mine. We're like, dude, no, we're just telling you the scientific consensus. Your theory is a hunch that some flu thing you got from a music festival is the precursor. They've literally done the genetic sequence of this new one. Then he really lost it. He carried on about "mind over matter" (to which my mom was like, do you think people who are sick want to die and asked if he thought our father just didn't have mind over matter and that's why he died) and "population control" (to which my mom was like, are you saying it's okay if I get this and die because it's population control), spouted some random conspiracy theories (but backed off them when we were like, are you saying the government planned this thing?), and said if he turned out to be right and the flu that people following Phish and Dead cover bands have gotten at festivals is actually coronavirus, then he's never speaking to me again.

Seriously, this whole thing cannot be over fast enough. We've got MONTHS left. And here's hoping my brother, as someone who is young and healthy and not altering his behavior, doesn't hurt too many people with his lack of social distancing. Sigh.

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41 minutes ago, Farrar said:

Vent ahead.

There was a massive family text thread argument with my brother last night. He's convinced that because he has had a similar sounding crud that turned into pneumonia, that he will be immune or resistant to C19. We're all like, if only, but this is a totally new virus. He's like, it didn't come out of nowhere. We're like, yeah, it came from animals. He's like you have your theory and I have mine. We're like, dude, no, we're just telling you the scientific consensus. Your theory is a hunch that some flu thing you got from a music festival is the precursor. They've literally done the genetic sequence of this new one. Then he really lost it. He carried on about "mind over matter" (to which my mom was like, do you think people who are sick want to die and asked if he thought our father just didn't have mind over matter and that's why he died) and "population control" (to which my mom was like, are you saying it's okay if I get this and die because it's population control), spouted some random conspiracy theories (but backed off them when we were like, are you saying the government planned this thing?), and said if he turned out to be right and the flu that people following Phish and Dead cover bands have gotten at festivals is actually coronavirus, then he's never speaking to me again.

Seriously, this whole thing cannot be over fast enough. We've got MONTHS left. And here's hoping my brother, as someone who is young and healthy and not altering his behavior, doesn't hurt too many people with his lack of social distancing. Sigh.

Yeah, someone was telling me something like this, too. "Oh, I probably got it already! It's already been here for seasons!!" 

Right, that's why all the hospitals are being overwhelmed in Italy -- because it's always been here, and we just didn't NOTICE all the cases of acute respiratory distress! Of course, why didn't I think of that?! 

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52 minutes ago, Farrar said:

Vent ahead.

There was a massive family text thread argument with my brother last night. He's convinced that because he has had a similar sounding crud that turned into pneumonia, that he will be immune or resistant to C19. We're all like, if only, but this is a totally new virus. He's like, it didn't come out of nowhere. We're like, yeah, it came from animals. He's like you have your theory and I have mine. We're like, dude, no, we're just telling you the scientific consensus. Your theory is a hunch that some flu thing you got from a music festival is the precursor. They've literally done the genetic sequence of this new one. Then he really lost it. He carried on about "mind over matter" (to which my mom was like, do you think people who are sick want to die and asked if he thought our father just didn't have mind over matter and that's why he died) and "population control" (to which my mom was like, are you saying it's okay if I get this and die because it's population control), spouted some random conspiracy theories (but backed off them when we were like, are you saying the government planned this thing?), and said if he turned out to be right and the flu that people following Phish and Dead cover bands have gotten at festivals is actually coronavirus, then he's never speaking to me again.

Seriously, this whole thing cannot be over fast enough. We've got MONTHS left. And here's hoping my brother, as someone who is young and healthy and not altering his behavior, doesn't hurt too many people with his lack of social distancing. Sigh.

 

10 minutes ago, square_25 said:

Yeah, someone was telling me something like this, too. "Oh, I probably got it already! It's already been here for seasons!!" 

Right, that's why all the hospitals are being overwhelmed in Italy -- because it's always been here, and we just didn't NOTICE all the cases of acute respiratory distress! Of course, why didn't I think of that?! 

