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Murphy101

Am I the only one not overly worried about Covid19?

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4 hours ago, Laurie said:

From the local news:  https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/washington-coronavirus-death-count-hits-40-and-642-cases

I'm not very good with statistics, but I was really surprised at the numbers in the story.  Of course the media will highlight the death count and 40 deaths is very sad.  But isn't it a good thing that there are 7,122 people in our state who have tested negative for the virus?   The number of people with positive cases is listed as 642, and so far I haven't heard any reports of hospitals being overwhelmed with very sick people and not able to provide beds or other equipment.   There was a woman interviewed on the news  who was very surprised when she learned that she had tested positive for the virus, and she was never in the hospital.  It's just like the medical experts have been saying:  most people will recover without needing any medical attention.  

I truly understand that this virus can be fatal.  My husband is in a higher risk group, and I think I'm more concerned than he is.  But I'm still amazed at the level of attention and even panic that's going on.  I can see paying a lot of attention to infection control measures in places like nursing homes, but I never imagined that so many places would be shutting down.  

 

 

 

 

It's the exponential curve that is scary - not the numbers now.  To flatten the curve requires shutting things down before the hospitals overload & there are lots of cases and deaths.  Local hospitals expect to be slammed, even with our shutdowns & are cancelling PT, elective surgeries, etc to clear the decks for incoming cases.  The impact of shutting down won't show until around 2 weeks from now, but I am hoping it makes a significant difference & that people practice serious social distancing to maximize the impact. 

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5 hours ago, Laurie said:

From the local news:  https://komonews.com/news/coronavirus/washington-coronavirus-death-count-hits-40-and-642-cases

I'm not very good with statistics, but I was really surprised at the numbers in the story.  Of course the media will highlight the death count and 40 deaths is very sad.  But isn't it a good thing that there are 7,122 people in our state who have tested negative for the virus?   The number of people with positive cases is listed as 642, and so far I haven't heard any reports of hospitals being overwhelmed with very sick people and not able to provide beds or other equipment.   There was a woman interviewed on the news  who was very surprised when she learned that she had tested positive for the virus, and she was never in the hospital.  It's just like the medical experts have been saying:  most people will recover without needing any medical attention.  

I truly understand that this virus can be fatal.  My husband is in a higher risk group, and I think I'm more concerned than he is.  But I'm still amazed at the level of attention and even panic that's going on.  I can see paying a lot of attention to infection control measures in places like nursing homes, but I never imagined that so many places would be shutting down.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

We are currently roughly climbing along the dashed red line, but still below the level where cases outstrip medical capacity.  We need to head over to a line that more mimics the blue line before we follow the re line on up into the need for medical support exceeding  the potential supply.

D76D7CAD-0F70-42BB-8A38-0DBAB4FCC5A0.jpeg

F8386831-E6C5-4737-837E-F6E855C4A93B.jpeg

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4 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

You could replace the word Chinese with American and have pretty much the same truth, unfortunately.  

I'm doing this in the sentence you quotes and not understanding what you're saying. You think the American govt knew what was happening in China before it came out as news to the rest of the world? I'm so confused. What possible reason would the US have for keeping the secret that a novel virus was killing people in Wuhan? We could have stopped the spread from China and didn't?

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Pen, one thing I have trouble with the flattening of the curve graphs is that none of them have metrics. It's used to express an idea, not a quantity. So putting it up against a graph of quantity of cases doesn't help me see much because it can't be measured against the other graph and because a lot of those cases aren't in hospital at all or might be recovering. And, what it takes to flatten the curve in different locales is going to vary a lot.

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37 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

 

We are currently roughly climbing along the dashed red line, but still below the level where cases outstrip medical capacity.  We need to head over to a line that more mimics the blue line before we follow the re line on up into the need for medical support exceeding  the potential supply.

D76D7CAD-0F70-42BB-8A38-0DBAB4FCC5A0.jpeg

F8386831-E6C5-4737-837E-F6E855C4A93B.jpeg

 

My friend who is an ER nurse had 24 hours overtime last week. We don't have a single Covid case on the hospital yet. We have no capacity up here. 😣

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6 hours ago, Ktgrok said:

 

Well, the issue is that unlike the flu, workers in nursing homes can't be vaccinated for this. So if a bunch of us are running around the grocery store and the movies and Panera and church feeling well but spreading the virus, those workers are more likely to pick it up themselves and then transmit it to their patients at the nursing home. Until we have a vaccine, those of us not at risk need to help protect those at risk, as best we can. 

Yet, there are 10,000-61,000 deaths each year in the US alone attributed to the flu.  So, even WITH a vaccine, for flu there are a number of deaths.  How many deaths from flu would there need to be before that is what the headlines are about and we are warned not to go to school, work, or church because of the flu?

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2 hours ago, Pen said:

We are currently roughly climbing along the dashed red line, but still below the level where cases outstrip medical capacity.  We need to head over to a line that more mimics the blue line before we follow the re line on up into the need for medical support exceeding  the potential supply.