Someone told me they had it in October.... I've been off FB, did a quick check today and realized it was very lucky I had already been off when this crap started because it is saving me large amounts of annoyance and anger. My parents are right in line with my views, we hope this is not as bad as we fear but best to be cautious considering the facts we do know and what has happened elsewhere. A good friend said to me yesterday, don't you think this is going to blow over, um nope, not with our handling of it so far but here's hoping we pull our head out of our ass. Someone else said if it is God's wrath it doesn't matter what we do and the one that said they already had it seemed to be blowing it off (and is still planning a cruise in a matter of days).  I've been cautiously watching the news and info, as more unfolds I'm less reassured. I am sure that how it plays out is going to vary wildly between states as it has been different countries because of the way our government operates and the various ways places have handled it. It also gives me serious worry as to how our country would fair if something worse happened when people are losing their minds like it is the end of their world if they can't keep up their extra curricular activities. 

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8 hours ago, mathnerd said:

 

In my community, there have been deaths of people who caught this infection from never having been to china and from what is termed as "community spreading": elderly people who are not mobile and who probably went to their monthly doctor visit and nowhere else. I am suspecting that they probably got it from a door handle or a pen that they used for signing or some such thing.

It’s still crowded at the doctors office. People were definitely sitting less than 6ft/1.5m apart in the waiting area for my routine oncologist visit on Friday. Luckily my infusions are scheduled for Sunday mornings which is rather desolated in a nice way at the clinic.

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I do have a question. My family of eight all had a nasty respiratory virus back in January. Several of us were sick for a good week or more, sore throat, cough, etc., and a couple of us actually appeared to get better and then had another peak. I didn't end up taking anyone in because none of us were bad enough to need medical attention, no signs of bacterial infections, breathing troubles beyond what a little inhaler use could fix, no severe fever in the tiny ones. We all had confirmed flu A four years ago, and I think that was the big one this year too, so I don't know if it was a different strain of flu or something completely different. When we had flu A, the seven of us got sick in rapid succession, and all total, our family was out for about ten days. With this respiratory virus, we were out for a solid three weeks before all of us were better, twice as long, even accounting for the fact that we have an eighth person right now (who got it pretty mildly, hopefully thanks to nursing).

 

So my question is: are they developing a way to tell if you've been exposed and are now immune, as opposed to exposed and having an active infection? We will still be doing the recommended social distancing, but from my own anxiety standpoint, I'd love to know at some point if we actually have had this virus already. 

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A social media post FB from a pediatrician in my county that’s gone viral enough to reach me :

 

 

 

556766_130732597108506_807678874_n.jpg?_
 
Pilar Bradshaw
on Wednesday
 
 
 

I love our community. I grew up here, and Eugene is the only place I have ever worked, and the only place I have ever called home. It’s from that place of love that I am sharing my concern today – I believe Covid-19 is an imminent threat to our community, and we are not adequately ready. 

Today, we heard that still zero cases have been identified in Lane County. And that’s wonderful news. But people need to realize a few concerning facts:
· Test kits have been hard to come by, so the public health department has used strict guidelines on who has been allowed to be tested; thus, we have very little data in our state to help us assess where we are in this pandemic; all experts agree it will get worse – we just don’t know accurately how much worse
· Although private labs like Quest are starting to allow more testing to be done, it’s still not a large number of tests that are available. For example, Quest Labs has only 1,500 test kits for the entire west coast and ours are just now being shipped to Eugene Pediatrics from Quest headquarters
· Children are vectors of this virus – many kids worldwide have experienced mild symptoms when infected with Covid-19, but they are contagious to others in the community  
· Covid-19 is a novel virus that has infected humans for only a matter of months on this planet, so the scientific community is still discovering vital information about how easily this virus spreads, how long people remain infectious after they’re sick, etc

The data from China’s experience with Covid-19 have been published in multiple prominent medical journals, including the Journal of the American Medical Association and Lancet. The China data were used by professionals at the Lane County Public Health Dept to estimate what could happen here in Lane County. The numbers were presented to doctors in the community for the first time yesterday and repeated today. 

It is possible that: 

93,000-262,000 people in Lane County will become infected
13,000-29,000 people in Lane County will need to be hospitalized
4,700-10,500 people will need to be on a ventilator machine in an ICU
2,300-5,100 people will die from Covid-19

Our medical resources in Lane County will be overwhelmed by these numbers because our hospitals run near capacity at baseline, and we don’t have enough professionals or equipment to handle this volume of sick patients. I am sharing these numbers not to make people panic—but because I believe we need to get as ready as we can, and we need to do that now. Not by panicking – by being smart and nimble.