 

What indication do we have that we are climbing the red curve and not the blue curve?  Where are we really compared to stressing the medical community?  

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16 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

What indication do we have that we are climbing the red curve and not the blue curve?  Where are we really compared to stressing the medical community?  

 

There are calculations available based on current doubling rate.  The doubling rate must slow down.

The medical community in several areas of West Coast states is *already* getting stressed trying to convert hospital floors and wings into facilities to care for CV19 patients who have exceeded capacity of first designated CV hospital(s). 

They *already* need slowing down of case rate, like yesterday.  I don’t have links offhand , but also I have the feeling that doing one own research is more valuable than receiving a link. 

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3 hours ago, EmseB said:

Pen, one thing I have trouble with the flattening of the curve graphs is that none of them have metrics. It's used to express an idea, not a quantity. So putting it up against a graph of quantity of cases doesn't help me see much because it can't be measured against the other graph and because a lot of those cases aren't in hospital at all or might be recovering. And, what it takes to flatten the curve in different locales is going to vary a lot.

The focus is on simplifying the message. Those of us who want more details can look into it, but most people aren’t going to do that. They need a quick and simple idea handed to them.

And it isn’t exactly “right” to try to throw out quantities with so many unknowns, because people may disregard the idea if/when the numbers don’t “come true”.

According to WaPo, The US has 2.8 beds per 1,000. 12 for South Korea, 4.3 for China, and 3.2 for Italy. If we apply that data and look at their results, we don’t really need to know the quantity of patients who don’t need hospitalization.  We can know that 3.2 and 4.3 weren’t enough to prevent overwhelm with the measures they took, and see that we (currently) don’t have as many. And we can still surmise that the specific extent will vary by locale without debunking the entire concept.

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36 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

There are calculations available based on current doubling rate.  The doubling rate must slow down.

The medical community in several areas of West Coast states is *already* getting stressed trying to convert hospital floors and wings into facilities to care for CV19 patients who have exceeded capacity of first designated CV hospital(s). 

They *already* need slowing down of case rate, like yesterday.  I don’t have links offhand , but also I have the feeling that doing one own research is more valuable than receiving a link. 

I have done research and I cannot find anything that indicates the US capacity in a meaningful way.  I realize that the stress may occur in particular areas.  At this point, only three states have greater than 200 cases.  

Also, this chart by the CDC does not indicate a daily doubling rate:

image.thumb.png.5a304cf822a95a74887bb1408b712c9e.png

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10 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

The focus is on simplifying the message. Those of us who want more details can look into it, but most people aren’t going to do that. They need a quick and simple idea handed to them.

And it isn’t exactly “right” to try to throw out quantities with so many unknowns, because people may disregard the idea if/when the numbers don’t “come true”.

I see this as problematic.  This chart looks so "official" and "exact" but it is simply a great artistic rendering of an "idea"  There is no indication of how it applies to the situation at hand.  Yet, people are making decisions based upon this.  If it isn't right to throw out quantities because of so many unknowns, I do not see how it is right to assume we are on the red curve, rather than the blue curve.  Could it be just as likely, with so many unknowns, that we are on a curve that even falls below the blue curve?

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17 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

I have done research and I cannot find anything that indicates the US capacity in a meaningful way.  I realize that the stress may occur in particular areas.  At this point, only three states have greater than 200 cases.  

Also, this chart by the CDC does not indicate a daily doubling rate:

image.thumb.png.5a304cf822a95a74887bb1408b712c9e.png

 

If I wrote daily doubling that was an error on my part.

Doubling even every couple of weeks would be enough to lead to crisis, given current rate of need for hospital help.  

 

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5 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

I see this as problematic.  This chart looks so "official" and "exact" but it is simply a great artistic rendering of an "idea"  There is no indication of how it applies to the situation at hand.  Yet, people are making decisions based upon this.  If it isn't right to throw out quantities because of so many unknowns, I do not see how it is right to assume we are on the red curve, rather than the blue curve.  Could it be just as likely, with so many unknowns, that we are on a curve that even falls below the blue curve?

I’m not sure I understand exactly what you’re trying to say.
We don’t know exactly where on the curve we are/will be. We can’t until it’s done and we look backwards. We have a decent understanding of how things mathematically and scientifically work in unchecked scenarios.  Mathematically and scientifically, people reducing their “unchecked” behaviors can manipulate the rate at which it moves.  We can start to look backwards at the data from other places farther along in the timeline.

Would it help to think of it like birth rates?  We can have a good idea of how many babies will be born in the future based on the data of previous years. But people’s decisions about their own personal reproduction can reduce or increase what actually happens.

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2 minutes ago, Pen said:

 

If I wrote daily doubling that was an error on my part.

Doubling even every couple of weeks would be enough to lead to crisis, given current rate of need for hospital help.  

 

Looking at the CDC statistics there were approximately 800 cases in the US at the end of last week,  If we had doubling ever couple of weeks that would mean:

End of March--1600 cases

Mid April-3200 cases

End of April 6400 cases

Mid May 12,800 cases

End of May 25,600 cases--If every one of those cases ended up in deaths we would be ending up with a number of deaths about equivalent to a flu season

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2 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

I’m not sure I understand exactly what you’re trying to say.
We don’t know exactly where on the curve we are/will be. We can’t until it’s done and we look backwards. We have a decent understanding of how things mathematically and scientifically work in unchecked scenarios.  Mathematically and scientifically, people reducing their “unchecked” behaviors can manipulate the rate at which it moves.  We can start to look backwards at the data from other places farther along in the timeline.

Would it help to think of it like birth rates?  We can have a good idea of how many babies will be born in the future based on the data of previous years. But people’s decisions about their own personal reproduction can reduce or increase what actually happens.

Yes, we know that people changing their behaviors can manipulate the rate at which it moves.  But, given the data that we do have available, is it clear that we are currently on the red line?  Why is it reasonable, given current data to believe we are on the red line rather than the blue line?

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4 hours ago, EmseB said:

Pen, one thing I have trouble with the flattening of the curve graphs is that none of them have metrics. It's used to express an idea, not a quantity. So putting it up against a graph of quantity of cases doesn't help me see much because it can't be measured against the other graph and because a lot of those cases aren't in hospital at all or might be recovering. And, what it takes to flatten the curve in different locales is going to vary a lot.

 

I agree with some explanation above.

Taking my own area for example. They are scrambling to increase capacity, but basically there are iirc 10 adult critical care beds potentially currently available at hospital designated for CV. (Which is the better newer and bigger  of two area wide hospitals).  Though some beds may have people with other problems occupying them, I guess they’ll try to move other stuff to other hospital as long as possible. Any number of cases above 10 will be a stress to manage — especially without spread of infection. Based on my last time visiting someone in ICU, I’d say even 10 will be a stress since it was designed to allow fewer staff to deal with several patients at once with sort of cubicle like not very separated spaces, not designed for excellent containment of an easily spread virus. And I don’t know if it has had its air containment system to be separated from rest of hospital air system fixed yet.  We need Time to set such things up, the more the better, time to manufacture more PPE .   We probably are about to have our first official local case shortly, which is to say someone sick enough to qualify for testing.  If so the person has had huge numbers of community contacts. 

 

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4 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

Yes, we know that people changing their behaviors can manipulate the rate at which it moves.  But, given the data that we do have available, is it clear that we are currently on the red line?  Why is it reasonable, given current data to believe we are on the red line rather than the blue line?

It’s reasonable to believe that we have been headed that way because we know our healthcare capabilities/resources and can see the current rate of infection.  We can’t know if we’ve enabled a shift unless/until the rate changes and/or our healthcare capabilities change.

I’m truly not sure what more people want. We have as much real-time information as we’re capable of right now. We can choose to believe in it, or we can reject it because we don’t have psychic/omnipresent/omnipotent powers.  

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2 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

It’s reasonable to believe that we have been headed that way because we know our healthcare capabilities/resources and can see the current rate of infection.  We can’t know if we’ve enabled a shift unless/until the rate changes and/or our healthcare capabilities change.

I’m truly not sure what more people want. We have as much real-time information as we’re capable of right now. We can choose to believe in it, or we can reject it because we don’t have psychic/omnipresent/omnipotent powers.  

Yes we know our reported current rate of infection, but I do not have good/reliable numbers regarding our healthcare capabilities/resources.  it seems as if given the numbers that we do know, we conclude that we are on the red curve, those numbers could easily be plotted and show how it looks so far.  I have not been able to find the numbers to do so, and I have not found anyone who has.  

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8 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

Looking at the CDC statistics there were approximately 800 cases in the US at the end of last week,  If we had doubling ever couple of weeks that would mean:

End of March--1600 cases

Mid April-3200 cases

End of April 6400 cases

Mid May 12,800 cases

End of May 25,600 cases--If every one of those cases ended up in deaths we would be ending up with a number of deaths about equivalent to a flu season

 

There were not only 800 cases. There are 800 confirmed cases.  Huge difference.  

And deaths is not the critical problem. The critical problem is the medical system cannot handle the cases needing hospital care.

Or is your idea to lock all confirmed sick people away and let them all die without care? 

Assuming death rate at 1% and there are  ~60 confirmed case deaths (very possibly more unconfirmed because testing hasn’t been being done), then there are already at least 6000 cases.   The 

Actual doubling rate will change depending on what people do, and current actual rate of doubling seems to be around 5-6 days or possibly less. 

If you go to Worldometer.info graphs you can see some supposed to be official numbers by clicking any point on the graph. I have screen shot the most recent graph point and the point before it closest to when it was half as much .

I am then out of photo space space so will delete in a while after you probably have had time to look. 

 

2B92B178-865F-43EA-AFD0-7CB8456D7A98.png

36A48520-19DE-4C38-96A1-BB15220C2E37.png

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The actual case rate graph line has a geometric rise (slope) similar to the red line. 