I am personally opposed to the Oregon Health Authority, State Board of Higher Education, and public schools stated desire to remain open even when cases of Covid-19 are found in the schools. I am immensely happy that the University of Oregon closed today. More schools should follow that model in my opinion. Social distancing is our only hope of decreasing the number of sick and dead from Covid-19. I fully recognize that the decision was complex and weighed many factors, prominently including the fact that many children rely on school for two meals a day. Nonetheless, faced with a pandemic, I feel it is wise to stop gathering our children together. 

So I personally think we need to:
- Close all schools. Now.
- Stop gathering in person for meetings, church, etc
- Cancel travel plans unless they are critical
- Get prescriptions, non-perishable food, and other provisions in case someone gets sick and needs to be quarantined at our home for a number of weeks
- Stay home if you’re sick with respiratory symptoms – and don’t go out until all symptoms have resolved (even if that is a week or more after fever is gone)
- Get healthy – take your preventive medications for asthma, high blood pressure or diabetes. Your body will need to be as strong as possible if you become sick
- Wash hands, cover coughs, change clothes upon arriving home, disinfect surfaces often
- Medical providers, community leaders, non-profit agency leaders – all need to come together to mobilize in a positive way to take care of our community
- Advocate for more testing kits to be made available by any means possible; money has been allocated by the federal government for Covid-19 and a chunk of that should go to labs that can quickly tool up for testing; South Korea is way ahead of us – let’s get moving in the USA

I am grateful to the Lane County Public Health Dept, and especially Dr. Patrick Luedtke, for daily phone updates and advocacy. I recognize that they are doing the best that they can in an extraordinary situation unlike any in our recent memory. Decisions are hard, resources are limited. They are doing their best.

First responders and medical personnel are going to be needed to care for the sick. But every single person can help take care of the rest of our community. Check on elderly neighbors, support those with medical illness and social disadvantages, get food for them, help each other in every way you can if this epidemic strikes us hard. If it doesn’t, some will say we prepared for nothing – but I believe if we are spared, it will be because we got organized and prepared.

We are a community. We are smart and loving people. We can do this together.

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1 minute ago, happypamama said:

I do have a question. My family of eight all had a nasty respiratory virus back in January. Several of us were sick for a good week or more, sore throat, cough, etc., and a couple of us actually appeared to get better and then had another peak. I didn't end up taking anyone in because none of us were bad enough to need medical attention, no signs of bacterial infections, breathing troubles beyond what a little inhaler use could fix, no severe fever in the tiny ones. We all had confirmed flu A four years ago, and I think that was the big one this year too, so I don't know if it was a different strain of flu or something completely different. When we had flu A, the seven of us got sick in rapid succession, and all total, our family was out for about ten days. With this respiratory virus, we were out for a solid three weeks before all of us were better. 

 

So my question is: are they developing a way to tell if you've been exposed and are now immune, as opposed to exposed and having an active infection? We will still be doing the recommended social distancing, but from my own anxiety standpoint, I'd love to know at some point if we actually have had this virus already. 

 

They are trying to have antibody tests available. I expect it will happen sooner or later.  

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13 hours ago, StellaM said:

 

Does anyone want to share their solutions for people in that position - at-risk but unable to isolate for financial reasons? Or should we just suck it up?

 

The NYTimes paywall is down for coronavirus articles; in general I believe I am reading  - gloves/mask/6 feet distance from one another/don't touch face, wash hands and maybe even body when arriving home before touching anything while someone else disinfects behind you, change clothes. Maintain the 6 feet  distance in the home by putting the person who is routinely outside in their own bedroom/bathroom if possible.  

Here social isolation is not quarantine...people are just asked to minimize direct contact and use good hygiene after using bathroom and while prepping/eating food.

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I think it's highly unlikely anyone in the US had this in January unless you have close connections to Wuhan. I'm basing it on the fact that it hasn't yet spread widely in the population and we haven't seen hospitals running out of ventilators. 

We also had a nasty virus in January. I am still coughing from it, but I have asthma. Nobody I know who had it, however, was hospitalized, including my dad. My dad is 70+ with a serious heart condition so if anyone was going to be sick with covid, it was him. 

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11 minutes ago, Paige said:

I think it's highly unlikely anyone in the US had this in January unless you have close connections to Wuhan. I'm basing it on the fact that it hasn't yet spread widely in the population and we haven't seen hospitals running out of ventilators. 