Or to put it differently, red line is what happens with uncontrolled spread.  And USA currently has community spread that isn’t controlled.  Hence it is following a red line pattern.  

Control, which includes shutting things down, social distance etc could move it to a blue line type of pattern and slope.  Though not if lots of people refuse to do their part and remain in denial. 

Edited by Pen
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43 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

Looking at the CDC statistics there were approximately 800 cases in the US at the end of last week,  If we had doubling ever couple of weeks that would mean:

End of March--1600 cases

Mid April-3200 cases

End of April 6400 cases

Mid May 12,800 cases

End of May 25,600 cases--If every one of those cases ended up in deaths we would be ending up with a number of deaths about equivalent to a flu season

Your numbers are just way off here. It’s at more than 3,000 confirmed cases today. Two days ago, it was at about 1600. So your doubling rate there is about two days. In fact, if you look at the data on Worldometer, the doubling time has been about every two days for the last bit, not every two weeks.

Some of this is because we’re talking about confirmed cases and testing has ramped up. But not all. ER docs are also talking about starting to see this same exponential growth in patients. Even accounting for the added testing, the doubling rate is nothing like two weeks.

Edited by Farrar
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2 minutes ago, Farrar said:

Your numbers are just way off here. It’s at more than 3,000 confirmed cases today. Two days ago, it was at about 1600. So your doubling rate there is about two days. In fact, if you look at the data on Worldometer, the doubling time has been about every two days for the last bit, not every two weeks.

Some of this is because we’re talking about confirmed cases and testing has ramped up. But not all. ER docs are also talking about starting to see this same exponential growth in patients. Even accounting for the added testing, the doubling rate is nothing like two weeks.

 

To clarify, the “two weeks” was a hypothetical on my part that would rapidly still be overwhelming in my own area where 2 medium size hospitals serve an enormous swath of land and population around 500,000 to 1 million with 10 adult ICU beds available.   I know that actual rate of doubling is currently much shorter. 

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44 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

Yes we know our reported current rate of infection, but I do not have good/reliable numbers regarding our healthcare capabilities/resources.  it seems as if given the numbers that we do know, we conclude that we are on the red curve, those numbers could easily be plotted and show how it looks so far.  I have not been able to find the numbers to do so, and I have not found anyone who has.  

The last best numbers I know are 2.8 beds per 1,000.  Actual numbers will vary by locale.
I guarantee someone out there has gathered the last best numbers for at least the US, if not specific US locales or other countries.  But my impression is that government officials are not going to be THAT specific in their messaging in effort to reduce panic. Their efforts to become more transparent still have to be balanced with other factors.

ETA: We also know that most hospitals already operate near, at, or above capacity without COVID cases, so that may be something you would want to take into account for your own curiosity. I do not know how that compares with other countries.

Edited by Carrie12345
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2 minutes ago, Carrie12345 said:

The last best numbers I know are 2.8 beds per 1,000.  Actual numbers will vary by locale.
I guarantee someone out there has gathered the last best numbers for at least the US, if not specific US locales or other countries.  But my impression is that government officials are not going to be THAT specific in their messaging in effort to reduce panic. Their efforts to become more transparent still have to be balanced with other factors.

My concern is looking at charts without any idea of what the specifics are is more likely to induce panic.  

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@Bootsie

please read:

https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/03/covid-19-a-stress-test-for-a-us-health-care-system.html

quote from it but suggest you read whole plus also perhaps the imbedded links

“The stresses of COVID-19 come as America's health care system already is under considerable daily stress. Many hospitals and health systems across the United States routinely operate near or at capacity, and a surge could create serious problems as patients pour in

...

“... Conflicting reports (PDF) surrounding an outbreak can result in skepticism about the outbreak risk, reluctance to adopt recommended infection control measures, and promotion of mass hysteria. ...”

and

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

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3 hours ago, Bootsie said:

Yet, there are 10,000-61,000 deaths each year in the US alone attributed to the flu.  So, even WITH a vaccine, for flu there are a number of deaths.  How many deaths from flu would there need to be before that is what the headlines are about and we are warned not to go to school, work, or church because of the flu?

The following is my understanding; I am not a doctor or epidemiologist:

Several differences between the flu and Covid-19 are important - crucial, actually.

1. The flu contagious-wihout-symptoms period is much shorter. It is generally 2 days. Covid-19 can be 14 days and some estimates say up to 3 weeks. So one person, one point-of-contact (without quarantining) can interact with many more transmission points in two weeks than in two days. 

2. Most people who get the flu have no doubt they are sick within a couple of days and so they stay home. But with Covid, you could *think* you are not sick at all, are feeling your spring allergies coming on, or have a seasonal cold. And that’s potentially after two weeks of walking around contaminating surfaces and infecting people. 