We also had a nasty virus in January. I am still coughing from it, but I have asthma. Nobody I know who had it, however, was hospitalized, including my dad. My dad is 70+ with a serious heart condition so if anyone was going to be sick with covid, it was him. 

 

I had something that felt like a lot like the flu in November, and a bunch of other people seemed to have the same illness in December and January (it was going around). No one was claiming that it was coronavirus until they got busy burying their heads in the sand... 

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11 hours ago, SKL said:

I was thinking the same thing.  People ceasing to patronize businesses means layoffs of people who need their jobs most.  Also it will hurt the smaller and newer businesses which don't have deep pockets to weather the storm.  Now someone will get up and say that the people with the deep pockets should help those unfortunates, and some will, but that's not going to even things out.  Because most people, no matter how objectively well-off, always feel like they themselves don't have enough.  And those who are inclined to help can only make a drop in the bucket.

I feel we need to get people back to work somehow.  Maybe they can find jobs delivering food/supplies to quarantined families or being extra staff at hospitals or whatever else.  I hope the adjustment happens quickly.  Because the mental and economic effects of a crash can also lead to loss of life.


100%
 

We are a small business family and already hit hard- the pull back is immediate.  It’s already real and happening and not theoretical.  Most small businesses have no means to offset things like this...Just as and most employees cannot go for 4 weeks without income, or “choose” to stay home. Some things just are. 
 

The larger ramifications won’t be felt by “others” who are quite financially   insulated for some time and then screaming will presumably begin.  

My friends who are SAHM and have DHs who have BIIIIIIG jobs have no concept of economics implications because they are a insulated.  Yet they are convinced they have a pulse while nothing has changed for them besides inconvenience and generalized fear/anxiety/worry. 

My self employed friends (travel agent, bakery owner, AirBnB owners, restaurant owner) are already hurting and concerned because none of us see any easy or swift end to all of this. Why would anyone think it will simply go away in a month or not return next Fall?  

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We're planning on going hiking a couple time a week unless the trails get crowded. I think I'm fine with meeting up and hiking with others to talk as we walk. To me, that seems in line with the guidance I've read. However, I'm nervous. We already arranged to meet with one family, and I've reminded her that my husband is likely to come into contact with the virus and since she has parents living in her house (late 60s, I think, and poor health) I completely understand if she wants to back out. I thought she surely she would. When my daughter got lice this friend kept her kids away for three weeks after we got rid of them, so I was sure she'd play it safe with a killer virus. Nope, she is going to to meet and her dad is coming, too! She hadn't even heard the term "social distancing" so I'm wondering if she just hasn't paid any attention and thinks the whole thing is ridiculous. I'm not sure whether we should just cancel the hike and go a different day, or whether I should just remind the kids not to touch each other and wash up afterwards. 

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I’m sorry, @Farrar. I think *someone* in the opinion news world is spreading this belief. My dh and I had a similar conversation, though it didn’t take the same heated turn yours did. Dh speculated that the flu he had at our home before Christmas was probably actually Covid-19. I said I thought that was extremely unlikely...for, say, early February, yeah. But not back in December in Maryland. 

And then I reminded him that his mother stayed with us for the month of January and if there was any Coronavirus hanging around in our house, what does he think would have happened to her? 

It’s hard to listen to some people right now. 

 

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36 minutes ago, Paige said:

I think it's highly unlikely anyone in the US had this in January unless you have close connections to Wuhan. I'm basing it on the fact that it hasn't yet spread widely in the population and we haven't seen hospitals running out of ventilators. 

We also had a nasty virus in January. I am still coughing from it, but I have asthma. Nobody I know who had it, however, was hospitalized, including my dad. My dad is 70+ with a serious heart condition so if anyone was going to be sick with covid, it was him. 

My brother was talking about something he had years ago. He's engaged in conspiracy theories. He's convinced that the "flu" you get if you're at a week-long concert and everyone gets sick is a single virus, that no one has ever researched it because it's something "dirty hippies" get, and that it's probably the same virus that has now mutated into this illness because "these things don't come out of nowhere." Sigh.

But I have been hearing some stories from a couple of different friends with college kids about illnesses that swept campuses in late January/early February. A lot of colleges don't go back until the end of January and have tons of international students, including a lot of Chinese students. And now several of those schools now seem to have cases. I don't really know if it's true... but it does seem to make sense. So I don't think it's out of the ballpark to be a "random" American and have gotten this in late January. One of the things the South Korean numbers are telling us is that there may be large numbers of young people driving the spread.