3. As a novel virus, nobody has antibodies built up against it (except perhaps people who have already recovered or possibly some who interact with patients). Most of the population worldwide has no natural or vaccine-induced immunity to Covid-19 because it is new, but this is not true for the flu. These factors make it highly transmissible. 

4. When we do have a vaccine for C19, we will no longer need such drastic social distancing measures because the transmissibility rates will fall precipitously once millions of people have been vaccinated worldwide. BUT, mark my words, there will still be cases, probably in the thousands, every year in the future because many people will philosophically or for other reasons (which may or may not be legitimate) refuse to get a Covid-19 vaccine. 

I’m sure there is more information on this subject but those are the main differences, as I understand them, between the flu and Covid-19. 

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9 minutes ago, Pen said:

@Bootsie

please read:

https://www.rand.org/blog/2020/03/covid-19-a-stress-test-for-a-us-health-care-system.html

quote from it but suggest you read whole plus also perhaps the imbedded links

“The stresses of COVID-19 come as America's health care system already is under considerable daily stress. Many hospitals and health systems across the United States routinely operate near or at capacity, and a surge could create serious problems as patients pour in

...

“... Conflicting reports (PDF) surrounding an outbreak can result in skepticism about the outbreak risk, reluctance to adopt recommended infection control measures, and promotion of mass hysteria. ...”

and

https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

The Rand.org blog repeatedly uses the words "could" and "can".  I understand the concern for these potential outcomes.  But, that is far different form "will".  Of course, we do not know yet how bad it will be.  But, as the quote on conflicting reports points out, in addition to skepticism about an outbreak, there is also a risk of mass hysteria.  

Although the statews.com article says it addresses "second-order effects" the assumption is made that hospital bed usage for other things will remain the same in the US.  That seems to be logically inconsistent.

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1 hour ago, Bootsie said:

Looking at the CDC statistics there were approximately 800 cases in the US at the end of last week,  If we had doubling ever couple of weeks that would mean:

End of March--1600 cases

Mid April-3200 cases

End of April 6400 cases

Mid May 12,800 cases

End of May 25,600 cases--If every one of those cases ended up in deaths we would be ending up with a number of deaths about equivalent to a flu season

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

cases today are already close to what you have put for midApril. 

I am sorry to have led you astray with my “even if” comment.

 

that isn’t a “could” or “can” it is what already is.  (At minimal testing done still stage.) 

 

No responsible person attempting to explain the future will use words like “will” because so much is dependent upon the unpredictability of many factors.  You yourself and your own behavior is one of the unpredictable factors.  Maybe you will take actions that will tend to help with infection control or maybe not.  

It sounds like you are in this category:

Conflicting reports (PDF) surrounding an outbreak can result in skepticism about the outbreak risk, reluctance to adopt recommended infection control

 

🤷‍♀️

Edited by Pen
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1 hour ago, Bootsie said:

My concern is looking at charts without any idea of what the specifics are is more likely to induce panic.  

The majority of people who will see the chart have already seen the chart.  If the current reaction is the most panic we’re going to see, we’re in excellent shape.
 

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44 minutes ago, Pen said:

that isn’t a “could” or “can” it is what already is.  (At minimal testing done still stage.) 

 

No responsible person attempting to explain the future will use words like “will” because so much is dependent upon the unpredictability of many factors.  You yourself and your own behavior is one of the unpredictable factors.  Maybe you will take actions that will tend to help with infection control or maybe not.  

It sounds like you are in this category:

Conflicting reports (PDF) surrounding an outbreak can result in skepticism about the outbreak risk, reluctance to adopt recommended infection control

 

🤷‍♀️

As no responsible person attempting to explain the future will use words like "will" I think a responsible reader must not read it as "will".  I am simply raising questions about whether the data actually shows that this "already is."  

I am not sure what you can infer about my behavior because I am raising these questions.  

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I've been lurking through all these threads.  Today my epiphany was that the disconnect for most people in my circle is the difference between trying to prevent the virus vs. trying to flatten the curve.  It was confusing to me for awhile.  The recent numbers of cases in China, which are slowing down, don't even begin to match the flu numbers here.  So I can see why it's confusing.

It finally made more sense to my simple brain to explain it that we are aren't technically trying to prevent the virus, we are trying to slow down the spike to prevent overwhelm.  (it's the way my kids can understand it)  It's like wartime living when you aren't directly involved in the war.   But I realize it's an oversimplification.  It just helped us think better.

Edited by KeriJ
wrote in a hurry. came out wrong.
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2 hours ago, Farrar said:

Your numbers are just way off here. It’s at more than 3,000 confirmed cases today. Two days ago, it was at about 1600. So your doubling rate there is about two days. In fact, if you look at the data on Worldometer, the doubling time has been about every two days for the last bit, not every two weeks.

Some of this is because we’re talking about confirmed cases and testing has ramped up. But not all. ER docs are also talking about starting to see this same exponential growth in patients. Even accounting for the added testing, the doubling rate is nothing like two weeks.

The CDC's latest numbers are as of Friday; which are the latest provided by the CDC

WHO reports 1678 (total cases) on Saturday, which was a 414 case increase since Friday.  This would make Friday's number of cases 1264 according to WHO.

The Worldometer numbers do not seem to agree with either WHO or CDC numbers.  

I was not initially suggest that the rate is doubling every two weeks; I just trying to work through what assumptions would need to be made to get to some of the numbers people are projecting.  

 

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The thing that makes this more dangerous than the flu is the hospitalization rate, not so much the death rate right now. The flu doesn't send 10-20% to the hospital with a significant portion needing ventilation. Overwhelming the hospitals will lead to excess deaths from all causes. The ventilators we have aren't all sitting there waiting for covid-19 patients. I'd be interested to know what percent are free on an average day. Will they be deciding if they should take patients who are on ventilators now off of them to treat younger, healthier covid-19 patients?  

I couldn't get my son into the doctor for a follow up of an injury until over a week out. Normally they can see you next day. The nurse said they were overwhelmed with patients who thought they had coronavirus. I may cancel the appointment because we don't want to sit next to those people! It could be a bunch of hypochondriacs, it could be people sick with the normal flu, colds, or allergies, or it could actually be covid-19. Either way, my little doctor's office is already getting overwhelmed and people are getting less timely care. My son had a serious head injury- he's not ill with covid-19, and he's not getting the same level of care he'd get in a normal year. 

 

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37 minutes ago, Bootsie said:

As no responsible person attempting to explain the future will use words like "will" I think a responsible reader must not read it as "will".  I am simply raising questions about whether the data actually shows that this "already is."  

I am not sure what you can infer about my behavior because I am raising these questions.  

 

The hospitals in my area of Pacific Northwest where there already is community spread are already under stress.

The current case rates already are (at minimum, limited testing done) above your idea of number of cases for middle of April. 

Nothing more I can say afaik.  

I can’t know anything about you irl behavior.

 I can see and experience your behavior on this thread. 

 

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Yes I can add one thing. CDC reports it’s own numbers, not state, university, or private lab additional testing. 

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I think because vaccination companies have spread hysteria for years about things like Measles and Chicken Pox that people are not taking the Covid-19 virus seriously. Hopefully, after this, the government will rein in the vaccination marketing ploys so that when an actual emergency happens, people will believe them. I heard someone compare Covid-19 as being no different from H1N1. H1N1 had a 0.02% death rate and could not really be contracted by anyone over 35 yrs old because older people were exposed in the 70's and immune. Covid-19 has never been around before and so far has about a 4% death rate.  The media would convince you that one person with Measles is surely going to spread and kill so many and marketing departments from pharmaceuticals should videos of cute little children swinging in swings and then shows an empty swing and says this is what this illness looks like. A lot of bad can come out of this illness, but I hope the good is that the government puts an end to the pharmaceuticals and media screaming fire when there is not one.

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1 hour ago, Bootsie said:

As no responsible person attempting to explain the future will use words like "will" I think a responsible reader must not read it as "will".  I am simply raising questions about whether the data actually shows that this "already is."  

I am not sure what you can infer about my behavior because I am raising these questions.  

Anyone can draw a graph of the past through current cases in relation to total US hospital beds.  No special training needed beyond pre-algebra graphing knowledge.

No one can give precise numbers with 100% certainty of future numbers without god-like powers.  IT’s simply not a thing.

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On 3/7/2020 at 11:43 AM, Murphy101 said:

Last week, I booked a trip to Curacao for May.  Here’s hoping flu and Covid19 are done by then.

I have a lot of catching up to do on this thread. I'm only on Page 4. I don't believe that this will be done by May. I hope and pray that I'm wrong, but it is extremely unlikely. We had booked a trip to Europe for the month of June. We canceled yesterday. We have lost all the money on our flights, but there is no way that we'd be able to go. To each their own, but I don't believe that it's wise to travel at this time. People need to stop traveling until the world can mitigate the spread of this virus. It really is that simple. And this is coming from me. Our family is in the tourism business and we're already getting cancellations galore, but there are some people who are not taking heed and who continue to bring the virus to countries that didn't have them. Every single case in the Caribbean that I have seen so far has been from tourists. Flatten the curve everyone! Social distancing is key until they come out with a vaccine. 

On 3/7/2020 at 8:22 PM, Pawz4me said:

I'm thinking the author's history education was a bit lacking. Canceling the Olympics wouldn't be anything that hasn't happened before (1916-summer, 1940--summer and winter, 1944--summer and winter). 

I know. What a stupid thing to say. Who cares about the Olympics at a time like this? 

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9 hours ago, Eliana said:

It's the exponential curve that is scary - not the numbers now.  To flatten the curve requires shutting things down before the hospitals overload & there are lots of cases and deaths.  Local hospitals expect to be slammed, even with our shutdowns & are cancelling PT, elective surgeries, etc to clear the decks for incoming cases.  The impact of shutting down won't show until around 2 weeks from now, but I am hoping it makes a significant difference & that people practice serious social distancing to maximize the impact. 