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Aaaaand, one of the moms in my homeschool math class that's been canceled due to the homeschool center being shut has suggested that the class instead meet at the library or her house (!!) 

Yeah, not happening. I get the sense the responses to my e-mail (which suggested that I could send kids worksheets and suggestions for games and that I could help via e-mail or Skype, but that a game-based classroom wasn't going to work well via Zoom) are going to make me angry. 

Olena 

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7 minutes ago, xahm said:

We're planning on going hiking a couple time a week unless the trails get crowded. I think I'm fine with meeting up and hiking with others to talk as we walk. To me, that seems in line with the guidance I've read. However, I'm nervous. We already arranged to meet with one family, and I've reminded her that my husband is likely to come into contact with the virus and since she has parents living in her house (late 60s, I think, and poor health) I completely understand if she wants to back out. I thought she surely she would. When my daughter got lice this friend kept her kids away for three weeks after we got rid of them, so I was sure she'd play it safe with a killer virus. Nope, she is going to to meet and her dad is coming, too! She hadn't even heard the term "social distancing" so I'm wondering if she just hasn't paid any attention and thinks the whole thing is ridiculous. I'm not sure whether we should just cancel the hike and go a different day, or whether I should just remind the kids not to touch each other and wash up afterwards. 

I'd personally feel too freaked out to go on this hike, because I'd be scared of exposing them. On the other hand, it looks like they are going to get it whatever you do :-/.

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8 minutes ago, Farrar said:

But I have been hearing some stories from a couple of different friends with college kids about illnesses that swept campuses in late January/early February. A lot of colleges don't go back until the end of January and have tons of international students, including a lot of Chinese students. And now several of those schools now seem to have cases. I don't really know if it's true... but it does seem to make sense. So I don't think it's out of the ballpark to be a "random" American and have gotten this in late January. One of the things the South Korean numbers are telling us is that there may be large numbers of young people driving the spread.

Yeah, that wouldn't be surprising. However, then I'd expect reports of respiratory issues -- that wouldn't have happened on campuses, since everyone's young. But here, yeah, I'd expect that. 

Edited by square_25

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35 minutes ago, Farrar said:

My brother was talking about something he had years ago. He's engaged in conspiracy theories. He's convinced that the "flu" you get if you're at a week-long concert and everyone gets sick is a single virus, that no one has ever researched it because it's something "dirty hippies" get, and that it's probably the same virus that has now mutated into this illness because "these things don't come out of nowhere." Sigh.

But I have been hearing some stories from a couple of different friends with college kids about illnesses that swept campuses in late January/early February. A lot of colleges don't go back until the end of January and have tons of international students, including a lot of Chinese students. And now several of those schools now seem to have cases. I don't really know if it's true... but it does seem to make sense. So I don't think it's out of the ballpark to be a "random" American and have gotten this in late January. One of the things the South Korean numbers are telling us is that there may be large numbers of young people driving the spread.

 

I will delete soon so please don’t quote. 

<snipped>

Edited by Seasider too
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1 minute ago, square_25 said:

Yeah, that wouldn't be surprising. However, then I'd expect reports of respiratory issues. 

Exactly. College students are young enough to weather this as a group relatively unscathed, but if it went through a college, a significant number would have still probably needed hospitalization even if they recovered. They would have tested and been negative for flu A and B. And, more importantly, there's no reason why it wouldn't have spread to the greater community and exploded like you see in Washington state, NYC, or Wuhan.

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8 minutes ago, Paige said:

Exactly. College students are young enough to weather this as a group relatively unscathed, but if it went through a college, a significant number would have still probably needed hospitalization even if they recovered. They would have tested and been negative for flu A and B. And, more importantly, there's no reason why it wouldn't have spread to the greater community and exploded like you see in Washington state, NYC, or Wuhan.

In the cases I've heard about, it was an upper respiratory "thing" but so few kids needed any medical attention that it didn't raise eyebrows at all. And that's in keeping with what we know about this disease tends to affect young people. I was certainly sick with flu (or something similar) at least twice in my college career. I never once went to the health services for it. Nor did most of my friends. It was just, you know, let's hibernate in our rooms and then pull ourselves together and head to class after a day or two. And that's what this would have felt like for college students.

I think that's exactly what may have happened in Boston though. And in Ohio. We don't know for sure if we're not testing.