 

I totally agree and here’s a (crossposted) opinion from a doctor that does too:

A social media post FB from a pediatrician in my county that’s gone viral enough to reach me :

 

 

 

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Pilar Bradshaw
on Wednesday
 
 
 

I love our community. I grew up here, and Eugene is the only place I have ever worked, and the only place I have ever called home. It’s from that place of love that I am sharing my concern today – I believe Covid-19 is an imminent threat to our community, and we are not adequately ready. 

Today, we heard that still zero cases have been identified in Lane County. And that’s wonderful news. But people need to realize a few concerning facts:
· Test kits have been hard to come by, so the public health department has used strict guidelines on who has been allowed to be tested; thus, we have very little data in our state to help us assess where we are in this pandemic; all experts agree it will get worse – we just don’t know accurately how much worse
· Although private labs like Quest are starting to allow more testing to be done, it’s still not a large number of tests that are available. For example, Quest Labs has only 1,500 test kits for the entire west coast and ours are just now being shipped to Eugene Pediatrics from Quest headquarters
· Children are vectors of this virus – many kids worldwide have experienced mild symptoms when infected with Covid-19, but they are contagious to others in the community  
· Covid-19 is a novel virus that has infected humans for only a matter of months on this planet, so the scientific community is still discovering vital information about how easily this virus spreads, how long people remain infectious after they’re sick, etc

The data from China’s experience with Covid-19 have been published in multiple prominent medical journals, including the Journal of the American Medical Association and Lancet. The China data were used by professionals at the Lane County Public Health Dept to estimate what could happen here in Lane County. The numbers were presented to doctors in the community for the first time yesterday and repeated today. 

It is possible that: 

93,000-262,000 people in Lane County will become infected
13,000-29,000 people in Lane County will need to be hospitalized
4,700-10,500 people will need to be on a ventilator machine in an ICU
2,300-5,100 people will die from Covid-19

Our medical resources in Lane County will be overwhelmed by these numbers because our hospitals run near capacity at baseline, and we don’t have enough professionals or equipment to handle this volume of sick patients. I am sharing these numbers not to make people panic—but because I believe we need to get as ready as we can, and we need to do that now. Not by panicking – by being smart and nimble.

I am personally opposed to the Oregon Health Authority, State Board of Higher Education, and public schools stated desire to remain open even when cases of Covid-19 are found in the schools. I am immensely happy that the University of Oregon closed today. More schools should follow that model in my opinion. Social distancing is our only hope of decreasing the number of sick and dead from Covid-19. I fully recognize that the decision was complex and weighed many factors, prominently including the fact that many children rely on school for two meals a day. Nonetheless, faced with a pandemic, I feel it is wise to stop gathering our children together. 

So I personally think we need to:
- Close all schools. Now.
- Stop gathering in person for meetings, church, etc
- Cancel travel plans unless they are critical
- Get prescriptions, non-perishable food, and other provisions in case someone gets sick and needs to be quarantined at our home for a number of weeks
- Stay home if you’re sick with respiratory symptoms – and don’t go out until all symptoms have resolved (even if that is a week or more after fever is gone)
- Get healthy – take your preventive medications for asthma, high blood pressure or diabetes. Your body will need to be as strong as possible if you become sick
- Wash hands, cover coughs, change clothes upon arriving home, disinfect surfaces often
- Medical providers, community leaders, non-profit agency leaders – all need to come together to mobilize in a positive way to take care of our community
- Advocate for more testing kits to be made available by any means possible; money has been allocated by the federal government for Covid-19 and a chunk of that should go to labs that can quickly tool up for testing; South Korea is way ahead of us – let’s get moving in the USA

I am grateful to the Lane County Public Health Dept, and especially Dr. Patrick Luedtke, for daily phone updates and advocacy. I recognize that they are doing the best that they can in an extraordinary situation unlike any in our recent memory. Decisions are hard, resources are limited. They are doing their best.

First responders and medical personnel are going to be needed to care for the sick. But every single person can help take care of the rest of our community. Check on elderly neighbors, support those with medical illness and social disadvantages, get food for them, help each other in every way you can if this epidemic strikes us hard. If it doesn’t, some will say we prepared for nothing – but I believe if we are spared, it will be because we got organized and prepared.

We are a community. We are smart and loving people. We can do this together.

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9 minutes ago, Negin said:

I have a lot of catching up to do on this thread. I'm only on Page 4. I don't believe that this will be done by May. I hope and pray that I'm wrong, but it is extremely unlikely. We had booked a trip to Europe for the month of June. We canceled yesterday. We have lost all the money on our flights, but there is no way that we'd be able to go. To each their own, but I don't believe that it's wise to travel at this time. People need to stop traveling until the world can mitigate the spread of this virus. It really is that simple. And this is coming from me. Our family is in the tourism business and we're already getting cancellations galore, but there are some people who are not taking heed and who continue to bring the virus to countries that didn't have them. Every single case in the Caribbean that I have seen so far has been from tourists. Flatten the curve everyone! Social distancing is key until they come out with a vaccine. 

I know. What a stupid thing to say. Who cares about the Olympics at a time like this? 

 

I am so sorry.  The airline didn't refund you?  Or let you rebook sometime in the future? 

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8 hours ago, Pen said:

 

There are calculations available based on current doubling rate.  The doubling rate must slow down.

The medical community in several areas of West Coast states is *already* getting stressed trying to convert hospital floors and wings into facilities to care for CV19 patients who have exceeded capacity of first designated CV hospital(s). 

They *already* need slowing down of case rate, like yesterday.  I don’t have links offhand , but also I have the feeling that doing one own research is more valuable than receiving a link. 

We all know that the rates reported are inaccurate, and the increases are the most inaccurate of all, and the more they increase testing, the less accurate the rise in cases is.  So we really do not know what the curve is.

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Also, I'm pretty sure that telling everyone that it's already everywhere is NOT going to make average people more careful.  They will assume they already have it and hope for the best.

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I don’t even care about the curves.

I’d personally be thrilled if everyone practiced social distancing all year and specifically during flu season.

That said it appears to me that the problem is apparently the demographic most likely to suffer the most doesn’t care about themselves as much as the younger healthier people do.  My FB is full of old people or health compromised people saying this is nuts, fake news, conspiracy, or flat out they figure if it’s their time then it’s their time and they don’t want to spend it cooped up or isolated from life happenings.  My 3 yr old’s atrium teacher is like that. Which hey I’m glad to have atrium for baby girl, but since I’m on 3 medications a day so my unusually horrible asthma can be manageable - I’m kinda thinking I’m not quite as ready to throw in my towel yet.  Not for that anyways. 😆😷

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12 hours ago, EmseB said:

I'm doing this in the sentence you quotes and not understanding what you're saying. You think the American govt knew what was happening in China before it came out as news to the rest of the world? I'm so confused. What possible reason would the US have for keeping the secret that a novel virus was killing people in Wuhan? We could have stopped the spread from China and didn't?

No, we knew what was happening HERE and downplayed it and now are suffering for it. 

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3 hours ago, mommyoffive said:

 

I am so sorry.  The airline didn't refund you?  Or let you rebook sometime in the future? 

Thank you for caring and for being so sweet.

No, not so far. We have sent them a doctor's letter with regards to our son's asthma. We're waiting to hear from them on that. 

So far, they have said that we can re-book all the way through the end of the year. If we are able to go again, it won't be until the same time period in 2021. If. And even with the change that they were offering, they were about to charge us a fee. How generous of them. Not! 

Our income will be going down from this month. We'll have to start dipping into our savings. Our family business is tourism-based. We've been getting cancellations galore. We've already had to let two employees go. It's quite unlikely that we'll be able to afford travel anytime in the near future. 

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On 3/8/2020 at 6:56 PM, Æthelthryth the Texan said:

On a side note, my biggest mystery in all of this so far is why the hell doesn't India have sky high case numbers over anywhere else? (and if Iran can test, don't tell me India can't). I'd like to know more to that story. 

My dh, who has a master's in epidemiology, noticed the same thing. This article may be on to something. Who knows? One can only hope, but, as Dr. Fauci says, "But, underline 'but', we do not know what this virus is going to do. We would hope that as we get to warmer weather it would go down, but we can't proceed under that assumption."

In the 4th paragraph of this article, if you click on the red highlighted word, "study", you'll see some fascinating charts. 

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13 hours ago, frogger said:

 

My friend who is an ER nurse had 24 hours overtime last week. We don't have a single Covid case on the hospital yet. We have no capacity up here. 😣

My ICU nurse friend is already worn out. We only have 30 ICU beds in our county. More than half are filled (with stroke, flu, heart attacks, and the things that usually fill them). We have 5 cases and 2 community transmissions. The math on that 2 and 4 weeks out is scary.

ETA: we're also an old county. Median age is 47. It's gonna get rough.

Edited by sassenach
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I am sorry about your company and travel difficulties— and son’s asthma. Do keep safe as you can!

 

11 minutes ago, Negin said:

My dh, who has a master's in epidemiology, noticed the same thing. This article may be on to something. Who knows? One can only hope, but, as Dr. Fauci says, "But, underline 'but', we do not know what this virus is going to do. We would hope that as we get to warmer weather it would go down, but we can't proceed under that assumption."

In the 4th paragraph of this article, if you click on the red highlighted word, "study", you'll see some fascinating charts. 

 

👍 love the top article especially!

tag @StellaM in case the gauze for filters is something she could use.  I would think even in 2020, Good quality gauze should be able to withstand boiling or ironing to get really clean at home. 

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1 minute ago, Pen said:

 

I am sorry about your company and travel difficulties— and son’s asthma. Do keep safe as you can!

Thank you for being so sweet and kind. 

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