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2 minutes ago, Farrar said:

In the cases I've heard about, it was an upper respiratory "thing" but so few kids needed any medical attention that it didn't raise eyebrows at all. And that's in keeping with what we know about this disease tends to affect young people. I was certainly sick with flu (or something similar) at least twice in my college career. I never once went to the health services for it. Nor did most of my friends. It was just, you know, let's hibernate in our rooms and then pull ourselves together and head to class after a day or two. And that's what this would have felt like for college students.

I think that's exactly what may have happened in Boston though. And in Ohio. We don't know for sure if we're not testing.

The fact that we haven't been testing is just ridiculous. It would be so much easier to figure out what to do if we had a good idea of the scale of the problem. 

Edited by square_25
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1 minute ago, Farrar said:

In the cases I've heard about, it was an upper respiratory "thing" but so few kids needed any medical attention that it didn't raise eyebrows at all. And that's in keeping with what we know about this disease tends to affect young people. I was certainly sick with flu (or something similar) at least twice in my college career. I never once went to the health services for it. Nor did most of my friends. It was just, you know, let's hibernate in our rooms and then pull ourselves together and head to class after a day or two. And that's what this would have felt like for college students.

I think that's exactly what may have happened in Boston though. And in Ohio. We don't know for sure if we're not testing.

 

What I don’t understand is why there (apparently) haven't been attempts to look into the international student connection. Maybe by this point it’s moot. 

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1 minute ago, Seasider too said:

 

What I don’t understand is why there (apparently) haven't been attempts to look into the international student connection. Maybe by this point it’s moot. 

Yeah. I think from a disease spread POV, it's probably totally moot to try and find the original vectors. There may be some superspreaders out there (there certainly seem to be) but generally, we just have to assume it's everywhere.

I assume that in a few years, when we're recovered and far enough out from this, that the original spread may be studied and better understood.

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Welp.  I’m still sick in bed but the coughing and chest tightness has increased since Friday.  Oh well. Still totally manageable at home, thankfully.  A different kid began getting symptoms so we will see how this percolates there, too.

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2 minutes ago, Arctic Mama said:

Welp.  I’m still sick in bed but the coughing and chest tightness has increased since Friday.  Oh well. Still totally manageable at home, thankfully.  A different kid began getting symptoms so we will see how this percolates there, too.

Sorry you're still feeling sick :-(. 

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1 hour ago, Farrar said:

My brother was talking about something he had years ago. He's engaged in conspiracy theories. He's convinced that the "flu" you get if you're at a week-long concert and everyone gets sick is a single virus, that no one has ever researched it because it's something "dirty hippies" get, and that it's probably the same virus that has now mutated into this illness because "these things don't come out of nowhere." Sigh.

I'm sorry your brother is being such a pain. I suppose it's normal for conspiracy theories to abound over something like this, but I just don't get it. In my religious community I keep hearing about how the big, scary government has banned church services and we have to refuse. No, the government has asked people to refrain from gathering in large groups in order to flatten the curve and protect the vulnerable. Big difference.

And then there's people like my parents, who aren't conspiracy theorists but just think the whole thing is blown out of proportion and have no plans to alter anything. Despite the fact that they just returned from traveling last weekend and promptly became sick. My mother at least went to the doctor and was diagnosed with flu A but my father "just has a mild cold" and has been out and about all day every day this week. Sigh.

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I can't wait for an antibody test to be available. We got sick the last week of February & the first week of March after being in Chicago the weekend before, with someone who'd been in LA for a week.  So it's possible we had it, and it's possible we didn't and still need to be careful.

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Life is fairly normal here.  No mass and no volunteering at church is the biggest change to leave large empty spots on our calendar. It’s spring break for college kids at home so we are doing what we normally would - some movies are being watched, cookies baked, games being played, walks and parks - though I’m choosing parks not well attended and in the open sunshine.  Tomorrow I’ll meet a couple friends for coffee at Panera at 6am.  Home schooling is as usual only instead of encouraging them to finish so we can do our usual activities, it’s so we can enjoy college kids being home.

I’m annoyed college dd is going to only switched to online classes but didn’t close their very small campus.  So they all get to share the dorms that have iffy hot water and the cafeteria and all the non-classroom buildings.  I guess the older staff that can work from home will be healthier for it and to hell with the young people still working and living on campus. They didn’t even extend spring break.

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